Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - KU Football 2022 Season Prop Bets

Episode Date: August 30, 2022

How many touchdowns will Jalon Daniels throw for Kansas football? How much will Devin Neal rush for? Will Lonnie Phelps eclipse Kyron Johnson's numbers? How many wins will KU have? Plus props for the Tennessee Tech game and more with Nick Schwerdt.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!LinkedInLinkedIn jobs helps you find the candidates you want to talk to, faster. Post your job for free at Linkedin.com/lockedoncollege Terms and conditions apply.Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKEDON15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnlineBetOnline.net has you covered this season with more props, odds and lines than ever before. BetOnline – Where The Game Starts! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On today's Locked on Jayhawks, we're joined by Nick Schwert to go over some fun prop bets ahead of the Kansas football season. I'm Derek Johnson. You can hear me as well on Rock Chalk Sports Talk, Monday through Fridays from 3 to 6 on KLWN in Lawrence. Thanks for making Locked on Jayhawks your first listen every day. We are free and available wherever you get your podcasts. On today's edition of Locked on Jayhawks, we're joined by Nick Schwert once again,

as he joins us every Tuesday here. We're going to go over some fun prop bets we've created for the KU football season upcoming and the first game as well against Tennessee Tech. I don't know if you saw, I don't have this on there, Nick, but the opening line for the game, some sites it's opened up at minus 28, others it's been like minus 30. I don't know how you felt when you saw that, but I was pretty alarmed at seeing a number that big next to Kansas. You know, that's really funny because earlier this morning,

just for full disclosure, we're recording this on Monday night, and this morning I got to work and I was joking around with a couple of the guys, Cody and Alex, I do the show with. And obviously the line wasn't out yet. And I was just sort of thinking, I was like, what do you think the line's going to be for week one? And guys were guessing, like one of the guys said six and a half. One of the other guys said, you know, 13 or I was like, you know,

I think it'd be like 17 or 20. Because Tennessee Tech, they're an FCS program. They're not a great FCS program at that. So this should be somewhat of a cakewalk. When I saw 30, I think that was an offshore book. So I don't know if that's an official line. They had one of the onshore had 28. Okay. That's a lot, Derek. that's a lot of points for a team that historically speaking hasn't scored a lot of points as of late so i

get it like there's a discrepancy between fps and fcs and maybe this will be like a Rhode Island sort of beatdown, but I'll tell you this much. I will not be taking Kansas minus 28 and a half, 30 and a half, whatever that number is, purely off principle. I hope I'm wrong. I hope it's a 50-point win by KU. But that's a big number for a team that I haven't seen win many blowout games over the last 15 years. Yeah, we'll get into this as one of the props, but outside of the Texas game last year,

the most points that Kansas scored in a game was 33. So now if you're looking at, hey, can you get to 45? And then you still got to hold them to two touchdowns or less for a defense that gave up over 40 points per game. So I wouldn't be touching it, but I know a lot of people are going to be, hey, sports betting is now legal in Kansas as of this Thursday, and then they're going to want to bet on KU, and I think that might be a bit of a sucker. I disagree. I think we – see, here's the thing.

I think that a lot of Kansas fans desperately want Kansas to be good at football, but you can be delusional for a couple years, like in 2010, 2011, 2012. You're like, okay, it's been a rough couple years, but we'll get back on track. You hire a new coach. You're like, okay, well, you know, talent discrepancy, but this guy will get it right. After 12 years, dude, I don't think there are a ton of delusional fans out there. They're like, yep, this is the year. This is the year that Kansas is back. I don't believe that there were a lot of people on September 1st at noon that are going to be rushing to the sports book to say, let me hammer, let me risk it all for Kansas minus 30. There are a few,

there are a few people like that, but you cannot, after 12 years of it like you have to recognize what is right in front of your face which is that this team has not ever met expectations i believe in lance leifel i believe in this coaching staff they're going to get it right but i'm not taking kansas at minus 30 and i don't think there are many people out there that are dying to take kansas minus 30 i just think it's going to be a thing all these people have signed signed up. They get their free money, and it's like, I'll just throw something on Kansas, make the game more entertaining. But we'll see. All right, I do want to get into the prop bets here.

The first one I have, Jalen Daniels related. He threw for seven touchdowns last season at the end of the year. That was basically in three and a half games. You extrapolate that out, basically multiply by three, add another game in there. You're looking at somewhere in the mid-20s. Let's just go with the number that Carter Stanley had his senior season, which was total touchdowns.

You had 24 passing, one on the ground. Jalen also had one or two rushing touchdowns, so the number would actually go up. If I gave you an over-under for Jalen Daniels of 25 total touchdowns on the year, what would you take? I would take the under i the number i've had in my head and i don't really know why but the number i've had in my head for jaylen daniels has been 24 now i guess that's passing so take that for what you will you know to think about the last three weeks of the season and i'm not using this to try and discredit what Jalen did because whenever he needed to sort of make a play he did and he deserves all the credit in the world for

that but one thing that I that hasn't been discussed nearly enough is that Kansas had eight takeaways in its final three games I believe and correct me if I'm wrong I believe they got out gained in all three of them, despite the fact that obviously winning the Texas game and both the TCU and the West Virginia games were really close. But it was sort of this bend, don't break mentality where they got a bunch of takeaways. They gave the offense extra opportunities. Devin Neal had the career game against Texas, but it's not as though this offense was just firing on all cylinders in a way that they weren't. They were being very opportunistic on both sides of the ball. They forced turnovers.

They got extra possessions, made some, you know, made the most of those extra possessions and extra opportunities. So I don't know how sustainable that is. Now maybe you want to say, okay, the offense takes a step forward. The offensive line makes a leap. You've got this stable of running backs. Jalen Daniels kind of comes into his own. All of those things could happen, but I'm still waiting to see it. I'm waiting to see this offense look like one that can just sort of move the ball down the field, move the sticks, pick up scoring opportunities.

And we just haven't seen that consistently. So, I mean, if Jalen Daniels had 24 touchdowns, by the way, I think we would be pretty pleased with that season, all things considered. So I'm going to take the under, but not my bunch. I'm going to take the under, but not my bunch. I'm going to take the under on this, but I think if it goes over, if you told me this goes over, I think Kansas wins minimum four games. Like that's how good I would feel about that. But it's still Kansas quarterback play. You know what I mean?

Like it's still not like they have this ultra explosive offense. You don't have a ton of great receiving weapons around you I kind of am envisioning a season where it's like 16 passing touchdowns maybe a handful more rushing touchdowns and then to this next prop bet because I'm taking the under there of Jalen Daniels over under 10 and a half interceptions that's the one that's really interesting to me both in terms of how competitive Kansas can be and how much do they need that number to be low because to your point interceptions. That's the one that's really interesting to me, both in terms of how competitive Kansas can be and how much do they need that number to be low? Because to your point about Kansas taking the ball away eight times last year in those last three games, they were able to be

competitive in those games, but it's not like they weren't really turning the ball over either. Like the Texas game, they didn't have any turnovers, but the TCU game they did, the West Virginia game, they had the two red zone interceptions from Jalen Daniels in that game, and they were still competitive in both. Clearly, they operate on a tighter margin for error, so you want to avoid that. But if you look at him having the three interceptions in the three and a half games, that puts him at about a 10-11 interception pace this season, which last year, Spencer Sanders led the Big 12 with 12 interceptions. You'd be around the Big 12 league at that point, even though that doesn't sound like a ton of interceptions, especially if you're coming up with 25 total touchdowns. Would you go the over on Jalen Daniels?

And if you are going over or if you think it's near that, how much do you think it affects the win total? Well, obviously it affects the win total tremendously. I want to know where did kansas end up ranking last year in turnover i know in turnover margin they especially the i believe the last three weeks of the season they were top five in the country now kansas ended i think they were plus two for the year yeah and they uh yeah okay so'm going to take the under because I think one thing that we saw last year in two ways, both in terms of turnovers and in terms of penalties,

is there was sort of this risk-averse mindset for the Kansas offense, which is we're not going to be, you know, super explosive. We're probably not going to score a ton. So we have to minimize mistakes. We have to minimize self-inflicted wounds. They were one of the least penalized teams in the country. They only had 13 turnovers all year, right? That doesn't necessarily lend itself to scoring a lot of points, but it does lend itself to playing these sort of slow grinded out game. And I again, I think

that speaks to the mentality of the coaching staff, which is, hey, we know what we have. And we have to play to our strengths. So I'll actually take the under on turnovers. But in a weird way, I think if you want to, if you want to look at it more optimistically and say, Okay, they're gonna let this guy go, then if you think you if you want to look at it more optimistically and say okay they're going to let this guy go then if you think he's going to get over the 24 to the 25 and a half touchdowns it's probably more likely that he's going to go over the turnover mark if that makes any sense yeah i agree with that i agree with that i think i'm right around there for interceptions he is someone who likes to push it a little bit so i'm leaning over i'm thinking like i said i don't know 16 18 touchdowns 12 interceptions something like that that feels right so i'm gonna go over because

what i see i see like if i say 24 touchdowns for him i'm thinking like 19 passing five rushing and maybe like seven interceptions which wouldn't be a gaudy stat line, but I think that would be sort of efficient and risk averse like we saw last year. Yeah, I think Carter Stanley was 24-11, 25 with the rushing touchdown. More rushing yards from Devin Neal plus Savion Morrison, or more rushing yards from Kai Thomas plus Daniel Hyshaw plus Torrey Laughlin. I know you're not great at math, but can you figure this one out? No, I'm not great at math, but can you figure this one out? No, I'm not great at math. But I'm going to simplify this for myself and not really think about the math.

Kansas was an average running team. The offensive line was well below average. Yes, they made strides those last three games of the season, but this was one of the worst offensive lines in the country and unless you think that they're going to take a massive step forward I don't see this being a team that's going to run for 180 to 200 yards a game I think they're right around the 145 mark last year and if that's going to be the case this question can be answered pretty simply how big do you think the gap is between Devin Neal and the rest of the guys in that running back

group I know that like Daniel Hyshaw and Kai Thomas have sort of been the fun names to think about and we sort of do this this time of year where you look at like a really talented room like you have with the running backs and you say oh my gosh all these guys could play a role on this team we talked about this a couple weeks ago, Derek. Realistically, there are only two guys who are going to be able to produce at a high level for any team, really. Unless you're Alabama and you're blowing teams out and you're putting your third stringers in the fourth quarter,

you've got room for two guys to get a lion's share of the carries. So I'm going to say Devin Neal, and I don't even remember who you put with him, Savion Morrison? Yeah. I'm going to put him in there because one thing that has not really been discussed a ton this preseason at least from the people I've listened to and the things I've read is Jason Bean was second on this team in rushing yards last year I know they still like Jason Bean I'd imagine they're gonna find a way to get him on the field.

Jalen Daniels isn't nearly as effective as a runner as he is, but whoever is in their quarterback, you would figure is going to be amongst the top three rushers on this team. Wouldn't you agree? Yeah, he showed a good amount of it too last year in the games he played. Do you think if Jalen Daniels is the starter the entire season, do you think he eclipses 250 rushing yards this year? Last year, Jason Bean had over 400.

Yeah, I mean, 250, that's putting you at, what, 21 rushing yards, something like that a game? I think that's pretty doable. Not that much. so if that's what you think is going to happen then realistically there's only enough room for another guy to get i mean in the best case scenario i think devin neal is going to approach a thousand yards this year i really do i think he's he's special. So if I think he's at 1,000 yards, I got, what, maybe 600 to 800 yards to go around. And if I have 200 for whoever's starting at quarterback, let's say it's Kai Thomas who comes in and gives you 450 to 600. There's just not enough. There's just not enough.

The only way you get around it is if you think this team is going to take a massive leap offensively and all of a sudden be a team that can rush for 200 yards a game yeah i think devon neal's the right side of that i i think that when kai thomas first transferred here it was almost this thought of like oh they're going to split carries and have equal stats but i i know the first depth chart came out and all of them are listed as or next to each other it's going to be devon neal like he's going to be the go-to guy and even in past years with Lance Leipold, where they've had other running backs get a lot of carries, get a lot of yards, there's that clear number one that has been in past seasons.

So I think I would go Devin Neal there. The last individual player when I have six and a half sacks for Lonnie Phelps, which is what Kyron Johnson got last year. Kyron Johnson was such a different one. When you do a side-by-side photo of Kyron Johnson and such a different, when you do a side-by-side photo of Kyron Johnson and Lonnie Phelps, you would not think these guys do the same thing. Because Kyron Johnson was the fastest dude on the team. He's just this super athletic linebacker, speed rusher.

That's not Lonnie Phelps. Lonnie Phelps is a massive human being. He's on the all neck team. You know, I'm a sucker for big muscular. Lonnie Phelps, like you just look at him from the shoulders up and you say, okay, that guy's getting 12 sacks. I like the defensive line. Like obviously that was a huge, huge issue last year.

Like they got killed up front. And this is an experienced group with Sam Burt in the middle. I don't know enough about Lonnie Phelps to see how he's gonna fit in so I'm gonna take the under but I do it was a huge addition in my opinion the biggest addition like I know Kai Thomas may maybe plays a sexier position but this team desperately desperately has to do a better job both stopping the run and getting after the quarterback. So I hope I'm wrong, and I feel like I'm taking the under on everything here, but I'm going to take the under. I think it's probably closer to 4.5, 5 sacks for Lonnie Phelps.

This one I'm going to take the over. So he had 9.5 sacks at Miami of Ohio. Obviously that doesn't translate into Big 12 play, though we did see it translate with some of the Buffalo guys. Like Rich Miller comes over being a backup at Buffalo, and he starts for Kansas because the program's just kind of down. I just think he's a better pass rusher in general. Like Kyron Johnson, more freak athleticism, like you were kind of saying.

But I think Lonnie Phelps is just a better pure pass rusher, and I think he has better pieces around him. The defensive line has like five or six sixth-year seniors or fifth-year seniors on the roster. I've heard a lot about Caleb Sampson and Caleb Taylor, the way that they're going, and a lot of coaches around the Big 12 seem to think highly of Caleb Sampson. I think the D-line is just going to be better that it's going to have a tougher time focusing on one guy. Maybe last year you could say, okay, we're just going to double Kyron Johnson and we'll deal with everyone else.

There still might be some of that this year, but I think it'll be a little less effective with better D linemen around him. So I think he gets over that. And if you get more production there than you had last year with one of your better defensive players, I think you feel good about that.

In just a moment, let's get to some team over under prop bets. That coming up on Locked on Jayhawks. BetOnline.net is the fastest and easiest way to check in on all of your betting needs. Find all your favorite sports and events at the number one online source for odds, lines, and games. Find reviews and news of every league, including Major League Baseball, NFL, NBA, NHL, combat sports, esports, and even golf.

BetOnline continues to be the top online resource for all your sports wagering information from live in-game betting, scores and podcasts, they have you covered. Head to BetOnline today or use your mobile device to learn more about the action happening today BetOnline, where the game starts The over-under

for wins for KU is 2.5 this year I don't know where you sit on that. I'm firmly at the three and nine camp, so I'm going over as far as that goes. But I want to add a twist to this, and you can tell me what you're taking with that in a second. If I gave

you the over-under of Kansas finishing nine and a half, I don't know if that's proper grammar, in the Big 12, are you taking the under, which would mean they wouldn't finish last big 12 are you taking the under which would mean they wouldn't finish last or are you taking the over i'm i that was that what you're right to criticize yourself that was a confusing way to ask that so you're basically asking me if i think canvas will finish last in the big 12 yes i do think canvas wins three games this year. But is that good enough to finish ninth in the Big 12?

If you think they're winning three, obviously Tennessee Tech. You probably circle in Duke. That's only one Big 12 win. It's probably not. So what you're basically asking me, though, is do I think West Virginia is just going to absolutely bottom out this year? Or that Kansas can get a second Big 12 win? Yeah, but do you think there's anybody other than West Virginia

and Kansas who could finish last in the Big 12? Is there any team I'm missing there? I think with Texas Tech and TCU, there's clearly talent on the roster. They have coaches who are familiar with their areas, but also there's a lot of influx situations going on there that i have no idea what to expect from either of those schools see west virginia to me is this sort of perfect situation well i mean perfect for kansas of a they're not very good and b they're incredibly inexperienced. Like, when you look at, like, one of the things that's going to be really interesting to me about the Big 12 this year is all of these teams, like Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Kansas State, Iowa State, all these teams lost a ton.

Like, you're talking about some of the most inexperienced teams in the country in terms of losing production from a season ago candace if you if you do look at um bill connelly vsb and he does this returning production rankings i believe he had candace in the top five now granted it's returning production from a two and ten team but part of me wonders like if there were ever a year to steal an extra win where you've got a bunch of juniors and seniors and you're going up against a team with talented players, but inexperienced talent, this would be the year. So I do think Kansas gets two big 12 wins by the way, because I don't,

I don't think they beat Houston. I think they do beat West Virginia and they lose to Duke. So I think somewhere along the way, and like for some reason, I don't know why, but the team I keep looking at and saying like, you're going to steal this one is Iowa State in week five. Iowa State experienced more roster turnover than just about every program in the country. And I kind of wonder with everything they lost, like it felt like they had this sort of window the last couple of years with Brock Purdy and Brees Hall

and the tight end Charlie Kohler, like they're kind of hitting the reset button in Ames. So I do think they get two big 12 wins, but I don't think it's enough to get them out of the cellar. I think they probably finish tied for 10th place. I think there's probably two teams that sit there at whatever that would be. Two and nine.

Dude, I told you I'm bad at math. I can't even tell you if they won two Big 12 games, how many losses. That would be seven? Yes. They play nine Big 12 games. Can you subtract nine by two? Dude, seriously. It's just simple arithmetic.

Can you do this math? Over, under, one and a half, all Big 12, first and second team selections for KU? Hmm. I'm going to say... How many running backs do they take on each team? Just one? That's the problem. I think they take two on both.

But even then, it's not a guarantee. You've got Bajon Robinson. There's Deuce Vaughn, Bajon Robinson. So you're basically like, will Devin Neal finish amongst the top four running backs with two of them being near locks? And, I mean, there's some other good ones as well. Obviously, whatever Oklahoma's going to do,

you know they're going to put up numbers with the running back. Same with Baylor. They're a run-first offense. So Oklahoma State always has a guy. I mean, it's going to be really tough to get on the running back spot. I think Kenny Logan will make one of those first two teams i'm gonna say over i'll say two i think devon neal gets on there like i gotta put my money where my mouth is at some point if i'm gonna keep talking about how i think this this

is the guy and he's a special talent and he's gonna rush for over a thousand yards then i don't want to hedge my bet and say yeah but he's not's not going to be that great. So I might as well go all in on Devin Neal. So I'll say Devin Neal and Kenny Logan. I like the Kenny Logan one. I think they've got a chance with one of the defensive linemen between one of the Calebs or Lonnie Phelps, and then I think Neal gives you a chance. I think you have a chance with one of the offensive linemen.

Like Mike Nowitzki or Earl Bostic, if the running game is that good with Devin Neal, maybe one of those guys gets credited for that and pops up there. So I would take the over. I'm not saying all those guys will be on there, but maybe just one. You're just kind of like throwing darts and hope that one hits a bullseye. Last one for the team props here, and then we'll come to the Tennessee Tech game for the first Friday. Over under 3.5, 11 a.m. games for Kansas,

because this is actually something that I think has been sneaky for me, hasn't happened as much. You only had two 11 a.m. games last year. Year before, you had four. That's a lot because there were only nine games. Year before was five, but we already know there's none in the first three weeks. Friday night, they're at like 3 o'clock against Houston, I think 5 o'clock against West Virginia, or maybe i mixed those up um over under three and a half

11 a.m games so i mean the first one you would look at would be duke in week four that's like a surefire right that's like a lock for an 11 a.m. game. Then you get to week five, Iowa State, who at that point, you know, will have already played the Cy Hawk game, which they'll probably lose. They'll have just played Baylor. I guess they could do it a week out, right? So we'll know even before the Baylor game. Yeah. I think you probably have two in those first two games.

That seems like, dude, this is probably, now that I'm doing the math, like this is the easiest one. Take the over. Just like, Donnie, I don't need to count the games. I'll take the over. It's probably going to be like six. I mean, you could convince me the Iowa State and the TCU ones end up at like one o'clock or 1.30 or two, whatever that window is.

Here's the thing. It doesn't even matter with the good games. Like three weeks kansas plays at oklahoma at baylor at oklahoma state like have fun and in those games it does like the tv networks they don't care they're not going to put those beat downs in a marquee time slot so even if you have one good team there's a really good chance it's still an 11 a.m. game. We got some props for the Tennessee Tech game on Friday after this. KU takes on Tennessee Tech

on Friday. I've got some quick ones. This will be more like rapid fire. I'm just going to list stuff off. Give me a quick answer. Half a special team mess up for KU. Over. I guess it depends.

Well, dude, you told me to go Rapid Fire. Yeah, I know, I know. One all season? You could be the best special teams unit in the country. No, no, no, just against Tennessee Tech. Just against Tennessee Tech. Oh, okay, sorry. Okay, I'll take under.

Yeah, I guess I'll take under. Unless you count missed field goals. I could see that happen. Over under 17 points by halftime. That's what they scored in total against their FCS opponent last year. Over. I'm going to push. Kansas over under 34 total points.

I mentioned they scored 33 last year against Duke. Outside of Texas, that was the most they've had. So, if they put up 34 That would be their second best output of the Lance Leipold era Over under See, I think they'll be able to score But based off what we saw from the defense last year They're not going to just completely blank Tennessee Tech

I think it's probably I said I wasn't picking them to cover So I'll say it's a 35-10 win So I'll take the over Yeah, I'm 10 win i'm going like i'll take the over yeah i'm going like 38 17 so i'll take the over as well but i don't think by like a ton because they might just ground and pound it half a pass from jason being in the first half so that eliminates any second half coming in late into the game does he throw a pass in the first half under no i think he'll be in the game i think

they'll utilize him in the running game but i don't think he'll throw a pass i'll say they drop some trick play just for the fun of it and last 1.5 times that you live bet kansas during the game under come on the only bet i'm making before the season is over two and a half wins but i know vegas kicks everyone's ass in the month of september especially a team with a second year head coach and a bunch of question marks i'm not trying to sound pessimistic about kansas but in terms of live betting what am i going to see in the course of action it's going to make me say you know what let me get some more exposure on this matchup not going to happen tennessee tech goes down returns the opening kickoff it's seven nothing

you get the spread down to like 25 no no if anything i'm fading if anything i'm going uh-oh seen this story before nick i appreciate the time as always man and uh talk to you next week later man that was nick schwirt and this has been Locked on Jayhawks. On tomorrow's show, we are going to look at the two deep that came out for the first week of the season. If you have anything you'd like for the show to talk about or want to follow along on the action, you can reach out at DJohnsonRadio on Twitter, and don't forget to subscribe to the show

so you're getting all the latest with Locked on Jayhawks. That'll do it for today's episode. Have a good rest of your day. I'll see some of you on Rock Chalk Sports Talk later today. Deuces.