Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - REVELATION: Why Kansas Can't Close Games, When it Started & 4th Down Aggression Under Lance Leipold

Episode Date: November 13, 2025

Kansas Jayhawks' late-game struggles spark debate over strategy and execution. Are conservative play calls and missed fourth-down opportunities costing Lance Leipold’s squad victories when it matters most?Derek Johnson uncovers key stats behind KU football’s recent woes, connecting cautious offensive decisions to pivotal moments dating back to the dramatic 2021 Texas win. The analysis spotlights Jalon Daniels, Devin Neal, and the team's surprising shift in fourth-down aggressiveness, asking whether a reversion to the mean—and missed chances to put games away—has doomed the Jayhawks. Plus, get the latest on Tyran Stokes’ recruiting saga, KU soccer’s NCAA tournament hosting bid, and updates on KU women’s volleyball as postseason hopes heat up.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!DoorDashWith DoorDash Streaks, you save every Saturday you order — stack it up all season and you could save up to $250. Order this Saturday. Keep the streak alive. Fuel your gameday — only with DoorDash. Terms apply. Promo period through 11/18.SupplyHouseJoin the free TradeMaster program today and score serious perks like priority shipping, lower prices, and a dedicated support line. Visit SupplyHouse.com to sign up for free and use promo code SHCOLLEGE5 for 5% off your first order. GametimeToday's episode is brought to you by Gametime. Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONCOLLEGE for $20 off your first purchase. Terms and conditions apply.FanDuelToday's episode is brought to you by FanDuel. Football season is around the corner, visit the FanDuel App today and start planning your futures bets now.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

I figured it out. I figured out why Kansas is struggling late in games and when it all started. The answer might surprise you. You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. What's going on, Derek Johnson here? This is Locked on Jayhawks. Thanks for making it your first listen every day, and thank you to every dayers catching each and every episode of the show.

On today's edition of Lockdown Jayhawks, we are discussing KU football's late game struggles. I took kind of a deep dive in what's going on, and I kind of boil it down to what is the issue here. And when did this all start? The answer might actually go back to one of KU's biggest wins in the Lance Leipold era. We're also going to take a look at just fourth downs in general, where KU is ranked under Lance Lippel.

where they're ranking right now, should they be more aggressive? And then we'll get into some of the latest news on today's episode of the show. Let's start right there, though. So the numbers would say for KU at this point in time that they have not done a good job closing out games, I think, on the offensive side of the football. Obviously, we think of all the defensive times that they have given up points at end of games. And that is absolutely true. But at the end of the day, if you in there, which I view it this way too,

is Kansas a better offensive or defensive football team? Every year in the Lance Leipold era, the answer would be offensive. Maybe 2021, I don't know what you would say there, but every year it has been offensive. So therefore, yes, there are certain problems with the defense, late in games and making stops, but wouldn't you want to ride, like if you have to pick between one of the two, hey, we can either try to win this game on offense or we can win this game on defense, wouldn't you therefore say, I want to pick the offense more offensive? and then the defense.

Well, unfortunately, what I've found in these situations where KU has an opportunity to put games away with their offense, they're not being aggressive, they're not doing it, they're not accomplishing it, and I don't know, does it go, they're not going forward enough on fourth down, maybe, like, maybe it goes back to this 2021 Texas game. So here's a little, I posted this on my substack, which very rarely post stuff on there, but it basically is just something that shows all the different games. The criteria that I released here is games that KU was up one score, right? So not when they're trailing, not when they're tied, when they're up one score,

when they are trying to put the game away, which was the situation this past weekend when they couldn't hold off Arizona, when they're up by one score with 10 minutes or less to go in the game. And I think there was one where it was like 1018 or something like that. so I counted it. But basically what happens here is during the Lance Light Poldera, there have been 22 possessions for KU football where their offense has started with the ball leading by one score with an opportunity, basically what that means is saying if you're leading by one score, you get the ball back with 10 minutes or less to go.

If you have a long drive, right? If you get the ball back nine minutes, you have a six-minute drive that leads to three points, you're making it a two-score game with three minutes to go. You're basically winning your team the game, barring some crazy miracle. if you get the ball back with five minutes to go, right, and you're up by one score and you run the rest of the clock out. You finished off the game. You won the game for your team. If you get the ball back with five minutes to go and you score with two minutes to go, right?

So basically what you're trying to go for when in these situations, you want to either score or run the clock out. Well, you total it up between 2021 through 2025. There have been 22 such possessions for Lance Leipold and KU where they have had the football leading. by a score with 10.5 minutes or less in a game. And they have only scored on five of the, or they've only scored on four of the possessions, three touchdowns and a field goal. And they only have one occasion where they've ran the clock out. That was the game in Ames against Iowa State. Now, here's the super interesting part with all this. If you look at the record, KU was actually 11 and 4. There's an error there. KU was actually 11 and 4 in such.

situations in such games. There are some games where, you know, they had multiple opportunities to put it away late, and they either did or did not. But if you look back to 2021 through 23, the first couple of years of Lance Leipoldera, KU was 9 and 1 in such situations. And it's not like they were having success. They had 14 possessions between 2021 through 2023, and 10 of them resulted in stopped drives. They only grabbed 18 first downs. They had five punts. They had two turnovers. They only scored 17 points. They only averaged 2.9 yards per carry running the ball 54 times compared to 13 throws. Yet they went 9 and 1, which almost makes me think, were they lucky to win a lot of those games? And then you start thinking back to, say, the 20-22 season.

You think back to the Iowa State game where you had multiple tries up 14 to 11 to try to put it away and you could not. It took Iowa State luckily missing some field goals and honestly not good game management from Matt Campbell there. You think of the Duke game. Kansas had an opportunity to put it away at 35, 27, could not Duke got all the way down to like the Kansas 30. You think of the West Virginia game. Kansas was up 42, 34 at the ball, couldn't do anything with it. West Virginia goes down and sends us to overtime and Kansas ends up winning in overtime.

But if even one of those goes the other way because you couldn't hold on the lead, you don't make a bowl game in that year. And so I just wonder, like, are we seen a bit of a reversion to the mean? Is last year and this year, are they reversions to the mean? mean of that in the first three years in Leipold era, they were a little bit lucky to have the record they did when they weren't able to basically step on the opponent's throat, when they weren't able to step on the opponent's neck, when they had the ball in offense leading by a score to try to put the game away. They weren't putting it away on offensively.

And so they were relying on the defense and they won a bunch of those games. And now they're losing every time that those situations happen. Is it a bit of a reversion to the mean? That is entirely possible here. So I do find this very interesting. Now, one of the other things that I think certainly sticks out to me on this is that KU should be passing the football more like, okay, you look at the total numbers, which if you're watching on YouTube, this is off to the right. So right now, KU, in those situations, those 22 possessions where they've had the ball with 10 minutes or less to go with a one score lead, they have ran the ball 80.6% of the time. They've only thrown the ball 19.4% of time. And I get it. The running number

should be up when you're leading late in games. But should it be that heavy of a difference? Especially when you see a lot of these, if you go back and look at a lot of these drives, they're like times or third and eight, KU's running the football or something. It's like play to win the game in a real way. And here's the other thing. During that span, Kansas is only averaging 3.4 yards per run. They're averaging 12.6 yards per pass in those situations.

So like they're actually having a lot of success throwing the football, but they've just decided to be way too conservative and just run it way too much. And it's overall led to KU having 10 punts in such situations. That's 46% of those possessions compared to just 25 first downs, barely over one first down per drive. They've had 77% of their drive stopped. Again, that feels like a high number. Only five of the 22 drives have resulted in either points or running things out. So that's certainly something that I would kind of take away of like, I think when you look at the aggressiveness, like there are certain situations where it's third and long or it's third and short, third and medium where you're,

just basically saying, hey, you know, we don't care. We're just going to run the football anyway. I think they should be passing a little bit more in those situations. Now, something that I find interesting is where did this all start? Because I was going back. And again, you can find this. It's called Jayhawks Overflow is my substack, Derek Johnson, on there. And I'll try to maybe put a link in the YouTube description or something like that.

But you could make an argument. This all goes back to that 2021. in Texas game. Because Kansas wins the game in Austin. And here's what's interesting, like a little sneak preview in our second segment. Kansas was actually second in the big 12 in fourth down attempts in the first year of the Lance Light Poldera. They've not ranked that way the next year since. And they win that game in Texas, but there was a moment there where they almost did not win the game. Here's the situation. So Kansas has a 49 to 42 lead on Texas with 439 to go in Austin. him. They get the ball, two-yard passing completion from Jalen Daniels to Kwamey Lasseter,

zero-yard run by Devin Neal, and then a seven-yard completion from Jayland Daniels to Devon Neal. It's fourth and one. You have one win on the season, none against power opponents. You're playing on the road against Texas. Jaylin or Lance Lightbold comes out and says, yeah, we are going to risk it. I think a lot of fans right now would be like, oh, there's no way he went for that. He did. He went for it in that situation. Now, does that tell you that it was a, I don't like point being he goes for the fourth and one at his own end of the field and it's a zero yard run by jalen daniels he gets stuffed texas takes over the football and so actually the the kansas defense um got an interception off texas and k u got a second try in that game to put it away they could

not they ended up punting and then texas sends it to overtime and you know from the the rest of history with with devon neal touchdown and then jared case on the two-point conversion but um i can't help but Did that situation sway Lance Leipold where he, in the moment when I was too aggressive there? Like, if he converts that, does he continue to be super aggressive there? Because he didn't convert it and he felt like they almost lost the game afterwards, did that change his aggression in these late game situations? I think it's very interesting. Let's talk more about those fourth down attempts and what more of this data kind of tells us.

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KU has not been successful offensively. And again, this is kind of what I go back to here, right? The idea that while the defense is, you know, deserve some blame here too. There have been too many times where they've given up the late score. And even in games where the defense has played well, then like the Arizona game, we give up a late score. At the end of the day, I keep coming back to the idea that you have an opportunity on offense to step on their throat.

And it is crazy college football. And you are a better offensive team than a defensive team. Every year of the Lance Leipoldera. So go win it. with your offense, and it just hasn't happened to this point in time. So where does KU rank under Lance Leipold in terms of fourth down attempts? Now, I don't know, there probably is a better way of looking at some of these numbers just from a standpoint of like, you know, if you're a really good team, you're probably not getting in as many fourth down situations. I don't

know, but there is at least a little bit of validity to it. And so I mentioned that in 2021, Kansas was actually second in the big 12 in fourth down attempts and it's just like where did that go they were saying it was a 10 team league at the time where did that go was that just because it it felt like you were playing with house money right it was really year zero with when the staff took over um was it just kind of like roll the dice and try to instill a winning mentality in some way why has that not carried over at all for k u because then what happens in 2022 Kansas finishes ninth of 10 teams in the big 12 in 4 down attempts. So Kansas goes from attempting 30 in 2021, which again was second to in 2022, they attempt just 19. Now, you look at in 2021, they only converted 37% of them.

So was part of it just, you know, again, like you had some of those failures on going for it. My argument would be that just wasn't a very good team. They were two and 10. They were still trying to figure themselves out, at least until later in the season when they started to, you know, be a competent team. And obviously the fourth down percentage is going to be lower. But I like the process and going for it to set you up.

And then you have a better offense the next year and you convert 47% of your fourth downs, but you only go for it 19 times, which again was 19th. Texas Tech went for 52 times that year. So if you doubled KU's fourth down attempts, you'd still be 14 short of what Texas Tech did. Then you go to 2023. Kansas was 13th of 14 teams in the Big 12 on fourth down times. Now, they weren't very good on them. only 37%, but they only attempted 19 of them again.

Baylor led the league of 48. So again, more than double of what KU was. So are we starting to get to part of this too where it's like not only are you not going for it on fourth down? You don't have good play designs on fourth down. Like is that part of this too? Because the conversion percentage isn't great there either. And then you get to 2024, which was last year.

Kansas finishes last in the Big 12 and fourth down attempts. They attempted 15 of them. Now that year they actually were good at them. 67%, which I think, I mean, no, it didn't leave. Iowa State was at 80%. There's a couple others in the 70s, but Kansas was last in the big 12th and fourth down attempts last year, despite the fact that they started the year two and six. And again, it should have been, you know, I don't know, balls of the wall for lack of a

better term, they only ended up with 15 fourth down attempts despite going 67% on them. So that would be an opposite to the, you know, to the other side of like, oh, they actually have been able to find, you know, some success on some of these. fourth downs. And I would also say like fourth down percentage can be a little fickle year to year because it is going to be a smaller sample size, right? You think about like you might have 10, 15, 20 third down attempts in a game. You might have what we've seen from Kansas the past few years, that many attempts in an entire season. So like it is going to be a little, you know, not sticky super. So that would all be crazy. Now, you might think that Kansas ranks really low this year in fourth down attempts.

That would actually not be true. Kansas so far this season ranks, fifth in the big 12 in fourth down attempts they've attempted 25 of them they've been really good at them 64% this has been actually kU's best year in terms of mixing together attempting fourth downs and converting fourth downs and so i do think you know they at least deserve a little bit of credit for that that are they evolving in some way and getting to that point at the same point in time that might make even more frustrated they didn't go for that fourth down at Arizona or really the last two right, the one at the beginning of the fourth quarter, and then the one that could have potentially kind of sealed you the game there.

Obviously, again, we know the Jalen Daniels injury thing. I think I agree with the people who would say, well, then run it with Isaiah Marshall because he's doing a really good job running the football to run it with Daniel Highshaw or something, do a tush push with somebody else in a quarterback, like I'd be fine with any of those things, but I also really would have wanted to go for it at the start of the fourth quarter there on that like fourth and four, where instead you take a delay game and punt at the start of the quarter. Point being, I guess like it feels like those stats would make me think shouldn't you be even more inclined to do those things. But overall, so if we total it up in the

Lance Leipoldera case since 2021, Kansas, if you, because we have obviously Oklahoma and Texas who are in the league for two years there, and then we have Arizona, Arizona State, BYU, like Houston that are not in the league until 2023. So it's going to be incongruent if we just look at total fourth downs attempted. If we look at fourth down attempted per game during that time, KU ranks 14th of the 16 teams who have been in the Big 12 since 2021 in terms of fourth down attempts per game, just 14th. And again, it goes back to the idea that you have a better offense than a defense.

you have had good quarterback play with Jason Bean and Jalen Daniels. I mean, you've had some really good running games even. Like that would make you think, okay, Devon Neal, fourth down, boom, you know. And I think that was part of their successes last year. And now you're looking at back-to-back years where you're over 60% on fourth downs. So I think everything kind of adds up to me that like you should be aggressive on fourth downs. I am, I am, I don't know, pleasantly surprised that they are in the top five right now in fourth down attempts. But it still feels like that you're missing out, at least in the key.

opportunities, the key moments of the game to kind of make those decisions. And I can't help but go back to that Texas game back in 2021 and just wonder if that, you know, poisoned the mind with certain things, so to speak. So I don't know, just kind of interesting data. And again, I'll post that link on our YouTube page that you can kind of check it out and see for yourself. And it details every single one of those situations. And you can kind of take a look at that. All right, let's finish up with some latest news, Tyrant Stokes, National Signing Day, KU. soccer hosting in the NCAA tournament, all that and more. Today's episode of Locked on Jayhawks is brought to you by Supply House.

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Join the free Trademaster program today and score serious perks like priority shipping, lower prices, and a dedicated support line. Visit Supplyhouse.com to sign up for free and use promo code SH College 5 for 5% off your first order. That is supplyhouse.com, real people, real service with Supplyhouse. Thanks to joining us on this episode of the show. Again, thank you for making locked on the top sports podcast network. And you can find our show anywhere to get your podcast, including on our YouTube page. It was National Signing Day for college basketball and KU was able to sign their guys, sign their commits.

And it is interesting. Like, is this even a necessary thing anymore in general, the National Signing Day? If players can just transfer anywhere, like, why does it matter? I guess is my point. Like, it doesn't actually lock the kid in. Like, for instance, Keon Burnett transferred to KU in the winter. So he would have had to sign a national letter of intent because he actually enrolled at KU and played spring ball with KU.

And then he transferred back to Arizona before the summer. So, like, what is signing day actually? You know, if a kid, if a kid, LeBaron Phelon, LaBaron Phelon was committed to KU. I would imagine he would have signed on signing day with KU, right? And then he ends up going to Alabama. Like, a kid can just ask out of his national. letter of intent. If not, he'll just transfer, because it's a free transfer. So it doesn't matter. So I don't know. Like, does this matter? Does it make it just a little bit more official, I guess? I don't know.

But yeah, I guess good news for KU that, you know, you get them signed. What is going on with Tyrant Stokes? So Tyrant Stokes, number one recruit in the class of 2026 has Kansas, Kentucky, and Oregon in his final three. And he recently was, I forget the exact terminology. I don't want to say kicked out because I don't think that was the terminology there. I think he resigned from the school or some way of putting it from his high school. I don't know what was going on there. Like certainly you would think of it was something like really bad. Like wouldn't there be like something with police involved or something? I don't know. It seems like it's just something that it's probably like attitude or behavior like school

related things. I don't know. I'm not trying to like downplay it, but I'm, I guess what I'm saying is I don't think it's like a legal thing. I feel like you would have heard of that by now. so that's fine. But I don't know how that affects the recruitment. Maybe it delays it a little bit, right? Sounds like he's looking for obviously a different high school. The ultimate pipe dream for me, I'm not expecting this, but I've kind of brought up before.

Like, could Kansas find another body to bring in for the second semester as a big man? Okay, sure, add Tyrant Snokes if you could make it work. I'm obviously not expecting that to happen at all. But, you know, that would be kind of a fun pipe dream to get to, but it seems like Kansas is still kind of in the running there. KU soccer is going to be hosting. in the NCAA tournament. A great regular season.

Really good non-con start. You know, solid Big 12 play in a really difficult league. And then they turned it back on in the Big 12th tournament, made it to the Big 12th championship. Well, they got a three seed in the NCAA tournament. They go 14, 5, and 3. And they end up getting to host in the NCAA tournament as well. So they're going to be taken on Cal Baptist in the first round of the NCAA tournament.

That'll be coming up on Friday. It's going to be good weather. So it'd be kind of cool if they get to sell that thing out over at Rockchalk Park. And if they win that, they'll be taken on the winner of Louisville, Kentucky in a rivalry matchup. And that'll be played the following week. And then after that, I don't know if they'd need Duke to lose to host again or what because Duke is the two seed in their region. But they've been really good in tournament play under Nate Lee.

So certainly I think that they can do. do some damage in the NCAA tournament this year. And then our final little update here with KU Women's Volleyball, 19 and 8 now on the season. They've won four straight matches. They're sitting in a 10 and 3 in conference play and a big one upcoming because they lost to Kansas State in that game in Allen Fieldhouse was a really cool moment and opportunity.

Unfortunately, they didn't win and that led into the KUK State football loss. But they're going to be getting an opportunity to win on the road in Manhattan as they're going to be taking them on on Saturday. at 1 o'clock, and then they'll be on the road for that Utah duo with at Utah and at BYU the following week, they'll have out of Iowa State after that. So really finishing up on the road here. And then their home finale is the regular season finale, November 29th against UCF. They're kind of on the borderline if they're going to get to host or not.

I think they probably have to win out if they want to host, maybe if they go four and one, they're at least in contention. But I think if they win out, that at least that gives you the best opportunity possible with being kind of on the borderline. think especially winning out would include like a big win at BYU. That might be enough to get you in there. And for kind of a younger team, like getting to play at home would certainly not be the worst thing in the world.

That'll do for this episode of Locked on Jayhawks. You can find our show anywhere you get your podcast, including on a YouTube page where you can like and subscribe to the show. See you next time for another edition of Locked on Jayhawks as we'll be previewing the KU Princeton game.