Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - SHOWDOWN: Kansas and Baylor Clash – Can Darryn Peterson IGNITE a Winning Streak for the Jayhawks?

Starting point is 00:00:00 It's another round of Bill Self for Scott Drew, two coaches who probably don't like each other very much, and a big one coming on Friday in Allen Fieldhouse. You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks, part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. What's going on? Derek Johnson here with another edition of Locked on Jayhawks. Thanks for making it your first listen every day. And thank you, the everydayers catching each and every episode of the show. Don't forget, too, you can check out the Everydayer Club where you can get the ad-free version of Lockdown, J-Hawks.

Starting point is 00:00:41 And thank you for making Lockdown, the number one sports podcast network. On today's episode of the show, we are previewing Kansas and Baylor, a little Friday night action in Ellen Fieldhouse. Can we see Darren Peterson go off? What about Baylor? They've got some interesting pieces who could be won and done as well, our future pros. So we're going to break down Baylor's game, their scouting report, players to watch for both teams, keys for Kansas to come out with the victory, all that and more. episode, which is brought to you by Fandual Sportsbook. Cultural Football Playoff

Starting point is 00:01:09 Championship game is coming up on Monday. FanDwell is the best place to get into the action for the championship. Visit fandwell.com to get your college football playoff profit boost on game day. So Kansas takes on Baylor, rare Friday night game at 7 o'clock

Starting point is 00:01:25 in Allen Fieldhouse. I guess they played what was the North Carolina game on Friday. I think it was when they hosted it. I think it was this year as well. But you look at this game, It's just kind of weird, like, why is it happening? I don't know if it was, hey, we usually are used to seeing the Chiefs this weekend. Do we try to avoid the conflict there?

Starting point is 00:01:44 I don't know. But I think a big question for both of these teams coming into this one is can either team capitalize on the momentum? Baylor was 0'n3 coming into their most recent game in Big 12 play, and they stomped Oklahoma State. They're looking to carry that over into establishing a bit of momentum and go on a bit of a hot streak here to boost back up the record. But Kansas, meanwhile, we just saw blow out Iowa State, one of the best teams in the country. Can Kansas capitalize on that momentum? Obviously, Kansas had the players-only meeting leaning into that game, and that obviously helped them in a big way in that game. But is that going to lead to a one-game kind of emotional boost, or is that going to lead to a season-defining moment for KU?

Starting point is 00:02:25 And then just in general, with how well you played, it's hard to get up to that same level again. is Kansas going to be able to get close to that same level of intensity to try to win a game like this? Or can Baylor come in? Because we have seen Kansas be vulnerable here at home, right? Obviously, you didn't see in the Iowa State game, but Kansas nearly lost to TCU on their home floor. Kansas did lose to Yukon on their home floor. So they've got to find a way to revamp up the energy in a big way for Baylor, especially with it being a slightly tighter turnaround in terms of less off days in between games.

Starting point is 00:03:00 Um, KU though, even though I mentioned, yeah, they, you know, they've shown a couple of vulnerabilities at home. They still have been better in Allen Fieldhouse this season. I think that'll be an interesting storyline coming into this game. Obviously, back to back home games here. And then next week, you'll be on the road twice. But I was actually looking at some of the splits on the season to see what exactly has KU done so much better at home as opposed to on the road. They've actually done certain things better on the road than at home. But at home, the defense has been insanely better.

Starting point is 00:03:30 I don't really know what to do to describe this. Kansas in home games has a 96th percentile defensive rating. On the road, it's a 29th percentile defensive rating. That is a wild split, right? They always say defense travels. Apparently not. Kansas is in the 75th percentile for paint points per game at home. They're only in the 42nd percentile on the road.

Starting point is 00:03:53 It feels like Florey has played better at homes. Maybe that kind of defines that one. And this kind of goes into that same notion. 74th percentile for Kansas in two point percentage at home. They're only in the 37th percentile in two point percentage on the road. So they've struggled to finish at the rim a little bit tougher just inside the arc in general. And then they're in the 70th percentile points off turnovers per game at home, 42nd percent on the road, which big reason why is the steel rate.

Starting point is 00:04:18 They have a 52nd percentile steel rate at home, a 14th percentile steel rate on the road. So they're getting more steals. They're getting more jacked up to they have more energy at home. It's allowing him to get those turnovers that are leading to runouts for them. They're not doing it as much on the road, but they are doing it at home. So can they find a way to do some of those things a little bit better on the road? But for this specific matchup, just continue to do those things here at home. Now, when you look at the importance of this game for KU, it's not just that both teams are trying to kind of establish

Starting point is 00:04:48 momentum in where they are on the season. But I think in general, like, we haven't really seen KU be able to establish much momentum. in Big 12 play, really the last couple of seasons. You know what I mean? Like I was going back on the recap episode and talking about, okay, when's the last time Kansas won back to back big 12 games? It was at the end of last season.

Starting point is 00:05:10 But when's the last time, KU won back to back big 12 games against top 50 opponents? And you had to go back to like the 2020, three to 24 season, I think is what we came to. But they just haven't really been able to establish the momentum. Like you look back to last year and, they won three straight big 12 games at one point UCF Arizona State and Cincinnati and then they got

Starting point is 00:05:33 smashed by Iowa State and then they never won more than two straight games in a row. You go back to 2024 and they never won two or they never won more than two games in a row once they hit big 12 play. They won two games in a row on three separate occasions, but they never won three or more. You go back to 2023 and you're getting a six game winning streak in there. You're getting a five and no start. You're getting a five and no there and that team wins the Big 12 and gets a one seed in the NCAA tournament. So the ability to get streaky in Big 12 playing get hot is super important. Now, with the early losses, KU's had with how loaded the Big 12 is, you know, I'm not really as focused on can Kansas win the Big 12 this year?

Starting point is 00:06:15 Obviously, you want to, but I'm more so focused. Can Kansas just play good ball and be in a good position where, you know, they have a good seed and you feel like they're one of the better teams come the NCAA tournament? That's what I'm kind of more focused on right now. That would involve trying to win at home against Baylor and trying to grab a winning streak, trying to grab a momentum swing in the positive direction, especially this would all be helpful because you have two road games next week. Kansas has struggled mightily on the road the last three seasons. And yes, they won at NC State. That was a good win, but we saw them lose at UCF.

Starting point is 00:06:45 We saw them lose at West Virginia. So realistically, what can we expect next week with two road games? Like is one in one the best case scenario? I mean, ideally they go two and oh because neither their opponent is that great. But some of the teams they've lost to have not been top 50 teams in Ken Palm either. So take care of your home court because you don't know what to expect on the road in this league and for this team. And I think in general, this will give us a better idea. Did that player's only meeting start a new line?

Starting point is 00:07:14 Is it a defining moment for the season? Or was it a one game, you know, shot to kind of get you through the week or something? Let's get to the Baylor scouting report. to their strengths and weaknesses, players to watch for both teams, keys to the game, matchups of the game, all that and more. This is Locked on Jayhawks. This episode of the show is brought to you by Fandual's sports book. And with Fandul, you can get in on the Kansas Baylor action. You can also get in on the college football playoff championship game coming up on Monday night. Fandual is given all new, all customers, even more ways to get in on the action

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Starting point is 00:08:26 Fandul, an official sports book partner of the Lockdown Podcast Network. Thanks again for joining us here on Lockdown Jayhawks. Don't free you can join the Everydayer Club as well. Do you like Locked on Jayhawks? Would you like it even better if you had an ad-free version of the show? Well, you can do that by joining the Everydayer Club. That's compatible with all your major podcast apps. And you get an invite to the members only Locked on Everyday or Club Discord server.

Starting point is 00:08:50 We have our own Locked on Jayhawks channel. We have the College Football Channel. We have the portal channel where you can just chat it up. And we can talk about things about the show. or things you want to talk about. So check that out with the locked on podcast.com slash everyday or link or it's in the show notes. Okay, Baylor comes in at 11 and 5 on the season. They are 1 and 3 in Big 12th play.

Starting point is 00:09:11 But again, they opened 0 and 3, and they just got a big 15 point win on the road against Oklahoma State. Now, the losses were to TCU by 6, Iowa State by 10 and Houston by 22. Good news for Kansas there is that's two common opponents that Kansas beat and they lost two. They almost lost the TCU, though, did Kansas? similar to Baylor. But in the non-con, you look at Baylor's resume, they got top 50 wins against Washington, Creighton, and then San Diego State's right outside the top 50,

Starting point is 00:09:38 but right there, none of those are top 30 teams, but they're all right around that 50 range. Losses to St. John's by 15, and then a bad loss to a not very good Memphis team this year. But right now you look at both Bart Torvik and Kenpom. This is a top 20 offense in the country, but the defense has been a little bit rough,

Starting point is 00:09:57 So they are barely inside the top 100 defensively on Ken Palm. They are outside the top 140 on Bart Torvick. And this is kind of just how they've been over the last, I don't know, it felt like since Jerome Tang left, like really after they won the title, like the team that won the title could guard you and was really good offensively. Since that point, Baylor's consistently had like some of the most efficient offenses in the country, but the defenses have just not been there. So again, I don't know if that was a Tang thing necessarily.

Starting point is 00:10:25 But overall, Ken Palm has them right around top 40 team. Torvick a little lower on them has them in the top 50. But they are talented enough to be better than I think what we've seen so far. And also we've seen KU struggle with similarly ranked teams with UCFTC in West Virginia. So this isn't just a gimmie, right? At this point, I don't know that there is a gimmie for KU. Maybe the home game against Utah, right? That should be a gimmie as long as you take care of business there.

Starting point is 00:10:52 But the strengths and weaknesses for KU, let's start here. Shooting is one big strength for Baylor. They're in the 77th percentile and two point percentage. So they shoot it well from inside the arc. 87th percentile in three point percentage, very good three point shooting team. They're in the 84th percentile overall, an effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage. And they do it from most zones all over. Like they're strong at the rim, above the break threes, mid range.

Starting point is 00:11:16 Even their lower zones usually aren't that poor. So just a very good shooting team that the Kansas defense can have its hands full. If they play like they did against Iowa State defensively, they're going to be in much better shape than if it's the first three games, because then they're going to go 90 to 100 points. Maybe not. Baylor doesn't play at a super fast pace, but they don't turn it over.

Starting point is 00:11:35 Does Baylor, 78th percentile in turnover rate, and they're in the 80th percentile in assist to turnover rate. So again, they take care of the basketball, and they shoot it well. That's a good combo. They also get extra possessions, very good offensive rebounding team. 99th percentile on offensive rebound rate, 95th percentile, in second chance points per game.

Starting point is 00:11:55 So you're talking about a team who shoots it well. When they rarely miss, they get a lot of the offense rebounds, and then they just don't turn the ball over. So they win the possession game and they shoot the crap out of it. That is why they are such an efficient offense, right? The other thing they do is they score in transition. Ninety first percentile in fast break scoring points per game at 14.9 fast breaks points per game.

Starting point is 00:12:17 So that just adds to the lethalness of their offense. I mentioned just a moment ago, they're not the fastest pace team that they actually kind of slow it down a little bit more in the half court but when they get the opportunities to run they will and you better be ready for it for for weaker bayler um defensive rebounding has not been a strength for them 14th percentile defensive rebound rate obviously they added james naji that got a lot of headlines the player who's drafted 30 first a couple years ago in the draft hasn't played in the NBA has been playing and i think for like Barcelona or Spain or something like that um and

Starting point is 00:12:50 Baylor's had some injury at the center position. They've had some difficulties at the center position. That was part of the reason they brought him on. But yeah, 14th percentile in defensive rebound rate. This needs to be a game where KU gets double digit, you know, dozen plus offensive rebounds. Transition defense has also, even though they're a good transition offense, they are not a good transition defense.

Starting point is 00:13:08 They are in the 12th percentile in fast break points allowed per game. They're giving up 13.3 fast break points per game. So for Kansas offense that, you know, they don't always speed it up, but when they do, they look pretty good doing it. This should be a game where you're able to put up some transition fast break scoring. They don't force turnovers. They don't give it up themselves or they don't really force much either. 44th percentile in steel rate.

Starting point is 00:13:32 They're in the 26th percentile in defensive turnover rate. So again, they're not forcing a ton of steals like maybe they were in that title winning team. And then the last one here is shooting in the paint versus size. So Baylor ranks outside the top 200 in a lot of. average height. They're not the biggest team. Obviously, adding James Naji helps to that. But if you just look at their quad one and two games, I think that's where it shows up. Because if you overall look at their numbers, you know, in terms of two-point shooting or at the rim, like, they're fine. But in the quad one and two games, which typically tend to be against bigger teams,

Starting point is 00:14:12 that's where it's going to matter more. So in just the quad one and quad two games, they're down to just 55.2% at the rim, which puts Baylor in the quad one and two games in just the 29th percentile nationally in shooting at the rim. They're also just 37.7% in the paint, but not at the rim, which puts them in the 46th percentile there. So not the biggest team in the world. So even though they're a good jump shooting team against bigger teams with size, they have struggled to finish at the rim. Players to watch will start with Kansas. Let's go with Florida Bedunga, 13.7 points per game, 8.8 rebounds per game, 2 and a half blocks per game on 64%. I posted this on my Twitter at D Johnson Radio of the box score stats for KU against just quad 1 and quad 2 opponents.

Starting point is 00:14:56 Florey's numbers down a little bit. He's down to 11 points per game. The field goal percentage drops to the mid-50s. They need him to be a presence in a lot of these games. And they had the bigs doing different things or sometimes one through four. And I think that was helpful for KU, right? But now that it's on tape, Baylor's going to know to prepare for that, potentially. So it'll be interesting what KU does. They throw a little switching one through five.

Starting point is 00:15:18 They throw a little of this or that and to offensive rebound, but then also struggle on the defensive glass. That's where Badunga comes in. Can Badunga not get pushed around and get defensive rebounds? And then can Badunga be a force and get a handful of offensive rebounds for KU, right? And then can Bedunga find some offensive success against Baylor team that doesn't have a lot of center options? Because so far you look at it this season against power opponents, but Doongos only had three games with more than 13 points, 14 against Duke, 18 against Notre Dame, 16 against TCU and overtime. I think they might need that in this one. Darren Peterson, as our other player to watch, 21.8 points per game, 4.8 rebounds per game,

Starting point is 00:16:01 two stocks per game, 47 from the field, 40 from three, and 86 of the foul line. He is low key, though, over the last two games, just 38% from the field, just 31% from three. obviously I don't expect that to last, which means a big game is coming. Like the reversion back up, I think is coming for him. Why not against a bad defense like Baylor? Especially when he's looked more explosive athletically over the last couple games. For Baylor, their players to watch. We're going to start with Cameron Carr.

Starting point is 00:16:28 What an addition he was for Scott Drew. He was a transfer from Tennessee. I think he transferred like mid-semester last year, so I had to sit out and then now comes through for Baylor. And he's a six-four or six-five sophomore guard. He's putting up over 20 points per game, 20.3 points per game, 5.1 rebounds per game, 2.3 assists per game. He's shooting 54% from the floor, 42% from 3, 76 at the foul line. He's going to see Darren Peterson at the other side and say, hey, I want to put on a show.

Starting point is 00:16:56 There's going to be NBA scouts watching this. And he comes in with 17 or more points in eight straight games. He has a season high earlier of 28. He can fill it up. He's in the 98th percentile for offensive windchairs per 40, 99th percentile in P.E.R. He gets the foul line. He has a 96 percentile shooting percentage.

Starting point is 00:17:16 He's just a really efficient player that finishes at the rim, makes his threes. He's a bigger athletic guard. Certainly somebody who's going to be difficult for KU to slow down. And then you have Tunei Yesafu, who is a potential one and done for them.

Starting point is 00:17:27 He's a six foot five wing, just kind of a powerful athlete, who is putting up 18.6 rebounds, three stocks per game. He's shooting 50% from the floor, 30 from 3 and 78 at the foul line. And he's had double figures in every game. including 23 points last game.

Starting point is 00:17:44 So he comes into this one feeling a little bit of a heater. He's in the 91st percentile win shares per 40. He's the best defensive win shares on the team that obviously hasn't been super strong there, but still 97th percentile in PER and wins above replacement player. He's not the best shooter or passer. So if you can turn him into somebody who has to pass a little bit, that'd be helpful. But he's a great athlete. He's in the 83rd percentile and two point percentage.

Starting point is 00:18:09 He's in the 99th percentile in offense of revest. rate. There's a super powerful springy athlete in Yesifu. That'll be a very difficult athletic matchup, I think for for Trey White to have to kind of deal with. All right, let's get on to our keys to the game for the KU offense and defense, our player matchup, our Hawks the Soar, all that next. This is Lockdown Jayhawks. Thanks again for joining us here on L.O.J. And don't forget check out our Trey Lathen returning episode right here on the show. You can also check out the every day or club as well, where you can get the ad-free version of Locked on Jayhawks.

Starting point is 00:18:45 All right, keys of the game for Kansas. Let's start with the offense. I think get the defensive rebound and go. So we know that Baylor crashes the offensive glass, and they are very good at doing it. The downside to that is if you can get a clean defensive rebound, if you're Kansas, now they have numbers forward.

Starting point is 00:19:03 You can pitch it ahead and try to beat them back in transition. Again, I go to that stat that I mentioned earlier in the weaknesses that on the season there, the 12th percent time fast break points allowed per game. So if you can get the defensive rebound and pitch it ahead, you're going to have opportunities there. The best way for Kansas to score consistently and be super efficient offensively is to do just that. So grab the defensive rebound and go. For the KU defense, I think the guards and wings needs to have a big rebounding game.

Starting point is 00:19:31 Baylor crashes hard. You need the guards and wings to crash hard with them. And obviously, you know, that's kind of a, a difficult thing when I'm saying grab the defensive rebound and go because you want some of my guys outletting and stuff. But like, you know, Melvin Council had seven defensive rebounds against Iowa State. Like, I think you need some stuff like that in this one. And then I would also say this, be on your guy off ball and stay on shooters. Baylor's in the 89th percentile in frequency of driving kicks.

Starting point is 00:20:00 So the team that's going to dribble drive and then kick it out to somebody from three. Stay on your guy from three, right? You need to basically trust each other in their man defense. They're also in the 79th percentile in perimeter cutting. So you can't fall asleep that, hey, I've got this guy who's a good three-point shooter, and then all of a sudden you're not paying attention to get back cut, right? Offball defense is going to be important in this one for KU. Our player matchup is Obie Ogbim against, I guess, Melvin Counsel, Darren Peterson,

Starting point is 00:20:31 Marco Jackson, Jamari McDowell, whoever draws him on the defense side. So Ogman will play the one or the two for Baylor. He's a streaky shooter. he can create off the bounce or off the ball. He had 15 points last game, and he's had six games this year with four or more made threes, but the splits are super noticeable for Baylor. Like it is very up and down with his scoring output. And the wins for Baylor, Ogbem is averaging 13.2 points per game on 48% from three.

Starting point is 00:20:59 In the losses, Ogim is averaging just 5.8 points per game, so less than half, on 21% from three. So it's a huge difference. So for whoever on KU draws that matchup, right, we've seen O'Marco make a big defensive impact lately. If it's counsel, if it's Peterson, you need to be strong there, right? And then on the flip side, I don't think Hogbim is the strongest defender. He's not the biggest guy. So whoever has him take advantage of that on the other end of the floor.

Starting point is 00:21:25 Our Hawk does soar here. And looking into this, Baylor gives up a lot of in the paint and mid-range shots. Melvin Council leads KU at the in-the-paint shots, which again are defined as not at rim but still in the paint. So he's taking 3.8 per game at just 39%. But in Big 12 play, he's at 50% in that range. Then you look at Darren Peterson. He leads Kansas with three mid-range attempts per game.

Starting point is 00:21:52 He's doing so on a 66th percentile outcome. And he has an 84th percentile outcome in the paint. So maybe you look to counsel, maybe look to Peterson. I'm going to say Darren Peterson gets 30 plus in this game. How about that? Okay. As long as he stays healthy, knock you. on what. All right. That'll do it for this episode, Locked on Jayhawks. You can find a show anywhere

Starting point is 00:22:11 you get your podcast, including on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe to the show. And we'll see you next time for another edition of Locked on Jayhawks to recap whatever happens between the Jayhawks and the Bears.

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - SHOWDOWN: Kansas and Baylor Clash – Can Darryn Peterson IGNITE a Winning Streak for the Jayhawks?

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