Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - What is Kansas Jayhawks Basketball's Ceiling + Curse of Preseason AP #1 for KU

Starting point is 00:00:00 On today's Locked on Jayhawks, biggest takeaways from the last two games of KU without Kevin McCuller. What is this Kansas team ceiling? You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. I'm Derek Johnson. Thanks for making Locked on Jayhawks your first listen every day. You can find us anywhere you get your podcasts, including on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe to the show.

Starting point is 00:00:37 We're joined by Nick Schwert on today's episode. Give him a follow at Nick underscore Schwert. Give me a follow at DJhawksonradio. I'm going to try to make it through this one with the losing voice. Happy Valentine's Day to anybody celebrating that and everything. First, we are brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. Before we get into our action, talking biggest takeaways,

Starting point is 00:00:52 ceiling of this team and the curse of preseason. Number one for KU before we get to stat line is anyway, FanDuel Sportsbook. You can make every moment more new customers join today and you'll get $150 in bonus bets. If your first bet of $5 or more wins, visit fanduel.com slash locked on to get started. So KU gets trounced by Texas Tech, 29-point outing. And I've kind of been on this train of comparing this team to the 2018-2019 team

Starting point is 00:01:21 for a while now. I think a lot of people caught up with that in this game to Texas Tech. They lose in Lubbock by 29, same deficit they lost by in 2018-2019 team for a while now. I think a lot of people caught up with that in this game to Texas Tech. They lose in Lubbock by 29, same deficit they lost by in 2018-2019. No Kevin Kohler the last two games, though, so there is tangible enough difference to be like, well, what if you get him back? But you have not been a big Kevin Kohler guy, and I wanted to get to the roots of this because I saw you post something

Starting point is 00:01:43 about this on social media, but I wanted to kind of dig in a little bit further there. What is wrong with this team? Does it matter that Kevin McCullough has been out these last couple games? I guess take the floor. No, I don't think it's like I'm not trying to make it as in he's the issue. He's one of the top two players on this team. He's a top 10 player in college basketball.

Starting point is 00:02:04 He's an All-American. He is very players on this team he's a top 10 player in college basketball he's an all-american like he is very important to this team i think what i probably did a poor job of explaining and where i'm kind of at is it's more about like you take on the identity of your best players i think a lot of times um whoever your leaders, the guys who are at the top of the program, who have been there the longest, who are the most experienced, who are the best, other guys, the young guys, are going to look to them for guidance and experience. And I get that this is one of those things where when everything starts to go wrong, you start to just kind of find problems that may not be there because we're all looking for a solution. We're all trying to figure out what's the crux of why Kansas is struggling and where do we get there?

Starting point is 00:02:53 I think both things can be true. Somebody like Kevin McCullough can be a great player and be one of your best players and be very important for your team's success, while also acknowledging that maybe there is a problem in leadership maybe there isn't a guy on that court who can be sort of the alpha who can be the guy to say no this is what we're going to do this is how we're going to win maybe some of it's like pseudo sports psychology which i shouldn't be getting into of like reading body language, reading how guys talk to other players. How do you react to calls that you don't agree with? Like some of that's like when you're not winning, like body language, isn't going to be good. There's nobody

Starting point is 00:03:34 out who's just like, yeah, this is great. This is awesome. So I totally understand that, but I think I'm kind of to the point now where I'm, I'm overanalyzing and finding things that aren't there because I just can't figure out why this team that has a lot of talent just continues to flounder on the road. How do you go from beating Houston as badly as you did at home, and then two days later you look like you looked against Kansas State? And we can just rinse and repeat that same question week after week after week with this team look great at home look terrible on the road I don't know what gives so one thing I think is interesting here right now this Kansas team is ranked 19th on Ken Palm and if it finished that way that would be the second worst team that

Starting point is 00:04:20 Biltzoff has had by that metric in his time at KU. The only one worse would be that 2021 team, which was actually ranked 18th, so ahead of this one, until the blowout loss to USC. So this would be one of the worst teams, which is weird because I think you could almost make an argument this might be a top, I don't know, top third, maybe starting five that Bill Self has had in his time at KU. And so it's weird when I'm discussing, like, what is this team's ceiling, as much as I've compared it to maybe the 2018-2019 team, which, to be clear, that team also had some top wins. They beat Michigan State, who finished third in Ken Palm.

Starting point is 00:04:55 They beat Tennessee, who finished 10th in Ken Palm that year. They had wins over – a couple wins over Texas, who was top 25. Iowa State, they beat, who was top 15 in Ken Palm. They beat Texas Tech, who finished fifth in Ken Palm that year, by 16 points. They beat Kansas State by 15 points. They finished top 20 in Ken Palm. Like, that team had some big wins, similar to this one did. And you look at some of the comparisons with road struggles versus home splits.

Starting point is 00:05:22 You had a big man who was a really good college player, but more of a college player, lumbering big man, Dedrick versus, you know, Hunter here, some young players bench didn't come together. I think there are comparisons there yet.

Starting point is 00:05:32 I continue to be drawn to the idea that this team was never built for the regular season with the lack of depth that they have. This team is more of a post-season team. And so if you're viewing it as just get kevin healthy for the ncaa tournament who cares what happens now i know that is so so conflicting to what we have learned with bill self and with winning big 12 titles but the streak isn't a thing anymore and if you get a three seed but then get everybody healthy that's almost worth worth more than this year's team you know limping their way to somehow winning a big 12 title where you played Kevin

Starting point is 00:06:11 McCuller through the injury I don't know I guess what I'm basically saying is I feel like the ceiling of this team is still like final four good I don't know that I picked them to win a national title but if I'm picking them that far, then I guess what's the difference. So what do you view the ceiling to be this team of like, what do you think would signify a good run in NCAA tournament play? And what do you think is a realistic, like as far as they can go? You see, that's,

Starting point is 00:06:37 that's, that's difficult for me to answer to say what's the ceiling versus what's realistic because the ceiling is probably higher than what I think is realistic, right? The ceiling is a final four run. What I think is realistic is probably sweet 16 right make it to the second weekend I I said this on a on our podcast a couple of nights ago right after the game that you look specifically at this offense and the game against Texas Tech, that was worst offensive

Starting point is 00:07:06 performance combined with worst defensive performance. What's it look like? There's your answer. But specifically with the offense, you don't shoot threes. You don't get offensive rebounds. So you don't create extra possessions. You don't get to the free throw line, so you're not creating extra points there. You do one thing well. You score inside very efficiently. What happens when you don't do that? Which is basically to say what happens when you don't have Hunter Dickinson? And he's had two bad offensive nights in a row.

Starting point is 00:07:39 I'm not putting it on him, but this is what happens. This is what happens when the one thing you can hang your hat on isn't there for you. Then all of a sudden you'd look very, very average. Isn't that weird though? Isn't that weird? Like, isn't it one thing to be like, Hey, Devante Graham went two of 10 from three tonight. Just didn't have it. Isn't it weird to have that happen from like at the rim? But, but think about it. You, you watch this team play and you see how other teams attack them defensively. We're going to throw two bodies. If you,

Starting point is 00:08:08 if you even look Hunter Dickinson's way, we're putting two bodies on him. And unfortunately, like in years past, when KU's had really good offensive, big man guys who are great out of the post-up it's, Oh, you're going to double team me.

Starting point is 00:08:25 Boom. I'm going to hit this guy. He's going to knock down a three. I'm going to kick it out. You're going to overhelp. And then this guy's going to drive in and score at the rim. This team doesn't have the athletes on the perimeter to get inside and score. They don't have the shooters to keep defenses honest. There isn't a good plan B for this offense. I think the other thing about it is when you think about how Hunter Dickinson scores, Bill Self, we know great at getting post touches. Post-ups, even though like somebody told me, he's in the 99th percentile in post-up efficiency, which is like, Hey, they're really good at this. That's great.

Starting point is 00:09:01 But post-ups in the Pantheon of basketball shots are one of the least efficient ways to score. So the thing that you're really good at isn't the best thing to be really good at. You'd much rather have a team that's really good at knocking down open threes or getting transition opportunities, easy layups at the rim. There's a difference between the way that Hunter Dickinson scores and getting an uncontested layup, right? So it's not that this team is terrible offensively. It's that their margin for error is so razor thin because there is no good answer to what happens when defenses take that thing away with that thing being Hunter Dickinson. What is the answer?

Starting point is 00:09:40 If the answer is like Kevin McCuller knocking down threes, that's kind of hit or miss, or like getting open shots at the rim, who does it? Like who's the guy you trust when the main thing isn't working for you? And we're a month left in the season, and I don't think anybody has a good answer for that. All right, let's talk about where KU went wrong then, and maybe this curse of being preseason number one for KU, whose stat line is in any way still to come.

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Starting point is 00:10:35 Just visit fanduel.com slash locked on and shoot your shot. FanDuel, official sportsbook partner of the NBA. All right. KU has a weird thing going on when they're preseason number one. I don't know if you've looked at this, but I was going back and – I can think of two. I can think of two teams. Oh, there's more.

Starting point is 00:10:58 There's more. So since 2004, there have been 20 preseason number one teams. I guess 21, but I'm not going to count the one of whoever it was the year that the NCAA tournament was canceled. I think that might have been Michigan State that year. I can't remember. It doesn't matter. Didn't have an NCAA tournament, so I'm not going to apply that to the data. So for the teams that have not been named KU over the last two decades who have been preseason AP number one,

Starting point is 00:11:26 13 of the 15 made the second weekend of the NCAA tournament. And seven of the 15 made it to a final four. So you have this, this large group of teams who when they are preseason number one, they're like really good, which I don't I mean I I know you know us as as media and people who predict things like we're not good at predicting things but like that's actually a very good track record you know and so for the the most part it has worked for teams but for Kansas they've been at three times this is their fourth in the last two decades they've never made a second weekend as the preseason number one so okay let

Starting point is 00:12:13 me let me guess here let me guess here so yeah one of those years was the year with wiggins and right they were preseason number one that season in 2014 no they were not that year okay well i know i can i know 2019 they were with diedrich and grimes and dots and all those guys um when else were they 2009 2010 i mean 2010 2009 to 2010 now that one i do feel a little cheap little cheap. Well, yeah, cause that was a great, that was a great team. They just got sniped. That was just a NCAA tournament. Weird thing.

Starting point is 00:12:49 Right. So who's, what's the other one? 2015 or something. The other one was self second year. They were, it was Oh four Oh five. And they ended up losing in the first round.

Starting point is 00:12:58 That was a team where the wheels kind of fell off at the end. Like they were really, really good all season long. And then they kind of came apart down the stretch. Like they'd lost a bunch of games at the end like they were really really good all season long and then they kind of came apart down the stretch like they'd lost a bunch of games at the end of regular season um i can't remember if simeon was injured i feel like he was always injured um sorry i kind of just jumped in was there a question there i just know i mean like do you make anything of that is is there something to the idea that when these other teams are getting pre- number one, there's something different than what KU is doing?

Starting point is 00:13:27 Like the years that they've been preseason number one, is there something you look at and you're like, well, maybe that's a little bit of fool's gold or I don't know. Is that just bad luck? I don't know. Well, if I think of 2024 and 2019, like that to me is more apt because 2010, that team was really great.

Starting point is 00:13:47 They had a bad game in the tournament. I don't think there's anything to learn about that team. Like, Oh, they weren't as good as we thought. No, we got four months of them being one of the best teams in the country. So,

Starting point is 00:13:56 and they were, they were number one in the tournament, right? They were number one overall seed in the tournament. Like at no point was anybody like this team's not any good. A 2005. That was an experienced team i think the easiest thing to point to would just be it was bill self second year and you go talk to some of those guys go talk to keith langford go talk to wayne wintemann doesn't really talk like this anymore but he used to um those guys didn't like Bill Self like it's very obvious they were run and gun fastest team in the country under Roy Williams in comes Bill Self was like yeah

Starting point is 00:14:34 none of that anymore we're gonna play defense that's not what we came here to do coach like so I want to push that one aside like Like those guys did not like Keith Langford. Derek, when we were working together, we'd keep laying around the show. And I asked him, I go, if you could have done anything over, what would you have done? And he said, I would have left earlier. He said, I would have left after my junior year. I mean, come on. So push that aside.

Starting point is 00:14:58 Let's just compare this to the 2019 team, because that's really what this is about. Like we can do the preseason number one, but even if you're're doing that you think about it like you're just comparing four different teams we can we can lump in all the other teams but really what are the common factors here with the four kansas teams and with this team and that 2019 team a lot of nice pieces on paper didn't end up being as nice when you put them on the court not just pieces on paper didn't end up being as nice when you put them on the court not just pieces on paper player acquisitions right transfers coming in freshmen coming in KJ Lawson Charlie Moore right guys that didn't hit this year it's Elmarco Jackson Nick Timberlake I think sometimes we get caught up in shiny new thing and it's not always better yeah it's like guys you thought were gonna

Starting point is 00:15:44 be special. And I think the biggest one is on Marco Jackson. I'm not trying to put this on him, but because you lost arterial Morris, who you thought was going to be even better than on Marco Jackson, but you go out and you get a McDonald's all American and they don't end up being the dude you thought you were going to get. It's a big,

Starting point is 00:16:03 it's not nothing. That's not just like, Oh oh yeah the freshman's not good right away it's like we have this expectation now mcdonald's all-american he was getting one and done love before the season you just expect them to be key pieces should we anymore though because think about the track record now i'll mark yeah no i know mj rice year before what bryce thompson year before earnest Bryce Thompson year before. Ernest Uday. Ernest Uday was a McDonald's owner. It feels like there's at least one every year that's going to overperform,

Starting point is 00:16:32 like maybe a Christian Brown this year or Johnny Furphy, and then there's one every year that's going to way underperform. I think you just go into the offseason expecting that now. Yeah, I think there's something to, because I think about the, what the best ones, the best one and done. So the best freshmen, um,

Starting point is 00:16:52 Grady's honestly up there. Sure. Grady last year, but Josh Jackson for me is number one. Andrew Wiggins was great. Ben McLemore was great, even though he had been in the system for a year. Um, I mean,

Starting point is 00:17:03 like God, if you could, if you had Kelly Oubre on this team, you know what you would kill to have a guy like Kelly Oubre, who we don't think of as being one of the better ones. I think there are certain players where their talent is just so high that it's going to shine through. I think for a lot of these guys,

Starting point is 00:17:16 it's like, maybe they're not as good as we thought they were going to be. Because I would also argue Derek that like most of the guys who transfer after one year at Kansas, Quentin Grimes is the exception of the dudes who go on to have success elsewhere. Most of these guys, they just go on and it's like, you missed. You missed. The guy wasn't a McDonald's All-American.

Starting point is 00:17:38 He wasn't a one and done candidate. He just wasn't that good. I'll be honest. I shared this take the other day. And now we're kind of getting off topic. I shared this take the other day and I, and I said to the person I was talking to, I said, this is probably the worst time for me to debut this take. But in the midst of that drubbing down in Lubbock on Monday night, I found myself walking away from that game saying,

Starting point is 00:17:59 you know what? I kind of like what I saw from El Marco. He was getting to a spot. He was knocking down a couple of those jumpers. And I think what it really is more than anything else is you do see sometimes, even though he doesn't hit many shots, like he met, you do see what he has that the other guys don't like. He has that quick first step, get past his guy, pull up from 18 feet. Now he's laid a lot of bricks doing that, but that truthfully, Derek, like that's the skill set that this team needs. Oh, Hunter double teamed has to kick it out. Now there's 10 seconds on the clock. Somebody's just going to beat their man one-on-one and get to a spot and knock down a jumper. He's the only guy who really has the quickness, the explosiveness to do that.

Starting point is 00:18:43 Unfortunately, he just can't execute it. So I think what I really found by watching him on Monday night was just like going back to the original question, like what's this team ceiling? The ceiling is a final four, but like you can't have him be a zero. You can't have him be a negative. Like that guy push aside Nicholas Timberlake. I never thought he was going to be a dude like Towson. Oh,

Starting point is 00:19:08 you like to shoot threes and not play defense. Good luck playing for bill self, but like your best players have to be your best players. I think El Marco is still one of the most skilled players on this team. He's probably in his head at this point, but if you can get something out of him, I think that kind of changes the outlook for what this team can do in March. All right, let's finish up.

Starting point is 00:19:27 Whose stat line is it anyway? First, we are brought to you by GameTime. Buying tickets to your favorite sporting event should not be stressful. With GameTime, you can get fast and easy tickets to all your favorite events, whether it's sports, music, comedy, theater near you. They have killer deals on last-minute tickets, and their lowest price guarantee means you can stop stressing over buying the tickets, start getting hyped for the fun

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Starting point is 00:20:16 download game time today last minute tickets lowest price guaranteed guaranteed finishing things up whose stat line is it anyway first up this player has a 21.3 free throw rate which ranks 39th among 48 qualified big 12 players i think i know this i don't know the exact number but i tweeted about this during the game so i'm just going to go with my gut is it hunter dickinson it is hunterinson. And it felt like Bill Self's technical was about this. It's honestly shocking that a guy who gets as many touches as he does and beyond that gets his double teamed, gets played as defensively as he does, doesn't get calls. Now don't take this as me saying he's getting screwed over. Why aren't they calling more fouls on him? I know a lot of people are having that take, and I'm not even

Starting point is 00:21:09 saying that's necessarily wrong. It's just shocking to see the numbers. Like for a guy who gets as many touches as he does and plays the way he does, you just like associate that with someone who's going to take six to eight free throws a night. And he just doesn't get it. I don't know what it is. Is it that he's skinny? Is this, is he being skinny shamed? Is it that he's not flailing enough? Like,

Starting point is 00:21:29 is he not selling the fouls? I really don't understand it. Well, here's what interesting. He has three years of track record in Michigan, right? So I, 21.3% free throw rate this year,

Starting point is 00:21:40 last year in Michigan, it was 36.9%. Yeah. Before it was 27.2 year before it was 36.9 percent year before is 27.2 year before is 42.5 so is it just the big 12 they just are cool with people like suplexing each other in the post I don't get it it really doesn't make any sense like I mean if you could just take Yudoka Azubuki's free throw rate with Hunter Dickinson's game, I mean, he might actually beat Zach Eaddy for best player in the country.

Starting point is 00:22:10 And I saw a lot of people talking about that, too, the way that, like, Zach Eaddy gets calls and Hunter Dickinson just doesn't. That would, hey, I'll tell you what, that would make this offense look a hell of a lot better. If he started getting to the free throw line six to eight times a night, like, all of a sudden, your offense is going to look a lot more impressive. I just gasped looking at Zach Eady's free throw rate. Have you seen it? No, I know it's higher. Oh, it is much higher. How about four times higher?

Starting point is 00:22:36 84.4. How is that even possible?

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - What is Kansas Jayhawks Basketball's Ceiling + Curse of Preseason AP #1 for KU

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