Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - 2022 Seattle Mariners Predictions

Episode Date: April 4, 2022

Hosts Ty Dane Gonzalez and Colby Patnode make some bold predictions for the 2022 Mariners, including hitter of the year, starting pitcher of the year, reliever of the year and more.Be sure to follow or subscribe to Locked On Mariners wherever you prefer your podcasts! For questions and other inquiries, email: [e-mail] the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @danegnzlz | @CPat11For more of Ty and Colby, check out their Patreon: patreon.com/controlthezone/Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnlineBetOnline.net has you covered this season with more props, odds and lines than ever before. BetOnline – Where The Game Starts! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Happy Julio Rodriguez Day. Julio has made the ball club as the Mariners piece together, their 28-man roster ahead of opening day, which is just a few days away. We're going to be making some predictions on today's show from hitter of the year to starter of the year, rookie of the year. I think we know who that might be.

And more here on the Locked-on Mariners podcast. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked-on podcast network, your team every day. It is Monday, April 4th, 2022, and this is Lockdown Mariners brought to you by Bet Online. Bet Online has you covered all season long with more props, odds, and lines than ever before.

Bet Online, where the game starts. Thank you so much for Banking Us, your first listen of the day. We are free and available on all platforms. I am your host, Tadian Gonzalez. Join, as always by my co-host, Colby Patnode. Where is he? There he is. Right over there.

Right over there. Be sure to follow the show on Twitter at L.O. underscore Mariners. You can follow me at Dan Gonzalez. This D-A-N-E, G-N-Z-L-Z, and Colby at C-P-E-P-E-T-E-L-Z-E. Be sure to also check out our Patreon, where we talk about the Mariners even more, and also get into some non-baseball talk twice a week. Visit patreon.com forward slash control zone for more information. If you want more of us, we got a show coming out for our tier twos and

threes later on today. So be sure to check that out if you're subscribed or you want to subscribe. And if this is your first time joining us here on Lockdown Mariners, welcome to the show. If you like what you hear, give us a follow or subscribe wherever you listen to this. And if you're watching us on YouTube, hit a subscribe button. It's below us. It's right there, right below us.

Also turn on the notification bell and tell your friends, tell your enemies. Like I said, it doesn't matter as long as they watch the show. We greatly appreciate it. So Colby, it's a prediction show today. We do this every year. Usually on our Patreon show, but now we're bringing

it here to Lockdown Mariners. It's our first prediction show it's our first opening day here on locked on marriers for us so what do you want to start with we got hitter of the year we got starting pitcher of the year we got reliever of the year surprise player of the year we're going to do the record i think we'll say that for the last record for the team but uh any preference on what we start with here or do you just want to hop into uh i guess in order how i listed them to you hitter of the year you want to start with that uh sure but first of all i want to thank you for allowing me to speak sooner than five minutes into the episode only two and a half minutes this time around yeah that's pretty good that's about as fast as we can

go so uh yeah we'll just you know go into your perfect little list order because apparently that's you know the only way we can go about this i mean you know it it has been decided right i you know i rule all here in this this is my dominion you know uh this is my domain and uh yeah the and this is how we're going to uh to uh make things uh work here so let's start with hitter of the year. A lot of good options here. They added Jesse Winker. Obviously, Julio might be in a Tyson option here.

Thai France, Mitch Hanager. Who do we think is going to be the best hitter? Maybe most valuable hitter and maybe most valuable player on the Mariners in general by F4, whatever standard you want to use. Whatever you want. Who are you picking here for the Mariners hitter of the year?

And give me some predictions. Give me like slash line and all that stuff. I'm going to go ahead and take Jesse Winker. I know he's had a bad spring. Am I concerned that he's one for 26? No.

Will it be the last time Jesse Winker is one for 26 in any particular stretch? No, probably not. So why am I concerned just because it's happening now? It doesn't really make sense. So you just look at Winker's track record. It's insane and it's very consistent.

So I think expecting him to hit around two 90 to 300, posted on base percentage of 380 or higher and slug right around 500 is totally fair. And honestly, it's what he's always done. So it's, it's hard for me to envision anybody's going to top that, that slash line. And therefore, that WRC plus. So yeah, just best pure hitter.

It's going to be Winker. The power's there. I could easily see him getting over 30 home runs this year. He'll have the DH to help kind of keep them healthy as well. So yeah, it's to me it's a winker and there's a pretty sizable gap between him and the number two as much as I like Thai France. Francis doesn't really have the power that winker does. At least he hasn't shown it yet. So I really think it feels like it's a two horse race unless you really want to, you know, you want to include Adam Frazier.

I guess you could do that. But again, lack of power kind of pulls him down. So it's really probably France or a winker unless you want to go way off. the board and just take hulio and just you know predict that he's going to be basically a borderline you know mvp candidate as a rookie i i suppose you can do that but i i think it's winker um and then honestly it's i don't i don't know it it feels like a pretty sizable gap between winker and then france and then maybe fraser and fraser turenz hanager like some in some order there uh torro

probably towards the back half of the top probably like six or seven for toro so yeah but i'm gonna take weaker um feel pretty good about it all right well i obviously that's kind of the go-to pick there i would pick winker as well but just so we can talk about another name here i'm gonna talk about typh france this uh this is a guy that i i picked as one of my guys for flag week last week on friday and as i mentioned on friday i think we've only seen the beginning for tie france I think he could legit hit over 300 this season. I think he could tap into more power. Obviously, we got the Pye France thing that we're rooting for, of course, you know, memes.

Of course, that's our brand, particularly my brand. So I think it's a good thing that I'm going with with Thai France here or Pye France. Yeah, you know, you just look at that hit tool. You look at his approach and everything. It's just, he's really, really smooth with it. It's just that, look, the thing that we kind of forget with France is, that it's only been as a major league level for a year and a half two years like it's not been that long of a time it kind of feels like he's been around much longer than he than he has been

and yeah in general just like talking about the actual amount of games that he's accrued right now up to this point it's really only been about a year and a half two years worth of games so um i think there's a there's still a lot of room for france to grow this season i think he's going to start to morph into the player that he's going to beat in his in his prime i think he's he's right now starting to enter that prime and i think we're finally going to see what the uh the final product more or less of of tie france is and i think that's a that's a uh hitter that's going to post an average north of 300 get on base you know pretty consistently and and hit for 20 plus home runs hit for you know pretty high slugging percentage so um yeah i'm really excited about

what ty france can do and i think this year uh we could be looking up, you know, I said this on Friday, I think we could be looking up in July and he's an All-Star. He's one of the Mariners' All-Star representatives this year. All right, so let's talk about the starting pitcher. Got a lot of fun options here. Obviously, they added this this guy, you know, during the off-season, you know, who knows who he is. His name is Robbie Ray. He may or may not have won this little award called the Siyang. Last year for the Toronto Blue Jays. He comes over on a three-year, well, it's technically a five-year, but it might be a three-year deal. We go on with Robbie or we go on Logan Gilbert?

I know you love Gilbert. I love Matt Brash as well, so I'm a little tempted here, but I'm probably not going to be, I'm probably not going to go that off the board with my pick. But you go on Robbie Ray or who? It's interesting because I know you want to go Logan Gilbert. I know you well enough to know that. So I'm going to go Logan Gilbert just to take him from you. and say that I think Gilbert's going to have a nice breakout year, minus the times he pitches against Kansas City, I suppose.

But no, it's Gilbert. Again, we talked about how good he was last year with one pitch. We've seen enough, or at least I've seen enough, from his slider and his change up this spring to suggest that he's going to have, you know, at least an average secondary pitch. Most times he goes out there and maybe even two, and maybe they're both above average. You know, you're asking me, like, who's the most likely to throw no hitter this year? Probably Logan Gilbert, which is, you know, saying something, considering Robbie Ray is on the roster. So I feel like it's going to be Gilbert by war.

I think if you just look at like traditional numbers, strikeouts, innings pitch, things like that, it's probably Robbie Ray. You know, Gilbert's a very durable guy. But he is still a young pitcher. So they might try and, you know, maybe not, they're not going to let him. go 200, right? At least in theory, they shouldn't. So I just kind of feel like the counting stats are all going to favor Ray, but I think, you know, start for start, we'll look at the end of the year and we'll say Logan Gilbert was a little bit better than Robbie Ray over the course of the entire year on a first start basis. So I'm going to go with Logan Gilbert here and you can take Robbie Ray.

Ha ha, you've been fooled. I want to Ray all along. Ha ha. I'm sure you did. I actually did. Quite frankly, I did. I didn't. I didn't. People watch at home. The listener at home, they, they know the truth. They know the truth. Real ones, no.

They do. They knew that I'm telling the truth. They, though. Yeah. Yeah. So I am going Robbie Ray, coming off of his Syung award-winning season. I don't have necessarily expectations that he's going to repeat that kind of year.

But I do think that he could still, you know, the changes that he made to his mechanics last season, I think they're repeatable. I think that can carry over quite a really. I don't think he's going to struggle with walks like he did back in his Arizona days back in his first year with Toronto. I don't think that's going to be the case. I think he's still going to be a sub three walk guy, maybe go slightly over, you know, three walks per nine. But I think he's going to hover around that mark. He's still going to be, you know, one of the top strikeout getters, as long as long as he's, he's healthy for the whole season.

He's still going to be one of the top strikeout getters. That's been something that's been pretty consistent in his career anyway, even before all the mechanical changes. So I don't see any sort of signs of regression on that front. He's just a guy that, you know, the Mariners just really haven't had for a while. You know, pitching has gone in a different direction over the last few years, particularly in Major League Baseball. Strikeouts are the name of the game, and they haven't really had a huge strikeout

get her in quite some time and and that's Robbie Ray and so you know that's going to lead to F war that's going to lead to you know all the sexy numbers that everyone loves nowadays for pitchers and he's going to be on pitching ninja a lot and that's that's a lot of fun so um yeah hopefully he actually gets an all-star uh an all-star vote or two here um unlike last year where he uh he won the sye young but didn't make the all-star team so uh hope maybe that changes this year. And, you know, hey, maybe he does play into the Sanyang conversation again. I don't expect him to win it.

There's a lot of good pitchers, particularly in the American League. But I think he has a good shot to finish, you know, top 10. And I think Logan Gilbert's probably going to be there with him as well. And, you know, don't forget Marco Gonzalez either. You know, not in terms of Sanyang conversation, but like, this is a guy that's been top 30 and F-war among starting pitchers in Major League Baseball for multiple seasons. I know last year was a bit of a down year, but Marco's a good pitcher when he's on.

So I wouldn't be a surprise, honestly. If we get towards the end of the year and we look back on the season and we're like, you know, Marco was actually like, he was the second best pitcher in the staff. Maybe he was even the first, you know, the top pitcher in the staff. Because he can be that good when he's on top of his game. It's just usually there's one month out of the season that usually drags him down a bit.

But he's been a pretty consistent producer. outside of last season. So we're going to be talking about reliever of the year and we're going to be doing rookie of the year. And our next segment, real quick, a reminder of this episode of Lockdown Mariners is brought to you by betonline. Betonline.net is your number one source

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So head to the website today or use your mobile device to learn more about the transit action, bet online where the game starts. You're listening to Lockdown Mariners. Thank you again for making us your first listen of the day, just like you do here every day. And just a reminder to check out Lockdown MLB prospects. Host Lindsay Crosby is a prospect encyclopedia,

and he's going deep on the MLB stars of tomorrow. It's free and available wherever you get podcasts, just like us. Colby, let's get into the bullpen. This was one of the best bullpins in baseball last season, and they pretty much kept everyone intact here. They lost Casey Sadler to a season inning shoulder injury. Ken Giles coming off of Tommy John surgery.

He's not going to be ready. He's got a finger issue. He's going to be out for at least a month to start the year. But this is still a really good bullpen. A lot of good names in here. Bullpins are ultimately volatile. We preview the bullpen on our first ever episode of Lockdown. Mariners on YouTube last Tuesday

and we talked a lot about that and we talked a lot about these guys but who are you going to land on as the leader of this unit? Well, obviously Sergio Romo. After that interview that he had where he almost died by the way on

what was it Friday night, Saturday. Yeah. He was a good dude. He seems like a good guy. There's going to be random Sergio Romo jerseys at Team Mobile this year. 300. Probably like

and probably like five years down the line there's going to be like you know just some random picture on Twitter of some guy wearing a Romo jersey in like 2027 yeah probably I'm going to go Paul Seawald though okay

yeah he appears to have taken a pretty active leadership role he's you know obviously he was he was very good last year but it's you know seewold is i expect some regression and we did see that a little bit in September the one thing that is is worth noting about that is that you need to remember see wall didn't start his season until may he didn't have a regular April because triple

a didn't start until May 7th i believe it was last year so see wall didn't make the major league team out of spring training so basically Basically, he pitched an entire year. He appeared in 60-some-odd games through regular reliever workload. But he did all of that with one less month of time, basically. So essentially what happened is that Seawald's six-month season got crammed into five months, and he just looked tired towards the end of the season. So hopefully the bullpins a little bit deeper this year.

There's a little bit more of a trust in some of the other guys. adding Diego Castillo is huge for that. Healthy Andres Munoz is huge for that. So I think, you know, Seawald probably is still going to appear in 65, 66 games, something like that. But I think you were going to see him, you know, that's going to be over six months as opposed to five, which I still think that last year the regression was mostly about fatigue more so than anything else. Because it wasn't so much the stuff got worse at the end of the year. It's just the command.

was just wasn't there. They were using them a lot. Yeah, especially in the last couple of weeks. So it's just one of those things. I think the fatigue got him. I think he's going to be probably the most reliable guy out of the bullpen this year. I don't know if he's going to lead the league and save,

or leave the team in saves, who really cares about that. But I do think he is like their number one high leverage option right now. Could be Diego Castillo. I could absolutely see that. But I think right now it's Seawald. And I think Seawald's going to have a really solid, you know, one, maybe one and a half

one season, which for a reliever is a lot. Right, right. Yeah, I'm still going to seewald. I'm going to go Castillo here. Last year when they traded for him, when he came over, you know, he had a little bit of a shoulder issue. He still had some pretty nasty ennings out of the Mariners pen, but you could tell that there was a little something off sometimes.

Now he's fully healthy. He's here for a full season in Seattle. this is really the reason why they they added him was for for this year as well you know they they needed the help last year after trading graven after trading chargoy but um well i mean they traded chargwa in the deal for him but you know um they the the the importance was having him beyond last season and now this is kind of where you see that trade um be fully realized here and we're talking about when he's healthy one of the best relievers and all the baseball you know, tons of strikeouts, gonna, you know, he's, he's not going to give up a ton of runs. He's not going to walk a ton of guys.

This is just one of the, you know, one of the nastiest relievers in, in the game. And, you know, I know, like Seawald had the great year.

He was just dominant at times out of the pen last year, you know, did have a little bit of regression like you talked about, but there's, you know, obviously some reasons for that that we can point to. but just based on track record here i feel a lot more confident putting my money on castillo than

seawalt and even someone like second rider um that's mostly the reason you know but again you know walpins relievers they're so volatile you just you just don't you just don't really know but castillo just going off of what he's been able to do in his career it's been four seasons now for him he's pretty electric. And if he can stay healthy all year long, I think he's going to be a boon out of that bullpen. So let's get into the rookie of the year. I think this is going to be a pretty easy conversation for us.

The guy, the man of the hour today, Julio Rodriguez, who was officially promoted to the Bigley Club this morning. Scott Service has given him the news. I don't know if you saw his or listened to his interview with Mike Salk today, but it was pretty cool. good to hear him excited and feeling hype to to make it this far. He had a great spring.

But Matt Brash is also on this roster. Is Cal Raleigh still a prospect? I can't remember now. I'm doubting myself all of a sudden. Did he graduate? I think he just cleared. Okay. All right.

So it's mostly Brash and in Julio. I mean, you could throw George Kirby into this mix as well, but we don't know when exactly we're going to see him. and there isn't an incredibly clear path for him to start right now. Obviously, injuries are probably going to happen and, you know, someone's going to regress or something's going to happen. That's just how rotations are. But I think the answer here is pretty simple, right?

Yeah, Matt Brash. Yeah. I mean, sliders for days. Sir, sir, Matt Brash. Yes, obviously. It's pretty obvious which way I was going for this. yeah it's it's probably Julio I'll put it like this I answered I did our AMA like we do every Sunday at control the zone on Twitter which is the you know obviously our Twitter handle for

our Patreon podcast so check it out but we we had a question like it was basically like is Julio definitely going to win rookie of the year or just Brash have a shot that's essentially what the question was I put it like this I if you gave me $100, I would put it on Brash. If I have to spend my own $100, I would put it on Julio. Julio is more likely to win, a rookie of the year. So I want to improve my, you know, I want to improve my odds of winning that investment. But if I'm just playing the lottery here, Brash is, it has a chance, outside chance.

I wouldn't say it's, it's, you know, a great chance, but he does have that chance. And his odds are so much lower. I think Julio right now is going off at plus 540. We could check on bet online. I see what those odds say. But yeah, I think it's plus 540. And I don't know if Brash is even like on the board. So you get really good value on Brash.

So from a gambling standpoint, I might take Brash. But from a just what we're doing here, it's very hard for me to envision it not being Julio Rodriguez. You never know. We would have said the same thing last year about, about Kelnick. And it was most definitely not Kelnik. It was probably Gilbert. So who knows, but, yeah, Julio is the heavy favorite.

And I would be pretty shocked if he didn't end up winning the rookie of the year for the Mariners. Right. Or the night, he wins it for Major League Baseball. He's got a shot. But obviously, Bobby Witt, Jr. is kind of the favorite right now. So we'll see. And, yeah. Yeah, there's also Spencer Torkelson.

There's a lot of guys that are going to be coming up that are not just coming up right now, but throughout the year as well that are going to be in that mix for the AOL rookie of the year. I like Julio's odds though. He looks very good to start things out. I'm getting more and more excited about him the more than I see him.

I mean, it's hard not to. It's kind of infectious. Just the electricity that he brings to this ball cloud, the electricity that he brings to the field. It's just, you know, it's something that you just, you don't really see a lot. He's different. He's quite different.

And it's so fun. It's so fun. Today has been an absolute joy. It's silly that we had to wait for 4-4 to, you know, get number 44 on the opening day roster because don't let the Mariners fool you. That is exactly what they were doing. They could have made this announcement four or five days ago. They already knew what they were doing.

They already, he was making the ball club weeks ago. But of course, they had to wait to today to do that. just a day before Tacoma is actually playing games. So the whole process is silly. But yeah, it's awesome that Julio was able to make it. And really excited to see what he does at the big league level. He's my pick as well here, though I do love Matt Brash. I think Brash is going to be ridiculous this year.

He was my first pick in our flag week last week. He is one of the nastiest pitchers I've seen come up for the Mariners. and it's going to be a lot of fun watching him pitch this year. That slider is nuts. It's disgusting. So, all right, we got surprise player of the year, maybe like someone that comes out of the woodwork that we don't know, or that we're not really expecting to do well.

Actually, it ends up doing well this year. And we're going to predict the Mariners record as well. Pretty important, I think. But real quick, but real quick, a reminder. This episode of Lockdown Mariners is brought to you by Bilt Bar. This is the time of year that I've pretty much given up on all of my New Year's resolutions, but not this year because I'm sticking to my resolution to eat right thanks to Bilt Bar.

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L-C-A-D-15. for 15% off your order at built.com. All right, so we're going to do surprise player of the year. Who do you think is just going to come out of nowhere and be good for this Mariners team because there's always someone,

especially on the last couple of Mariners teams. There's been guys that have just come out of completely nowhere. Osse Nola, Paul Seawall, all these guys, right? Like, Jerry DePoto is a master at finding a minor league. There aren't really a ton of guys that fit that bill this year, but what do you think, man? Who do you think might, might just jump out of nowhere and be pretty good for the stamp well let's let's see who's

eligible for this can I pick Jared Kelnick sure I mean it a lot of people have given up on Kellnick already yes it's ridiculous but can I if you want to pick Kellick can I pick Kyle Lewis ooh I like that yeah I think if I'm allowed to pick him I'm probably taking Kyle Lewis um look it's going to be a minute for for Lewis uh you know I'd be pretty surprised that we saw him before May 1st. Maybe, you know, there's a shot that maybe he got to appear in a spring training game. But my guess is that he's, well, I wonder if he's in Tacoma right now, getting ready for their opener tomorrow, wherever he's still with the Big League Club.

It doesn't really matter. They're going to put him on the IL and or, yeah, the IL, send him down on a rehab step, whatever they're going to do. So, yeah, it doesn't seem like. Lewis is going to get anything in, you know, any kind of action, although maybe he starts tomorrow when most of the team, you know, most of the team will be sitting. So maybe Lewis plays tomorrow. But either way, I think people overlook Lewis a little bit here. I understand the temptation to do that because he's been hurt, you know, and he suffered a really big injury in the minors. And then last year, same knee. And it caused him to miss, what, 130 games, roughly.

Yeah, I get that. But aside from that, he's only missed one chunk of games in his majorly career once, right? So I feel like he's kind of being unfairly deemed as an injury prone player when, you know, he played all 2020. What was that? 2019 when he made his debut. He played that entire season without issue. You played all of 2020. Granted, it was only 60 games, but he was fine.

So I just feel like people are putting this label of injury prone on him. And I think they're forgetting that he is at least a league average bat. He's a 100 WRC plus guy. I think that's, you know, I would bank on that. And we'll see where he's at with his knee and health-wise. But when he's healthy, he's at least an average center fielder, maybe even a little bit better, which the Mariners might not have right now. see how Julio looks, you know, in the big league ballparks, but Lewis still might be your best

centerfielder, you know, unless you want to count Billy Hamilton. So, yeah, I just feel like people are forgetting about Lewis a little bit. I think he's going to come up in May. I think he's going to hit mostly against lefties to start and we'll see if you play center field. But I wouldn't be shocked if we look up in September and Kyle Lewis is somehow hitting 270, 340, 450. And kind of role and playing some pretty good defense out there in center field like that would not surprise me at all i don't sleep on kai loos also wouldn't surprise me if they traded him so we'll see where it goes but uh yeah i just feel like people maybe are forgetting that kyle lewis is is a pretty good player uh that the mariners are just trying to get healthy right now okay i'm

making this pick just for you dillam more we talked about it last night man he uh he's been hitting this spring and i just i kind of feel like we keep on just overlooking Dylan Moore and for good reason for good reason because he is basically I wonder why I mean if this was a 26 man roster under normal circumstances

he would basically be the 26th man on the roster but I'd still have Billy Hamilton but sure clearly there's there's merit to that there is obviously merit to that it's fact but sure facts often have merit it.

Look, if he changes everything about his swing, I'm just joking. We're not going to. No, we're not doing that meaning. Yeah, we're not doing that meme on a lockdown Mariners. But, um, geez, this is falling off the rails. Demo has the potential. I really do believe he has the potential that if he big, if he gets more aggressive at the plate, I think he.

could be at least an average hitter. I do think so. I really do, but he's got to be more aggressive at the plate. Get the ball or get the bat off of his shoulders. I do believe this. You're telling me that you think Dillemore can be a 100 WRC plus guy. If he actually gets aggressive.

Now, if he just like, if he allows himself to fall 02, 1, 2 consistently, no, no. I really do think so, though. I think he could hit for power. I he obviously gives you

you know value defensively and on the base pass I mean before Julio he was probably your your best base runner in terms of base stealing upside but you know before I mean I mean what do you do last year like didn't he

didn't he steal like 20 guys last year with that's 21 yeah 21 he's got five times yeah yeah but I mean like what's his competition on this group. Julia now at this point and that's now but yeah it's not. No, that's not great.

But I mean like that's pretty valuable that. That's pretty valuable to have. If you want to pick a guy who's going to hit if you want to pick a guy who's going to hit like a buck 80 with like 12 home runs. I mean, you're you're, you're pretty sure of that. See, I'm I'm trying to be hashtag positive here. You're drinking haterade on this show today. So, you know, I'm just, I'm, look, I think. that demo could come out of nowhere you're not expecting it no one's expecting i'm not even

expecting right like i'm here on this show today inhaling my copium right now trying to make this point i am trying to convince myself that dillamore is going to come out of nowhere and be good for the seattle mirrors i kind of don't even believe myself i don't believe the words that are coming out of my own mouth right now but i'm i'm picking them because i just i have this weird feeling in my gut that he could be an average big league hit this year. I really do. I just, I have this weird feeling. I just,

it's, it's this nagging thing that's just, uh, been getting to me over the last few days. And, uh, I can't help it. I can't help it.

I had to let it out here on somewhere. It was either here or a CTZ. It was either here or CTZ. I think this was a good opportunity to do it. I think, uh, you know, playing,

I don't know, three times a week, four times a week could, uh, That is including late game substitutions, Colby. That is including late game substitutions. If he's not swinging a bat, it shouldn't count as a appearance. Whatever.

All right. So let's talk about record. Look at you. Look at you. I mentioned Dillamore's name. It's like if I say Russell Wilson, you just, you know. Different podcast. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

All right. So what are we feeling on the record? where do you think the Mariners are going to end up? And this is taking everything into account. The fact that they have a path to getting better with the best farm system in baseball according to baseball America, all that good stuff. Tell me how they're going to get there as well.

Well, since we're running out of time here, I'll just say it with obviously Dylan Moore being the next Josh Donaldson apparently. That's exactly what I said. The Mariners are probably going to win 98 games because of that. Yep. One MVP.

I mean, Abraham Toro is clearly Jose Ramirez. Same thing. Yep. I mean, according to Savage the photo on Twitter. A. E.N.E.S. I'm probably going to hit 50 home runs. And what's going to be crazy about that is is that like, you know, the mayor is going to get enough at bat for Toro more and Suarez for all of them to be like,

you know, top 15. Yeah. MVP candidates. It's going to be crazy. So I would say that as they're built right now, assuming no injuries, which they're going to come. They're probably an 84, 85 win team. So when you factor in injuries and you factor in improvements they can make,

both in the organization and from outside the organization, I would say I'm going to predict they're going to go 80, 88. I'll go 88 in 74. Yeah, I agree that they're like a mid 80 win team right now, just as currently constructed on paper. I would say probably anywhere from 83 to 85, 86 maybe, if everything swings in the right direction. But let's be real about it. They're going to get better at some point.

They're going to add at some point. So, you know, yeah, you mentioned injuries. If there's a significant injury that happens, say Robbie Ray goes down for an extended period of time or Mitch Hanigur, Ty France, you know, knock on wood, of course. Jesse Winker, et cetera, right? like that could derail things quite considerably. But just, you know, saying that their main guys, their main contributors do stay healthy for most of the season. And they add impact during the season,

which they're probably going to do one way or another, frankly, you know, considering that they're right on the doorstep to compete for a wild card spot, maybe even more. This is going to be a 91 win. ball club. I think they're going to be slightly better last year in terms of the win total by one game. And I think that's definitely going to get

them at least into the wildcard conversation. But I could see them. We've talked about this quite a bit here on the last few episodes of Lockdown Mariners. I think they're legitimately one, maybe two pieces away from making the Astros nervous. Depending on what it is they at. So if they stay

relatively healthy and add that piece or add those two pieces that I'm talking about here, maybe they win the division. Maybe they win 95 plus games. I don't think it's an impossibility. I'm not banking on it. I'm not banging on it whatsoever.

I'm not telling anyone listening to this podcast to you know, that this is going to be a 95 plus win team. But I think there is a path to getting there. And part of that is probably Julio Rodriguez being pretty freaking good right away. Yeah, and Kelnick too. Right. Now, imagine it. If Kellnick and Rodriguez both pop, they stay relatively healthy.

This is the like everything goes right scenario here. And they add impact. They add another, you know, top of the rotation starter. They add a legitimate catcher or someone like that. Is it too much to say they could be a 100 win ball club with all those things happening? I mean, I still think you're a little thin in the rotation. Well, again, if they add another rotation piece, like a legit one, like one that is more or less in line with Robbie Ray. I think so.

But again, they're kind of in this balancing act where like, yes, they want to win this year. And obviously, if they're competing for a division, they're going to be more aggressive on the trade market. But I also think they're trying not to kind of like, you know, empty their clip, so to speak. That probably just got us demonetize. they're not going to like fire they're not going to I don't know how to say you got to stop with those analogies yes they're not they're not going to just like empty out the farm system right to at this deadline

to try it they're still going to want to you know they're not going to want to trade curvy or they're going to try really hard not to trade macko obviously you know like if the right deal comes harry ford emerson no whatever whatever pick your guy um they're going to try very hard not to trade those guys because they do really like them um and if the opportunity is there for them to maybe push for a wild card. They're probably going to go do stuff like what the Braves did,

where they're going to go get, you know, Eddie Rosario and Adam Duval or whatever the equivalents are. But again, like in the scenario where everything goes right, like you've got to be very aggressive. Like say the ad, like everything goes right, Julio pops, Kelnick pops. Like they're all like they're playing at a, to their ceiling.

They're close to that. And, you know, Hanager's playing well, France is playing well, whatever. you got to get pretty aggressive on the market there because you are definitely like step for step with the Astros, I would think at that point

or at least like just a couple of games back or what have you. Imagine if they added like Shane Bieber to the rotation, right? Like what does that do for them? That's what I'm saying. Like at the highest of highs, they stay healthy.

Everyone hits their potential. Again, this is not going to happen. But at that point, like, isn't that kind of the ceiling with all the resources that they have at their disposal? I'd be pretty shocked if they ended up over 100 wins or at 100 this year.

Really even close to 100, like 97, 98. I'd be pretty surprised if that's what they ended up doing. But is it like possible? Sure. It just like, I mean, we didn't think this team was going to win 90 last year, right? Yeah, that was our fault. Sure, sure. So, yeah, I'd say,

absolutely everything goes right. They can maybe push 92, 93. But if they can win 92, 93 games, then can they also win 98, 99, 100? Sure, because that's the way baseball works. So it's possible. But I would not bank on that. Like, well, and the Mariners aren't either.

And I'm not saying you're saying that, but like. No, what I was saying was the ultimate like everything goes right scenario. That's what it, that's what to me it would be. Like I think that's ultimately like if everything hits if they check every single box again not going to happen but if they check every single box I feel like they're sealing along you know because checking every box is not just the players that you have right now on the roster it's also whatever you could possibly add to that to bolster that roster right I think it's 100 plus wins I really do but I think just you know factoring in injuries factoring in that some guys are going to disappoint there's going to be regression etc. even if they add, I think they're going to be a 91 win club at the end of the day

when they add stuff and whatever else comes with that. So that's going to do it for our show. Hope you enjoy all the predictions. Thank you so much for joining us here on Lockdown Mariners. Little programming note tomorrow we have our ALS roundtable with some of our ALS hosts

from Lockdown Astros, Lockdown Rangers, and Lockdown A's podcast. We're going to be posting that here on YouTube and everywhere else that you can listen to us. So that's going to be our show for Tuesday. And then we'll be back on Wednesday. Doesn't seem like the Mariners and twins are going to be playing on Thursday. So keep an eye on our socials.

We'll let you know what's going on with the schedule and what we're going to be talking about over the next couple of days with everything. It's going to be kind of a fluid situation. We'll see if they postpone the game a couple days ahead and we'll kind of know. And then we'll update you on that. But if not, again, it'll be pretty fast. fluid and we'll just have to communicate with you guys on that front. But for Colby Batnode, I'm Tyane Gonzalez.

Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter and LO underscore Mariners. You can follow me at Dane Gonzalez. It's D-A-N-Z-L-Z and Colby at C-P-E-E-N-Z-L-Z-L-E and C-Pat-E-L-E-N-E-L-E-N-E-L-E-T-E-E-E-PAT. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. Thank you again for making us your first listen of the day, just like you do here every day. Now make your second list on the day, lockdown MLB, where Paul Francis Sullivan, and please call him, Sully, brings you his unique perspective on the major league's president and pass. It's free wherever you get your podcast just like us.

So have yourself a beautiful baseball day. And we'll see you tomorrow for the American League West Roundtable with some of our ALS hosts. And then we'll see you on Wednesday. Peace.