Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Will the Kansas Jayhawks Football Team Have the Top Offense in the Big 12 in 2023?

Starting point is 00:00:00 On today's Locked On Jayhawks, Kansas comes in as a top five offense in our Locked On Big 12 preseason rankings. Too high, too low. What is the significance of that for making a bowl game and for contending in the Big 12, especially if they do show the potential to move up even higher in the rankings? We discuss that on today's episode of the show. You are Locked On Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. I'm Derek Johnson. You can hear me as well.

Starting point is 00:00:41 Monday through Friday, 3 to 6 p.m. KLWN in Lawrence with Rock Chalk Sports Talk. Thanks for making Locked on Jayhawks your first listen every day. Thank you to all the everydayers out there for tuning in every day. You can find our podcast here with Locked on Jayhawks anywhere that you get any of your podcasts. You can also like and subscribe to the show on our YouTube page. On today's edition of Locked on Jayhawks, we're talking Kansas football.

Starting point is 00:01:11 We have another one of our Locked on Big 12 community preseason polls, and it has where the offense ranks for Kansas among the rest of the Big 12 members. It's actually Big 12 Media Day later this week, Wednesday and Thursday. I'll be out there in Dallas on Wednesday, so we'll have some content coming at you throughout this week, some more KU football content. We'll even have some KU basketball content later this week as well to be on the lookout for. But let's just get right into it.

Starting point is 00:01:40 Here's what the Locked On community, the members of the Locked On Podcast Network voted as far as the top offenses in the Big 12 for the upcoming season. Oklahoma comes in at number one. Explosive. You bring back Dylan Gabriel. You lose some key skill players. Marvin Mims, Ericic gray but you know you figure oklahoma is going to keep humming because they just kind of always do uh texas comes in at number two on the list all the skill town in the world will there be a big jump from quinn yours steve

Starting point is 00:02:17 sarkisian offensive coach boom uh texas tech comes in at number three that one i don't know not necessarily a surprise is they have tyler shuck i think with him as a starter they're eight and one in those games and they always have seemingly each and every year like good receiver talent and stuff so not overly much a surprise but um you know if you're just looking at rankings what you did last year kansas actually finished ahead of texas tech and some of these stats we'll get to that in a second year kansas comes in at number four on these locked-on Big 12 rankings, which if they end up with a top-four offense, that's going to be a good thing.

Starting point is 00:02:51 Obviously, that would be very beneficial and steer them in the right direction to making a bowl game. But it's part of you where it's like they need to be higher than them if the defense struggles, or maybe they are higher than number four and and what does that mean number five on the list right behind them is kansas state now with kansas state you know maybe the the total numbers the point per game numbers aren't going to be as gaudy because they they maybe play a little bit slower of a tempo but still a really offend overall then you have tcu in at number six houston number seven central florida or ucf in at number eight baylor is in at number nine cincinnati at 10 13th is iowa state and 14th is west virginia so kansas making up five 30 of the entire of the 14 i guess so to speak um and you know i uh

Starting point is 00:04:03 i i think that when you're looking at it from a Kansas perspective, you could argue they should be higher. Now, I don't want to just make all these lists when we post them out like, oh, Kansas should be higher in this and that. But you really can for some of this stuff. And in the case of Kansas, they were number two last year in the Big 12 in points per game. They averaged 35.6 points per game a season ago. Okay, so that was number two in the Big 12 in points per game. They averaged 35.6 points per game a season ago.

Starting point is 00:04:27 Okay, so that was number two in the Big 12. The only team that they were behind was TCU in terms of points per game. We averaged about 39 points per game a year ago. So if you're starting there just on points per game, which I guess is the goal of the offense, right? They were number two last year, and you return your starting quarterback,

Starting point is 00:04:44 I guess your top two quarterbacks, you return your starting quarterback i guess your top two quarterbacks you return your top two running backs and you know i guess your fourth string and add a a good transfer you return your top what like all of your receivers your top six receivers your entire two deep of the receivers you return your entire like five-man group of tight ends um and you also return four or five starters on the offensive line and added multiple transfers from power five level schools on the offensive line so you know already on its own you return 10 of 11 starters to the offense and you added more pieces to it and you were already number two last year so what gives why you did you drop to number four okay is it just did they get fluky with the points were they not as good in the yard stuff you

Starting point is 00:05:30 know if you look at like total yards per game if you look at maybe rushing yards per game or passing yards per game they might not be number one or number two on that list they might not be you know in in that um top three list or something like that part of that is tempo kansas does not run as many plays as some of these other schools so if you look at the efficiency numbers how many yards are you averaging per play because you know oklahoma is getting up 80 90 snaps in a game same way where that is going to matter into this kansas last year was number one in yards per play at seven yards per play um you could probably are eight they should be higher on these rankings than number four texas tech for what it's worth who comes in at number three and again texas tech has a good offense i'm not trying to get

Starting point is 00:06:19 but texas tech was seventh in yards per play last season and fourth in points per game. Kansas was first in yards per play and second in points per game. And they returned 10 of 11 starters. So it's not like, oh, Kansas was better last year, but they lose half their team. The Kansas returns more starters on offense than them on offense last year. Right. So why are they behind them? You can make the argument with Texas, because again,

Starting point is 00:06:50 like KU was ahead of Texas last year too, that Texas, because a lot of their players are like high potential players, that they have a higher ceiling to Grinch, maybe seeing Oklahoma, right? Another year with Dylan Gabriel. But I guess the argument for KU to be higher on the list, it is a very valid one. I guess the argument against KU, like why are they number four?

Starting point is 00:07:18 Do you have to worry about people figuring out their scheme more? Do you have to worry about the triple option game, the speed option game, all the bells and whistles that andy kodelnicki does that another year in the conference and a full off season for these teams to adjust and watch tape on kansas will that have a negative effect on them now uh i i was talking to david on rock chalk sports talk a couple weeks ago and i asked him kind of that same question and and he brought up, I thought, a very good point. So I'm going to kind of paraphrase what David said here, that if that was such an issue,

Starting point is 00:07:52 if having a bigger scouting report was going to be a problem in terms of, oh, now they weren't surprising teams with their triple option game, like they were against maybe Houston and West Virginia, wouldn't that lack of surprise have shown up in the second half of the season? Wouldn't, by the time they get to the last couple games of the year, by the time they get to the bowl game, by the time they get to the end of the year, wouldn't that option game have been figured out? Wouldn't have other teams had better scouting reports against them because they would have had more time.

Starting point is 00:08:33 All these teams have all these analysts that just examine teams a week or two out and they're working ahead of the schedule. Wouldn't some of these teams have come up with a better formula to stop and slow down that Kansas triple option and yeah you can say well Kansas running numbers maybe some of it weren't as good the back half of the season that I think was more about Jason being in certain games being the starter and not being as good of a runner as Jalen Daniels so uh to that notion yes maybe there is some worry that a full off season some big 12 teams can figure out the KU offense a little bit more but I I don't know, man. It might have just happened over the second half of the year. They have a lot of talented players on there.

Starting point is 00:09:09 So number four, it's a good offensive ranking. It's a solid offensive ranking. But if you go off last year, they were either number two or number one. I mean, they were number one in yards per pass. I think they were number one or number two in rushing yards. I mean, this was a dominant offense last year, and you returned 10 of 11 starters. So why wouldn't that be the case again coming up this year? All right, we're going to get on to our thoughts

Starting point is 00:09:33 on Kansas being number four on offense and what it actually means, the importance of having that strong offense to winning games, to making bowl games, to even challenging in the Big 12. And can they even move up to be the number one offense in the conference? We're going to talk about that in just a second. First, though, this episode of the show is brought to you by Bird Dogs. They look good.

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Starting point is 00:11:40 list when when you look at the statistics from last year and what's coming back. But you can understand, okay, Texas Tech is this burgeoning offense. Another year with the system, year two for them. They were a much better offense with Tyler Shuck in there, and they run this super fast tempo. What's that going to look like in another year? With Oklahoma and Texas, you have the potential of all this skill talent that if that breaks out, the potential there of if everything hits for Texas is averaging 43 points per game and it's like well even though Kansas was number two

Starting point is 00:12:15 in offense last year they were at 35 36 right so you could see why those things kind of work out uh there's clearly potential though that KU can work into the top two or three. It's really not that unreasonable that they could be the best offense even in the Big 12 if you really want to look at it. So like I said, last year they were number one in yards per play. They were number one in rushing yards per play and they were number one in passing yards per play. So they were the best running offense, best passing offense, best total offense, just in terms of the efficiency of what you're doing per play. Number two in points per game. And, you know, if you have better field goal kicking, or if you have maybe more aggressive fourth downs, because you were, I think, eighth or ninth in the big 12 and fourth down tries last

Starting point is 00:12:58 year, and you didn't convert them at a high rate, maybe you score even more points. And okay, they brought in a new kicker who you're going to get an improvement there right so you know there's an avenue for that to get better um the only team that was better than them in points per game was tcu and they lost max duggan they lost quentin johnston they lost kendry miller and they lost more on the offensive line they lost a couple really good offensive linemen so in theory you're saying hey we were the number two offense they were the number one. But we bring back 10 of 11 starters and bring back a ton more depth.

Starting point is 00:13:30 You on the flip side lose a ton. Now, to be clear, I think TCU at number six, by the way, as we were going through those Big 12 rankings, I think that's the one where it's going to be like, no, they're still going to have like an elite offense. Still the same coach, still the same offensive system they lost a lot but like chandler morris won the job out of out of camp over max duggan they still have a lot of talented speedy players to the offense like i feel like tcu will end up being

Starting point is 00:13:53 a top four offense when it's all said and done in the big 12 wouldn't shock me if like houston were able to work up there or something but um you know and if you're looking at somebody who's maybe too high, I don't know, maybe Cincinnati, a little bit too high there. So point being that when you are KU, you can make an argument. They are the number one offense in the Big 12 coming. You can understand the hesitation from people voting around in that, you know, it's just a one-year track record. This isn't like Oklahoma or Baylor, uh, during the art Bryles years or, or whatever, where it was like,

Starting point is 00:14:29 Hey, where we have the number one offense, or we're at least averaging 40 points per game for like three, four, five straight years where eventually you just trust the track record. It's been just one year of that for Kansas. So you can understand, Hey, you know what, we're giving you a boost your number four offense, but we're not going to go with the track record all the way till we see it for multiple years. When you have the question of, yeah,

Starting point is 00:14:48 does the scheme get figured out when you have questions about injury concerns, right? The, the running back group was, was very injured over spring football. Jalen's had past injuries. You know,

Starting point is 00:14:59 there were some injuries on maybe like the offensive line at different points throughout the spring ball. So you can understand that. And I don't think the gap between any of those offenses really in the top five is fine, but keep in mind that this team really does have number one offense in the big 12 potential. And it might be there.

Starting point is 00:15:19 And if it, what have the number one offense has done in the big 12 in points amly because, you know, I was looking last year and teams who average, it was like 30 points per game or more. I think there were like, it was like 60, 65 teams, something like that in 2021 who averaged 30 points per game because you're having a good offense and you know, they were, they were hitting that mark and it was like all but like two ended up making a bowl game so if you can average like 30 points per game or more your chances of making a bowl game or at least being bowl eligible i should say

Starting point is 00:15:55 um like what happens if you're the number one offense in the big 12 let's get to that next here with locked on jayhawks i'm finishing things up with locked on jayhawks can kansas be number one and if they do what is the importance to that um so okay this is i think just interesting when you look at how things are made because you hear the phrase all the time defense wins championships and you know to a certain level that still is true but i think we've seen a shift in that over football in the last 10 or so years. Part of that is rule changes and just, I don't know the differences in scheme and things that have gone on in

Starting point is 00:16:30 football that, you know, offenses is kind of carrying the wall or a little bit. These were the bottom three teams in the big 12 this past season in points per game. You had Oklahoma state who averaged 30.6 points per game. You had West Virginia who averaged 30.6 points per game. You had Oklahoma State who averaged 30.6 points per game. You had West Virginia who averaged 30.6 points per game. And then Iowa State who was all the way down at 20.2

Starting point is 00:16:52 points per game. You could argue those were the three worst teams in the Big 12 last year. I mean, clearly West Virginia and Iowa State were the bottom two. Those were the two schools that weren't bowl eligible. Oklahoma was you know a 500 team and Kansas beat them so yeah I mean you could argue those were the worst three and those were the three lowest points per game meanwhile if you look at the bottom three and points allowed per game you get Oklahoma you get well that's for Kansas so West Virginia was one of the as we just discussed bottom two teams in the league last year. But Oklahoma and Kansas were better than maybe Oklahoma State and Iowa State. If you have a top half offense in the Big 12, it sets you up better to be a bowl team than vice versa.

Starting point is 00:17:39 Iowa State had the number one defense in the Big 12 and one of the best in the country. They weren't bowl eligible. TCU, meanwhile, was first in offense in the Big 12 and sixth in defense in the Big 12, and they went to the national title game. So the offense does carry the water here, and here are the recent number one point per game odds in the Big 12. Last year was TCU. They ended up going 13- 2 and were the national title runner-up and meanwhile they were only sixth in points allowed per game in the big 12 2021 it was Oklahoma first in the big 12 in points per game they went 11 and 2 won the Alamo Bowl what was their defense like sixth in points allowed per game 2020 was Oklahoma 43 points per

Starting point is 00:18:23 game they went nine and two that was the covid shortened year they won the cotton bowl they were third in points allowed per game that season on the defensive end 2019 oklahoma they led the league in scoring they went 12 and 2 they were college football playoff semi-finalists they also were sixth in the league in points allowed per game 2018 oklahoma that offense was ridiculous 48 points per game. That was the Kyler Murray year. 12-2, college football playoff semifinalists. They were 10th in the Big 12 in points allowed per game that season. 10th.

Starting point is 00:18:57 That's the value of having an elite offense, which that team was. And you can say, yes, it did matter once they reached the college football playoff, and I will agree with that. Yeah, once they played Alabama, that's where the defense did win the championship for those other teams but to compete at the top to reach high levels of you're hearing me talk about these teams winning 10 11 12 13 games i think you'd be fine with that if you're kansas uh 2017 oklahoma number one offense in the big 12 they go 12 and 12 semis they were sixth in the league in points allowed per game Oklahoma number one again which by the way this is just an incredible streak for Oklahoma uh first in points allowed per game as well so that helps they won the sugar bowl and went 11 and you go back to 2015 Baylor

Starting point is 00:19:37 averaged 48.1 points per game they went 10 and 3 they won the the Russell Athletic Bowl. They were third in points allowed per game that season. Then you go another year. 2014, also Baylor. This was the most ridiculous offense. 6.7 points per game for Baylor that year. They were 11-1. That was the team that just missed out on the playoff, then lost in the

Starting point is 00:19:59 Cotton Bowl to Michigan State on a crazy ending. They were 8th in the Big 12 and now I wouldn't expect ku to score 57 points per game uh with the tempo thing and then 2013 you go back so this is the last 10 oklahoma state asked 39.1 points per game led the big 12 they were second in points allowed per game that year they went 10 and 3 uh and lost in the Cotton Bowl. So as I'm going through all this, every offense who led the Big 12 in points per game,

Starting point is 00:20:35 the last 10 of them over the last decade, every offense who led the Big 12 in points per game won at least nine games. And the only reason I said at least nine is because the COVID shortened year in 2020 where you had less non- nine games. And the only reason I said at least nine is because the COVID shortened year in 2020 where you had less non-con games. Oklahoma went nine and two in 2020. So if we throw out the COVID year, every team who led the Big 12 in points per game

Starting point is 00:20:56 over the last decade won at least 10 games. And you could say, oh, but those are probably really good teams. What about their D? Again, I talked about the defense. Of those 10 teams, let's see. And you can say, oh, but those are probably really good teams. What about their defense? Again, I talked about the defense. Of those 10 teams, let's see, one, two, three, four, five, six. Six of the 10 teams had bottom half defenses in the Big 12. And two of them had bottom three defenses in the Big 12.

Starting point is 00:21:19 So I say all this to go here. There are reasons to believe Kansas can be the number one offense in the Big 12. Right? Talked about that through the show. If you end up with the number one offense in the Big 12, even if you have a bottom half defense, even if you have a bottom three defense, there's a chance you win 9-10 games.

Starting point is 00:21:44 So just think about that for a second. Now, you don't know that Kansas is going to be the number one offense in the Big 12 because there are a lot of other good candidates, right? But if you can do that, if you can reach that next level, which is attainable for this team, there are pretty high heights that this team can reach. So don't just limit yourself at possible expectations for this team. All right, that's going to do it for this episode of the show we will be back on Wednesday for some more KU football

Starting point is 00:22:10 content talking about the defensive side of the ball this was the offensive side of the ball but that'll come at you on Wednesday you can find the show wherever you get any of your podcast on our YouTube subscribe to the show see you next time we're locked on Jayhawks

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - Will the Kansas Jayhawks Football Team Have the Top Offense in the Big 12 in 2023?

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