Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - KU's Ridiculous 3rd Down Numbers + What-If-Wednesday

Episode Date: September 28, 2022

KU Football has been elite at converting 3rd downs this season behind Jalon Daniels, Andy Kotelnicki and the rushing game. Just how good have they been, is it sustainable, what's the correlation to winning and what does it mean for the Jayhawks? Plus, a What-If-Wednesday had Daniels not stripped his redshirt for Kansas in 2021.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!LinkedInLinkedIn jobs helps you find the candidates you want to talk to, faster. Post your job for free at Linkedin.com/lockedoncollege Terms and conditions apply.Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKEDON15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnlineBetOnline.net has you covered this season with more props, odds and lines than ever before. BetOnline – Where The Game Starts!UpsideDownload the FREE Upside App and use promo code Locked to get $5 or more cash back on your first purchase of $10 or more.Underdog FantasySign up on underdogfantasy.com with the promo code LOCKED ON and get your first deposit doubled up to $100! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

on today's locked on Jayhawks. We take a deep dive into KU success on third downs. I'm Derek Johnson. You can hear me as well on rock chalk sports talk Monday through Friday, three to six on KLWN in Lawrence. Thanks for making locked on Jayhawks. Your first listen every day. We are free and available wherever you get your podcasts on today's edition of locked on Jayhawks your first listen every day. We're free and available wherever you get your podcasts.

On today's edition of Locked on Jayhawks, we dive deep into how successful KU has been on third downs so far this season and why that's correlating to wins, how sustainable is it, that here on Locked on Jayhawks today. So let's start with how ridiculous they have been on third downs. Right now, Kansas is third in the entire country at just under 65% on the season. They're only behind Minnesota, who's over 80%, which is just ridiculous and speaks to how strong of a season they've had and how strong of a start they've had.

And Georgia, who's about 68% and is your defending national title winner and is just as good, maybe better, so far this year than they were last year. The No. 2 team in the Big 12, if you were just looking for in-conference play, conference comparisons among other Big 12 teams, you've got to drop down almost 20 percentage points to where Iowa State is. Cyclones are converting third downs at about 47 percent this year. Kansas again just under 65 percent which that's another story for when we further preview the KU-Iowa State game that whichever defense can really just get off

the field better on third down you're going to feel a lot better about that against offenses that are doing a good job of sustaining but that's the gap between what Kansas has done to start this season versus where Iowa State is in second place for the Big 12 so they've been remarkably good at third down percentage and the big reason why is obviously when you have a great quarterback which KU does with Jalen Daniels when you have a good quarterback and you have a guy that you can trust the ball being in his hands more, obviously if he's accurate or if he's a good passer or he's a good scrambler or he just is trustworthy or if he's a big playmaker,

you're going to convert more third downs than if you're a team that has the opposite of that, a quarterback. It makes sense. The quarterback is typically the I guess most pressured or most um under duress to make a play on third down more often than not like yes there are certain third down and shorts where if you have a good running game and you're setting yourself up in those situations that's going to matter too and KU has done that well so far too uh you also got to give credit though to the KU receivers like they've been making contested catches after contested catches like some of the plays that Luke Graham and Lawrence Arnold and Quentin Skinner have made on these third downs to secure footballs on tight passes or jump balls or whatever, that's been key as well. But Jalen Daniels just has been so money on those third

downs over the course of the season. The West Virginia game he just every big play you needed on like a third down or a fourth down he converted and that's kind of been a theme so far through the season again they're third in the country in third down percentage so Jalen Daniels big reason why you also got to give credit though to Andy Kotelnicki the offensive line the running game you have had a good amount of third down in shorts third down in mediums or maybe you don't have to pass the ball or maybe you have had a good amount of third down and shorts, third down and mediums, or maybe you don't have to pass the ball, or maybe you have the option of doing both and you keep the defense on their toes. And also it's just less yards to convert. It's going to be a little bit easier there. The fact that KU has only been sacked one time, that's super helpful too, right? If you're

in third down and long, if you're a third down and passing situation, the defense is going to be pinning their ears back. They're going to be going straight pass rush and a lot of times that can lead to another sack well if the offensive line's been able to hold up then you're going to be able to convert more of those plays on average KU has faced a third down of 5.9 yards this season but more than half of their third downs have been five yards or less. And that's kind of where you'd like to live. Preferably, you'd like three or four when you're on a third down. But if you can be mostly at third down and five or less, you can live with that as opposed to it being, you know, third and eight, third and nine, third and ten every time. But over a third of their third downs have been third down and four or less,

and over a fourth of their third downs have been third and three or less. So pretty much a quarter of the time they're facing third and three or less. A third of the time it's third and four or less, and half of the time it's third and five or less. That can be really successful, especially when you have a team that can be really balanced, has ran for over 200 yards each of these last three weeks against Power Five, basically competition,

and also have the ability to pass the ball with Jalen Daniels, have a dual-threat quarterback. It just keeps defenses on their toes, and it's a credit to really everyone because you have to do well on first and second down to get to third down, and that's not just Jalen Daniels it does involve the run game but it's certainly been something that KU has done a lot better at than maybe years past like you think of some of the unsuccessful teams and it's hey they're constantly facing second down in 10 they're constantly facing

third down and eight third down in 12 and this team has done a better job of avoiding that. Now, how sustainable is this? Or I guess what actually is? Well, last season, in the regular season of the 2021 college football year, the average third down and 5 slash 6 was converted at 40% of the time around college football. So again, I go back. KU has faced an average of about third and just under six so far this season. If those numbers hold, that tells you that this is not sustainable, that the college football average team is converting at 40% last year and KU is in the mid-60s right now. So there's going to be quite the reckoning.

There's going to be quite the readjustment coming to KU. But also, that's the college football average. And if you believe Jalen Daniels is this legit, if you believe Jalen Daniels is one of the top quarterbacks in the Big 12 and he is one of the better quarterbacks around college football and KU does have one of the better offenses around college football, they're going to skew to the higher end of that average than they are toward being average or below that average. Even then, though, the better teams might convert 43, 44, 45, maybe closer to

high 40s percent on those third down and five and third down and six over the course of the long season. So if KU is averaging out at about a third down and six, you probably will see their third down percentage drop over the course of these next games. But where would that reversion be coming? Does that mean they're going to have one game where they go three of 14 on third down and it just reverts all in that one game? Or does that mean that we're going to see it over the gradual course of time where KU is going to convert 38 to 45 percent over the next four or

five games and that'll slowly equal itself out? You'd prefer probably the latter. I guess it just depends if it's a game that you're completely out of, maybe you would prefer just to get it done all out of the way, although that's not really how things work. It's not like KU can go into a game and be like, hey, let's just not try to convert any of these third downs, think when you have Jalen Daniels and everything, you expect to be good at third downs. But the rate that they're going right now isn't just one of the better marks in the country. Like, for instance, last year, the teams who led the country in third down percentage, you're around 50%. So even if KU is one of the best or like the best third down conversion team, there still is going to be a reversion coming because you're probably going to go down 10 to 15% over the course of the season. But one thing also KU can do to kind of counteract any reversion coming is continue to be aggressive on fourth down. It essentially gives you another shot at

it. And I think that can maybe help balance things out. Or, hey, if your third down percentage goes down from 65 like it is now to 50 over the course of the season, okay, well, what if you improve the defense a little bit? Or what if you improve, you know, you don't get as many third downs over the course, right? There's little ways that you can improve on things to kind of balance that out. And at that same point in time, while that reversion is coming, I do think in what we've been talking about here with KU having a good quarterback and a good offense and Jalen and everything, the floor for what that reversion is has been raised very much. So that 40% of the college football average, that's not KU.

They're not average. Jalen Daniels is much more than an average quarterback in college football. He's been great. He's been elite. KU's offense has been much more than an average offense in college football. They haven't showed signs of slowing so far, and we'll see against a good defense this week in Iowa State. But teams with great QBs convert more third downs. So while they might not continue at this high level on third down,

they should still be good at it, and that's crucial for the next part of this conversation, which we'll get to in just a moment. But first, BetOnline.net is your number one source for football betting info this season. Find all the latest player developments, team matchups, news, podcasts, and in-depth articles and analysis on every game you can find. And as always, BetOnline remains your continued source for all your sport wagering information with live betting and up-to-the-minute scores for every sport out there. The fastest and

easiest way to check in on all your favorite games and events, including MLB, MMA, boxing, and golf. Head to BetOnline.net or use your mobile device to learn more. You can get KU plus three and a half against Iowa State on BetOnline right now. I think I would be leaning KU with that. I'm thinking it's going to be a close game between these two. Iowa State has played a lot of close games over the past few years with Matt Campbell. We know KU is obviously a lot more competitive. It's hard to get out of the back of your head though the game last year where Iowa State just romped KU and it wasn't even close from the get-go, but obviously this is a much different KU team.

So you can go do that bet online where the game starts. Well, the natural evolution of this conversation is, okay, KU's great at third down. Here's why. Makes sense. Can it be sustainable? What does that mean? Like, what does it do for winning? There's obviously a huge correlation to converting third downs and really on the defensive side, getting off the field on third downs. Because you know why? That means you're getting a stop or you're continuing on the drive.

Like, it's very obvious. But, like, let's just look at the Big 12 for the sake of this in terms of some of the best teams in the conference in years past and how they've done on third downs, what it could mean for KU in their own league. The highest third down rates last year converted for an offense in the Big 12 were actually held by TCU, Kansas State, then Texas. So that doesn't necessarily bode super well for you, right? TCU was a 5-7, 6-6 team.

Kansas State made a bowl. Texas went 5-7. That doesn't jump off the page. But last season, keep in mind, the Big 12 was more about defense. It was one of the highest rated defensive conferences in the country. It was more about the defense than the offense last year. And the teams that did well, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, were at the very least pretty much right in line with what Kansas State and Texas did in like second and third and third down percentage they weren't far back so realistically they were

kind of on the upper end there but it's it's funny because if you look at who led the Big 12 like TCU last year they were at like 45 percent on third downs if you go back to previous years the number jumps closer to 50 percent so I think that just shows how defenses kind of steered the league last year. And if you could just be in the fight in that third down rate and then have the good defense or whatnot, like that was kind of enough. I will say though, you do look at those lists, like TCU and Texas did have really good offenses last year. So at the least, you know that about KU, but you probably already did. Let's go back to 2020. Iowa State was first in third down percentage in 2020. And guess what? That team played for a conference title. Oklahoma State

was second. They had a good season. Oklahoma was 0.7% from being third. They won the league. So they were up kind of near the top as well. And then if we go back to those Oklahoma teams in 2019 and 2018, those teams are humming at like 50 percent on third downs when you had again it makes sense you have elite quarterback play right you have what Jalen Hurts and Kyler Murray they won the league both years I believe they made the playoff both years so there is some correlation in the Big 12 but uh it not necessarily hasn't always been like oh the first place team is destined for you know all this great success but it is a bit of an indicator for what type of success you could have if we zoom out to like the

national perspective though i think it starts to register even more in 2021 the top teams in third down conversion rate in the country were coastal carolina alabama ohio state oregon kentucky Bristol Carolina, Alabama, Ohio State, Oregon, Kentucky, Wake Forest, Oregon State, Utah, and Western Kentucky. A couple of those you might be like, why? That doesn't sound whatever. But I'm telling you, all those teams on that list were good, at least offensively, and put up big win totals. So all of those teams won seven or more games. That was the floor for those teams I just named. They won seven or more games, and all of them went bowling.

And in the cases of Coastal Carolina, Alabama, Ohio State, Oregon, Kentucky, Wake Forest, and Utah, those seven schools all won double-digit games. And then your Western Kentuckys of the world won like nine. So the top teams at it last year there was a big correlation with success and a lot of those had some of the best offenses in the country like I was getting to at the beginning here this is a little bit less about maybe a correlation and maybe more just about I guess common sense you convert more third downs you stay on the field longer, you have drives that are more likely to reach points, therefore you have a better chance of winning games. Duh.

If you have a good quarterback, you convert more third downs. Or if you have a really good running game that gets you in third and shorts more often and then is able to convert those third and shorts more often because they have a good running game. So I guess the point being, wrapping this conversation all back together, even if a regression period does come for KU in terms of third downs and they go down from being 65% to 50% or they go from being one of the top three third down converting teams in the country to just the top 20, 25 team in the country there. There's still reason to believe KU can still have a good mark in that regard, which has

been as pivotal as anything to their 4-0 start. I mean, they had to have each one of their third and fourth down conversions to win that game against West Virginia when you have a game that goes into overtime and you win on a tight line like that. In the Houston game, again, you were money on all these third downs. And that was a game where you had a little bit more third and longs. Like the West Virginia game was more of those third and mediums, third and shorts. Houston game was a lot more third and longs. You were still able to get them to go. And then in the Duke game, like obviously, yes, continuing to convert third downs.

You weren't really able to convert the key fourth downs in those games, but that was obviously pivotal to you winning the game. And so if it does continue this way, there's no reason Kansas shouldn't continue to have a top-tier offense because we know they're balanced. They can run the football. They have this kind of spread triple option attack that's unique. It's different.

It's tough to prepare for. You have a dynamic quarterback. You have dynamic running backs. You have receivers who are stepping up and making big plays and aren't really making mistakes right now. You have an offensive line that's played really well to start the season, just one sack allowed. And like in the Houston game, just road graded them.

They were getting insane numbers before the running back was even getting contacted. They had pretty solid numbers against Duke in that regard too, but the Houston game was kind of taking it even to another level. So if KU continues to do this, which you add that on to all those great things they do with Andy Kolnicki's scheme and everything that he's done schematically, and you continue to stay on the field and convert third downs, Kansas should have continually a top-tier offense here. And they should be a bowl team. And maybe they should even quench for more. And another kind of, I guess, important thing here is that the defense that maybe has struggled at times, you kind of keep them off the field. Like, you're giving up 27 points per game, but if you're going by efficiency, it's probably not as good as that

so far for the KU defense now there were two reasons to believe well the defense could be better than that based on slow starts in the Houston and West Virginia game and there have been a couple things that maybe haven't gone their way but that right there the third down conversions has unlocked the key really to me to what Jalen Daniels is to what this offense is and what KU can be moving forward if they can sustain at least at a high enough rate here on third downs and stay on the field. Coming up in just a moment, we're going to get on to our What If Wednesday here.

Our What If Wednesday for this week. What if Jalen Daniels keeps his red shirt at the end of last season and doesn't play the final two games? So if you remember with the red shirt rule being you can play in four games, and Jalen, after the Texas game, I believe that was his fourth game, and so he had to make a decision. It was obviously much talked about because it was, do you sacrifice one year of the short term for a year of the long term?

And obviously Kansas, you're viewing it as, well, this is a long-term building project. So why would we want to sacrifice the short term? But then you kind of think about it and you go, man, but you just beat Texas. And clearly you look like the guy. Let's see if we can find something there. Let's see if we can build on that and work some momentum into next season right and he ended up burning the red shirt to play the final couple games he helped KU be competitive in those final two games you almost beat TCU you almost beat West Virginia it's it's hard to envision the way Jalen is playing right now that he wouldn't have just

won the job this offseason anyway but based on what we've seen in Lance Leipold's staff's you know past they they pretty much stick with a guy now that doesn't necessarily mean year to year they're going to stick with the guy but over the course of that year they would so it does make you wonder if Jason Bean quarterbacks the final two games I mean who knows if they're as competitive or not but does Jason Bean have the upper hand coming into the offseason especially too because like we've heard that Jalen hasn't always like been the best practice player like sometimes he tests things he sees what he can get away with so that he knows into the game he can kind of tighten the screws a little bit and with Jason Bean we heard how great of a camp he had now maybe

that was just the staff trying to appease the Jason Bean side of things here because you don't want a good backup quarterback to transfer away especially with all the running plays and hits that Jalen Daniels is taking you never know when Jason Bean might have to come into a game but it does make you wonder if that happens. Like, are we at a point where, I don't know, quarterbacks are rotating? Is Jason Bean the guy? I think there's still an outside chance there. That's the case. I do still think, though, that, you know, like talent rises to the top. And the fact that Jalen has been this good, it's hard to envision he wouldn't have just won the quarterback competition over the offseason, so maybe it's not that different.

But what does not playing those final two games in which KU was competitive do for both him and the team? Do they have as much positive momentum coming off the Texas game? We've seen games before where KU has upset a Big 12 school or they've played a close game, and then the next week they just get blown out. And it feels like there is no momentum. It was just like a good moment, like kind of a fluky, off-ridden moment. But they carried that momentum from Texas into the offseason, which I think helped with bringing on a bunch of the transfers that they did.

I think it helped in terms of giving this team confidence and making them feel like, hey, we're not as far away as you might think and we're going to take this extra seriously with the offseason conditioning and with spring ball because we can see the plan laid out by Lance Leipold and we're starting to see the results of that that we know deep down we have more confidence we know where this is going so like does that momentum still appear if Jalen takes the red shirt and Jason Bean comes in those final two games and you're not as competitive and you don't play as close games there maybe you are still competitive there but I think from what we've seen from Jalen since he's taken over

quarterback it's just a whole nother level there that I don't think those games would have been nearly as close and then just can't you have as much confidence in Jalen? Like even if Jalen does end up being the starter and winning it in the offseason and whatnot, and he doesn't have as maybe as many valuable, like I think that West Virginia game for him, the last game of the season, he threw the two picks in the red zone. I think that was great learning experience for him. You heard headed into the West Virginia game, how felt like that was kind of motivation for him. And I wonder how much of a good learning experience overall that just was for him that helped him coming into this year.

So that to begin with. But if you hadn't seen it the last two games in addition, does Kansas have as much confidence headed into the season? Are some of the play calls more tailored to protecting the quarterback until they fully know what they've got instead of thinking that, hey, maybe we found something at the end of last year? So, again, I like to think the talent rises to the top here and that he'd still be the starter and KU would still be this good this year. But what if it is the difference in not having that total confidence yet

for that early spot in the season and you do lose to West Virginia because maybe you're not as aggressive on some calls in a tight game that leads to you losing it. And you go 3-1 right now instead of being 4-0. It's certainly an interesting what-if to play out based on how much that end of the season kind of spawned something special here in Lawrence. That'll do it for today's edition of Locked on Jayhawks.

Coming up on tomorrow's show, if you have anything you'd like for the show to talk about or want to follow along on the action, you can reach out at DJohnsonRadio on Twitter. And don't forget to subscribe to the show so you're getting all the latest with Locked on Jayhawks. That'll do it for today's episode. Have a good rest of your day. I'll see some of you on Rock Chalk Sports Talk later today. Adios.