Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - KOHL ROSARIO TIME? Starting 5, Rotation & Minutes Projection 3.0 for Kansas Jayhawks Basketball
Episode Date: October 15, 2025Kansas Jayhawks Basketball: Projected Lineup and Rotation BreakdownWho will lead the Jayhawks on the court this season? Derek Johnson unveils his starting five prediction and minute-by-minute rotation... analysis.Dive into the potential impact of versatile guard Darryn Peterson, whose 6'10" wingspan could reshape KU's defensive strategy. Johnson explores how Bill Self might leverage a roster brimming with flexibility, from Flory Bidunga's dominant post presence to the battle for guard and wing minutes between Melvin Council, Elmarko Jackson, Jayden Dawson and Kohl Rosario. Get the inside scoop on how KU's rotation could evolve, including the crucial "spot minutes" that could make or break close games.Will this projected lineup carry the Jayhawks to Big 12 glory? Listen now for expert insights on Kansas Basketball's path to success.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!SupplyHouseJoin the free TradeMaster program today and score serious perks like priority shipping, lower prices, and a dedicated support line. Visit https://www.supplyhouse.com/apply-for-trademasterto sign up for free and use promo code SHCOLLEGE5 for 5% off your first order. WayfairGet organized, refreshed, and back to routine for way less. Head to https://Wayfair.com right now to shop all things home. PelotonLet yourself run, lift, flex, and push forward. Explore the new Peloton Cross Training Tread+ today at https://www.onepeloton.com. Rugiet150,000 men have made the switch →https://Rugiet.com/LOCKEDONCOLLEGEUse code LOCKEDONNFL to get 15% off your order! DoorDashWith DoorDash Streaks, you save every Saturday you order — stack it up all season and you could save up to $250. Order this Saturday. Keep the streak alive. Fuel your gameday — only with DoorDash. Terms apply. Promo period through 11/18.MazdaIt’s the small details that make the big plays. And just like there’s more to every player, there’s more to a Mazda vehicle. Mazda. Move and Be Moved. GametimeToday's episode is brought to you by Gametime. Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONCOLLEGE for $20 off your first purchase. Terms and conditions apply.Monarch MoneyTake control of your finances with Monarch Money. Use code LOCKEDONCOLLEGE at https://www.monarchmoney.com/lockedoncollege for 50% off your first year.FanDuelToday's episode is brought to you by FanDuel. Football season is around the corner, visit the FanDuel App today and start planning your futures bets now.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN)
Transcript
Discussion (0)
It's almost lighting out in the fog.
Let's get to another minutes.
Rotation, starting line of projection.
How's it going to look for KU and Bill South this year?
You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks.
Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day.
What's going on?
Derek Johnson here.
This is Locked on Jayhawks.
Thanks for making it to your first listen every day.
to the everydayers catch in each and every episode of the show.
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including on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe.
And on today's edition of LOJ,
we are doing another, our third edition of the offseason
of a KU basketball starting lineup,
rotation and minutes projection before the season
as this Friday coming up is late night in the fog.
We'll also get to some of the latest news on today's episode of the show.
Let's start right there predicting the starting five for this Kansas
basketball team and where is the competition for the starting lineup here i think first of all you
have to get into the lock section of this conversation and which players on the roster are likely
locks to be in the starting lineup well i think darren peterson is a very obvious one there right
therein peterson is a you know lock of a starter right um and i i think um you look at florida
Badunga the same way.
I think it's a different, like, level of player.
Like, those are your possible All-American players.
But in terms of the scarcity at the position and the guys you're competing with and the
lack of other, like, true wings on this roster, I also view Trey White as a roster
or a starting five lock for KU.
Now, again, like, I think Darren Peterson and Trey White, like, those are very different,
like, players and what your expectations are.
but I think both of them, my view, is starting five locks.
So that basically means Trey White at the four, Florida Bidunga at the five.
So there's your starting front court, essentially.
And then Darren Peterson on the offensive end, starting at the point guard, like he's going to be a primary initiator.
He's going to be the guy primarily with the basketball in his hands, making actions happen.
Defensively, I think Darren Peterson is probably going to be more of a two or three.
because he is, you know, 6-5 with like a 6-10 wingspan,
you're going to be able to play him on twos and threes at the other end.
And in fact, I even think there could be a world out there
where offensively there are moments where Darren Peterson is the one,
but defensively he's guarding the opposing four-man.
That would not shock me at all.
And that actually allows you to get away with playing certain lineups
where if you do have like Darren Peterson, I don't know,
El Marco Jackson, Melvin Council, and Jaden Dawson, or Cole Rosario, where it's essentially
four guards out there, and you think of that as like, oh, could Rosario or Dawson, that wouldn't
work out them playing the four, but it would be okay because it would be offensively, you have
four guards out there, but defensively, Peterson with a six-ten wingspan would just handle the
opposing foreman if their four-man was more of a wing. Now, if they're playing more of a traditional
big four-man, then in that situation, it's maybe Bryson-Tilleron, or Samis Calderon, if it's not
Trey White out there, right? So that's a lot of lineup, flexibility and versatility.
But that leaves you two spots available in the starting lineup. And we've had lots of
conversations this off season. Where could that go for Kansas? I think at different points,
we've projected different things. I think at some points, it's been Melvin Counsel and
Lamarco Jackson. I think at other points, it's been, I don't know, Melvin Council,
or El Marco and Jaden Dawson. And I think the sexy one, the trending one, it feels like right now,
is to project Cole Rosario to be starting. Now, let's break this down a little bit more. I think
with those two guard positions, one of them could wind up being another, like, primary ball handler,
somebody that, you know, we know Bill Self likes to play lineups where you have kind of two point
cards essentially in there at once.
And that would be Darren Peterson along with one of El Marco Jackson or Melvin Council,
whichever ends up being the case.
Now, is there a chance that both of them earn a starting spot in the lineup?
And it'd be similar to KU, you know, kind of playing those three lead guards that we've seen at times
for KU.
I remember we saw it a little bit with like, was it Dwan Harris, Joe Yesavu, and Bobby Peddeford?
That one probably not as talented of a three guard as you'd compare to like the 08 team, obviously.
But again, like that would be another example, Mario Chalmers, Russ Rob and Sharon Collins when they were out there together or, you know, pick your kind of three guard lineup that KU was shown over the years at different points in time.
Bill Self will go to that and I think we'll see that for certain minutes.
I don't know if that's going to be the starting lineup though.
And part of the reason why is I think from the shooting aspect,
if it's a melon counsel more of like a 30% three-point shooter like a marco jackson's a freshman
was 27% maybe he's up to 30 32 this year who knows your best shot at three-point shooting
besides sarin peterson is one of jaden dawson or col rosario and so having that maximized out
there having the best spacing possible probably involves one of them starting but then again
they have kind of steered away from the shooting with how they've built this roster so maybe
they just all they do care about is the defense, the athleticism, that's going to matter more.
We will wait and see.
But point being, I remain open to the possibility.
That could be the starting lineup, but it's not going to be my pick right now.
And then if you're getting down to that competition between Melvin Council versus L.
Marco Jackson, I think that Jackson is somebody who I, I think we're just all kind of waiting
on like, what are you going to, what are you going to see from him this year?
Because you don't totally know.
He played his freshman, played a lot as a freshman.
But part of that was by necessity because that team was not deep.
at all there were some injuries and if he would have been on a better team how many minutes would he
played would have been closer to 10 12 you know 15 minutes per game as opposed to the 18 minutes
per game he's playing where he's getting some starts now the question is did the game slow down
for him because athletically he's always been there but it was just a matter of if the game
slows down for him and then he comes off the bad season ending injury it sounds like he's been
able to overcome that well at least some of the comments in the offseason which sometimes those
can be overblown. So we'll wait and see there. With counsel, what we do know and what we know
that Bill Self likes is guys who are good defenders, guys who have that kind of, you know,
junkyard dog in them, that dog like mentality that we know Melvin Council has and or I guess
mentally and physically tough. And I think honestly even more mentally tough than anything. And it seems
like Melvin Council is a lot of those things. And then you look back to the idea that, you know,
Bill Self, when he finds somebody he likes, he's going to play big minutes.
I think there's a very real scenario.
And the idea, too, like, El Marco Jackson's a good defender, too.
At least he was as a freshman.
The idea of playing Melbourne counsel next Peterson is that, you know, a lot of times in the
college game, a lot of the better teams you're going to face might have like a really good
point guard.
And going back to the idea that Peterson with 610 wing spin, you might have Peterson guarding
twos, even at certain times, fours on the other team, if it's more of a wing four.
Okay, who's going to be your primary defender if the other team has like a good
scoring guard. Like I think of BYU, for instance. I mean, they have a lot of good players on
BYU, but Rob Wright is a good scoring guard. You think of Texas Tech. Christian Anderson's kind of
a do-it-all and can score at the guard position, although he's a little bit bigger of a guard,
so maybe that would be an assignment for Darren Peterson. But like Houston, you think of it with
Emmanuel Sharp, who's, I don't know, is he more of an off-guards? That'll be interesting.
But like, point being, do you have a guard who can, you know, take the opposing team's best
perimeter player if it's if it's more of a a smaller guard a six one six two six three guard
and i think that's what council provides being next to darren peterson in addition to the
pushing the pace and transition so i would go with council as the the starting guard next to peterson
and then that leaves one spot again do you go to el marco jackson who's the experience shooter you
bring over from loyola chicago or do you go to col rosario who is kind of that sexy pick right now
about possibly being that fifth starter right now i am going to go col rosario i have been shifted enough by
by the hype, by the, I don't know, constant conversation coming around about him.
There's just a lot there that is reminiscent of Johnny Furphy in terms of not necessarily
the player. Furfee's much taller than Cole Rosario is. Both good athletes, though,
both probably streaky three-point shooters. But just in terms of the sense of you were a
player who reclassified up a year to come to KU after you blew up kind of in the offseason
and started to really rise up those ranks.
Now, with Furfie, it took some time.
It took till like January until he was a starter.
And part of that was injury related as well.
But this team doesn't have a Kevin McCuller on the roster at the wing position in front
of you.
And so I think there's a chance that Rosario, too, in the vein of like Christian Brown,
again, you go to Christian Brown and he was playing a lot as a freshman.
But also this team doesn't have an, you know, O'Chag Baji and Marcus Garrett in front of them on the wing to prevent, like, if you put freshman year, you're Christian Brown on this year's team, he's starting.
And instead of playing 18 minutes off the bench on the 2019-20 team, he's probably starting.
And so that's where I get with Cole Rosario, where I'm like, okay, you're a, you make a lot of hustle place, you're a good rebounding guard.
Those are things Bill Self's going to like.
defensively, like, I think there's going to be some ups and downs because freshmen just tend
to be ups and downs. But I do think he's been enough of a defensive playmaker, like getting
steals and blocks and stuff, that he's going to have some good moments. Honestly, I think there's
some, forget the shooting. Grady Dick was like another level of shooter of what we're talking
about here. And I think Rosario is going to be more of a streaky shooter. But in terms of
Grady Dick, besides the shooting, what did Grady Dick do well? He was not the best defender,
but he was an opportunistic defender, good steal numbers. He was a good rebounder. I think
there's going to be some similarities there for Cole Rosario. I'm going to go Rosario starting
there at the three. So we got Peterson and counsel as your guards, Rosario kind of as your guard
wing, Tray White as your wing four man, and Flory as your starting five. What about the rest of the
rotation? How do the minutes crack out? Let's get to that next. This is Locked on Jayhawks.
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as well.
So continue on with our rotation projection.
That's our starting five with Peterson, Counsel Rosario White.
and Bedunga. From there, it's like, okay, you need a backup big man. Paul MBO would be the,
the candidate there. I know Bryson Tiller, like potentially, you know, could Tiller beat him out
and could Tiller, you know, take the back of five minutes and take some minutes of the four,
entirely possible. But I would assume Mbio would be that backup big man. So that's your sixth,
you know, player among, you typically think Bill's off eight man rotation, basically. And then maybe
at some points it's nine, but once it gets whittled down, it's probably seven to eight.
seventh with the eighth guy being more, you know, limited minutes.
But the NBA would be your back of big.
And then you look at Marco Jackson and Jaden Dawson.
And I think that's going to be a really important, I don't know, competition or how they do over the course of season.
Because like I'm saying, I think in the early portion of the season, it will be an eight-man rotation with a ninth man getting in there, right?
Maybe even a 10th man getting in there for sporadic minutes, at least in the early portion of the season.
Once things get whittled down, whether it's the games that Bill Self, like, really goes to the guys he trusts.
So maybe some of the big games, once you get to big 12 play, once you get to March Madness,
then it's going to be more of whichever of El Marco Jackson or Jaden Dawson or one of your other players,
it's going to basically be a seven-man rotation in the eighth man.
Maybe the eighth man is Jaden Dawson to come in for eight minutes a game just to shoot a couple threes, right?
Or maybe it's O'Marco Jackson just to come in and hound somebody 94 feet up the floor.
Things will whittle down.
But at the beginning of the year, we'll say that O'Marco and Jaden Dawson, both part of the rotation along with Mbilla,
that would be eight.
and then that ninth man that's kind of playing sporadic minutes,
it could be Smeese Calderone, it could be Bryson Tiller.
Like I said, maybe it's even the ninth guy
gets sporadic minutes and the 10th guy is getting in there a few minutes every game, right?
I think those are the guys you look at.
And obviously, there's still Jamari McDowell and Gia and Gala.
I think both those guys are more going to be your late game minute guy
or just like, hey, Bill Self's mad at somebody making a mistake,
he's just going to give them a shot and throw them out there for two minutes
or like whatever that it's a bean or, you know,
but still enough time, I guess, that I don't know,
couple weeks here to try to change that around for some of those guys. But that would be my guess
right now. Now, as far as how I have the minutes kind of paired out here, so I have Darren Peterson
playing 35 minutes per game. I have him getting, again, this just goes back to like semantics because
I technically, it doesn't really matter where I put him. I technically gave him five minutes at the
four and gave him 30 minutes at the one. It just depends how you view it. Because if you're viewing
what Darren Peterson's position is offensively, when he is out there, he is
always going to be the one. He's always going to be the guy with the ball in his hands the
most of the time and the primary focal point of the KU offense. So realistically,
all 35 of those minutes are at the one. But if you view it as, you know, there's the saying
you are what you guard. And if you are what you guard, I think Peterson's going to spend the
majority of his time guarding twos, threes, and maybe when Trey White is not out there, if you want
to play a lineup again with Peterson three guards, you can use Peterson. If the opposing team has a, you know,
six six seven six eight wing playing the four you can use peterson to guard him at the four and then in
that situation you would say okay peterson's getting all 35 of his minutes at the two three or four
because that's who he's guarding defensively so just for semantics that's kind of how i have it
but um is he going to be the four offensively no no definitely not it's just kind of a semantics thing
for how i have those uh kind of minutes filtered out now i have uh for the backup 10 point guard minutes
I have it split between Melvin Council and O'Marco Jackson.
Then I have a council playing 25 minutes.
It's basically the off guard, the two, whatever, with the five is the backup one.
So counsel for a total of 30, you could convince me that's going to go up.
Look at what Melvin Council has done, is St. Paul Adventure and Wagner in terms of 36, 37, 38 minutes per game.
Now, it's different.
You're at Kansas.
But Bill Self, if he finds a guy he likes and he can take a big minute load,
Bill Self will gladly give him 35 minutes.
So it would not shock me if counsel's playing 34 minutes per game.
It really wouldn't.
I have O'Marco for 20, which that's been one of the toughest ones for me to kind of figure out.
Like you can convince me 15, you could convince me 25.
I think there's going to be kind of a wide range with getting minutes at the one and two,
but I do have him at 20 overall coming off the bench.
Cole Rosario is a starter I have for 24 minutes.
I have all those minutes at the three.
But again, you could kind of switch some of this stuff around.
You could say he gets some of those minutes at the four technically if there's a line up with
Peterson counsel, El Marco and Rosario, or Peterson counsel, Doss and Rosario,
even though Peterson's defending the four,
maybe offensively Rosario is the four in that situation, right?
And you could say that would kind of be the case,
but 24 minutes, again, that's kind of a tough one to pay.
You could say 10 minutes, you could say 28 minutes for Cole Rosario.
It's going to be very interesting.
And maybe he's one of those guys where the minutes, you know, rises as the season goes on.
I could absolutely see that being the case.
I have Jaden Dawson playing backup three minutes essentially,
but again, you can kind of move these around.
Realistically, here's the best way to put it.
If KU is playing too big basketball, you view the amount of minutes they're playing too big basketball as cutting into the four, okay?
Every other minute that's at the one, two, three, and four is some combination of Peterson, counsel, Jackson, Dawson, Rosario, Trey White.
I don't know if I've gone over some of these names, right, but like, you get what I'm saying.
Like, I guess Simis Calderon, too, that they all can kind of mesh together based on, hey, Peterson can defend force or Trey White can defend.
force or counsel can defend ones or he can defend twos or Rosario can defend twos or threes or
Dawson can defend twos or threes or Amarko can defend one through three that it makes it a little
more switchable that this isn't as like sticky to be like yes you're specifically at the point
guard spot but this is just how we worked out the minutes nonetheless so Dawson I have for 16 minutes
and again that's a guy that you know I could see playing eight minutes per game I could see playing 25
minutes per game this is very difficult to kind of I think work some of these out outside of
really, to meet Peterson, counsel, I guess, White and Bedunga.
I have Trey White playing 30 minutes per game, all at the four position.
I don't really think there's a world where we see Trey White at the three.
I guess, I don't know, maybe that's not true.
Because if you do see a handful of minutes of two big basketball, where it's Tiller
at the four, or Calderon at the four, and Floree or Mbia at the five, or if they even play
two centers next to each other with Mbia and Florey, you know, what are the odds that at least
some of those come with Trey White at the three.
I think it would be in KU's best interest if they do play any two big basketball this
year, especially if it's in Bia next to Bidunga, they need to maximize shooting at the
one through three.
And that would probably be like Peterson, Rosario, and Dawson.
So if you're going to play that lineup, I think those are the three guys you need out there.
Now, how often will that happen?
I don't know, but it definitely is something that's interesting.
So I think the majority of his minutes are going to come at the four.
And then, like I said, I have Darren Peterson for some minutes there at the four,
but realistically, it's just kind of a placeholder.
At the center, I have Florida Bado get in 25 minutes.
And that's one where I've struggled with,
could he be a 22 minute per game guy?
Could he be a 28 minute per game guy?
Let's not forget.
He played 25 minutes per game in the games he started last year when KJ Adams was out.
And that's next to Hunter Dickinson.
Hunter's gone now.
Could he play 28 minutes, especially if he gets the foul numbered down,
which typically guys do in their second year?
That's entirely possible.
And then I have Paul Mbia kind of behind him getting 10 minutes per game.
But again, if Mbia,
is going to play next to Florey for moments.
That's going to boost the minute per game numbers.
It just depends how raw he is and how much you want to get out there.
So if you're adding it all up, you might be thinking, okay, well, you're a little short
on minutes here.
There's still 10 minutes to give over.
I talk about this all the time.
I think it's a smart thing when you're doing these minute projections to just leave out
some minutes.
And essentially, I'm giving those to spot minutes because what ends up happening is literally
like, even if this is your typical eight-man rotation, there ends up being other minutes
to other guys over the course of the season could be injury could be foul trouble could be somebody
didn't play well could be somebody practiced well and they deserved at least one throw out there from
Bill's self there's a lot of different reasons that this happens and so typically over the course
of the season I've looked at this in some years past it's like some years are 10 11 12 8 minutes per
game on average somewhere in those ranges of minutes going to the guys that are not typically
part of the rotation essentially so I'm leaving 10 minutes out for spot minutes and that could mean
that, you know, you get 10 minutes per game from Bryson Tiller.
That could mean you get 10 minutes per game from Samis Calderon.
That could mean you get six minutes per game from Tiller and four minutes per game from Calderon.
That could mean one specific game.
You get eight minutes from Bryson Tiller and two minutes from Samis Calderon.
Or you get 10 minutes from Samis Calderon in one game and then 10 minutes from Jamari McDowell in another game.
That's kind of how those minutes end up working a little bit more.
And you can even shave off and say, hey, maybe it ends up being eight spot minutes.
And now Trey White's playing 32 minutes instead of 30.
So that is my minutes projection for KU basketball 3.0.
We'll try to get a 4.0.
I don't know if we'll do it before the Louisville game or wait until after the exhibition before the start of the season.
But it's certainly very interesting with KU basketball because I still think a lot of like rotation spots and just how many minutes these guys are going to get, certainly up for grabs for KU.
All right.
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So some of the latest news,
we went over some of the game time stuff like KUK stayed at 11 a.m.
the other day.
How about another update on the KU Women's soccer team?
They're now sitting in 9, 3 and 2 on the season.
They are 3 and 3 in conference play.
Since we last talk to you,
they defeated Iowa State last Friday 3 to 1.
Their next game, our match comes on Thursday.
They're going to be back at home against West Virginia.
That'll be at 6 o'clock over at Rockchalk Park.
And then back home, this upcoming Sunday,
toast Cincinnati at Sunday at one that also over at Rockchalk Park and then they're on the road
at BYU and at Utah for a two-game stretch next week. For KU Women's Volleyball, they are off to
now a 13 and 7 record. They're four and two in conference play. They've won three straight matches.
So I think last time we talked to you, they just lost to 12-ranked TCU after beating Arizona,
after losing in five at home to Arizona State. And then they won at Baylor, top 15 opponent,
in five sets. And that was a big moment because they lost all the
these, you know, tough matches to ranked opponents in five sets.
And that kind of feels like, okay, the pendulum is starting to swing the other way.
Well, the schedule lightened up the next match with Texas Tech.
They won in straight sets, 3-0.
Iowa State's usually got a solid team.
They ended up winning that one at home in four sets on Friday as Ray Bichard was inducted
into the Hall of Fame.
And that was cool, or it was announced he's going to be.
And that was cool that he was honored there.
So next up for KU Volleyball, they're on the road on Thursday.
They're going to be playing at Houston on 7 p.m.
them on Thursday. And then they get the return trip, a little time off. They get the weekend
off. The return trip against that very strong TCU side that beat them on the road down
at Fort Worth back in Lawrence on Wednesday, October 22nd at 6 o'clock. So home crowd will be
pumping for that one. And then it is the big time game at Allen Fieldhouse against Kansas
State on Friday, October 24th at 8 o'clock. Super excited to see what that looks like over at
Allen Fieldhouse. And that's certainly going to be a lot of fun for KU volleyball playing inside
A.F.H. All right, that'll move
for this episode of Lockdown Jayhawks. You can find our show
anywhere at your podcast, including on our YouTube
page. Again, plenty is coming at you. Next
week, we got Big 12 Media Days. We have
KU basketball against Louisville
next Friday. We got late night in the fog this Friday.
Next week is KUK State Week as well.
So you're going to want to be subscribed to the show.
We're going to have a ton of content coming out
and should be a lot of fun to talk about all those things
coming up next week as well as the rest of
this week. Then I'll do it for the show on
Locked on Jayhawks. See you next time.
