Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Why the 2025 Big 12 Tournament is the Most Important for Kansas Basketball in the Bill Self Era

Starting point is 00:00:00 On today's Locked on Jayhawks, why this is the most important Big 12 tournament of Bill Sov's time at Kansas. And we're going to go over what the best path, the worst path, what the most beneficial path for KU to their resume would be all that and more on today's edition of Locked on Jayhawks. You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks part of the locked on podcast network your team every day. What's going on Derek Johnson here this is locked on Jayhawks thanks for making it your first listen every day.

Starting point is 00:00:36 Thank you to the everydayers catching each and every show and thank you for joining us wherever you podcast or on our YouTube page on today's edition. We're going to be breaking down why this is the most important big 12 tournament for Bill Self at Kansas and also what the best and worst paths could possibly be for for KU among the possibilities of who they could play. What would be the best path for them to build their resume the most to try to move up that NCAA tournament seed line? And I'll give a little bit of an update at the end on the KU baseball team. We won a couple more games since we last talked

Starting point is 00:01:07 and the women's basketball team season likely coming to a close today's episode of the show is brought to you by the 2025 all new Nissan Armada stay with us for the Armada team of the week coming up later in the episode. So Kansas in the big 12 tournament will be played on Wednesday night. They get a first round by, but they don't get the double by like the team short in the top four.

Starting point is 00:01:31 And I think there's a real question if is this the most important Big 12 tournament that Bill Suv has had in his time at Kansas? And it becomes difficult if you parse that out, like what does important truly mean? You could maybe argue his first year at the University of Kansas, right? I mean, it's your first year,

Starting point is 00:01:50 you're trying to prove yourself to the fan base, you didn't win the Big 12 in the regular season, but I don't know, that team still got a four seed, made it to the Elite Eight, like they lost in the Big 12 semi-finals. I think there's something to the notion of a lot of years we look at the Big 12 tournament starting and There have been a lot of years in the past where Kansas already had a one seed pretty much secured

Starting point is 00:02:10 Where we went into the the Big 12 tournament going? Yeah, they lose the you know at any point They're still gonna get a one seed, right? Maybe the difference is getting the number two overall one seed or the number four overall one seed or the number one overall one Seed right and there have been other years where yeah It has been the difference of if you win the big 12 tournament or not is going to depend on if you get one of the one seeds or maybe if you get one of the first two seeds. At the end of the day, like how important does that really make

Starting point is 00:02:35 it for Kansas? There are other years where the results have been important, you grabbing momentum from it has been important. But I don't think you could say that you knew that was going to be the case coming into the big 12 tournament and those. And so you look at this year, does it just become something as simple to say your worst teams are going to need the conference tournament the most, whereas the best teams have proven over the course of the majority of the season that they just are a good team and you don't need that last ditch effort in the conference tournament to prove that's kind of the case.

Starting point is 00:03:06 I think there is something that makes sense there. You could certainly argue a couple other ones like the 2007 Big 12 tournament became important because that was the, I guess, the trial run of the Mario Chalmers chop play where he hits the shot, sends this to overtime, then they beat Texas in overtime in the Big 12 championship. So like that ended up battering a year later, clearly. But again, it's not like that was a big swing to their seed or,

Starting point is 00:03:30 you know, if they won or lost that game, it's not like they, there's going to be a huge swing and then where they were in the NCAA tournament. 2018, again, you could argue that they just lost by 18 in the regular season finale to Oklahoma State. Yudoke Zabukye was hurt at that point and it was kind of the start of Silvio De Sosa and Malik Newman's run. And getting hot into the NCAA tournament was important. But again, big picture, if you lose to West Virginia in the finals, maybe they're a two seed instead of a one,

Starting point is 00:03:57 but it's not a huge difference, right? 2019 became important because they didn't win the league. They still wound up with a four in Kansas City though. So as much as you could say, you know, if that team beats Iowa State in the big 12 championship instead of losing to Marial Shayok, just hitting every shot in Iowa State winning that game, you know, do they get a three seed?

Starting point is 00:04:16 Do they get a bit more favorable of the path? I mean, they got a four seed where the region was in Kansas City. I guess it could have been better if they avoided Auburn as the five but like, I don't know that team wasn't really going places anyway. 2021 was pretty important because at that point in time they were hot like that was a team that didn't start great. I think they started like 12 and

Starting point is 00:04:35 seven or something finished hot. They beat that Baylor team who goes on to win the title on senior day. And they win their first week of tournament game. But then they have a run through of COVID with the team that bounces them. That one would have been pretty important because it could have kept their momentum going. And who knows, maybe if they do keep playing the big tournament that year and win some more games, what if they work into the two line even,

Starting point is 00:04:53 and then you're avoiding USC? But again, based on the injuries they had and the COVID they were having to deal with and some of the issues that team had in general, was that team going to go on that much farther run? I don't know. 2022 was very important. They were going to be a one or two seed regardless. Obviously ended up getting a one,

Starting point is 00:05:10 but that big 12 tournament allowed Remy Martin runway to get going. But see all the ones that we've kind of talked about here because you look at the last two years no bill self two years ago. No Kevin Kohler. No Hunter Dickinson last year. When you look at all of

Starting point is 00:05:26 those other ones I mentioned, it was Oh, are you going to get a one or two seat or, you know, three or four seat or whatever. And I think the big deal you could say the impact of the Big 12 tournament was clearly bigger in 2022, right getting hot there having Remy playing a role that was super important the 2018 The 2018 run, what that provided with LeBanem and getting Malik Newman hot and getting confidence Sylvia D'Souza. Those were the most important results, I would say,

Starting point is 00:05:53 of the Big 12 tournament in Belfast time in Kansas. But going into a Big 12 tournament, I think you could argue this is the one because there is more impact that is probably going to be had or there's an opportunity to be had, I guess I should say, based on what happens on this Big 12 tournament than any of those others.

Starting point is 00:06:10 Because again, the difference there and a lot of those other ones is a one or a two seed. This Kansas team, you know, with from, are they gonna be an eight seed beating Arizona? You lose in the first game, maybe you drop back down to an eight seed, right? Or maybe at the very least, you're at your seven seed. I mean, put this tweet out there.

Starting point is 00:06:27 Graham Doren, who we had on the show. What was that a week or two ago? It was great bracketology work. And he sent this out after Kansas beat Arizona on X at Graham Doren on Twitter over there. He said, Kansas Saturday, fourth quad one, a win to previous victories over Duke, Michigan State and Iowa State. Jayhawks should avoid the dreaded 8-9 game. He has them likely as a 6 or 7 at this point in time I'm gonna try to get Graham back on the show sometime later this week. I think that'd be good

Starting point is 00:06:57 Obviously, he'll be extra busy with bracket ology stuff. So we'll see if it works out and everything but point being You could make the argument that a bad loss in the first game you play to either UCF or Utah could drop you back down to an eight or at the very least solidifies a seven versus, you know, you win that first game. What if you beat Arizona again? Do you move up to a six for sure? Do you have a chance that if you can make it to the big 12 championship game, moving up to the five line even, right? What if you win the big 12 championship? Like how much of a difference is there really between the teams on the, say the four line

Starting point is 00:07:30 versus where Kansas is right now? Like one strong run over a week of play, would that be enough for KU to get above some of those teams? Cause you're looking right now, it's like Clemson, Purdue, Maryland, Wisconsin. And what's interesting is you look at like a place like the net ratings.

Starting point is 00:07:50 Kansas is 18th. So like I know they don't view the net ratings as like a ranking tool. They more so view it as a this is going to provide us the rankings to give the quad victories. Right. And that becomes more important. But if you are looking to that from that standpoint,

Starting point is 00:08:04 then they are closer to that four or five line, right? And then if you beat Arizona again, who is being seen as kind of on that five line right now, do you hop in front of them? So I think there's a wider range. Even if you think four is outlandish or eight is outlandish, I still would say those are on the, at least,

Starting point is 00:08:21 even if it's a 0.5 percentile chance of happening, those are on the outskirts of things. Even if you're just talking the middle range, which is five to seven seed difference based on how you do in the big 12 tournament, that is a wider line than we're used to with these games where in years past, like seriously, I remember some years when I was doing radio, like having conversations of should they just sit guys, right? Not worry about, you know, getting anybody injured or should they just throw out some like ridiculous lineups just like test it and see how it goes.

Starting point is 00:08:50 Because that's kind of what up a game and Bill self never operated and doing those things because he always wanted to win is is there was one year where both self was like well if you're going to play in it you might as well win it right. If you're competitive, you might as well win it, right? If you're competitive, you might as well win the thing, right? I think that is important. But this one is, it's a different level of importance because it's not the same ceiling of a team as some of those other schools. But with some of the issues that this team has, you want to get as good of a draw as possible. Now you could actually make the argument that you'd prefer to have a six or seven seed because maybe the draws a little bit better If you can win your first game, maybe the second round matchup is a little bit better

Starting point is 00:09:30 Maybe you feel better about this team playing, you know a ten seed who's from a power five wonder performed It's supposed to play to 12 seed who's like Samford last year who can you'll play a unique style and give you fits Those are all valid and I think logical arguments you can have. But in terms of, you know, really feeling like above and beyond the seating, feeling like you were playing good basketball. If we're talking this new season stuff, you're three and two in the new season. It doesn't sound that great. We just have to think about a little more. You played pretty well against Texas Tech. They just shot well from three and it was a bad matchup for you, right? They normally shoot well from three, but you know what I meant. With Houston, you played them tough on the road, right?

Starting point is 00:10:07 You beat a good Arizona team. If you do make a run in this big 12th tournament, I'm not even saying win the thing, right? Win two or three games. You are gonna feel like you're playing much better ball than you were, you know, a couple of weeks ago. And that above all, might be the most important part of this

Starting point is 00:10:21 that in the same way that, yeah, in 2018 and 2022, some guys started finding their roles, and you hit a bit of hot, hot streak and you found some momentum headed into the NCAA tournament. That's what you're kind of going for this year, in addition to that wide range of what the seating could be. All right, let's talk what would be the toughest path for KU, the maybe easiest path quote unquote, and what the best path would be for the resume. We'll get to all that on this episode of Locked on Jayhawks.

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Starting point is 00:12:10 and Quad One games are defined as top 50 opponents on neutral courts, which obviously this will go down as a neutral court. Well, UCF is ranked 77th in the current net ratings and Utah is ranked 68th. So I don't see either of those teams with the win over the other boosting high enough into the top 50. Meaning that especially because then you would have to beat them, right?

Starting point is 00:12:33 Meaning that you're probably not going to get a quad one victory out of this, right? That kind of makes a lot of sense here. Okay. So that one becomes kind of a wash in terms of which would be the best for your resume, which I'm kind of doing here first. Obviously, if you win that game, regardless, you're playing Arizona. There's no way around it. So that would clearly be a Quad One game for KU, Quad One opportunity, Quad One A opportunity. That is Arizona's net rating is very good. They're in the top 15 there. Then if you move on to the semifinals,

Starting point is 00:13:02 you have the option, the 10-15 matchup is K- is K state Arizona State. And if it were one of those teams that would obviously take a run from either of those you'd hope it would not be if you're trying to build the resume because neither of those would be a quad one victory for KU Baylor is currently ranked 31st in the net rating. So at that point, you wouldn't really care if it's Baylor or Texas Tech. In terms of resume, it would count as a quad one victory, but they have those quad one a victories, which are like the premium of the

Starting point is 00:13:28 premium. And that would be with Texas Tech. So if you're looking to build a resume, you just want the better seeds here in theory. And then yeah, you would want to play Houston in the championship game, right? If you're just trying to build the resume, that would be what you're trying to do, especially if you got to the gold championship game and found a way to beat Houston at that point, when you had two close losses to him, and then you had a win over him, that would be what you're trying to do, especially if you got to the gold championship game and found a way to beat Houston at that point, when you had two close losses to him, and then you had a win over him, that would look

Starting point is 00:13:49 really, really good on your resume. And who knows, maybe that would be enough to move that four line at the very least, I think that would get you to that five line. Okay, but what about the best path? If you just want them to go far, like the easiest path, quote unquote, versus the hardest path, I think that first matchup, there is something to be said about the idea that, you know, it's really hard to beat a team three times, right. And that

Starting point is 00:14:11 is the case with if you end up playing UCF, again, but I think you kind of got their best shot in a certain way in the game in our fieldhouse. And then obviously, you did not get that in the game that was down in Orlando. I think that was KJ Adams like first game back. I could be wrong with that. And he's playing, you know, even better ball right now. I would say you would want to play UCF in that situation.

Starting point is 00:14:35 Utah, even though you do have the factor that they don't have the same head coach when they beat you and you'd have the revenge factor and since beating you and to being Kansas and Kansas State They've lost four or five games. I Just look at Utah as a team that stylistically gonna shoot more threes and I think I would rather play UCF in that situation Then obviously again, you don't really have a choice with Arizona if you do make it to the semi-final round I mean the obvious answer would be saying oh, well, I'll love to take on the 15 seat Arizona State. I don't really think that's realistic. Is it even realistic to ask of Kansas State

Starting point is 00:15:10 to beat Baylor and then Texas Tech? I don't know, probably not. They did have that one really hot stretch back in what, was that like late January, early February, but you know, we kindled that. So like if we're talking realistically, would you rather play Baylor or Texas Tech? This one feels definitely to me, would be Baylor, right?

Starting point is 00:15:27 I mean, they're the worst basketball team in general, but you were destroying them in the first half. You got destroyed in the second half, but like Texas Tech is a, I think bigger matchup problem for you. I think Hunter Dickinson gives Norjot Omer more trouble on the offensive end if he is going to the high level, then he does with JT Toppin necessarily.

Starting point is 00:15:49 Like I think the back and forth is a little bit different there. So yeah, you'd be rooting for Baylor in that situation. None of the top end of the bracket, like realistically who could get by? I think you're looking at either Houston, BYU or Iowa State who makes it out of the top. I mean, you just wouldn't want to play Houston

Starting point is 00:16:04 from a standpoint of like they're the best team, but Kansas has played them close and should have won the first game. Whereas you look at the BYU matchup, that's a bad matchup for them. You look at the Iowa State matchup, okay, they beat them by double digits in Allen Fieldhouse, but they had some injury to Mamchelovich

Starting point is 00:16:20 who did not play in either game. So that's a different version of them. Plus you have the fan factor of Iowa State. I almost would most want to play Houston. Just from a standpoint of like, again, Houston is the best team of those. I don't want that to be taken out of context. But from a standpoint of this Kansas team, you know,

Starting point is 00:16:37 playing better against upper echelon competition, they've done that this year, right? They played well against Houston. They played well against Duke. They played well against Michigan State. The bigger the game has been, they typically have, you? They played well against Houston. They played well against Duke. They played well against Michigan State. The bigger the game has been, they typically have played well in those games. And obviously there are exceptions to that rule,

Starting point is 00:16:51 but I think that stylistically, I don't necessarily hate that as much as I hate the other two. And it would also go down as the best loss or the best win, which would give you the best risk reward of that kind of possibility. So I think that would be the best possible lineage for KU. The worst would be, I guess, Utah, and then Texas Tech, if you beat Arizona playing in the semis and then, I don't know, maybe a red hot Iowa State where their fans are, you know, just sold out the play. I mean, if you are used really hot right now to like that, that would would be bad But at least you'd have much more the home court in the the Kansas City matchup there All right, we're gonna finish up here a little KU bat baseball and KU women's basketball update. This is locked on Jay Hawks

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Starting point is 00:18:58 and one at this point in time. Now you're listening to this on Tuesday, they are playing on tonight. And then they're also playing Wednesday night. They're at Minnesota it'll be a fun one on the road against Big Ten opponent and Interesting I guess as well because KU's home run leader Jackson Haughey he was previously a Minnesota State man Kato and I guess Minnesota let him get out of the territory and come to KU. Now he's leading them in home run. So we'll see if he can do that a bit of a homecoming for him. But after that it is the Big 12 opener for KU. They're going to be at home for three games set with Baylor.

Starting point is 00:19:33 That'll be starting on Friday. And I think I saw him Friday night, which the weather is going to be fantastic. I forget the games at six or seven, but they're going to be doing dollar dog night. So, I mean, they've been getting great student support already. I don't get great support by everyone to get dollar dogs. Kansas has been killing it so far. Big 12 opener against Baylor. Really cool stuff of what the KU baseball team

Starting point is 00:19:53 is putting together right now, and hopefully they can keep it rolling and, you know, move on to the NCAA tournament. Meanwhile, for KU women's basketball, their season just came to a close. I guess it's possible, I don't know if they get into the NIT or something like that, but 16 and 14 records. I don't know that I'm expecting that, but I guess

Starting point is 00:20:10 that is possible. Six and 13 against Big 12 teams, six and 12 in the regular season. They lost their first Big 12 tournament game against Texas Tech team, who was the lowest team in the Big 12 tournament to advance through the first round. So that wasn't great. Now, Kansas did have a lot of injuries, I guess, not just to finish the season, but all season long, right? I mean, you start with Wyvett Mayberry, who just missed the whole season after being a really solid player for KU the past couple years after transferring in from Tulsa. And they had some injuries in the final game, they had some injuries throughout the season. I mean, it was kind of a mess with that. And unfortunately, it didn't feel like,

Starting point is 00:20:45 I don't know, it felt like you wasted, is too strong a word, but it did feel like a little bit, you wasted a year of Samaya Nichols with how good she can be. And she was battling some injury stuff this year too. And obviously when you have injuries around the team, it's not always somebody's fault. Sometimes that stuff just kind of happens.

Starting point is 00:21:01 But they do have an awesome, awesome, awesome recruiting class coming in for this next season. So they do have an awesome, awesome, awesome recruiting class coming in for this next season. So if they can blend that in nicely, if, you know, enough of those players are ready to go and ready to roll and ready to have an impact at a high level, you blend that in with what will be a junior year, Samia Nichols, who, you know, already took a big step this year from, I was already really good as a freshman, took a step forward this year. You expect another step next year as a junior, some other returnees,

Starting point is 00:21:24 you hope to get Wyvett Mayberry back, right? If she can take a medical redshirt for forward this year. You expect another step next year as a junior. Some other returnees, you hope to get Wyvett Mayberry back, right? If she can take a medical redshirt for missing the year. The big one is going to be, can they get a good setter in the transfer portal? Because they didn't really have that. They're playing undersized in a lot of games this year. Can you go out and get that missing piece there? Because this team on paper that I think both in terms of outside expectations, based on the recruiting classes you're bringing in,

Starting point is 00:21:44 based on the past couple you're bringing in, based on the past couple of years at KU where you have three straight, I guess, whatever year, like two NCAA tournament appearances and an MIT championship over a three year period before this year, the expectations have gotten a little higher

Starting point is 00:21:57 and I think the expectations rightfully show, so should be for this team to make it to the NCAA tournament again next season. And so with, you know, certain pressures come certain expectations or vice versa. I think they have the core of the roster to be able to get it done. And then I think the hope would be you make it to the tournament next year. And then two years from now, at what point would be a senior year, some eye-knuckles, all this good freshman recruiting class would then be sophomores. I think the goal

Starting point is 00:22:22 would be to make, you know, win a couple of games in the NCAA tournament, right? Because still looking for that second weekend run, so to speak, I know they got close in terms of, you know, playing USC in the tournament last year and played them tight in that second round game. And obviously they were, you know, playing neck and neck in the first half of the two years before that against Stanford, but I think that is the expectation.

Starting point is 00:22:43 And, you know, there's no reason Kansas woman's team can't be a powerhouse too. They have same facilities the KU does. And I think you're gonna start to see that with, I mean, Smy Nichols already coming in and some of this other freshmen recruiting class that they have coming in. And now that they are getting rolling

Starting point is 00:22:58 and they have some of these tournaments under their belt, maybe some proof of concept, maybe those recruiting classes will be a little bit more often as also they've benefited from some of these recruits being local in a certain standpoint. So a big off season for the KU women's basketball team. And I guess like we said, maybe there will be an NIT or something like that. All right. That'll do it for this episode of Lockdown Jayhawks.

Starting point is 00:23:18 You can find your show anywhere you get your podcast. We'll be back tomorrow for KU Big 12 Tournament Preview against whoever they play, Utah or UCF. We'll discuss tomorrow anywhere you get your podcast. We'll be back tomorrow for KU Big 12 tournament preview against whoever they play Utah or UCF will discuss tomorrow anywhere you get your podcasts or on our YouTube page. See you then.

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Why the 2025 Big 12 Tournament is the Most Important for Kansas Basketball in the Bill Self Era

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