Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Ranking Kansas Jayhawks Football's 10 Remaining Games + Guaranteed Rate Bowl Flashback vs UNLV

Starting point is 00:00:00 On today's Locked on Jayhawks, we rank KU's 10 remaining games from easiest to hardest, and a little flashback to last year's Guarantee Rate Bowl, what it can tell us about this go-around between Kansas and UNLV. You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network. Your team every day. I'm Derek Johnson. You can find me on Twitter at DJohnsonRadio.

Starting point is 00:00:33 This is Locked On Jayhawks. Thanks for making it your first listen every day. And thank you to the everydayers catching each and every show. We are free and available anywhere you get your podcasts. You can also find us on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe to the show. And on today's edition of LOJ, we're ranking KU's final 10 games. And by the difficulty from easiest to hardest, we're also going to get into what happened in the guaranteed rate bowl several months ago and what it can teach us for this year's rendition of Kansas versus UNLV. Today's episode of the show is brought to you by 5-Hour Energy. Go to

Starting point is 00:01:05 5hourenergy.com and use promo code LOCKEDONCFB and you can receive 20% off your order with 5-Hour Energy. We're going to start with ranking the easiest games, I guess you would say, and then we're going to work to the five hardest as part of this. Now, before I specifically get to what number 10 is, I'll say this. I think every game on the schedule from here on out is still winnable. I don't look at a single game on the schedule and be like, no chance Kansas can win that game, even after they lost to Illinois. That's the good news. Bad news is that I can also look at every game and be like, yeah, they could lose that game. And I think part of that is the opponents. Most of the teams you're

Starting point is 00:01:43 playing are teams that could theoretically win four, five seven games like maybe there's there's one exception we'll get to here which actually might surprise you where it's ranked um but like there's there's no team where it's like like even k-state who might be projected to win i don't know nine or ten games or something like it's not like k-state is expected to be a top five like like georgia basically right like you can win that game even if you're expected to be a top five, like, like Georgia, basically, right? Like you can win that game, even if you're going to be underdogs, you know what I mean? So that is part of this, that there is no right and wrong answer in a certain way. And that realistically, like some of these, like the one that is number four is probably all not that

Starting point is 00:02:20 different than like number seven on this list, I guess is where I'm getting to. So it really is splitting hairs and you can make arguments anyway okay what is the 10 number 10 game what is the easiest game on the schedule for KU remaining I don't know this might be controversial this is not me just trying to get headlines or something is Colorado at home against Colorado so it is a home game it is your last game of the regular season in terms of your last home game I should say of the regular season you still have one more road game after that. So it'll be a bit of a colder game for a Colorado team that, I don't know, I don't feel like they're physically tough.

Starting point is 00:02:51 They're a passing football team. They can't really run the football. They're not like a smash-mouth defense or anything. I don't think playing in cold weather and Arrowhead is going to be good for them. On top of that, it's later in the year. Okay, it's also senior day for KU, so there's boosted motivation. On top of that, there's also other solid opponents that you could split hairs is Colorado better or worse than and then the other part of it is like probably right now on paper a good thing that Kansas plays Colorado

Starting point is 00:03:14 later in the season because if things go south on Colorado as they did in the Nebraska game which who knows maybe they'll bounce back from this and be okay. I think they'll probably beat up on Colorado state this week, but nonetheless, if things aren't going well, like at what point does some of their players like Travis Hunter, Shadur Sanders pull the plug and say, okay, you know, we're, we're sitting at five and five. We ain't playing for a big 12 title or anything like that. I'm not getting hurt. We're going to the NFL draft. Like, I don't know, that could be something that helps KU in this matchup. So that is why I have it as number 10 on the list, the easiest game. You might be thinking, okay, well, what about Houston?

Starting point is 00:03:51 Houston lost by 20 to UNLV. Like, people are thinking they could win one or two games. Well, Houston just nearly beat Oklahoma. And while I think that maybe says more about the Oklahoma offense and some of the struggles they're going to have and also was a perfect moment of, like, playing well whereas Houston did play well and also we've seen Willie Fritz with Willie Fritz had a two and ten to lane team that nearly beat Oklahoma in Norman so for whatever reason he plays them well even though one was with Lincoln Riley and this

Starting point is 00:04:19 one with Brent Venables is a different head coach the reason I have it ahead of Colorado even though I think Colorado wins more games than Houston, is because there was that possible opt-out factor. But also, Willie Fritz has that X factor that he's going to get his team up to play. They're going to play tough and physical. I don't think Kansas is going to blow out Houston. I'm going to pick Kansas to beat Houston. Maybe I'll pick them to win by, you know, 10 points or something. But like, I don't know, Willie Fritz is a very good head football coach. And I think that he won't make it easy, I guess would be the easy way to say it. So I have that number nine on the list. Number eight on the list is at Baylor.

Starting point is 00:05:00 You know, Baylor's defense actually looked good early this season, right? He held Utah to under 30 points, albeit if Cam Rising stays healthy, they probably do score well above that mark. But Baylor's defense through the first two games of the season has looked good. Baylor's offense, though, has not looked that good. So if this is a situation where you're having to go on the road, but they can't score a lot of points, I like what KU's defense showed in the Baylor game.

Starting point is 00:05:24 I think you're going to have an opportunity to win this one on the road against a Baylor team that, who knows, by that point in the season, again, when you're talking late in the year, if Baylor's not having the season that you would expect, or I don't know, traditionally expect, I guess you would say, over the last 15 years, if they're sitting there 5-6, 4-7 coming into the game, Dave Aranda might be fired by that point, and then that kind of changes things as well.

Starting point is 00:05:46 Number seven on the list is this week versus UNLV. I thought about making the Baylor game a little bit higher, but I kind of think UNLV is a better football team than Baylor is. Now, I thought about making this one higher on the list too with UNLV because I think they're a very good team that is going to contend to be the group of five representative in the college football playoff. But the reason I didn't put UNLV higher is because, A, it's a home game. B, Kansas coming off a loss.

Starting point is 00:06:08 You should have your attention into this one. On top of that, it was hard for me to put them ahead of, like, some games that are on the road against power opponents and the rest of this list. But make no mistake, UNLV is a good football team. And like I said with this whole list, like, all these games are winnable. All these games are losable. Number six on the list is the home game against TCU that's a game that's in Arrowhead we that'll be the first game in Arrowhead so we don't totally know what the impact of that home field advantage or is there going to be like how impactful is it

Starting point is 00:06:42 going to be is it going to be even better Because hypothetically you could fill it with more people. Is it going to be worse? Because it could be more cavernous that you could technically fill it with more people than Memorial Stadium was holding. You could have 50,000 people in there, but it's not going to feel like it if you do, because there'd be 20,000 empty seats, right? So that'll be kind of an interesting thing with how that works out. I have been, I don't know.

Starting point is 00:07:04 I think TCU is a better football team than they were a season ago. I think TCU has some good receivers. I think that TCU is going to be a team that can win, you know, seven or eight games. But also in that Stanford game, like, and I thought TCU's defense was much better than it was a season ago. I didn't think TCU was a great, I mean, Stanford's not a great team. They had to win a close one on the road, which honestly, that's probably a good reminder that, Hey, you lost at Illinois and Illinois probably going to win like six or seven games this year.

Starting point is 00:07:32 TCU barely beat Stanford on the road who might win two or three games, right? It's hard to win on the road in college football, but this one is at home. So that's the good news. TCU should be a pretty good team. KU's actually played TCU. Like when you look at even the years when Kansas was down, they were playing TCU close at least. They weren't winning a lot of the games, but they were playing them close, which is more than you could say for a lot of other teams.

Starting point is 00:07:53 So that one is number six on the list. But I just think that like playing TCU, UNLV at home, if UNLV was playing against TCU, TCU would be favored. So that's why I kind of had it a little bit higher. But what's scary is, you know, before last week where you had that Illinois game, if I was ranking the 11 remaining games last week, where would Illinois have ranked among this list? I think it probably would be a little harder than what you would rank Houston and Colorado, though part of that comes with Colorado losing to Nebraska to impact that opinion there. Would we view the at Illinois game as easier or harder than the at Baylor game? Or what about the UNLV game or the TCU game,

Starting point is 00:08:36 something like that? I do think it would be on the bottom half of this list. And that's what's scary is that it would be on the bottom half of this list for me and you lost the game. So again, that shows kind of the idea that it's like, yeah, you could win any of these games. You could lose any of these games. You got to play your A game, and that was certainly not that this past Saturday. But fortunately, still a lot of game to go for KU football.

Starting point is 00:08:56 All right, let's get into the top five most challenging games for KU remaining on their football schedule here in 2024. Episode today is brought to you by Ultimate College Football Head Coach. In this amazing game and simulation, you get to step into the shoes of a head coach and lead your college football program to glory. Can you imagine actually being the head coach of the Jayhawks or whatever school you want? From recruiting players and hiring coaching staffs to overseeing training camps and handling school scholarships, you control every crucial detail of your program. It's all in your hands, literally, because you can play on

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Starting point is 00:10:12 That's ultimate-cfb.com or look it up on the app store or play store. Ultimate College Football Head Coach. Begin your coaching legacy today. Thank you to every dare. Tune in to each and every episode make your second listen locked on college football okay what about into the top five top five most difficult games remaining on the ku football schedule and then we'll get into a little more ku unlv talk number five is arizona state i've been really impressed with the sun devils they absolutely demolished

Starting point is 00:10:43 wyoming in week one. Now, Wyoming might not be a very good team, but that's also a team that's been going to bowl games the past handful of years. Now they have a new coach, lost some players. Wyoming did just lose to Idaho out of the FCS, but Idaho almost beat Oregon, and Idaho's a top 10 ranked FCS team.

Starting point is 00:11:01 So it's like, I don't know. We're going to learn more as the season goes on about Wyoming and Arizona State. And then Arizona State this past weekend against Mississippi State, which yes, that might be one of the two or three worst teams in the SEC this year. Still probably going to win four, five, six games in the SEC, you know, which what's that worth if it was in the Big 12 or the Big 10 or something like that. I don't know. So point being, and they were up 30 to 10 in that game and ended up being closer than it was. But like point being,

Starting point is 00:11:29 I think Arizona state's going to end up being a bowl team, at least six wins, seven wins, something like that and playing them on the road and environment you haven't been before is going to make that challenging. You know, when you look at it's called college football insiders, it used to be like college football graphs.

Starting point is 00:11:43 They do really good work and going over some like analytics and efficiencies and stuff obviously this early in the season um schedules are very unbalanced and who's played who like some teams have played a group of five team a mac team and an fcs team some teams have played a top 25 team and a power five team right like unbalanced but in terms of just raw efficiency, like how they have done, regardless of the opponent, Arizona state right now is 12th in raw efficiency in the country. In terms of that, by the way,

Starting point is 00:12:11 UNLV is actually 11th in that same ranking. But Arizona state is, is off to a really good start. Cam Scadabo, one of the best running backs and just kind of all purpose players in the big 12. The quarterback play has been efficient. The defense has been good for them.

Starting point is 00:12:24 So Arizona state's really impressed me. And all of a sudden that turns into a game where, you know, last year you're looking at it. Oh quarterback play has been efficient. The defense has been good for them. So Arizona State's really impressed me. And all of a sudden that turns into a game where, you know, last year you're looking at it, oh, they won three games, like big whoop, you're playing them on the road. Now I'm like, okay, that could be a difficult environment for KU to go into. Number four on the list is at BYU. I toiled with which of these two road games, BYU, Arizona State,

Starting point is 00:12:40 should be higher. You could make the argument based off that stuff that it should be Arizona State that, you know, based on their early look to the season, beating SEC team in Mississippi State. And on top of that, also beating a team who made a bowl game a year before by a billion points, like that, that would be more impressive than what BYU has shown to the schedule at this point but BYU got a nice win against SMU a team who had a lot of hype but I don't know that I'm totally buying into and the thing with BYU is like okay Arizona State won three games last year BYU won five and BYU making the second year in the conference you would expect some. It's also a game that is later in the season, I guess you would say.

Starting point is 00:13:28 It's on the road. It's in a mountain time environment. It's in altitudes. You have some of that stuff that's going for it that I think could make that one definitely difficult for KU. And if not for a couple defensive touchdowns in that game, KU low-key might have lost to BYU at home. I don't think they would have. I think they still would have found a way to win that game.

Starting point is 00:13:51 But they needed two defensive touchdowns to win that game by not a blowout against BYU at home. So that's why I have that one in at number four. Number three on the list is actually one of your upcoming games. It's at West Virginia in your Big 12 opener. I kind of wish this game was later in the season, especially now that you lost to Illinois. Like you could really use winning these next two games because if you win one and lose the other, it's just going to feel like you're kind of jockeying back and forth. And if you had an easier game in week four, you get the three and one to where it feels like you're starting to

Starting point is 00:14:21 build some of that momentum a little bit. Now, maybe they'll just win this game anyway, and then it'll be an even bigger momentum shift. For what it's worth on that same site, like just talking about efficiency this season, overall, West Virginia is 119th, so that doesn't look very good. A big reason why was just the Penn State game, but it'll be a tough game. West Virginia won nine games a year ago. I don't think they're as good this year, but it's still traveling a long ways for a football game against a team who can run the football, against a team who has some experienced players on the offensive end, a team who's got kind of a thunder and lightning approach

Starting point is 00:14:51 at the running back position. And I don't know, maybe at the end of the day, like there were some comments earlier this week from Lance Leipold talking about players pressing and Jalen Daniels pressing a little bit. Maybe that's exactly what Jalen Daniels needs, reekindling of the new era game where they wanted West Virginia to kind of kickstart this whole big thing. Maybe going back there and having some good vibes and positive memories will actually help him. But anyway, I have that one on there as number three. But again, I can make the argument that Arizona State or BYU actually ends up having the same

Starting point is 00:15:21 record or being better than West Virginia. And maybe that one should be moving down the list. The top two, though, for me are kind of clear. Number two on the list is Iowa State. Iowa State really impressed me against Iowa because they got down to a point where I think we're like 19 to seven, where you could have easily just kind of folded. You're playing on the road against Iowa, who always has a good defense. You're down 19 to seven in the second half. And it's like, man, I don't know.

Starting point is 00:15:45 I don't know if they're going to get this done. But Rocco Beck showed me something in year two. They've got those two weapons on the outside. I still have questions about the offensive line a little bit, but we know the defense is good. I mean, they had all sorts of injuries at the linebacker position. Like, they were way down. Like, I mean, super thin at the linebacker position,

Starting point is 00:16:04 down to the guys having to come in and play who were you know um not normally going to play and this defense still looked pretty good against Iowa I was able to run the football a little bit but like you know you still held them to 19 points or whatever it was he hit the long field goal um which we remember the game a couple years ago where they couldn't hit any field goal so like that seems to be improved I think Iowa State is uh actually kind of for real at this point in time and that was a big win for them at Iowa so that one's number two plus you add in the fact that playing an arrowhead they'll probably have some good fan attendance for that game as well that who knows how much of a true home field

Starting point is 00:16:36 environment that'll just be up to the KU fans uh that'll be for Kansas number one the toughest game though it's at Kansas State it's the best you play, and it happens to be on the road. It's an easy pick of why they've beaten you 15 consecutive times. At this point in time, I do think this is, I don't know, maybe I'll put this up for a poll on Twitter. I don't know, maybe not. If I offered you right now, which this would be easier to do because they just lost to Illinois. If I offered you right now a seven and five season for Kansas that included a win over Kansas State, obviously include a a bowl appearance as well would you take that you know let's just go step further eight and five a bowl win Kansas State win would you take that or would you roll the dice I think some people would still roll the dice and say no I think they can still get to you

Starting point is 00:17:18 know nine and three and win a bowl game to have a 10 win season which would be such a big deal or that you know they're still zero and zero in big 12 play. And that's what really matters trying to win the big 12. And that's what I really care about. So I'm going to roll the dice and I don't think there's a right or wrong answer there, but I certainly think that option would be tempting. Maybe I'll ask that again in a week or two and we'll see where we're at.

Starting point is 00:17:37 But yeah, the K state game will certainly be a tough one. All right, let's flash back to that bowl game in the guaranteed rate bowl against UNLV. What happened, what it teaches us for this week's matchup with the Running Rebels. This episode is brought to you by 5-Hour Energy,

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Starting point is 00:19:03 Thank you, The Every Dayers. Tune in to each and every episode episode we're set to have nick schwirt talk a little bit more ku football on this week's episode we're also going to get into a why bryce foster needs to have a big game for ku to perform well against unlv and we'll have our kansas unlv preview later in the week with a fr night game for the Jayhawks. Okay, so flashback to the bowl game, guaranteed rate bowl. Kansas took down UNLV 49-36. It certainly felt like a game that wasn't that close.

Starting point is 00:19:37 It felt like to me a game that Kansas won by three scores. Ended up being two scores, which maybe that scares you a little bit more because it's like, oh, they weren't that far off from what you were able to do. But it was 49 to 30. UNLV scored with less than two minutes left. So realistically, it was kind of more to the first thing. But as Lance Leipold said in his press conference, UNLV is a better team than they were last year. And I fully believe that at this point in time. I don't think the quarterback is quite as good. Jaden Maiva had a good game for them. The quarterback's a better runner than Jaden Maiva, so it's a different type of threat.

Starting point is 00:20:07 Maiva's a better passer. But, like, a lot of the skill players are back. I think the offensive line probably a little bit better than it was a season ago. The defense has been what's been a lot better for UNLV from last season to this season. So I think it's a better team. Now, in theory, I thought KU was going to be a better team than last year, but after losing to Illinois, it's having you kind of question those things.

Starting point is 00:20:27 Again, was that just the anomaly and that's just going to be kind of a one-off this season, or is that who they are? That remains to be seen with these upcoming games and a chance they get to prove that that was the anomaly in a game like this. But Jason being through for 450 yards in that game, he had six scores. He did have three picks though so if you're looking at something to tighten up which by the way it's crazy he's still at a 90 qbr which shows how effective he was even despite the three picks he won bowl game mvp um i guess the lesson

Starting point is 00:20:56 there is that if jaylen still has pick troubles if you're still hitting big plays it could be okay i would rather not live that way though um. Point being, if Jalen can, especially after last week, maybe that causes you to dial it in a little bit more. If Jalen can have a no-interception game, even if you're not getting as much production overall as you got from Jason Bean last year, maybe it makes up for it by not having as many interceptions. But oddly, KU couldn't run the ball in that game. They only averaged 3.6 yards per carry. Neil was at, Devin Neil was at just 3.6 yards per carry in that game. If that continues over into this game, that could be troublesome after seeing what happened to the KU passing attack against Illinois. Now, Luke Graham

Starting point is 00:21:34 went off four catches, 160 yards, three touchdowns. LJ Arnold went off six catches, 132 yards, three touchdowns. Quentin Skinner had two catches for 80 yards. He had the pointing Spider-Man meme. It was awesome. Love to see that happen again in this one, but got to get everybody involved and have that big passing game. The good news for Kansas, it was not good news at the time, although I guess good news for the players, good for them, but you didn't have Dom Poonie or Austin Booker in this game.

Starting point is 00:22:01 So that actually makes it good news for Kansas this year from the standpoint of like, you know, sometimes if you're comparing games to the previous season, you'd be like, yeah, but this year's team doesn't have X good player, which like this team doesn't have Austin Booker and Dom Poonie on the roster. But you can just be like, well, you didn't have them to begin with anyway. And now you have players like Bryce Foster and Logan Brown um and I don't know like Dylan Woodkey or whatever or DJ Warner right like name your player who's on this roster

Starting point is 00:22:33 who wasn't on the bowl roster because that was a more depleted roster with maybe guys transferring out or guys opting out or whatever it ended up being so uh that would be a positive for KU. And I guess you look at it like Jaden Maieva had 291 in the air, 8.3 yards per attempt. He had three scores, but I'll be at two picks. Again, if you can stop the quarterback run, which is tough to do, because this guy's like a Colin Klein, basically, then you're going to feel better about your passing situations in this one. Jacob DeJesus and Ricky White were awesome. They had a combined 21 touches for basically 230 yards and two touchdowns in that game. So can you figure out a way to kind of slow them down?

Starting point is 00:23:15 But really, like looking back at it, the biggest reason why this ended up being a 13-point game and maybe not more besides the late touchdown, Kansas had a whopping 18 penalties for 216 yards. And a lot of those were like, it was just getting out of hand. It was just ridiculous what was kind of going on and the officials were doing. Like even if Kansas is a highly penalized game in this game, it'll probably be closer to like 120 or a hundred penalty yards. And if they have a normal penalty game, then it'll be closer to like 40 to 60 range.

Starting point is 00:23:46 So that, I mean, that's 150 yard difference, right? Because KU out-yarded UNLV by over 200 yards in this game. So again, I think the score was not quite indicative of how much better KU was in the game. But guess what? Here's the problem. That was the same way I felt about the Illinois game. Because last year, Kansas won that Illinois game by 11,

Starting point is 00:24:06 and it felt like they should have won by more. You could argue, okay, you should have won the bowl game by more, but guess what? You just lost to Illinois. Now, the good news, this one's at home. That one was on the road in Illinois, right? And a lot of weird things happen. And yes, weird things can happen again,

Starting point is 00:24:18 but will they happen in back-to-back weeks? Definitely possible, but it lowers the likelihood, right? So I think there's some teachable things that we'll take into our preview later this week and some more talk about KUUNLV. So make sure you're subscribed to the show anywhere you get your podcasts. That'll do it for this episode of LOJ. We'll see you next time on the show.

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Ranking Kansas Jayhawks Football's 10 Remaining Games + Guaranteed Rate Bowl Flashback vs UNLV

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