Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - MORE TALENTED THAN LAST YEAR? Leipold's Kansas Jayhawks DEFY Odds with Surprising Talent Upgrade

Starting point is 00:00:00 Despite losing a host of all conference studs from last year's team, I'm going to tell you why this year's Kansas team actually might be a little bit more talented than the 2024 version. You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks, part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. What's going on? Derek Johnson here. This is Locked on Jayhawks. Thanks for making it your first listen every day. And thank you to the everydayers listening to each and every show.

Starting point is 00:00:37 We're watching on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe to the show for free as well as anywhere. You get your audio side of things with the podcast. And on today's edition of LOJ, we're talking just how talented is this KU football roster? Because by one, I guess, metric or score, you can make an argument that this actually is a more talented team than last year. And that sounds crazy to say based on all the accolades that some of those players had. But I don't know, but we'll let the numbers do the speaking on this one. We'll also get into some of the latest news to round things out at the end of the show, including with a former KU football player with Austin Booker, some recruiting news and plenty more coming at you on the show, which is brought to you by GameTime. Download the GameTime app, create an account, and use code locked on college for $20 off your first purchase with game time. Okay, so just how talented is this KU football roster and how does it compare to, you know, last year's squad, but previous year's squads in general? Because I think

Starting point is 00:01:38 certainly you look at last year's team for Kansas as being one that, yes, it probably under, well, it did underachieve to what the talent was on the roster. Some of that, you know, you can explain in different ways, but was a talented team. And the core of those players were from the year before when they won nine games. It was a talented roster, you know, from from KU speaking and by KU standards. And so the natural inclination would be, oh, my gosh, you lose Devin Neal, you lose Kobe Bryant, you lose Mellow Dotson, you lose Marvin Grant, you lose J.B. Brown, you lose your three starting receivers. How could this team be more talented than what they were a season ago? And yes, maybe last year's team had more experience, but from a pure talent standpoint, this one might

Starting point is 00:02:24 actually be a little bit better. So how we wanted to devise and look into this, we wanted to Bud Elliott, who does a great job on cover three, which is a podcast talking college football, does something called the blue chip ratio. And the blue chip ratio is something he created in 2013, which is, it's more so used to devise who can win a national championship, you know, when we get to March Madness and a bracket pick and we talk about who can and can't win the national title based on these precursors. But is, but Elliot has has created this, you know, formula, basically that just looks at, you know, the number of four and five-star recruits that a team has over their, you know, incoming recruiting classes,

Starting point is 00:03:09 and that basically they have to have more than, you know, 50 percent to, like every team who's won the title since 2013 has had a higher than 50 percent. It's basically one, a very simple way of looking at roster talent, right? not the BL end all, because there are, especially nowadays with the transfer portal, that's a different way to add roster talent. But usually high school recruiting is like, I don't know, it represents a ceiling, like a four-star high school recruit is a little different than a four-star transfer recruit.

Starting point is 00:03:38 The four-star transfer crew is probably going to, like, very high chance will be a highly productive player. But the four-star high school recruit maybe has a much lower floor, but maybe has a higher ceiling to be like a high-round NFL draft pick. So that's why they look at it. And typically, it's, it's very helpful for the national champions, but something but Elliot talks about is that it's not as helpful for devising which teams are going to make the playoff, how many teams are going to win a bowl game. Are you going to go over under on your win total? Like he talks about that, yeah, it's only really applicable for who's going to like win the title and who has the requisite for that. So, you know, you do take this with a grain of salt that me going over these numbers for what they are or what they would be for Kansas are not going to be as helpful. I'm more so I'm interested in I'm not from that perspective. I'm more so

Starting point is 00:04:26 interested in them just from the standpoint where we started this conversation. K, you lost all these really talented players, Devon, Neal, Kobe so on to where the question coming into the year is, oh, I know they had like, you know, made bad luck in one score games and yada, yada, yada, but they're going to be less talented

Starting point is 00:04:42 than they were a season ago. And that's where I want to use this to say that is actually false. Yes, again, maybe it's less experience, but it's not less talent on this year's team for KU football. So what we did is we went ahead and put together the blue chip ratio, which again is defined as by Bud Elliott with CBS, four and five star recruits compared to the number of recruits that you have in a given class.

Starting point is 00:05:11 And I also wanted to get a different look, just look at how many players in the recruiting classes are three stars are higher because I think that's been something too that this this lance light well like obviously Kansas isn't really in a ton of four and five star recruits in football but we've seen I think a higher consistency of the three star recruits with Lance light pull than maybe you saw in previous seasons to where that number is rising as well so I'm going to share my screen here on YouTube and I'll do the best to you know present this if you're listening on the audio side of things but pretty much for Kansas the overall, like you look at the high school recruits, recruiting classes that they've brought in under the Lance Leipoldera.

Starting point is 00:05:57 Every season of Lance Leipoldera, so class of 22 and on, they've brought in a three star higher percentage of 87.5% or higher. Their blue chip ratio, the last three years or the last two years, right, 2026 is still ongoing, but coming into this roster, 6.25 in 2011.7, 6% in 2026% in. in 2024. There's no other seasons that surpassed the 6.25% until you go back to 2011 with Turner Gill, which was 9.38%. So 2024 was better than that. And the three-star percentage, again, being in the green 90% or higher, if you look at the pre-Lance LIPOL days, you have a year with, I guess, Emmett Jones, less miles, where they had about 91% of their recruiting class in 2021 was three stars or higher. And I think that bared itself out, right?

Starting point is 00:06:51 K, you had a lot of success over these recent seasons with a lot of those players who were in that class. You look at the class of 2020 and 2019. That was hovering around 80%. And then you look at the classes from 2011 through 2018. Only one of them surpassed the 60% clip for three plus star recruit. And that was Turner Gale in 2011. So it's like, oh, it makes sense. Kansas didn't have good coaching and they didn't have, you know, super talented rosters.

Starting point is 00:07:15 But now the beauty of it is you have good coaching with Lance Leibold and you have more talented rosters than in recent years. So I also wanted to take a look at given the high school classes, putting it all together, what each team would have. So if you're watching on YouTube, this would be the column over to the right side here where it is basically taking into account, okay, KU's high school recruiting. I added some transfer stuff, which we'll get to here in a second, but over the year. So basically, if you're looking at the 2025 season for KU,

Starting point is 00:07:49 the blue chip ratio is the combination of their class of 2025, class of 2024, class of 2023, and class of 22. Their four most recent classes, obviously, there are exceptions with, you know, players taking red shirts, being fifth year guys, whatever. But for the most part, it's those four classes put together. And you see if you base it off of that, so that's just four and five star recruits, which obviously is a small minority of the KU roster. But Kansas in 2024 had a 4.48% blue chip ratio.

Starting point is 00:08:18 In 2025, it's 4.92%, meaning that the blue chip ratio is actually higher on this year's team than it was last year. If we just look at the three-year blue chip ratio, because that's something I wanted to put into this, given the fact that, okay, if you bring in players, you know, from the class of, you know, 2025 who are rated highly, but how much are they actually going to play on the 2025 team? So for the three-year blue chip ratio, we looked at the three previous classes. So for the 2025 team, that would be the class of 2024, class of 2023, and the class of 2022, not even counting this year's class. And the three-year blue chip ratio, 4.4%. Last year, it was at 2%. So you're doubling up on that number for KU.

Starting point is 00:09:06 Then you look at the three-plus star percentage ratio. Kansas this year will have a percentage of those four incoming recruiting classes at 93.4. Last year, it was at 92.5%. So a little bit higher there. Again, if we look at just the three classes, not the incoming class, but the three before it, 22, 23, 24, 93% for KU. If we look at last year's three-year incoming class for three-star higher percentage, 90%. So again, you're higher in 2025. And by the way, if you're watching on YouTube, yes, the 2026 class, that gets you really excited because those numbers are really, really good with that could possible be. So then I also wanted to add in the idea of, you know, the transfers coming into this.

Starting point is 00:09:50 So I want to get to that when we come back from the break here. This is Locked on Jayhawks. Today's episode of the show is brought to you by Game Time. We've all been there, logging on early, waiting forever for concert tickets to go on sale, only to lose your spot for a show you've been dying to see. Live music should be about making memories, not dealing with the stress of ticket shopping. That's where Game Time comes in. And it should be no different if you're buying sports tickets, right?

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Starting point is 00:11:10 Take the guesswork out of buying show tickets with GameTime, download the GameTime app, create an account and use code Locked-on College for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply again, create an account and redeem code Locked-on College, L-O-C-E-O-N-C-L-L-E-G-E-E-E-G-E for $20 off. Download the GameTime app today, last minute, take its lowest price, guarantee. Hi, Vicks is joining us on this episode of Lockdown Jayhawks. Don't for you make Locked-on College football or Locked-on College basketball, your second list in every day. So we're going over some of the roster talent numbers for KU. And just to reiterate, the roster talent for KU, if you look at the blue chip ratio,

Starting point is 00:11:49 the percentage of your four and five-star recruits in the incoming four high school classes, the three-year blue-chip ratio where you're just looking at the not the incoming high school class, but the three years before it for the guys who are more developed, you look at the percentage of three-star or higher recruits over the previous four or three classes. KU's this year team in 2025 bests the team in 2024 in, all of those categories. So, hence, the 2025 roster is at least a little bit more talented than the 2024 version. Now, what if we factor in for this with transfers as well?

Starting point is 00:12:26 So we decided to take a look at obviously the transfer ratings. And these are all through 24-7 sports, I should probably mention, with their transfer ratings here, as well as the high school ratings. So with 24-7 sports, the high school or the transfers, we wanted to take a look at their high school ratings because this is based on the idea of what is your true talent, so to speak. This isn't as much about production, which is more what sometimes the transfer ratings end up being, wanted it to be more about potential, right? And potential doesn't always mean everything, but you know, you give a good coaching staff like Lance Leibold, more potential. last year type of seasons are going to happen less often than 20, 23 type of seasons, in my opinion, for a school like Kansas.

Starting point is 00:13:14 So you look at the transfer portal, and Kansas obviously bringing in a much higher blue chip ratio of transfer portal players than they are from the high school ranks. That's their opportunity to get some of those former four in one case five-star recruits. And Logan Brown is the answer there. And so if we look at a combination of blue chip ratio for, transfer plus high school players, you look at it, and this goes back, the transfer rankings go back, I think, to 2021. So you have 3.57 in 2021, 5.5% in 2022, 6.8% in 2020,

Starting point is 00:13:52 13.0% in 2024 and 12.6% in 2025. So again, even if you're factoring in the transfers, this roster, by that metric, more talented than last year. The final one, is just that three year of that same idea. And that is actually one that is lower than 2024, 13.2% to 12.9%. But every other number we're talking about here, it belongs to the 2025 team, that it's more talented. And even if you want to say it's similarly talented, but the 2024 team had more experience. Okay, but the experience didn't matter in the one score games.

Starting point is 00:14:28 And so it's like, isn't that supposed to be the whole idea of the experience? And so if it didn't end up mattering, then why? should it matter now? Just give me the pure talent, give me Lance Leipold. And yes, there are certain positions where experience matters. I think Kansas has it at quarterback. That's one of those where it does matter. Offensive line is another one and that kind of is a question mark for Kansas at this point of time, but like you still do have some experienced guys like Kobe Baines and Bryce Foster and at least in the program with Calvin Clemens. So why this matters, KU's lost a lot from last year's team. Again, we go down the list of players. I mean, Devin Neal, most accomplished running back in KU football history with a program that's had unbelievable running backs. You lose your three starting receivers. You lose your all big 12 full back, kind of hback type in Jared Casey. You'll lose your bookend tackles who were so good for you last season. You lose all sorts of players on the defense led by Kobe Bryant and Mellow Dotson to kind of infuse in that second. Kansas lost a lot.

Starting point is 00:15:33 from last season. Kansas lost a lot of talent from last season. A lot of those guys are award winning players, right? But that doesn't mean they're losing all their talent. That doesn't mean that they're less talented. Good programs continue to develop talent. And so I guess the point is this. Yes, Kansas has lost a lot of good, impactful, fun players, players that everybody love but that again does not mean they don't still have talent cultivating in the wings that they haven't recruited other talent that's waiting for their opportunity that doesn't mean that they still don't have dudes it just that some of them are unproven but again this is what happens in college sports this is what happens in college football there's so many players there's so

Starting point is 00:16:23 many starters you're going to consistently have roster turnover how would you develop the guys behind the guys as the years are going on right we don't say see it. We don't see the every day in practice, but it's just as important. And that's where cultivating that talent. And I believe Lance Leipold and Matt Gilderslieb and his staff to be very good at the development side of college football. And so if you're telling me this roster is just as talented as last years, if not slightly more, and you have a coach who you trust in development, then you look back at last year to me and you go, okay, sure, could that happen again? Yeah, It just happened.

Starting point is 00:17:02 Of course it can happen again. But it's also one of those things where it's like, there were so many things that went wrong for Kansas last season to where like if just a couple of those things don't go wrong, things are so different last year. They were still so close to making a ballgame. They still beat three of the top four teams in the Big 12 who tied for first in the league and they very well could have beat the other one

Starting point is 00:17:23 in Arizona State who almost beat Texas in the college football playoff. And so from trusting a coach to develop that talent and to get the most out of this, like, again, there are years where other good coaches have down years, even if they, like, shoo, man, I, I don't know, Iowa's kind of a butt of a joke at this point with, like, the offense and the lack of quarterback playing stuff. But, like, you look at Kirk Farrens and, like, he's had so many nine, 10 win seasons at Iowa, ranked seasons at Iowa.

Starting point is 00:17:50 They had so much returning talent on last year's team. They finished like eighth, or they finished eight and five, I mean to say. And it's because they had three games, I'm pretty sure, where they were up by, like, 10 or more points and they lost the game like that never happens for Iowa with their defense and special teams and they lost those games sometimes weird things happen in a given season when you're not the Georgia's of the world who oh okay well the weird thing happened now we only won 42 to 10 instead of 42 to 3 it's just a different line that these schools some of them are playing on and so I do trust that okay give me all this and I guess if you have what's

Starting point is 00:18:26 essentially across the board a similar to if not slightly more talented one through 85 on the roster because that's part of this too like maybe maybe it was more about the names on last year's roster that boosts up the talent but maybe the depth wasn't as good as this year's team maybe that's why this one is viewed as by some of those numbers as just as talented if not slightly more maybe it's more about the depth than it is about the front line guys and you could say okay well give me the front line guys but in football we know depth matters right football depth matters a lot more than say basketball and so you add in that now you are going to have a chip on your shoulder with talent coming off a five and seven season coming on to a season

Starting point is 00:19:09 where people are doubting you where you hope you're going to have better luck in one score games at least a little bit better luck in one score game score games and that to me is the summation of how you end up winning you know seven or eight games in a season which is right on what KU's over-underwind total is. So pretty cool to see the talent level on this team. It wasn't maybe as big of a drain as you might have thought, even though those players, you know, are missed and had great careers. All right, we're going to continue on with the show with Locked on Jayhawks,

Starting point is 00:19:40 some of the latest news about Austin Booker and big recruiting news for KU as well. Thanks for joining us on Locked on Jayhawks. Again, don't forget you make Locked on college football, your second listen every day or Locked on College basketball. basketball, your second letter, make it be your third lesson after you listen to Lockdown College football for your second listen every day as well. Okay, so the preseason is going on in the NFL, and Austin Booker was absolutely dominant, three-sack game for Austin Booker in the preseason.

Starting point is 00:20:13 You know, he is somebody who you think about him just coming on the scene so quickly at Kansas' first year. And first of all, that also should go back to our conversation, give you a little hope the like if you remember there was like like austin booker coming into the year it was like oh you got this interesting transfer from minnesota and it's like i don't even know if he's going to be a starter though is like okay i think he's an interesting player he's got good potential he should be a solid player but like how good is he going to me and then he just comes out right away and he's like oh this dude is like legit this dude's a freak you know in a positive way um and so that's like

Starting point is 00:20:47 an opportunity where it's like there might be certain positions or players coming into this year where you're thinking i don't know that might be a little scary i don't know how this position and then all of a sudden somebody ends up being a stud right uh but yeah booker uh cool to see and hope he uh can translate that to the regular season where he could have that kind of breakout season he saw in his year at kansas after transferring in from minnesota this was crazy as well in women's golf so um the the u.s woman's amateur championship brook beerman went to the championship after 19 holes so it's it's kind of like match play i guess and uh you get there by making a certain point, it's the crazy run of how it took her to get there.

Starting point is 00:21:29 She was down three with four holes to go. Then she was down two with two holes to go, forced to playoff, won the playoff, moved on to the championship round. Unbelievable performance there. That was really cool for KU Woman's Golf. I mentioned some recruiting news. That would be on the volleyball front for KU. I mean, there's a lot of recruiting news.

Starting point is 00:21:48 They're always just going on. I know basketball, you have all sorts of scheduled visits and players narrowing their list and stuff. This one is concrete because it's commitment. I guess nowadays commitments aren't that concrete, but you know what I mean. This was Marissa Jones, who is listed as a top 10 overall recruit according to prep volleyball and one of the top two setters in the class of 2027. She's six foot two as well, and that's a huge deal because it allows you to play a certain style in volleyball.

Starting point is 00:22:20 I mean, I don't want to get in the weeds on volleyball semantics for people, But like basically some teams play two-setters, some play one. And that sometimes what goes into that calculation is if you have a shorter setter, you don't want them playing at the front where, you know, they're just going to be shorter than the other players going up against them. So having a six-foot two-setter is super valuable. And this is obviously a very talented one, top 10 recruit in the country, and the setters like the quarterback where like you have a good setter,

Starting point is 00:22:45 anything is possible in volleyball. So awesome news there for Matt Ulmer and KU Volleyball. And then I wanted to make a mention of this, but I saw the number was officially out for the Rock Truck Roundball Classic, mentioning $225,000 for donations for the year. So another great year there for Brian Haney and the Rock Truck Rombo Classic. And just to let you know, like, you can donate year round. So if you're into the cause, if you want to give like monthly donations or you're like,

Starting point is 00:23:09 I was a little late to it, but, you know, it's something that I'm interested in. I just forgot to get to it when it was happening. Like, you can still donate. It'll go to the next year's cause. So I either recommend doing that. But that'll do it for this episode of Lockdown Jayhawks. You can find our show anywhere you get your podcast, including on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe to the show. See you next time for another edition of LOJ.

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - MORE TALENTED THAN LAST YEAR? Leipold's Kansas Jayhawks DEFY Odds with Surprising Talent Upgrade

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