Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - McCullar's Return Means Kansas Jayhawks Should Be Preseason #1; History Suggests That's Great News

Episode Date: May 27, 2023

Kevin McCullar is returning for another season at the University of Kansas in Lawrence to add a cherry on top to Bill Self's roster that will likely be the preseason #1 team come the Fall. Should they be in that top spot? And why that preseason #1 matters more than you'd think with past history showing how well teams have done in it's spot. Plus, who has a better chance of getting their KU jersey in the rafters at Allen Fieldhouse: McCullar or Hunter Dickinson?Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!BirddogsToday's episode is brought to you by Birddogs. Go to birddogs.com/lockedoncollege and when you enter promo code, LOCKEDONCOLLEGE, they’ll throw in a free custom birddogs Yeti-style tumbler with every order.Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKEDON15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.FanDuelMake Every Moment More. Don’t miss the chance to get your No Sweat First Bet up to ONE THOUSAND DOLLARS in Bonus Bets when you go FanDuel.com/LOCKEDON.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On today's Locked On Jayhawks, is the discussion for who the preseason number one team over? Is it officially Kansas? I'll tell you why I think that should be the case. You are Locked On Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. You can hear me as well, Monday through Friday, 3 to 6 p.m. on KLWN in Lawrence with RockShox Sports Talk. Thanks for making Locked On Jayhawks your first listen every day. We are free and available wherever you get any of your podcasts.

You can also find us, like and subscribe to the show on our YouTube page. On today's edition of Locked on Jayhawks, we're going to be talking more Kevin McCuller returning. And with McCuller's returnal, I don't think that's a word, but I'm going to use it anyway. Returning, I don't know, whatever. Return to KU for 2023 to 2024. Does it cement KU as the preseason number one team?

Quick answer, I will say yes. And then we will further go into, does it matter, right? Because I know there are certain people who are like, I don't want to be preseason number one. I don't want the hype. Make us preseason number two or number three. Some of the hype is a little off you a little bit, but you're still expected to be a good team.

Well, I'm going to tell you why the, that it actually tends to be a good thing. Why are preseason number one? I know that's crazy thought teams were expected to be good. End up being good. We'll tell you why a little bit later, and then we'll finish up with something fun on a McCuller Hunter Dickinson thing.

So I say, yes, the Kansas is going to be the preseason number one team. And I think they should um at this point in time you know you'll see a few teams kind of get discussed Bart Torvik has them number one right now number two on offense number four on defense they're very close to being number one on offense and number three on defense though and uh you know you might look at okay CBS has them number one 24-7 sports has them number one. Some of the other teams they're in contention with, it seems like Duke is the biggest competition.

Maybe you look at like a Bartorvik, and it has like Tennessee right up there, or Marquette, certainly a team that's going to be expected to be up there and will be up there in terms of the preseason rankings. Michigan State is a team you're seeing in a lot of the preseason rankings ranked really high. In the case of Michigan State, you're talking about a team bringing a lot back from a season before they bring in a good recruiting class, but I think in KU's case, you could say, well, KU was a one seed last year.

Michigan State was a seven. KU brings back three starters. Michigan State, I forget if they bring back four, or I don't know if there's certain guys still testing if it's all five. But KU had a better season last year. KU brings in the better overall class even if michigan state has a similar or better freshman class coming in ku has the transfers coming in um with marquette you know they uh have somebody testing who i don't know has been testing very good and he could end up staying in but even then i'm taking bill self over shock smart and and really the biggest debate then comes down to i guess Tennessee like I don't trust the offense and yeah Rick Barnes will probably have really good regular season what's gonna happen the tournament I don't know but with Duke that's

the big one where it's like well you could argue Duke um they have a lot of talent a lot of guys who are five stars coming back who could progress to be even bigger players in year two Kyle Filipowski is going to be one of the the preseason favorites for national player of the year Mark Mitchell is a really athletic kid that I expect to take a big jump in year two. Jeremy Roach coming back for a move for them as a player who can be kind of a reliable upperclassman point guard can score. I think Tyrese Proctor is going to be a breakout player this next year. Who knows?

Obviously, the Ernest Duda thing doesn't look like that's going to end up working out for both of those parties with him going over there. But they have a pretty loaded lineup, along with a bunch of really good freshmen coming in. And so that's the big debate here. You could go back to last year and be like, well, KU beat Duke. But I don't know. There's so many differences between the rosters, between then and what they are now, that that should not be a data point in this at all. I think that with KU, their case their case it's involved well one you have the

best coach in college basketball bill self two you have the best point guard arguably in the big 12 and one of the best point guards in the country with dewan harris you have one of the best point or centers in the country in the best in the country you have two of the best in the country dewan harris and kevin mcculler you have one of the shooters in the country, DeJuan Harris and Kevin McCuller. You have one of the shooters in the country, Nick Timberlake. In theory, you should have a good bench now, right? You should have at least two, three guys you feel comfortable about coming off the bench this year. You have the star power off the top. You have your potential first team All-American National Player of the Year candidate in Hunter Dickinson. You have the defensive insulation with Harris and KJ Adams and Kevin McCuller. really the one question would I

think be shooting for this team right now. And I think that's a fair question to have. Like, is the shooting going to be just average? Is it going to be below average? Is it going to be above average? I don't really see the world where they're like a great three-point shooting team, but if they're an above average three-point shooting team, that should be enough with everything else they have. But that is the big big question i think you could argue the same thing with duke right it's actually funny because a lot of the questions i might have are similar in the idea that duke wants to to bring it that's why they're going after earnest due day that they wanted to bring in a center that they could have kyle filipowski at the four they could have the center

at the five and they could play mark mitchell at the three and have this jumbo lineup there are certain questions there about the three-point shooting with that roster the spacing with that roster that's not all that different than ku playing kevin mcculler at the three kj adams at the four and hunter dickinson at the five to where like there are a lot of similar questions i think between these two but they both have all sorts of talent i think duke is going to have probably more talent when you look at it from an NBA perspective, like guys who are popping up on mock drafts. I think Kansas probably has the higher floor of what their college level is. So maybe you would say Duke has the higher ceiling, but maybe Kansas has the more attainable

ceiling of what they could be in this year of college basketball, because sometimes it takes freshmen multiple years, which Duke has a lot of. and i think because of the experience factors and questions and then it comes down due to me well john shire might be on his way to being a really good college basketball coach but right now bill self or john shire it's not even close to a discussion or a debate you're taking bill self and for that reason yes they should be and to me they are the number one team in the country you have everything you could ask for. You have the frontline leaders of talent. You have the vocal with Kevin McCuller.

You have the calm, steady point guard when you need guard play. You have a couple other good guards that you're excited about in terms of their athleticism and potential with a guy like El Marco Jackson, depending what happens with Artario Morris. Nick Timberlake gives you a veteran presence, three-point shooter. They have experience and veteran presence all the way throughout like 375 combined career starts on their roster this year so they're an experienced team one of the more experienced ones that bill self has had uh we're going to be kind of talking about that on on rock chalk sports talks you can check that out um and so you have kind of everything you wanted. You have the defense, you have the post score that you want to run through.

And just again, goes down to shooting, but can you do it enough? If you're great at all those other things, right? You should be a good rebounding team too. I would think they can. I would think they should. And on paper, it's a great collection of talent and roster that you're kind of filling out the pieces in a very good form. All right.

We're going to get on to, does it matter? Because again again going back to the conversation of how much does it matter to be preseason number one we just saw last year north carolina missed the ncaa tournament that's more of an aberration though but is it is it bad to have that high of preseason expectations and and have kind of the uh the media be on you right from the bat. Let's discuss coming up next, because there has been some past bad examples for KU, but I think overall it is pretty telling that these teams tend to do very, very well. First, though, this episode of Locked on Jogs

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yeti style tumbler with every order you're not going to want to miss out right now is the perfect time in summer you're going to need good shorts birds has you covered and again promo code locked on college when you're checking out for that free tumbler just being pre-season match just went back and uh i didn't go through every preseason number one of all time you know that would have taken too much time and i don't know how helpful it would have been because college basketball changes eras change three point lines change rules change uh guys staying in school longer or shorter change so it's not super helpful to me to look at the number one preseason team in 1985 and see how they did right uh the tournament gets longer and stuff although it wasn't 85 so i just went back and looked at the last 20 preseason ap number one teams so let's go back to last year north carolina missed the tournament and that would be a bit of

suspicion of like oh does this not mean anything? Well, I think that was clearly the aberration. And I don't know what the heck is up with that with, with North Carolina. Like, even if you're like, Oh, well they got hot. They were an eight seat in the previous NCAA tournament. Okay. They still, even if they were overinflated at being a one seat, they still clearly would have been a top 25 preseason team next year. And I missed the tournament. That was just a weird one. But you go back the year before 2021 Gonzaga was the preseason number one team with Drew Timmy and Chad Holmgren. They ended up getting the number one overall seed in the NCAA tournament. Had a good season. Ended up getting upset in the sweet 16. Then 2020 Gonzaga was the preseason number

one as well. They went undefeated. Got the number one overall seed. Ended up making it to the national title game. 2019 Michigan State was the preseason number one. Obviously ended up making it to the national title game 2019 michigan state was the preseason number one obviously we didn't have a tournament in 2020 they were projected to be a two or three seed in cassius winston's final year 2018 for kansas they were the preseason number one team this is one of those where it didn't really work out and this might scare you a little bit they were a four seed and they lost in the second round now that team also had to go through i mean you had yudoka zabuki getting injured you had legero vic leaving the team midway through you had some freshmen that didn't totally hit some transfers that it didn't totally hit and yeah sure that could be the case

this year but uh i think a lot had to go wrong for ku that year i think they have better insulation this year because of the trust level that dewan harris and kevin mcculler bring uh 2017 duke was the preseason number one team they ended up getting two seed, made it all the way to the Elite Eight before Kansas beat them. 2016, Duke was also preseason number one. Also got a two seed. This time, though, they lost in the second round. 2015, North Carolina was a one seed. They ended up making the national title game and losing off that buzzer beater shot from Chris Jenkins to Villanova, but oh so close to winning the title.

2014, Kentucky got a one seed. They went undefeated and made it to the final four before losing for the first time 2013 kentucky got only got an eight seed but they made it to the national title game 2012 indiana they got a one seed sweet 16 2011 north carolina they got a one seed made the elite eight 2010 duke one seed sweet 16 2009 kansas one seed unfortunately we're upset in the second round so there's another bad one for Kansas I guess if you look at tournament results uh 2008 North Carolina one seed they won the national champion 2007 North Carolina preseason number one they got a one seed made the final four oh six Florida preseason number one they got a one seed won the title oh five Duke preseason one

seed or I mean no preseason number one got a one one seed, made the sweet 16, 04 Kansas, got a three seed, lost in the first round, and then 03 Connecticut. They got a two seed, ended up winning the national championship. So I didn't need to run through those super fast that you might not have tracked them, but here, I basically, I have summarized those numbers to make this a little easier to digest. You might've heard as I was going through all those different schools, there were a lot of one seeds involved. There were some teams that made the final four, some that went to the national championship, some that were runners up.

So of that total 20, that's the last three season, number one teams in the AP poll. 19 of the 20 would have, or did make the tournament. I'm counting Michigan state. They would have made the tournament. If you you just want to say of the years there were tournaments 18 of the 19 made the tournament north carolina was the aberration but that's not where success is measured if you're kansas on just making the tournament that is an expectation so how about of the the 19 ones where there were actual tournaments so taking away in michigan 12 2019 got one seeds. So, I mean, in theory, KU under Bill Self is getting a one seed half the time. That's an even better percentage than that.

That's almost two thirds of the teams who are preseason number one, get one seeds in the NCAA tournament. So you combine that percentage with Bill Self's percentage. There's a good chance they end up getting a one seed. And then you look at it, three other teams who didn't get one seed got two seeds. And a fourth might have been Michigan State. But that means 15 of the 19 got one or two seeds. Basically, 75% chance, even better than that, they're going to get a top two seed in the tournament if you are preseason number one.

How about NCAA tournament success? Obviously, if it scares you a little bit, which it might, because here's the three past times over the last 20 years kansas has been preseason number one uh you lose in the first round is a three seed in 04 you lose in the second round is a one seed in to 09 010 and then in the uh 2018 19 season you get a four seed and lose the second round so the three times in the past 20 years that kansas has been a preseason number one they have failed to make it out of the second weekend but that makes them such an aberration because 14 of the 19 teams that were preseason number one and made the ncaa tournament or or i guess had a chance to make the tournament because that's even county north carolina if we want to discount them and michigan save for the coveted year 14 of the 18 teams

that made the ncaa tournament that were pre-season number one made the second weekend kansas is three of the four that did not so maybe that makes you feel like you're snake bitten and this is a bad thing if you're kansas that makes me view it more as more 14 of 15 times outside of kansas if you were pre-season number one you made the second weekend and so kansas being oh and three compared to those odds means that a run is probably coming for kansas where you know maybe their next three times the season number one they're going to make the second weekend each and every time at least you would think because that's what the odds say outside of kansas 14 of the 15 that made the ncaa tournament as pre-season number one teams made the second weekend that is a heck of a number also eight teams eight of the last 20 pre-season number one teams made the final four again get

rid of michigan state so it's really eight of the last 19 i mean think about that percent if i tell you going into a year that you have over a 40 chance of making the final four you are taking that to the bank and then six of them made the national title game the last being in the 2021 tournament for the 2020-21 season with gonzaga so just two years ago it happened right um that means again if we're going six of 19, because we're not counting Michigan safe for the COVID year, that means you basically have a one in three chance of making it to the title game. If I gave you a one in three chance to make it to the title game, you're taking it any day of the week.

Usually when you get to the NCAA tournament, the favorite, like there'll be like a 20% chance to win it all. So one in three shot to make the title game is incredible. And then three of the past 20 preseason number one teams won it all. The last was 08, 09 North Carolina. So maybe that feels like it's been a little bit, because think about that.

You had 03 UConn, 06 Florida, 08 North Carolina. You had a stretch where it happened three times in six seasons. Maybe it makes you feel like they're due for that to happen again to where maybe that could come back around. But again, if I tell you, again, discounting Michigan State, you have a 3-19, which would be about a 15% chance, a little above that, 15% to 20% chance to win the title,

that's pretty good odds. So all of those things speak well to the idea that if you're preseason number one on most as you would imagine it means you have a lot of talent and you're a good team and it hasn't always worked out that way for kansas but the odds would tell you that that is going to kind of bounce in the right direction for ku this season let's finish up i've got a fun little debate who has the better chance at making it into the rafters at Allen Fieldhouse? Kevin McCuller or Hunter Dickinson?

That next with Locked on Jayhawks. Finishing things up with Locked on Jayhawks. Who has a better chance for the rafters? Fun little thing to finish out the show for the rest of the week here.

Kevin McCuller or Hunter Dickinson? Now there is a set criteria from KU in the past about if you are a national player of the year, if you are a consensus first team All-American, or if you are a four-time All-American, then you get into the rafters or a final four MOP. So if you win basically MVP of the NASHP and stuff. stuff um that has been kind of opened up a little bit more by bill self who has since kind of said like if you win the big 12 player of the year that's usually good enough for to get in the discussion there where we can make an exception for you um i think also if you are a two-time first team all-american even if it's not consensus you get up there as well like there's a lot of

different stipulations but if you acquire x or if you achieve x then you're going to make it so for hunter dickinson that's his shot, right? I guess hypothetically, Hunter Dickinson could be around at KU for two years. And if that happened, it becomes a very real conversation. But if he wins national player of the year, if he's a consensus first team All-American, he goes up by the letter of the law. With Kevin McCuller, you have the advantage here. If Hunter Dickinson is only going to be at KU for one year, you'd a second year of play but is the first year enough right could it just be kind of a filler year because you didn't have the awards um where you're talking Kevin McCuller is uh what

third team all big 12 last year was first team all defense um I think pretty clearly like it's to a point where Kevin McCuller would have to have that same type of season of the one year of Hunter Dickinson having now maybe McCuller has a chance to you know do something special in the tournament maybe for Kevin McCuller if he was big 12 player of the year like if Hunter Dickinson's big 12 player of the year but he is a third team all-american and KU loses in the elite eight probably that one year not going to be good enough to put him up there. But with Kevin McCuller, if they make it to the Elite Eight and he wins Big 12 Player of the Year in what would be his second year in the Big 12

and he had some of those other ancillary awards, maybe it becomes more of a conversation there. Or maybe if you make it to the Final Four in that situation for that to happen. So I think in Dickinson's case, he has the better shot to do it because he's going to be more favored to be a first-, all American and, or to be a national player of the year candidate and, or win the award. So I would go with him, but in the case that you don't win one of those things, there are more avenues and opportunities for McCuller to have that.

Now, at the end of the day, odds are probably stacked against it, that either one gets their jerseys retired, because that means that you have to win a title and win MOP like those things are very hard to do it's a low percentage to do that it's a low percentage to try to win national player of the year I mean the list of KU players who have done it it's what like Frank Mason I think Nick Collison won one of the six um Danny Manning obviously want like it's a very short list of players who have been able to do that at KU as great of a school as it has been. There are a lot of other good basketball players. So chances are against either of those happening.

But I think right now, and lean, if you have to pick one of the two, you go with Hunter Dickinson. All right, that'll do it for this episode of locked on Jayhawks. We'll be back later next week, probably on Tuesday with Monday off for Memorial day.

Might do a Grant Nelson deep dive because it seems like there's still some chatter about could KU be in on Grant Nelson? We'll discuss that next week. This has been Locked on Jayhawks. You can find us anywhere you get any of your podcasts. You can also find us like and subscribe to the show on YouTube. See you next time with LOJ. Later.