Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - UNDERRATED: Keanu Dawes Set for All-Big 12 Season - What Would it Mean for the Kansas Jayhawks?

Starting point is 00:00:01 I don't think it's out of this world that Keanu Dawes would be an all-American this season for KU. I am very high on his game. Let's break him down. You are Locked on Jayhawks. Your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks. Part of the Locked-On Podcast Network, your team every day. What's up? Derek Johnson here.

Starting point is 00:00:28 Today's episode brought to you by Kalshi for a limited time. Download the Kalshi app and use code locked on. And you can get up to a $500 bonus credit when you trade just $25. On today's episode, we're going to be breaking out our player deep dive of Keanu Dawes, what he brings to the table, his potential ceiling and floor outcome. And we're going to try to get to some, because I was trying to think back to like KU comps. Who does this guy most remind me of a KU player? And I was having trouble finding the right answer.

Starting point is 00:00:59 So we're going to go through kind of a list here and try to get to an answer. Maybe there's not an answer is kind of the number there. So anyway, Keanu Daz is a 6'9, 225 pound forward, originally from Houston, Texas. He is going to be a fourth year player. Normally would be a true senior, but because of the advent of the five and five, he now becomes a player that potentially give Kansas two years, which makes this even more exciting because I do think there is a very high potential for what Daws can be this season, which to me feels like somebody that can be an all big 12 level player.

Starting point is 00:01:31 And then, you know, that step is not super far. away from being an all-American. But like, you know, if we're talking just from a standpoint of like, if Kansas ends up being, you know, one of the top, I don't know, eight teams in the country, right? There are one or two on the seed line come the NCAA tournament. And Dawes ends up second on KU and points and leads Kansas and rebounds per game and he's doing so efficiently shooting the three ball well, you know, why can't that be an all-big 12 player? Why can't that be a third team all-American or an all-American honorable mention, you know? But he was a high-rated three-star coming out of high school, goes to Rice out of high school where he spends one year with the Owls after making the

Starting point is 00:02:09 All-American Athletic Conference freshman team. He bounces to Utah where he's playing about 18, 19 minutes per game. His first year had a really weird game against Kansas where he's grabbing all the rebounds, not scoring any points, but they upset Kansas when he's at Utah that first year. And then this past season, he comes in now and Fieldhouse plays really well and ends up fourth in the Big 12 in rebounding this past season for the Utes. And it was not. a very good Utah team, but just because you're on a bad team doesn't make every single player bad. He was somebody who was very impactful despite it not being the best team in the world, which makes you feel good about him translating up to a better team.

Starting point is 00:02:46 And the fact of the matter is he was able to produce at a high level in Big 12 play, which is obviously nice because you don't have to worry too much about the transition, translation if you're can't. I mean, when you're talking best transfers in the Bill Self era, Kevin McCuller is certainly in the discussion. And that was a big, I mean, if Kevin. doesn't get hurt his second year at Kansas and finishes out what wound up being an all-American season for him. Who knows if he would be the number one guy on that list. But, you know, that was a big 12 transfer, somebody that was able to work right away and that Bill Self was able to have

Starting point is 00:03:17 trust for right away because they'd been through the big 12, you know, rigors. And for Dawes, you're talking about 12 and a half points per game, 8.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists per game, and 0.9 stocks per game. So lower there than you'd like on 55% from the floor, 32% from 3,000. and 72% at the foul line. Awesome metrics for Keanu-Daz. You're talking 89th percentile in offensive RAPM, 78th percentile in defensive RAPM. He was in the 82nd percentile in offensive windchairs per 40.

Starting point is 00:03:49 Only the 21st percentile in defensive windchairs per 40. That's where those lack of steals and blocks come in. He was in the 83rd percentile in P.E.R. And then the 89th percentile in wins above replacement player. If you're looking at Evan Miakawa's site, among the 133 qualified Big 12 players. He was the 39th best player in the Big 12. That would put him in the 71st percentile,

Starting point is 00:04:11 which is even better considering that a lot of times those sites do have an influence from a team perspective. So the fact that Utah was so bad and he still wound up, you know, in the top third of the league is pretty impressive, right? But specifically he was in the 80th percentile for Evan Miyakawa's offensive BPR and slightly below average on the defensive side there. Now, when you look at Big 12 only play this season, to get the best possibly snapshot of what you're looking at for the adjustment to competition.

Starting point is 00:04:38 You're talking 12.6 points, 8.5 rebounds, 1.7 assists per game on 51% from the floor, 37% from 3 in Big 12 play this past season for Keanu-Daz. That's very exciting. It was over three takes per game, too. And he was 71% on free throws that obviously included that big game coming into Lawrence, where he had 22 points and 12 rebounds and consistently ate Bryson Tillers lunch that day. Um, you know, if, if Keanu Dawes was just staying at Utah, what would be his expectations statistically? You know, another year better.

Starting point is 00:05:12 Would he be expected to be averaging 15 and 10 per game there with another year under his belt? So now you look at Kansas, there's certain things that are going to make that more difficult, right? Other good players are going to have the ball in their hand and have a chance to produce, but also maybe, you know, some of those good players around you can open certain things up for you. So, um, the thing that I keep coming back to. is this. The team at Utah was so much better when he was on the floor. Utah was 17 points better per 100 possessions when Dawes was out there. That gave him a 94th percentile on off-net rating. Even in Big 12 play, if you just want to say, okay, but did he just, you know, rack up on

Starting point is 00:05:51 the little guys? No, even if we just look at Big 12 only games, Utah was 17 points better per 100 possessions when Keanu Dawes was on the floor. So like they were a competent Big 12 team when Keanu Dawes was out there. They were a disaster when he was not out there, right? So the three biggest strengths for Keanu Dawes. One is defensive rebounding. He was in the 98th percentile this past season in defensive rebound rate, one of the best defensive rebounders in the entire country. And like, it wasn't just like him individually gobbling them up. It was the team impact. As a team when he was on the floor, Utah's defensive rebound rate was about 4% better. That is a gigantic jump for one guy to have on a team defensive rebound rate.

Starting point is 00:06:33 Scoring on the interior, he shot almost 73% at the rim and 57% of those makes were assisted. So just to show you out of comparison, Flory Budunga shot 72.5% at the rim. So Dawes shot better at the rim than Flory Bodunga, who's basically only taking dunks, 65% of Florey's makes were assisted. So Dawes shot better at the rim and a lot less of his makes were assisted, meaning he's having to do more of them himself. So this is a very good finisher at the rim, right? He also shot 56% on short mid-range.

Starting point is 00:07:09 So he does have the ability to hit a little floater or a hook shot or hit if he's, you know, five, six feet away from the rim more often than we saw from, say, Bryson Tiller or Florida Bedunga down low for Kansas last season. And then finally, for the biggest strengths here, he's a very well-balanced player, I would say, right? He didn't have a single play style that, rated out in the 60th percentile of frequency or higher. So basically he's not doing, he's not just like spamming one thing. He's not spamming one play style. He's doing a little bit of everything and he's doing it well. Like he had below average frequency. Again, just how often

Starting point is 00:07:48 he's doing it. But if you're talking about all of these in terms of effectiveness, 86th percentile as a perimeter cutter. Ninety third percentile is a big cutter and roller. Seventy third percentile in transition despite again low volume 90th percentile in efficiency on inside out game on more toward average frequency of doing it he just does a lot of things well doesn't have to rely on one or two things that makes him hard to scout against and will make him a perfect blend for whatever lineup kansas wants to throw him out there and however you need to play him based on who else is out on the floor and that is really exciting right now the two biggest question marks here i think one is defense again you go back and look at some of the defensive metrics you're talking below

Starting point is 00:08:30 average to poor, depending on which one you kind of look at from a team perspective. Um, the Hakeem rate, which is steel plus block rate was only in the 11th percentile last season, right? So it doesn't create activity on the defensive end with steals or blocks. I think, uh, the way I view it, like he's a strong player. He's a good up and down athlete. I think he can be a good one-on-one like post defender. He's not really going to get blocks. he's not really going to be the most agile defender if he gets switched onto a guard necessarily. I think I would look at it as this.

Starting point is 00:09:05 Can he just be an average defender this year for KU? It's not really going to come with like shot blocks and stuff. And the thing is with as good of a defensive rebounder as he is, that is going to raise his floor on the defensive end of the floor because you are going to have somebody who finishes the defensive possession by grabbing the rebound. And the fact of the matter, by having Paul M. Bia or Christian Reeves at the five, those are good rim protectors to be able to cover up for some of that a little bit more than what he was playing with at Utah.

Starting point is 00:09:32 So that's kind of the big question for me. What is the defense? If it can be average, I think that's a win for KU. If it's above average, that's a home run for KU. If it's below average, I think that's fine. If it's bad, that's where you start running into issues, right? And then the other biggest question mark here is, I would say he doesn't really win the possession battle offensively, right? Defensively, he grabs all those rebounds and everything.

Starting point is 00:09:53 offensively doesn't really win the possession battle, right? He's actually about an average offensive rebounder, and he's a below average turnover guy. So it doesn't really help you with the possession game offensively necessarily, but I don't know, that feels like a small nitpick to have over somebody, which it kind of is, which tells you why I'm very high on Keanu Daw's game, right? One final thought here, though, for Dawes, I am expecting a really big year.

Starting point is 00:10:20 And part of the reason why is I'm expecting a big year for me. three point range. You're talking about somebody who you look at the season long numbers. He's shooting close to 32%. But we just saw Trey White shooting like 32% in his year coming in. And he just shot like 40% from Kansas. I'm not saying you can expect that for everybody who's coming into their senior year to just transfer into Kansas and have a glow up. But we do see it happen. And from the Dawes perspective, what gives me hope is that he shot 37% in Big 12 play on over three attempts per game. So that is a big enough sample to make you think that he is improving as a three-point shooter.

Starting point is 00:10:54 And enough so that over the off-season, he was working with, I think it's Phil Beckner, is the name of the trainer. The guy that Ota Agbosje was working with between his junior and senior seasons and long-time trainer of like Damian Lillard to work on his three-point shot over the off-season, which makes me think it's a priority for him and that he is going to continue to shoot well from three. And if he ends up shooting 36, 37 percent from three, it's huge for Kansas in terms of spacing the floor as a team.

Starting point is 00:11:19 It's also huge for Keanu Daw's game and therefore KU's game. and I'm expecting that to happen, and that is why I am expecting Keanu Daws to be an all big 12 player for KU when it's all said and done. All right. Let's get to our ceiling versus floor debate. Then we'll get into some, what would be the player cop for Keanu Daws

Starting point is 00:11:34 of past KU players that next. Our episode of the show is brought to you by Indeed sponsor jobs. When workplace chaos hits, you need the right hire. And Indeed, sponsor jobs helps you connect with employers and candidates who match specific needs, like skills,

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Starting point is 00:13:05 sponsored jobs. Thanks you for joining us here on Lockdown Jayhawks. And what is the possible role this year for Keanu Dawes? What is the ceiling? What is the floor outcome? Well, let's start with the possible floor outcome here. And I think the floor outcome would have to come from him struggling defense. right? Like some of those defensive questions come to fruition. Um, the thing is he would still be

Starting point is 00:13:33 playing a lot for Kansas. I don't know what other option you're going to have. It would just be something you'd have to kind of live through. Um, but that would kind of limit his impact overall. And that would kind of limit the team impact for Kansas specifically. The other way the floor outcome happens about is that the three point shot doesn't come around and he does end up being, you know, high 20s, low 30% from three where, you know, again, he's still, a productive player, but then maybe you're not looking at all big 12 level guy. You're just looking at a solid role player for you, right? And that, even in that outcome, he's still playing 25 minutes plus per game, right?

Starting point is 00:14:10 And still producing probably a pretty decent amount, you know? Now, I think the ceiling outcome, the more exciting outcome here, right, is he does wind up like he does shoot 36, 37, 38 percent, taking, you know, two and a half, three, three, threes per game for Kansas this season. And he is able to be a good post score and just dunks everything around the rim. He's an exciting player who has a level of toughness that Bill Self and the fans love. And he does end up second on KU and scoring. Tyron Soakes leads KU, you know, around that 17 to 20 range, Daz is around that 14 to 15 point per game range. And with as good of a defensive rebounder as he is, he's able to average double-digit rebounds per game or at least

Starting point is 00:14:55 close like nine, 10 rebounds per game. He's able to get a couple assists per game as a good passer, which is, you know, definitely in the realm of possibility what he showed. And he's at least an average defender. You do all that. You were an all big 12 level player. KU winds up a top 10 team. And maybe you do get consideration for some level of all American, you know, even if it's

Starting point is 00:15:15 honorable mention. And so much so that like the ceiling outcome is that he doesn't stay at Kansas for another year after this because he gets he's a second round pick in the NBA draft. I think that's entirely possible when you look at his frame, his rebounding ability. Like I said, if the defense is at least there enough, if three point shots there enough, and he has a good season on a winning team, I don't see why he couldn't be like a second round draft pick, you know, come another year from now, right? So my predicted role, I figure he'll be the starting four man all year long.

Starting point is 00:15:47 I do think he's going to play some small ball five. We haven't really discussed that a ton here. but over the last 10 games for Utah this past season, he was like primarily their center over this season. And the plus minus, the on-off net rating, it wasn't quite the plus 17. I think it was like a plus 12 or something. So he was still very impactful as a center.

Starting point is 00:16:07 I think he's better as a four, but he can still be better. And like there's a chance that KU's best lineup actually is Keanu Dawes at the five with Stokes at the four. Now, yes, maybe you have some questions about rim protection. I do think Stokes can protect the rim at least as a weak side shot blocker. but, you know, what if we come to a world where a lineup of Dawes at the 5, Stokes at the 4, is just this lineup that opens up so much spacing and is unstoppable offensively,

Starting point is 00:16:33 where you have, you know, between Kinney, Blyden, Rosario, Parker, whatever mash you want to go with of those guys at the 1 through 3, and you just have a lot of shooting and spacing on the floor. Like, that is entirely possible. So I'm kind of penciling in right now, Dawes, for, you know, a handful of minutes. per game is a small ball five but um i'm open to the idea that it does wind up being this kind of like death lineup for k u in a way but he plays a little bit of those he ends up leading k u and rebounding i think top three on the team and points per game um to me stokes is the favorite i

Starting point is 00:17:06 think after that i would probably say either dawes or blighton um and then he shoots 12 from three he's on a winning team he's like a third team all big 12 level play or something like that getting draft buzz potentially i have very high hope hopes. I have very high expectations for Keanu Daz is going to be this season. I think he's going to reach those. And I think it's a combination of the skill set. I think it's a combination of being kind of a hidden talent on a not great team this past season that he's been slept on a little bit. I think it's a combination of he seems like a Bill Self guy. He seems to have the right traits and physicality that Bill Self is going to be endeared to where he's going to play a lot

Starting point is 00:17:45 of minutes. And yeah, I just think he's a very underrated basketball player. So I'm really excited to see what Dawes can do this season for KU. Who does he remind me of among past KU players? Let's get to that because that's a little more complicated of a question. Next. Our episode today is brought to you by Game Time. There are more live events than ever worth seeing right now. Games, concerts, comedy shows, festivals.

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Starting point is 00:20:33 Event contract trading involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Talshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. Prices, values, and available markets may differ from those mentioned. For more information, see Kalshi.com slash regulatory. Thanks you for joining us here on Locked on Jayhawks. All right, let's try to come up with a good comp for Keanu Daz because I was struggling with this, right? You think of a four man for KU that can also play the five,

Starting point is 00:21:00 that is really physical, that's an elite rebounder, that can stretch out and hit a three, decent passer, good athlete likes to dunk everything. I kind of think Daws is like, like, there's pieces that other KU players have had here that have played the four for the Jayhawks, but like, okay, like KJ Adams from a, I want to dunk everything perspective,

Starting point is 00:21:21 can be similar to Dawes, but like, Dawes is a way better defensive rebounder. He's bigger. He has more to his offensive game. He can shoot, like, that's not really a great comparison. Jalen Wilson, okay, you would say, okay, there's some good comms there. Jalen Wilson, great defensive rebounder.

Starting point is 00:21:36 Same with Keanu Dawes. You know, from Wilson's perspective, like to attack the rim. Dawes does two, kind of in a different way. They can both stretch out and hit a three a little bit. But Wilson's more of like a wing who could handle the ball. That's not as much Daw's game, you know? then you go back and I think the two that are maybe, I don't know, it's really one that came up to me that I think is most apt.

Starting point is 00:21:58 Like another one that maybe you could question is like, okay, what about like Thomas Robinson, right? You're talking about elite defensive rebounder. Thomas Robinson was an elite defensive rebounder even to another level, but T. Rob was a much better offensive rebounder than Dawes is. And, you know, even though Dawes, like T. Rob wasn't a great rim protector, but he still was like double the block rate that Dawes has. right and t rob is more of like an inside ferocious finisher who didn't really shoot threes so again like

Starting point is 00:22:27 i don't really see that comp either i think the comp that that i found most interesting and this is actually if you go to like ken palm they have some similar um player seasons and if you go to keanu da's sophomore season at utah one of the the common um names that pops up is actually marquif morris from 2010. Now again, that's from his sophomore season, and he's been a little bit of a different players as a junior, but some similar principles. And actually looking back, like, there's some things that make sense here, right? Keanu Dawes was listed at 6'9-232 as a junior, well, or Markief Morris was, excuse me, Keanu Dawes is listed at 6,9, 225. So you have similar kind of, you know, heightened and weight what you're talking about there. Keanu Dawes, somebody who had last season, about a 63

Starting point is 00:23:16 true shooting percentage. Markief Morris, his final season at Kansas, had a 64% true shooting percentage. Markief had a 25% defensive rebounding rate his final season at Kansas. What Keanu-Daz last year at Utah was 25.8. Now, Markief Morris, like, double the offensive rebound rate, much better offensive rebounder. But, you know, the assist rates and the turnover rates are kind of similar between the two. Markief also much better rim protector.

Starting point is 00:23:43 But you also look at Markief and you say, hey, he's somebody who could finish at the rim, had a little bit of a post game to him, but he also could step out and make a three. He took 59 threes. His final season in Kansas made 42% of them. Now, I expect Dawes to take more than that amount of threes, probably a lower percentage. But I think that might be the most apt comparison, but even then it's not a fully great one because like Marquif Morris was a lottery pick. And I don't think Keanu Dawes is a lottery pick.

Starting point is 00:24:10 I think the real answer is that Keanu Dawes is unlike a lot of players that we've seen for Bill Self as a foreman. You know, and I'm excited by that. I think it makes it a little bit more unique. There are certain things you can draw from from other players, but there's not just a great overall comp to look back to. So I'm very interested to see how Bill Self uses him. But yeah, I mean, there's other guys that have some similarities to their games. And I do think that was probably the most apt with the Markief Morris one.

Starting point is 00:24:35 Again, just player archetypes, not saying they're the same, you know, level. But I do think Keanu Daw is going to have a really good season. All right, that'll do it for this episode, of Lockdown Jayhawks. You can find our show anywhere you get your podcast, including on our YouTube. page where you can like and subscribe to the show see you next time

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - UNDERRATED: Keanu Dawes Set for All-Big 12 Season - What Would it Mean for the Kansas Jayhawks?

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