Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Surprises and Disappointments Around the Halfway Mark of Big 12 Play for Kansas Jayhawks Basketball

Episode Date: February 8, 2024

Biggest surprises and disappointments for Kansas Jayhawks basketball around the half-way mark of Big 12 conference play from Johnny Furphy's come-up, KJ Adams steady play, Hunter Dickinson's struggles from three and KU's path to winning the league over Houston, Iowa State and others. Plus, what other teams across the league have been the biggest surprises and disappointments like Texas, Cincinnati and more.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!LinkedInThese days every new potential hire can feel like a high stakes wager for your small business. That’s why LinkedIn Jobs helps find the right people for your team, faster and for free. Post your job for free at LinkedIn.com/lockedoncollege. Terms and conditions apply.GametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDON for $20 off your first purchase.FanDuelNew customers, join today and you’ll get TWO HUNDRED DOLLARS in BONUS BETS if your first bet of FIVE DOLLARS or more wins. Visit FanDuel.com/LOCKEDON to get started.eBay MotorsWith all the parts you need at the prices you want, it’s easy to turn your car into the MVP and bring home that win. Keep your ride-or-die alive at EbayMotors.com. Eligible items only. Exclusions apply. eBay Guaranteed Fit only available to US customers.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On today's Locked on Jayhawks, biggest disappointments, biggest come-ups and surprises so far as we're about halfway through Big 12 play. You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. I'm Derek Johnson. You can hear me as well Monday through Friday from 3 to 6 p.m. on KLWN's Rock Chalk Sports Talk, at least for the next couple days. Thanks for making Locked on Jayhawks your first listen every day. We are free and available anywhere you get your podcasts, including on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe to the show.

And on today's edition of Locked on Jayhawks, we're evaluating KU at about the halfway point of Big 12 play. They just went over halfway point with the KU State game. Biggest come-ups, biggest surprises for KU. What does the path look like to trying to win the Big 12 at this point in time as they're just 6-4? And looking around the Big 12, which other teams have maybe had the biggest, I guess, surprises or disappointments so far to this point in time.

First, this episode of the show is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. Make every moment more. New customers today. Join and you'll get $200 in bonus bets. If your first bet of $5 or more wins, visit FanDuel.com slash locked on to get started. So I think overall, if you were to evaluate KU and say from where you were at the end of non-conference play to where you are now through 10 games in conference play, about at the halfway point, are you better or worse off than where you were?

Well, if you look at it from a record perspective, you were 12 and one through non-conference. You were one of the top three teams in the country in the AP poll. Now you're fourth, but that will probably drop after the Kansas State game. And now, obviously, you've lost four of your last 10 games. That's lower, but also the schedule is tougher. You are bound to lose more games than you lost in the non-con when you're playing UMKC and Missouri and Wichita State and North Carolina Central and some of these schools, right? Now, if you look at the Ken Palm rating for Kansas, so after their Wichita State win, which was their last non-conference win,

they were 15th in the country on Ken Palm. Right now they're 14th. So they're about in line with where they've been. And I think on some hands you could argue that they're better off, right? Like when you see them beat Houston, that gives you just that other good win. But then you keep seeing them lose on the road to lesser teams, a lot of non-NCAA tournament teams, and that makes them worse. I think when you're looking at this from some other things, like individuals or things they're doing better or worse, I think one of the biggest come-ups they've had, though,

has to be Johnny Furphy. And that's why you could make the argument that even though they've lost some of these games, that the arrow is pointed forward or pointed up overall for KU. In Big 12 only play, and this even includes, let's see, there was the TCU game, UCF game. So this even includes two games where Johnny Furphy was coming off the bench. But overall in Big 12 play, Johnny Furphy is averaging 11.8 points per game, 5.9 rebounds per game, 1.2 assists per game. He's shooting 56% from the floor, 44% from three-point range. And you compare that with the production you were getting from El Marco Jackson,

which was typically around, you know, even when he was a starter, maybe four, five, six points per game, one or two assists per game, one or two rebounds per game. It's night and day, not nearly as much efficiency in what you've been able to get there. And so Johnny Furphy has gone from being this solid bench player to now this stud starter. And up until the Kansas State game, I mean, that two-week stretch, you could argue he'd been, I don't know, maybe even he was like best starter because Kevin's had a couple up and down games in there. And I don't know. Yeah, you could make that argument, even though I don't necessarily know that I would. But still, the point being, he has played really good basketball, and that's been a huge come up for him, enough so that people are talking about

could he be an NBA draft pick as soon as this year in the 2024 NBA draft and the impact that he has made on this KU team. And I think that's the other biggest come up so far in Big 12 plays. We're halfway through. His impact on the team and specifically on the offense. So since he's been a starter, which is January 13th, he started that first game against Oklahoma in Allen Fieldhouse. Kansas wins by 12 points.

During that span with him as a starter, Kansas' record is 5-3. So it's not like the record jumps off the page. But you also take into account it's Big 12 play. Things are very difficult. You've lost a couple tough games on the road, and you've won some big games. Since Johnny Furphy's been a starter, these are the updated numbers. On Bart Torvik, Kansas is the number five team overall in the country. One during that same span, one is Connecticut, two is Purdue, three is Houston,

four is St. Mary's, and five is Kansas. And when you look at the offensive side of the ball, Kansas, since Johnny Furphy has become a starter, has the number four offense in the country. Number one's Purdue, number two is Kentucky, but their defense is in that span in the 200s. Marquette is three, and then Kansas is four. And during that span, among the top eight offenses since Furphy has become a starter, Alabama's six, Bradley's seven, or I'm sorry, Alabama's five, Bradley's six, BYU's seven, and Northwestern is eight.

There's only two that have top 35 defenses during that span too, Purdue and Kansas. So you talk about the impact that Furphy has had. He has, you could almost say saved the season. Like if El Marco was still the starter and you weren't getting much there from El Marco Jackson still, like maybe you lose another one of these games. Maybe you lose at home to Cincinnati. Maybe you do lose the Houston game.

I know you won by 13, so it's hard to be like, well, there's one change, switch that. I don't know. Furphy was pretty impactful in that game, right? Maybe that is the difference there. But it's more than that. It's that with Furphy, even though you have stumbled a few times and some of them have just been, okay, the other team is really hot, some of them have been, you played bad or whatever it is. It's because of Furphy that I feel better where this team is at and where

they're going for the NCAA tournament. And so if Elmarco was still going as a starter and he didn't have this come up from Furphy, maybe it would be talking more right now that, yeah, this has been a struggle for them right now. And that might be indicative of what could happen in the NCAA tournament too, where I feel a little bit better about that because of his level of play. I think low key KJ Adams has seen his level of play jump up pretty noticeably in big 12 play. So on the season, he is averaging 12.7 points per game in big 12 play. It's up to 13.3. His rebounds on the

season, 4.6, big 12 play. It's up to 5.1 assists per game, 3.5 per game and big 12 play, it's up to 5.1. Assists per game, 3.5 per game. In Big 12 play, it's up to 3.7. Field goal percentage for KJ, 63% on the air. It's up to 65% in conference play. And free throw percentage up from 60.5% on the season to 71.4% in conference-only games. KJ has, it's not as noticeable of a jump, as big of a jump as Johnny Furphy went from being a bench player to being this stud starter now. but KJ has incrementally improved in really every category so far in Big 12 play just feels like every month like he just gets better and better at basketball and this goes back to you know even when he first came in at Kansas biggest disappointments though

so far from when league play started to where we are now but the halfway point. Somehow, the bench has seemingly gotten worse. Now, there have been a few nice plays or stretches or maybe a few moments here from maybe specific games. Furphy came off the bench and played well early against UCF when he was still coming off the bench. You look at the blowouts he had against Oklahoma State that gave the bench a little bit longer leash to work with. The Houston game, you had a few nice moments. The El Marco offensive rebound and put back, Parker Brown hits the three. But for the most part, those have been far and few between.

And overall in Big 12 play, Kansas has gotten 339 minutes from a combination of Parker Brown, El Marco Jackson, Jamari McDowell, and Nick Timberlake. And yes, that does include the three games that Elmarco Jackson started in conference play. So because you're looking at the one that you had without Kevin McCuller that he started and then the two that he started before Johnny Furphy. So it does skew the numbers a little bit that this isn't just me purely saying these are the bench numbers, but those four guys consist of what your bench is now and total it all up between those four. That's 339 minutes played. It's about 34 minutes per game, 73 points scored, 7.3 points per game

on 26 of 65 shooting and nine of 30 from three. So that basically means if you collected all four of KU, what now is their bench players with Marco Jackson, Nick Timberlake, Parker Brown, and Jamari McDowell, and turned them into one player, so far in Big 12 play on average, that one player is playing 34 minutes per game. They're only getting 7.3 points per game on 40% shooting and 30% from 3. It feels like the numbers have dropped off even more from where you were in non-conference play and it hasn't started to get better. You haven't seen, you know,

Furphy, we've seen that curve arc go up and him start to break out. Haven't seen that with Nick Timberlake. Haven't seen that with Elmarco Jackson. I honestly am at a point where I'm legitimately just like, just give Michael Jankovic five minutes a game. Hope he hits a three or two. Like, I don't know. I know the defense isn't good, but it's gotta be more than you're getting now. The other one is Hunter Dickinson's three point shooting has certainly been a disappointment so far in big 12 play in the first half. He's still at 35.4% overall, but he's only at 17.4% in league play. I still think he's a good shooter. He's shooting like 58% on mid range shots in big 12 play. The shots are going to eventually call falling. The K are going to eventually fall.

The K-State ones, they were halfway down. They just popped out. Keep shooting. I think they'll fall long. But KU needs him to start hitting those shots because they're not a team that hits a lot of threes. They need to find ways to kind of manufacture that. The last one here is the biggest disappointment is the road struggles. Because entering into conference play, they only had one true road game. And it was a game that they were behind for a lot of it and they struggled more than they probably should have now looking

back that Indiana is only ranked 96th on Ken Palm but they found a way to win on the road so it's like okay they at least graded a way to win in a way that I was kind of talking about earlier like that is what Bill Self teams do when they're not playing well or things aren't going well they grind their way to a win and that's what happened in the Indiana game that has not carried over into conference play so far, so that would be one of the other disappointments there. All right, let's continue on for KU with evaluating their path to how can they win the Big 12 at this point in time

as they're sitting at just 6-4 in league play. First, this episode, though, of Locked on Jayhawks is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. Happy Super Bowl to all who celebrate from FanDuel, America's number one sportsbook. If you're like me, Super Bowl Sunday is all about scoring the best seat on the couch, grabbing your favorite football snacks, and placing some super bets.

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Whatever you want to do, you can customize it with FanDuel. And new customers join today, and you'll get $200 in bonus bets. If your first bet of $5 or more wins, just visit FanDuel.com slash locked on to sign or more wins just visit fanduel.com slash locked on to sign up that is fanduel.com slash locked on make every moment more with FanDuel an official sportsbook partner of the NFL. What is KU's path to winning the Big 12? Well at this point in time Ken Palm's only projecting Kansas to win four more games and finish it 10-8 in conference play with Houston at 13-5 only projecting Kansas to win four more games and finish it 10 and eight in conference play with Houston at 13 and five. So you got to make up three games there. Now, Iowa state gets a big win at Texas last night, and they nearly beat one at Baylor. If

they had won that game at Baylor, they'd be in the prime seat right now in winning the conference with back-to-back tough road wins and everything. So Iowa state, I think is in a good position when you look at, you know, their final remaining schedule, they're sitting at six and three versus TCU at Cincinnati versus Texas tech at Houston versus West Virginia versus Oklahoma at UCF versus BYU at Kansas state. They might only lose two more of those,

maybe three more. So that might get them to 12. You look at Houston's upcoming schedule here. And they're sitting at 7-3 after a blowout win over Oklahoma State last night. They have at Cincinnati versus Texas versus Iowa State, at Baylor versus Cincinnati, at Oklahoma, at UCF, and versus Kansas. They might only lose two more of those, maybe three at most. So I think you continue to look at the numbers here when you look at some of the other teams at the top and being like okay 13 and 5 wins you the league 12 and 6 might be enough to get a share of it and that's kind of how I'm

looking at it right now if you view it from the standpoint of you know these teams were six and three at the halfway point before some of them have played their you know 10th game so far this week then you just double it up that would lead to 12 and 6 though I think Houston's schedule in the first half was a bit tougher than maybe their second half schedule is. But from the Kansas perspective, it is more just about doing what you need to do. If you finish the year 12-6 in conference play, meaning you would finish 6-2 in league play after starting 6-4, you might not end up winning the league. Maybe Houston goes 13-5, but at least you would feel like, okay, you did your part.

You won a good chunk of games. You started playing better in a difficult part of the schedule. And I think that's, what's most important at this point in time. I know it's easier to say this when you're not winning the league and when the big 12 title streak is no longer a thing. And that's absolutely true, right? If they still had a streak going like this would become even more of an important thing. But I think the combination of how big the league has gotten, how many good teams there are, the idea that you can still accomplish a lot in the NCAA tournament, that you can still accomplish a lot in the regular season without winning the

big 12, that you can still win a conference tournament that probably means more now the big 12 conference tournament probably means more than it does in past years, because you don't have the true double round robin and maybe it is more of a settling the score type of of situation in the big 12 tournament you look at the unbalanced schedules you know like for instance texas tech who's in the league title race although they've dropped three straight um they don't have a return trip to lawrence iowa state who's in the big 12 title trip title race they don't have a return

trip to lawrence like you end up with a, it's no longer the Big 12 where it was double round Robin and you get the true league champion at the end. So like I said, it's easier to say this when you're not in first place in the league and the 14 straight is no longer a thing, but I do think it is a little less important to win the Big 12. I'm not saying that you're not trying to win it. Obviously you are. You want to get that ring. And usually if you win the Big 12, the best conference in the country, that means that you if you win the big 12 the best conference in the country that means that you're going to be one of the best teams in the country and that's going to set you up well for most years a good seed and a better path in the NCAA tournament and better locations where you're playing your games that's

all understandable and I totally get it and if you're going to compete for something if you're going to be in a league why not win it right I'm just saying it does seem to matter a little bit less than some other ones but for Kansas I mean this kind of comes down to it like you're gonna have to handle road environments better I think if you do want to win the league it is it is non-negotiable you have to go undefeated at home and you did clear the biggest hurdle to that by beating Houston but still some other hurdles like Baylor on Saturday they've gotten close to winning in Allen Fieldhouse a couple times lately and, in fact, did win in Allen Fieldhouse, what was that, four years ago. That is a hurdle to clear.

Versus Texas, that's one I think you should be able to handle. Versus BYU, that's one where BYU shoots so many threes and they shoot them at such a high percentage that if they do come in and, I mean, 51% of their field goal attempts are threes and they get hot from three maybe that makes them dangerous to come in Allen Fieldhouse and win I think you should be able to handle Kansas State at home so those would be the two that I kind of circle but then on the road you're at Texas Tech next week on Monday at Oklahoma the following Saturday then you're at Baylor at the beginning of March on Saturday and at Houston.

If you go two and two on the road to finish, I think that that's like, I would take that basically is what I'm saying, because it's not just for road games. It's for road games against really good opponents. And that's the biggest problem with them starting one in four on the road and big 12 play is that a lot of them have been road games outside of Iowa state to bottom half teams in the big 12. Whereas your final four road games all come to basically top half of the teams in the Big 12. I guess Oklahoma's kind of in the middle there and in the muck of what you're trying to say. So you have to figure out a way to handle those road environments better. You're going to need more consistent offensive and overall rebounding, I would say. Right now, Kansas only ranks 247th in the country in offensive rebounding rate.

In Big 12 only games. They are 11th. So that's actually their percentage has actually dropped about half a percentage point, just a little bit under that in terms of how many they're getting on the offense side of the ball. But it's been the consistency. Like they've had some games where they have had good offensive rebounding numbers and it just hasn't carried over game to game.

They have to find a way to make that more consistent. Maybe that's something where the depth comes into play. And, you know, if you had more adept big men and more of an, I don't know, athletic team that wasn't playing all 35 minutes per game, you'd have more energy to go up and get those rebounds. I don't know. More consistent turnover numbers on both sides because UCF game, TCU game, Houston game, we've seen bad turnover numbers for KU. We've also seen them have games where they have an inability to force turnovers. That needs to become more consistent moving forward for KU and certainly would help on the road.

I would also say increasing the three-point volume. Right now Kansas is 329th in the country in three-point attempt per field goal attempt. They are last, 14th of 14 in Big 12 only games. I'm not saying they should become a BYU or team that is shooting a bunch of threes, but can you go up from shooting 14, 15, 16? Can you get up to 18? Can you get up to 20? Because Kansas has actually shot them at a decent efficiency, especially now that Furphy's in the lineup. 36.6% from three-point range for Kansas. I think it would actually behoove them to shoot a little bit more from the outside and try to equal out what some of the other teams have done against

them from the outside. Now that means Hunter Dickinson's got to the outside and try to equal out what some of the other teams have done against them from the outside. Now that means Hunter Dickinson's got to keep shooting and start to see him go in. You continue to need to be aggressive from Kevin and Johnny Furphy. I think DeJuan Harris needs to be even more aggressive. There are times when he's passing up a decent look from three. Just shoot those, you know, all together. Timberlake, just come in, just come in firing. If you go 0 for 2 in two minutes, I'd rather that happen.

And then you get pulled because you can't make a shot. Then you're just not being aggressive enough and you're throwing the ball out of bounds. The schedule, though, is very tough for Kansas, but I think over these next three games, versus Baylor at Texas Tech at Oklahoma, you go 2-1 in that stretch, I think you're feeling okay about where you could be. So right now, the betting odds, Houston is the favorite. You've got Iowa State there in second, and then Kansas still has kind of a fighter's chance in this, if you're a believer that you can get some good odds on that on FanDuel. All right, let's finish up here with some of the other teams across the Big 12

that have maybe been the biggest surprises or disappointments so far midway through conference play. First, this episode of the show is brought to you by game time buying tickets to your favorite sporting event should not be stressful with game time they have a fast and easy way for you to buy tickets for all your favorites to sports music comedy and theater near you with killer deals on last minute tickets and their best price guarantee so you can stop stressing over the tickets and start getting hyped for the fun that you're going to be having they have the lowest price guarantee event cancellation protection, job loss protection,

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and use code LOCKEDON for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Again, create an account and redeem code LOCKEDON for $20 off. Download GameTime today. Last-minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed. Which Big 12 teams have surprised and disappointed the most? To be clear, how we've been evaluating things is end of non-conference play from where we were at the start of big 12 play to where we are now at the halfway point.

So for instance, you know, if you're looking at the overall from when the season began to where we are now, BYU would still be one of the biggest surprises, but honestly the fact that they entered into big 12 play like top five and Ken Palm, and now they're only four and five? Does that actually lean them toward being disappointment? I don't think so, but I don't have them on either of these lists. I think one of the big surprises has been Texas Tech.

They, I know, have lost three straight games and four of their last six, but they entered into conference play ranked 36th in Ken Palm. And the thought was, okay, this could be an NCAA tournament team, like maybe the middling team in the Big 12, and maybe that's kind of where they are now at 5-4. But the way they started Big 12 play, this has been one of the best offenses in the conference, in the country, and I've been pleasantly surprised with what they've done

and what Grant McCasland has done. They have a home game this Saturday against UCF, so I think that'll be a good opportunity for them to get back on their winning ways. And then they're versus Kansas at Iowa State. They go one and one in those two. Maybe you're kind of talking about, okay, they've still got a puncher's chance in some of this because the schedule is a little bit easier for them,

especially down the stretch, than some of these other Big 12 teams. They have a stretch where they go at UCF versus Texas, at West Virginia, at Oklahoma State. So maybe an opportunity to kind of rack up wins there. I would say Cincinnati has been one of the better surprises so far in Big 12 play. They had a pretty good non-con, but I didn't know how it would carry over to Big 12 action. And they're sitting at four and five, which isn't, you know, an above 500 record or anything like that. But you look at the scores of their game, all five of their losses.

So one point to Texas, three points to Baylor, four points to Oklahoma, five points to Kansas, four points to West Virginia. They do not lose big scores. I think this is a feisty team. In my money, this is an NCAA tournament team, and I hope they make it. I think UCF would be on the biggest surprise list because you very easily could have seen them finishing bottom two in the conference, but they've been feisty enough that they're hanging on to NCAA tournament hopes.

I don't know if they'll get there because somebody has to lose these games in the Big 12, but it's been, I think, a much more impressive season for them. They've beaten Oklahoma. They've beaten Texas. They've beaten Kansas. They can compete with some of the big boys in the Big 12. Honestly, you could make the argument as bad as the non-con was where West Virginia, after the non-con finished up,

was ranked like 124th in the country on on ken palm the fact that they have three big 12 wins including over texas kansas and cincinnati all three could be ncaa tournament teams i think texas might have the weakest resume there but so um that probably means that i guess they've been a good surprise on one hand based on where they were before conference play started as far as the disappointments could you argue kansas they were you you know one of the preseason favorites they were one of the conference favorites to win the title the fact that they're only six and four which ties the worst mark with two other Bill Self teams through 10 games does that make them a bit of a disappointment so far a K-State until they beat Kansas probably could be classified they started four and one lost four

straight but now maybe you wouldn't say that anymore I think Texas could go up there especially after last night, losing at home to Iowa State. They're just four and six. They have a really good starting five in my estimation, but it hasn't always come together, hasn't always found the bench success. And, you know, they started really slow, one and three. Then they got things going a little bit,

but then that lost to Iowa State last night, losing on your home court, kind of tough. So that would be the other one that I would throw in there. That'll do it for this episode of Locked on Jayhawks. You can find our show anywhere you get your podcasts, including on our YouTube page where you can like, subscribe to the action. We'll be back tomorrow for a KU Baylor preview on LOJ.