Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Paradox: Why Kansas is Struggling with Darryn Peterson on the Floor & MUST UNLOCK On-Court Chemistry

Starting point is 00:00:00 Statistically, KU has actually been a better team when Darren Peterson has been off the floor. It doesn't make sense. We're going to try to get into why that would be the case, as well as why I don't think it makes sense for him to shut it down at any point this season. You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. What's going on? Derek Johnson here with Lockdown Jayhawks. Thanks for making us your first listen every day. And thank you for making the Lockdown podcast network to the number one sports podcast network. On this episode of the show, we're breaking down. Statistically, KU has a better net rating when Darren Peterson's off the court. What is going on with that? Why is this happening? Is it something to be worried about long term? I'm going to tell you, I don't think that's the case. And why I actually think it is in everyone's best benefit to not shut things. down at any point this season. Obviously, that's not really on the mind at this very moment after beating TCU, but I just don't really think it makes sense for either party, barring things getting severely worse. But let's just start here. Last night was yet another

Starting point is 00:01:15 weird chapter in this saga of Dan Peterson season unfolding with KU, right? He puts up 32 points, insane efficiency when he's out there on not a ton of shots the weird turnover mixup where tried to throw it back to Peterson who is asking out of the game as the ball is coming his way and it goes out of bounds for a turnover and it felt like that was going to be kind of the play that stuck in everyone's head with KU losing the game until they come back and then he after coming out of the game comes in for the play where you need to make a three to tie the game and basically he's like, hey, I don't have enough legs in me to run up and down the court, but I can give you a half court shot and gets fouled, makes all three free throws,

Starting point is 00:02:04 clutch goes to overtime, just a very weird game. KU wins in overtime. He doesn't play in overtime. So let's just start here with the discussion about how is KU with Peterson right now versus without him and then move that into the conversation of why I don't think it makes sense for him and his side of things to want to shut things down. So let's just start here. The raw stats have shown that Darren Peterson is the best player on the floor every time he touches the hardwood.

Starting point is 00:02:32 He's putting up 22 and a half points per game, four and a half rebounds, 1.8 stocks per game on 50% from the field, 43 from 3 and 82 from the foul line. Insane efficiency. He's putting up 22.5 points per game in 26.5 minutes per game. Think about this for a second. Frank Mason and Wayne Simeon are two of, I believe, the only two players in Bill Self's time to average more than 20. points per game. Simeon was like 20.3. Frank Mason was 20.9. And those guys are doing it in, at least in Frank, like well over 30 minutes per game. Peterson is averaging 22 and a half and 26

Starting point is 00:03:08 a half minutes per game. That doesn't, that's unfathomable. So then why is it that you can have this guy who was putting up these bonkers stats on an insane efficiency? And yet every time he's on the floor looking like an NBA All-Star, they're still losing because even when he's putting up 23 points in one half against UCF, they're down three at halftime, right? Like, they're down big to TCU, even with him putting up big stats up until that point. They lost to North Carolina on the road, even with him making some pretty ridiculous shots there and lost big there. And the stats back up this crazy notion that like despite him being this incredibly efficient

Starting point is 00:03:50 and valuable offensive player, that KU has somehow been worse when he's on the floor. Again, it's tough to wrap your head around. Kansas is 5.7 points per 100 possessions worse when Darren Peterson's been on the floor. Again, per 100 possession, they've been about six points worse. That's crazy. That puts Darren Peterson in just the 27th percentile. You want to be on a higher number there, 27th percentile in on-off net rating. So, like, what are we missing here, right?

Starting point is 00:04:19 I don't know, it's just hard to explain it because that tells you it right there. And you might have noticed it last night against TCU, where they have the comeback without Darren Peterson and you're sitting there going, are they just better without Darren Peterson? And the short answer to that is right now they actually probably are because they've played more together without him. The long-term answer, though, is they are absolutely a better team if they can figure out making it work with Darren Peterson because he's in the running to be the number one pick in the NBA draft and potentially be the best player when he's on the floor in college basketball,

Starting point is 00:04:53 right? And so it's almost like, yes, at this point in time, KU might be better without Darren Peterson, but that does have to come with the caveat that the ceiling is higher with Peterson long term. And, you know, I don't think the reason that they're not playing as well when he's on the floor is entirely his fault either. Like, I don't think it's, oh, he's going out there and he's just not trying on defense. and so they're worse. No, I don't think that's what's happening.

Starting point is 00:05:20 So let's try to explain why this is happening. The first party is actually the defense, but it's not that. Because, so KU is actually almost seven points per 100 possession on offense when he's on the floor. He's in the 72nd percentile for on-off net rating. So like the offense definitively gets better when Darren Peterson is on the floor. But the defense, he's in the seventh percentile for on-off defensive rating. KU is over 12 points per 100 possession is worse when Darren Peterson's on the floor defensively. But again, if you watch the game, like, sure, you could probably pull a couple highlights.

Starting point is 00:05:59 Like, I think of the Missouri game where maybe there were a couple Olais in there of like, you know, trying to avoid the contact, trying to avoid giving up a foul. You're trying to avoid, you know, I don't know, reaggregating the injury. But outside of a few of those moments that I can think of, I actually feel when I'm watching Darren Peterson on defense, he's a good defender. Like, I've noticed a lot of times these basketball games are Darren Peterson is like deflecting a ball or, you know, poking a ball out of a guy's hands or like walling up somebody who's trying to post him up or like having a good contest on the player. And so again, it's one of those things where like you watch it and you're like, no, he's not, he's a good defender, you know, and yet the team's defense has been so much worse when he's out there. So why is that happening, especially when you think of the game. And there's two ways of looking at, is that stat just noise because he's played a smaller sample size of games with some of those coming to get North Carolina, bad defensive game, UCF, bad defensive game, right? But again, it looks good on the eyes to me.

Starting point is 00:06:59 So I think those on-off defensive numbers tell me this. With his switchy as KU is one through five, they want to switch everything one through five, right? Having a player get thrown in and out of the lineup as Peterson has done, which, you know, not to his own. It's not his fault. He's hurt. And having everyone have to react differently with, okay, now I'm guarding this guy. Now I'm guarding this position. Now I'm playing this position.

Starting point is 00:07:25 Now I'm used to talking to this guy. Now we're rotating differently. Now I'm taking this rotation. Like there's different things you have to do based on who you're out there with defensively. And with how communicative KU needs to be on the defensive end and how important it is to feel like you are one unit meshing together chemistry-wise if you're going to switch one through five to miss out on some of that with Peterson missing some time. I think it ties into a

Starting point is 00:07:50 little bit of that, right? And I think that's one of the big reasons why KU is worst right now statistically when Peterson is on the floor. It's just the lack of familiarity. It's the lack of on court chemistry. Like I think they all like each other off the core. We've heard Bill Self and people talk about that all year long. It's just the on court chemistry in game time situations, right? I think that's where it kind of matters. Then you could look to the offense and maybe this is even pointless to do. Because again, we just said there's seven points per 100 possession is better when Peterson's on the floor offensively. But it does feel like at times things aren't getting, and offense might be clunky or certain players aren't stepping up

Starting point is 00:08:28 when Peterson's out there where it almost feels like it's sometimes like it's like you have this supernova star and everybody's just sitting there watching the star be so shiny and you're not doing anything about it. And like the proof to me is in this number because I feel like there's been too much standing and watching Darren Peterson with the ball. And okay, sure, could you give a little bit of on that on Peterson? Can he get the other guys involved a little bit more? Yeah, I'd probably like to see him averaging more than 2.2 assists per game. I think that's very fair. At the same point in time, you're sitting there like, well, okay, but you could also cut off the ball. You could still be aggressive when you have the ball, even if Peterson's in the game, you could

Starting point is 00:09:06 crash the offensive glass, earn your own possession, because here's the craziest thing to me. You would think if it's basically an offense, hey, Darren Peterson's show, get out of the way, he's going to take a shot, which I don't think it's that simple, then go crash the glass. But when Darren Peterson is on the court or the on-off offensive rebound rate for KU basically, when Peterson is on versus off the court, KU's in the sixth percentile there. Kansas has an offensive rebound rate of more than eight percentage points worse when Darren Peterson is on the floor, which, shouldn't make sense go grab the misses right but they're not doing that you're you're standing around too much and so i guess while it's frustrating that like players aren't getting as involved you think of melvin council doing better when he's not out there offensively which i i think a little of it's on peterson i think a little of it's on the other guys a little of it maybe is on bill's self

Starting point is 00:10:00 like i don't know but but you look at the defense too um i just think it's an on-court chemistry thing i think it's one of those things where you just need to keep playing together that they can get it all figured out, it's just going to take time. It's just going to take playing with each other. That's a much better problem to have than being like there's a fundamental flaw with this. If it's just, they just need more time playing together as long as you can say healthy, which obviously comes with the big asterisk, I think they're going to get there. I really do. But let's talk about why I don't think it makes sense for for Peterson to ever shut it down at any point this season. And I think maybe we haven't given enough of credit to him fighting

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Starting point is 00:12:29 All right. So we go back to this. And the idea that KU statistically is actually worse, Petersen on the floor right now. but to my summation it is just about them playing together and when you watch peterson play he is such a good player that once they do figure out everybody on the court playing with each other the fruits of the labor are there right of course for that to happen to have time he has to keep playing right to be able to establish that chemistry with each other on the court you have to keep

Starting point is 00:13:00 doing that and so that's where the potential of well if he shut it down then you wouldn't have that opportunity, even if it's a shutdown for a little bit of time, I guess you would say. And sure, if there's a more serious injury, then, yeah, all power to you. Like, increase the likelihood shut it down, whatever. And I'm sure there is a line where that becomes a thing. But, like, we probably haven't given enough credit to that. I know I think people want to hamper on the cramps thing and just like that that is a hard thing to hear is like holding you back.

Starting point is 00:13:28 But I think it's clear this is not just cramp. Like, this is a ham or, you know, hamstring strain or whatever you want to call it that is leading to these other things like the cramps are a symptom it's like it's like saying you have stomach flu and then being like oh so you didn't come to work today because because you had a little you know i don't know you got a little upset tummy or like you you had a little bit of a fever and it's like well i didn't come to work today because not only did i have a fever but i was i was vomiting or you know whatever right but so so what is the reason to me of why it doesn't make sense for him and people to shut this down Because at the end of the day, this is a stop on Peterson's journey.

Starting point is 00:14:07 I know it doesn't sound fun to hear that, but like for KU fans, for Bill Self, this is the destination. But for Darren Peterson, this is a stop on the journey. And obviously there is just naturally going to be a divide there. But let's not forget, obviously, you know, barring this continuing, again, with even longer injury diagnosis or status getting worse, whatever. There is a potentially $5 million, if not $10 million decision on the table right now for Darren Peterson for how this goes. $5 million, $10 million. I know Darren Peterson's making a lot of money for KU this year. I know Darren Peterson's going to make a lot of money in the NBA.

Starting point is 00:14:41 Do you think if he had a $5 million briefcase in front of him, a $10 million briefcase in front of him? He would just be like, ah, I make a good amount of money. I don't need it. Let's start with the $5.49 million numeral. That is the figure that represents the difference between Cooper Flag's contract in his first four years. So in the NBA, you get three years guaranteed. And then the fourth year for those picks is an option picked up, which you probably assume if you're going that high in the draft, they're going to want to check out the asset, right?

Starting point is 00:15:09 The second pick in the NBA draft was Dylan Harper. The difference over those four years from going first to second in the draft is $5.49 million. That's a good chunk of change. If we want to be more extreme, the cost value on years one through four of the first pick in the 2025 NBA draft, compared to the third pick, it's $10.24 million. That's, again, a nice chunk of change. And so, you know, if Peterson shot it down today, he could obviously still be the first pick in the draft. But, like, A.J. DeBonsa is an absolute monster right now.

Starting point is 00:15:50 In fact, like Sam Vassini, who does as good of NBA draft work as anybody I know, he just in his most recent mock draft today, or maybe it was yesterday, had DeBontza number one, moved him up with Peterson down to number two. That would be $5 million. Cam Boozer is putting up insane numbers too. And if you get shut down, I know it's easy right now for these people to have level heads and be like, oh, well, he could still go first in the draft. And then all of a sudden you see the NCAA tournament.

Starting point is 00:16:18 These guys are leading their team to wins. And then you overreact and, like, boom, all of a sudden you're going third in the draft. which, like, big picture is not that big of a deal, but again, wouldn't you want that extra $10 million? Wouldn't you want that extra $5 million? So here's the other part of this. Okay, but, you know, shutting him down could potentially avoid bigger injury. Do people not remember Joel Embed who played at this very same school? Again, this is the extreme, but like this shows you, because to me, Joel and Bede's injury stuff was worse, right?

Starting point is 00:16:49 Like, oh, my gosh, what if Darren Peterson like pulls or pops the hammy? you hope none of this happens, but like, can we all agree there's still a limit on where he, like, Darren Peterson's not going to go undrafted. Joel Embed suffered a stress fracture in March of 2014, caused him to miss the big 12th tournament, caused him to miss the NCAA tournament. Then he got surgery on a broken bone in his right foot that was like six days before the NBA draft. He still went third in the NBA draft. So, point being.

Starting point is 00:17:22 If Darren Peterson shuts it down, it increases the likelihood. It doesn't guarantee it. He still go first. But it increases the likelihood he could go second or third in the draft, costing him five or $10 million potentially. If you have a bad injury like Joel Embed, he still went third in the draft. The upside to playing and not shutting it down is you go first in the draft and you make yourself that extra money. And so I will say too, like I actually am kind of legit like starting to feel bad for Darren Peterson because the discourse around him kind of sucks. And I do think it is more of the fault of the message than his fault, specifically. And I think a little of that is on Bill's self.

Starting point is 00:17:59 I also think, though, okay, let's try to break this down from each party, right? Because I think that's an easy way because I think some, let's view this way. Like for Peterson, he's probably pretty frustrated himself, right? He's probably pretty frustrated he can't get on the court. He wants to play basketball. He wants, he is a basketball player. He wants to play basketball. I can guarantee you that.

Starting point is 00:18:23 Bill Self, the messaging has sucked, and it's been super inconsistent, and at times, not really full of truth, but like, can we at least acknowledge this? I will at least give Bill Self this, like, he's not doing this to just mess with people. He's doing this because he legitimately thinks in his mind this is protecting the guy. Like, I actually think it comes with good intentions from Bill Self. It's just been bad results in how the mess. has come out. And honestly, I think a majority of KU fans are more frustrated with the message than they are the news, so to speak. And then you look at like from Peterson's camp and family perspective, like they're worried about it. And they're trying to protect his long term career over six months in college. It's his family job to look out for the kid, right? It's Bill Self's job to win at Kansas. Those are things that can overlap some, but they're also kind of different circles, at least a little bit here. Right. And so I do think, like I said, like I do think for the most part, Some KU fans are getting agitated that, you know, some draft people try to clap back at being like, oh, how could KU fans be annoyed by this?

Starting point is 00:19:30 And I think, again, the majority to me is, I think a majority of KU fans are more annoyed with the messaging. And like if Darren Peterson would have been from the get-go announced this out a month with a hamstring injury, I don't think there would be this frustration, not the, oh, he's sick, now it's cramps, now it's a hamstring, now he's day-to-day. it's it's a much more understandable and less frustrating situation if it's just from the start hey he's out three weeks and then we'll reevaluate or whatever right and again if it's if it's self or you know self trying to protect the message that it became too much and the family probably wanted to stop answering questions especially from NBA people or like what has led to difference in messaging but like at least you can if you try to view it from each party you can have a little bit better understanding of everything but at the end of the day here's what

Starting point is 00:20:17 matters. There's potentially a handful to even double digit millions of dollars on the line in this for Darren Peterson. And so I do think, like, let's not forget, he has come back. He's come back every time so far that he's had to be checked out of the game late. This would have been very easy to, after the second time it happened or after, you know, third strike, to just shut it down. And they're not. And I think logically, it makes a little bit of sense why they're not. But I also think we're not giving enough credit that they could have packed it in by now if they wanted to. And I don't want to like overpraise

Starting point is 00:20:51 this. They're like, oh, you know, good for no. You want to get them back fully and everything. But, you know, a lot of this season is going to ride on can you get Peterson healthy and available for, you know, the stretches of games, staying into the end of games, build that chemistry with each other, and then thrive from there. Let's finish up the show a little bit with a little KU football.

Starting point is 00:21:12 Who are the top 10 returning players for KU4? football in 2026 that are coming back. Thanks for joining us here on Locked on Jayhawks, making us your first listen every day. Don't forget and check out our postcast episode from that crazy KUTCU game or all of our commitment episodes of the transfer portal for KU football. So let's re-rack the KU football top 10 returning players for 2026. Obviously, you lost some more.

Starting point is 00:21:38 So this is just returning players. This doesn't count the new transfer additions they made. We'll get to one of those in a future episode. So number one on the list for me is Blake Harold. I had him number two before Trey Lathen left, entered in the portal, which, who knows, maybe KU could get Lathen back and then we can readjust the rankings again. But Blake Harold in at number one for now, really good gap shooting defensive tackle, and he's already been really good in his first two years of play.

Starting point is 00:22:01 I'm really excited what he can do with another year in the offseason under his belt. Leroy Harris had an unbelievable year, exceeding expectations, transferring up from the FCS level, really good pressure guy on the outside. I think he could take a huge leap forward again this year from already being a good player to a great one. Jalen Todd, kind of same thing. Had good numbers, really good in man coverage. I want to see KU use him more on the outside. I want to see them use him more in Pressman because I think he can do both of those things very well.

Starting point is 00:22:26 And some of the stats actually back some of that stuff up. But he's a very good player. And the thing about it's like it's the same with like the offensive line. If you have like one or two bad offensive linemen, it's going to make the entire offensive line look bad. But you need at least your weak links. of units like that same with the secondary to at least be like average you know because if you have one that's really bad or two

Starting point is 00:22:48 that's really bad they're just getting it targeted over and over again and so Jalen Todd can be great but they're just going to throw to the other guys but anyway I have him in at number three Amir Herring in at number four really good season for the guard from Michigan and the fact that he is a former four star who went to Michigan tells you that he probably does

Starting point is 00:23:05 have a pretty high ceiling number five on the list they have Dak Brinkley I really liked what we saw from from Dak Brinkley at the end of the year former four star recruit again makes you think that there's a good amount of potential there. And I think he could have a big breakout season this next year. Kim Pickett in at number six, good yard after catch receiver for KU. Be interested to see if they use him a little bit more on special teams,

Starting point is 00:23:24 the Manuel Henderson gone. But that'll be a nice tool to have for a young quarterback, whether it's Colt Ballard or Isaiah Marshall, somebody you can just get the ball on his hands and try to pick you up a first down. Seven on the list, I have Carson Bruhn. And for Carson Bruin, I think the question is one. coming off the injury, are you going to have a full off season? But then two, what can you add to your game in the receiving game?

Starting point is 00:23:50 I think Brun was already a good blocker, but I guess can you go from a good blocker to a great blocker? But I think we saw enough there as a redshirt freshman who was kind of thrown into the fire where he was KU's best blocking tight end that makes me think that there's another level, especially with Andy Kodaliki, the guy who helped recruit him, now back to KU. Number eight on the list, this is where things get a little bit more difficult here. I guess we'll go with, gosh, I'm going to go with Austin Alexander. This one's going to be more of a shot in the dark,

Starting point is 00:24:17 but this is where we're at with, you know, lack of attorney guys, and this is where the transfers come in. I would still be looking for another corner to try to upgrade your coverage if you're KU, and a lot of times you're going to have three corners on the field anyway. I get it. Austin Alexander had a very inconsistent season and had some bad games. He was also a retro freshman. And sometimes we get caught up in this,

Starting point is 00:24:38 okay, like there's a difference between evaluating the game and the 2025 season and what the future is of the player. The fact that Austin Alexander was even starting as a redshirt freshman should tell you a lot about his talent. Was Kobe Bryant the same guy as a junior and senior as he was as a freshman? No, he was not. So like, I think it's more of an indictment that KU didn't have a better corner to start over him when he was a redshirt freshman. But now that he has the reps in front of him, I think he will take a jump this year. I think he's too talented of a kid not to get better than he was a season ago. So I'm going to actually have him in at number eight.

Starting point is 00:25:14 Number nine for returning players, I'm going to go to Tavaki, Tuico Lovatu again. This one is taking a little bit of a leap of faith. I am a believer, really good efficiency, pro football focus numbers for Tui Colovatu. He was the transfer from UCLA who kind of came in and I think some of the thoughts were okay. This guy, like right when they added him, this guy's going to be one of our starters. He ends up not starting for KU, but still ends up having a good season. And it's kind of like we typically see KU really the sixth offensive line basically or sometimes seven, the six and seven guys are going to get a good amount of run for KU. And that was kind of the case for Tuico Lovatu, 63 PFF grade, which 174 snaps.

Starting point is 00:25:52 I mean, that's kind of like average level ball there of you're talking about for a player who was really in his first year of like real snaps. He played 40 snaps over two seasons, one redshirting at UCLA. And so I see that where I'm like, okay, 63 PFF grade is a redshirt sophomore. and really your first time playing. And that even comes with him, you know, struggling in the Utah game at the end of the season, which hurt the grade because it was even better before the Utah game. We're at a 49.9 grade. I think he's going to make a jump this year for KU.

Starting point is 00:26:20 So I'll go with him at number nine. And then I guess I'll go to Marcus Calvin in at number 10, which is weird because with some of the transfer additions, like Calvin might be the fourth or fifth defensive tackle for KU, but they'll still play that deep into the rotation. I think he's going to be a good player. I thought about, do I do Mason Ellis, based on the early version of Mason Ellis, he deserves to probably be, I don't know, eight or nine on the list. But, you know, we saw a different guy after coming back from injury. So I don't know what he'll look like.

Starting point is 00:26:47 Taylor Davis moving back, he struggled last year, but now moving back to his original position, will that help him? What kind of jump will Calvin Clements have? Who will be the quarterback and how will they perform? That'll be kind of a question, but we'll go with Calvin in at number 10. I already feel like I want to switch up a couple of those guys on the list. but we'll be back to do a top then with once they finalize the roster with the portal guys as well, maybe even the portal editions for KU. So plenty more KU football content.

Starting point is 00:27:11 Make sure to check out that anywhere you show, including on YouTube. And do free and join the everyday air club where you can get ad-free version of the podcast and join us on our Discord channel as well. See you next time on another edition of Locked on Jayhawks.

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Paradox: Why Kansas is Struggling with Darryn Peterson on the Floor & MUST UNLOCK On-Court Chemistry

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