Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Why Kansas CAN MAKE THE FINAL FOUR and What Other Schools Can/Can't Based on Past History

Episode Date: March 17, 2025

Can the Kansas Jayhawks make a Final Four run in the NCAA tournament? Discover the historical criteria that have defined past Final Four teams and see how Kansas stacks up. Host Derek Johnson breaks down the Jayhawks' potential path, analyzing their region and comparing it to others. With insights into key components like head coach Bill Self, this episode offers a comprehensive look at what it takes to succeed in March Madness. Explore the statistical benchmarks and coaching strategies that could lead Kansas to victory. Will the Jayhawks' current form be enough to meet preseason expectations, or is a Sweet 16 finish more realistic? Tune in for a deep dive into Kansas basketball's tournament prospects and find out what a successful run would mean for the team. Listen now for expert analysis and bracket-busting predictions!Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!NissanTake your adventures to new heights in the All-New Nissan Armada PRO-4X. Learn more at NissanUSA.com.Disclaimers: Optional features. Towing capacity varies by configuration. See Nissan Towing Guide and Owner’s Manual for additional information. Always secure cargo.Supply HouseJoin the Trade Master program today at SupplyHouse.com/TM and start ordering plumbing, HVAC, and electrical supplies with just a few clicks. Plus, use promo code SH5 for 5% off your first order. That’s SupplyHouse.com!WayFairAfter the holiday hustle, there’s nothing like giving your home a little TLC. Give your home the refresh it needs with Wayfair. Head to Wayfair.com right now. Wayfair. Every style. Every home.  FactorLooking to optimize your nutrition this year? Eat smart with Factor. Get started at FACTOR MEALS.com/FACTORPODCAST and use code FACTORPODCAST to get 50% off your first box plus free shipping.Turbo TaxReady for stress-free taxes and the most money back, guaranteed? Head over to TurboTax.com today and get matched with your Expert. Only available with TurboTax Live Full Service. Real-time updates only in the iOS mobile app. See guarantee details at TurboTax.com/guarantees.ROYDownload the Roy app now from the App Store and start backing your favorite athletes the way they deserve—with transparency, trust, and a real impact. This is the future of college sports. Join it now by downloading Roy and supporting your favorite players!Monarch MoneyTake control of your finances with Monarch Money. Use code LOCKEDONCOLLEGE at monarchmoney.com for 50% off your first year. FanDuelRight now, new customers can get TWO HUNDRED DOLLARS in BONUS BETS when your first FIVE DOLLAR BET WINS! Download the app or head to FANDUEL.COM to get started. Bet with FanDuel—Official Partner of the NBA.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN)

On today's Locked on Jayhawks, why past history tells us Kansas can make the final for this season and do they actually have the easiest path? Do they have the softest bracket among the four different regions in the 2025 NCAA tournament? You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks part of the locked on podcast network your team every day. What's going on Derek Johnson here this is locked on Jayhawks thanks for making your first listen every day wherever you get your podcast including on our YouTube page and thank you for listening whether you are an everyday or a first time listener, please subscribe to the show helps us out on our end of things. On today's episode of the show, we're going to talk about why Kansas can make a final four. We do some of these past history statistics and lines that show you got to be this good if you want to make a final four.

Kansas actually ends up okay there. So we're going to go over that and what other teams do make the cut for being good enough to make the final four? What other teams would need to be the aberration, would need to be the exception to the rule? We're also gonna talk about, does KU have the easiest region and what would be a good tournament for the Jayhawks?

Today's episode of the show is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. And right now new customers can get $200 in bonus bets when your first $5 bet wins. Do that at Fandool.com. So Kansas, we know will be a seven seed. And thank you if you already checked out our episode, that we there's already did.

Talking a little bit about the seed in the first round and the possible second round matchup and everything like that for Kansas, which we'll talk continually on throughout the week here on the show. So this will hopefully help you win your bracket pool or at least do a little bit better in your bracket pool. And this is kind of why Kansas and other teams can or cannot make the final four, we will have another episode coming up about why what

teams can or cannot win the national title, you're not going to want to miss that if you want to win your bracket pool. But on today's episode, talk a little bit about the final four criteria. And these are things where the past final four teams have done this well. Right. They're good at three point shooting. They're good at this thing on offense or whatever. And teams that fit into that billing of past history, what that shows us. Now, this claim disclaimer here, right?

There are always exceptions to the rule. There is no mastery of the unmasterable. I don't think that's a word, but we're gonna roll with it. The NCAA tournament is chaos incarnate. It is the most unpredictable thing that you could imagine when you have 18 to 20, I guess, four-year-olds at this point in time

playing a single game elimination NCAA tournament. Like it's just crazy things happen, right? So the point of this isn't to say that you're going to, I have nailed down all four of your final four picks. No, it's going to narrow down the options for you though, right? It'll maybe make things a little bit easier. You know, maybe it'll give you an option of choose one of these five teams, choose one of these four teams. And maybe that makes things a little bit easier because maybe one of the teams you're gonna pick gets eliminated beyond that, right? Part of this, I always say is,

do you wanna ride the streak or do you wanna pick the exception of the rule, right? If you wanna pick the exception of the rule, do your thing, have fun, right? And to certain extent, you can point to ones that that ends up being the case year in and year out. But if you end up with two of the four final four teams in your bracket pool, you end up with three of the four final four teams, your bracket pool.

There's a good chance you're going to win or be contending to win your bracket pool. So that's why this is all helpful. But, you know, it's not going to be 100 percent or final. Right. There's always that Cinderella or weird team. And then, you know, maybe that's the one exception to also speak. So here are what the past final four teams have done. All 92 past final four teams have done all 92 past final four teams dating back to the 2001

Season as part of this Were top 11 seeds. So there have been a couple teams that have made it as 11 seed So we push that out to top 11 seeds 92 out of 92 So that's gonna cut down, you know, a good chunk of teams right away right there. 90 of the 92 teams who have made it to the final four since 2001, again, this is over two decades worth of data, were top 44 in adjusted EM on Ken Palm,

which the adjusted EM on Ken Palm is basically your rating, your measure of how good of a team you are. Essentially put another way, they came into the NCAA tournament rates top 44 on Ken Palm, right? Then you have some stricter guidelines that we'll get into here,

but if you want to go a little stricter, 85 of the 92, which is still 92%, we're top 31 on Ken Palm coming in. Now 90 of the 92 teams who made the final four since 01 had top 75 offenses. You can go 89 of 92 had top 68 if you want to tighten up a little bit. 88 of the 92 teams had top 90 defenses. This is one where you can really tighten up if you want to. 83 of 92 had top 50 defenses. And then there's always a correlation with the coaches. 86 of the 92 final four teams had a coach

who previously made the second round in the NCAA tournament or were in their first NCAA tournament, right? So seemingly a little bit of beginner's luck maybe does not really know what you're getting into and in a positive way. But for the guys who have been there before, you at least have to have that win under your belt

where you've shown some experience in positive light. If you want to take that one further, 83 of the 92 had previously had a sweet 16 under their belts, making it to the second weekend. So if we're not looking at the strict versions, we're just looking at the base versions, right? Top 11 seed, top 44 in Ken Palm, top 75 offense, top 90 defense,

and a coach who's either in their first year or making it to the second round. By those measures, that would eliminate all of the teams who are seated 12th or 16, obviously, right? So that gets rid of, let's just say 20 teams. So you have a couple who are in the 16 play-ins, or I guess 22 teams, right? Then in the South region, it eliminates Louisville,

their head coach, new head coach Pat Kelsey, done an excellent job with them. Fortunately, he's never made a second round. So they're gone. New Mexico, their offensive rating, not good enough. San Diego State, their overall ranking, their offense ranking, not good enough. And the East, Vanderbilt, gone, their overall ranking, not good enough. Midwest, this gets rid of a big one here. Kentucky, oddly enough, Mark Pope has never

made it to a second round of the NCAA tournament yet. And he might have had the COVID season happened, right? That BYU team was really good, but unfortunately it didn't and he doesn't have one. Utah State is not ranked high enough, so they're going to the Midwest. And then out of the West, this is where it gets rid of the heavy hitters. Florida's head coach, Todd Golden, has never made a second round. Now this will only be his third NCAA tournament, but he's lost in the first round both times, once at San Francisco and once in Florida.

They're eliminated. Memphis, who's been a trendy five seed because they've got really good guard play. Well, they're just not ranked high enough on Kenpom. Yukon not there because defense and then Drake is not there by overall ranking and offensive ratings. So what that leaves is a good amount of teams in each region. In the South, you have Auburn, Michigan State, Iowa State, Texas A&M, Michigan, Ole Miss Market

in North Carolina. In the East, you have Duke, Alabama, Wisconsin, Arizona, Oregon, BYU, St. Mary's, Mississippi State, Baylor VCU. There's still a lot of teams left, right? In the Midwest, you have Houston, Tennessee, Clemson, Illinois, UCLA, Gonzaga, Georgia, Texas, Xavier. And in the West, where Kansas is, St. John's, Texas Tech, Maryland, Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. So because there's still so many teams left,

let's try to narrow that down a little bit more. Now, I will say, if you go by the stricter rules, remember how I said if you wanted to, you could go by, hey, the high percentages of things still say 92% of the teams were top 31, right? It leaves a little bit more open for the exceptions rule, but it's still a majority of them are that way. And if you go by that, you'd have top 31 overall

on Ken Palm coming in, top 11 seed, top 60 in an offense, top 50 on defense and making it to a sweet 16 or better for that coach previously or being in their first tournament. What I find very interesting is if we just look at Kansas's region, the West, there's only two teams that that filter through on that, I guess those guidelines that filter St. John's, Kansas, that do anything for you. Now the interesting part about Florida is the head coach one is the only one

they don't qualify for. And Florida has been such a giant, I mean, their rating on Kenpom is incredible. It's not just like, oh, they're one of the best teams in the country. If you compare them to other past years, they're well above like other teams, number ones in past years.

So maybe you'd make the exception of the rule for them. If you want to make the exception on one of these areas, sure, go for it. But that is interesting that Kansas one of the two that would certainly qualify there. So let's tighten this up a little bit more. And then we'll get into a little bit talk on the region kids in because that is interesting that those would be the only two this is locked on Jayhawks. This episode of the show is brought to you by Factor.

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I've found that a majority of teams who have made the final four have. Unfortunately, these stats are post NCAA tournament. So it's going to take into account the tournament bump, right? If you're going to the final four, you're winning four games. You're probably gonna do some things better than you did in the regular season

or some things, you know, maybe slightly better, something like maybe you were bad three point shooting team you got hot for four games. So you're good at everything else, right? And it's gonna distort the numbers a little bit here because pre-tournament numbers, again, different than post- to distort the numbers a little bit here because pre tournament numbers again, different than post tournament numbers that set, we can still use it to maybe give us a better guidance of who to

go with. And so looking at that the big factors that I've kind of found in past Final Four teams. For this one, I just go back to 2002 where I have the numbers. So 88 Final Four teams since 2002. All 88 of them that were top 240 in the country in turnover percentage offense, right? Some of these numbers don't sound that great. It's not like they're a lead at them. It's just you basically it's more about you can't be like horrible at these things if that

makes sense, because it comes in Achilles heel. 87 of the 88 were top 280 in offensive rebound rate. And every team since 2018, top 180 in three point percentage. Now that one more cut off to 2018 because it becomes more prevalent when you look at the evolution of basketball, the three point volume that has come, the lengthening of the three point line at the NCAA level.

So that one's interesting there. Some factors that are interesting in terms of the defensive side, top 190 in effective field goal percentage, 86 of the 88 final four teams. And then three point defense, top 265 for 87 of the 88. The last one here is experience. All but two since 2016 have been top 180 and experience

rating the only two that didn't qualify for that metric were actually both in the same year 2022 North Carolina and Duke. Now the Duke one makes sense littered with you know, Paulo Bencaro and other lottery picks Mark Williams. I don't remember if his lottery pick or close but whatever the North Carolina one was just weird. That was a weird run by an eight seed, right? Now the other one here is height ranking.

87 of the 88 Final Four teams, top 245 in average height. So, you know, it helps say, who knew? Being tall in basketball is a good thing, right? So using all that stuff, it helps us filter down the teams that have already been filtered. Let's start with the South. Michigan State, 327th right now in three board percentage.

Again, these teams can get better over the course of the tournament. But to go from 327th to top 180, I don't know if that's doable for Michigan State, right? So they're gone. Texas A&M, they're actually barely outside in turnover rate, but the bigger deal is their 317th in three board percentage. Aggies, gone.

Michigan State is 328th in turnover rate on offense right now. Or Michigan is, I think I just said Michigan State. And again, that's a number that you're looking to be top 240, and Michigan being outside 300, they're gone. Ole Miss is 313th in offensive rebound rate. Maybe that's close enough because it's 280th. So like if you had a good enough tournament, you could make it, but they're also outside on the height ranking.

So they're gone for sure. Marquette is 245th in three point percentage. That might be close enough to 180 that have like they made a final full run. Probably because they shot 40% from three over four games as a seven seed. Maybe that would be enough to move them in. But I don't know, that's still a good enough distance away

to get to 180, some Marquette gone. And then North Carolina is out on height of all things. You think of them for so many years having Armando Baycott and Tyler Hansborough and all the big men that Roy Williams had and stuff, but nope, they're out on height. So all that leaves in the South is Auburn and Iowa State. So again, there could be a team that, you know, surprise you, it could be a Marquette

or one of these other teams that ends up winning the league. But do you want to go with what history says is the most often or do you want to go with the aberration? That is up to you, right? It's like during the Nick Saban era, you could have bet against them to miss or I guess bet on them to miss the college football playoff every year. You're right a few times, right?

But don't you think you would have ended up on top more often than you weren't if you would have bet on them to make the college football playoff, right? Not with the streak, so to speak. At least that's my thinking of things. So that's all you're left with Auburn and Iowa State. Then you look to the East and Arizona is 247th in three point percentage right now. Again, kind of similar to Marquette, but I have a little less faith in them with three points. At least Marquette has Cam Jones, but we eliminated them anyway that they can get high from three. So Arizona gone.

St. Mary's is 232nd in three point percentage. You would have thought that like St. Mary's is always shooting well from three. I feel like that's the stereotype, but they're gone. They're also just outside in experience anyway. Mississippi State is 298th in three-point percentage, see ya, and Baylor is barely missing right now on defense in both defensive categories, effective field goal percentage defense, three-point defense.

I could probably put them in because if they made that deep run, it would boost both of those. They're close enough in both and they're both tied into one another. But I just don't really want to. I don't want to put Baylor in there. They're a 9 seed. They've lost 14 games.

They've Duke is the 1 seed. Like, no, thank you. I'm just not going to put Baylor in there. So that leaves in the East still 16s. You have Duke, Alabama, Wisconsin, Oregon, BYU. And how about this one VCU? So that is unfortunate that VCU is the, you know, VCU is the 11 seed, right?

Or is VCU the 10? I might be misthinking this. Anyway, that is a possible sleeper pick, but so could be BYU or Oregon who as a five seed gets to play in Seattle, even though they're not the four seed like Arizona. Then you move to the Midwest. Illinois is gone.

Three hundred sixteen and three point percentage. Georgia is out because their turnover rate and Xavier is out because of offense rebounder rates. We didn't eliminate a ton from the Midwest. That leaves six there to Houston, Tennessee, Clemson, UCLA, Gonzaga and Texas getting in there. Now, realistically, I probably wouldn't be picking Texas. They've been super inconsistent. Austin games kind of same thing to Baylor, but you know, do you, whatever you want to do.

They did qualify for this. And then in the West, St. John's is 338th in three point percentage. They're gone. Texas Tech is out by not reaching the bar on average height, I guess, both literally and physically there. Oklahoma is barely outside on two categories. So eliminating them here, and then Arkansas is gone on experience. So that leaves in the West, Maryland,

Missouri, and Kansas. And again, if you want to make the exception of the rule here for Florida, I'm totally cool with that because they've been such a wagon this season, that maybe that just becomes the obvious pick there but I do find that interesting that when we filtered it this way through the kind of easier guidelines and then through some of the more statistic guidelines as Well as the more strict guidelines that we did Kansas made the cut both times out of the West and They were the one common denominator because st. John's made it in one they didn't make it in the

other. I don't know, man. Who knows? Maybe Rylan Griffin just all of a sudden gets hot in the NCAA tournament. And you know, you get the one more of those AJ store games on the big 12th tournament that, you know, pulls you an upset or something like that. Who knows? Who knows what could happen the NCAA tournament it is this is really a new season for KU. So let's talk about the region itself. Is this the easiest region? What are those numbers kind of show us? What would be a good tournament run for KU? Our episode of Locked on Jayhawks today is brought to you by

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Watch studio shows featuring former players and Lockdown's local experts as they guide you through every upset, buzzer beater, and bracket matchup. Stream it all for free on Amazon Fire TV channels. Search bracket breakdown to see it all for free. It's your team every day. Okay, so don't forget to check out walk on college basketball and all the great work that is going on this week with the NCAA tournament. Again, we will have a bonus episode as a kind of a

follow up to this. What teams are good enough to make the national champion or to win the national championship and try to help you win your bracket pool this year at least contend because again, if you pick the right national champion doesn't guarantee you're gonna win. It probably means that you're gonna finish, you know, near the top certainly though. Okay, so when you're looking at some of these numbers that we filtered out, you might have noticed the first filtration that we went through. There were, let's see, eight teams that were left in the south.

There were ten or eleven teams left in the south, there were 10 or 11 teams left in the east, eight or nine left in the midwest and only seven left in the west. West lower numbers than the other ones that would qualify, that were good enough so to speak, right? If we just went down to the stricter numbers, all of them had four or more, the Kansas one had just two. And then if we went down to the the numbers, we just did last segment where we took the numbers from the first filtration process, add in the three point shooting and the turnover rate offense and all that sort of things, your left

with on that end, two teams in the south, three teams in the west. So one more in the west, six in the east, six in the Midwest. It seems pretty clear to me that east and the Midwest are the toughest regions, right? When you're just looking at the teams that are available there and how much firepower is there. The difficulty with saying the west is the easiest is it's almost dismissing Florida in a way that I am basically

dismissing them here because of the coaching thing. But like from a team perspective, you could argue Florida is playing the best basketball of anybody right now. I mean, they just won the SEC tournament. They've been unbelievable this season. So I don't know if it truly is the easiest, but I think from top to bottom by depth, you can certainly say it is. And by some of these stats, what they would show, I think the path actually is okay for Kansas

in a certain directive here. So I don't know that, you know, like, I guess if you just cross compare, for instance, you go and look at what's in the Midwest. If we're just looking at Kenbom, Houston is ranked third, Tennessee is ranked fifth, Clemson is ranked 18th,

Gonzaga is ranked ninth. So like you already have three of the top nine or something like that, right? You look at the East, you have Duke who's ranked first, you have Alabama who's ranked sixth, you have Wisconsin who's ranked 13th, BYU is ranked, and they're hot right now. Meanwhile, you look at KU's region and it's like,

okay, the one seed again, Florida has been dominant. They're number two right now on Kenpom, but then you go to the next best team. St. John's right now is 11th on Kenpom, which is still a really good ranking, but that's a little lower than some of those other twos. In fact, it is the lowest among the two seeds. You look at the three seed in the region is Texas Tech

and they're more like a two seed, getting seventh right now on Ken Palm. But you know, you go further down the line and you end up with teams that have certain flaws that have been good this season or that don't kind of qualify for some of the filtration that we've done. And I do think it is an okay path for Kansas

when there have been a lot of other years when it's felt like they've been kind of the bracket of death or the bracket of doom, so to speak. Now, the last question I have here, it's something I teased on Sunday's episode. What would be a good tournament run for Kansas? I think if you're viewing this from the perspective of the preseason expectations, you were the

number one team. So at that point, the only thing that is going to suffice is making a final four realistic. I guess you could say making an elite eight because typically making an elite eight, like those games kind of become crap shoots. They're such tough games to win. But realistically, KU, you know, once conference championships, they want final fours, they want national championships. And so if you're viewing it from the perspective

of the Kansas program standards, as well as where you were before the season started, it would be to make a run to a final four. If we're approaching this though, from the perspective, which I think you almost kind of have to do, because preseason expectations are at the end of the day, like kind of made up and things that we hope and wish for and think,

but we don't actually know. And so for viewing this, again, it'll get difficult because if you're just talking about at the end of November when they beat Duke, you'd have those same expectations. But if we're just viewing this from the perspective of like where you were at the end of the big 12 regular season or where you are, after the big 12th tournament last week,

I think making the sweet 16 would be a great tournament run for this team. You know, if you're a polo, a first round win over John Calipari and then upset a two seed in St. John's, like that would be a really good tournament run for Kansas to where I think in a year where you had the worst seed of the Bills South era for you,

if you could still make it to a Sweet 16, especially because you haven't made a Sweet 16 outside of the national title year, which you do get bonus points for it because you did win a title and that's pretty cool. Um, but that's your only sweet 16 cents to volunteer Graham graduated. Right. And again, screwed over a little bit because 2020 with the COVID year, but point B, if you can make a sweet 16, I think that's a successful tournament run for KU.

The question becomes if Kansas wins their first round matchup and then loses, let's say a close game to St. John's. We've seen a lot of these second round games for kids where they've gotten blown out. Would that be would people be OK with that as a tournament run, right? Or are people down enough on this team that they would be accepting of that?

Or would it just be more chaos and upset with where things were? I don't know. That's a good question. But yeah, I think if you told me right now, kids makes a sweet 16, but no further, you taking it or leaving it, I think I might take it. All right, that'll do it for this episode

of Lockdown Jayhawks. You can find our show anywhere you get your podcasts, including on our YouTube page. We'll see you on a bonus episode talking about who can win the national championship to help you out with your bracket ball. Plenty more KU basketball content coming at you throughout the rest of the week.