Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - TALENT OVER EXPERIENCE? Will Tyran Stokes Help Bill Self Shake Theory He Needs Older Players?

Starting point is 00:00:00 You always hear how Bill Self does better with more experienced rosters. Is that a myth? You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks, part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. What's up, Derek Johnson here in today's episode is brought to you by Fandwell. The biggest stage in world soccer is here. Let there be goals on Fandual, visit fanduel.com to get started now. And on today's episode of Locked on Jayhawks, we'll get to the

Starting point is 00:00:35 the top five most important KU football transfer editions. We'll also get into some of the international wing options that KU could look to kick the tires on. And we'll start right here with the battle of experience versus talent. You always hear that Bill Self teams do better with more experience. And I've always been a subscriber of that myself. If you're going through the numbers, is that maybe a myth? Okay, so let's take a look at something. So if you go to Bart Torvik, it's not just that they have, you know, they have Kansas at 11th, right?

Starting point is 00:01:05 now in the rankings for 2027 there. But it's also as part of that, they have like a talent ranking, which I don't know what goes into that. I assume it has something to do with like your recruiting ranking, probably for transfers. There's like a BPM rating involved or whatever. I don't know. Bart does good work. Like, sure, I'll trust it enough, right?

Starting point is 00:01:29 So they're 18th in the country on Bart Torvick's talent rating coming into the season. Now, if you look at experience rating, they ain't so high. On the experience rating on Torvik, Kansas is 356th in the country in Torvick's experience rating. Now, do keep in mind that I don't know as well as with the, when you're looking at the experience rating, like, is it taking into account the guys that he's projecting to play and contribute? For instance, he also has Paul M. Bia still listed as a freshman.

Starting point is 00:02:01 So that's just kind of an error in there. that'll help the experience a little more when he's a sophomore it'll also help when he gets bumped into the rotation because he'll be you know part of the top 10 projected contributors and everything but point being not a very experienced team and when you hear that about bill self not doing as well with inexperienced rosters that scares you a little bit because this is going to be a very inexperienced roster i mean like half the roster is freshman literally i mean more than half the roster right now you have seven of 13 guys are true freshmen coming into the team now How many of those guys are going to be in the rotation? Well, right now you look at tail and Kenny and Tyrant Stokes, and those are the only ones you feel sure about. Maybe one other guy cracks the rotation or is in the top nine. So it's more so the end of the roster is freshman, which is going to skew it a little bit here,

Starting point is 00:02:48 but it's still true that this is a very young team overall. And if you're counting on Stokes to be your best player, he's still a freshman. If you're counting on Tail and Kenny to be a starter, he's still a freshman. Now, I think the natural inclination would be that the least experienced teams that Bill Self has had have not done well. And I think for me, I immediately think of like, oh, yeah, like the 20, you know, 13, 14 Jayhawks.

Starting point is 00:03:13 You had Andrew Wiggins and Joel and Beatt and you only made a second round, right? So I actually wanted to put behind the data with the thought here. And I looked back at Ken Palm's D1 experience rankings for Kansas going back to 2007. Why 2007, you ask? Well, that's when the staff began. So that's as far back of data. data as I possibly have. But that gives us, you know, two decades worth of data there, right?

Starting point is 00:03:37 And what I found is actually pretty interesting. Like Bill Self, for example, has had like high level success no matter where the experience grade was. Okay. So, for instance, Bill Self does have a second weekend appearance with a team that was outside the top 300 in Ken Palm's experience ranking. He also has a second weekend with a team that was between 200 and 300. in experience ranking. He also made two national title games with teams that were between 100 to 200

Starting point is 00:04:09 an experience rating. And the 1920 team that might have played for a title would have been in that range, too. He also has three elite eights with top 100 experience. So he's done it at every level of the experience. Sure, it's been more often with the more experienced teams, but he has done it with the less experienced teams, right? And here's what's interesting too. If you do have a more experienced team with Bill Self, it's not a guarantee that you're just going to automatically have a great team. Sure. He had a top 25 experienced team in 2008 and they won a national title. Okay.

Starting point is 00:04:44 Well, that's enough for me. Like, I was an experienced team. What about the two most recent times he had top 25 experienced teams? 2024 when they lose in the second round and 2025 when they lose in the first round. So it is a bit of a mixed bag. Like it might not just be, hey, if you have more experience that works with self, if you have less experience that doesn't work with self. It might just be a mix of every. Like it might be more about the talent than it is the experience.

Starting point is 00:05:11 Okay, so let's break this down a little bit more, right? There was two seasons since 2007 that Bill Self has had a team that was outside the top 300 nationally in experience rating. Okay. The average finish of those two seasons was 26 wins, somewhere between a two and a three. in the NCAA tournament and a final ranking on Ken Palm of 10.5. That's pretty good. I mean, that's not,

Starting point is 00:05:38 you're not top five or anything, but like if I told you this team would win, we'd go 26 and nine and get a two or three seed and finish the season in the top 11 on Ken Palm, which would be higher than they finished any of the last, you know, three seasons. Sounds like a pretty good season to me,

Starting point is 00:05:54 right? Then if we look at the three seasons that they were between two, 200 and 2199 in experience ranking. They average 29 wins. Their average was a 1.3 seed and their average finish was inside the top 9 on Kenpom. So even with experience between 200 and 299, again, on the lower half of college basketball, average of 29 wins with basically a one seed and a top nine Kenpom finish. I mean, that's not a very experienced team and it sounds like a lot of success there.

Starting point is 00:06:29 Okay. what if we look at even higher on the experience, right? Between 100 to 199, that happened nine times where KU was basically, you know, between that sliver, right? And the average 29 wins as well. The average was a two seed and in the top 10 on Ken Palm on average, right? So that's pretty similar to the one before that. And then we get to the between the 26 to 100, between the top 26 to top 100 in experience ranking. That happened three times. The average there is excellent. 32 wins on average with an average of a one seed and their average finish on Ken Palm four. That's elite. That is incredible. So that would go in line with, hey, when they get more experience, they do better. But then once we go back to

Starting point is 00:07:15 the top 25 experience teams, which happened three times, you're back to averaging a three seed with 27 wins and an average finish of 17 on Ken Palm. So if we order this by, you know, the best seasons, for Bill Self by, let's say if we want to go average finish on Ken Palm, right? The best would be when KU was between 26 to 100th in experience rating. The second best would be 200th to 299th. The third best would be 100th to 199th. The fourth best would be top 300, but all of those are within 1.8 of a difference on Ken Palm. And then it's the top 25 experience is the worst.

Starting point is 00:07:55 And again, if you go by wins, if you go by seeding, like it's a very similar. situation. And none of those are that different than the other, you know, none of those different slivers, the seedings are all between one seed and three seed, you know? So I guess the takeaway for me is this, Bill South can have success with any group. I think it gets overblown that he has to have all sorts of experience, right? Sure, he seems to peak with teams that like, if I was specifically looking at it, like teams that were between like 50 and 150-ish in experience, those look like typically some of the best teams. And you know what that tells me?

Starting point is 00:08:36 It's a mix of experience with talent. Talent that's good enough to go pro early. So they're not going to be there for the entirety of the four years. But also in the world of talent with lack of experience versus experience that's not talented, you take the talent because when you look at Bill, like, I don't know, man,

Starting point is 00:09:00 it's easy to like point back to those 24, like, okay, it's easy to point to the 08 J Hawks and be like, they were so experienced and they won it all. Well, you know what else they had? They had a bunch of pros on the roster,

Starting point is 00:09:11 you know, Brandon Rush, first round draft pick, Drell Arthur, lottery pick, Mario Chalmers, second round draft pick. Was Dorel Arthur late second round pick?

Starting point is 00:09:19 I think he was. Sasha Kahn was like a late second round pick. The team was loaded, the NBA players. And then you still have like Sharon Collins, wasn't an NBA player, but it was like a future All-American. Cole Aldridge, future lottery pick on the team. He was loaded with NBA players. You look at the last two times, KU's been top 25 in experience, the Dwan Harris, Hunter Dickinson, and KJ Adams core.

Starting point is 00:09:38 Well, sure, they were super experienced, but they didn't have a bunch of NBA dudes on the roster. So I'm taking talent over experience all day here for Bill Self. And I think this backs it up that I think we too often focus on the times that it failed. and don't necessarily think back two times that, okay, maybe they were getting experienced with their. And like, here's the thing, that 2013-14 Kansas team that wasn't experienced, if Joel Embed's healthy in the tournament, I'm sorry, but they're probably making an elite eight.

Starting point is 00:10:07 They might win the title legitimately. Like if they beat Florida in the elite eight, who they played well against in the second half when they played them back in like December or something of that season, you're playing a seven-seed Yukon and then like an eight-seat Kentucky in the title game. Like, I don't know. Why not? So give me the talent.

Starting point is 00:10:26 This team's going to test it. It's talented, but it's not as experienced. Now, here it becomes the problem. Is there enough talent, right? When we're talking, give me the talent over experience, are we talking top five talented roster? Are we talking top 10 talented roster? And if you're going off the Torvik number,

Starting point is 00:10:44 right now they're only 18th in terms of talent grade. So how do you boost the talent? You make another addition. Well, Hewain, come on down. International prospect. come on down. Let's get to some international wings that are available that might make some sense for KU next. This is Locked on Jayhawks. We're brought to you by Fandual Sportsbook. The biggest stage in world soccer is here in every match feels like it has the potential for a memorable moment. One goal,

Starting point is 00:11:09 it can completely change the energy of a game, shift momentum and alter the outcome in just an instant. That's what makes tournament soccer so exciting from the opening whistle to the final touch, right? And I know U.S. is no longer in the tournament, but I'm still going to be watching the World Cup. It is so fun at this point in time, right? I'm rooting for Erling Holland and Norway. It feels like if you just put an anytime goal bet on him on Fandual, it's just like an automatic winner at this point in time. But I mean,

Starting point is 00:11:34 the golden boot race, which you can bet on as well over at Fanduel is phenomenal with Mbapé, with Holland, with messy. I mean, it's going to come down to the very finish, right? And it's just unpredictable. That's tournament soccer.

Starting point is 00:11:45 That's World Cup soccer here. So from the opening whistle to the final kick, let there be goals on Fandual. Visit fanduel. To get started today, that's Fandual, official sportswork partner of the lockdown podcast, network. All right, moving on to some international wing options, should KU decide to kick the

Starting point is 00:12:04 tires on these guys. Now, we did a previous episode talking about international bigs available. We did a previous episode talking about international cards available. I think wings make the least amount of sense. I think if KU's adding two players, adding a big, adding the ball handler, make the most sense. But what if something falls in your lap with an agent or, I don't know, the right situation where you're just like, but this guy's really good. We should take him anyway, right? And so from that standpoint, or the flip side is, like, you're just, you're just a lot of just looking to fill out the roster and you're saying, hey, this guy probably won't affect the rotation this year, but he's a cheaper ad and we think we can develop him into something

Starting point is 00:12:36 by year two, year three, then that could be an opening too, right? Here's the elite international wing option. Hugo Yimga Mukori. He's a six foot eight, two hundred and twenty pound wing forward who played at the top level of the French league. Average like 10 points, four rebounds per game. Got 52% from the field, 40 from 3 and 82 at the foul line. And it won't be 18 until some point this month, right? But even as a teenager, you're talking to him averaging over 10 points per game in the playoffs in France, which is one of the best leagues overseas on a senior team, right? And it's not just like a senior team that was like, oh, we're like a not very good senior team who's trying to build up to something. We're going to play a bunch of young guys. His team finished third

Starting point is 00:13:17 in the league standings. So this would be a dude that you would bring in that's a potential first round pick, but because he won't be 18 until some point this month, you get two years out of him. he would be somebody I'd be all over who would actually have to be as part of the rotation, if not be a starter. And that would complicate things for KU. I don't know if you have enough money to afford him at this point in time. But if you could make it happen, that would be the type of game change in addition to boost your talent, right?

Starting point is 00:13:42 In theory, Stefan Jokasimovich, who's going to probably be a top three pick in the 2020. I forget what he's eligible for, 27 draft, whatever it is. But his agent already shot down him leaving the club. I'd also put Oscar Wembenyama here. Sounds like he's going to be staying overseas as well. So those would be guys to kind of keep an eye on there. Now, solid international wings who are a bit older, you would think can play right away. Augustine U-Bal, he is a 6'7 wing from Spain.

Starting point is 00:14:09 He'll turn 23 this month. And playing in the Spanish ACB, which is arguably the top league in the world, that's not like the Euro League or one of these conglomerations of leagues, right? He was averaging 10.3 points, 3.5 rebounds in 20 minutes per game, shot 47% from the floor, 31 from 3, 84 at the foul line. this would be a really good player to kind of add in, which again would probably be in your top six or seven in the rotation, if not a starter. Now, if we want to move to more guys that would need some development, right, to where if they can hit right away, they can be in the rotation. If not, they can be developmental guys down the road.

Starting point is 00:14:42 Diego Garavaglia, he's a six-foot-six wing playing on a German senior team, lower end of the rotation, but, you know, they were a Euro Cup team as well. And lower stats because of that, but no one as being a strong defender. I mean, after seeing the success that like Karchankov had coming to Arizona from Germany, and Karchankov was only playing 10 minutes per game at the senior level. This dude was playing 13 minutes per game at the senior level. I don't know. Maybe worth kicking tires on, right? Fabian Kaiser, somebody who might be a first round pick down the road.

Starting point is 00:15:11 He's a 6'8 wing from Germany who won't turn 18 until March of 2027. He was playing on the Real Madrid youth team, where he averaged like 10 points per game, 93% at the foul line. And at the Adidas next gen, over six games there, you're talking over 14 points, over five assists, almost five rebounds, three stocks per game on really good shooting splits. 46, 39, 100. Now, he might be the type of guy that wants to come in and play the Tyron Stokes role, so that might not work. But, you know, very talented player. Then you have an Oggin, Serzenek.

Starting point is 00:15:43 I don't know. That's a complicated one. But six-foot-seven wing from Serbia, turn 19 in March, 3.6 points, 3.3 rebounds per game in 14 minutes. it's the senior Adriatic League, which Adriatic League is good. That's a combination of like the Serbian leagues and the Slovenian League and like all the leagues in that kind of area. He was a good shooter at the junior level. Didn't really translate to the senior level, but, you know, might just be small sample size.

Starting point is 00:16:07 Played really well at the Adidas Eurocamp, nine points, over three rounds, over three assists, over two stocks per game, 55% from the floor in just 15 minutes per game in over three games there. Then you have Clark Ludo Wrighthouser. He's a 6-foot-9, 200-pound wing with a near 7-foot wing span. Solid athlete reminds me a little bit of Tristan and Aruna, but I think with a better jump shot right now. I played most of his games at the French youth level, shot 18 points per game, 37% from 3 on high volume. If you're getting Tristan and Aruna with a better jump shot, that could be something for KU, right? And I mean, Aniruna was, what, the eighth-ninth-ninth man on that 1920 team?

Starting point is 00:16:45 So, like, you know, then you have Thomas Tulsi. He is a 6'7-Lafian wing, who will be 19 in September. He was playing for the Spanish basketball league's U-22 Valencia Squad. We're for 12 and 5 per game at the Euro camp, talking 11 points per game, smooth left-e stroke. Like maybe somebody you would bring in to be kind of back into the rotation, spot minutes, three-point shooter, and could develop into something for year two or year three. Some other guys that just to name names, Max Ceperly, 6-7 wing from Slovenia, Michael Sicyto, a 6-foot-6 wing from Spain.

Starting point is 00:17:18 He'll be on the older end. Lev Svhenan, a 6-foot-8 Russian wing, would be more of a developmental guy, as would Diego Niebla, a 6-4-8 wing from Spain. But again, if you're KU and you're just looking to fill your roster, and let's say you can get a big man, and then you're like, let's just find a developmental piece who maybe can impact things a year down the road

Starting point is 00:17:36 or just give us more competition. I don't know. You could do worse than one of these international wings. Let's finish up a little KU football here. the top five most important KU football transfers into the program. That next. We're brought to you by Odu running a business shouldn't feel like you're trying to connect a bunch of systems that were never designed to work together.

Starting point is 00:18:00 One app for accounting, another for inventory, another for sales, and somehow none of them talk to each other. That's where Odo comes in. Odu is an all-in-one business management software that brings every part of your business together in one powerful platform. From sales and accounting to inventory and marketing, Everything works in one place, helping your team move faster, stay organized and focused on growing the business instead of managing software. The best organizations know that success isn't just about talent.

Starting point is 00:18:27 It's about having everyone work toward the same goal. And that is true in sports, just like it is in business. You know, you think of the best years for KU basketball. It feels like everybody is on the same page. From the star of the team to somebody who's on the bench at the end, it seems like there's good chemistry. It seems like the coaching staff knows the exact role of every single place. player, whether it's the top of the head coach, the assistant coaches. And it even goes up to the athletic department too, right?

Starting point is 00:18:53 Like finding the funding to build a roster together, you know, fundraising different things, getting the facilities in tow. It's a little bit of everything. And great organizations win because operations do matter. And that's why you should get Odo. Try it for free at Odo.com slash locked on. That is ODO.O.com slash locked on. Thanks again for joining us on Lockdown, Jayhawks.

Starting point is 00:19:17 We're going to get to our top five most important KU football. football newcomers, and specifically these will be transfers just because we don't know, you know, what freshmen are going to play. Maybe Corey Mockrey will be that guy, right? I should also say this. If Chase Jenkins, the transfer in from Rice wins the quarterback job, he obviously becomes number one on this list. As of right now, I'm expecting Cole Ballard to win the job, so I'm not going to put Chase Jenkins in the top five. But again, if you were, he would be number one. I should also mention, I'm just going to spoil this now, I don't have a single running back in the top five here. And it's not because I don't think the running backs aren't important. They are. Right? You got some questions

Starting point is 00:19:53 at quarterback. They need to rely on running the football. But I just have such trust in Andy Codalnicki. I have such trust in the talent of that running back room. And it's like there's a lot of them I like. I really like Jaylon Dupree's game. Now you had the injury in spring ball. I think Dylan Edwards can have a big season. You're seeing Willis is a fun player, right? Because I like so many of the names in the running back room, that's before you get to a mockery and the coaching and the scheme. I just trust that they're going to have enough there in the running game. So that's why I do not have any in the top five. All right.

Starting point is 00:20:26 Number five for most important, I guess X factors among KU transfers into the program. Corey Gordon. Gordon began his career, Baylor was a couple of year player for the Bears, starter for them at the safety spot, transfers to Louisville where he ends up being a starter for them. He's kind of a solid player.

Starting point is 00:20:42 Wasn't anything too flashy, you know, not somebody who's going to rack up a ton of picks or anything like that, but just a solid player to have. And for KU, they were missing that. Like, KU needed more just solid players, especially on the back end a season ago. Now, can you take a step forward?

Starting point is 00:20:57 Can he go from being solid to being an exceptional player? But at the very least, if he can just be what he has been and give KU a, you know, I don't want to say replacement level player that feels disrespectful and that feels like it's underselling the impact of Gordon. But that would even be a positive for KU. Number four is I have a slashing here, Bam Crouch slash Quincy Davis. The reason why is I don't know who's going to win the job.

Starting point is 00:21:19 Tray Lathen's one of your starters, the other starter, either Bam Crouch or Quincy Davis. Crouch is the transfer from Boston College. Davis is the transfer from New Mexico State. Seems like a tight battle for who's going to win that job. Whoever does and is playing more reps, is playing more snaps and has the bigger role on the team, becomes exceedingly important because for KU, the linebacker spot has been a bugaboo spot for a while. Last year, it was better in certain areas. It was more athletic.

Starting point is 00:21:47 You had some good moments from Bengali, Kamara, and Trey. Lathen, but Camaro was super inconsistent. Missed a lot of tackles, went to the wrong hole at times, and it was just never really on the same page with the defensive line and the linebackers, it felt like, in attacking the running game. Well, that becomes really important this year with one of those guys filling in that spot that can you find improvement from the linebacker position and have KU's best season from the linebacking core, and that would go a long way to helping fix the defense.

Starting point is 00:22:17 Number three on the list is Nick Morrow. Morrow comes in as the Allmac receiver from Buffalo, and he is, to me, the by far number one receiver on this offense. He's somebody I look at and say, okay, you know, you should wind up with seven, 800, 900 yards this season, right? Can he be the first 1,000-yard receiver for KU since the Kerry Meyer, Desmond Briscoe days? Can he be the first 800-yard receiver, I believe, since Stephen Sims?

Starting point is 00:22:41 And then you add into it that you have a really young quarterback, well, not necessarily really young, but an inexperienced quarterback here and maybe some questions on the offensive line, having a go-to receiver goes a long way for KU. And so if, you know, I think I said Nick Morrow, but Nick McMillan, if Nick McMillan can, you know, do what he did, those final nine games at Buffalo and carry that into what he does at KU and can be that impactful receiver, it's going to open up the running game.

Starting point is 00:23:11 It's going to make life so much easier on some of those quarterbacks. Okay, so Nick McMillan in at number three. Number two is another Nick M, Nick Morrow, and he is the right tackle coming in from Cal. I thought he was going to come in to play left tackle. Sounds like he's going to be the right tackle with Clements on the left. And it's interesting because Clements and Morrow are both guys that are similar. They're taller offensive linemen. Clements like 6-7, Morrow, like 6'8, who at times can struggle with speed rushers.

Starting point is 00:23:39 I think part of that is the height that, you know, if you play somebody with a good bend, they have to really get down there to get those guys. and that'll be a big question for Morrow. Can he improve on that? And if you look at the offensive line, if Morrow and Clemens have good seasons, it's going to be an awesome offensive line in my opinion because I like the interior of it.

Starting point is 00:23:57 I think that Amir Herring is a stud at the guard position. Whoever wins the job between Connor Stroh and Tobaki Tuoco-Lovatu, I think will at least be a competent starter for you. With Cason Carpenter, that one remains to be seen. We'll see how that one goes. But if you get good tackle play from both guys, the offensive line is going to be a weapon for KU, and it's going to open up the young quarterback,

Starting point is 00:24:20 make their life so much easier, especially as they're trying to get comfortable. It's going to open up the running game. The flip side, if Morrow's getting beat a lot, if Clements is getting beat a lot, what does that do for a quarterback position we already have questions about? So I have Nick Morrow in at number two.

Starting point is 00:24:37 Number one on the list, though, is actually Eamon Smalls. And, you know, had Trayvon McAlpine not gotten hurt in Springball, I don't know if Smaller, would have been on this list. But now that McAlpine has hurt, and I think McAlpine was who I was projecting to start next to Blake Harold at the defensive tackle spot,

Starting point is 00:24:53 not just start being an impactful player on the defensive end. You know, McAlpine, we don't know how much time he's going to miss. Could it be a full season? Could it be half the season? We don't entirely know. Well, that's an opportunity for Eam and Small. So we had some good production at UAB a season ago, but can he carry that over to Big 12 play.

Starting point is 00:25:11 And if he can, if he can be a good starting D tackle in the Big 12, that goes a long way for KU being a better run defense in general. That goes a long way to KU being able to overcome the loss of Trayvon McAlpine versus if there are some struggles jumping up, then you start looking and you're like, okay, now our depth of defense tackles tested a lot more than I thought it was going to be when we initially added Smalls and McAlpine to the fold. So you look at the KU defense needing to be better in general.

Starting point is 00:25:36 Even Small is going to have a big hand in that and a big body in that and trying to plug the run up the middle. All right, let it'll do for this episode of Lockdown, Jayhawks, You can find our show anywhere, your podcast, including on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe to the show. See you next time.

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - TALENT OVER EXPERIENCE? Will Tyran Stokes Help Bill Self Shake Theory He Needs Older Players?

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.