Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - MIDTERMS: Self-Scouting Darryn Peterson, Kohl Rosario & Jayden Dawson | What Roles Will They Play?

Starting point is 00:00:00 Darren Peterson, Cole Rosario, and Jaden Dawson all figured to have huge roles on this team this season. And right now, there's kind of a big question mark of what that role is going to be for all of those players coming into Big 12 players. Plus that is you get to some more midterm self-scouting evaluations on today's episode of L.J. You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks, part of the Locked On. podcast network your team every day what's going on derrick johnson here with locked on jhawks part of the locked on podcast network now the number one sports podcast network thanks so much for joining us on today's every episode of the show and we're going to be breaking down more self-scouting midterms for k u basketball players darren peterson col rsario jaden dawson all players for k u to different levels

Starting point is 00:00:55 we're expected to have big roles be part of rotation potential starters and BKU's best player. And now there's kind of question marks on what that role is going to be for each player, for different reasons headed into Big 12 play. We're going to break them all down and what they've done to this point in time on today's episode of the show, which is brought to you by Ruggiette. And you can check out Ruehette if you can think about taking the next step. Now is the time.

Starting point is 00:01:18 Head to Ruggiat.com slash locked on college to get 15% off your order for a limited time. Rousiette ready, feel present, feel confident, feel ready. So let's get started with Darren Peterson. Obviously, the question of what will Darren Peterson's role be over the Big 12 portion of the season, over the second half of the season, that just comes down to health. It comes down to health. How much is he and his camp willing to play through, right? Is 95% okay? Does it have to be 100%?

Starting point is 00:01:45 And how can you get back to 100? Right. Those are kind of the questions there. And then if we do see Peterson back again and he gets injured one more time is the third strike, the one that kind of gets you out. But so far, Peterson has been a player who, when he's played for KU, he's KU's best player, right? 19.3 points per game in just 26 minutes is amazing. 3.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.8 blocks. He's shooting 53 from the field, 42 from 3, 77 at the foul line.

Starting point is 00:02:16 He's been great when he's played for KU. Unfortunately, that's been only four games. It hasn't been all the time for Kansas, right? But you look at it overall in some of the advanced metrics, you know, he's still in the 83rd percentile in RAPM. He's in the 99th percentile in Winshares per 40 minutes. This is nationally. He is in the 100th percentile in P.E.R., basically his efficiency.

Starting point is 00:02:39 And even despite missing all those games, he is in the 82nd percentile in Wins-Bove replacement player. If you get a healthy Darren Peterson, you are legitimately getting arguably the best player in the country. I mean, he's in the running, even through missing all these games to be the number one pick in the NBA draft. He's in the 94th percentile, true shooting percentage. He's in the 99th percentile in usage rate.

Starting point is 00:02:59 So he's doing it at a high volume and still making them at a high level, 85th percentile in three point percentage. He has just been awesome when we've seen him. Unfortunately, we just haven't seen him enough. But what else has gone into Darren Peterson's game so far this season? Obviously, we know about the scoring. Like I mentioned, some of three-point shooting. He's also in the 91st percentile in two-point percentage.

Starting point is 00:03:20 We know all that stuff. Did you know he's also in the 94th percentile in turnover percentage? and he's in the 91st percentile in assist to turnover percentage. You know, I don't know that we necessarily think of, like, we know he's a good ball handler and he's somebody who's KU's basically lead ball handler when he's out there. I don't think, like the biggest thing you realize when he's not in the game is, okay, they don't have the scoring and the shooting. His ability to draw attention from other teams, draw double teams, be able to weave

Starting point is 00:03:49 between defenders and in a crowd without turning the ball over is also super important for this Kansas team and has been really good this season. I think that's been maybe the most underrated part of his game so far has been his ability to avoid those turnovers, albeit on kind of a smaller sample size here. It's interesting too because he's in the 86th percentile in fouls drawn per 40 minutes. So he's done a good job of that too, but they're just regular fouls. And I think that comes down to the ball handling as well. Like maybe players are trying to get a reach on him or trying to get a steal on him.

Starting point is 00:04:22 And it turns out to be a reach foul because he's really good at kind of avoid. that because even though he's in the 86th percentile in player fouls drawn per 40 minutes, he's only in the 37th percentile in free throw attempt rate, right? So what that tells you is if you're looking at something for him to improve over the back half of the season, can he get to the free throw line more often? Now, I think a part of that comes down to the health because what we have seen out there is when he's played through the injury, he still had his same shot making ability. He hasn't had the same explosiveness. And that's where if you're explosive, you're going to your guy, you're going to attack the rim, and it's going to put the defender who's on your

Starting point is 00:04:59 back or to your side in a bad position or help defender has to come over, and then you draw foul and go to the free throw line. That's something that I think gets better if the health gets better for Darren Peterson here. I also think you see it here. He's in the 32nd percentile for the percentage of his points that come on the fast break, right? Like maybe not being fully explosive ability to get there. He's only in the 33rd percentile for the percentage of his points that are coming in the paint the part of that is just he's such a good you know mid range and three point shooter that you don't always have to do that but i think all those things add up to that idea that and this is kind of fun if you can get him healthy fully it's not just that you get him back it's the idea that

Starting point is 00:05:37 there's another level here it's the idea that the darren peterson you've seen so far that's already been a good player for k u gets better on the defense friend because you're more explosive gets better at scoring in the paint it's the free throw line more often gets even better at scoring in fast break and it turns him from what already has been an outstanding player to watch and the limited sample size into one that is like the perfect freshman basically is what you're kind of looking at there if you're KU. He's also been really good on the defensive glass that's been helpful for KU to have a bigger guard who can grab defensive rebounds.

Starting point is 00:06:08 It feels like that's kind of a, like the best bill self teams, I don't know, seem to have point guards who also get rebounds, who get four or five rebounds per game. Like Frank Mason's getting your four or five rebounds per game, for instance. So he's in the 74th percentile in defensive rebound rate. That's helpful for KU too, right? As much as we think of the Yukon game, KU stalling out on offense and the impact he would have had if he was there, KU also really struggled on the defensive glass in that game. Probably would have been nice to have Darren Peterson just one extra potential rebounder out there

Starting point is 00:06:36 that maybe could have grabbed one or two extra defensive rebounds for you that game. And maybe that would have been the difference, right? I think the defense is pretty amazing considering your, I don't know, like playing not 100% on that end and 75th percentile on steel rate, 96% on block rate, like that is pretty incredible what you've been able to do there. Now, something else that you could point to if you're like, okay, you know, you're nitpicking or what could improve. Well, 18th percent on offensive rebound rate, but even saying that, it's like, that's not his role.

Starting point is 00:07:10 His role isn't to grab offensive rebounds, right? So from that perspective, it's like, is that really kind of necessary there? But overall for KU, interestingly enough, he actually has a negative on off rating right now. And the reason why is very simple. Three of his four games that he played are against better opponents than like he doesn't, he had the Green Bay game, played very small minutes in that game. He didn't have the luxury that like some of these other guys have had against, you know, Davidson and some of these teams to, oh, if you're on the court for when KU builds a 20 point lead,

Starting point is 00:07:42 that's going to help your net rating. He hasn't had those games. It also comes down to just the second half of the North Carolina game. So I wouldn't read into that necessarily too much if you're KU. But he's definitely somebody who changes the offense, right? I mean, the on-off difference on offense, KU goes from about 112 points per 100 possessions when he's off the floor to 121 points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor. So the offense difference is real.

Starting point is 00:08:13 The defense has gotten worse. But again, I think that that really just boils down to he's only played four games, only eight halves of basketball. And if one of those halves was a disaster, which it was against North Carolina, it's going to rue the day. So KU is obviously a much better team with him. The biggest thing here is just this. You can just need them to get healthy over the back half this season. Now, if we're talking better, worse, or the same than our preseason expectations, which we've been doing and check out our other episode. Thank you, everydayers, if you already did, talking some of the pleasant surprises so far for KU.

Starting point is 00:08:41 I think in terms of the efficiency, the per play basis, Peterson's been as advertised to me. But if you're if you're viewing it from a standpoint of overall value, you've been only given four games. And that standpoint, you would have to say it's below what you expected, but it's not like it's out of his hands, I guess at this point. So the guy we've seen has been super incredible and super fun to watch. And I hope we get to see more of him moving forward. We'll just kind of wait and see on where that one goes, but certainly from performance perspective, what he's done when he's out there is really incredible and really impactful and fun to watch.

Starting point is 00:09:22 Let's get to a couple guys who, they're questions of what their role is going to be in Big 12 play for KU. It's not about injury. It's about are they going to be part of the rotation? It's about can they take advantage when they get those opportunities? Cole Rosario and Jaden Dawson will get to Cole next. This episode of the show is brought to you by Ruggiet. Let's talk about something most men don't bring up, but absolutely should.

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Starting point is 00:10:39 of this series, three-part series, kind of breaking down individually how all the players have done so far in the first half of the season for KU. And don't forget to you can join our Everydayer Club where you can get access to ad-free audio for Locked-on Jayhawks with Apple, Spotify, and all the major podcast apps, an invite to members only locked-on every day or club, the Discord server where I and other Locked-on hosts are talking with die-hard fans and sports all day long, exclusive access to national bonus shows and plenty more. You can visit locked onpodcast.com

Starting point is 00:11:13 slash every dayer. That's locked on podcast.com slash everydayer or check that out in the show notes. Okay, next up here is Cole Rosario. Rosario in 17 minutes per game, played all 13 for KU, five and a half points per game, 1.9 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.2 blocks compared to 0.7 turnovers. He's shooting 43.5 from the floor, 28 from the three point line, and 67 at the free throw line. And it's been a very interesting season because for Rosario, he comes in late

Starting point is 00:11:42 as a reclass player. He's the same age as the normal, you know, high school freshman class or whatever you want to say. But it is a bit of a whirlwind to not think you're going to college and then all of a sudden you're joining things and you're joining late in summer where you're not getting those extra reps with the team. But he impresses so much. And he ends up starting at the beginning of the season for KU. And there was just kind of a shooting funk and whether it was just, you know, not having the full confidence or whatever it was, it just didn't come together. Recently, we've seen some good flashes. You played very well in the Davidson game, made some shots. And the question is, is that going to carry over to the second half of Big 12 play? Because right now, if you look at

Starting point is 00:12:20 the Bill self-rotation, Rosario is kind of a fringe guy. Like, when things tighten up now, though we're in Big 12 play, will Rosario be a part of every game rotation? We'll be 10 minutes, we'll be 20. Or will he be a spot minute guy? Will he be a, hey, this game you didn't play? this game you played five minutes because you missed your first two shots this game you played 20 because you made your first two and we needed the shooting out there like what level are we talking about here that rissario is going to give him in the second half and obviously you know what he earns on the court is going to be what he gets it's in kyu's best interest for him to earn as much as possible that doesn't mean you just throw him out there just for the sake of oh well it's in

Starting point is 00:12:59 our best interest like the best interest involves him playing to his ceiling to earn that role because if he does earn that role, that means he's playing well. And if he's shooting the ball well and making athletic plays, like that's something that can obviously help any team in the country, let alone this Kansas team. Overall in the season, 55th percentile nationally in RAPM. He's in the 71st percentile nationally in windchairs per 40, including this is actually 89th percentile defensive winchairs per 40.

Starting point is 00:13:24 I think some of that is team driven, though, which makes sense with some of the starting lineups he's been a part of that have been really good on the defensive end of the floor. Only 39th percentile in PER, so below average, there, 58th percentile in wins above replacement player. It's a very interesting profile for Colrosario when you look through some of the stats because he's in the 72nd percentile for effective field goal percentage. But it hasn't always translated to the three-point shot.

Starting point is 00:13:49 The reason the effective field goal percentage looks so good is because he is shooting 93% on two-point shots. He's in the 100th percentile in two-point shooting. And what's the reason why is not that he's taking a bunch of hard twos, is that he's taking the wide open layups. he gets in transition or off a cut and he's making dunks off of like Alloops and stuff like that, right? Which is helpful. It's valuable to have somebody who can do those things. But it doesn't necessarily under like if you just look at the profile and go,

Starting point is 00:14:18 oh, 72nd percent on effective fuel percentage of say very efficient offensive player. Well, ish, ish, would be the right way of putting it. He's only in the 32nd percent on three point percentage. Now, that was the importance of that Davidson game where he really played well, had double digit points. if he can get that three-point shot from the rest of the season, I don't know what it would finish at, but for the rest of the season, if he could shoot, I don't know, 33% even from three-point range,

Starting point is 00:14:41 from here to the rest season, 33, 34%. I think that would be enough because there are some other things here that you point to and say those keep you or get you on the floor with Bill self as long as you can hit your shots because that is your role on the offensive end. He's in the 92nd percentile and offensive rebound rate. That's for guards, obviously, but that's a really good number to be at, right? He's getting hustle plays. He's getting an excellent.

Starting point is 00:15:02 possessions for Kansas. He's a low usage player, 33rd percentile usage rate, doesn't turn it over much, 64th percentile turnover rate. So you're not turning it over much. You don't have to be used a bunch. You can just be kind of a fifth guy for the offense where you don't need the ball in your hands, just make your threes. That's kind of the bare minimum there, right? But you're going to get some offensive rebounds in there too. He's also 67th percentile for guards in block rate, which kind of continues that trend among KU players. So there's some things there. Some of the hustle plays, like that's part of his game. I think some of the lack of shooting, like you didn't see as much of the hustle plays. Maybe that bled over into that a little

Starting point is 00:15:37 bit. But I think we heard too in the post game, like Bill Self talking about Col Rosario that like, he's like, he just needs to be a kid. He's in the gym too much, which how often do you ever hear a coach or Bill Self say that about someone. But I think it gets into the idea here. Cole Rosario is loved by Bill Self because of how hard he works and because some of the little things he can do. And I think that tells you how hard he works that there is hope that he is going to break out in Big 12 play, that he's going to continue work on his game during Christmas break, that he could be in store for a huge Big 12 play for KU, right? Could he average 8, 10 points per game during Big 12 play? At the same point in time, I think the flip of that, the bill

Starting point is 00:16:20 self saying he needs to be a kid some more, kind of shows a little bit of what we suspected was going on during some of his slower start to the season, that it didn't feel like it was an athletic thing. It didn't feel like, it felt like more of a confidence thing. Like you saw some of the missed threes. They weren't just missed threes. They were like really badly missed threes. It just felt like not having full confidence in himself.

Starting point is 00:16:42 Like, I don't know, that he needed to kind of have that confidence booster. And you wonder if that's what Bill Self's talking about. Like, go be a kid, go out to a party, go relax for a little to where maybe that can take your mind off basketball for a little. and help you with the confidence side of things. Who knows, right? Maybe that's what he's talking about. But if he can just shoot the three well,

Starting point is 00:17:04 and you start looking at it between Jamari McDowell, who has done well in his role, Jamari plays well in defense, he hits threes. That's basically the rub. I think McDowell probably a better defender at this stage than Rosario. Though I think Rosario would give you more opportunity for steals and blocks than McDowell,

Starting point is 00:17:21 but McDowell probably a more solid defender. McDowell at this point, a better three-point shooter, more consistent, too, than Rosario. But if Rosario can close the gap from three, you get an added element of athleticism and rebounding from Rosario that you don't get from McDowell. And it's not necessarily neither or, especially if Peterson's hurt, you're going to need both guys that, right? Now, the other thing I'm kind of looking at here for Rosario beyond the three-point shooting

Starting point is 00:17:43 is can you add, I don't know, maybe this is never just the creation or the ask of the role, but 16th percentile in assists per 40 minutes, 14th percentile and assist percentage. Again, not really creating much. Like, is there any level of him creating offense for KU that could be unlocked in the second half of the season? That would be helpful. And then the other thing is here, he's obviously the good enough athlete to crash the offensive glass. Can you start getting some more defensive rebounds out of him? He's only in the sixth percentile nationally in defensive rebound percentage for guards.

Starting point is 00:18:13 Could he at least be like 40th percentile on the defensive end? I think that would be kind of interesting there. But I think we saw some flashes of why you would like Colrosario in the first half. Unfortunately, if we were to say, you know, better, worse, or the same to expectations in the preseason, I think when we first added him, it's honestly better. Like when they first added him, if you would have told me he was going to be playing 17 minutes per game through the first half of the season, I would have been like, oh, okay, so he impressed. That would be better.

Starting point is 00:18:40 If we're viewing it from a standpoint of better, worse, or the same from when we started the season and the hype had probably gone too far, it would probably be a little bit below that. But he's also somebody who I think has a real opportunity more than a lot of other guys to have a much better second half than their first half. What about Jaden Dawson? Kind of a similar situation, older player, but he starts to find his footing in Big 12 play. This episode of the show is brought to you by Fanduals Sportsbook. Fridays always feel different during the college basketball season, and Fandul is making them

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Starting point is 00:20:14 We just did one talking about some of the pleasant surprises for this roster with Melvin Council, Tray White and Jemari McDowell. These three players, obviously we've still got Florida Bedunga, Bryson Tiller, Tito, and Marco Jackson. So we'll do that on a final episode of this series. Also on an episode where we were talking with some of our other Lockdown at Big 12 hosts about some of this weird guys getting drafted in the NBA, going to college and all that sort of things,

Starting point is 00:20:39 and Kansas possibly interested in somebody who knows. So broke that down as well. So make sure to check out that episode also here with Lockdown Jayhawks. All right. let's talk jaden dawson so jaden dawson somebody who has had to deal with a couple injuries he had an injury at the beginning of the season during exhibition play and then he gets injured trying to dunk in warm-ups for kU during the players era tournament so he misses the some of the exhibition play and that started him behind where he's only playing 11 minutes per game through the first two games he starts

Starting point is 00:21:11 to ramp up the level of play he's placed 20 against a and m corpus christ he plays 24 against prison Then he plays 28 minutes in that Duke game for Kansas. Obviously, Peterson out. But then just five minutes against Notre Dame. Then he has the injury. And it just never really materialized since then. 10 minutes total between Yukon, Missouri, NC State played 15 against House and 16 against Davidson. So maybe it is starting to ramp up.

Starting point is 00:21:38 But he is now over five from three over his last three games. and the three-point shooting just hasn't come along to the idea of what you would kind of hope it to be. Now, I did think he played well in the Davidson game, only one of three shooting, O of two from three, that didn't go well, and that is one of the main roles he's being asked of, so you need those to go down. But he had two points, two rebounds, two assists, one block, two steals, filled up the stat sheet in 16 minutes outside of the main shots. Overall in the season, three points, one rebound, one assist per game, only 32% from the field right now for Jaden Dawson, and only 23% from three-point range. This is a player who coming in, you know,

Starting point is 00:22:15 you go back to his time at Loyola, Chicago, he's shooting 41% from three in small playing time, but 14 games as a freshman, 26 games as a sophomore, 37% from three, and then 32 games as a junior with 7.4, three-point attempts for games, high volume, 36% from three. So even if you want to say, okay, it's a jump in competition, the three-point shooting is going to go down,

Starting point is 00:22:40 or, you know, his volume's going to go down a little bit or whatever. Like, you wouldn't expect 23%. You might expect, like, okay, maybe he'll have a bad year. Maybe it'll be low 30s. But like, you would not have expected this. Now, you look at it so far this season, some of the advanced numbers, 64th percentile in RAPM. He's in the 73rd percentile windchairs per 40 still. He is in the end, one of the reasons why 95th percentile in defensive windchairs per 40 minutes.

Starting point is 00:23:06 He's only in the 33rd percent on PER, which makes sense with the low shoe. numbers and he's in the 53rd percentile in wins above replacement players. It is interesting because you look at the, I guess, numbers on his profile. He is in the 92nd percentile three point attempt rate. So he's shooting them. He's doing a good job of being like, hey, this is my role. I'm not going to shy away from it. I will take the shots.

Starting point is 00:23:31 He's just not making them. 18th percentile three point percentage. And like, I guess is the biggest difference right now between McDowell, Rossario and Dawson, like we could point to, McDowell is, like I said, been stout on the defense man. I think he's done a good job there. But at the end of the day, is the biggest difference is that McDowell is shooting 42% from three, Dawson's 23 and Rosario's in the high 20s. Like, what if you flip those? If McDowell is shooting 23% from three, is he playing at all? If he is, it's spot minutes. If Dawson's shooting 42% from three, is he playing more? Yeah,

Starting point is 00:24:04 probably. Same with Rosario, right? So at the end of the day, that is kind of the determining factor and who's going to be higher in the role at this point. But, you know, with Dawson, too, you wonder, what else can you bring for the team? Because that is something where it's like, okay, with McDowell, you know the defense is there. With Rosario, you know you're getting offensive rebounding, athleticism, dunking transition play. With Dawson, I think there are moments where he's good on the defensive end and he's actually in the 86 percent pound steal rate. So maybe that is the answer, right? For a team that doesn't get enough steals, he can be that guy who gets them more steals and the overall team metrics on his defense look pretty good right is that the answer here

Starting point is 00:24:41 because you look at it too and whether it's i mean he's in the 90th percentile and two point percentage but he's not taking very many right like it's like okay i'll get a wide open layup so um i think that kind of becomes the question you're not getting as much rebounding here fourth percentile offensive rebound rate 22nd percentile defensive rebound rate i think dawson's path is more of the McDowell path, right? Again, Rosario is different in that he has the athleticism to throw down dunks, Alleyoop, transition play, grab offensive rebounds. He has that level of athleticism that maybe Dawson and McDowell are still solid athletes.

Starting point is 00:25:16 I don't want to take away from that, but it's just a different level of what you're throwing out there for. Whereas with Dawson and McDowell, the idea is this, make your threes play defense, and that's kind of your role. And again, McDowell is shooting almost 20% better from three point range. I haven't had a problem with Dawson's defense necessarily. I think there's a time or two here I could point to where maybe got beat on a back cut or beat off the dribble.

Starting point is 00:25:38 But I think overall he's been solid. And like I said, he's getting steals at the very least. But McDowell's probably been a little bit better there. I think that's just kind of what it comes down to is the three point shooting. And so this is one where if you're asking like better, worse or the same from the preseason, this is worse than I think we were expecting in the preseason. I do think some of it is, you know, the injury at the beginning of the season put in behind the eight ball. And then just as he was starting to get ramped up again, you kind of get reset back.

Starting point is 00:26:04 And that's unfortunate. But I think the biggest disappointment here is the three-point shooting. You expected him to come in and be one of, if not your best three-point shooters on the team. And that has not happened so far to this point in time. Can that happen in the second half? Is there a little bit of Nick Timberlake syndrome here? I don't know. Like, I don't know what's necessarily causing it.

Starting point is 00:26:21 Is it a confidence thing? Is it a crap luck thing? Is it just not adjusting to your role? Or sometimes I call it like Charlie Moore syndrome. him like charlie more was a good player like everywhere he went besides kansas i don't know if it's just the lights are too bright or whatever it was um but that's kind of the question here and like i i think an ideal version of jaden dawson who's hitting yeah 33 34 35 percent from three and he's getting new steals on the defense event that can be valuable for at least 10 15 minutes a

Starting point is 00:26:49 game so i hope he figures it out i think he can be a helpful player for this team but among the three players we we've kind of compared a lot here with McDowell, Dawson, and Rosario. It almost feels like McDowell at this point has the highest floor for the second half of the season. It feels like Rosario has the highest ceiling for the second half at the season. Dawson's probably right in the middle of both of those conversations, if we're being honest. But are you going to be able to figure it out, right? Because I would imagine things have not gone according to plan for him in the first half, right?

Starting point is 00:27:23 You go home at Christmas. Your family's like, hey, what's going on with this? Like, you know, I thought you were going to yada, yada, yada. can you keep your head to the grindstone and figure it out in the second half? Because I still do think guys who can play defense, get steals, make threes. That can be helpful to some degree for any good team in the country. And we'll see if Jayden Dawson can get that figured out. I thought it'll know for this episode of Locked on Jayhawks.

Starting point is 00:27:46 You can find our show anywhere you get your podcast, including on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe to the show. See you next time with another third part of this series, breaking down Florida Budunga and Bryson Tiller. Marco Jackson.

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - MIDTERMS: Self-Scouting Darryn Peterson, Kohl Rosario & Jayden Dawson | What Roles Will They Play?

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