Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Why the Kansas Jayhawks Have Clinched an NCAA Tournament 1-seed, and What's the Path to #1 Overall?

Episode Date: March 2, 2023

Why the Kansas Jayhawks men's basketball team has clinched one of the four 1-seeds in the 2023 NCAA Tournament, and what is the path for Bill Self's squad to get the #1 overall from Houston and Alabama. Plus, does it really matter about KU being in the Midwest in Kansas City versus say the West in Las Vegas. Lots of Quad 1 talk and more.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKEDON15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.FanDuelMake Every Moment More. Place your first FIVE DOLLAR bet to get ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS in Free Bets – win or lose! Visit Fanduel.com/LockedOn today to get startedFANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On today's Locked on Jayhawks, why Kansas has already clinched one of the 4-1 seeds in the NCAA tournament, what their case is to try to get the No. 1 overall seed, and where that path might lie for KU. You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. I'm Derek Johnson. You can hear me as well. Rock Chalk Sports Talk, Monday through Friday from 3 to 6 p.m. on KLWN in Lawrence, your flagship station in Lawrence. Thanks for making Locked on Jayhawks your first listen every day.

We are free and available wherever you get any of your podcasts. You can also find us on YouTube and subscribe to the show. And on today's edition of Locked on Jayhawks, we're going to be discussing why Kansas has clinched a one seed in the NCAA tournament for one of the four teams, where they sit in terms of being the number one overall seed, possibly getting the Midwest, what they need to do moving forward to secure that.

Or if it doesn't happen, what could be the cause of that? And then we'll have a little bit of a discussion at the end of, would you rather be the one seat in the Midwest or be somewhere else where you can kind of have your back against the wall? Because certainly a lot of local KU fans have a bit of, I don't know, nightmares still from the 2017 Elite Eight that took place in Kansas City, which is where the Midwest Regional will be this year as well. So first things first, let's examine KU's one seed candidacy right now and see where things kind of stand out.

KU came out when the original NCAA tournament early mock selection committee thing, whatever you want to call it, they came in as the fourth one seed. And that was a little bit weird because I like with them having as many quad one wins that they have, they'd at least be the three, if not the second one seed. But then there were some talk afterwards that the way the committee put it together, that it maybe took into account before Purdue law that week to like Maryland on the road.

And then from that point, Kansas later day after it was got a victory over Baylor, which wasn't just a quad one win it's a like they have they have even higher tier it's like quad one which is like the highest tier of quad one wins um it was that and then uh like last week Purdue loses again Kansas has continued to win out here so you're just basing on. Kansas is for sure in front of Purdue at this point. And while Purdue has lost twice, Kansas, Alabama, and Houston have all won out. So realistically, what that means is that those three schools have kind of separated themselves from the pack. And then you kind of have a competition for that fourth one seed with probably Purdue, UCLA.

I don't know. Maybe if Arizona wins out from here, they just have the lost Arizona State. But maybe if they went out from here, they win against UCLA on Saturday. They win the Pac-12 tournament. Maybe they're in contention. And then Texas. And I don't know. Maybe you could throw Baylor in the hat.

If Baylor wins out and they win the Big 12 tournament, maybe they could get a one seed, right? So maybe there's like five schools that are competing for that, that final one seed. And maybe I'm forgetting someone like a Tennessee or something. I don't know. But realistically those top three have worked themselves out. And so Kansas is at the very least the third one seed, very best.

They are the one, one seed, depending where you look, they're going to be in different spots. You know, if, if you look at like bracket matrix they're one of the top three one seeds if you look at um like well the other day had them into the midwest which meant they're hopping over houston who is slightly closer mileage wise to the midwest than they are the south which means means it's not that Kansas has to get the number one overall

to get the Midwest. They just have to be ahead of Houston. Now, that might take getting the number one overall to get to, or if Alabama's the number one overall, Kansas the number two, one overall, then you would get the Midwest. But you do have to jump Houston. You would think Houston would be in the South, but, yeah, they're actually a handful of miles or something closer to the Midwest. Now that doesn't mean that they would pick that because if you are the number

one overall seed, you do tell the NCAA, which you'd prefer. So I don't know what Houston would tell them, but yeah, just be safe. Just be ahead of Houston in that scenario. If you do want to get the Midwest now, like Graham Doran, who we've had on RCST has talked about that. He has Kansas now as the number one overall. You look at that he has Kansas now as the number one overall. You look at certain sites, they have them the number one overall. You look at other sites, they have them maybe as the number two or number three. They're somewhere in that range. They're somewhere in that range.

And I don't think there's a lot of separation between those three, which means what happens on the stretch here is going to have a determining factor. But KU has for sure at least clinched one of the one seeds in general in my eyes because basically if you look at those top three as being in their own category now for Kansas the most games they could lose moving forward is only two and if they do lose their next two games it would be at Texas which that's not going to be held against them like at all and then it would be in the quarter final round of the big 12 tournament which would be at that point i guess right now would be like the the winner of the playing game between texas tech and i think west virginia which um if it's west virginia you'd be playing they're in the top 30 you'd be playing a for a quad one game if it's a top 50 team in the net rankings on a neutral site which west virginia clearly would be that's quad one game if it's a top 50 team in the net rankings on a neutral site which west virginia

clearly would be that's quad one games that'd be a quad one loss that wouldn't be held against them texas tech is just outside that so it would be a quad two unless they i don't know depends what happens for them saturday if they just like jump up in the the net rankings um and i guess if if texas tech does beat you then maybe they do move up into the top 50, so it becomes quad one loss. Either way, it would not be bad losses, their next two games. And on top of it, Bill Self's only lost twice in the Big 12 quarterfinals before, so you don't really expect it to happen. Point being, even if the disaster scenario happens where KU loses both,

and like Purdue and UCLA win out, Texas wins out like I guess you could argue Texas could jump Kansas because if Texas beats Kansas on on Saturday and they beat TCU and now they share the Big 12 and then Texas wins the Big 12 tournament and KU does not Texas would jump KU in that circumstance but now KU would still be the fourth one seed and I don't think there's really a way that Purdue or UCLA jumps them if we just go back to when the first came seed and i don't think there's really a way that purdue or ucla jumps them if we just go back to when the first came out and they basically said that or there's basically rumored that yeah they didn't take into account yet the maryland loss for purdue that means from that point on purdue has lost twice and even if purdue wins out from here and kansas loses the next two then both would have lost twice kansas would have accrued more quality wins over that period of time. And you know, they would have at that point won a big 12 title,

which probably means more than a big 10 title without as difficult as the big 12 is. Even if UCLA wins out, UCLA does not have very many quality victories. They're a very good team. I think UCLA could win a national title, but in terms of how you're seeding the bracket, you're doing it based on resume and Kansas is going to have an overwhelmingly better resume than UCLA so no matter what happens with those two schools I think Kansas is going to be in front of them with the resume Kansas already has 15 quad one wins even if Purdue wins out like I think they're uh their next two games are not quad one but they're both like Illinois at home is, is not quite there.

And they play, I don't know. I forget who on the road that it's just outside of that. So it's possible. One of those could be quad one. I don't know how many quad ones they'd have in a big, big 10 championship run, like maybe two of the games.

So maybe they could get up to 12 quad one wins. Kansas is 15. You would still be beating them by three in that scenario. Both would be conference champions. Both would have lost twice exactly since the original reveal came out. Like it would be Kansas over Purdue. So I think Kansas has clinched one of the onesies. The question is how high can they get? And the more interesting part of that to me is can they get the number one overall seed? Clearly? Yes, they can. Some prognosticators are expecting them to be that right now, but what get the number one overall seed clearly yes they can some prognosticators are expecting them to be that right now but what is the path what is the path to doing that because

if it is kind of split among prognosticators and alabama and houston both went out what does that mean for ku okay you clearly has the toughest path because the big 12 and the big 12 tournament upcoming so does that mean they're just going to hop everyone and that's part of this that we don't totally know how large of the gap when that original top four came out how large of a gap was it with alabama and houston to where purdue and kansas were or was there not that big of a gap at all and so that's kind of where the the difference comes in over some people thinking that ku is the number one overall right now and they just got to take care of business to hold on to it, versus maybe some others thinking, no, it's still Alabama or Houston,

because the Houston one is a tough scenario. It's not a team that has as many quad one wins and everything because of the conference they play in, but they're a very good team. Alabama does have a lot of the quality victories, not quite as many as Kansas. They're kind of in between both. They're a very good team. Kansas has all the resume on their side.

Let's discuss more about the resume and where kind of things sit among some of these between both. They're a very good team. Kansas has all the resume on their side. Let's discuss more about the resume and where kind of things sit among some of these top schools for that number one overall seed in just a second. But first, this episode of Locked on Jayhawks is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. The midway point of the NBA season is here, and now is the perfect time to download FanDuel, America's number one sportsbook, because new customers get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000. That's bonus bets back if your first bet doesn't win. Just

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So subscribe to our YouTube channel. Give us a good review if you could thumbs up review wherever you uh get your podcast so we have this page and this is shout out to bart torvik does great work you know everybody talks about ken palm ken palm great stuff as well i use it all the time i also use bart torvik a lot which is another metric site similar to Ken Palm does a few different things like Bart Torvik. I believe that the difference in the metric is it only takes into account like the winning portion of the game. So I don't know what the cutoff is and how it decides this. But, you know, let's say you're up 12 with two minutes to go. Then it stops counting those final two minutes, possibly for the efficiency because the game's in the book.

So slightly different numbers and some of the things. But nonetheless, it has this handy-dandy tool on Bartorvik's website where it's like the team sheet tool. And so as you can see here, these rankings are sorted by the net rankings, which Kansas comes in at number six. To be clear, the NCAA Tournament Committee doesn't really look at where you are ranked in the net rankings.

They just use the net rankings to decide how many quadrant victories you have. But you can see here, Kansas has 15 quad one victories. They're 15 and five. Also 4-0 against quad two. And they haven't lost a quad two, quad three, or quad four game, which is also very, very impressive. You compare it to the two schools. The schools that they're most contending for, for that number one overall seat, it's Alabama and Houston.

And to be clear, I think the only schools that can get the number one overall seat at this point are Houston, Alabama, and Kansas. So you look at Houston, they're four and one in quad one. And part of it is they just don't get as many opportunities. They're a really good team. They would rack up a lot of quad one victories if they had the chance but also does that get held against them and maybe it should be held against them in just a resume perspective right like you're not penalizing them from removing them from being a one seed but maybe to a team that has been a little

more battle tested and really had to earn that rugged path to getting that you give them the reward i don't know but they are 12 and 1 versus quad 1 quad 2 which shows you how good they have just been overall in general and then you look at alabama 9 and 4 versus quad 1 6 and 0 versus quad 2 15 and 4 overall kansas with the 15 and 4 there's also the quad 1a metric which looks at even the higher tier of the quad 1 victories you got houston at 2 and 1 alab Houston at two and one Alabama at four and three. Kansas has six of those with a six and four record. Only Baylor has more on this list here with the quad one, a it's seven and five, which I guess is part of the reason why I think they could still maybe emerge

into a one seat if they were to kind of win out and win the big 12 tournament and maybe get one of those final one seats. But you just look at the quad one wins. Kansas has 15. Second is Baylor with 11. Third is Texas with 10. Purdue, Alabama, K-State are next at nine. I mean, Kansas could not win another game and those, any of those schools could win

out and they still might not surpass Kansas in quad one wins. That is absolutely ridiculous. If you also look at the total of quad one plus quad two kansas is 19 and five those 19 wins are four more than second second is alabama and baylor they both have 15 of them so kansas is sizably in front of these other schools in terms of the amassed victories against quad one and everything it's hard for me not to view at the very least with kansas and alabama and say well if you want to make the argument for houston over Kansas, that's all based on you just thinking Houston is a better team, but they just didn't get the chance to play the schedule.

If you look at it between Kansas and Alabama, like sure, you might say, ah, we think Alabama is a bit better of a team, but they play in that more difficult schedule than Houston does to where you can at least compare it more resume wise. Kansas is six and one better against quad one they're four and one they're against quad one plus quad two they have two more victories against quad one a than alabama now another metric that the committee uses they do use this you can see this in the quality range the bpi the kp the the sagarin and the average if you're watching with us on youtube and they, they like to use

the Sagarin Kansas up to three. So the fact that they're neck and neck with Houston and Alabama, there could mean that they rely on more of the resume stuff. And if the resume stuff comes in, Kansas obviously knocks it out of the ballpark with those other schools in the quad one and quad one plus two kind of victories there. So those are all things that I think certainly favors Kansas. And then the other numbers that they use, I think even more than those other ones, is the KPI, the strength of record, and the average. I don't know to be clear how much they do use the BPI

and the Ken Palm and the Sagarin. I do know, I believe Sagarin has been part of their use, like I said. But with the KPI and the Ken Palm and the Sagarin. I do know, I believe Sagarin has been part of their use, like I said, but with the KPI and the strength of record, those are clearly being abused. And that one, both metrics are based on their resume metrics. So what have you accomplished? How much have you beaten these teams by? And all those things.

Houston's fifth in KPI. They're third in strength of record. KU beats them both in there. They're basically tied with Alabama because they're two and one. The other one's one and two. But again, you rely then on the tiebreaker. The quad one wins and boom, Kansas is kind of in front. So I think what I'm saying right now is that Kansas is probably the number one overall seed.

But again, it is close enough that it will kind of depend on what happens from here to determine who gets it. In terms of what they need to do to probably clinch that number one overall seed, I mean, I think it's kind of clear right now if Kansas wins out, they're going to get the number one overall seed. They might be the number one overall seed right now, as we just discussed, but if they win out, they're going to add so many more quality wins that it will for sure be them. No debate. So if they went out, that's the number one overall seed.

We can get into the idea of like, oh, if Alabama loses this and Houston loses that, then yes, sure. I think Houston, for sure, to continue to have a chance of getting the number one overall, they have to win out, which they're going to be expected to do. They do have a kind of tough game at Memphis this weekend, and then we'll see what the AAC tournament looks like. But realistically, Houston is going to win out. If Houston loses even one game, I think it's most likely they don't get the number one overall seed, and then it's at that point between Kansas and Alabama. If Alabama were to win the SEC tournament and win out this week,

for Kansas, if you were to lose one more game, so either at Texas or the big 12 tournament, they might lean Alabama. I do think in that scenario, losing at Texas, then winning the big 12 tournament would be better than losing, um, or beating Texas and then losing in the first or second round of the big 12 tournament. But maybe not because the committee also over the past few years, hasn't valued the big 12 or not the big 12, just the conference tournaments in general as much. And they've kind of placed things together maybe as we go into the week

and they haven't viewed it as much as like a big boost. They've more viewed it as, Oh, it's just one extra game to your season long, which at that point is over 30 games. So it's not going to have as big of an impact. So that's certainly something to keep an eye on. But yeah,

I think Kansas just kind of controls their own destiny. If you lose one more time the rest of the way, you'll still have a shot. But I think, I guess what would help you there is that if you only lose one more game, then you're either a regular season Big 12 outright champions in the toughest league we've seen in at least 20 years, or you're winning the big 12 tournament, which is going to be such a gauntlet that you might get there anyway. So I guess Alabama is kind of the one trick there. I think for Houston to be ahead of Kansas, they probably have to win out and hope Kansas maybe even loses twice. But at the very least,

if Houston wins out and Kansas loses once it's in play, but I still think Kansas would be in front of him just because of how hard the schedule is. We're going to finish things up here with locked on Jayhawks with a fun little, I guess, I don't know, hypothetical question that in just a second. Here's the question. Would you rather be the one seed in the east or the west? East is in Philadelphia this year. West is in Las Vegas or the one seed in Kansas City. Doesn't matter.

I don't know. So here's the pro for the East or the West. Pro for the East or the West is that you can kind of play with your backs to the wall. There's something nice, and we've heard this from past players and coaches, about getting to go on almost like a road trip and getting that team bonding for a whole week while you're out there for possibly the Sweet 16 and lead eight and it can help with team unity and again that backs against the wall type of thing we also know kansas fans travel very well that no matter where they are like it wouldn't be as much if they're in kansas city it'd be way more ku fans because

it'd be majority of the building wherever they go they still might have a majority of the building but instead of it being like you know 80 kansas% Kansas fans and 90% in Kansas city, it might be 55%, right? It depends the other schools that are there. If you have other blue bloods, then at that point it becomes a lesson number, but you know, that that's kind of the pro there, the con to being in the East or the West is that, and I think this is especially true for the West. Uh, the East may be less so this year, but with the West, most likely, the two seed in the West is going to be either Arizona or UCLA.

One of those two. And that's a little scary. And then you could also have the potential like Gonzaga or St. Mary's as like a three seed or a four seed being in that region and them having a bunch of home fans in attendance. That is a little bit scary being out in the West. But again again if you want to say

hey backs against the wall like then you shouldn't mind the fans it's funny though we've seen both scenarios i know more people remember the 2017 elite eight against oregon where you're scorned by playing at home and saying it's not matter and how ku has had struggles in the sprint center for so many so many games that we remember, whether it was regular season losses to like a Davidson or whether it was like that Elite Eight to Oregon. But there was also that Elite Eight in 2007 where KU played in, I think it was San Jose or was it Anaheim?

One of the two. And UCLA was their two seed. Kansas was the one. UCLA had a bunch of home fans in attendance. I think Kansas missed like 19 layups. It was remarkable from a negative standpoint, and they lost the game. So we've seen negatives from both ends of the Elite Eight. Pro to playing in Kansas City.

You're at your home. You have a bunch of home fans in attendance. The negative is obviously those past kind of memories in the back of your mind. I honestly, at this point, I'm leaning that it just doesn't matter. I know that's not like a sexy take. I know that's not like something that I'm going to start this show with. And you know, you're going to be hooked into that. Hey, it just doesn't matter, but that's kind of why you can point out to reasons why both are good and bad. You can point out to past examples as i just did of why both can be bad

i could also point out to past examples where both would be good you know the onslaught that kansas put on purdue and the sweet 16 by having all those home fans in attendance once they got the momentum they won by like 30 points there's a good example you know how kansas has gone you know kind of away from home or I, I don't know. It's hard to say like going to Omaha when they beat Duke, a bunch of Duke fans, the 10 of you fans like backs against the wall, but I don't know, man.

I don't think it matters that much. I think either way, you're going to point to positives and hope the negatives don't pop up. And if they lose, you're going to chalk it up in the negatives. If they win, you're going to chalk it up in the positives. But when you're talking about like small game sample sizes that was just a one game sample against oregon who's to say that if kansas didn't play 10 games in the ncaa tournament in kansas city they don't win nine of ten and you're having way more good

memories than bad memories right so i i just don't know that it matters that much honestly in my preference i just hope it's the West or the Midwest. If it's the Midwest, we're in Kansas City. It's easy for everybody to go out there. If it's the West, sign me up for a trip to Vegas to go see KU basketball on the Sweet 16, right? Obviously, you got to get out of the first round, and that's no guarantee. But, you know, I think either has its pluses.

So not sexy, but I don't know that it matters that much. But, you know, leave your comment with where you'd prefer them to play, whether it's just personal preference or having those bad memories yourself. All right, that's going to do it for this episode of Locked on Jayhawks. We'll be back tomorrow to preview a KU Texas game and talk about the weekend ahead for KU. You can find the show wherever you find your podcasts or on YouTube. Subscribe to us wherever. You can hit me show wherever you find your podcasts or on YouTube. Subscribe to

us wherever. You can hit me up on Twitter at D Johnson Radio. Hear me as well later day on Rock Chalk Sports Talk on KLWN in Lawrence. Thanks. Have a good one.