Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - PROOF That Kansas Jayhawks Preseason Rank on Torvik is MORE VALUABLE Than Human Polls

Starting point is 00:00:00 Mark Torvick says Kansas is good. Humans say Kansas is bad. I'm here to show you the data that says trust Torvick. You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks, part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. What's up, Derek Johnson? This is Locked on Jayhawks on today's episode. We've got a fun episode.

Starting point is 00:00:29 We're going to get to some of the latest news, some of the latest with some of the different court discussions. We're going to get to an update from KU Football Canucks. We heard from Terrence Samuel, the receivers coach, Brandon Shelby, the DB's coach. So some interesting insights there to get to. We're going to start off talking more humans versus computers, Bart Torvik versus A people. We talked a little bit about this the other day, but going a little bit deeper with some numbers here. Because, again, Bart Torvik likes Kansas, right?

Starting point is 00:00:54 Some of the analytic sites like Kansas. Torvick's got KU at 10th. They move up even further if they can add, you know, Trey White or some of these other players. Shooty Hoops has them 12th. and again, move up with some of these additions. Evan Mekawa has them as like a top 20 team. But then you look at some of the human polls and they have Kansas, you know, outside the top 25, potentially even outside the top 30,

Starting point is 00:01:17 looking at you, John Rothstein, right? And there is such a big difference, such a big gap between where the two are. So I actually wanted to go back and put some numbers to this just to not be like, oh, of course I trust the computers for this. Like, I wanted to actually like take a look at what the numbers say as part of this. So working off yesterday's episode, and again, think of the everydayers, if you already caught it, I wanted to go and look at the average miss of preseason polls since the 2022 to 23 season. Why that season, that was the start of the big NIL portal era.

Starting point is 00:01:50 Again, the NIL era started the year before in 21, 22, but we just heard from Bill Self on that podcast where he was kind of talking about like, the big NIL started the next off season. So I just thought that was most apropos here when you're looking at, the shuffling of rosters and how that has impacted things and people entering the portal and stars leaving their teams for other big money opportunities that this era is more akin to that range right so i wanted to go back to that season again we're going to use ken pom's final rankings as the final target and basically what i did is this i went back and looked at the preseason barc torvick rankings preseason top 25 i should say and i went back and looked at the ap poll preseason top 25 right and

Starting point is 00:02:33 And then I basically just said, hey, this team was number one in the preseason A people. They finish whatever fifth on Ken Palm. That would mean you get four points. Points are bad in this scenario. I guess it's like golf. You were four spots off, right? Then you pick another team that was picked eighth and they finished 24th. That would be 16 points, right?

Starting point is 00:02:53 So you add up all of these together and how far off were all of these picks from where they finished in the final Ken Palm rankings, right? So looking at Bartorvik, interestingly enough, this past season, it was pretty good. From what I could tell, if you were around like 10 or 11 spots off, like that seems to be pretty good. So this past season, they were under 10 spots off per team. The year before, they were about 11 spots off per team. And then it was really tough the two years before. I mean, they were off, you know, almost 16 spots per team. but it outperformed the AP poll all four seasons.

Starting point is 00:03:38 Okay. So this past season, Torvick's top 25 was off by a collection of 241 spots. AP poll was actually really close this year, 244 spots. The year before, it wasn't close. Bart Torvik was off by 270 spots, AP poll 355. Year before that, Torvick was off 391 spots. AP poll was off 450. year before that, it's 388 to 401.

Starting point is 00:04:03 So you total it all together. Over these past four seasons, basically on average, the preseason Bart Torvik teams that were in the top 25 were about 13 spots off from where they were. Now, it's a little misleading because you could have some teams that are up six spots. Some teams are down six spots. Some teams are up 20 spots. Some teams are down 20 spots. So that doesn't necessarily give a direction. I think for one, it also shows that like, you know, at the end of the day, the preseason polls are not going to carry that much weight.

Starting point is 00:04:39 If there's that much movement, we've seen it before where KU's been, you know, preseason top five team and finished ranked at the back end of the top 25 or something like that. But on average, teams are 12.9 spots off of their preseason ranking on Bart Torvick. When you look at the AP poll over those four seasons, that number rise. to 14 and a half spots off per top 25 team. It doesn't sound like a huge difference. It's a 1.6 difference. Over the course of four years with, you know, 100 teams, you're talking 160 spots difference there, right?

Starting point is 00:05:15 So it is a pretty wide difference in that Torvik, and again, every year has been better, has been more successful at this than the AP poll. Now, that doesn't guarantee that because there's enough margin between those two an error between those two that, okay, well, every team ranked better in Torvik is going to finish that way as opposed to the eight people. It doesn't guarantee that. But again, it just goes to the idea of like, I'm going to trust what Bart Torvick's telling me that Kansas's top 10 team, then John Rothstein telling me that they're a bubble team. You know what I mean? Now, what if we use the top 10

Starting point is 00:05:48 out of comparison, right? If we use the top 10, Mark Torvick's preseason top 10 teams over the last four seasons were an average of nine and a half spots off, whereas the AP poll, their preseason top 10 teams over the last four seasons were an average of 10.6 spots off. So again, you're talking about over a spot difference between the two, clearly a winner for Bart Torvik. So again, it just kind of goes in line with that exact line of thinking. I also wanted to look back at like exceptions to the rule. I was curious, how often is there a team that like Torvick's really high on? So a preseason top 10 team on Bart Torvik that was outside the top 15 in the AP poll. And honestly, it's really rare, which would put Kansas right now in rarefied air.

Starting point is 00:06:35 Because if there was an AP poll right now, based on everything you're seeing, Kansas would not be a top 15 team in the preseason on the AP poll. But right now they're in the top 10 of Torvick. It's only happened three times in the last four seasons that that has happened. And this past year was the best example in favor of Kansas. Illinois this past year was ranked eighth in the preseason on Torvik. They were only 17th in the AP poll. They obviously made a final four and they finished fifth on Kenpom that year. Now, two years before that, 2023 to 24, this is going to be a bad example.

Starting point is 00:07:11 USC was ninth on Torvick. They were 21st in the AP poll and they tanked. They were outside the top 80 on Ken Palm and they went 15 and 18. But that's just one where both people, like the case of Illinois is that Torvick thought they were going to be really good. The AP poll thought they'd be solid and they were really good. In the case of the USC one, it's like Torvick thought they'd be really good. A.P. Poll thought they'd be solid and they were just horrible.

Starting point is 00:07:40 So really both were wrong. And then the other example for it to happen was in 2022 to 2023. And that was when Arizona was ranked 10th on Torvix, so barely clear in the list there. And there were 17th in the AP poll. Now, this one's going to be an example of the eye of the beholder because Arizona went 28 and 7 and got a two seat in the NCAA tournament, right? That's a really good season in general. What makes it not a great season is that they lost in the first round. They got upset by Princeton.

Starting point is 00:08:11 So do you point to that and go, well, I'll see the AP poll voters are right. Or do you point to that and say, well, March is weird. they actually had a really good season and outperformed their AP poll ranking, right? So that's kind of the eye of the beholder one there. But I guess what I'm saying is this, right? I trust the computers more in the preseason. Not saying the human eye isn't good, it is. We're not saying the human eye isn't valuable.

Starting point is 00:08:33 It is. And I think in season, when we can evaluate more, you know, what we're seeing, take into account some eye test things, you know, who's injured, who's playing well right now, those are important to add in to the metric stuff, right? It's important to not just fully rely on one thing. But especially in the preseason, when we have not seen these teams play, I'm taking Bart Torvik or Ken Palm or Evan Miyakawa over the human A people. And I think that becomes especially true in today's era of college basketball, where there's so many moving parts.

Starting point is 00:09:12 I mean, think about us from humans to begin with, right? we suck at predicting things. If I could pick who is going to win the Super Bowl every year, if I could pick every team who would be in the top 25 every year, you know how much money I would make? I wouldn't be doing this show. No, I probably would still be doing this show. I love talking to you guys.

Starting point is 00:09:26 But it's just especially true in today's era of college basketball, right? International players, waivers for extra seasons, robust transfer portal, NIL, player movement at its max, so many moving pieces, less development of high school kids. kids, so much roster shuffling year to year, coach shuffling from season to season. And because of that and all the chaos, this isn't the same process for humans to rank a preseason poll as it was 10 years ago. This isn't the same as 20 years ago when you could say, hey, you know, this Kansas team was

Starting point is 00:10:06 a four seed. They made the sweet 16. And now they bring all these guys back. I expect them to take a big jump. It's not that simple anymore. It's taken, oh, this one. part came back for Kansas and they added this other part from this other team, this other part from this other team. They added this high school freshman. It's like how do you compare these things?

Starting point is 00:10:22 And then you're added in the international kids. It's not like it was 10 or 20 years ago. So again, just for the preseason especially, give me the computers for the ratings. And to that notion, KU's in a much better spot than the national media, then the haters, then the doubters are leading people to believe for the Jayhawks coming into the 2026 to 2020. 27 season. Let's get to some KU football updates from fall camp. This is Locked on Jayhawks. Today's episode is brought to you by Fandul.

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Starting point is 00:12:00 Latest from Fall Camp for KU Football, who I guess a couple weeks out now from the start of the season, what? Less than 20 days at this point, I think that's right. So we heard from Brandon Shelby, the DB's coach, and Terrence Samuel, the receivers coach. Let's start with Shelby here. Talking about Roman Pearson,

Starting point is 00:12:18 the transfer in from Ball State, It's six foot three long framed corner. And I've mentioned this before. Whenever you hear the coaching staff talk about consistent, if they use that word or if they describe, like Brandon Shelby didn't actually use the word consistent talking about Pearson, but he kept describing things that make you consistent. Like, oh, he doesn't get up and down.

Starting point is 00:12:44 You know, he's very level-headed. Like those are things that this staff values above everything else. because they're basically saying, hey, anybody can have a good day, anybody, but we want you to have stacked good days. And so I'd, you know, in their mind, they'd rather take 30 days of B work than somebody who had an A 10 days, a B plus four days, a B minus four days, a C plus three days, you know what I mean? They want the consistency there, right? And so that, as we've kind of seen a bunch of these db's injured and who's going to win that other corner spot next to jalen todd roman pearson has that consistency nod that's a good place to be now i think austin alexander has the talent do it played a lot

Starting point is 00:13:29 of reps last year he's been battling some injury stuff and shelby did talk about him he said he's right about that 100 percent he's made a lot of plays the last couple days so it feels like he's coming on at the right time and mentioned him kind of you know being a ball hawk over the last couple of days here right I guess that could be bad news, though, because that means the quarterbacks are throwing interceptions. Which quarterback is thrown in danger at Austin, Alexander? That's the question there, right? Then when he was talking about, you know, Gibbs, the corner transfer came in last year from Georgia Tech, played a lot in the slot as a nickel a season ago for KU. Sounds like this year, Shelby made more of a mention that, you know, okay, it's good that he has that nickel experience where

Starting point is 00:14:10 it's like, hey, if we have some injuries, he could go back there. Sounds like he's playing more outside. I wonder how much of that is by necessity because of some of the injuries versus is he just better there? Like, it'll be interesting to see what his role is on the team. And then the continued praise of the young freshman, Trey Brown comes in. Shelby used terms. These are exact terms from him. Football junkie lives in our offices. Like those are the things you want to see from your freshman. And again, he kind of reiterated that we could see him on the field as soon as this year as a true freshman. And then kind of the last thing here, this is more of a team-wide, I guess goal for Shelby. But he mentioned the biggest things this year are takeaways and limit explosive plays.

Starting point is 00:14:51 And it feels like an obvious because, yes, those things are both great and in general. But I do appreciate him coming out and saying it because those are real areas that KU needed to improve from a season ago. So yeah, I do want him to come out and say that even if it is the obvious, right? I'd rather that than just be like, well, we were, you know, better than we were better than we thought last year. We just, you know, blah, blah, blah, blah. No, like, yeah, that's what I want to hear, right? KU's defense was in the 10th percentile last year in limiting an explosive place.

Starting point is 00:15:20 They were really bad limiting explosive plays. Now, some of that is against the run, yada, yada, yada, but a lot of that's against the past, too. KU was also just 15th of the 16 teams in the Big 12 with interceptions with four. None of them came from the corners. That has to change this season for Kansas. Candace was also just 12 in the big 12 in fumbles recovered. So they need to force more turnovers.

Starting point is 00:15:42 They need to jump on more balls. They need to get more interceptions. They need to limit more explosive plays. And if they can do those things, just inherently, they should be a better defense just on those things alone, right? And that's before even getting to a potentially improved front seven. Then we also heard from Terrence Samuel, the receiver's coach. He mentioned that Keaton and Cam are doing a really good job.

Starting point is 00:16:02 So Keaton, Quebec, Cam Pickett, doing a really good job of leading the group. that those guys have kind of stepped up there. And that'll be interesting with Keaton, Quebec, because he also mentioned that his confidence levels jumped. He said this is by far his best camp. When you look at Naze Cox, I've heard really good things so far. And Terrence Samuel, you know,

Starting point is 00:16:21 brought him up in a good way as well. Could we have a, and I don't mean to say that Naze Cox is going to be as good as Austin Booker was. That's not at all what I'm saying. But just in the same ilk of Hayden Hatcher, the veteran, you know, been around the program was the starter over Austin Booker, even though Booker would wind up playing more snaps and being more impactful.

Starting point is 00:16:46 It would not shock me if we see that with Quebec. Technically, the starter, Cox comes in for him, plays more snaps and makes a bigger impact. But you're giving kind of a nod to a player who's a leader and has kind of stepped up his game over the course of his KU career. We also heard about Nick McMillan. He said he's got really good ball skills. He's got a strong frame. which I liked hearing that because, you know, looking at, looking at, I don't know, some height weights and stuff.

Starting point is 00:17:11 Like he doesn't seem like the biggest guy in the world, but you want to hear the strong frame part of it. And then the last kind of bit here is kind of a circling mystery at this point that Cam Pickett apparently has not been, you know, dressed and going for practice the last couple of availability with the media. And Terrence Samuel just kind of said, managing his reps is all they're doing. He said, no issues, which is that just. Is that just coach covering up the injury? Doesn't want to give something away. Is that something that's actually serious?

Starting point is 00:17:43 I don't know. That'll be very interesting because before the injury stuff, I had heard some good things about Cam Pickett's offseason as well for KU, and obviously he already had a pretty productive season a year ago too. Let's finish up with some of the latest news, including in college basketball and the courts. This is Locked on Jayhawks. Our episode today is brought to you by GameTime. there are more alive events than ever worth seeing right now.

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Starting point is 00:19:15 create an account redeem code locked on l-c k ed on for $20 off download the game time app today finishing up with some of the latest news here on lock down j hawks and some of this will be going over some melvin council stuff which we did a separate episode talking melvin council that came out late monday night so check that one out as well and thank you to the everydayers if you are already did on that one. Real quick, before we get to that part of it, though, Jaden Henley, who we did a deep dive on, thought he would be a really interesting player for KU to go after. He actually resigned with Grand Canyon, so one player potentially off the board there. All right, moving to the court stuff. So this was tweeted out by Sam Erlich, who is a, I don't know,

Starting point is 00:20:00 associate professor, ex-lawyer at Boise State and stuff. But apparently the NCAA's motion for a stay is been granted in the state of Ohio. So if you remember the Ohio case with some different players, and I'll get you the players here that this impacts in a second, but there were some players in Ohio that were the first, I guess, area or state or whatever to sue the NCAA for ability to play. And they basically won the injunction at first to be able to have that eligibility of the five and five year.

Starting point is 00:20:37 But then the NCAA appealed. It went to this court. And they're basically saying the court is basically saying the injunction ain't going to fly, meaning that the players are not eligible by this motion. They're not eligible by this motion. But it's not saying they never be eligible. It's just saying we're going to actually have to go to the case to figure out if they should or shouldn't be eligible. Now, there is the Colorado case right now, the Wisney versus the NCAA.

Starting point is 00:21:07 where basically the Colorado judge ruled for class-wide, class of 2022, to be eligible. So all these players in Ohio are currently eligible by the Colorado one. But if the Colorado one gets overturned or doesn't go the right way, then all of a sudden all these players from Ohio are not eligible anymore until the case finishes and they can hope they win the case. So it gets complicated here. And this does have some impact on some teams Kansas is going to be vying with. Like MJ Collins had a really good year at Utah State.

Starting point is 00:21:36 he was like even practicing with Cincinnati. I think he was even playing in their exhibition games for Cincinnati, right? Javon Bennett going to Gonzaga. They certainly needed that addition, not that KU's playing them so far this season. But Kaden Powell going back to Baylor, that would be one that is in Ohio here. So some interesting ones that, you know, teams that Kansas could be playing. So it'll be interesting to see where that goes. And again, it kind of all boils down to this Colorado case and just kind of waiting on

Starting point is 00:22:06 pins and needles for what's going to happen there. As far as Melvin Council, like I said, full episode discussing this and plenty more on Melvin earlier. But hearing is now set for September 4th. The hearing is for a motion for temporary injunction. And I don't know, I guess a bunch of kind of legalese here. But basically the NCAA has like 30 days after this to submit a response. basically they can try to push this out a little.

Starting point is 00:22:37 I wonder if Melvin Council's team will try to get this moved up. I wonder if the judge will see it that way because of the start of the school year and the impact of that. But point being, again, the Melvin Council one, a little bit more complicated, it feels like, than the Trey White one in trying to get him eligible and seeing if KU can get another year out of the guard from New York. I don't know for this episode of Lockdown Jayhawks. You can find our show anywhere you get your podcast, including on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe. to the show. We'll have more deep dives for you. We'll have more football episodes. We'll have more basketball episodes. So make sure you're subscribed anywhere you get your podcast, including on YouTube and see you next time on LOJ.

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - PROOF That Kansas Jayhawks Preseason Rank on Torvik is MORE VALUABLE Than Human Polls

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