Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - X-FACTOR: Can Kansas Jayhawks RELY on Kohl Rosario or Jayden Dawson for Big 12 Boost?

Starting point is 00:00:00 The X factor for KU and Big 12 play, they're going to need one of Cole Rosario or Jaden Dawson to break out. You are Locked on Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. What's going on, Derek Johnson here? This is Locked on Jayhawks. Thanks for making it your first listen every day. And thank you for making Locked on the number one. sports podcast network on today's edition of the show we're breaking down why cole rosario and well one of him or jaden dawson needs to be an x factor and break out for k u if they want to compete in big 12 play also get into what areas for k u that they need to improve on or are possible to improve on if they want to contend for a big 12 crown as well and we'll finish up with some of the latest

Starting point is 00:00:51 news today's episode of the show is brought to you by game time download the game time app create an account and you just go to locked on college for $20 off your first purchase with game time. So let's just start right here. The real answer for who is the X factor in KU during Big 12 play is probably Darren Peterson. What is the health of Darren Peterson? Can he play? Like that is kind of the biggest difference maker and adjusting KU ceiling. Are they going to be a good team, a decent team? Are they going to be a great team? Those all kind of come down to what is the deal with Darren Peterson basically. And going into the impact of Correo and Jaden Dawson, if you have more minutes from Darren Peterson at the two and more three-point shooting from Darren Peterson,

Starting point is 00:01:35 theoretically you need these guys less. But right now, that is a big question mark on what you were going to get from Darren Peterson the rest of the season. And so it obviously becomes like if he is going to miss a big chunk of time, if he is going to miss, you know, a huge amount of action for you. Obviously, you need guys like Flory Bedunga and Melvin Council and Trey White and so forth to play well for you. But I think in either scenario, whether you're talking about his back and you could use an extra piece to, you know, be next to him, that'd be nice. Or if you're talking about Peterson is out and you have extra minutes to play at the two and you need somebody to come in and fill those minutes well, hit some threes and provide a little bit of scoring punch

Starting point is 00:02:15 for you. I think in either scenario, you need one of Col Rosario or Jay. in Dawson to play well. Ideally, obviously, both. But like, if you would have said before the season that Dawson and Rosario were going to shoot 26% from three-point range through the first half of the season, I'd be very worried, very concerned about where the three-point shooting for KU would be at this point of time. And I think right there is an area that both should and could get better for KU down the stretch. Like, again, you expect both of them to shoot above 26% from three in the 30s the rest of the way, especially when you're talking combined there. But again, at the very least, if you can get one of those guys going,

Starting point is 00:02:54 if you can just get one of them, you might not need both. When you look at the number of guys you have in the rotation, certainly if Peterson's out, it's more helpful if both. But like, at the very least, if one can get going, you know, there would be a little bit of found money for KU down the stretch. And if Peterson is out, Peterson's your best three-point shooter. You need Rosario and Dawson to help pick up the slack, or I guess. But again, even with Peterson, having another shooter that you can play off of him and open up the floor for him even more, like that's important as well, right?

Starting point is 00:03:28 And then you add to a KU's proclivity to play two big lineups this year and they've had success doing it. But once again, it becomes added importance, right, to add more floor spacing around those guys. And I think the other part of that that's realistic is that it is realistic to say that number can go up, right? It's one thing to be like, oh, Melvin Council shooting 35%, which is his career high from three, maybe he can get up to 40. And it's like, well, is that a reasonable ask? I mean, if he keeps playing like he is, then sure, why not? But like, that's not a reasonable ask. It is a reasonable ask for Jaden Dawson and Corrissario to shoot better than combined 26% from three over the second half of the season.

Starting point is 00:04:11 And like I said, I don't even think it needs to be both, at least if Peterson plays. but they might only need one in the rotation anyway. If we just look at it even without Darren Peterson, right? If you're starting lineup without Darren Peterson, you got Melvin Council, Flory Bedunga, Bryson Tiller, Tray White is kind of your four locks. And again, the fifth guy either becomes Darren Peterson or it becomes Jamari McDowell.

Starting point is 00:04:35 And then you're talking about off the bench, he'll Marco Jackson, gives you another ball handler, and he's clearly part of the rotation at this point in time. and then you're talking about one of those two guys, right? And that gives you seven-man rotation, which we've seen Bill Self lean on sometimes down the stretch in an important games. And then if you got Peterson, it's eight guys, right? So you might only need one in the end.

Starting point is 00:04:56 It doesn't matter which one. I think the other part of this, too, isn't just a three-point shooting, especially if you do look at it and say, okay, is Trey White going to continue to shoot, you know, 43% from three? What if that number drops a little bit? What if Melvin Council goes from 35% to 32%? Where are you making up for it from three? Well, Rosario and Dawson would represent some easy answers to that question, right?

Starting point is 00:05:18 But the other thing is that either guy can help you in one of their bigger deficiencies so far this season. So Kansas is only in the 36th percentile nationally right now in offensive rebound rate. So below average, I guess you would put it there. And Cole Rosario is a really good offensive rebounding guard. He's actually fourth on Kansas in offensive rebound. rebound rate. The only people is trailing Paul Mbilla, who technically doesn't qualify, Florida Boudunga, and Trey White. So of the players that are actually playing, he's basically third on KU and offensive rebound rate. Rosario is in the 92nd percentile nationally for guards

Starting point is 00:05:57 in offensive rebound rate. He is a good offensive rebounder. This has not been a strength for KU this season. You look at every other player on KU outside of Mbiyah, Bidunga, White, and Rosario, they all have an offensive rebound rate below average. for their position nationally. Now, can Bryson Tiller be better at this in the second half? I think that would be part of the hope as well. But if Rosario plays well and does break out, and therefore, Bill Self is saying, hey, he's playing well.

Starting point is 00:06:24 We're going to give him a bigger line share of the minutes. He's going to play more. One of the side effects, the positive side effects of that for KU is that you have an extra offensive rebounder out there in an area where I think would really help KU. Just from the offensive standpoint, this has not been a great offense. so far. Obviously, you have had one of your hands tied behind your back with Darren Peterson hurt. But one of the things that would add to the efficiency of the offense would be grabbing more offensive rebounds. And Rosario represents one of your better pathways to doing that.

Starting point is 00:06:56 Now, when you look at Jaden Dawson, he would bring something else that KU is a little more deficient in right now. And that's the fact that Kansas is in the 19th percentile in steel rate. So this has not been a great team of getting steals. Now, again, this is something that I think they're doing better at, like Melvin Council is getting some more steals recently. I think Kansas is they try to speed things up. Like this will be something they try to focus on a little bit more. But Jaden Dawson does come into play in this area. Like it is a more limited sample size.

Starting point is 00:07:22 You're talking about 140 minutes played. So, you know, that's not a ton. But Dawson's 3.4% steel rate that actually leads Kansas. And it's in the 86th percent out nationally. So again, if you're looking at that deficiency, like he would help there. Even if we look at raw steals, he's got eight steals this season does Jaden Dawson. That's tied third on the team, despite the fact that he's only eighth on the team in minutes played. I think in theory, like Rosario could help you with steals if he gets more confidence.

Starting point is 00:07:55 He's only in the 33rd percentile steel rate. But like, again, I see, first of all, you see some of the steel numbers from his OTE days. But with Rosario, it's always been to me, athletic guard, more of a question of like getting his confidence going. And if he's getting his confidence going, playing more, hitting more threes, I feel like the defensive confidence would come with it, too, to where right now, if you're not making threes in your Rosario, like, you're going to have a tough time risking it for a steal all the time because you're not going to have that confidence that like, hey, if I miss this, I'm going to get benched. And I think that would help there too.

Starting point is 00:08:30 But Dawson clearly has done a good job at getting steals, and that's an area where KU is deficient. And it's interesting because they're two different pathways, right? but they're both the same bottom line. They would help KU in the possession game. Dawson was steals, Rosario with Offensive Rebounds. Now, Rosario doesn't hurt either adding to KU's transition game, right? He's very good in transition. Dawson also gives KU another veteran who's solid on defense in theory.

Starting point is 00:08:55 But those are the big ones. Like with the shooting you're looking to increase and at least one of those two categories. So if one of these guys can break out, then it means, that they're playing better, then it means that Bill's health is more comfortable, playing them more. And then it, in theory, should help some of these areas. And so, yes, well, Darren Peterson's health, while his status, like, that's going to be the most important thing for KU and have the biggest and longest impact for the Kansas Jayhawks this season in Big 12th play, KU needs at least one of Rosario or Jaden Dawson to be a more consistent rotation player and kind of break out over the second half of the season.

Starting point is 00:09:37 What are some team aspects that can and need to improve for KU if they do want to contend for the big 12th title? Thanks for joining us on this episode of Locked on Jayhawks. We're brought to you by Fanduals Sportsbook and, hey, Friday is coming up. Friday's already feel different during basketball season and Fandual is making it even better. Every Friday night, before the game tips off, Fanduel gives fans a new way to kick off the weekend with NBA Happy Hour. NBA Happy Hour is your official pregame. It's a limited time window where special offers drop right inside the fan dual app. before the action starts.

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Starting point is 00:10:42 That's Happy Hour with NBA, only on Fandul, the official sportsbook partner of the NBA and the Locked on Podcast Network. Thanks a kid for joining us here on Locked on Jayhawks. Don't forget you can check out our Everydayer Club as well. If you want Locked on Jayhawks, ad free, right?

Starting point is 00:10:59 You can check that out with Apple, with Spotify, all the major podcast apps. Plus, you get an invite to our members only Locked on Everydayer Club Discord. server, super helpful during the transfer portal season upcoming here as well. So you can find the link to that locked on podcast.com slash every day or in our show notes. Again, that's locked on podcast.com slash every day. Okay. So what are some areas where KU has been strong through the first half, areas where they have their biggest weakness, and then areas that I think are fixable just in theory

Starting point is 00:11:29 of what they have? Let's start here. What are KU's biggest strengths through the first 13 games of the season? If we were diagnosing this team's identity, you would say this. a defensive team, 95th percentile nationally in defensive rating, 99th percentile nationally and adjusted defensive rating. And the big reason why is they've been, I mean, obviously the three point defense has been good, but I think it helps with how dominant they've been on the interior, 99th percentile and block rate. That's going to prevent teams from shooting well from two.

Starting point is 00:11:56 And then it's going to make them more predictable in win and where they're shooting their threes, which means that you're going to get more contests on it. And over the long haul, a contested three while, you know, in an individual one-shot vacuum might not have the effects because good offense is going to be good defense. But over the long haul, if you take 100 threes versus 100 wide open threes, which one do you think is going to have the higher percentage, right? So the defense has been KU's calling card. They've also been relatively efficient so far. They're not really winning the possession game, but they're in the 90th percentile and adjusted effective field goal percentage. So when you factor in the schedule they've played and some of the strong defenses

Starting point is 00:12:35 that they've already played, they actually have been a decently efficient offense so far. And that's even with Peterson having some of the injury was. They're also in the 68th percentile in paint points per game. That's part of it there. And that is despite playing the eighth best opposing defensive schedule so far. So they've played a top 10 schedule if you just look at opposing defenses and they're, you know, putting up a good number for points in the paint.

Starting point is 00:12:58 And then the last one here would be passing. they're in the 82nd percentile and assist rate. They've done a good job sharing the ball among each other. They're also in the 82nd percentile and assist turnover rate. And that's a big one there because that's not just factoring in, are you sharing the ball with each other? It's are you avoiding the dumb turnovers? That's a good combo to have for KU.

Starting point is 00:13:16 Now, where are some of the biggest weaknesses for this KU team? One of them is offensive rebounding. They're only in the 36 percentile in offensive rebound rate. They're not getting into the free throw line at time. Free throw attempt rate is only in the 31st percentile. And that's weird because we think of Trey White as being this dominant player getting to the free throw line. Just imagine now if you're in the 31st percentile with Trey White being able to get to the line over and over again, what would they be without Trey White?

Starting point is 00:13:43 It would be one of the worst teams in the country getting there. Bench scoring, KU is only in the 10th percentile nationally and bench points per game. That goes back to what we talked about at the open. Rosario and Dawson, can you get one of those guys to step up and boost that number a little bit more? And then getting steals. Kansas is only in the 16th percent. in steals per game, they're in the 19th percentile in steel rate. What are some areas, though, that I think are fixable, right, among those and maybe some others.

Starting point is 00:14:08 So Kansas is only in the 23rd percentile right now in pace rating. What does that mean? They're playing slow. It is interesting, if you go by adjusted pace rating, that takes into account who you're playing, if you're playing a slower team, it's, you know, going to kind of adjust the bell curve to that, 40th percentile in adjusted pace rating. Now, I will say over the last five games, it's up to the 45th percentile. They are playing faster.

Starting point is 00:14:33 We noticed it against Davidson a little less, but still a little more than some previous games against Towson. So the number is going up a little bit. But I think the faster this team plays, the better it's going to be, the more you can kind of avoid the half-court. And it's not just that, like, this isn't the most outstanding offensive half-court team. It's that they are a good transition team when they get there. So that'll be a key for KU that I think is,

Starting point is 00:14:58 well, they showed signs of starting to fix it. Can you continue to head in that right direction? The offensive rebound rate is one that I'm not saying this is going to be an elite offensive rebounding team, but can you be better than 36 percentile? Like, Florey's been good here, 77th percentile in offensive rebound rate, but can he go from good to elite? Can you go from Florey being 77th percentile to getting him in the 90th? I think one thing that would be the difference there would be getting Darren Peterson back,

Starting point is 00:15:25 because the more that Peterson is back and he's the one shooting, ball, that means that theoretically Florey is getting less post touches and he's in more of a position to try to crash the class and grab an offensive rebound. I think they need Peterson Peterson back to see Florey's numbers jump a little there. Going back to the Colrosario stuff, like if he plays better and gets in the rotation, that helps there. And then Bryson Tiller's only in the 28th percentile in offensive rebound rate. Right now, Tiller's only averaging 1.2 offensive rebounds per game. I get it. OTE isn't the same level that KU's playing in college basketball right now. But in the 2023 to 2024 regular season, Tiller was over three

Starting point is 00:16:03 offensive rebounds per game. Can he get up to two per game instead of 1.2 for KU and help you on the offensive glass there? I think that feels doable-ish to me, right? The free throw attempt rate would be one too. Trey White continued to sustain what he's doing. And then Flore does not have a good free throw attempt rate, which I think is probably, there have been certain games are here. I don't think Flory's gotten the best whistle. So maybe part of that is just that. But we do know sometimes in Big 12, it's football down low. So I don't know what the answer would be there. I think Peterson getting back and attacking more. We've seen him be a really outstanding jump shooter. He hasn't been somebody who's getting into the free throw line a ton.

Starting point is 00:16:44 I think that goes back to the health, not the same explosiveness to get to the rim. That would be something to look at there if that could improve. I think two point percentages somewhere I'm kind of looking at. KU is in the 65th percentile two-point shooting. Again, that's fine. That's solid, but why can't they be even better, especially if you get Peterson back? The fast break scoring is a team that's 59th percentile fast break points per game. That's above average. But again, when you look at the personnel on this team that should excel in speeding the game up, if you can speed the game up, that number should go up. And there's no excuse why this team shouldn't be getting more fast break points per game. Obviously, one of the things that would help you get

Starting point is 00:17:19 more fast break points per game is getting more steals. And that's another. area where I'm just like, okay, maybe this won't be a great steel team. Again, 19th percentile on steel rate, but over the last five games, KU's in the 41st percentile in steel rate, can you at least do that the rest of the season, right? Instead of being bad at getting steals, be below average at it, right? Like Melvin Council went from a 1.8 percent steel rate on the season to over the last five games, 3.2 percent, right? Can you continue to have this increase and at least make this kind of an average area for you? Now, I will say, is we're talk about, it's, you know, it's easy to sit here and be like, oh, well, everything that's

Starting point is 00:17:57 good will stay the same and everything that's bad will get better. There are certain areas that I look at as saying, okay, these could get worse. They could maybe drop a tad. I think one of them would be, going back to the free throw attempt, right? I think there's an easy path to getting better for KU. There's also a path to it getting worse. Like what if, what if Trey White's abilities don't sustain at as high of a mark? What if it drops just a tad from being, you one of the highest rates in the country to just being like a really good rate. What if Darren Peterson doesn't return and you don't have that avenue to getting more free throws, right?

Starting point is 00:18:31 The other one would be three-point shooting. I think you could actually make an argument either way on the three-point shooting. Right now, KU is shooting just under 36% from three. That's a pretty good number. If Peterson played the rest of the year, the number probably goes up, right? If it doesn't, though, it's easy to see it going down from there. But again, if Rosario or Dawson pick it up, then maybe that offsets. if some other players drop down a little bit.

Starting point is 00:18:54 So that one will be interesting to kind of track. And then the big one is three-point defense. KU is in the 100th percentile right now defensively at three-point defense, 25.2 percent from three. There has been a little bit of good luck there. Other teams have missed some open shots. I do think KU has done a pretty good job. Like compared to past years,

Starting point is 00:19:13 I feel like more of the threes are a little deeper or a little more contested than past years. I do feel like KU has big men who are. more adept getting out to the three-point line and at least putting a challenge on it, which is going to make them not go in quite as much. So I do think KU has the recipe to be a good three-point defense. I mean, you look at the Yukon game, how well they switched. But is it going to say 25%?

Starting point is 00:19:38 That's a number. Like, it could finish the season at 28%. And, you know, that means there's a little reversion to come. So we'll kind of wait and see what happens with that one. Let's finish up with some of the latest news here, including with KU football. getting a visitor coming by, KU Women's Basketball, as well, this is Lockdown J-Hawks.

Starting point is 00:20:00 Today's episode of the show is brought to you by Game Time. There's nothing like college basketball season. You get the packed arenas or stadiums, being right there in the middle of it all, especially in Allen Fieldhouse, the energy, the bands, the moments, you remember them forever.

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Starting point is 00:21:11 Download the game time app today. Thanks again for joining us here on Locked-on Jayhawks. We'll have an episode coming at you Friday as well with a little. preview of Kansas and UCF. Don't forget to check out locked on college basketball or locked on college football for your second listen every day as well. A little bit of KU football news. The transfer portal obviously opening up on Friday. So it'll be the Wild West. We'll see if KU or all these other schools get any commits. Obviously, you know, there's been no tampering in the dead period. Nobody's been talking to anybody or talking to agents. So certainly if anybody commits on

Starting point is 00:21:45 the first day, it's just because they had the best phone call in the world on that day. Certainly, there's there's nothing else but um k u this point um you know d2 guys and stuff like that that's why k u has a commitment from gibriel conde um they're not beholden to this same window they were allowed to enter i guess whenever i don't know uh wing state offensive line transfer triselle jenkins junior has official visits set with and this according to allan true i believe it's pronounced true of uh 24-7 sports uh western kentucky from january from january from 4th to 5th, and then Kansas from January 6th to January 7th. Apparently, his dad was like a first round draft pick of the Chiefs back in the 90s. So maybe that helps them out with, I guess,

Starting point is 00:22:31 local geography and being kind of near the area or at least a little familiar with area, especially as this does kind of become like speed dating. When you look at, when you look at the quick rapid fire nature that this transfer portal is going to be with the limited window, So having any sort of, I don't know, mental edge you can get is great. KU could use some depth on the offensive line. I still think Kansas needs a stud. You can bring in it tackle and replace Enrique Cruz on the right side of the line. But outside of that, if you're looking to add, you know,

Starting point is 00:23:04 offense alignment, probably adding a depth piece or two, adding somebody who, you know, could potentially develop and be a multi-year player like you did this past off season, they brought in a lot of offense alignment who didn't really play this past season, but they brought them in as players who played early in their career at maybe smaller schools, and then they try to develop them in the system. And now they might get the fruits of some of that labor in 2026 and 2027. And maybe you continue to kind of do that, especially doesn't really feel like Kansas has had the best success so far with the freshman or the high school recruits from the offense line. Calvin Clements obviously has been the biggest success story just

Starting point is 00:23:45 in terms of being a starter and stuff. But they haven't really had other, like, program guys that they recruited out of high school. And, you know, a lot of them have transferred away, but maybe one of them's coming eventually here. But if that's the better avenue to go to, finding a player in the portal who's going to be a sophomore, a redshirt freshman, or whatever it is, if that's working better for you, then steer into that, right? The last piece here I wanted to talk about was KU Women's Basketball has a game on New Year's Day against West Virginia. And West Virginia is a really good team. So KU is sitting at 10 and 3 on the season.

Starting point is 00:24:22 They finished the non-con at 10 and 2. They opened up conference play on the road against Iowa State, who has at this point the favorite to win national player of the year in Audie Crooks. And they lost a close game, 79 to 76. And Crooks had more than half of her team's points was kind of a interesting. It felt like one of those strategies by KU to be like, hey, we're going to let Crooks get whatever she wants and just not let the others beat us. And Crooks did kind of beat KU, but they kept it close. And now they get West Virginia, who's a top 20 team on Bart Torvick.

Starting point is 00:24:55 It's a home game for KU and one that, it looks like KU projected to lose by 10 over on Torvick. So this will be a good measuring stick. Then after that, they're at UCF, who's outside the top 100. They're going to be home against Utah, who's just outside the top. the top 40. KU's just inside the top 60 now. So the Utah game would be a good measuring stick coming up on January 7th as well. Obviously, we await kind of the injury status to some of these players. Sounds like Reagan Williams is going to be out for that one. Jalya Davis is questionable.

Starting point is 00:25:23 Good news, though, that she's getting closer to coming back because finally, KU can have their top two players with Davis and Nichols play for the first time since earlier this year when KU looked pretty good when they were both out there. I don't know for this episode of Lockdown Jayhawks. You can find our show anywhere you get your podcast, including on our YouTube page where you can like and subscribe to the show. Don't forget to check out the Everydayer Club and make Locked on College Football or Locked on College of Basketball,

Starting point is 00:25:46 your second list in every day. See you next time for a Kansas UCF preview right here on LOJ.

Locked On Jayhawks - Daily Podcast On Kansas Jayhawks Football & Basketball - X-FACTOR: Can Kansas Jayhawks RELY on Kohl Rosario or Jayden Dawson for Big 12 Boost?

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