Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - OFFENSIVE CRISIS? Can Bill Self FIX Jayhawks' Offensive Issues + Big 12 Seeding SCENARIOS for Kansas

Episode Date: March 2, 2026

Kansas Jayhawks basketball faces a critical test as offensive struggles threaten to derail their postseason ambitions. Derek Johnson breaks down KU's alarming slide outside the KenPom top 50 in offensive efficiency, examining the sharp decline in 2-point percentage, offensive rebounding rate, and fast-break production—even with standout talents like Flory Bidunga and Melvin Council. Are issues with depth, scheme, or recent recruiting at the heart of these woes, and can Bill Self find a fix before it's too late? The Big 12 tournament looms large, with seeding scenarios hinging on pivotal matchups against Iowa State, Texas Tech, and Arizona State. Derek Johnson analyzes tiebreaker intricacies, outlines what’s at stake for KU’s NCAA Tournament seed, and highlights the must-win mentality heading into the final week. Updates on KU women’s basketball’s tournament hopes and a strong start from Jayhawks baseball round out this comprehensive look at Kansas athletics’ high-stakes stretch. Everydayer Club  If you never miss an episode, it’s time to make it official. Join the Locked On Everydayer Club and get ad-free audio, access to our members-only Discord, and more — all built for our most loyal fans. Click here to learn more and join your team’s community: https://lockedonpodcasts.com/everydayerclub     Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors! 5-Hour ENERGY Have your cake & drink it too. Birthday cake-flavor is back, no fork needed. Vanilla-y cakey flavor, caffeinated kick, and no sugar. It's party time. Order Now at https://5-hourENERGY.com or Amazon.   Mazda Like our players, we’re driven by the details. Because highlights make the reel. What it takes to get there makes it count. There’s more to a Mazda. Because there’s more to you. TurboTax This year you’re getting a major upgrade — Intuit TurboTax now has in-person locations nationwide. Visit http://TurboTax.com/local to book your appointment today. Robinhood You’re no longer just a spectator. Play by play. You decide. Trade Every Play with Robinhood. Now available across the U.S. Download the Robinhood app now to begin. Futures and cleared swaps trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Event contracts are offered by Robinhood Derivatives, LLC., a registered futures commission merchant and swap firm.   Indeed Listeners of this show get a $75 Sponsored Job Credit to help give your job the premium placement it deserves at http://Indeed.com/podcast   Gametime Today's episode is brought to you by Gametime. Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONfor $20 off your first purchase. Terms and conditions apply. FanDuel FanDuel is giving you a way to turn that energy into even bigger potential wins with a College Basketball Parlay Profit Boost.Visit https://FANDUEL.COMto get started — Play Your Game.   FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

KU has been a bit offensively challenged this season, and it's kind of a trend that's been happening over recent years. It hasn't changed this year. We're going to break down the offensive issues for KU and also what they have to play for some different tiebreakers and scenarios for them over this last week of the regular season. You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks. Part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. What's going on, Derek Johnson with another edition of Lockdown, Jayhawks. Thanks for making it your first listen every day. And thank you every dayers catching each and every episode of the show.

And thank for making Lockdown the number one sports podcast network. On today's episode of the show, we're going to be breaking down some of the offensive issues. Is there a big offensive issue for KU just in general right now as program? And what has gone into it this year? Is it redeemable? And then we'll get into a little bit on the last week of the regular season in the Big 12. What does KU have to play for? What are some of the different tiebreakers?

scenarios getting into different spots. Then we'll finish up with some of the latest news with a women's basketball and KU Baseball Update. Today's episode of the show is brought to you by Fandual, giving you a way to turn that energy into even bigger potential winnings with a college basketball parlay profit boost. Head over to fanduel.com to get started today. So as of right now that I'm speaking, Kansas is currently outside of the top 50 on Kenbaum. They ranked 51st in offensive, in adjusted offensive.

Now, every year is not built the same. For instance, Kansas finished last year, ranked 52nd in adjusted offensive efficiency, and they actually had an adjusted O rating of 115.9, meaning 116 basically points per 100 possessions, you know, adjusted for how difficult the schedule is. This year, they're 51st, only one spot better, but they're averaging over four and a half points more per 100 possessions. yet there's been such an offensive explosion this year. It's been a combination of team shooting three.

Teams have really started to, you know, crash the offensive glass efficiently and get extra possessions to another level. And it started to kind of take that from the NBA level. There's a really good article in the athletic posted about that kind of earlier this year. So just kind of interesting there. But nonetheless, the 51st ranking in adjusted offensive efficiency for Ken Palm, which I said that really weird, Ken Palm, It would be the third straight non-top 50 season for Kansas and offense after, if you look from

1997 to 2023, which the reason I chose those years is because that is how far back I can get data on Ken Palm. I can only go back to 1997. But from 1997 until 2020, Kansas only had two offenses that were not inside the top 50. Now, it is kind of a, you know, like there was an offense in there that was number 50. And this one is 51. So it is as close to, it's like, you know, you're late to class and your class starts at 9 o'clock and you're late by 15 seconds. They're not that far off here.

But, you know, the fact that is consistently happening now for KU is kind of the story. And here's the other thing. Like here is the under the hood number, some of the stuff that has gone into this, why the offense has not been very good. So far this season for KU or at least has been inconsistent, they are 157th. in the country in two point percentage. Think about that. You have a dude who dunks everything in Florida Bedunga, of, you know, guards like Melvin Counsel and Darren Peterson,

who should be able to get your buckets inside. You have Trey White, who's done a good job at driving, although it's been more inconsistent of late. Like, you're playing too big basketball. All of these are reasons why Kansas should be a good two-point shooting team. But the current 157th ranking and two-point percentage, only the 2015 team and the 2021 teams. And if you remember,

both those teams got blown out in the second round, 2015 blown out by Wichita State in the second round, 2021, mega blown out by USC in the second round. Those are the only teams that have been worse under Bill self if we're just talking that era. So back to the 0304 season. If we look at effective field goal percentage, which is going to be a little repeating with the two point percentage

because it goes into that, but it also does take into account, you know, three point shooting and stuff. Again, only the 2015 and the 2021 teams were worse under Bill self an effective field goal percentage has it right now. This team currently ranks 126th in the country. Free throw attempt rate is 248th in the country for this Kansas team, which that one's crazy because you would think where Trey White was kind of trending there, that this would be okay.

But the only season that has been worst or seasons for KU that have been worse in free throw attempt rate were last year, last year KU wasn't getting to the free throw line at all. So I don't know, maybe this is something that's happening now over recent years. In 2018, the 2018, what I can easily explain. That team took a bunch of jump shots and three-point shots because they were so good at them. So you're not getting into the free throw line as much when digging threes. That doesn't apply to this year's team, right? This is the big one that worries me the most.

I don't know that it worries me the most. I think it explains it the most. Kansas is 259th in the country right now in offensive rebound rate. They've been a bad offensive rebounding team. The only team under Bill South that is ranked worse compared to the national perspective has been the 2024 team. So the 23, 2014, the team that lost, got blown out in the second round by Gonzaga, right?

And this is also very interesting. On the offensive rebounding, KU's four worst offensive rebounding teams by how they ranked nationally under Bill South, it's been the last four seasons. So is this a trend? Is this an issue that is, you know, with the new age of college basketball,

how things are going stylistically, that KU has not been able to adjust to. Because in the first 19 seasons that Bill Self had at KU, they were top 150, so at least average to above average at it, at offensive rebounding nationally, 19 out of 19 times. And it has happened zero times in the last four years and certainly continuing to trend that way this year. They'd have a long jump to go.

And that really hurts you, right? If you're not playing the math game, which Kansas doesn't, they don't play the, you know, we're going to shoot high volumes of three point shots. Kansas is a team that, you know, like, you need to get those extra possessions and they just don't. And the weird thing is you're playing too big basketball. Like if you're going to play too big basketball, you need to be doing those things to take advantage of that, right? So that's, I think, the biggest red flag here for the offense. In theory, could it be fixable?

Could that be a scheme adjustment thing? Like, to a certain extent, like I think some of that's the players, some of that's the scheme. It's probably kind of a combination of two things, right? I think part of that is probably the lack of depth, too, for KU, right? From a standpoint of like, you don't have bigs that you're throwing in there that can just come in and play, you know, a super energetic 10 minutes and just try to grab rebounds. And if they get a foul and going for an offensive rebound, it's like, whatever, I'm only going to play 10, 15 minutes. Anyway, Kansas doesn't have those guys right now, right? And then that also creeps into the starters where it's like, if you're tiller and Flory, you can't get in foul trouble because they don't have the big depth behind it.

So then maybe you're not as aggressive on the offense glass. So I think part of it is the depth. I think part of it is, you know, maybe Tillers just not a good offensive rebounder. K.U doesn't have a ton of guards that are great offensive rebounders. Like that can be part of it. And then maybe some of it is a scheme thing, you know, not kind of going up for this, right? Some other numbers that I think stick out, though, here too, is this one is a defensive number, but it'll get to why it relates to offense here in second.

K-143rd in the country in turnover rate defensively, right? So that is one of the worst teams in the country at turning opposing teams over. That is the worst number of the Bill Self era. They have never had a season where they've been outside the top 300 nationally. That's a low bar to clear. And they are very below that number right now. And here's why it matters. It gets you easy buckets.

It gets you out in transition. Kansas is averaging 12.2 points off turnovers per game. It's actually only a little bit worse than last year when it was just 12 and a half. But this is of what's going down, right? So Kansas puts up, here's the last. last three years, 12.2, two points off turnovers per game, 12.5, the season before, 13.2, the year before that. And then the previous five seasons, it was 15.9, 15.5.15.15. 1, 14.4. So you're talking about losing two or three points per game on your points off

turnovers, you're forcing per game. That's one extra freebie layup that you're basically not getting from an offense. And like that adds up over the course of the season, right? Over the course of 35 games, that's 70 extra points. That can be the difference of you winning one other big game or maybe stealing one of the I don't know right like and then here's the other one the fast break scoring has not been there Kansas isn't this everything about this team like when I see melvin council running in transition everything about this team tells me that they should be a good transition team and actually when they get in transition you know they're pretty efficient at it it's just they're not doing it enough and maybe that's where the lack of depth comes into but

Kansas is only averaging 10 fast break points per game that's actually worse than last year at 10.2 year before is 12.4 years before that 12.3 12. They actually actually at an 8.5 in there, 11.3 and 9.3. So that one is more toward the kind of middle of things, but certainly to the higher, the better numbers of the Bailself teams, they're closer to that 11 to 12 point range. So again, you're just dropping another, you're shaving another point or to what you could score. Now you add it to the points off turnovers. That's losing out on three, four, five points per game just in those two areas. Then you add the offense rebounding, like all of this kind of just boulders together. And so I think the question becomes, is this ability,

self thing. Is it a bill self GM thing? Is it a bill self coach thing? Is it a player thing? If it is a player thing, does that go to the bill self GM thing? I don't know what the answer is, but it certainly is a worrying trend as it's continued to happen here with some of these trends, right? And since moving back the three point line for the 2019 to 2020 season, that's when it happened, there's only been one final four team with an adjusted offensive efficiency that's been outside of the top 50 entering the NCAA tournament. That was San Diego State in 2023. They had one of the best defenses in the country,

though. It ranks out kind of similarly, actually, to where KU is right now. But that's also different because it's a mid-major program, so you're not going to have as many opportunities to boost your efficiency numbers, right? And furthermore, if we go back to 2001, only nine of 100 final four teams. I guess it would be 96, right?

Because I don't think I factored in no tournament in 2020. So that would be nine of 96 final four teams. So, you know, less than 10% had non-top 50 offenses entering the tournament. And five of those nine were mid-majors, where again, like, if you're Loyola, Chicago and you're outside of the top 50, well, you might be a top 50 offense. You might just not have had the opportunities to show it against lesser opponents. So like, yes, this is very much a problem for KU. And also of note of the Bill Self teams that have entered the NCAA tournament with a offense outside the top 50, they are just two and four in the NCAA tournament and have never made. it to the second weekend with an offense that isn't in the top 40 under Bill self.

They still have time to fix it. You know, you put up some good games. You get to Arizona State and K State. You put up a good big 12th tournament. You can get inside that. The difference between being, say, 35th and 52nd is just a couple good games. But it's something we need to see because right now the offense is kind of holding this team back from maybe potentially hitting their next level and living up to their potential.

All right. What is KU still have to play for over this last week of the season? and what are some of the tiebreakers scenarios. We'll get to that next. This episode of the show is brought to you by Fandual Sportsbook. College basketball is nonstop. It's big games, tight spreads, momentum swings, every single night from early tip-offs to late West Coast shootouts.

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Don't forget and check out the everyday or club. Get the ad free version of the show and join our Discord server. What is KU have to play for? So at this point in time, right now Kansas is tied for fourth in the big 12th. So you have Arizona who's already clinched a share of the conference. Then you have a tie for second place between Houston and Texas Tech. Go to a big win in Iowa State on Saturday. And then you have a tie between Kansas.

and Iowa State for the four spot. And that means whoever would lose out on the tiebreaker would be the five spot. And we could get into what the tiebreaker would be now, but it kind of becomes pointless because that's going to be decided this week. And realistically, in Iowa State's next game, more than it is in Kansas's next game. So the tiebreaker goes down if the two teams tied, if there ends up being three or four teams tied, it's a different tiebreaker. But if this ends up just coming down to Kansas versus Iowa State for the four seed,

and again, we've talked about many times, Thank you for every day, and you already know this. The importance of being a top four seed in the Big 12th tournament means that you get a double buy. And for a Kansas team that isn't very deep, for a Kansas team that has had the Darren Peterson situation, I want as many off days for this team as possible the week before the NCAA tournament. So it's very important they get that top four seed. So here's the rub. Kansas and Iowa State are in a situation where they split with each other.

The next end of the tiebreaker comes down to how you do. did against the top team in the conference. Now, I guess there's a world where, you know, if Arizona splits the conference with Houston, for instance, that it kind of changes things up. But let's say Arizona ends up winning the conference gets the one seed, right? And to be clear, like, I guess the only way this wouldn't be Arizona is the one seed would be Arizona, I think would have to lose twice this week and Houston would have to win twice because Arizona won at Houston.

So Arizona has the tiebreaker there. So even if they go one and one, you know, they're still getting a share of it, right? And then they win the tiebreaker. So anyway, most likely Arizona is going to be the one seed in the big 12th tournament, basically, right? So then it comes down to how each team did against Arizona to determine it. Well, Kansas is one and one against Arizona. Just got blown out on Saturday, right? That's where this matters.

So Kansas is one and one versus Arizona. Iowa State has not played Arizona, but that's Iowa State's next game. That is their early week game this week. They are at Arizona. That's the good news for Kansas. they're at Arizona, right? The bad news is Iowa State's coming off a, you know, big home loss to Texas Tech and Arizona's coming off a big blowout win against Kansas to where it's like,

is the emotional ride a positive in this one for Iowa State and a negative for Arizona? That'll be the big question. But point being, if Iowa State wins that game and Iowa State and Kansas end up in a tie for the four spot, Iowa State gets the nod. But if Arizona beats Iowa State, even if Kansas goes one, one and one this week. They'd have the same record. KU would have the better record versus Arizona. KU would be the four seat. So honestly, if we're just talking from the Big 12 perspective, obviously from the Kansas overall resume and just feeling like you're playing good basketball,

you want to win both games this week. But in terms of if you're just talking big 12th tournaments eating, getting a top four seed, the most important game this week for Kansas actually is when Iowa State plays at Arizona, right? Then you can kind of factor in if you want into some of the potential three-way tie scenarios. You have Texas Tech and Houston, both at 12 and 4, who would right now be the 2 and 3 seed. Houston is at home versus Baylor, who has just been tanking, and then they're at Oklahoma State. I guess Oklahoma State could get them. I don't really expect it.

I'm kind of pencil in Houston for kind of an easy 2 and O here. So unlikely they would fall into this, though if they did, it would be okay for Kansas because they're 1 and O versus Houston. I'll tell you why that matters here in a second. But let's say Texas Tech, right? And I wouldn't discount Texas Tech winning both games this week, too. Like even through losing JT Top and they've shown they're still a really good team, really dangerous. They wanted Iowa State. Another home versus TCU. I think they'll

win that game, though, you know, TCU is a little bit feisty and is going to be playing for their tournament lives. And then they're at BYU, which, you know, before the season start, you probably would have been picking BYU to win that game, senior day for them, home game and stuff. But BYU has been plummeting ever since the Ritchie Saunders injury, which, you know, partially makes sense. But BYU also did, even without Ritchie Saunders beat Iowa State on their home floor. So that's entirely possible they beat them. Let's say Texas Tech goes one-on-one there. Let's say BYU does beat them, right? And then let's say Kansas and Iowa State both went two and oh this week to where you got basically Arizona the one seed, Houston, the two seed, and then there was a three way tie

for the three through five seeds between Kansas, Iowa State and Texas Tech at that point. The tiebreaker when it's multiple teams then goes down to the record amongst each other, right? And so this is why it's really nice for Kansas that they went one and oh against Texas Tech. and again, theoretically, if Houston were to get upended at Oklahoma State, they have the one in over versus Houston, even though I'm not expecting that. Because Kansas being one and one against Iowa State, if you lump Texas Tech into the equation, Kansas's record versus Iowa State and Tech in that potential three-way tie is two and one. Iowa State's record, because they lost at home to Tech, is one and two. And then you have Texas Tech who would be one-in-one. Wind to Iowa State lost to Kansas. So Kansas would actually get the three-seat in that scenario. So you're rooting for tech.

to lose one of these games is one of the big things. And there's a couple paths for KU get in top four seed. You go one and one this week or two and O, preferably two and O, and Iowa State loses to Arizona, or you go to and O this week and Texas Tech loses one of their two games. That's kind of the easiest way to describe these. There's obviously other paths for what seed they would get and here, there and that. But those are, I think, the most simple ways that I could kind of put it.

And then from an NCAA tournament perspective, like I think KU's probably looking at a three seed right now, but if you lose one of these games, you probably drop down to a four seat. It would not be a good loss. So win both these games. I don't think winning both these games this week would change you, would move you up at all, but it would prevent you from falling down.

And then that would allow you to enter into the big 12 tournament where it's kind of a, like if you're going to be in a situation in the big 12 tournament where a loss there probably won't knock you down a seed, but some wins there could boost you up a seed, right? So take care of business this week. And I think you're you're pretty close to guaranteeing yourself the top three seed and not a full guarantee because what if a team who's, you know, five seed right now wins out the rest of the season and then upsets their way through the conference tournament. Like maybe they jump ahead and stuff, right?

You never know how that works. But if you do lose one of the games this week, it's going to start feeling like, hey, four seed might be in bound. So that'll be interesting there, right? But I think just in general, too, like beyond all that stuff, just start playing good at the end of the season. Kansas has now lost three of their last five games. I get it. It's a tough gauntlet. It comes right after winning nine straight games or eight straight games.

and that was always going to be difficult to maintain in the Big 12. But you lost three or five games, you know, kind of get your mojo back before the Big 12th tournament in the postseason here and figure that, you know, playing with chemistry with Darren Peterson a little bit more over these next couple games and find a way to win the games. Let's finish up with some of the latest news, some volleyball news, KU women's basketball, KU baseball. Get to all of it next on Locked on Jayhawks. Today's episode is brought to you by Robin Hood.

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Futures and cleared swaps training involves significant risk is not appropriate for everyone. Event contracts are offered by Robin Hood derivatives LLC registered futures commission merchant and swap firm. Thanks for joining us here. Don't forget and check out the Everydayer Club. You get the ad-free version of the show and join our Discord server as well with Lockdown Jayhawks. All right. Some of the latest news, Anisei Heavelli is back with Katie Women's Volleyball. She'd been playing some professional volleyball.

now comes back as an assistant coach. Obviously, one of, if not the greatest setter in KU volleyball history, helped them go to Final Four, win a big 12th title. Really cool to have her back on the coaching staff for Matt Olmer and company. So that's really cool there. A little update on KU Women's Basketball. So they finish out the regular season. Since we last talked about it, we kind of said, like,

they got the win over KSate. They needed to win one of these next two with Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. They lose by 14 in their finale at Oklahoma State, but they win by nine at home against Texas Tech on Senior Day. gigantic victory for KU. So they finished the regular season at 18 and 12, 8 and 10 in Big 12 play, and it keeps them in the conversation on the bubble.

Now, I don't know that they're feeling comfortable right now, but they're at least on the bubble and in the conversation. They have work to do in the Big 12 tournament, basically, right? It basically puts them in a situation where you're going to have to at least win your first game just to maintain being in the conversation. I think the best way to kind of go about this, though, if your KU would be, you know, at least win two games.

I don't know. It's kind of tough to say. Like, I think ESPN does bracketology and head KU as one of the last four in. And then they beat Tech who's like a good team. And they just stayed there. So I don't know how like accurate or up to date that stuff is. Like probably not as as widely, you know, understood and thought through as, you know, maybe the men side of it.

But basically KU ends up getting the 11 seed in the big 12th tournament. And they're going to be taken on the 14 seed UCF. who is not very good. UCF went just 3 and 15 in conference play. So again, that one isn't going to boost KU's resume at all. It's just if you lose the game, it's going to kind of completely knock your resume. But KU won by 15 points at UCF earlier this year.

So that's obviously a good sign. Just take care of business in that one. If you win that game, then you're playing the sixth seed, which would be 11 and 7 Colorado for just looking at the Big 12 standing, right? And Colorado is a top 40 team on Bart Torvik. KU's in the top 50 for one. what it's worth. Colorado was actually sitting at 11 and 5, though.

They lost their last two games to kind of limp to the finish line here. But that was a crazy game. Colorado actually played at Kansas in 1, 69 to 66 in overtime on February 1st. And had Kansas won that game, I mean, I don't know, maybe we're not even having this conversation, but Colorado is a 20-win team. And so this would become a really good opportunity. I think KU needs to win those two games to make the NCAA tournament. And I don't know.

Do you have to win one more and beat the three-seed Baylor to, to secure it, possibly. But if you win at least those first two games, that gives you, I think, your best fighting chance. And then KU Baseball, 7 and 4 right now. I think they're in the top 20 on the RPI at the moment. In the most recent action, we're playing at Mingis State. And then they just played at Minnesota.

They've just been consistently on the road to start the season, which makes sense, right? The cold weather, we see it a lot for KU. But they got to sweep over McNeese State. And that's a team that the RPI will probably end up. up looking pretty good at the end of the season for, you know, non-con kind of mid-major school. Same with like Lamar and UTRGV when it's all said and done.

And then with Minnesota, they won the first game, lost the next two and then won the fourth to kind of split the series. But yeah, back at home now, St. Thomas coming into Hoagland Ballpark, it'll probably be pretty well attended by the students and making some noise, making it a rowdy environment. And then it's a big 12 play after that with non-conference games sprinkled in. Obviously, the Missouri game coming in Lawrence as well. So solid start for KU baseball at 7 and 4.

I always think it's harder for teams like Kansas who are in colder weather environments to have, you know, decent starts to the season because you're not in the warm weather constantly. And you're having to go on the road so much to start the season. So just stay afloat, which they're doing more than staying afloat to start the year and then try to hit your stride once you kind of get into conference play, I think is the goal. And that's what they've done over the last couple years. All right, that'll know for this episode of Lockdown, Jayhawks. You can find our show anywhere you get your podcast, including on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe to the show. of a KU Arizona State preview coming at you tomorrow.

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