Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - POWERED UP: Kansas Counting on Darryn Peterson's Return to DELIVER at UCF Knights in Big 12 Opener

Starting point is 00:00:00 Sounds like there's going to have Darren Peterson back for the Big 12 opener against UCF. We're going to break down the game on today's episode of the show. You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. What's going on, Derek Johnson here with Locked on Jayhawks, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, now the number one sports podcast network and on today's episode of the show we're breaking down Kansas and UCF sounds good for where Darren Peterson's at coming into this game obviously

Starting point is 00:00:38 with how fickle things have been there who exactly knows but it does sound like it's trending in the right direction so we're going to break down the game importance of it storylines record resume scouting report for UCF keys for Kansas players to watch all that more on today's episode of the show which is brought to you by Fandual sportsbook you can get action on the game over at Fandwell. And don't forget on Fridays, which is today, before tip off, check the Fandwell app, see what's dropping during NBA happy hour every Friday from 6 to 7.30 p.m. Eastern time. Okay, let's start right here. The latest on Darren Peterson. That is the lead-up into this game. He's obviously missed the last two games for KU. KU looking to get their star player back.

Starting point is 00:01:17 They've had extra time off during the Christmas break and everything. And it's not just a question of, are they going to get and can they get Darren Peterson back for the game? it's, are you going to have him back for the rest of the season? And is he going to be explosive Darren Peterson? Because even though they had him back during the Missouri game and during the NC State game, it's clear he didn't have the same level of explosiveness. Like if you just go watch the highlights or go watch, you know, some of the things he did, he was still an effective player, which speaks to how, you know, incredible he is and incredibly skilled he is.

Starting point is 00:01:48 But the level of burst, a little different than maybe the guy you saw, if you go back, I can watch his high school film or maybe at the beginning of his time with KU than those last two games, just a little bit more wiggle and acceleration and quickness and burst to his game. So that's just going to be part of the question too. Like, are we going to get Darren Peterson back or is it going to be Darren Peterson's back, but kind of hampered a little bit like that is kind of a big question of this. Now, this is the good news for KU. At a media availability on January 1st, he said that he continues to practice. He said he's looking more explosive. And here's the full quote.

Starting point is 00:02:25 I have this from Michael Swain of 24-7 sports. Unless something unforeseen happens, we should have our full complement of guys. So again, unless something unforeseen happens, we should have our full complement of guys. This is a very eerily similar quote to when he came back against Missouri. I forget the exact quote, but it was something along the lines of barring the last minute setback. He will be out there. And obviously he was out there for the Missouri games. So this leads me to believe that he is going to play at UCF.

Starting point is 00:02:51 Again, barring a last minute setback. But that's the case with every player. You could say that about every single player coming into a game. Yeah, barring a last minute setback, like, while their avers is available for KU, well, if he rolled his ankle and practiced, knock on wood, you don't want anything to happen there. But like, you get what I'm saying. Like, everybody is barring my, me losing my voice.

Starting point is 00:03:10 We'll have a postcast episode after the KUUCF game, but there is that potential of a setback, right? Sounds like he's going to play in this game. Now, when you look at the importance of this one, we kind of detailed earlier this week and thank you to the everydayers who already caught this episode. or the episode where we talked about kind of detailing the roadmap for KU and talking about what they needed to do if they wanted to compete for one of the top four spots in the conference and the importance of that and that you get a double buy in the Big 12th tournament.

Starting point is 00:03:38 Clearly, Darren Peterson has an injury stuff he's at deal with. Wouldn't you want to have to play less games in theory? You would at most want to have to play the three games in the Big 12 tournament because you want to win them all that you're playing, but you don't want to be stuck playing five games in five days or four games in four days before the NCAA tournament. And so to getting to the top four, you're probably looking at having to go at least five and two in these first seven games, if not six and one.

Starting point is 00:04:02 And so if you lose your very first game, you could still go five and two in your first seven, but it just becomes that much more difficult, right? And you still have games at Kansas State and at West Virginia, two road venues that in recent years or in West Virginia, a little longer than just recently, that you've struggled at on the road. You also have Iowa State at home,

Starting point is 00:04:20 who's one of the best teams in the country, You have Baylor at home who's been a solid team this year, but now that James Noges is on the team, like, does that take them to being one of the more elite teams in the country? So it's not as easy of a path if you lose this game to getting to that five and two mark in the first seven games. And things become a lot easier if you can go six and one in those first seven games. So you'd be kind of burning your one right away. And here's the other part of this, too. Like KU over the last couple of years had one of these early season Big 12 losses.

Starting point is 00:04:47 They lost their first Big 12 game last. Actually, I think that was the home game against West Virginia. And then they were one in one in Big 12 play. Two years ago, they lost their first road game of Big 12 play, and that was a game at UCF. So it's just not a good way to start off Big 12 season. It doesn't mean you can't overcome it. But with such a long season, 18 games, you don't want to start off on the wrong foot, so to speak. And then you add to it this too.

Starting point is 00:05:14 Like, I think there's this storyline for me coming in this game as well. The idea of KU just trying to be a better road team. this season. Obviously, you were able to go on the road against NC State, a solid team there and win on the road. And that was impressive for KU because it was one of their best road wins just in terms of winning on the road against a quality opponent that they've had in a couple years. The last two years for KU, not fruitful on the road. KU last season and the year before combined just six and 13 in Big 12 road games. That's it. Six and 13. So that's kind of, you know, you look at having nine big 12 road games this year.

Starting point is 00:05:50 If you continued on that path, you'd be looking at kind of a three and six season. And if we talk about trying to get to like 12 and six in conference play, it means you'd have to be perfect at home, which is possible. But, you know, you play some really good teams at home this year, right? You might drop one of these at home even with some Allen Fieldhouse magic. So can you get to four and five on the road, right? Dare I say, can you get to a winning record on the road to make things a lot easier overall there? And as much as they showed, maybe it can be a little bit different team.

Starting point is 00:06:18 on the road when they did that at NC State, you got to be able to back it up again. And playing at UCF is, yes, UCF isn't one of the seen as one of the premier teams in the league, but could this UCF team be an NCAA tournament team? Absolutely. Could this UCF team, you know, beat you at home like they did a couple of years ago? Absolutely. So this will be an interesting one for KU. And obviously when you are playing for the first time off of a long extended break, which

Starting point is 00:06:43 this is, there's always the question of, is there going to be a little bit of rust? And then you add in that Darren Peterson playing, like this team has played more games without Darren Peterson than with Darren Peterson. So there's a bit of almost rust to shake off in that way of just like re kind of organizing yourself in the right way to play with your best player and how everything else kind of feeds off of that a little bit more. So it'll be very interesting how KU performs in this one. And like I said, I think UCF's got a pretty good team.

Starting point is 00:07:12 So let's break down the Knights and their game coming up next. This is Locked on Jayhawks. Thanks to joining us today on the show, and we're brought to you by Ruggiet. Let's talk about something that most men don't bring up, but absolutely should. Stress from work, money, life, it doesn't just switch off at night. And when it shows up at the worst possible time, Ruggiet Rety is designed to help you take back control. Ruggiat Ready is a next generation prescription treatment, greater to support both brain and the body. So you can feel present, confident, and ready when the moment matters.

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Starting point is 00:08:26 Everydayer Club as well. So if you want to check out Locked on Jayhawks without having all the ads, and whether it's you're listening on Apple or you're listening on Spotify or any of your major podcast apps, you can do that ad-free by joining the Everydayer Club. The link for it is Lockedonjahawks.com. Of course, you also get an invite to the member's own locked on every day or club discord server, which includes a group chat just for listeners of the show. And you can chat about the college football transfer portal, college basketball, talk with some of the big 12 compadres. So check that out again. The link is locked on jhawks. supercast.com. We also have a link for it in the show notes here. Our KU taking on UCF on the road,

Starting point is 00:09:05 nights come in riding a 10-game winning streak, one of the best in the country. They're 11 and 1 on the season, top 50 on Ken Palm and Bark Torvick. They've got a top 30 offense. Defense is outside of the top 90. Johnny Dawkins is the head coach. And their only loss this season was by 12 points to a Vanderbilt team that has legitimately been one of the best teams in the country. So they haven't really shown much weakness so far.

Starting point is 00:09:33 And even in that game, like Vanderbilt put up like over 100 points and had a super efficient offensive game. It took Vanderbilt playing a very good game on the offensive end. You could say, okay, maybe the UCF defense isn't great, but it took Vanderbilt playing very well to beat them by 12. They do have two top 100 wins, and that's part of it, too, that they don't have a litany of, you know, big time wins at this point. But they did beat Texas A&M. That's a team that's just inside the top 50, and they won by 12 on the road. That can be a difficult place to play.

Starting point is 00:10:00 And then they had a semi-home game where they beat Pitt by 10. That's a team who struggled a bit, but they are still in the top 100 so far. You look at four strengths for UCF. The first is height. This is a taller team, especially when you look at the three through five positions for UCF. They've got some good size wings. They've got some good size. They can throw at you at the center position.

Starting point is 00:10:19 I think where that really pays off is on the glass, which we'll get to here in a second. But they're top 30 nationally in average height. The second strength is what I was just alluding to is the rebounding. 99th percentile in offensive rebound rate. This has been one of the best teams in the country in grabbing offensive rebounds. They're in the 80th percentile in defensive rebound rate. Now, again, you do have to be a percentile in offensive rebound rate. Now, again, you do have to kind of keep in mind a little bit here that some of these numbers are based on, you know, playing maybe a slightly easier schedule here than, say, Kansas, like, for instance, UCF has played the 198th most difficult schedule.

Starting point is 00:10:52 According to Ken Palm, Kansas has played the ninth. So, like, it is one thing to be like there in the 99th percent off as a rebound rate. What does that mean against better competition? Maybe it drops off a little. They're still probably good at it, though, right? Like, what if it drops off to being in the 80th percent out? Like, they're still really good at it, right? Then you look at shooting the basketball,

Starting point is 00:11:10 89th percentile effective field goal percentage, 92nd percent off field goal percentage, 97th percentile three point percentage, and almost 40 percent from three, and then the 86th percentile true shooting percentage. No matter what I look at there for those different numbers of scoring efficiency, they're ranking very well at it so far. Now, again, you look at some of the schedule stuff.

Starting point is 00:11:28 If you just look at the defenses they faced on Ken Palm, it ranks outside the top two defensive schedule faced. So again, take some of it with a grain of solid. But even if some of those numbers drop off because of the schedule and playing a tougher schedule, they're still probably good at it, right? And one of the things that they do really well is they play an analytically efficient game. They're in the 99th percentile right now and at the rim plus threes, right? If you're making shots around the rim and you're making your threes,

Starting point is 00:11:54 you're going to be a pretty dangerous offensive team. And that's something that they've done well so far this season. The transition scoring has been really good for UCF to this point. They're in the 87th percentile at 14.7 fast break points per game. They do a good job of scoring off turnovers, which fuels into this 73rd percentile in points off turnovers per game. But overall, this is a team that will run and will score in transition with a lot of different wings. You can get out and do just that. So definitely a team that you're going to have to be on your A game coming off a long break in terms of guarding transition defense.

Starting point is 00:12:28 It's interesting, too, because you think of the two recent games that KU has played since UCF's joined the league when they've gone to Orlando. and one was UCF beating Kansas, and the other was Kansas just throttling UCF, like one of the most complete dominant blowouts that I've seen in some time for KU. So it's like, well, we've seen two ends of the spectrum. What are we going to see this time? You look at four weaknesses for the Knights coming to this one. Not a team who gets to the free throw line a ton. They're in the 32nd percentile in free throw attempt rate.

Starting point is 00:12:59 They don't take a huge volume of three. So they're making them a really good clip, about 40 percent in terms of, their efficiency, their percentage from three, but they're only in the 23rd percentile. So in the bottom quarter of college basketball in their three-point attempt rate. So more of a, like you think of like last year's KU team, not quite like last year's KU team was a solid three-point shooting team, not quite up to 40 percent, but they didn't take a ton of threes, but they actually made them in an okay clip, a little bit like that for UCF. Also not much defensive chaos creation for UCF.

Starting point is 00:13:33 If they're just in the 23rd percentile on steel rate, they are just in the 46th percentile block rate. And overall, their Hakeem rate, which is steel plus block rate, is only in the 32nd percentile. And if you look at their three biggest games, because like I said, they have the two top 100 wins, then they've lost to Vanderbilt. If we just narrow the scope to those three specific games, they would just be in the 13th percentile. So one of the lower numbers in college basketball in defensive rating and Hakeem rate would be

Starting point is 00:14:01 tanked all the way down to the first percentile. So against the better competition, they really haven't gotten steals and blocks. And then the last weakness here is overall their turnover rate offensively is actually pretty good. They're not turning it over a ton this season. But again, if we narrow the focus to their three biggest games to see more like for like competition, they're only in the 30th percentile for turnover rate. So that's actually poor, below average, whatever you want to say. So it'll be interesting to see if that can be something of note in this game because we know Kansas has been better recently at forcing turnovers.

Starting point is 00:14:33 forcing steals. What is it going to be coming off the break? What is it going to be with Darren Peterson back? How are those numbers going to be affected there? Overall, Kansas doesn't have a great steel rate defensively. I think 19th percent on nationally. So it'll be interesting how that one goes. Players to watch here, let's start with the Kansas Jayhawks. I mean, one of them has to be Darren Peterson, right? If Darren Peterson's returning to this game, he's a player to watch because we haven't seen him a ton this year for KU, but it's also like what level of explosive Darren Peterson are you going to get? I feel like, I feel like at this point, it's like, Darren Peterson is like an action figure. He's like the G.I. Joe action figure

Starting point is 00:15:05 who it's like, this is the, I don't know, the tank driving G.I. Joe or whatever. Like, this is the the bazooka holding G.I. Joe. It's like, there's different versions of the G.I. Joe. And it's like, with Darren Peterson, it's like, is this going to be the explosive version? Is this going to be the not as explosive, but still making shots? Is this going to be a Darren Peterson that we haven't seen yet, which is like he's grabbing, you know, six, seven, eight rebounds, you know? I don't know. It's just going to be kind of interesting what you get there. But Peterson's been really good when he's played. I put out a stat on Twitter the other day about, um, with Peterson, like, if you look at the, so CBB Analytics has been tracking this stuff since like 2018, 2019. And if you look at like wins above replacement player

Starting point is 00:15:49 per 40 minutes, I think was the number I was looking at, like the best mark for KU player since 2018 was, gosh, was it, it might have been doke in in 2020 or something. It was like point 1. Maybe it was Deidre Clausen. I don't even remember. It was 0.41 per 40 minutes. Darren Peterson, obviously been injured and it's more limited samples. I see that 0.44 right now.

Starting point is 00:16:10 So, like, he's been pretty incredible. Do we see him and do we see him for the home stretch? And it's not just about, like, watching him when he's out there and enjoy him when he's out there because I guess at this point, you don't know how much you're going to see. But can he make it through the full game? Right. That's kind of a big question here as well. Another KU player to watch in this one, I think that I'll be interested to see what Melvin

Starting point is 00:16:28 counsel does in another road game. The last time we saw, I mean, Melvin Council finished the first half of the season playing very well for KU. Can he continue to carry that over after the long break? But also, he was the one that kind of won KU that game on the road at NC State. Now playing in the road again, can he have a big game for KU once more? For UCF, their players to watch, we're going to start with Riley Kugel. That's right. The same guy who he was at Florida for a couple years commits the Kansas in the portal season. Then the two parties weren't able to just make it work for reason. I think some of the rumor was like it just didn't work out like credits wise or whatever. Who knows? But he ends up not being able to go to KU, ends up going to Mississippi State has a decent season last year for the Bulldogs. And now he goes to UCF and he's having a good year.

Starting point is 00:17:13 13.7 points per game. Two and a half assists per game. He's shooting 40% from three. It is weird. And by the way, if you're looking for, I don't know, do we count Riley Coogle as a former Jayhawk? If we do, they've got another former Jayhawk who never actually like played a game for KU.

Starting point is 00:17:30 Chris Johnson. Do you remember he was like a, I think he was top 100. Was he like top 80 maybe? Like four star recruit. I think he decommitted late in the game from KU ended up going to Texas. He was somewhere else last year. And then he works his way up to UCF. So they've got a couple KU de facto factors here. But Kugle has had a good season. He's certainly one to watch here. The other guys, Michael Stillwell. He's somebody that we profiled a little bit in our offseason talking about like KU basketball portal targets and talked about Stillwell being at least a decent option. option for KU if they were looking for like a bench big man to come in and provide them rebounding and athleticism and pogostick mentality. Well, who knows what he was looking for? He might have been wanting a starting spot and good for him because he went to UCF. He's been putting up big numbers, 12.6 points per game, 8.8 rebounds per game, 1.4 steals per game on 56%. You're basically going to get rim running, athleticism, dunks, rebounding, and solid defense. Like that's what you're going to get from Jim Michael Stillwell. And he's certainly somebody who can, you know, with those types of plays, raise the roof, for lack of a better term,

Starting point is 00:18:33 when they're playing at home to try to keep the energy high for UCF. Let's get to our keys to the game for the KU offense, KU defense, our player matchup of the game. Hawks the Sore, all that next. This is locked on Jayhawks. Today's episode of the show is brought to you by Fandual Sportsbook. Friday's already feel different during basketball season. Fandual is making them even better. Every Friday night, which is tonight, before the game tips off, Fandwell gives fans a new

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Starting point is 00:20:01 Don't forget, you can check out Locked on College basketball or locked on college football for your second listen every day. Okay, keys to the game for KU against UCF. Let's start with the KU offense. I think the key for the KU offense is take care of the basketball and make your threes. So UCF has not been the greatest defense this year, but it's also kind of a small sample size to tell some of these things. UCF's loan loss, Vanderbilt.

Starting point is 00:20:25 Vanderbilt had just six turnovers. There's not been a UCF team four. seeing a ton of it. So if you have a high turnover number, that probably means something went wrong for you. Maybe it's the rust. Maybe it's the time off where, you know, you haven't played a ton as much with Peterson and the combination of those things and missing a few weeks, losing your rhythm a little bit. That could be something there that you're trying to avoid. Maybe that could affect three-point shooting as well, especially if you're on the road. Now, the fact that Peterson would be back, you would think that kind of helps you here in this

Starting point is 00:20:51 area. But I think if you take care of the basketball and make your threes, you'll be in a good spot on the offensive end of the floor. Now, the defensive end of the floor wall up at the rim. UCF is in the 81st percentile for shots at the rim in terms of how often they take them. So one of the higher numbers in terms of the frequency of them shooting at the rim. They're also making their shots at the rim at a 71 percent clip that is in the 91st percentile nationally. So they shoot a lot at the rim. They make a lot of them at the rim. So I think it's interesting because when you talk about like at the rim numbers when you're talking about shooting around the rim. There's a lot of different ways you can get there, obviously, like somebody could drive to

Starting point is 00:21:28 the rim, somebody could post up, somebody could throw a lob. There's a lot of different, like, the sausage is made a little bit differently for how you get a shot at the rim, depending on what you want to do. Well, UCF specifically, they are in the 80th percentile in Biggs running to the rim. Now, what is that? Think after a screen, think after a pick and roll, think cutting to the rim, probably more the former. And then they're in the 82nd percentile in postups. So they'll play high low, they'll run picking pops, they'll run pick and rolls. Basically, it's a lot of actions where the bigs are going to screen and then play off of that or they're going to get the big post up, right? So that gets very involved there. What's interesting to me, and I don't think this is a

Starting point is 00:22:09 great thing here as we go over this, is the games that KU played against top 100 teams. So that's a pretty good amount for KU. I think it's like eight games or something. If you look at just top 100 teams KU has played so far, who have at least a 70th percentile or higher of frequency of Biggs running to the rim and or 70th percentile or higher in post-up actions. These are the games. North Carolina, they're in the 90th percentile in Biggs to the rim, 92nd in post-ups. And that was KU's worst defensive game by points allowed for possession. Tennessee is in the 100th percentile in Biggs going.

Starting point is 00:22:51 into the rim. They are also in the 79th percentile in post-ups. That was KU's third worst game by points allowed by possession. UConn isn't a big post-up team, but they are in the 99th percentile in Biggs cutting and rolling. That was KU's fifth worst game by points allowed per possession, albeit, you know, that did take Yukon and getting a bunch of offensive rebounds, but then again, you could say Torres-Reed was out, who's really good at both of those things for them. NC State is like Yukon a little bit, 74th percentile in Biggs cutting and rolling frequency. but not much post-up game. Well, that was KU's fourth-worst defensive game of the season.

Starting point is 00:23:26 And one of the things, too, I should mention, like if we're talking about KU's fifth worst and fourth-worst, even though that was KU's fourth-worst defensive game of the season, this shows how good the KU defense has been because that was NC State's second-worst offensive game of the season. But point being, Duke is in, Duke didn't miss the cut here, or just missed the cut here, but they're in the 69th percentile, so right around it in the big's cutting and rolling.

Starting point is 00:23:48 They're only in the 68th percentile in post-ups. So again, just barely missed the cut. But if you did want to extend it out to them and wanted to count that one, Duke actually had the second most efficient offensive game that KU surrendered this year. Now, again, you could point to those and say, okay, but, you know, even though it was somebody has to be the second best or third best or fourth best against what's been a good KU defense so far. And overall, even though some of those performances are some of the worst, quote unquote,

Starting point is 00:24:14 the KU has given up, they're still actually pretty good overall, especially considering the competition and especially considering you're facing Camboozer and Caleb Wilson and Henry Vassar and obviously the North Carolina game was not a good defensive game. But UCF does at least stylistically go into this category of some of those teams that have not necessarily given KU trouble, North Carolina did. Duke did at certain points, but it was a little more inconsistent. They do kind of follow that category of playing style that we have seen be some of KU's worst defensive games of the season so far. Now again, the talent is different. I like some of the UCF talent, but it's not Camboozer. It's not Caleb Wilson. It's not Henry Bissar, right?

Starting point is 00:24:52 So that's going to be kind of interesting. Do without what you will. Our player match up here is Jordan Berks against Trey White. Like White, Berks plays the three and the four. He's got a team high right now, 13.8 points per game. He's shooting 49 from the field, 40 from 3, 87 at the foul line. And he's six foot nine, so it gives them a lot of size and versatility throughout the lineup. I didn't really realize this. I was looking at some of the split stats. Trey White's got a little bit of a Zeke Mayo going right now. What do I mean by that? He's shooting 52% from three-point range at home.

Starting point is 00:25:24 He's only shooting 29% from three-point range on the road. So can that be a number that goes up in this game? KU's going to need it, right? And then I think just in general, like KU needs White to step up and have a big game on both ends of the floor, right? If you're going to be guarding Berks, giving them some offensive punch here for the Jayhawks. Our Hawks, the soar in this one,

Starting point is 00:25:46 and looking back in some of the bigger games, they played. UCF played an exhibition game against Duke. Camboozer had 33 and 12. They played an exhibition game against LSU. Markill Sutton, who's the four-man in LSU's scheme, a good player went for 14 and 11. Then in their regulation games against Vanderbilt, everyone kind of scored for Vanderbilt at over 100 points, but Tyler Nicol, who plays the three and the four for them, had 17 against Texas A&M, the primary four man, McKenzie and Baco, who didn't play, and I think has since been announced out for the season. So it was Roshan 8. I don't know if it's Agee or Agee. It should be Aggie if he's playing for

Starting point is 00:26:22 Texas A&M. Anyway, he went for 13 and 8. And then against Pittsburgh, Barry Dunning, who's basically like a 6 foot 6 wing who plays the 4 for them at 14 and 6. So what are those all have in common? They're players who either primarily or will slide down to the 4. And I look at that and I say, okay, Trey White and Bryson Taylor, one of you two, maybe go back to Tray White has an opportunity to have a big game here. Maybe we'll just pick Darren Peterson, you know, but yeah, we'll go Trey White officially as our Hock to sore. I'll let it over for this episode of Lockdown Jayhawks. You can find our show anywhere you get your podcast, including on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe to the show. And we'll see you after the game for

Starting point is 00:26:57 a little KUUCF postcast right here on LOJ.

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - POWERED UP: Kansas Counting on Darryn Peterson's Return to DELIVER at UCF Knights in Big 12 Opener

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