Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Re-Evaluating the Kansas Jayhawks Football Opponents on the 2024 Schedule After Week 1 Overreactions

Starting point is 00:00:00 On today's Locked On Jayhawks, overreacting to what happened in week one as it pertains to KU football's opponents and the rest of the season's schedule. You are Locked On Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. I'm Derek Johnson. You can find me on Twitter at DJohnsonRadio, and you can find the show called Locked On Jayhawks anywhere you get your podcasts, including on our YouTube page

Starting point is 00:00:35 where you can like and subscribe to the show. Thank you for making it your first listen every day. Thank you to every dayers catching each and every show. On today's edition of the show, we're going to overreact to what happened in week one is KU football schedule easier is it harder or is it about the same from where it was from maybe we were considering it before week one because you know some of these things are going to be overreactions but some of them might be true like Florida State looks obviously KU doesn't play Florida State looks horrible so if Florida State would have been on KU's schedule all of a sudden that would have gone from like a,

Starting point is 00:01:07 oh no, that's going to be a really tough game to win, to like, yeah, they should win that game, right? Those are the sort of things, even if they might be a little crazy, that you can overreact to in week one. So we'll get into that. Also a little bit of an update on some other of the fall sports with KU Volleyball and KU Soccer coming up at the end of the show with volleyball ranked in the top 15 right now. This episode is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. Now through September 22nd, all FanDuel customers can bet $5 and get a three-week free trial of NFL Sunday ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV.

Starting point is 00:01:35 Visit FanDuel.com to get started today. All right, so let's take this one by one as we go through the KU football schedule, how they did in week one, and how that pertains to kind of our thoughts about that game for KU and the opponent and just how good they are. The first one is this game upcoming against Illinois and stick around on Friday. We'll have a KU Illinois preview. We'll also have a postcast after the game this weekend. So make sure you subscribe to the show, but Illinois played Eastern Illinois and you look at it, Eastern Illinois, not a great FCS team either. ESPN SP Plus has Eastern Illinois 64th among like 130 FCS teams. Lindenwood, for what it's worth, is 110th. So you could argue that Illinois and Kansas both beat their FCS opponents by 45,

Starting point is 00:02:20 but Illinois was a little bit better. But like you can't play that, that comparison game and Kansas benched their starters at halftime basically. Right. So it's really hard to say like how this affected them. And for some of the teams that only played FCS opponents, it's going to be hard to say to have that overreaction. Most of the overreactions you can have after week one are teams that played another good team or played a power five team or, or something that gives a little bit more context than playing in middle of the pack FCS team.

Starting point is 00:02:48 But I will say this, the thing about Illinois is their running game did look really good in the Eastern Illinois game. Luke Altmyer had five incompletions. He had four touchdown passes. So he was really efficient and those can be scary for the offense. But I think also what's important to look at here is the negatives and like Illinois only registered one sack they only registered three tackles for loss defensively so something we talked about the other day is how good is this Illinois front four going to be how

Starting point is 00:03:16 good is the d-line well they didn't cause a lot of pressure against eastern Illinois and they did hold them to 2.2 yards per carry so so maybe they were effective in a different way. But I don't know. In one end, like, I think I'm worried more about the Illinois running game this year than I was last season, but also maybe, like, the defensive line is worse this year than it was a season ago. So I think that would be the overreaction to week one there.

Starting point is 00:03:40 I think the bigger overreaction would be to KU's week three opponent. That would be UNLV, because UNLV went into Houston and just basically smashed them. I mean, I guess a 20 point win isn't like demolishing, but I think it was 27, nothing at one point, like they were in control of that whole game. It's entirely possible looking at that result that Houston is just really bad. Like there are some preseason publications that picked Houston to be the worst team in the big 12. And so yes, it's still a good win for a Mountain West school if they're going to the worst team in the Big 12 and winning by 20 points. That is still a nice win for them. But this might not be as big of a deal as you think. But even what stood out to me,

Starting point is 00:04:18 even if Houston does end up being really bad, beyond winning by 20 points on the road, I think more poignantly they only gave up seven points because what do we remember from UNLV a season ago it's that they had one of the most explosive one of the best offenses in the country a season ago I don't know that would be a little hyperbolic but they had a really good offense okay the defense was not very good like you look at ESPN SB plus this was a a good offense it was a bad defense a season ago, but their head coach, Barry Odom, former defensive coordinator, defensive guy, you figured, you know, maybe the defense would kind of come along a little bit. Well, in this game, you want to be his offense

Starting point is 00:04:55 wasn't that impressive, but the defense was really good. So I don't know where you go with that because you look at the offense, they return a lot. So with all the guys, they return and all these stud skill players, they return. You can almost view it as saying okay we we think the offense is going to be good the fact that their defense showed out like this does that mean they're a complete team this year does that mean they are a a group of five uh contender like they could end up being the best group of five team and end up making the college football playoff because they win the mountain west and go 11 and 1 or 10 and 2 and a ranked, you know, 22nd in the country. They're the highest ranked group of five team. And they get the 12 seed in the college football playoff. Like that doesn't seem like that crazy.

Starting point is 00:05:33 So the defense looking really good was kind of the big takeaway for me here. Now you could also negatively overreact to their first game and just say, okay, Houston is like a really, really bad team. It's not a big deal. And UNLV lost Jaden Maieva to USC and their quarterbacks who were in the game with seven of 14 for 113 yards. And I think one of those passes was a trick play that got 40 yards. I think realistically their quarterback was like six of 13 for like 71 yards in the opener against not a great Houston secondary.

Starting point is 00:06:03 So maybe the offense isn't, maybe the defense is better, but maybe the offense is way worse, right? So I do think on paper though, I view this UNLV game as a little bit more dangerous now. I do think I view UNLV as being a little bit better than they were a season ago, but Kansas might also be a little better than they were a season ago. And they get this one at home as opposed to on a neutral site at a bowl game. What about West Virginia in week three?

Starting point is 00:06:24 Well, they played Penn State. They're a top-ten team they played against. So Penn State could end up being elite with adding Andy Konolicki to what they've already been. And so at the end of the day, if West Virginia lost by 22 to Penn State and Penn State ends up being a top-five or six team in the country, that's not that bad of a loss. It's really not.

Starting point is 00:06:42 I do think it's interesting. Something they brought up on the broadcast that I thought a lot about and I forget if this was one of the pre-game shows or uh on the actual broadcast itself but the idea that West Virginia um was pretty much a like it was a little bit of a simple offense a season ago but it worked it was like simplicity to a good like there's nothing wrong with that but it was running the football it was read options it was quarterback run game it was screen passes and it was you the football. It was read options. It was quarterback run game. It was screen passes. And it was, you know, like deep balls, uh, occasionally here or there to, to keep the pressure off him. But there wasn't a lot of the consistency in the intermediate and short passing game. And I think you saw that a little bit in

Starting point is 00:07:15 this game, Garrett green at a 37 QBR. So I wonder if with a full season of scouting against them, uh, if the offense can take a step back plus the tougher schedule this year compared to last year. But I think what my big takeaway from this game was, Andy Cole, like he runs a similar offense to what Kansas is going to run in this game. Drew Aller had a 98 QBR. He was, you know, the stats look really good as a freshman, and it was a freshman season, but you see him in the big games, and like it was not very good in those games.

Starting point is 00:07:41 So a 98 QBR for Drew Aller. They had 222 rushing yards. I feel better about the Kansas offense in this game and maybe better about Kansas overall in this game, but it's still a West Virginia team that could make a bowl game and playing on the road that far away, it still becomes kind of a tricky game. TCU, they played Stanford on, I think it was a Thursday night to open up the season.

Starting point is 00:08:03 I don't think Stanford's a very good team. They're probably like a three to four win teams. The fact that TCU had to struggle with them, they were down at halftime. The fact that it was, I think, a three-point game at the end of the third quarter that they won by seven. I don't know that this is the big thing that TCU was looking for.

Starting point is 00:08:18 It was on the road, but it was like a half-filled stadium. I do think TCU is better than they were a season ago, but I was thinking maybe TCU could bounce up to eight or nine wins this year. And after watching this game, if we're overreacting, it might be more of like a six or seven win season for TCU. They did hold Stanford to negative yards in the third quarter. I actually was impressed with the defense for TCU. I mean, they still gave them 27 to Stanford, but on the first drive, they had like three personal fouls or four personal fouls that if that doesn't happen, there's one less touchdown there. So anyway, they held the QB to a 12 QBR.

Starting point is 00:08:49 I think if the defense is better, which it looks like it is, I really like their receivers. I don't know that I trust their running game. I think Hoover can sling it around a bit. I think they're a dangerous team. They're a dangerous six or seven win team that will be better than they were a season ago. But I, after one week, I'm not ready to say they're one of those, you know, top 15 TCU teams that it feels like they rotate every two or three years. Like they have a bad year, then they have like a top 10 season or something like that. Then we'll get to Arizona State for the last one here before we take a quick timeout. I think the stock is definitely up for Arizona State after their week one performance.

Starting point is 00:09:21 I thought Wyoming was going to be a strong Mountain West team because they just have been. They've been so consistent the last handful of years, but now their head coach, Craig Bull, retired at the end of last season. And so you wondered if they could keep it going or not. I don't know if that had something to do with it. I don't know if it was just Arizona State that good. Wyoming's quarterback, Evan Savoboda, he went six of 15 for 42 yards and two interceptions with negative 30 rushing yards. He had 12 total yards with a 3.7 QBR. They held Wyoming to 1.7 yards per carry and they ran for almost two 50 themselves. They had three sacks, the two picks, pick six, their QB was efficient. So stocks going up for Arizona state,

Starting point is 00:09:57 but is the stock going up for me in a two or three win team to be in a four win team is going up to be in a six or seven win team that remains to be seen. We're going to learn more about them this week. They have Mississippi State, and that should be a good barometer of like a Mississippi State team who could win, I don't know, four to six games in the SEC this year. But if you're beating that in the Big 12, that probably means you could be a six or seven-win team.

Starting point is 00:10:17 So I think that'll be a better test there. But that was a good first passing for Arizona State, that that game might be harder than we first envisioned when the schedule came out. All right, let's get to the rest of the schedule. Week one overreactions to that on this episode of Locked on Jayhawks. We are brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. You've heard us talk a lot about FanDuel, America's number one sportsbook.

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Starting point is 00:11:41 All right, so let's get to the back half of the schedule as it pertains to what happened in week one and overreacting to what happened for how it affects KU's schedule. Versus Houston, all of a sudden that game, does that become KU's most winnable game remaining? A home game against Houston? They lost by 20 points to UNLV. It's a home game.

Starting point is 00:11:58 It's in Arrowhead. I can't imagine they're going to bring a lot of like visiting fans like Iowa State and Colorado possibly could to the game in Arrowhead. I don't know what else is in the discussion for the easiest game quote-unquote for uh KU football the rest of the season I think it's Houston hands down now I say all that and obviously I continue to believe Willie Fritz is a great head coach the underdog factor there now it's even easier to overlook this game you still can't overlook it but I do think if you're power ranking them this is probably the easiest.

Starting point is 00:12:26 But I mean, you look at Donovan Smith, like the former transfer from Texas Tech, he was supposed to be in year two in the system. I guess not the same system, which is new coach. He had a 3.9 QBR. They're stud running back Parker Jenkins. I don't know if he got hurt because he only had two carries. It's like, what's up with that?

Starting point is 00:12:40 You don't know if he had five sacks and 10 TFLs. This Houston offensive line gonna be really bad. So, okay, you should be able to dominate that one. And that could be good. But also, other reason that that game could be closer than you expect is the look-ahead factor. You have that K-State the next game, and that can certainly happen there. So I know what people want me to say here, that K-State was,

Starting point is 00:13:00 it was what, like 20-6 or something, midway through the third, something like that, of the UT Martin game, and that there was a point where K state was not looking all that great. And that Avery Johnson was not looking all that great. And Avery Johnson only finished with a 39.5 QBR. So it was not a good game for him. Um, if it continued, I, I'm not ready to go down the overreaction of like, let's watch each and every throw in this FCS game and be like, oh, you're good. You're bad, right? If it continues, if Avery Johnson continues to put up 40 QBRs in the next couple of weeks, then yes, I think that will continue to be a thing and be a conversation. But they averaged over nine yards per carries in offense.

Starting point is 00:13:34 They won by 35. It was a decent FCS opponent. We're going to learn more about K-State this week at Tulane and then the next week versus Arizona that I don't need to overreact to what happened in the FCS game. It was just an FCS game and they probably didn't want to put a lot on tape for those games since they have a pretty tough next two weeks and that'll teach us more about K-State with Tulane and Arizona what about Iowa State Iowa State played North Dakota and you know I don't know what it is I feel like Iowa State plays an FCS team every year usually it's like northern

Starting point is 00:14:01 Iowa and it's always like way closer than you would expect. And it's like 17 to 10 or something like that. You can't blow these teams out. That was the case here. 21 to three, North Dakota was solid. I think they won seven games in the FCS, but not like an elite FCS team. The defense is probably going to be great once again. It's kind of what this reinforces me, but here's the thing. So I have kind of been on this, this, I don't know, not anti. I continue to think Iowa State's a good football team. I think they'll win six, seven, or eight games this year.

Starting point is 00:14:29 And I continue to think that after this game. My thought has not changed on Iowa State. But there was some of this hype, and I love Phil Steele to death, but he came on here and has them as his dark horse to possibly win the league and stuff like that. I just don't see it. And some of these preseason publications, because they bring back their starting offensive line, peg them as a top five offensive line.

Starting point is 00:14:47 But it's like, in my money, they weren't maybe even a top half offensive line in the Big 12 a season ago. So you might be improving from a season ago, but what are you improving to? They only averaged 3.9 yards per carry against North Dakota. So I think they're a good team. They could beat KU. They'll bring a lot of fans to that game. But I think they're closer to being like a 6-7-8 win team

Starting point is 00:15:05 than they are a true Big 12 title contender. Okay, what about the game at BYU? They played Southern Illinois. That was an 8-win FCS team from the Missouri Valley, so that's a good FCS team. Again, I don't know for some of these FCS teams how much they bring back, though, but BYU still couldn't run the ball.

Starting point is 00:15:20 That was a problem for BYU last year, which was weird because you look at every other year leading up to that, and maybe shout out Jeff Grimes that he helped them do that they were like a good running team they were a power running team last year they could not run the football and they weren't able to run the football in this FCS game so I think that's a little bit scary there they got good efficient QB play which was good the past defense was strong but I feel kind of the same way about BYU that I feel about like K-State where it's like, let's learn more this week at SMU. And then they play at Wyoming after that, which will be a good cross-reference to Arizona State to be like, which team is kind of better?

Starting point is 00:15:54 And especially since you play both on the road and they're both in either the Mountain or West Coast time zone. Colorado. I think Colorado is the same team as last year, which, I mean, that's a team that can sneak up and beat you, right? I mean, they beat TCU in the Big 12 a season ago. They almost beat USC a season ago. But also they do have serious flaws because I watched that North Dakota State game and North Dakota State's a good team. So it is what it is. But like I'm sitting there watching it. I'm like, this is exactly Colorado last year. It's Shader Sanders is going to make some incredible plays at the quarterback position where he's bobbing and weaving in the pocket, throwing downfield, finding open guys, making these huge highlight chunk plays. That's going to continue to happen.

Starting point is 00:16:35 You're going to get some receivers making great plays downfield. Travis Hunter, you know, blowing by guys. Those are things that happened last year. They're happening this year. Didn't really do great running the football. Offensive line struggle. I know they only gave up. I think it was one sack, but like you watch that game shooter Sanders is like constantly evading pressure. Right. And then you look at the defense and the defense was, you know, having some issues there.

Starting point is 00:16:57 They did better in the second half. And I do think their defensive line, their pass rush specifically is better than a season ago. So I do think they're a little bit better than a season ago. I have them as a bowl team, but like, they're pretty much the same is better than a season ago so I do think they're a little bit better than a season ago I have them as a bowl team but like they're pretty much the same style they were a season ago that's I guess my overreaction there and then uh the Baylor game to finish off another one that tough to learn from they played Tarleton State that was an eight and three FCS team so good on Baylor to win 42 by 42 um but if you're starting quarterbacks Daquan Finn you don't want to see him throw two picks in the FCS game. You don't want to see Baylor only average 3.8 yards per carry on the ground. But with Dave Aranda focusing more on the defensive end of the football that kind of got him to be a hot coaching hire to begin with,

Starting point is 00:17:34 you held Tarleton State to just 181 yards. So maybe Baylor ends up being a team that is better than a season ago just because the defense is better, but maybe the offense doesn't end up being that much better. But another team that we're going to learn more about because they're at Utah this week, which I think is technically a non-conference game, even though they're now Big 12 opponents just because it was previously scheduled that way. If they lose by 10 points, I think that's a good thing for how good Baylor could possibly be.

Starting point is 00:17:56 But if you get blown out or I don't know if you win the game, all of a sudden we're going to be talking, is Baylor a Big 12 title contender, right? So I think some interesting ways that that can go. All right, we're going to finish up here. KU Volleyball has a top 15 team. Let's talk about that next on Locked on Jayhawks. This episode of Locked on Jayhawks is brought to you by LinkedIn Jobs. When you're hiring for small businesses, you want to find quality professionals that are

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Starting point is 00:18:55 That is linkedin.com slash lockedoncollege. Post your job for free. Terms and conditions apply. We'll have a KU preview against Illinois on tomorrow's episode. Get into the matchups of the game and some pick a prop, all that sort of stuff on tomorrow's episode of the show. And then on either late Saturday night, early Sunday morning, we'll have our postcast for the KU Illinois game.

Starting point is 00:19:18 So make sure catching all that subscribe to the show. Well, KU volleyball is ranked in the top 15 meanwhile. So that's pretty cool. And Ray Bouchard continues to do great things for KU there. 3-0 start for them. They won nine of ten sets in matches against South Carolina, Duke, and Colgate over the weekend. They were 13th in the preseason, stay 13th.

Starting point is 00:19:36 It's a really good team. So you have the core of these players who have been back. Like Cameron Turner is one of the best setters in the country. You got players that you can go all around to it. Caroline Bien has kind of went from being an outside hitter to being an outside hitter who's playing a lot in the back to this year getting more swings again. Ana Banjo, Elnati, Davis, like those three players

Starting point is 00:19:55 are swinging lights out right now early on in the season. You got some newcomers coming in, a 6'4 freshman middle blocker in Zoe Burgess, and then Aisha Alono looked really good in the first weekend, possible breakout player there. This is a really talented team that I think the hope is they can have that good season. I mean, they're the preseason pick to win the Big 12 and can be hosting in the NCAA tournament,

Starting point is 00:20:16 just like they did a season ago, but then take that a step further and make it to the second weekend of the tournament in addition to that. And hopefully you end up with a high enough seed that you avoid that Penn State matchup in the second round. But they get Wichita State or did earlier this week as well. And then upcoming, they go to the Marquette tournament where they get at number 24 Marquette. So that'll be this weekend. Certainly one to watch there. And then other fall sports, KU soccer, they're off to a two win, one loss, two draw start for the Nate Lee era. Taking on Vanderbilt tonight before returning home

Starting point is 00:20:48 to kick off Big 12 play against Iowa State on Thursday, September 12th. That'll be over at Rock Chalk Park. That'll do it for this episode of Locked on Jayhawks. You can find our show anywhere you get your podcasts, including on our YouTube page. KU Illinois preview tomorrow. See you then.

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Re-Evaluating the Kansas Jayhawks Football Opponents on the 2024 Schedule After Week 1 Overreactions

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