Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - LOADED LEAGUE: Kansas Jayhawks FACE Big 12's Toughest Teams—Can They BREAK Through for Top 4 Finish?

Starting point is 00:00:00 The Big 12 is the best conference in college basketball. It's absolutely loaded. Can Kansas finally end this long two-year hiatus and win another Big 12 title? You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. What's going on? Derek Johnson here. This is Locked on Jayhawks. on podcast network, now the number one sports podcast network. Thank you for joining us on today's show.

Starting point is 00:00:35 We're going to be breaking down the Big 12 with our KU basketball Big 12 preview here, getting to some of the top teams, how good the league is overall. Does Kansas have a shot to win the league, at the very least, compete at the top of the league and be one of those top three, top five teams in the conference. We're going to get to the roadmap to success, so to speak, of how they can get that done. We're getting some of the top players,

Starting point is 00:00:54 the toughest games for KU in this full preview of the conference for the Jayhawks. Today's episode of the show is brought to you by GameTime, download the GameTime app, create an account, and use code Locked on College for $20 off your first purchase with game time. You can see some of the KU games in Big 12 play. So let's just start here. How good is this Big 12? For my money, it is the best conference of college basketball. And you know, you'll have some people to track away and say, oh, it's the SEC or it's the Big 10. It's pretty much those three if you want to have a discussion. And in fact, if you look at Bart Torvik and Kenpom, both analytic sites have the SEC as the top league there.

Starting point is 00:01:33 And they have the Big Ten as the number two league on both sites. Ratings-wise, though, it really comes just down to one thing. The difference between the Big 12 not being the top-ranked conference right now is kind of just that Utah is bringing it down. Like, of the 16 schools that are in the league, it is one school that is bringing it. Like, they're ranked 123 on Kenbaum. Everybody else is in the top 85. SEC, their two lowest are 87. and 91. The Big 10 is kind of a different case, but they're just being kind of boosted by the fact that Michigan has been not just dominant, but like historically dominant. So that's raising where they are. But here's the deal to me. The Big 12 is the best league. Like two of the top three on Ken Palm are in the Big 12. Three of the top 10 on Ken Palm are in the Big 12. The SEC has one in the top 10. The big 10 has two, right? And then you also.

Starting point is 00:02:29 also say that, okay, the big, the big 12 has the number 11 team. Big 12 has four of the top 11 on Ken Palm. The SEC and the big 10 have three total between the two conferences in the top 11. If we do the top 20, right? If we do the top 20, the big 12 has five in the top 20. The SEC has five. The big 10 has three. Okay. And the big 12 also has team number 21. So if you did the top 21, it boost them up even more. If we advance to the top 30, the big 12 has seven. The SEC also has seven. The big 10 has four. So I think where it loses some of the lusters, maybe toward the middle or the back end of the league, but the top of this big 12 is as good as it has ever been. And that makes it more difficult for Kansas to try to win the league. It also makes it more

Starting point is 00:03:12 respectable for Kansas. If they can finish third or fourth or something, that you're still going to be at a good place to make a run come March. I think if I was tearing out the league right now, like to me, tier one would, I don't know. Honestly, like I might have Arizona in a tier one by themselves. They were undefeated. They were the first team ever to beat five ranked opponents in their first nine games of the season. That's pretty incredible to be able to do that, right? But I think overall my tier one, I'd have Arizona in there. You look at Arizona on Ken Palm, there in the, their number two, on Bart Torvik, their number five with top 15 offensive and defensive sides. Iowa State, I would have in that tier one, I mean, going on the road to

Starting point is 00:03:56 Purdue and winning by a billion points speaks for itself. But Iowa State right now is ranked ninth on Bart Torvik. They're 11th on offense, 10th on defense. And they're ranked third on Kenpom. Then you have Houston, who is the most liked by Bart Torvik. Their fourth on Bart Torvick with the top five defense. Ken Palm has them as a top 10 team. That would be my tier one. I think any of these tier two teams could easily creep into tier one. And that includes Kansas, where I have them right now. I think Kansas is part of that. You look at Ken Palm, it has them 16th. You look at Bart Torvik.

Starting point is 00:04:29 It has them 11th. The key for Kansas is going to be getting Darren Peterson back. Like, it's hard to say you can win the Big 12 without Darren Peterson being healthy. Right now, Kansas is the 50th best offense on Torvick, the third best defense. They're 11th overall there. They have the defense to get it done. Peterson provides the offensive punch that they need if they want to try to win the conference or compete at the top of the conference. Like we've seen them do so many years under Bill Self in his time.

Starting point is 00:04:53 And this BYU is in this range as well. they've got one of the best players in the country in A.J. DeBonsa, they're 11th on Ken Palm, but they're 18th on Torfax. It's kind of flipped with Kansas between the two. They're kind of opposite of Kansas, not quite as extreme, but they're better on offense than they are on defense. And then the other team I'd have in tier two is Texas Tech. I do think when push comes to shove, tech is a team that I value more in a tournament setting or in a one-game sample than necessarily over the long haul of conference play. I think Tech has some questions about their depth, but I think they're starting five is as good as anybody in the conference. They have a top 20 offense, Torvick only has them 25th, Ken Palm has them 21st.

Starting point is 00:05:37 I think they can beat anybody on any given night. I think in the NCAA tournament, they're going to be really dangerous. I do wonder if that lack of depth costs them a few extra losses here there, at least in conference play, but I would have them in Tier 2, at least for now. I have one team in Tier 3 that I was tempted to move up based on some recent news. That would be Baylor with James Najee. they're 29th on Ken Palm, their 40th on Torvick, but they have a top 10 offense there. The issue is Baylor's 154th on Torvick in defensive efficiency.

Starting point is 00:06:05 And you look at like, I don't know, this just hasn't really been a good defense ever since Jerome Tang left necessarily, but their two-point defense right now is 84th in the country. They just brought on over seven-foot center, James Najee with like 7-7 wingspan. He's going to help cut off the paint. There is a world where James not, and listen, I don't think James Nagy should be. playing basketball. But the fact of the matter is he is right now, so we got evaluated that way. There's a chance Baylor ends up being a tier two team in Big 12 play because of the addition of a professional playing basketball, basically, right? Tier four, I have UCF, TCU, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, K-State. All of them have different things that I think you can find to like.

Starting point is 00:06:44 All of them can get hot in a specific game. All of them have some interesting players. I think all of them are teams that I wouldn't be shocked if any of them made the NCAA tournament. And that makes them dangerous when you're playing them on the road, which KU is at UCF to open up. Obviously, they've got K State here and West Virginia on the road in the month of January. And then you'll get Tier 5, that would be, to me, Cincinnati, Arizona State, Colorado. Tier 6 is the one team on its own, and that would be Utah. When you're looking at top players to watch in the conference, I mean, can Darren Peterson be healthy? That's a big question here.

Starting point is 00:07:13 Outside of that, AJ DeBonsa, obviously one to watch for BYU. He's in the national player of the year conversations, a potential number one pick in the NBA draft, right? He's at least in the conversation with Peterson and Boozer. Christian Anderson for Texas Tech has been fantastic. Sophomore Guard took a huge jump. I mean, he was already a really good player last year and kind of the third fiddle with Daryon Williams and J.T. Toppin. I don't know.

Starting point is 00:07:36 He's almost taking a step above J.T. Topin this year. I think you'd probably argue that. So he's been amazing to watch. Cameron Carr has been a really good score at Baylor added as a transfer via Tennessee. He'll be one to watch Richie Saunders, really good shooter at BYU. That's a nice duo with him in DeBonsa. You look at Iowa State. They've got some really good players, Tameen Lipsy and Milan Mums, Mum Chilovich, Joshua Jefferson.

Starting point is 00:07:57 Those are all three upperclassmen in the case of Jefferson transferred in the last year. I think it was from St. Mary's had a good year. And now he's like a dark horse national player of the year candidate. It's probably going to go like Boozer. But Mum Chilovich has been good. Lipsie's been good. They've been good. Houston's got kind of a bunch of returners that are interesting.

Starting point is 00:08:15 You look at Emmanuel Sharp. He can fill it up. Jojo Tuggler, really good on the defense event. One of the new additions for Houston was a freshman. and Kingston Fleming. Now, they brought in some really good freshmen, including Krasenac, but Fleming's looked like a lot of repicks so far, really athletic guard for them.

Starting point is 00:08:29 He's interesting. Isaiah Johnson is kind of a fun player as a freshman, adding to the wave of freshman in Big 12 basketball for Colorado. Obie Ogbim for Baylor is a really good shooter and somebody who can create shots for them. Obviously, if we're adding the Kansas guys, Florida Bedunga, Trey White, Melvin Council, you kind of know those guys already. Some other ones to watch, like Jayden Bradley and Arizona has been really good. Haggerty can really light it up and go for 30 or even 40 on a given night for Kansas State.

Starting point is 00:08:56 Rob Wright, J.T. Toppin, who is the Big 12 player of the year last year and feels almost like a little more forgotten somehow this year with what he's been able to put up. We're going to see Jordan Burks for UCF. He can get hot in a moment's notice. LeWan Watts had like a 40-point game recently. There's some really good players in the Big 12th. There's some star power in the conference. It's going to be a really difficult league to maneuver. So how does Kansas make this happen? How does Kansas contend for a Big 12th title? So how do they at least get in that top three, top five range? Why is that important? And what are the toughest games ahead for the Jayhawks?

Starting point is 00:09:27 We'll get to that next. Today's episode of the show is brought to you by game time. There's nothing like the college basketball season, right? Especially as we get closer to March, the games, the importance starts to heat up. And sometimes getting tickets isn't as exciting as the game itself. Well, no more with game time. Given the advantage back to the fans, it's the easiest way to unlock amazing college basketball tickets. experiences in just a few taps. I mean, you can get all these Big 12 games that we're going to be

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Starting point is 00:10:25 the Game Time app, create an account, and use code Locked on College for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Again, that's code Locked on College, L-O-C-E-O-C-E-O-N-C-L-E-G-E-E-GE for $20 off. Download the GameTime app today. Game Time. Thanks again for joining us here on Locked on J-Hawks. You can find a show anywhere you get podcasts, including it on a YouTube

Starting point is 00:10:47 page, and thanks for making the Lockdown the number one sports podcast network. Don't forget you can check out our Everydayer Club where you can for $5 a month or $50 a year get access to an ad-free audio feed for Locked on Jayhawks with Apple Podcasts, Spotify, all the major podcast apps, and you get an invite to the members only at Locked on Everydayer Club Discord server, and you can find the link for that in our show notes. You can go to the specific link, Lockedonjahawks.com. That's Lockedonjahawks.com. Some other perks with that as well. So check that out. All right. What are the toughest games for K.U. you in the big 12 portion of the season we've got our top 10 let's start here number 10 on the list is going to be verse bailer on january 16th that one's coming up just a couple weeks into big 12th play and that one honestly like i thought about moving this up after the addition of james

Starting point is 00:11:34 naji it adds another level of intrigue and not knowing what you're going to get there's a chance this is a tougher game than the number 10 game on the schedule in fact it probably i would be probably willing to move it to number eight after the addition of naji but it's a little bit of like you kind of want to wait and see and at the very least your games at home um the Nine on the list is at Kansas State on January 24th. Now, Baylor is a better team than Kansas State. I don't really think that's a question. KU has had some trouble winning in Manhattan the last, what,

Starting point is 00:12:01 what, the last three, I want to say in Manhattan. And even the win before that took an incredible comeback by O.C. Bajie and Company when Marquis Noelle and Nigel Pack are just knocking down every three. So that's going to be a tough place to play. PJ Haggerty can hit hot. You would imagine in that setting, in that moment he's going to, can Kansas find a way to win in. Manhattan for the first time in a little bit. At West Virginia, that's another place where Kansas

Starting point is 00:12:25 has, now with the K-State 1, KU historically has done really well in Manhattan, it's just recently. When you look at the West Virginia one, that just historically has not been an easy place for KU to win. And West Virginia's got some interesting shooters on the team. They're not off to a great start, but I like the coach in his first year. And it's not going to be an easy place to win, right? On January 10th, coming up at the beginning of coffee today, we even saw them come in to Allen Fieldhouse at the beginning of January last year and beat KU. That is number eight on the list. Number seven on the list.

Starting point is 00:12:57 This might be number one on the list in terms of the games I want to see, although I guess it depends on Derek Peterson, but it's BYU and it's at home. January 31st. And first of all, the fact that this would only be your seventh toughest conference game shows how difficult the slate would be. It is a home game at the least for KU. I'll say this. KU has really struggled with BYU's spacing approach.

Starting point is 00:13:17 They lost him in Allen Fieldhouse two years ago. They lost in Provo last year. They are more suited with the roster and how it's built this year to guard them. I'm not going to say it's going to be like BYU is still going to put up points because that's how good of an offense they are. But they are more suited? But are we going to see Peterson against Abonso? That'll be kind of a big question there.

Starting point is 00:13:34 Number six on the list is at versus Houston. That's on February 23rd. Both of those are home games, but I just think Houston's a little more complete of a team than BYU. That could end up being wrong and you could end up flip-lopping those. But we saw Kansas lose to Houston at home last year. And obviously they should have won that game a couple times, didn't end up happening. Next on the list, number five is at Texas Tech February 2nd.

Starting point is 00:13:55 Texas Tech is a really good team, and that's a tough place to play. You could flip 5 through 7, like you could say BYU is a better team than Tech, so that's a tougher game. I added the, I don't know, I added some extra level of difficulty there because Lubbock is a very difficult place to play. And you're getting the other ones at home. But Tech with J.T. Topin, that'll be an interesting matchup with Florida Bedunga. Toppin gave Hunter Dickens in troubles. It'll be maybe a little different with Flory. We'll see.

Starting point is 00:14:24 And then like that's another one where it's like, if you can get Peterson back, Peterson against Christian Anderson is an awesome matchup to possibly see. Number four on the list is versus Iowa State on January 13th. That one's coming up really quickly. And I think that makes it more difficult. When you look at it, Iowa State's a tough team to prepare for, especially the first time you play them. They have a unique style.

Starting point is 00:14:45 It seems like defensively. And it feels like the later in the conference the season goes, it feels like the record has dropped a little bit over the recent years. I know last year some of that was injury related. But playing them early in conference play when they are hot, when they're rolling, you don't know the status of Darren Peters. And that's going to be really difficult for KU and Allen Fieldhouse. Arizona at home on February 9th is number three on the list.

Starting point is 00:15:06 I think Arizona and Iowa State are fantastic teams. I have Arizona slightly higher than Iowa State. So that's why I have a number three. They've just continued to be this Goliath with Tom. Louis, who has continued to be my number one guy. I'm like, you know, when Bill Self retires, Tommy Lloyd's at the top of my list, but that can be an ever-evolving and changing list. Number two on the list is at Iowa State.

Starting point is 00:15:29 So kind of same thing here, February 14th. And then number one is at Arizona. So those games just flip-flopping. It is a little on one hand that's unfortunate. On the other hand, it's fortunate because it gives you extra quad-one opportunities. It gives you extra big win opportunities. It gives you extra opportunities to prove what you, are, but it is unfortunate that, you know, you're one of, like, you only play three schools

Starting point is 00:15:54 twice without works. And Kansas got stuck with two of the literal best, like if you look at Ken Palm, Iowa, state, in Arizona are two of the top three teams in the country. Kansas is going to have to play four games combined against, which is kind of unfortunate there. What is the tougher two game stretch for KU in terms of back to back games? Is it the verse Arizona? Because they go from versus Arizona on February 9th to at Iowa State on February 14th. Is that a tougher two-game stretch? Or is it the two-game stretch where you play Houston at home on February 23rd? And then you get at Arizona on February 28th.

Starting point is 00:16:28 I don't know what the tougher stretch is. That's really tough because the thing about it is Arizona is technically better than Houston. I mean, they are better than Houston. And you could say, okay, at Iowa State, at Arizona is about a wash. Maybe it's Arizona-Ivo State one. But the thing about Houston is playing them, they're so physical and it can drain you for that second game. So those are going to be two really tough two game stretches for KU.

Starting point is 00:16:51 But I think in general, the toughest like five game stretch or like expanded stretch for KU, it has to be they get BYU on January 31st. They're at Texas Tech on February 2nd. They're versus Utah, which that'll be a little bit of a break in between. But then they're versus Arizona at Iowa State. Four of those top five, four of those five games could be teams that legitimately could make a final four. and then you have one team who won't. But even right after that five-game stretch, too, you're at Oklahoma State,

Starting point is 00:17:18 which historically has been a tough place for Bill Self. So as you would imagine, Big 12 is really good. It's going to be a tough slate for KU. So how do they finish in the top four of the league? What is the importance of the top four? We get to all that next. Let's do a roadmap for KU. Today's episode of the show is brought to you by Fandual Sportsbook.

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Starting point is 00:18:26 That's NBA Happy Hour, only on Fandual, the official sportsbook partner of the NBA and a Lockdown podcast network. Thanks again for joining us here on Lockdown Jayhawks. Don't forget to check out the Everydayer Club. and check out locked on college football or locked on college basketball for your second lesson every day. Obviously with, you know, January 1st, that is prime college football day. We're into the quarterfinal rounds of the college football playoff. Obviously, college basketball, and it's college football ends, like you're going to want to know what's going on with college basketball.

Starting point is 00:18:53 So you can win those water cooler arguments there. All right. So what is the roadmap for candidacies finishing at least top four in the conference? What's the importance of that at first, right? Like this is Kansas. They've won more conference championships than any school in the country. So go win the conference title, sure. But if we're being realistic right now, you look at it and it's like there's two of the best teams in the country.

Starting point is 00:19:13 And as much as I like this KU team, this isn't one of the Bill self just completely dominant teams that is the number one wire to wire team in the country or something like that. If you can get in the top four, though, here's what it does. It gives you a double buy in the conference tournament. And for Kansas team that I don't know, like you have okay with Darren Peterson's injury status, I think getting some extra games off right before you'd be playing in the NCAA tournament, that'd probably be. be pretty nice for KU. So that becomes extra important to get to the top four. Beyond that, if you're in top four team in the Big 12, what's the lowest seed you're going to get in the NCAA tournament, especially coming off when you played another difficult non-conference schedule? Like a three seed in the NCAA tournament, a four seed. So a top four seed would be really helpful

Starting point is 00:19:56 for KU here, right? And you look at last year, a little different because that was a 20 game schedule, but 19 and 1 won the conference last year. I don't think that's going to be as good as Arizona is. There's too many good teams at the top. But 15 and 5. I've got second. There were two teams tied for third at 14 and 6. So that could be the equivalent of 13 and 5, 12 and 6, who knows. So realistically, you go back a year before that you're looking at here. And in an 18 game schedule, which this one is, 15 and 3 won the league, 13 and 5 finished second, and a couple teams tied for third at 11 and 7, which technically, if you're tied third with one other team, you are in the top four. So I think that's the one that I'm kind of looking

Starting point is 00:20:34 at here. Maybe it ends up being more like, I don't know, 15 and 3, 13 and 14 and 4, 12 and 6, two teams at 11 and 7. Who knows? But right now, if you look at Ken Palm, it actually has a projected 15 and 3 wins the league, 13 and 5, a third plus tie between 2, and then it has Kansas 5th at 11 and 7. But that also projects Kansas losing both games to Iowa State, which if Kansas splits versus Iowa State, then that would change the Ken Palm projections to be. being BYU and third at 13 and 5, Iowa State and Kansas tied fourth at 12 and 6. So point being, to get to this point, let's say the goal is to get to 12 and 6, knowing that 13 and 5 might be the number you need to get to, but that at least put you in range.

Starting point is 00:21:18 Or in some of these situations like it was in, you know, just two years ago, 11 and 7 might, with the right tiebreakers, get you in the top four as well. So we'll shoot for 12 and 6. What is the roadmap to getting here? I think the first part you would say is can you start 5 and 2 on the season? That would involve taking care of business at home in these first seven games with TCU and Baylor. Baylor game got a little bit tougher. I think between the home game against Iowa State, the four road games that you play in the first seven at UCF at West Virginia, at Colorado and at K-State, can you between those four road games and the home game against Iowa State go three and two, right?

Starting point is 00:21:56 that would either mean you go two and two on the road and get a big home winning against Iowa State, or if you lose it home to Iowa State, you got to rev it up on the road and go three and one, which is very difficult, but none of those are currently top 50 Ken Palm opponents. So it is doable, right? Can you go three and two in that stretch? Take care of TCU and home. That would put you at five and two through the first seven games of the season. Then first BYU at Texas Tech, can you split those two games? That puts you at six and three. Take care of home against Utah. That's kind of a, you have. have to do that one, right? Seven and three. Now go two and two between your next four of versus Arizona

Starting point is 00:22:33 at Iowa State, at Oklahoma State, and versus Cincinnati, right? It could be you win the two lower ranked games at Oklahoma State and Cincinnati. Could be you win the two home games, Arizona and Cincinnati. Who knows? You win the two road games, right? Get it to two and two. That puts you in nine and five. So that means you get to 12 and six. You now need a three and one finish in the final four games between the versus Houston game at Arizona, at Arizona State and versus K-State. Okay, take care of business on senior day versus K-State. Get revenge against Houston on your home floor. Now split one between that road trip to Arizona, split go one and one.

Starting point is 00:23:13 I think you can probably assume which one would be more winnable, right? But maybe that also means the Houston game comes to ultimate fulcrum getting KU to this mark. because if I'm saying you need to go three and one in that final four, right? If you lose at Arizona but win at Arizona State and versus K State, you have to beat Houston, right, at home. And that becomes interesting because, again, you look at last year, the defining moment of last year's team, like Rylan Griffin in the postseason even said it, like, I think it was Rylan Griffin, that like they just never really recovered after that home loss to Houston. Like, who knows what?

Starting point is 00:23:46 I don't know. Like last year, it feels like there would have been another moment based on just how the year went. but that was kind of the turning moment of it going from bad to worse, I guess. Now, I think among all this, right, that gets you to 12 and 6. And that puts you in a good position to, I think, finish in the top 4. And if 12 and 6 doesn't end up finishing in the top 4, you had some incredible seasons above you, and you're still going to get a really good seat in the NCAA tournament. But obviously, like I said, like there's a chance 11 and 7 gets you in the top 4.

Starting point is 00:24:19 And then one of those games that we kind of went over, that gives you an extra loss to possibly play with. Of course, the flip side to this is I said, okay, can you go five and two in the first seven? What if you can get to six and one in the first seven? If you can get to six and one in the first seven, right? Or instead of that one stretch where I said, can you go two and two, right, versus Arizona at Iowa State, at Oklahoma State versus Cincinnati? Could you take care of home against Arizona and Cincinnati? Could you win one of two on the road at Iowa State and Oklahoma State?

Starting point is 00:24:46 if you just win that one extra game at the front end or right there, then all of a sudden you're potentially 13 and 5, or then all of a sudden you have an extra loss or two to play with, right? So sometimes 11 and 7 can work, sometimes 12 and 6. You don't really know how this works out, but getting that double by, getting a top four seat. We haven't seen KU do it the last two years, right? Very rare and odd, but it would be really important for this team

Starting point is 00:25:09 when with Darren Peterson and his kind of health situation, like you don't want to be playing four games in four days. You don't want to be playing five games in five days. And beyond all that, if you accomplish that, the resume is going to speak for itself. You're going to get a better scene in the NCAA tournament. You're going to get a better location in the NCAA tournament. So that is the roadmap for success for KU and Big 12 play.

Starting point is 00:25:32 I thought it'll do it for this episode of Locked on Jayhawks. You can find our show anywhere, you get your podcast, including on our YouTube page. We can like and subscribe to the show. Don't forget the everydayer club built for you. you can add free plus members only discord access and more you can also check out locked on college basketball or locked on college football for your second list and every day and we'll see you next time for another edition of locked on jhocks we'll have our k ucf preview later this week tomorrow's episode

Starting point is 00:25:56 we're going to be talking k u football transfer portal losses gains and needs headed into friday when the portal opens up see you then on l oj

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - LOADED LEAGUE: Kansas Jayhawks FACE Big 12's Toughest Teams—Can They BREAK Through for Top 4 Finish?

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