Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - 2023 Preseason Mariners Prospect Rankings: Nos. 10-1

Episode Date: February 3, 2023

Ty and Colby finish off their re-rank of the Mariners' farm system with their top-10 prospects, which includes three ties and plenty of debate to be had. Which prospect (or prospects???) cracked No. 1 on the list? Listen to find out!Be sure to follow or subscribe to Locked On Mariners wherever you prefer your podcasts! For questions and other inquiries, email: [e-mail] the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @danegnzlz | @CPat11For more of Ty and Colby, check out their Patreon: patreon.com/controlthezone/Join our Slack!FanDuelMake Every Moment More. Place your first FIVE DOLLAR bet to get ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS in Free Bets – win or lose! Visit Fanduel.com/LockedOn today to get startedFANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN)  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

On today's episode of Locked-on Mariners, we wrap up prospect week with our top 10 prospects in the Mariners Farm System. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners, your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. How's it going, everyone? It is Friday, February 3rd, 2023. This is Tadang Azales and Colby Patnaud for the Lockdown Mariners podcast. Brought to you by Fanduel, the official sportsbook of the Lockdown Podcast Network.

Make every moment more. visit fanduel.com slash locked on today to get started. Thank you so much for making us your first listen. Subscribe, like, and turn on alerts if you're watching on YouTube or subscribe and leave a five-star review on your preferred podcast platform if you like what you hear. And if you want to hear from us even more, please consider signing up for our Patreon. The link as well as our social accounts is in the description below. On the show today, we'll be finishing our re-rank of the Mariners Farm System with our top

10 prospects and a quick reminder of how this list works. Colby and I both put together individual prospect rankings, then combine the two using a points-based system to create the list you'll see today. You also see our individual rankings for each player we talk about. And again, this is all based on reading reports, watching video, et cetera, et cetera, and crafting our opinion from that. We do not see these guys on a regular basis, and we are not claiming to be experts here. Before we get into our top 10, let's quickly recap numbers 30 through 11. Coming in at number 30 was outfielder Alberto Rodriguez at 29,

outfielder Spencer Packard, then tied at 27, right-handed pitchers Tyler Guff and Travis Coon. At number 26, Zach DeLoch, number 25, outfielder Victor LaBrata, number 24, right-handed pitcher Gene Munoz. At number 23, right-handed pitcher J.Bukascus, who was recently DFAed. He's still technically in the organization as of now. We'll see if he makes his way through waivers and all that stuff and reverts back to the Mariners organization. If not, we will make a change and we'll announce that on a future show. Number 22, infielder, Hogan Windish and a number 21, first baseman slash outfielder slash D.H. Robert Perez Jr. And then at number 20, first baseman slash DH, Tyler Locklear,

tied at 18 outfielders, Cade Marlowe and Jonathan Classe. At number 17, Michael Morales, right-handed pitcher, who was drafted by the Mariners a couple of years ago. Number 16, right-handed pitcher perlander borougha number 15 right hand pitcher Isaiah Campbell tied at 13 right handed pitchers Taylor Dallard and a j izzie at number 12 left-handed pitcher Juan pinto and at number 11 first baseman slash outfielder slash d h lazaro montes all right so i tease this on Wednesday we have quite a few ties in our top 10 you and i were in line on some guys and then some other guys we're about a spot or two off from one another and we open up our top 10 here with a tie Colby.

We have infielder Michael Oroyo and shortstop Axel Sanchez tied at number nine on our list. So you were higher on Arroyo or actually, no, no, you and I both had Arroyo at number nine. But Sanchez, you had at eight. I had at 10. So tell me about these guys. Who do you want to start with here, Arroyo or Sanchez? kind of a dealer's choice type of thing here Michael Oroyo on the one hand is Edgar Martinez

so I feel like on a Mariners podcast we should probably start with him yeah sure yeah yeah of course naturally as one would do and you know of course friend of the show Jerry Depoto did mention Michael Oroyo in our discussion with him last week so yeah I think that's a good place to start here so Arroyo had a great year down in the DSL his first year in professional baseball

he has one of the nicer swings you'll see out of a prospect down in the DSL and that showed through and then some this past year where he just he went off so let's talk a little bit about his path to the big leagues and you know I've seen some timelines on him like 2026 that seems pretty aggressive on him but this is a guy that I'm sure we're going to see stateside this year what do you think about him getting to the big leagues in three years though at the age I mean Right now he's at the age of 19, so he'd be 21, 22-ish, making his big league debut if he made it then. What do you think about that? It's pretty aggressive. There's a lot to like about Arroyo, obviously. The biggest thing being that he's a hitter, you know, not to sound too cliche, but it's he's hitterish. I mean, he uses the whole field to go line to line, lots of line drives, really good approach at the plate, very disciplined hitter for his age. mature in the box with a good game plan every time he goes up there and some pretty noticeable

power it's not you know it's not like 35-home run power that we're looking at right now but he's just 19 years old he's still kind of maturing physically and he's such a good hitter and a good bat that it's not hard to project the power's coming defensively he's played shortstop most don't think he can stick there but they they do seem to believe that for the most part, he'll be able to handle third base or even second base without issue. He's not terrible at shortstop. He just kind of lacks the range that you want at that position. And we'll have to see how he fills out physically. But yeah, it sounds like he's going to hit his way to the big leagues. If everything goes well, three years, probably a bit aggressive on that end. But you never know.

And his approach and his game plan at the plate are really impressive for a 19-year-old. So I don't want to say it's not going to happen. But, you know, anytime you, you see, say a 19 year old could be in the big leagues within three years. The hit tool has to be pretty advanced. And in Arroyo's case, it is. So it's possible. Yeah, the point in asking you that is really to get down to the core of this, is he special?

Is he a special dude? And you hear more and more from people in the know that he is a special prospect. He's a guy to really keep an eye on here. Like you said, probably third base, maybe second base, maybe left field. We'll see for Arroyo as like, you said as he starts to fill in physically. But yeah, this is a really nice profile.

Really excited to see how that plays stateside. And, you know, all jokes aside with the Edgar Martinez comp that Jeremy Booth put on Michael O'Roeo, if you look at his follow-through on his swing, it is very Edgar-ish with the left hand kind of hanging open at the end of it. Yeah, it's a little Edgar. There's a little bit of Eager in there. Not comping him to Eager as a player, though. but the follow through, yeah, I see a little hecker there.

Axel Sanchez kind of came out of nowhere this past year. And if you noticed on the list, usually with these infielders, I just list them as infielders because we don't typically know where they're going to end up positionally. I put Axel Sanchez as shortstop. I just said he's a shortstop because this dude, there's no doubt in my mind personally that he's going to be able to stick at shortstop. And the bat this year at 20 years of age, or really 19 years of age, this year at low A or high A both levels.

He ended up making it to high A, but at low A he slashed 305401. 618 dude. 618, 618 slugging percentage. Are you serious at 19 years old and low A 154 WRC plus? 8 home runs, 37 ribs. Did strike out quite a bit, 27.6% of the time. Also walked 9.9% of the time. But yeah, the power here is.

ridiculous. Do you think this is something that can actually be a part of his game? Not obviously at a 618 level, but is this something that could stick around here for Axel Sanchez? It probably can. We'll have to wait and see. There's a lot more rawness in the bat of Axel Sanchez and there is in Arroyo. But because Arroyo, sorry, because Sanchez can stick it short and most believe he can and he has the skills to do it. That gives a little bit of an edge of over Oroa just because the bat has the bat has less pressure on it, right? You can play shortstop than if you're a third baseman, like I think Oroyo is. So, yeah, there's more rawness in Sanchez.

He's, I don't know if he's going to start the year in Everett. He might go back to Modesto. We'll see, I would guess Everett, but he's 20 years old. So it's his second year stateside, second full year state side. And it's a pretty big year for him. It'll kind of define what he is as a prospect. either he's, you know, a borderline top 10 guy who's got some interesting tools and we're kind of waiting to see it against higher competition or it's possible that he, you know, just absolutely right. And we're talking about him, you know, next year as a top five guy and maybe the next shortstop for the Seattle Mariners.

Certainly his ascension has lessened the blow on trading Edwin Arroyo, which not much of a blow considering he got Luis Castillo. But yeah, he's kind of slid in right to where Arroyo was going to be after the good year he had. And so, yeah, it's kind of funny, right? Like Arroyo and Sanchez not, I mean, like they're kind of comparable to Noelvi-Marté and Edwin Arroyo here. Yeah, Marte, more power than either of them, natural power. But yeah, Marte's, you know, third baseman who I think a lot of Mariner fans overhyped. They really tried to force that like he's the next Julio thing. And it's like there is no next Julio.

That's the outlier. So yeah, I think that it's always funny, right? Because there's always people who panic about, oh, my God, we just traded our two best prospects. And then we sit here and we talk about like, so, because here's a royal. Here's here's Sanchez. And then, oh, here's Cole Young and here's, you know, Felman Celestine and here's two, here's three. top 30 picks and look at that. They rebuilt it in a year because of player development.

So yeah, it's pretty fitting, but, you know, Sanchez to me just a little bit better than Arroyo just because I think he can play shortstop. And I think he can hit well enough that he's going to be an above average bat at the position where he's probably at worst an average defensive shortstop. All right. So it took us the whole first segment to talk just about Michael Arroyo and Axel Sanchez here. We're going to be getting more into our top 10. There's a lot of fun discussions to be had today.

I think there's, again, a couple more ties to come up. So we'll have some debates about that. We'll get into the rest of our top 10 here in just a moment. But real quick, a reminder. This episode of Lockdown Mariners is brought to you by Fanduel. We're really excited about our new sports betting partner for Lockdown because they're the number one sports book in America. Fan Duel. And if you're new to Fandul, that's even better.

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Brian Wu. He's had a fantastic start to his professional baseball career. And after coming off of surgery, when really everyone thought that he was going to be a reliever, you and I included, he's now shown that starting is a real possibility for him. And it honestly might be the likelier outcome here, considering the way that he's going right now.

So what do you think about Brian Wu now that he's starting to figure some things out? Yeah. A pretty interesting athlete. Fastball 95 to 99 in his first full year back from Tommy John. The change up has kind of surpassed the slider as his best secondary pitch, and it's a legitimate changeup. Slider needs some work as most, you know, most pitchers are really just trying to work on that third pitch.

So nothing too concerning there. Wu out of the bullpen could probably help Seattle in 2023. Yeah. No reason to put him out of. of the rotation quite yet. He's probably going to start the year, I would imagine, in Everett, maybe AA. We'll see how fast they want to push him. But he's going to get some innings with the big league, camp, this spring training. So we'll get to see him. But yeah, right now the profile is, I think if you just want to be like the safest profile is he's a two-pitch reliever fastball changeup, who's both

pitches are good enough that he's probably a mid-high leverage type. So somewhere in the Paul C-wold range. But if you really want to dream on him a little bit, he's a good athlete who's going to have two plus pitches, quality third pitch in the slider. And it comes down to if he can throw enough quality strikes to be a number three or if he's a number four with some control issues here and there. So there's a lot to like about Wu. You know, it's another great find by Jerry and his staff and a good job of development because they turned a guy who everybody on draft day said was like, oh, they picked a reliever in the six. Yeah, probably save some money there. But yeah, you know, it's a good reliever pick to a guy who we're talking about potentially.

Maybe it's a long shot, but still potentially a mid-rotation type of arm with two plus pitches and a pretty quality third pitch. You know, Jerry and his crew and Scott Hunter and the area scouts, they do it again. And we'll see. It's a big year for him because he is a college guy, right? So he's a little bit older for the level that he was pitching at. So it's a big year for him. The slider takes a step forward and everything else remains about,

what it was last year. He's probably getting innings at the big league level out of the bullpen at some point this year, but the Mariners, by no means, we'll write him off as a starter. And that's, of course, assuming that he's with the Mariners organization next year, because Jerry DePoto told us, the Mariners aren't the only ones who really like Brian Wu right now. Yeah. And if you ask Jerry DePoto, he'd probably tell us that we're low on Brian Wu, even putting him at number eight here.

Jerry's not perfect. They seem to really like Woo though. So yeah, he's going to be a lot of fun to watch this year. And I mean, you know, depending on what he does this year, he might be able to get into the conversation here to throw some innings for the Mariners at the big league level. All right. Coming in at number seven. Oh, I'm excited about this one, Colby.

It's the vanilla missile, baby. Walter Ford, right-handed pitcher who was drafted by. the Mariners this past year in the third round, I believe. Yes. Third round, still has not pitched at the professional level, but he'll be making his debut this upcoming season here just in a couple months. Really excited to see the vanilla missile finally take the mound for the Seattle Mariners organization.

So you've kind of become a bigger vanilla missile guy than I have as of late, though. I mean, you own some of this guy's merch now. Like, I'm surprised you're not wearing the hat today. I mean, you knew that we were talking about him today. I'm a little, I'm a little disappointed. Maybe I should be questioning your fandom of the vanilla missile.

But, yeah, tell me, tell me why you like old VM here. Sure. First answer these questions, Ty. How many vanilla missile missile hats do you own? Because I own two. Zero, but I am going to be buying that headband. I'm going to buy it too. Yeah.

So here's my plan, right? I'm going to, he's going to be in Arizona with the minor league camp. I think I'll be down there at roughly the time that the minorly camp will be going. I'm going to wear the hat with the headband underneath and see if I can get his attention. Which is not weird at all because he's 18 years old. So, but yeah, if you guys haven't checked out his gear, do it. It's hilarious. But it's hard not to like him, right?

Like he's so, like, filled with confidence that he's adding major league teams in the American League West, like, you guys aren't ready for me. And it's like, dude, you're, you're 17 on draft day. Like, let's pump the brakes. But there's a lot to like here, man. There really is. He's 97, 98, 99 with a fastball. It's an extremely wippy arm, as the term scouts like to use.

It's a very loose and easy and free motion. He's a really good athlete as well. And we're talking about a guy who, you know, a pretty good curveball and slider here. So we're talking about two breaking balls that both could project. as above average or maybe plus in a fastball that's not just velocity. There's some good run to it, some good ride at the top of the zone.

Again, he's a really good athlete, so it doesn't always translate, but typically good athletes find a way to throw enough strikes that they're playable in the rotation. Again, he's 18 years old, so he is, I would say, charitably three years away, probably closer to four, four and a half.

He's going to start the year in the Complex League, but he's just a, he's just a fun dude with a, with a great arsenal potential to be, uh, uh, maybe not an ace, but he could be there's a chance, there's a path to him being a number two starter in this league. And, and that's obviously extremely valuable. If he was closer to the big leagues, I wouldn't have any issue putting him in the top five, but because he's three plus years away. I mean, he's probably not even going to get to Modesto this year, uh, but I wouldn't, I wouldn't put it past him. You don't, you don't think there's any chance that he starts the year in Modesto because he is so advance physically he's pretty advanced yeah um yeah no i don't because Seattle traditionally hasn't

rushed guys right like they didn't try and force izzie and and forward into the the complex league last year they just kind of like let's just take a deep breath here let's slowly bring these guys along and with for there's a lot of goodness in that arm uh so you don't want to rush it right you want to let them develop naturally um but there's a lot to like and so i i think I guess I would say that I think he starts in the complex league and I think he will make a handful of starts at least for Modesto. And if he does that, then I think his timeline's in really good shape to be up by late 2026, early 2027. Again, assuming he sticks around the organization. Because Ford's an arm that a lot of teams are going to be interested in.

That's great and all, but I want the vanilla missile on my team, especially because I don't, especially because I don't want to feel the wrath of the vanilla missile missile for the next, you know, 10 years, of course. That's exactly why. I'm scared, Colby. I'm scared. The vanilla missile will come eventually. All right. So, uh, number six on the list, Emerson Hancock.

Colby, I have no idea what to do with Emerson Hancock because like, we both put him at number six on our list. He falls out of the top five here. He's coming off of, uh, not a great year, not a bad year. either just kind of, I felt very wellmed by Emerson Hancock's year. The one concerning thing here for me, but on the flip side of that, the thing that also makes me want to put him higher on my list is the ability to get value out of his fastball, because right now he's not getting value out of his fastball.

He's not missing bats. But if he can, that changes a lot for me. That changes a lot because we're talking about the potential for four average or better pitches. and if he can miss bats with the fastball, I mean, the sky's kind of the limit for me with Emerson Hancock here, but that's a huge question because he just hasn't shown the ability to do that. And he hasn't shown the ability to stay healthy as well here.

So, you know, did you consider putting Hancock even lower in your list? Was this about it for you? Did you consider him higher because of that potential still? Like, where are you at on Hancock at this point? Because I feel very conflicted.

I had them very solidly at number six without much thought of putting them higher or lower. Because like you said, there is a lot to like here, right? It's a pretty decent athlete, throws lots of strikes still. The change-up is plus at this point. The slider isn't terrible. It's a usable pitch that could tick up even a little bit more. And there's velocity in the fastball. It's not that he's throwing 87, right?

He's 93 to 95 can touch 97. He just hasn't gotten any value out of the pitch. It's not a high spin rate pitch. He just kind of throws it straight over the top. There's not a lot of movement to it. There's not a lot of ride. It's just kind of a velocity pitch. And if you can't have value out of your fastball, your ceiling is just severely capped.

But because the change-up is good, because he throws strikes, because he has a slider, and because the fastball command is actually pretty good, I think he's at least a number four starter. I think he can be that in, you know, July of this year. And there's still enough there because, like you mentioned, there have been some injuries. So he hasn't gotten a real full season in his minor league career yet. This will kind of be the first year that I don't want to say that he can't find a way to get value out of the fastball because he's a really talented pitcher. He's, you know, former top, what, six pick? And the other pitches are there and the control is there.

It's just about the fastball. So if he comes out and he finds a way to get, you know, more ride on the fastball, maybe some more run, maybe he switches to the two seamer. you can find a way to get some value out of that pitch. He's a legitimate middle of the rotation guy, maybe even a number two. That profile that he had coming out of school is still in there. We're just kind of running out of time for him to hit it because he is, what, 23 years old now?

24 years old. 23 years old, yeah. Yeah, so there's still time for him to get there, but he's running out. And right now I still think he's a major league starter or a very good reliever. But, you know, and we thought he could be on draft day a few years ago,

it's pretty much put up or shut up time to see that version of Emerson Hancock, and we need to see it this year. Yeah, and I'm really interested to see how or if he'll be able to get some opportunities at the major league level this year. You know, because that path isn't super clear at the moment, especially if the Mariners stay remarkably healthy in the rotation, because Bryce Miller is, ahead of him, I would say.

They already have, you know, a competition going on at the back end of their rotation. So one of those guys, if one of those guys, or if the guy that ends up losing that competition sticks around, that guy's ahead of him likely. And then is Taylor Dollared ahead of him right now? That's the other question. So I just, I'm interested to see if he'll be able to break through, if he'll be able to do enough to break through to get that opportunity. And if not, will they generate enough?

opportunity for him likely out of the bullpen, I would assume, this year. So, right. Or if he does pop at all, his trade value is going to be off the charts. And we know the pirates like him. They did. Or they did. We know they did like him. Yeah.

We'll see. Even if like, even if you're of the opinion like, oh, Emerson Hancock, I don't, I don't think he's, you know, he's a bust or whatever it is. You want Hancock to have a really good year down in the miners because that is how you hold on to Bryce Miller or Harry Ford because Emerson Hancock, you know, ticks up a half notch on the fastball grade and all of a sudden he's the number three and now he's the headliner. So Mariner fans everywhere, whether you want him to, you know, help you, you know, win the division or you want, or you don't think he will, you still want Hancock

to have a good year because his trade value could be something that is huge to the Mariners come July, whether it's Brian Reynolds or any other bat, right? So Mariner fans, if you're rooting for one of these guys on this list to really like pop and like reach their ceiling, you probably wanted to be Hancock. So moving on here, we have our second tie of the day. This one's another interesting one, one that I think could go either way. I had Cole Young, the Mariners first round pick this past year at number four. You had them at number five in favor of outfielder games.

Gabriel Gonzalez. So you had him at number four. I had him at number five. Gonzalez is coming off of a pretty incredible year. What he did at Modesto, the hit tool was nuts. It was ridiculous. At the age of,

I believe he played actually at 18 years old in Modesto this past year. He got on base at a 400 clip. Very similar to Axel Sanchez. Now he didn't hit for the 618. you know, slugging percentage, of course, but this was pretty remarkable, considering his age, considering this was his first time really, truly playing stateside. He was in the Complex League the year before. This is his first full year state side to do what he did this past year,

pretty spectacular. Not a ton of power that he's shown. And there's obviously some concerns about the body. He's probably a bat first corner outfield type of dude. We'll see how he developed and how much of a liability he might end up being defensively. But offensively speaking, there's, you know, but there's also a chance that he could be pretty good in a corner outfield spot as well. So, you know, also want to mention that. It's just we don't really know how the body is going to fill out here.

But that's the, that's the kind of the big flaw on Gonzales at the moment, or the big question at least. But the hit tool is ridiculous, like I said. So I get why you put him over Cole Young. for me why I put young over is just I think young is going to get to the to the big leagues faster potentially I really like the bat I think that he's going to at least be able to hit for a high average at the major league level we'll see about the power and ultimately we'll see if that you know makes him Adam fraser or Jeff McNeil right there's going to be a pretty

there's a pretty big gap there in what young ceiling could be at the major league level but and he's probably going to end up at second base which is why I didn't put him as a short stop on this list. I just listed him as an infielder here. But Young's bat is really advanced, and he showed that he can hit and hit a lot in his first half year, a professional ball. But yeah, got to see more power out of him before I get really, really high on him. But right now, I have him at four. I have him just slightly ahead of Gonzalez. But again, this could go really either way. What are your thoughts here? Yeah, it's kind of a toss up. I think Gonzalez is going to add some more power. I feel pretty confident about that. I'm not too sure Young is going to have the type of power

that we need. You know, it's worth noting on Young is that he's being moved to second base by most people, but it's not because he can't play shortstop. It's just he's better at second is the thing. Like Cole Young can handle shortstop. Like if you ask Cole Young to give you, you know, four or five starts a week at shortstop, he's not going to kill you. He's just not going to, uh, he's just not going to be like. He's not the type of dude. that you moved J.P. Crawford off a shortstop for. No, not yet. Maybe eventually, but not yet.

Yeah, I just, I trust Gonzalez a little bit more right now just because he does have kind of the full year over Young. And again, what he did at 18, I mean, Gonzalez is younger than Cole Young, believe it or not. So I just, I look at what their resumes and I kind of look at what their profiles are. I think the power's going to come for Gonzalez. And if I think the power is going to come, then I really don't have a to rank them over Cole Young yet.

But it's incredibly close. If both of these guys go out and have good years and Gonzalez doesn't add enough power and Young adds a little bit more, then you probably give the advantage to Young because like you said, he's probably going to save up the middle at second base. But for now, I was just, you know, I gave Gonzalez a little bit extra credit for a full year of production compared to Young's like 36 games or whatever it was. Yeah, really intrigued to see how the power develops for Gabby Gonzalez as well. Because right now, I mean the way that he was hitting and obviously this is a very short sample size, but the way he was hitting was very like Yandi Diaz-ish, you know, high on base, not really a ton of power to speak of.

So we'd like to see those power numbers tick up, especially if he's going to be a corner outfield guy here. All right. So coming up at number three, a very new addition to the Mariners farm system. We've been talking about him for the last couple of years though. He's finally in the Mariners organization. Shortstop. And again, yep, I'm listing him as a shortstop. I think he has a very, very, very good chance of sticking at shortstop here.

Still early, but I think the odds of him staying up the middle are pretty high. Felden-Selaston, who's going to be set or he's 17 years old now, likely going to start at the Dominican Summer League this year. Really excited to see him finally on the field and actually get some better eyes on him and see him play some professional baseball instead of on these, you know, backfields and whatnot like we've been seeing over the last couple years. But, I mean, you know, you ask, anyone who knows and they say the ceiling is really high for Celestin. Obviously, 17 years old,

a lot of time for his profile to just completely change. But yeah, the sky is essentially the limit here with Celestin. You know, we've heard cops like Francisco Lundor, etc., which is similar to Edwin Royal, you know, talking about replacing Edwin Royal or Emanuel in the farm system. We're kind of hearing similar talks about Celestin as well. But yeah, so what do you think about Tillerson? Obviously, we don't know a lot about this guy because you and I, we don't see these guys. We're not in the Dominican. We haven't seen this guy up front.

We've seen maybe a handful of videos and read a few reports. And we've heard stuff from guys like Joe Doyle and Jason Churchill, but that's about it. So what have you compiled here to make you feel comfortable enough to put him at number three on your list? There are a lot of paths for him to get to the big leagues. and there are a lot of tools that make him a potential all-star when he gets here. There's very little doubt from anybody I've read, anybody I've listened to, that Celestine is a shortstop. Like, he's going to be a shortstop at the next level. There's very little chance that he grows out of it even.

You know, I think the bat is, I think honestly the biggest question mark is how does the bat translate? Because there's power here. There's some raw power. you know, the defense and the arm and the speed all take care of themselves. They're all really good. It's just a matter of like, is he a, you know, is he a guy who's going to hit 230 or is he a guy who's going to hit 280? You know, and there's a lot of variables that go into that, frankly, we can't really project it 17 years old. But even if he is like a 230, 310, 390 guy, he's still an everyday shortstop because his defense is so good and he's got base running skills.

That's what I like about Seleson. That's why I feel okay about putting him at number three, despite zero professional experience as a 17-year-old kid. So I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt by putting him at three. Just because, again, this is a little bit different, right? A lot of 17-year-olds, there are lottery tickets. You hope something develops for the Mariners. They just kind of hoping that he just continues on the exact same path he's on.

And there's a possibility that he's in the big leagues by, you know, opening day 2026. I wouldn't say it's likely. Don't get me wrong. But it's there. I mean, this is a pretty high floor guy with tremendous ceiling as well. So despite the fact that he's, you know, not played professional baseball, he's still an incredible talent. We do this list a year from now. It's a decent chance that Celestin is the number one prospect in the system.

regardless of who they add to it. It's legitimate, you know, top 10 prospect and all of baseball type of upside here. We'll see if he gets there. Obviously, a lot can happen at 17. The floor is still technically, he can flame out and never even reach double A, right? That's always the concern here. But based on everything I've read, it would be somewhat shocking if Celestin wasn't a big leager to some extent in the next five to six years and he's arguably you know and of course this

includes Julio but you got to keep in mind the context of what people thought of Julio at the time that he signed this is probably the biggest international signing that jerry depoto's regime has made uh and that's exciting again when you consider some of the names that they have signed since depoto and crew arrived back in late 2015 so yeah again really excited to see Seleson finally hit the field and to see you know what he looks like playing professional baseball because

again we've talked about him for the last couple years I feel like I know a lot of you know about as much as you can about a you know a 17 year old that you haven't really seen play baseball but now I'm you know interested to see how that actually translates to the professional levels here and if he has a good year hell maybe we see him state side next year.

So, all right. We have a big one here to wrap things up. We have a tie for our number one spot. How about that? You put Harry Ford, number one. I had him number two because Bryce Miller is my number one. And I think probably Jerry DePoto's number one, the way that he talks about him. The Mariners really, really like Bryce Miller.

He's a guy that has a lot of helium. and that just continues to grow and grow over the course of this offseason, it seems. You had Miller at number two. We'll get into that in a second. Real quick on just why I put Miller over Ford, acknowledging everything that Harry Ford is, and you'll go over that, I'm sure. There's so much upside there. The fact that he can catch and hit and has the potential to hit as a like a top five

offensive catcher in baseball, also providing potentially, you know, above average defense. That's incredible. He has, to me, the most upside of these two guys. But Miller is closer to the bigs right now. I think he has a legitimate shot to be a mid-rotation starter and to impact the Mariners in 2023 in a pretty significant way in a pretty similar way to George Kirby. The fastball misses bats consistently and with regularity.

And the slider has, ticked up quite a bit here over the off season. We've seen some clips of him throwing the slider. It's getting more break. That's really exciting. Can't wait to see that in game action. Changeup should be pretty decent. I think it's coming around.

And then, of course, you got the cutter. You know, of course, a Mariners pitcher, a highly rated Mariners pitcher, of course, has to have a cutter. Those are the rules. Them's the brakes, essentially. So I'm really excited about it. Miller's potential here. And at the very least, I think there's a very high chance that he's going to be a high leverage reliever in baseball for many years to come. So yeah, lots of like his,

his floor is like elite reliever. Like, I feel like his floor is like Andres Bunoz almost. Yeah. That's just how much the fastball and slider work. But what I'm hearing, ties that you pick Miller over Ford because you saw one 12 second clip of Miller throwing sliders. So that's interesting. I put in work here. And for what it's worth, Keith Law agrees with me. So does pipeline, but I don't like them. So we'll go ahead. Daniel also agreed with you. A lot of smart people. And you have Joe on your side. No, to be fair, look, look, I'm not, I'm not trying to compare anyone here. But I would say that Joe might have more of an, you know, a line in here with the, with the Mariners prospects than maybe a Kylie McDaniel who has to cover all the organizations.

I don't know. I don't know. I feel like Joe would say that Kylie's better than he is. Oh, I'm sure he would. Don't give me wrong. I'm sure you would. I'm just saying that he might be a little more in tune with the Mariners because he's solely

focused on the marriage. I was going to say what's kind of interesting here is that when you look at guys who do this and they have like a Seattle focus more or less like Joe. Even though Joe doesn't have like a Seattle focus. But like. Yeah. I mean like he covers all the teams. He covers all the draft.

Yeah. Yeah, yeah. But he does focus a lot of his attention on the Mariners. Yeah. Right. And so does somebody like Churchill. And they both have Miller ahead of Ford. Whereas the national people. I believe he does, yes. Whereas the national people have it flip flop the other way. So it's kind of an interesting perspective there. I'm just saying, you know, I think we know why Harry Ford's father is a fan of mine and not yours. Because you're, you're downgrading. I didn't have my DM. Exactly. Yeah. Yeah. No, it's because you put Harry Ford at number two. No, Ford's, I really think Ford's going to hit, regardless of where he plays. And he's going to be the guy who puts up, like, ridiculous, like, average exevalo numbers. And I really think that's going to translate to the guy who's going to hit 270, 280, maybe 300, a couple years, 20, 25 home runs. He's a really good athlete. He's probably going to steal some backs for you.

And he's going to move around the diamond. I don't want to give up on him as a catcher yet. I think a lot of people are making that jump that like, oh, well, eventually he'll be center field second base. And I'm like the fact that you think he can go from catcher to center field, like that talks about the quality of athlete we're talking about here. Yeah. And like I said, though, like there's a chance here for him to be an above average defensive

catcher and an above average hitter, you know, offensive catcher as well. So that's. So what Ty's saying is he got hypnotized by a 12 second Twitter clip. But that's fine. Harry Ford number one. Now, here's the deal, right? If the Mariners came out tomorrow and they were like, we're moving Harry Ford to center field,

I'd probably put Miller number one. Really? Yeah, just because the value of being able to be a plus bat and play catcher, not a plus catcher bat, just a plus bat who also plays catcher, well, is insane. There's like two of those guys in baseball. And so that is extra valuable. If the guy's moving to third or he's moving to,

to second while those are still very valuable positions and so center field they're just not quite they don't just quite carry as much value as catcher so that's how close these two guys were for me but for just the upside of forward is is something that's that's pretty rare to see the quality of athlete that they have in him so we'll see what he does this year he's going to be playing for great britain in the world baseball classic so if you're going down to spring training he will be playing at chase field just down the road there for great britain and we'll We'll see if, you know, what Great Britain can do. Let's put it.

It's a tough. It's a tough pool. Let's put it that way. No, Harry Ford's going to go on a tear. He's going to, he's going to single-handedly destroy the Dominican Republic. Harry Ford is going to hit a home run off of MapRash. Book it now. I'll feel very conflicted in that moment.

Feel very, very conflicted. You know, Mariners playing against Team Canada in spring training. an exhibition. I wonder if they're going to go up against Maddie B in that game. It'd be fun. Yeah, I mean, look, he's going to play up the middle. I feel very confident about that, whether it's catcher, whether it's second, whether it's center field. He's just that good of an athlete. But I mean, we're talking

about if he can stay behind the plate, J.T. Roll Muto. A guy that can hit for power, hit the doubles, he can steal bases, like good base running. overall good defender like all like that's a very very rare player we're talking about here if he can if he can catch i would like the the mariners aren't in a rush to get harry forward to the major league level they shouldn't be at least in my opinion and so i think they should give him every chance that he can get to catch and make it work now if that ends up hurting the bat yeah in the process then no all right fine then put him at second put him in center field experiment yeah end of

experiment at that point, but because there is that shot, take it. Take it as far as you can go with Harry Ford, in my opinion. You guys heard it here first. Harry Ford. Sounds like a Bigio type of guy to me, but. Yeah. And not the mediocre second baseman for Toronto either. The good, the Hall of Fame one. The Hall of Fame one.

Yeah. Yeah. Not Cabin. Yeah. Pretty good player. Hey, you wanted Kevin Biggio on the team. I still do. I'm fine.

Cool. You really want to go down that road, huh? He's like essentially like a first space. Wrap it up, Ty. We're like 12 minutes over. Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's been a weird week with how Monday went and then, you know, getting Prospect Week.

I had so many areas. Really tempting faith here. Whatever, you know, leave me alone. That's going to do it for our show. Thank you so much for joining us here on the Locktime Airners podcast. Coulby Pat Node. Why are you raising your hands in the air acting like I'm explaining the chills meme to Jerry DePoto again?

Like, let's go. For my lovely co-host here, Colby Patnode, I'm Tidang Gonzales. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L-O-U-U-U-N-Rer-N-E. You can follow me at Dane Gonzalez, the C-A-N-Z-L-Z and Colby at C-P-E-A-T-E-1. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. And thank you again for making us your first listen. Do I need to go faster for you, pal? Now make your second list

and locked on MLB prospects host Lindsay Crosby is a prospect of encyclopedia and he's going deep on the MLB stars of tomorrow. It's free and available wherever you get your podcast just like us. And with that, have yourself a beautiful baseball day and we'll see you on Friday. Peace.