Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - What the Iowa State Game will Tell Us About KU Football + Rest of Season Predictions + Worst Coaching Decisions of the Week

Episode Date: September 29, 2022

What the KU-Iowa State game will tell us about the Jayhawks and rest of season predictions based on what we've seen for Kansas, featuring Jalon Daniels, Daniel Hishaw, Devin Heal, Lawrence Arnold, Luke Grimm, Lonnie Phelps and more. Plus, Scott Chasen's Worst Coaching Decisions of the Week.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!LinkedInLinkedIn jobs helps you find the candidates you want to talk to, faster. Post your job for free at Linkedin.com/lockedoncollege Terms and conditions apply.Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKEDON15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnlineBetOnline.net has you covered this season with more props, odds and lines than ever before. BetOnline – Where The Game Starts!UpsideDownload the FREE Upside App and use promo code Locked to get $5 or more cash back on your first purchase of $10 or more.Underdog FantasySign up on underdogfantasy.com with the promo code LOCKED ON and get your first deposit doubled up to $100! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

on today's locked on Jayhawks. We're joined by Scott Jason to talk more KU football. I'm Derek Johnson. You can also hear me on rock chalk sports talk Mondays through Fridays from three to six on KLWN in Lawrence. Thanks for making locked on Jayhawks. Your first listen every day. We're free and available wherever you get your podcasts on today's edition of locked on Jayhawks your first listen every day. We're free and available wherever you get your podcasts.

On today's edition of Locked on Jayhawks, joined by Scott Chasen to discuss KU football and some fun things that could occur for the Jayhawks moving forward the rest of the season. Fun predictions through this point in the year, plus Scott's worst coaching decisions of the week. But first, today's episode is brought to you by BetOnline. BetOnline has you covered this season with more props, odds, and lines than ever before. BetOnline, where the game starts. Scott Chasen joins us now.

You can also hear him on Booth Review with Kansas City Sports Network. KU takes on Iowa State on Saturday. And I think the win over Duke definitely gets them over hump where, like at this point, a bowl game, not making it, would probably be a little bit disappointing because you just need two wins over the last eight,

especially with how you've looked. It's not just that you're winning these games with weird things or fluky natures. Like, you've kind of just been the better team here. But let's say they beat Iowa State this week. They're three and a half point underdogs. If they win this game, do you start changing your view of this team

from being a team who, let's just see if they can make a bowl game, to all of a sudden, like, hey, maybe the Big 12 is wide open. Do we think this team could win eight or nine games and legitimately compete for a spot in the Big 12 title game? Yeah, I think so. I think that's where you start the conversation. And, Derek, at this point, I've that's where you start the conversation. And Derek, at this point, I've not only gone back and rewatched KU, I've also watched that Iowa State-Baylor game. I came away really, I don't want to say unimpressed with Iowa State, but for

anyone who didn't watch that game, it ended at a touchdown, but that was a two-score game for good, but it felt like Baylor was in control of that game. And candidly, Iowa state got some breaks. I know everyone saw the Matt Campbell kind of temper tantrum in the first half with some calls that they were, I mean, they were kind of questionable, but one was like definitely a hundred percent the right call. It was a targeting where the guy led with the crown of his helmet and hit another guy in the helmet. And it was targeted. It was triggered by the upstairs booth review. So it wasn't like the rest on the field were like, oh, that was a big hit. That was like the sky ref was like, oh no, Hey, stop the game.

That's clearly targeting. You guys need to go look at that. So like I get that, but Iowa state got a touchdown on a fumble that I'm not sure the guy actually ever recovered in the end zone and probably should have been a touchback. So anyway, long answer to say, I would say State didn't look that good against Baylor. They did not trust their quarterback Hunter Deckers to throw to really do anything difficult. Defensively, they were okay, yet they fell for a trick play

and Matt Campbell kind of called out how bad their eye discipline was. So this is a beatable team that I think KU can take advantage of. I'm not necessarily picking KU to win, but yeah, if KU wins this game, you take nothing away from Kansas. You just say they have taken care of business and they might be passing a few of these teams that are going to finish at the bottom of the Big 12. Derek, if KU beats Iowa State, it's the TCU game for me, where if they win it, I'll say absolutely they are a Big 12 title contender. And if they don't, then I'll say, yeah, probably not, but they're definitely making a bowl game this year. I think that's kind of what's at stake. You reset the conversation with the win against Iowa State where it does become, yeah, you go beat TCU. Let's talk about

what it would take to make the Big 12 title game. Well, what about the flip side to this? Let's say KU loses. It's not a blowout, but it's also not like a three-point game where it's like, ah, they very easily could have won that. Let's say it's, you know, Iowa State wins by 14 points where it was just clear Iowa State was the better team. What do you think we're going to be talking about on Monday or Tuesday or Sunday, whenever after the game, obviously you have your post-game reaction show with, with Kent on Kansas City Sports Network with Booth Review. What do you think the conversation would be? I think it'll be talking about a reset, You know, were these problems that Kansas was so outmatched or maybe did Kansas buy into its own hype a little bit? I think that becomes a question.

And Lance Laipold had a comment this week. He even said, he was like, if we worry about the stuff, him saying this, if we worry about the stuff outside the program, then the success will just be a blip. And in fact, he said that a few different times. And, you know, Derek, we talked about this on our show. Locker rooms are not homogenous. Like it isn't you can't say the team does or doesn't care about this because locker rooms are incredibly diverse. There are people who react to success differently. Like I feel pretty good about the Buffalo guys reacting to success and dealing with the off the field stuff. I'm very curious about a lot of the returning guys, the guys who have not experienced this level of success and how they react to it. So yeah, if Kay loses, I would, I'd first try to think, is it more of a schematic,

a physical, something on the field or maybe some intangibles. And then I think the conversation shifts to, okay, what's realistic here. You know, what's the path to a bowl game? Like, um, what's, what's the best kind of expectation for this season or, you know, what, what maybe does Kansas still need to work on to be a lot better? Um, this is a, this is, um, I don't want to say for the second week in a row, this is the biggest game the program has played. And I don't think this will be the case against TCU. Like if KU beats Iowa State, TCU is not a bigger game than this game is this week. But this is, last week was like,

is Kansas legit? You know, is Kansas actually a good team or is Kansas just kind of catching these teams off guard and taking advantage of maybe some down teams? This week is like,

yeah, is Kansas a really good team that is definitely making a bowl game and has a two-year window to be pretty damn good I think that's the conversation for these two this week here well you talked about that Baylor Iowa State game the way you kind of talked about it was almost similar like Iowa State did to Baylor

what Duke did to Kansas and that it was maybe closer than the score would indicate but I think that's part of it too like if you perform well against Iowa State and you even win this game like I don't know who the top team in the Big 12 is now Oklahoma State's undefeated but they haven't played anyone Oklahoma just lost to Kansas State Texas lost to Texas Tech it might be Baylor we saw them lose to BYU earlier this year so if Iowa State played a competitive game with Baylor and Kansas beats Iowa State I know it doesn't always work that way with the transitive property stuff but it's hard not to view that as like okay Kansas could beat anybody remaining on their schedule doesn't mean they'll win every game doesn't mean they'll be favored in any other games moving forward but at the very least means that yes you go into each and every

Saturday saying if we play well we can win this game yeah Derek I see the big 12 and three tiers right now and this is all subject to change this This could change this week. As a matter of fact, to me, tier one is Baylor, Oklahoma state and Oklahoma still, I know they just lost to Kansas state. I think some poor game management, a couple of fluky things happened in that game, but K state also, as the game went on there, their guys up front played really, really well. And I think you take nothing away from that. They're a very good team. I think K-State is kind of in between tier one and tier two.

So maybe it's four tiers. But I think right now Kansas and maybe Iowa State fall into that second tier where they can absolutely jump up and beat any of those teams in tier one at the top of the conference. And again, it's all subject to change, right? Like if Iowa State comes out and beats Kansas by 20, yeah, I'll probably be like, okay, maybe Iowa state's a little bit better than they showed against Baylor. I have not extensively watched every game Iowa state has played this year. I did not watch whatever that was that they called football against Iowa, for example. Um, so, so that'll give me a, uh, probably a higher, uh,

you know, perception of them. But if Kansas goes out and beats Iowa state, like, I'm not going to come back here and be like, yeah, Kansas is in tier one of the big 12, but I'm absolutely going to come back here and be like, there's not a game this year on the season, on the schedule that Kansas can't win. And honestly, I might be there already there to your point. All right. In just a moment, I want to get into some, I guess, predictions and player stuff for the rest of the season here on Locked on Jayhawks.

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Head to BetOnline.net or use your mobile device to learn more. You can bet on the KU-Iowa State game. You can get KU to win the Big 12. It's funny, KU to win the Big 12, depending where you looked earlier in the season, you might have been able to find it at 250-1 or something like that. And then after the West Virginia game, it was up to 125-1 on BetOnline. After the Houston game, I think it was up to 75-1. Now they're even ahead of Iowa State and West Virginia on those odds lists.

They just continue to rise up for winning the Big 12. But that's a conversation that, as we said with Scott, is something that you're going to have to cross based on, you know, let's see what happens this Saturday first, I guess is the best way to put it. BetOnline, where the game starts. KU is done with the non-con now, and I know they already played a Big 12 game, but for what it's worth, it's pretty much now is like the Big 12 part of the season for KU because it's all Big 12 from here on out for KU.

So I want to do some season predictions now that we do have the non-con under the belt in that one conference game and some evidence of what this team looks like and what they're going to try to do, players that stick out, stuff like that. The first is over Jalen Daniels. He's obviously been so good this season. He's on pace right now for like 45 total touchdowns, which is just remarkable numbers. But obviously I don't think we expect things to continue in a way

that he's going to have a good season. But in terms of the numbers themselves, to pace it for me to say over under 45 touchdowns, that would be pretty remarkable. So let's put it at 35. If I said Jalen Daniels over under 35 total touchdowns at the end of the year when we total it all up, what would you take? I'd probably go under just because I think the defenses

are going to get better and things will get harder in Big 12 play. I think he will rely on its running backs. And I mean, you've already kind of seen him get dinged up a little bit. I don't think that affected the game plan at all in the last game, but you know, it's still a lot to ask him to run so much. I will say this and credit to your co-host on rock truck sports talk, Nick Springer, who has kind of been all over like what Kansas could be. I mean, shoot, he picked them to go six and six this year, give him major credit, but like Jalen Daniels has surpassed what I thought was even like a reasonable goal for him to be at. I mean, maybe not in sheer numbers, right? 15

touchdowns is great, but over the course of a season, you'd say fine. You know, not so great, but I didn't see Jalen Daniels approaching 30 touchdowns. For example, I just thought for a Kansas quarterback, that mark is, is I mean, Carter Stanley was like in the ballpark and he was still like five away. So like, I mean, that's just so crazy to think about how good he has been this year. Um, yeah, 45 is a little too high. I think 35 would be a little too high, you know, for me, but I think he's got a chance to get another 15 touchdowns maybe over these next eight weeks, which would be about two a game and maybe lean on that running game a little bit more,

especially when you get into some of these matchups with, you know, teams that are better than Kansas, that Kansas will slow the tempo against use that running game a little bit more just to kind of limit possessions a game. So I'll take under, but he'll make that a difficult decision if he goes out and gets five more touchdowns this week. One thing, though, you didn't consider, they could be playing in a bowl game and they count the bowl game stats into your point. So I don't know. I'll take the over. I'll be optimistic here. But yeah, if you gave me like 40, I would definitely think

take the under on that one and I don't know if it's it's much about like is there a correction coming or a defense is going to figure them out no I think it's just you're playing better defense is what you talked about I think uh Bill Connolly from ESPN SP plus released like a conference wide like average or median for the top you know kind of teams and or the top conferences and what their rankings were and efficiencies on each side of the ball. The Big 12 was in the 20s on defense, which speaks to how good the conference is on that end. If you go out against a good Iowa State defense this week and you have five more touchdowns or something, maybe we'll reconsider that one.

Who will lead the team in rushing yards at the end of the year? Right now, Jalen Daniels is leading the team at 320. I don't know if he'll continue to get that many carries. Maybe defense is key and more on that. Maybe KU wants to avoid him getting hit. Whatever it is. Devin Neal is second at 258. Daniel Highshaw is third at 231. If you had to pick who leads the team in rushing yards

at the end of the year, who are you going with? If he stays healthy, it'll be Jalen. Just because of the split. I think that says something about how good he's been running the ball, especially as the season has gone on. But I think it's more about, you know, if Kai Thomas is healthy, can you split and carries between four, sometimes five running backs with Tori Laughlin.

So I think that's partly by design. Derek, you also made a point real quick not to derail, but just to jump back to something that's really kind of bothered me about the kind of national perception of Kansas and even local some before the season, everyone, uh, you, me beat writers, uh, national media was saying, Oh, Kansas has a better team, but gosh, their schedule is so hard this year. I mean, they have Houston in the non-con they basically play 11 power five games. Like, yeah, I could hard this year. I mean, they have Houston in the non-con. They basically play 11 power five games. Like, yeah, I could see this Kansas team showing improvement,

but they might only win one or two games because the schedule is so hard. And then Kansas started 4-0, and now everyone's like, well, the schedule's easy. I mean, they played Houston. They played Duke. It's like, what? Hold on. Like, no, Kansas has survived these tests so far.

So from that perspective, like, I do put a lot of credence into what they've done early because Kansas has played as good a schedule as basically half the teams in the AP top 25 right now. So to that point, I kind of expect some of the things that Kansas is doing to hold up the rest of the season. But I think the general point you were making and that I said earlier, the schedule gets a lot tougher. And so it wouldn't shock me even if they run Jalen Daniels a little bit less just because

they know these defenses are gonna you know kind of um really key in on him and you don't want to get your quarterback injured over the course of the season so um if he stays healthy Jalen but Devin Neal probably would be my answer otherwise yeah I think I would go Devin Neal but also like what Daniel Hyshaw has shown like he's I it's different in how they do it, and there are certain things Devin does better, there are certain things Daniel does better, but overall, some of its parts, there's not that much of a difference when you have Devin Neal on the field versus Daniel Hyshaw. So it wouldn't be surprising if after the last game, Devin got a little bit banged up there, and we did see him come back, but if even Hyshaw kind of takes over.

What about with Kai Thomas? We've seen him kind of dissipate in terms of his playing time sounded like he was dealing with an injury last week which kept him off the field obviously but even prior to the injury weren't really seeing him on the field if i give you 0.5 rushing touchdowns for kai thomas the rest of the season what would you take the rest of the season oh that's brutal oh that's brutal. Oh, that's so brutal. I would probably go over. I thought you were going to give me next week.

I was going to be like, under, easy. I'm high on Kai Thomas. I like Kai Thomas. But yeah, I just think he's dinged up and it's such a crowded running backs room. I was talking on our podcast, Kent made the point that this may be a Savion Morrison game just because Iowa State kind of loads up on the inside with how they play their defensive linemen. Even though it's only three and Kent made the point that sometimes their boxes look really light. Like technically there may be four guys in the box, but you might have two linebackers and two safeties hanging around, you know, just on the edges of those things ready to crash at any time. So a lot of times it does lend itself to speed on

the outside or, you know, speed getting to the outside. So this could be a Sabian Morrison or even a Torrey Laughlin game, but yeah, it's not a knock against Kai Thomas. It's just the crowded running backs room. Andy is dinged up. I think I'll go over actually. I will go over just because it's a long season. There's a lot of time left and he's a really talented running back, but it wouldn't shock me if it's under just because of those factors, crowded room and the injuries at this point. Who knows if he's going to play this week?

Who knows what his availability will be in the coming weeks? And then we've only seen him maybe get one or two carries in the games he's played. I'm tempted to say under because we just haven't seen it. But again, I'll be optimistic here and say that they find a way to get him one over the course of the season. Right now, Lawrence Arnold leads KU in receiving yards 194, Luke Grimm not far behind 162, Quentin Skinner at 124. Who ends up leading Kansas in receiving yards this year? I feel pretty good about LJ Arnold. I expected Luke Grimm to be

Jalen Daniels' guy, and he has to an extent, but I think it's pretty clear to me, this team trusts LJ Arnold in the biggest situations, especially what he can do after the catch, but they've thrown some, you know, pretty important passes his way. They've zipped him into tight coverage and same with Quentin Skinner. He's made a few big, big catches to again,

take nothing away from Luke Grimm. I think he's a really talented receiver. I just think LJ Arnold, this is team's number one. So I will go with LJ Arnold. I agree with Arnold. I said before the season, Arnold leads him in receiving yards. Grim leads him in receiving or just catches. Right now, that's turned out to be the case, although the difference between Arnold and Grim is only one catch apart. But I continue to think that's kind

of going to be the case here. Does Lonnie Phelps get double digit sacks this season? He's currently over four. He's currently at five because of the one they didn't count in the Houston game that I'm going to, you know, what bothers me about stats, Derek, we're all in media. We can all keep our own stats. We don't need to rely on these computers and people to tell us how many sacks a guy had, because at last time I checked, if you tackle the quarterback in the backfield for a loss of one on a passing play, uh, that is called a sack. So I'm going to say Lonnie Phelps has five sacks and still take the under just because I think teams are paying so much attention

to him right now. Um, he is drawing like a billion holds per game. They are getting called more and more. I think that's important, but, uh, I think he's game wrecking without getting sacks. And he's also helping out the guys on, you know, other guys on the line get pressure because teams are so concerned about him. So I will take under, but I will say that under is a compliment to how good Lonnie Phelps has looked to start the year. I agree. The impact will be felt similar to a double-digit sack guy, but I would take the under.

It's just hard. You've seen so many times where tight ends or running backs are helping the linemen chip him. So it's going to be continually hard especially in conference play I feel like things start to get more honed in from coaches around the league of what you do well and the scouting reports start to get even deeper on that end who will lead the team and turnovers created in the end so uh for what I'm putting here if if you get an interception, forced fumble or fumble recovery, those each count as one separately, who would you go with? I want to go with Craig Young because he's just around the ball so much like easy pick Kenny Logan on interceptions. Marvin

Grant's a big hitter. OJ Burrows, maybe an interception Jacoby Brian on the outside or Mello Dotson's been in good positions and already could have had a couple of picks, but I'm going to, I'm going to like, let's bear this thing out and see what Craig Young does over the next few weeks, just because he's around the ball so much and he's in different positions. He's already almost had one great chance at an interception. So I think I would go with Craig Young on this one, even though I think he's at zero right now. He is a zero created at the moment. I'm going to go with Kobe Bryant. He just seems like to me Romello Dotson seems like the trustworthy constantly like good coverage corner Kobe Bryant like he does good

coverage as well but it's different it's more opportunistic like he's like you know if we make like a basketball comparison right like if you go back to the 08 KU title team Russell Robinson was probably more of the just, pure defensive guard, whereas Mario Chalmers got a lot of the awards because he racked up a lot of steals. And I think Russell Robinson might have been a better defender than Mario Chalmers, but Chalmers was averaging 2.5 steals per game. He was opportunistic. He would get steals. That's how I view this secondary with Romello Dotson and Kobe Bryant.

Kobe Bryant might give up a few more plays, but he's also going to get a few more interceptions, turnovers your way. There was one play where Duke had a – it ended up being like a big pass. I think it was toward the end of the first half that Kobe Bryant was like half a step away from picking it off on an out route that turned into a big game. It just plays like that. He's going to make some of those that are going to cost you yards. He's going to make some that get interceptions.

I think he's the guy for me. He is way more likely to get beat jumping a route, whereas Romello Dotson is way more likely to give up a catch that he kept the guy way too far underneath him and gave him too much of a cushion, for sure. Exactly. Okay, KU's averaging

47 points per game this season. Under. Under. I'm not going with that. You get a two-point buffer, both directions. So if you say how many points they're going to finish at this year, if you say 35, you get between 33 and 37. What would you pick? Oh, boy. Well, now you're asking me to do math because they're one-third of the way through the season. And so if I think they're going to average 31 points per game the rest of the season, I would have to multiply 31 times 0.67 and then multiply 40, whatever times 0.33. So that's really complicated. And

I really appreciate doing that. So I'm going to say 35 points per game. Um, I don't know if the math bears itself out, right? Actually, I'll go a little lower. I'm going to say 32 points per game. Um, I think they finish in the 30 to 34 range. And that's because I think against some of these games, it's not only that the offense won't score as much against maybe like a Baylor or an Oklahoma State, but I also think Kansas is going to play slower. And you're going to see less games, fewer games in the 40s and 50s by either team, because Kansas will be limiting possessions against Oklahoma and whatnot so I would expect that number to dip but that may not have anything to do with

Kansas's offensive efficiency it may have more to do with the number of possessions in games if Kansas averages 29 points per game the rest of the season they get to 35 that sounds about reasonable for me I'll say they finish at 35 because that gives me between 33 and 37. I'll go right in line with you there. We've got to get to your worst coaching decisions of the week here. That in just a moment on Locked on Jayhawks. Lots of candidates for

this week's worst coaching decisions of the week. Scott, I'll let you take it away. Who are the official candidates for the award this week? Well, Derek, I promised you the most diverse grouping of candidates that we've ever had. And this is not only between college and the NFL, but we have different sports here for the worst coaching decision of the week for the first time ever. So number one, I'm going to start with the KU game. Mike Elko, the Duke coach.

Duke had a third and two at the KU 26 with 19 seconds left in the half. Derek, they ran four plays after that point. They went run, run, spike, not calling a timeout and then kicked a field goal. So they had three chances at the end of the half to take a shot at the end zone and didn't and then kick the field goal to stay down a touchdown going into the half. That was insane. And also not using their timeout. Like they ran their last play. There were 11 seconds left. Then they all ran up to the half. That was insane. And also not using their timeout. Like they ran their last play. There were 11 seconds left.

Then they all ran up to the line and spiked it instead of just calling timeout and figuring it out later. So that was silly. Number two is Andy Reid. Andy Reid did not call a timeout with a minute 15 left. He allowed the Colts to basically run out the entire clock and put Patrick Mahomes in a really tough situation with only 24 seconds left to, to go and potentially win the game. Also the, the fake punt was just a bizarre decision or the fake field goal was

a bizarre decision. Not because, you know, usually those things happen because you see something on film and you think you can exploit it. And so I don't, I don't always love questioning a fake field goal decision or a fake punt or something like that surprise on side uh it was fourth and ten um just let Patrick Mahomes throw if you don't trust your kicker and then you can't go after you run that fake you can't then go back to your kicker because he has no confidence and that happened he missed a field goal and now he's no longer on the team so that

that's two number three we go to the NBA uhty Williams has not spoken to Sun Center DeAndre Ayton for four months since a reported blow up in game seven that ended the Sun season last year. There were also a bunch of trade rumors with DeAndre Ayton in the offseason. Free agency, they didn't know if he would come back. So not great that the coach of the team didn't talk to the fringe all-star center, who is now a max player on the team and can't be traded for four months. Not great that they haven't spoken in months. I definitely,

that's a poor coaching decision that continues. And I have a fourth candidate this week. Derek, you may know where I'm going with this one. It is Nathaniel Hackett. What? It's a special decision coach because he hired a special decisions coach to help him make decisions um Nathaniel Hackett went oh and two uh oh of two on challenges he also had a fourth and inches down

five in the fourth quarter and punted so I'm not giving it to Nathaniel Hackett uh but Nathaniel Hackett's special decisions coach makes the list so Derek I'm actually gonna let you pick the winner here um I think that's only fair well I think I think that you're right. The Mike Elko thing, he definitely ruined that at the end of the half, but also I was actually impressed with his ability of like, he was aggressive going forward on fourth down, shut the game. So I'll give him benefit of the doubt a little bit there. I just want to keep this with Nathaniel Hackett. I know it's not officially him, but with his party, it'll be less travel with the the trophy that we have going around so we're gonna go with that one we're

gonna go nathaniel hackett special decision coach again this is not nathaniel hackett he did a great job coaching his team to an 11 to 10 win this week on sunday night football or whatever it was um very sorry to nathaniel hack, special decisions coach. Awesome. Well, Scott, appreciate the time as always and talk to you next week. Thanks for having me. Coming up on tomorrow's show, we are going to get to our KU Iowa State preview for the game on Saturday at 2.30, which you can hear on KLWN and Lawrence. If you have anything you'd like for the show to talk about

or want to follow along on the action, you can reach out to me at DJohnsonRadio on Twitter. And don't forget to subscribe to the show so you're getting all the latest with Locked On Jayhawks. That'll do it for today's episode. Have a good rest of your day. I'll see some of you on RCST later today. Till then, later.