Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - KANSAS KEYS at UCF: Will Jayhawks Find More Defense & Running Game Against the Knights?

Starting point is 00:00:00 Can the defense figure it out against an explosive UCF offense? And can the Jayhawks get a big win on the road? What are the keys for them doing that at UCF? You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. What's going on? Derek Johnson here. This is Locked on Jayhawks. Thanks for making it.

Starting point is 00:00:30 first listen every day and thank you the everydayers catching each and every episode of the show we are free and available anywhere you get your podcast including on our youtube page where you can like and subscribe to the show and on today's edition of l oj we are breaking out our keys for kansas coming away with a road victory against ucf how do they win how do they cover also get to our players to watch for both teams as well as player matchups that could determine who comes out on top of this one or just fun matchups in general then we'll finish up with a little fan dual friday on today's episode of the show. And this episode of Lockdown J Hawks is brought to you by Mazda.

Starting point is 00:01:06 Like our players, we sweat every detail because when you make every move count, pulling off the unexpected is only the beginning. Stay tuned later for highlights in this week's moving the game forward. Mazda move and be moved. Getting the stakes on UCF Saturday night game and check out our preview episode if you haven't already and thank you that every dayers who already had. How does Kansas win this game? How does Kansas go on the road and beat UCF?

Starting point is 00:01:32 I mean, the obvious answer is the defense plays a lot better than they did against Cincinnati or Missouri. And if it is, you know, the defense that we saw in the Fresno State and West Virginia games, I think you're going to be okay in the end. But it's hard to predict what you're going to get there. Now, if you're taking, I don't know, like, if you're viewing what's happened in some of these games as, okay, well, if Kansas is playing a quarterback who's not very good or can't throw a ton, they're going to be okay. I'm not entirely sure which side of that coin UCF lies on with some of the quarterback injuries they've had and because they haven't played the most challenging

Starting point is 00:02:10 schedule so far. But I think for me, because it's almost like control the controllables, I almost am coming into this game with the expectation that UCF has a lot of speed and some playmakers in the outside of the receiver position to where I don't know that I am expecting Kansas to have a good defensive game here. And so if that is the case, can you still find a way to win? I mean, even despite the defensive struggles against Cincinnati, they still almost won the game. And the offense played more than good enough to beat Cincinnati, should have been good enough to beat Cincinnati, but you can still go back and say, hey, if the offense doesn't

Starting point is 00:02:47 make this mistake or maybe, you know, you get more touchdowns in the red zone, maybe you do end up winning that game regardless of some of the defensive deficiencies you showed. against the Bearcats. And so that's kind of where I want to focus here. To me, Kansas wins this game if I hate to say they're perfect on offense, but as close to it as you can be. And where that has to come for me is you have to be at least equal in the turnover battle, right? You weren't against Cincinnati. You had the fumble at the goal line and they didn't have any turnovers. So that would be something where it's like, okay, if the defense is bad again, can you at least maybe force a turnover or two if you're the KU defense? And the KU offense, can you hold on to the

Starting point is 00:03:25 football a little bit better? But can you perform? form on those key downs because as good as Kansas was overall as an offense against Cincinnati, they still didn't quite have it figured out on third downs and they still didn't have it figured out in red zone situations. Right now Kansas ranks 14th in the big 12th and third down conversion rate at just 31%. They were over 50% last year. They were over 50% in 2022 as well. In 2023, they were near 50%. It's only 31% right now. That's a number that has to go up. Red zone numbers. right now Kansas is last in the big 12 in the percentage of their red zone drives that are resulting in points and you know part of that is smaller sample size earlier in the season you have

Starting point is 00:04:07 a couple turnovers in the red zone which Kansas has you think the wagner game you think of the last week against Cincinnati and you end up in a situation where you know if your defense struggling and the offense has to take advantage of every opportunity you've missed a few here there. And just the Cincinnati game in general, you end up having to kick two short field goals against the bearcats, right? If you turn one of those into a touchdown or, you know, you turn both of them into touchdown that doesn't even matter at the end of the game. And so that's where I'm looking at this UCF game. Can you start to convert third downs better? Can you perform better in the red zone? Because if the defense still hasn't come around just yet against the bearcats,

Starting point is 00:04:47 you have to win on the margins. And that's where the offense kind of comes into play. I would also say they have to handle half situations better. We're getting into our Fandle Friday. KU is the four and a half point favorite. So they expected be a one score game. And Kansas is now one and eight in their last nine one score games. They're one and six in their one score games dating back to the start of 2024. So if it ends up being a close game again, as Vegas is prognosticating, which you know, that's not the be all end all. But if it does end up being the case, you have to win on the margins. And Kansas hasn't done enough of that during some of their struggles here. That's a big reason why that is the case. They've been outscored since the start of 2024 in FBS only games.

Starting point is 00:05:30 They've been outscored 64 to 15 in the final two minutes of the first half. And those are, I mean, outside of the Baylor game last year, every game Kansas has lost. There's eight other ones, again, remove the Baylor game, eight other losses since 2024 that you would point to and say, And maybe if you wanted to get rid of the TCU loss, that was 11 points. But seven other losses that were, you know, closer games that one extra score at the end of half or not allowing an extra score at the end of half could have been the difference in you winning each and any of those football games. And that's how I view this UCF game too, where if you are going to need to win on the margins, you have to perform better. And it really does go for both the first half and the second half, perform well in the final two minutes of the game. But that first half, I'm curious if that's something that can find a, it just keeps going against Kansas.

Starting point is 00:06:24 And we'll see if that happens here. Now, for Kansas to cover the spread, right, it's one thing to win the game. And that's the most important thing for Kansas. But how do they go above and beyond that? How do they not just win the game, but they win by that point? I guess seven points or, you know, 10 points or whatever. I'm just building off of everything we just talked about, I think you have to win the turnover battle, right? one thing to be even on it, which is what I said to win the game, I think to cover the spread,

Starting point is 00:06:51 you probably want to win the turnover battle. Touchdown on every red zone trip. So instead of just saying being a little better in the red zone, where you had three drives that basically were non-touchdowns for Kansas last week, make every drive in the red zone a touchdown. And then here's the other one that we haven't touched on yet, winning the running battle. UCF's running game is more built on explosive plays. They're not really like your four yards in a cloud of dust type team. They're kind of, you're okay, two yards, zero yards, 60 yards, you know?

Starting point is 00:07:22 And so for Kansas, how can you limit that? And then on the flip side, Kansas is kind of the opposite. They're not a team that picks up a ton of 50 or 60 yard runs. There's a few that you can point to, but you look at where they rank in some of those areas and they're not a super explosive running team. But they are pretty good at, okay, two yards here, three yards here, six yards here, and just kind of keeping things moving forward. If the ultimate sum of all of that is for Kansas to outrush UCF, and that also allows you to possess the football a little bit better, keep the defense more rested against the knights, I think that's how you wind up covering the spread as well, where you can kind of play a more, I don't know, efficient game in that area.

Starting point is 00:08:06 So those are the areas that I'm kind of looking at right there. Let's get to our players to watch that next. This is locked on Jayhawks. Today's episode of the show is brought to you by Mazda. Then Mazda's moving the game forward. For those who believe it's not just about playing the game, it's about redefining it. There's moments that do more than put points on the board.

Starting point is 00:08:29 They move crowds, move culture, and keep moving the game forward. This week's moment that move the game forward is, I think it's hard because you lose the game and stuff, but I mean, Emmanuel Henderson moved the game forward twice on big time receptions. The first offensive play of the game for KU, 93-yard touchdown to Emmanuel Henderson, and then they quickly get a long touchdown in the

Starting point is 00:08:50 second half, too, to Emmanuel Henderson. So pick one of those two. When you follow what moves you, the unexpected is only the beginning. And just like there's more to every highlight, there's more to a Mazda vehicle. Mazda move and be moved. Today's episode of the show is also brought to you by DoorDash. It's almost the weekend. Time to look back. Crown this week's MVP on Who Delivered, powered by DoorDash, just like you can win every Saturday with DoorDash Street. Reeks saving more every time you order, these players delivered when it mattered most. Let's break it down. We're going to go for Kansas Bowden Groan, who had to come in, Sean Hanukkah gets hurt,

Starting point is 00:09:26 and he's already out for the UCF game, so that's unfortunate. But Groan's just found himself open a lot this year in the passing game. And he had to come in for Hanukkah. He has a big game. Five catches, over 80 yards, had to step up into an even bigger role. And now he's going to be asked to continue to do that moving forward with Hanukkah's injury. And just like Bowden Grown delivered for Kansas, DoorDash delivers your Saturdays.

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Starting point is 00:10:22 ball for KU, and that would be Calvin Clements. Clemens has not had the best past blocking games so far, if you're looking at like Pro Football Focus, for instance. I still believe Clements is going to be a really good player for KU, and he's been decent in the run blocking game. This is one of those moments where it's like, if you have a bad game, it's going to be problematic, though. UCF has two really good defense events.

Starting point is 00:10:45 on the outside. We're going to get to them as part of the players to watch on the UCF defense. A little spoiler there. But they need a good game from Clements in the past blocking game. But yeah, certainly, you know, Clement's part of the offensive line that if you want to run the football more, like he'll be a part of that. And then we're going to go to Lee Sean Williams.

Starting point is 00:11:02 Going back to what I was kind of talking about in terms of the running game, can that get going for Kansas? And is that one possible solution for Lance Leipold to try to say, hey, what if we just play more of a possession style football game? What if we try to hold on to the ball a little bit more, keep the defense off the field more, and try to control the game and kind of be a boa constrictor in that way? Like, we know we can be an explosive offense.

Starting point is 00:11:26 We've shown that we know we can throw the ball around the field. And there will be certain times that we want to unleash that, right? In certain situations, time and clock, there are going to be times that you want to unleash that. But do they try to focus a little bit more on doing, that to having the long sustaining drives in order to help in that area. And so that's where I looked at Leashon Williams. Daniel Hyshaw's out for this game.

Starting point is 00:11:48 Can Williams have a big game on the road and allow you to kind of control clock in a way? Defensive side of the ball for KU, we're going to go with Lyrick Rawls. Lerick Rawls is off to a great start to the season. Didn't have the best game against Cincinnati. He was targeted in the passing game, gave up a lot there. It was not a good game for him. But again, he had been good the first, you know, four games before that. And so the bigger sample size has been that he's been.

Starting point is 00:12:11 a really good player for KU. Can you bounce back to that? Because they need them to, right? With as much as KU's secondary as young, Lyric Rawls is one of the older players, somebody that the guys, you know, count on. He's a leader in the group. You need him to step up because there's almost like an understanding, at least to me, that when you have a young secondary, there are going to be times where a player gets burnt. There are going to be times where there's a coverage bust. Now, ideally, it wouldn't have happened. as often as it did against Cincinnati, but there's at least a little of that that you can have a little bit of grace for. And Lyric Rawls is one of those guys who is one of the

Starting point is 00:12:51 upperclassmen, the adults in the room, so to speak. You need him to get back to his winning ways. You need him to get back to having a big game because he is one of the key parts of the KU defense. Then we're going to go John John Kamara. We know that Bengali Kamara is suspended for the first half due to the targeting call he received in the second half of the Cincinnati game. And so that means that John John Kamara, who had to fill in for his absence, is going to play a lot more. Now, John John's got a good amount of playing time so far this year. Obviously, Camaro was, Bengali Kamara was injured earlier on in the season. And John John has gotten rotation steps to begin with.

Starting point is 00:13:25 And he's really gaining seasoning and stuff. And obviously he's an unbelievable athlete. He's one of the best athletes on the team, but he's still a young player. He's still just a redshirt freshman. And all of a sudden, you're going to be facing a UCF team that has athletes all over the field. I can't help but think a linebacker with the athleticism, John John Kamara, doesn't come in handy in a big way against a UCF team that does have a lot of athleticism all over the field.

Starting point is 00:13:51 So I think that'll certainly be an interesting matchup and how can he perform because, you know, you are filling in for Bengali Kamara and those are big shoes to fill and going back to the fact that UCF can be explosive in the running game, how can John John Kamara help Trey Lathen in kind of, you know, filling out on the defense side of? of the ball. UCF players to watch, offense for them. We're going to go Dwayne Thomas at the receiver position. He is UCF's leader in receiving yards and receptions. And most of his snaps have come

Starting point is 00:14:22 in the slot, which I find interesting because Kansas was hurt a lot on throws over the middle of the field last week against Cincinnati. And we know that KU safeties and nickel corners and stuff like like. Jalen Todd actually had an okay game. And Jalen Todd's had a, a solid start to the season, but they're picking on the other guys for KU. And one of those is throwing over the middle of the field. And so Thomas getting a lot of snaps in the slot becomes even more interesting there when he's already the team leader in receiving yards and receptions. So Cincinnati last week was 14 of 16 over the middle third of the field.

Starting point is 00:14:58 And they were 15 of 24 to the outer thirds, which is still pretty good considering the outer thirds sometimes are harder to complete passes to. So, you know, obviously they were doing great everywhere. but still 15 of 24, that's closer to 60%. 14 of 16 is closer to 90%. So like, KU really struggled there. Thomas, meanwhile, when you're looking at it, of his 16 catches this season,

Starting point is 00:15:21 10 of them have come over the middle of the field. So the Kansas defense, you know, wall up over the middle a little bit more. And we'll say overall UCF doesn't throw as often or as successfully over the middle as Cincinnati does, but they still will. And obviously they saw the tape against Cincinnati, so it's probably going to be more

Starting point is 00:15:37 in their playbook a little bit this week. Jaden Nixon is the other. I know their main running back is Miles Montgomery. He's been really good. Montgomery has 51 carries for 268 and a score. But the reason I pick Jada Nixon is he can be that kind of home run threat that changes the game. And he's one of those guys that is very boom or bust. So he's got 16 carries 226 yards. That's 14 yards per carry. And the immediate reaction for me when I saw that the first time was, why does he not have more carries? Well, when you look at the game logs for him, you have a first game where he had two carries for negative six yards. Then you have another game in there where he goes five carries for 10 yards. So those are very bad games. But then in the other two games, he had four for 156 and he had against Kansas

Starting point is 00:16:23 state five carries for 66 yards. So he's either going to have the best game or the worst game against Kansas is basically what I see there. But in a game where, you know, which team can find the explosive runs is going to be huge. He's someone that KU needs to bottle up for the few touches that he's going to have the opportunity to get. Defensive side of the ball for UCF, Malachi Lawrence and Najeeleek Kennedy.

Starting point is 00:16:45 Those are both of their defense events. Malachi is a 72 graded player on pro football focus. He has a whopping 14 pressures. That's a really good number there. Two sacks, and he's also batted down two passes. So he's getting his arms up there when he's not getting to the quarterback. Kelly, meanwhile,

Starting point is 00:17:03 has less pressures, still fine at seven, but he has more than double the total tackles. So he's been better in run defense. He still has one and a half sacks. He has an interception too. And he has a gargantuan 80 grade on pro football focus. So this is a really good defensive end duo. Now, again, do keep in mind some of the stats and grades are obviously going to look better considering UCF's strength of schedule ranks outside of the top 100 right now. But those two are going to make life tough for the KU offensive tackles. And they are coming off a game against when they did play a better opponent in Kansas State, those two guys had to combine six pressures against the Wildcats. So when I look at UCF and I see those two defense events,

Starting point is 00:17:42 that's going to be key. That goes back though. Do I think, you know, if Kansas can run the football, you get those defense events playing on their heels a little bit more than playing on in a situation where if they're just expecting pass all the time, then it's going to be even tougher for the offensive line, for Jayland Daniels, and the KU passing attack. Our player matchups here, these are just matchups we think could be really pivotal or just really good matchups. The first one is UCF left guard, which, by the way, this is not a joke. His first name is Guard. Like, I mean, typecasting right there.

Starting point is 00:18:12 Are we serious? His name is Guard. Memelar. He has a 75 pass block grade. And the reason why, he's allowed zero sacks. He's allowed just one pressure all season. He obviously is going to be facing the KU defensive tackles a lot. We know that the KU defense tackles are strength for the KU defense and they run about five

Starting point is 00:18:31 or six deep. So from that perspective, that'll be a really good matchup between both teams. And the UCF offense line isn't great. He's maybe the best. It's him or one other guy who would be in competition there. And then I would say just pick a corner against Emmanuel Henderson. So Eman had his best game against Cincinnati. He's been a great talent so far this year for KU on the outside and sometimes in the slot,

Starting point is 00:18:53 over 400 receiving yards so far. UCF's two outside corners, Antion Jackson and Jaden Bellamy, They're both rated pretty highly on Pro Football Focus. Both are in that 77 to 78 range on PFF, which is very good. Both have very strong coverage rates. Again, you look at the schedule and maybe that makes things a little bit interesting. So if we just look to the Kansas State game to get an idea, Bellamy was only targeted once.

Starting point is 00:19:18 It was an incompletion. So does that tell you on tape Kansas State saw him as the bigger threat, didn't want to throw at him? And maybe that means he covers Henderson. I don't know. Jackson, meanwhile, was targeted five times in the K-State game. He did give up four catches, though just 35 yards to seven yards per target isn't like huge number necessarily, but, you know, that is a high completion percentage. So interesting to see how they're going to line those guys up, who gets the matchup, how real their early season performance is.

Starting point is 00:19:44 And if they can handle Emmanuel Henderson, if Emmanuel Henderson can handle them, I think that's going to be certainly a very good matchup both ways. All right, let's finish up with a little fan duel Friday. This is locked on Jayhawks. Today's episode of the show is brought to you by Peloton. Peloton is shaping the future of fitness with the brand new Peloton Cross Training Tread Plus, powered by Peloton IQ. It's the most advanced equipment yet designed to give you real-time guidance and endless ways to move, whether you're running, lifting, or cross-training with your favorite instructors. This is training reimagined. Peloton is built for breakthroughs with tools that help you plan, stay motivated, and reach peak performance.

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Starting point is 00:21:06 on Twitter or our show account at LO underscore Jayhawks. We're posting clips and all sorts of stuff over there. We will have a postcast episode late into your Saturday night. I got some broadcasting duties Saturday. So we'll get it up late Saturday for the KUUCF game right here with Locked on Jayhawks. So the spread right now on Fandul is Can Kansas minus 4.5. They are minus 190 on the money line, which honestly, both of these things are very similar to the KU Cincinnati game. And then the over under 54 and a half. Actually, at one point, I think all of those numbers applied for the Cincinnati game. This one on the road, now UCF is not coming off a buy like Cincinnati was. I also think Cincinnati's better than UCF, but playing on

Starting point is 00:21:51 the road makes it tougher in that regard. I'll be honest, I have a hard time taking either of those right now given how like for kansas defensively it's either been the best or the worst you know the defense is either looked awesome or horrible it hasn't really looked in between so it's hard for me to bet a total because i feel like you want to bet the alt total it's like you either want to bet the alt under where it's like under 45 and a half or something where it's like oh the defense is going to play great or you want to bet the all over where it's like oh the defense isn't going to stop them and we're going to go over 65 points or whatever it's like i don't know i feel like 54 and a half is hedging it's going to be like way over or way under it'll be one of the two but i don't know which one so i'm kind of

Starting point is 00:22:31 avoiding that i also don't really know where to go with this team i i do think there is a level of desperation that kansas should play with to win this game if they want to you know be bowl eligible and accomplish their goals and stuff um at the same point in time UCF's coming off a loss too and they're playing at home so like they're going to be desperate for a win also so i have a tough time kind of paying how that goes specifically um now as far as like favorite prop bets When you look at touchdown scores, I feel like all year the touchdown scores have been juiced down where there's like no value anymore in the touchdown scores for KU. I don't know. Like Leashon Williams is minus 175.

Starting point is 00:23:10 He didn't get one last week. Manuel Henderson is down to minus 125. Cam Pickett hasn't like caught more than one pass in a game. Obviously, he's playing through injury stuff. So that's why. But he's like plus 115. I feel like all the touchdown bets are juiced down. So I'm at a point now where I'm just like, I mean, maybe if you, I bowed and.

Starting point is 00:23:26 growing that's probably the best one if you're looking for touch on bet plus 240 for bone and growing that's probably the best odds there for somebody uh you look at the passing stats jalen daniels at 231 and a half tavin jackson's at 180 and a half that would be a number i would feel comfortable going over after we saw the k u pass defense last week but jackson's playing through an injury so what happens if he takes a hit and then he's out after the second drives that's probably something i would avoid there uh you look at the receiving props manual henderson at 57 and a half can't pick it at 31 and a half. I'm waiting for more guys to go up. I'll be curious to see what like Bowen-Growens is for KU, but I don't know, Henderson of 57 and a half. The trend he's on

Starting point is 00:24:07 right now would say kind of go over on that. Player rushing yards interested that Lishon Williams isn't up there yet. Miles Montgomery, 58 and a half for UCF. Jalen Daniels is a 41 and half. So he had, what, 55 against Cincinnati? That might be one that I'm kind of interested in. again, if KU wants to play more of a ball control offense, but the thing that sucks about taking quarterback rushing props is in the college game, sacks count for negative. Now, he's only been sacked four times this year. So let's say he has sacked one time and he loses seven yards. Can you pick up another 60, you know, whatever 60 or 49 yards elsewhere if you're Jayland

Starting point is 00:24:42 Daniels? So I don't know. Honestly, like there's nothing that really jumps off the page. I guess I would be going Bowden Grown for the touchdown bet. And then I'm just waiting to see what like Leashon Williams, will they add Bryce and Canty, will they add like Bowden Grown to the receiving Yords ones? Like those would be ones that I might be interested in in doing one way or another. But let's put together a little parlay with some of those to see what comes up.

Starting point is 00:25:05 So if we do a Bowden Grown, anytime touchdown, and we do alt passing yards for Jalen Daniels. So instead of getting up to the 230, let's just say he gets up to 175, played a little safe there. and then we'll just make this a Jalen Daniels continued parlay. We'll say he gets up to 25 rushing yards. You put those three together, 175 in the air, 25 in the ground, growing touchdown, that's plus 387. So we'll make that, I guess, our parlay of the day without complete player props all around.

Starting point is 00:25:36 All right, that'll do it for this episode of Lockdown Jayhawks. You can find our show anywhere you get your podcast, including on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe to the show. See you over the weekend for a little KUUCF recap right here on L-OJ.

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - KANSAS KEYS at UCF: Will Jayhawks Find More Defense & Running Game Against the Knights?

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