Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Will KU football's offense be much improved, and how many wins will it lead to?

Episode Date: August 15, 2022

The Kansas Jayhawks Football team will need to improve on their offensive output in 2022. How many more points can they score with Jalon Daniels leading the charge at quarterback and a loaded runningback room led by Devin Neal, and most importantly how many wins can they expect if they improve?Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!LinkedInLinkedIn jobs helps you find the candidates you want to talk to, faster. Post your job for free at Linkedin.com/lockedoncollege Terms and conditions apply.Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKEDON15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnlineBetOnline.net has you covered this season with more props, odds and lines than ever before. BetOnline – Where The Game Starts! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On today's Locked on Jayhawks, we figure out how much of a jump the KU offense needs to and can take in 2022. What's up? I'm Derek Johnson. You can hear me as well on Rock Chalk Sports Talk, Monday through Friday from 3 to 6 on KLWN in Lawrence. I'll be your new host here of the Locked on Jayhawks podcast, bringing you all sorts of KU coverage Monday through Friday. And on today's edition of Locked on Jayhawks, we're going to be diving into the offensive side of the ball. How much can the Jayhawks improve from last season to this season? And how much would that improvement lead to a difference in wins on the field?

We'll be discussing that throughout today's episode. But first, I'd like to thank LinkedIn Jobs for being the official college football recruiting sponsor across the Locked On College network. LinkedIn Jobs helps you find the candidates you want to talk to faster. Post your job for free at linkedin.com slash lockedoncollege. Terms and conditions apply. Kansas averaged just under 21 points per game last season. That was one of the more middling, a little bit better than normal marks for KU, but not quite the best. We've seen

this team average closer to 23, 24 points per game in the days since Mark Mangino, but that's kind of been the top billing for this team in that time. So last year, those 21 points per game, that was 111th in the country. As you'd imagine, it was last in the Big 12. And it's not just that they were last in the Big 12 in terms of those points per game, and maybe they were just half a point behind ninth place. No, they were last with a bullet. That'll be a common theme as we talk KU football, as we go over things that they need to do better,

things that need to happen for the program to keep the positive momentum going forward and for the program to build toward being a team that can make bowl games and that can consistently not be the bottom dweller in the Big 12. It's not just about can KU surpass someone else in certain areas. It's can they just be as bad as the next worse, right? Can they be in line with other Big 12 schools? Can you still be Big 12 quality and not be the money ball quote, right? Where it's, you know, Billy Bean and everybody saying, there's 40 feet of crap and then there's us, right? Don't let the 40 feet of crap be there. I guess I could have used the Charlie Weiss, you know, pile of crap quote,

but that's the point, right? The idea that, hey, it's not just that we're last. There is a sizable difference between ninth and us. And so it's not just that we're last. There is a sizable difference between ninth and us. And so it's not just that we're trying to catch someone and surpass someone. We've got ground to make up just to try to catch up to the rest of the pack there. So that's the point. Maybe you don't have to be, you know, top five in certain areas or like offense, but can you make up that gap where there's not a sizable jump from ninth to tenth?

And this certainly applies. KU did make up a lot of that ground last season under Lance Leipold in a lot of different areas. There's still obviously a long way to go. And again, the points per game thing. Kansas was 5.5 points behind the next worst team in scoring offense last season. The difference between Kansas, who was in 10th in the Big 12 in points per game at just under 21, to the ninth place team, which offensively

by points per game was Kansas State, that gap between those two was bigger than the gap between Kansas State, who was in ninth, to the fifth best scoring offense in the Big 12, Oklahoma State. So again, you have that 40-foot pile of crap kind of in between there. And they're making strides, and everything seems to be that they are attaining things to overcome that deficit there. But as soon as last year and in years past, there is that big jump. How much does the last three games matter here? That is an important question as we kind of go through this stuff with trying to figure out where is the offense going?

How much better can it be than last season? And you look to those last three games. You put up 57 points in the Texas game. You put up 28 points in the final two games against West Virginia and TCU. How much does that matter? Certainly there were tangible differences when you have a different starting quarterback. Jalen Daniels looked good over that period of time. The offensive line seemed to click a little bit better. And you could even say that is a little bit light because Devin Neal got injured during the TCU game.

Doesn't really play the rest of that game against TCU. Misses the West Virginia game. Basically, there's enough there over the final three weeks that you can make the point that that is the real Kansas offense. And even if you want to take out the Texas game because you had overtime, you had a bunch of turnovers from the Longhorns to boost up your scoring. If we just look at the last two games, again, even basically without Devin Neal for both of them, your star running back, you're talking about 28 points per game, which would make up that deficit and more and would move Kansas above a few teams in the Big 12 in points per game. So how real was that? How much was it just a nice string of play? Can you continue that over the going to be a touchdown better than it was last season, like they did over those last two games. But if you can kind of split the difference there, come up somewhere in the middle,

now we're cooking. Because like I was saying earlier, what's tough to kind of look at is the most points per game Kansas has averaged in over a decade. So since Todd Reising, since the Mark Mangino days, it was 23.8 in the 2018 season. That was followed by 23.5 points per game in the 2019 season. Again, Kansas was just under 21. They were at 20.8 last season. And even both of those numbers would still be behind Kansas State, who was the ninth best offense by points per game last season. So again, trying to make up that big deficit and the big gap between you and the other team.

So Kansas needs to, I think, probably surpass that to get to a point where they are more competitive, where they are maybe winning more games. How plausible is that? I think it's very plausible. I'm not talking about making a jump from 21 points per game to 30. Like I said, I'm not even going up to 28. Can you get up to 24 points per game? Can you have the best offense that KU has had by points per game since the Mangino re-seeing days? I think that's very doable, right? Improving by basically a field goal of what you did last year. And even if you do hit 24, that's the thing, like that's still, if you just base it off last year, would be last in the Big 12. But maybe that is enough to reel in close enough with Big 12 competition, because at that point, you might still be last, but you might have made up that 40-foot pile of

crap difference between the two. So how are you going to do it? Well, you have a full season of Jalen Daniels. You have a loaded running back stable, which last year you had some good running backs as well, but it wasn't as deep as this unit. Offensive line, you hope that they pick up where they left off at the end of last season when they started to show some of that chemistry playing with each other and then obviously you hope that the other units special teams and defense set you

up in better positions whether that's starting field position whether it's getting you more turnovers to get you a better scoring opportunity even more special team return yards or special teams touchdowns because it all does play into the points per game there. This isn't solely the offense when you're just looking at pure points per game. All of that stuff could go into it and should have you optimistic that the offense can be better and could maybe be that best offense getting you 24 points per game. But it's going to be tough. It's not going to be a gimme.

I want to talk more about how much that would affect the winning, though. How many wins could KU have if they make this jump in offense? Wherever that goes, we're going to look at that coming up in just a moment. As you gear up for the fall, you need the right people on your team to help your small business fire on all cylinders. LinkedIn Jobs is here to make it easier to find the people you want to talk to faster and for free. I know I'm always on LinkedIn scrolling through. I'm seeing job offerings.

I'm seeing other things that people are doing with their work, cool examples of everything going on. You can create a free job post in just minutes on LinkedIn Jobs to reach your network and beyond to the world's largest professional network of over 810 million people. LinkedIn Jobs helps you find the candidates you want to talk to faster. Did you know every week nearly 40 million job seekers visit LinkedIn? 40 million. Post your job for free at linkedin.com slash lockedoncollege. That's linkedin.com slash lockedoncollege to That's linkedin.com slash lockedoncollege to post your job for free.

Terms and conditions apply. On tomorrow's show, we're going to be joined by Nick Schwert, the producer for Cody and Gold at 610 and the host of Waving the Wheat podcast and Basketball Friends on YouTube. He also has a Heisman vote, so we'll get to some Heisman questions with Nick. Obviously, myself, I had a former relationship with Nick in terms of we used to host

Rock Chalk Sports Talk, our daily radio show on KLWN together, and Nick is going to be joining our show here on Locked on Jayhawks once a week, every Tuesday. So me and Nick are going to be bringing that stuff back every Tuesday, and we'll get into some more on the offense, questions over Jalen Daniels, if he could give a Kansas player a Heisman vote, all those things with Nick coming up on tomorrow's show. So the bottom line here with everything we're talking about, Kansas, the offense, averaging under 21 points per game,

how much better can they get? The bottom line of it isn't just, well, if they go from 21 to 28 points per game, okay, they improve by seven points per game. It's not just the math game of it. It's kind of the math of, well, if you get better here, you get better here. This is kind, Kansas could improve by, heck, a touchdown in terms of the points per game scored. It could go from 21 to 28. If the defense gives up 42 points once again, it doesn't matter. If the defense gives up 45 points per game, you're still going to lose so many games that it doesn't really matter. But, realistically, with a running offense, with the defense improving, it could be enough to change the win total, right? If the defense

gives up 40 points per game again, or they've given up in the high 30s, that's probably still not enough. But if the defense does improve, you see like Phil Steele Magazine has it as the projected most improved defense by points allowed per game and part of that is that they've created such a big cushion when you give up 42 per game that you can improve by nine points and still be given up 33 per game which is a high number but if you get to something like that I go back to those 2018-2019 seasons in which those were the two best offenses for KU by points per game since the Mangino racing days. Well, in both of those years, when you did basically average 24 points per game,

both of those teams won three games and both of those teams defensively gave up closer to the low to mid thirties points per game, depending on which season you're looking at. So it's not an exact replica because there are so many things that go into winning games. It's not as simple as like you have in baseball, the baseball Pythagorean win loss record where you look up and yeah, that team went 90 and 72, but based on the run differential, they were closer to an 87 win team, right? It's sort of like that where you could say, well, if you average this amount of points and give up this amount of points, you're probably going to fall somewhere between two and four wins. Obviously there's exceptions. Teams just have crazy turnover luck, either positive or negative. You could miss a bunch of field goals. You could just have bad

moments at the end of games. Like you think of Nebraska last season, who every game was like a one score loss like that happens so it's not necessarily a guarantee you're going to win this or that but the idea is if you're in this range that's typically amount of wins that you could expect to have so for Kansas realistically being a running offense it's probably going to be hard to average 28 points per game improving by a touchdown. They always talk about being multiple, that they will change up the pace, the tempo, what they're doing offensively. They also, though, always talk about wherever your most talent is,

wherever your best players are, that's what you're going to get on the field. That's what you're going to lean into. And so when you look at a team that has five legit running backs deep and a team that was improving with the offensive line running the ball, you have maybe some more questions at the receiver position with just less proven guys on the outside. And also because as much as they do want to be multiple and change things up, Kansas is at a talent deficiency to some other Big 12 teams. And you think back to the Oklahoma game in Lawrence where KU almost beats Oklahoma

and they mushed the game down into a low possession game by holding the ball for five to ten minute drives at a time. And if you lessen the amount of possessions in a game, it increases the variance of who could win the game. If you're going to play 20 possessions with Oklahoma, over the course of time, eventually they're probably going to blow by you. But if you play five, weird things can happen. They have a weird fumble, something like that. So it just makes more sense for Kansas to be more of a running team and be more of a possession team,

even though there will be times when that won't be the case. Because of that, it makes it even harder to jump all the way to 28 points per game or something like that because of the fact that there's just going to be less possessions uh there's going to be less plays in the game so the way i see it is 25 ish points per game might be the ceiling of improvement game improvement here 24 25 and again even then that's the highest number you've had in over a decade with a receiving core that lost its by far top target. And even though you had flashes from the offensive line and Jalen Daniels at the end of the year, there's no guarantee that carries over and works for an entire season or that defenses don't figure something out. But I think that could

be a realistic expectation. So if you get that point and the defense does improve to even being around 35 points allowed per game, which that's asking for a touchdown improvement there as well. I think you look at those 2018-2019 seasons when you won three games both years and you say that could be real but then I think it starts getting even more hopeful if we kind of dive deeper into those seasons because think about 2018 you won three games and you should have beaten Nichols State you probably should have beat Kansas State Peyton Bender drops back and cracks the egg to throw the ball and the ball just falls out and he fumbles that could have easily been a four or five win team.

Think about 2019. Again, you won three games, but you should have beaten Costa Carolina. You should have beat West Virginia. You averaged like two more yards per play than them, and you should have beat Texas that year. So that's a three-win team that could have won four, five, or maybe even six games. And that 2019 team gave up 36 points per game.

So again, to my point, the defense can be better. It doesn't necessarily have to improve by 10 points per game in that scenario. I guess I'll sum this up real succinctly then. As long as the KU defense isn't the sieve that it was last season, where you're giving up 40 plus points per game, you can't stop the run. If this team can just get a little better there, you know, a touchdown better, and then this team can get a field goal four points better, be the best offense you've been since the Mangino days where you're getting up to 24, 25 points per game, I think you'd feel good

about three wins. And honestly, because you'd have better coaching, better game planning, better execution, better decision making than those past coaching staffs I think the path to four or more is in play in that situation and of course you never know how the turnover luck and all that stuff will go but I guess that's my point if you can just get to those numbers it puts you in play it gets you in the competition to do those things three wins would be an improvement from last year it would be an over on the Vegas win total if you get four, that would be the most you've had since Mark Mangino's final season at Kansas. So those are all numbers you're going for. And I believe that getting up to 24, 25 points per game is both reasonable, it's doable, and it's also something that could lead to that amount of wins that you're

trying to get to that you haven't in over a decade. But otherwise, you get 20, 21, 22 points per game. I know it doesn't sound like a big difference from 24, 25, but that might be how you just wind up as a two-win team once again and not being able to build progress moving forward. All right, coming up, we're going to start our top 10 question countdown as we head closer to the KU football season. We have 10 business days, 12 total days, until the first KU football game. We will do that next.

But first, if you haven't tried Bilt Bar Puffs yet, you are depriving yourself of one of life's greatest joys. And guess what? There's a new flavor. You ready for this? Delicious, indulgent cookie dough it's covered in chocolate that's right built has done it again all of the joys of eating cookie dough without the hassle of making it plus it's healthy for you i know right cookie dough chunk puffs are only 160 calories and they have a whopping 15 grams of protein in them. Run to Built.com to snag a box for you and the family.

It will be the perfect treat. Or, and this is what I would do, you can find a really good hiding place and just hoard them all for yourself because you're not going to want to give those things up. Go to Built.com, use promo code LOCKEDON15, LOCKEDON15, and you get 15% off your order. Use promo LOCKEDON15, LOCKEDON15, and you get 15% off your order. Use promo LOCKEDON15.

I mentioned we're going to have Nick Schwert on tomorrow's show. Scott Chasen is also going to join us every Wednesday here on Locked on Jayhawks, so stay tuned for that. Like I mentioned, we are on 10th business day away, I guess. We have the Friday game with KU football opening up the season against Tennessee Tech. It's like 12 total days. But we also, as part of it being 10 business days, we have 10 shows, this being the first of them, before the first KU football game here with Locked on Jayhawks.

So for each of the next 10 episodes, including the start of today, we're going to be counting down of questions that I'm most excited to get answered for the start of the KU football season. We'll do number 10 today, number 9 tomorrow, so forth, on and on down the list. I do want to make an honorable mention one. I guess this is less of a question and more of something I'm excited for football season's back tailgating is back I'm a Brats guy myself and for the shortest period of time here in Lawrence fall weather is back I fall is my favorite season but unfortunately here it lasts for like three

weeks and then we just get horrible winter or way too hot summer kind of surrounding it. But we will have that coming up, so that's exciting in its own right. Number 10, though, on this list of the top 10 countdown of questions I'm most excited to get answered for the KU football season. What role will Jason Bean play? Jason Bean right now is technically in competition for the starting quarterback job, and Lance Leipold and the staff have made it abundantly clear that everything is open for competition. Lance Leipold, though, also said at one of the first media availabilities

during fall camp that he expects Jalen Daniels to be the week one starter. He did, based on how he kind of phrased it and talked it through, and because of that competition thing, leave at least a crack in the door. He left the hall light on as opposed to turning everything off to say that it could still happen. And he has added to that in recent days that Jason Bean has been playing the best football he's ever played and that he has been practicing as good as he ever has and has been having some really good string of play around him. So it's not in my eyes like a 100% thing that Jalen Daniels is the week one starter. I'd still probably say it's 95%, maybe even 99%. It would be very odd after the way last year finished, after saying those comments early in the season season if all of a sudden that changed up but he still has that focus and at the very least because Jalen Daniels has had injuries in the past because KU doesn't ever go into a season with like hey we have the most dominant

offensive line in football and you totally know the quarterback's never going to take any hits and you don't have to worry about any injuries there and also because this is Kansas football and as much hope and confidence that Jalen Daniels provided at the end of last season. We've seen a lot of years with KU football where it has been kind of a quarterback carousel. You don't want to completely discount Jason Bean not getting more play at quarterback. I mean, heck, the reason Jalen Daniels ended up getting the nod at the end of last season was because Jason Bean got injured in the Kansas State game Jalen Daniels came in got his opportunity and took it and ran let's say Jason Bean is the backup quarterback though what role would he play on this team because you're talking about a guy who

like this is not hyperbole this isn't just oh yeah he's really fast he's one of the fastest guys on the team no like legitimately he might be the fastest guy on the team like he has track speed he has 40 speed he's quick he's agile usually if you're the fastest guy or one of the two or three fastest guys on the team you find a way to get those guys on the field but it's a lot more complicated here and I think as Kansas fans you get kind of spoiled to the idea of oh well Kerry Meyer went over from quarterback to receiver and he had a wonderful career in college football Cale Pick went from quarterback to receiver and didn't have as great of a career as Kerry Meyer but he still produced at a high enough level as receiver so it'd be easy just make Jason be a receiver we have no idea if he can catch or not or run routes or anything like that could he be a running back could he take those hits or is he more of an

open field runner that being at the quarterback position allows him to do I don't know if there there is a role in terms of switching positions I think more so what it would be is just you have a couple plays a game that are maybe kind of a wildcat situation or maybe you have a couple plays that you have both quarterbacks in at the same time, and there's the threat of a double pass. There's just a threat of him using his speed. We did see some plays last year where Jalen Daniels gave off a zone read to Jason Bean. So I think the staff will be creative with the ways to use him, but I also don't expect just a complete position change. That said, we'll wait and see, and that's why it is question number 10 that I'm excited to see answered headed into the KU football season. Coming up tomorrow, we'll wait and see, and that's why it is question number 10 that I'm excited to see answered headed into the KU football season.

Coming up tomorrow, we're going to be talking to Nick Schwert. That should be exciting, getting to talk some more KU football, getting to talk some more in-depth about Jalen Daniels and this quarterback position, what it can lead to for this offense that they are trying to turn around. If you have anything you'd like for the show to talk about or want to follow up along on the action, you can reach out on my Twitter page, at DJohnsonRadio. And don't forget to subscribe to the show

so you're getting all the latest with Locked On Jayhawks. That'll do it for today's episode. You can also get more on the Big 12 by making Locked On Big 12 your second listen. Every day, host Josh Neighbors and the local experts of Locked On take you across the Big 12 your second listen. Every day, host Josh Neighbors and the local experts of Locked On take you across the Big 12 in 30 minutes. Locked On Big 12, your second listen.

Locked On Big 12. Have a good rest of your day. I'll see some of you on Rock Chalk Sports Talk later today. Deuces.