Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - 2025 Mariners Over/Unders: Win Total, WAR, All-Stars, and More

Episode Date: March 12, 2025

Ty and Colby discuss a handful of over/under props for the 2025 Mariners, including win total, second base WAR, and more.Check out our Patreon!Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @TyDaneGonzalez | @CPat11Follow the show on Bluesky: @lockedonmariners | @tdg | @mlbcolbySupport Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Wonderful PistachiosLooking for a snack that’s both delicious and nutritious? Get snackin’ and get crackin’ with the snack that packs a protein punch. Visit WonderfulPistachios.com to learn more.Supply HouseJoin the TradeMaster program today at SupplyHouse.com/TM and start ordering plumbing, HVAC, and electrical supplies with just a few clicks. Plus, use promo code S-H-5 for 5% off your first order. That’s SupplyHouse.com!Monarch MoneyTake control of your finances with MonarchMoney. Use code LOCKEDONMLB at monarchmoney.com for 50% off your first year. FanDuelRight now, new customers can get TWO HUNDRED DOLLARS in BONUS BETS when your first FIVE DOLLAR BET WINS! Download the app or head to FANDUEL.COM to get started. Bet with FanDuel—Official Partner of the NBA.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Colby and I have put together a handful of Marrars over-unders that we'll discuss coming up here on the Locked-on Marriss podcast. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners, your daily Seattle Mariners podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Ahoy, Sailors, it is Wednesday, March 12, 2025. This is Tadeng Gis-Nus and Colby Patnode for the Lockdown Marys Podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team, every day. As always, if you want to hear from me and Colby even more and help support the show, can check out our Patreon. All you have to do to check that out is click the link in the description of this episode. So today we've come up with some 2025 Marys over unders that we're going to

discuss. And this is kind of the prelude to our predictions episode that we'll be doing closer to opening day. So let's get right into them. We'll start with a prop that Colby came up with. And that's Mara's rotation, two and a half top 10 Sy Young vote recipients. while I think that really anyone in this rotation could finish in the top 10 in Syung voting gonna take the under here mostly because I don't trust the voting process and I think even if there are three or more guys in the mayor's rotation that are more than deserving of finishing the top 10 I don't think they'll get in there because there's obviously there's going to be a couple of relievers that sneak in there and there's

going to be you know of course guys from the 14 other teams are also going to have pretty good seasons on top of that uh i'll go in two though i'll say that brice miller logan gilbert get in here but uh yeah just saying three or more are going to get into the top ten is is stretching it for me is it though because i'm here to tell you the mariners have five of the ten best pitchers in the american league especially now that pulls out i mean they might does that mean that the voters are actually going to put them in the top 10 and the Salyong voting? B, BWAA has never gotten anything wrong. Okay, they are a perfect group.

Flawless. Yes. Their logic is impeccable. You can't punch holes in their arguments. Yeah. So I think the X factor here is probably going to be Kirby. We don't know how many starts he's going to miss. I mean, I know the mayors are hoping it's only one or two.

But if that turns into four and five, you know, it's going to be a little bit hard for him to to catch up essentially because he'll have to be really, really good to kind of make up for not having as many counting stats as somebody who's going to stay healthy all year. So if he only misses a start or two, he might be able to get back in time.

And obviously he would have to improve off of what he did last year on top of that. It's not just about health with Kirby. But yeah, I think Miller, Kirby, and Gilbert could all get top 10 votes So, yeah, I mean, obviously I wouldn't be shocked at all of Wu exploded this year and he got Syung votes. And, you know, I think people forget, like Luis Castillo, I think finished sixth in the

Cy Young voting in 2023. That's not that long ago. So, yeah, I mean, all five of these guys certainly have the possibility of finishing the top 10. They, I mean, honestly, they all have the possibility of winning the thing. But, yeah, I mean, three, any. Anytime you have to count on the writers to do the right thing, I'm really skeptical that that could happen. And we'll see if they even end up with three guys who deserve to be top 10.

I think they did last year, though. I think Gilbert Miller and Wu, but Wu just didn't have the counting stats. He just didn't get going soon enough. But yeah, I think they could do it. I wouldn't be shocked if all five of them got a Syung vote somewhere down the line. but top 10 you know three of them I'll go and I mean last year also like to your point about last year like Kirby was top 10 and all of baseball and F4

watch some pitchers so like he he could have easily you know you could have easily made an argument for him there as well so they could have had four guys right but yeah it's just the under is the easy answer here for me because just the voting process and there's just so many guys that they have to, there's just so many variables that have to be overcome here, really. Yeah. I guess I'll take the under, but I think two and a half's the right number. Yeah. Speaking of two and a half, how about two and a half all starts for the Maris? This is in totality, by the way. So like even if they are selected, but they end up having to be replaced and also if any Mariner's replaced guys that have to be replaced. So we're not counting

those type of players as half all stars no no darn because like you can't push here type of rats could be like half an all star and like what if they don't really deserve to be but like the mayors have to have somebody like Daniel Vogelback is that like a half all star well then you would just take the under here

right that's true so yeah we talked about this like the surprising number of like all star caliber players the mariners have on their roster Julio Randy all five starting pitchers. Lou.

Cal. So, yeah, I mean, maybe Robles if he did what he did last year. So, yeah. I think they're going to get two starters, and I think they're going to get Julio. So I think they get at least three. So I'm going to say over. Yeah, I think two and a half,

especially if we're considering guys who could end up replacing other guys that are initially selected, that's a fairly easy bar to clear. so yeah i'll i'll say i'll say they get three i'll say Julio i'll say really just pick a starting pitcher Logan would be the safest bet but i'm also really high on bryce miller this year uh then maybe munoz or cal this should be finally the year yeah this should finally be the year that cal gets the recognition that he deserves

cal should have made it the last two years also yeah he didn't so i'm sure it'll end up being adly uh in like jonaheim or some Salvador Perez. Yeah. Not even really a catcher. Even though he'll only have caught like 45 games up to that point. Uh-huh. And you know,

the All Star bid thing like doesn't really matter except when you start talking about Hall of Fame resumes. And Cal Raleigh is currently on a trajectory where we might want to start talking about him. Hey, is this a future Hall of Famer? We might want to start considering that. So yeah,

those things kind of matter. So yeah, hopefully Cal makes it. But again, I don't trust this process to do the right thing. So I mean, we know the mayors are going to get at least one. So do they get two more? Yeah, I think they probably do. I would hope one of them is cow.

Like I said, honestly, you can tell me the mayor's going to have five all stars. And I'd be like, okay. Yeah, that's what I was about to say. Like, if you told me they had six, yeah, have you told me they had one? Yeah. Yeah, kind of the tricky part with the Mariners is that, you know, the starting lineup is, fan vote and they're just not going to win any fan vote. So it's kind of tricky.

They have nine fewer spots to get in than players who play on more popular teams. So that's a little bit of a tricky spot to be in. So they just have fewer opportunities than those other players. But yeah, I think Julio, two starters, probably the most likely path to three. But I do think Cal is in there. I think Rosenerana has enough of a name and a track record that he could get. get in if he has a nice first half you know robles munoz munoz uh maybe even brash who knows so yeah i'll take the over victor robles 1.95 f4 this was another one that you set

we talked about him quite a bit yesterday we obviously talked a lot about him in general this offseason the primary topic of that discussion has been how much is he going to regress right and so this this prop here that you put together basically asks a very simple question is victor rubless going to be an everyday player or not in 2025 because two wins that's pretty much the bar to clear in order to be considered an everyday player i think the answer to that question is yes so i'll take the the over here um i don't know how over but i think with his athleticism his defensive capability is what he can do on the base pass as long as he can at least hit a little bit i think he'll get to that to win mark fairly easy uh just how much more uh can he add on top of that is really the question i'll take the over as well uh because of the base running in the defense and i do think he's probably going to be at least a 90 to 100 w rc plus type of guy uh at the very least but uh yeah they're the the the scenario where he doesn't get there is that the bad is so bad,

like Washington, Victor Roblo is bad, that he just loses playing time and they put Rayleigh out in the outfield more and more and more. And he kind of becomes a bench guy. And then he doesn't get enough at bats or enough opportunities for the defense and the base running to really collect, you know, value because war is a cumulative stat.

So, you know, that's the downside there with Robles. I think he'll be good enough offensively to be an everyday player. I do think ultimately Robles is best served as being a fourth outfielder who plays, you know, three, four times a week instead of six or seven times a week. And you kind of pick your match up and you use them when guys are tired and somebody needs a DH day, blah, blah, blah.

I think that's what you want Robles to be. But I think after what he did last year, you have to give him a shot to see how real that is. So I don't have a problem with him being a starting outfielder right now. I wish they would have gotten some insurance in case he is that bad, but, you know, surprised. They didn't. That would have cost money. So, yeah, I'll take the over. But there is definitely some downside here like we talked about yesterday.

But I feel like he's going to play enough. And with the defensive base running, he'll get to two. For sure, for sure. All right. We are going to go over more over unders in just a moment. But first, a reminder, this episode of the Lockdown Marys podcast is brought to you by wonderful pistachios. Looking for a snack that's both delicious and nutritious. Crack into a good source of protein with wonderful pistachios. Wonderful pistachios is one of the highest protein nuts. Each one-out

serving has six grams of protein, giving you over 10% of your daily value. Plus, they're packed with fiber and better for you unsaturated fats to help keep you feeling fuller longer. Personally, I love the no-shells variety. It's the perfect grab-and-go snack for busy days. Whether I'm snacking at my desk or on a road trip or just need a quick protein boost they're always my go-to and if you love cracking open every shell for that satisfying crunch the in-shell options are a classic favorite get snacking and get cracking with a snack that packs a protein punch visit wonderful pistachios dot com to learn more and you're listening to the locked on eras podcast let's continue going over these uh over unders uh let's go with another one that you came up with colby luke raleigh

19 and a half home runs. So he hit 19 and 2023 with Ray's. He hit 22 last year in his first year with Marys. I'll go over. It's a pretty easy power for Luke Rayleigh. Andrews has him at 19. Steamer. I should be more interesting.

Steamer does not like Luke Rayleigh at all. Have him as a sub two one player. Only 19 homers. Like a two oh two batting average or something crazy like that. I guess. I was going to think like, all right, maybe he's a sub two one player because they project him at first base and they just they hate first base defense even if you're a good defensive

first baseman they hate you yeah yeah uh plus you know again war is cumulative it's not expected that raley's going to get a lot of abats against left-handed pitching so already about 30% of the available abats to them are going to go to somebody else so war is tricky with the guy like railing that's why war is not the perfect uh number it's not like the only stat that matters uh just a very useful one. 19 and a half home rides. I'm going to take the over. The power,

Safeco, sorry, Team Mobile, didn't really sap any of the power. We saw that really can take advantage of the short Porsche, Porsche, short porch and right. But also,

it's actually Porsche Colby? Yeah. Is it? I always get, like, which is whatever? Let us know in the comments below. Is it Porsche or Porsche?

Yeah. Boom. Engagement. Yeah. Boom. You might just win one. Not from us, but like someone else. But yeah, he took advantage of Brightfield, you know, and also he showed that he could, you know,

absolutely rip him out to right center field as well. There is no shortage of power. And Luke Grayley, he doesn't hit cheap ones very often. And yeah, I think he's probably going to get around 500 plate appearances. I don't know where they're going to come from. Like I assume mostly first base, but that doesn't matter. If he gets 500, I feel like he's going to hit 20. least. So I think there's a non-zero shot. He hits 30 with enough playing time. Like he certainly has

that raw power to do it. So yeah, I think Rayleigh's going to basically be what he was last year. I feel very comfortable with Luke Rayleigh. You know, he's kind of done it now two years in a row. And I think we should all kind of just expect Luke Rayleigh to be a solid, strong side platoon hitter, who is going to hit bombs. He's going to steal a couple of bags too and just kind of be an energy. energy guy in the middle of your lineup. So yeah, Rayleigh, I'll take the over on 19 and a half. So we could have done a ton of difference overunders for Julio. This is the one that I wound up landing on.

0.5 top three MVP votes. So he just needs one writer to believe that he was one of the three best players in the American League this year. So essentially this question is, do you think that Julio's going to go into play at that level this year? I mean, the question is also. do you trust the writers to get this right? Sure. Because I think we know Aaron Judge is going to finish top three.

I think it's very likely that Bobby Wood Jr. is going to finish top three. Gunner Henderson. Yeah. So like if Julio has a better season than Gunner Henderson or Bobby Wood Jr., is that going to matter to the writers? He only needs it to matter to one voter. Yeah, just one person.

You can find two of those voters are from Seattle. Yeah. So, you know, I think this is really too. Do you think Kulio will have a season worthy of MVP consideration, but that's not really an over under. So yeah, I mean, if he finishes fourth, right? Is that like he's not a worthy MVP candidate? No. It's basically, though, can he play or do you think he'll play at a level that at least one writer will believe that he was one of the three best players this year?

I don't trust the riders more than I don't trust Julio. So it's a tough one. I'll go over. I think he gets divishes. Okay. Here's kind of a biggie. Aaron's second baseman. 2.15F4.

Last year, the 15th ranked second base situation in baseball was at 2.2 F4. So will they be a league average unit? at second pace or not. It's basically what this question is. I'm going to take me over. I think just defense and base running alone, the upgrade you have there with Dylan Moore, Ryan Bliss, and Cole Young,

the upgrade there over what Polanco gave you, probably going to account for at least a one and a half, I would think. And then it's kind of like, do they do enough with the bat? I mean, you know, Dylan is who he is. I would think with the defense and the base running, like they don't have to hit a ton in order for them to get here. If the Mariners got like 100 WRC plus production from their second baseman, I think they'd probably be three.

It's a pretty similar discussion to the one that we just had about Robles. Yeah. I mean, I just, I think if they're about a league average offensive, if second base is a league average offensive position for the Mariners with what we know about the speed, the base running and the defense of the three. guys who figure to most heavily influence that position, then I think it's probably a three-win position. Because Dylan Moore is a very good defender, particularly at second base. Ryan Bliss has a lot of range. Cole Young, by all accounts, very good defender at second base.

You know, Dylan's stolen 30 bags in the season. I think Ryan Bliss stole close to 50 last year when you combined what he did in Tacoma in Seattle. And then Young, probably not a burner, but he's a good base. runner and he's a good defender. So yeah, they're even close to league average. I think they beat this. So, you know, Cole, Cole,

you might be the X factor here. It's just tough because you have Dylan Moore. We know who Dylan Moore is offensively. It's not great. We don't know for sure what Ryan Bliss is, and we have no clue what Cole Young can do at 21 years old. So it's a tough one, but I'm going to take the over. I think the defense in the base running alone gets them pretty darn close.

Well, you mentioned him. Cole Young, 80 and a half games played. That's what you set it at. So essentially, is he going to play at least half of a major league season or not? I'm going to say exactly 80 and a half games. Comes in as a pinch runner for Mitch Garver in the fifth inning. So take that. This one's a little bit easier to say push.

But you know, you appear for one action. It counts as a game played. So I will take the under. I'm not exactly sure when the Mariners play their 81st game. I would imagine it would be sometime late June, early July. So I'm not exactly sure when that is, but I think Dylan Moore and Bliss will hold it down long enough that the Mariners will let Young actually develop down into AAA

and let him struggle, let them work through it like they did last year. I think those two guys will be just good enough. and I mean, Young might play 75 games. Game 81 is June 27th against the Rangers. Yeah, so by late June, I'll take the under. I'll take the under still. I think Bliss and more can hold it down for that long. And also I kind of think that whether they can or not,

the Mariners just aren't going to, they're not going to push Cole Young. Yeah, I'll take the under. And it's actually more so because I'm starting to kind of believe in Ryan Bliss. Oh, boy. I'm drinking the Kool-Aid. little bit on Ryan Bliss. I don't know. Four months from now,

Ty's going to be like, what can you get for Cole Young in a trade package? Clearly. Can you get Yondi Diaz for Cole Young? Should they? I mean, I mean, he might be the shortstop of the future.

Maybe not the second basement. I don't know. I mean, yeah, we'll see. But, yeah, I'll take the under.

I wouldn't be shocked if it ended up being the over. But also, something to keep in mind, there's the possibility that he gets called up like in early June. And then he stills him, some kind of platoon with the other two guys or that he gets sent back down. So yeah, I just think in general, like, I don't think this is the year that

Cole Young, like, establishes himself as an everyday big league player. I think that's probably more next year. And because it's not happening this year, I don't think he's going to play in 81 games. So I'll take the under. All right. We have a few more over unders to go over in just a moment. But first, a reminder of this episode of the Locktime Airs podcast is brought to you by Supply House.

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Join the Trademaster Program today at Supplyhouse.com slash TM and start ordering plumbing, HVAC, and electrical supplies with just a few clicks. Plus, use promo code SH5 for 5% off your first order. That's Supplyhouse.com. You're listening to the Locktime Marreras podcast. Got a few more over-unders to look at here. How about this one? Marr's third baseman, 2.85F4. So same thing as the second base prop 2.9 F4 was the 15th ranked third base situation in baseball last year.

So they're going to be a league average unit or not with Jorge Polanco right now looking to be the guy there, the primary option there. I'll take the under. Yeah, I'm taking the under too. The mirrors, to the surprise of many, actually finished fifth last year in third base F war. that was because of Josh Rojas's defense and really only because of that. Like we talked about during our infield preview with Polanco, at least with Rojas, there was one tool that I felt pretty good about with Polanco. There really isn't right now.

At least until we see that he's, he actually looks healthy and he's actually able to stay healthy. Well, that jokes on us because Polanco just hit an RBI single. Did he? Yes. Wow. So I'm changing my answer. All right. Boom.

Five one season incoming for Jorge Polanco alone. The RBI single. He's actually had a pretty good last few days, by the way. Well, I mean, he has to be expected. You know, takes a little while to get going and play three or four games. Yeah. So I would say the RBI single against Ross Stripling. stud

What team is Ross Stripling on now? The Royals Okay Yeah I'm taking the under Now maybe Polo can get you like Part of the way there And then you go like acquire a good third basement

And he gets you the rest of the way there But based on what's on the roster right now I'm going to take the under Blanco could make us look stupid I'm open to the possibility Yeah I'm open to of that possibility.

Would love for that to actually be a reality. Yeah, I just, I don't feel great about it. And then if he doesn't work out, then, like, I'm a Donovan Solano guy, but there's a pretty hard cap on what Solano can bring to the table. Plus, you still need Solano to kind of, you know, platoon with Rayleigh. So he can't play third base every day. And then it's Demo and then it's Williamson and then it's Shenton. I mean like Demo might only factor in

if you know second base is good if like Ryan Bliss is good and then yeah Shenton like defensively he's probably not going to get you there so he's going to have to do it all with the bat Williamson's probably going to have to do it all with the glove I just

yeah this is a higher bar to clear than the second base position like we're talking about almost a full win more than what we had on the second base prop if this was the second base prop, I'd take the over. And if this, uh,

and vice versa, right? But. Yeah. Three wins. I don't know if I'd take two wins from the Mariners third base spot right now. I just have no idea what Polanco looks like. Learning a new position coming off of an injury. You know.

Yeah. I just don't. I don't know if they can get to three wins. I mean, they only get to 2.9. Sure. so thank you colby yeah they don't have to get to three technically they don't uh i'll think the under um i'm going to go on a limb here i'm going to say that horace polanco is not going to be on either of our flag list which are coming out uh not next week but the week after uh 32 and a half wins

versus a l west teams for the mergers they had 32 last year they went 32 and 20 under under Oakland and Texas are better than they were last year. Will they win more games against the Angels at least? You'd like to think so, but I think I've been a Mariner fan long enough to know, no. If they're winning under 32 and a half, I don't think they're a playoff team.

I'm not worried about it. Like they would play what, 52 games against the West? So that means they would have 100. and 10 games left. I think they probably win 65 of those. So that's how they're going to get there by dominating everybody else. Well, you're taking the over?

Because weren't they like 11 and 2 against Texas last year? Yeah, but I feel like that balances out with better performances against the Angels. I'll take the over. For this exercise, yes. Yes, for the sake of this exercise, yes. And for the sake of trying not to be super down and try and be at least a little bit of an optimist uh i'll go i'll go 34 wins which i think

that's what they had in 2023 saying the mariners are going to win a hundred games this year they're just going to do it by only winning 30 against their division so um we've done this episode three or four times over the course of us doing this show uh now um and every single time we do this over under show. We always have this prop. Mara's 0.5 brawls. What constitutes a brawl? Punch is being thrown,

bullpins empty. Very expected question from you. Yes, punches actually being thrown. Something that looks similar to what happened in Anaheim a couple years ago. Nothing that happened with the Astros the last couple years counts. No, no, no. So we're talking, suspensions are going

to happen. Fists have to be thrown. Okay. I'll take the under. I hope it's over. Now, I want to be very specific. We are team brawl here. For those of you who are new, a lot of you already know this, but for those of you who are relatively new to the show, or maybe this is your first episode of Lockdown Marys, we are 100% team. What happened in Anaheim two years ago was like one of the most exciting things that has ever happened to us in our time covering this team. Not unironically, that's when our show really started to take off, too. We really started to end up. It had nothing to do with the ensuing 14. game win streak and that might have been our best episode ever by the way was the aftermath of that awesome uh now here's the deal um we are team brawl yep i will say there's a very specific type of brawl that i want we are also team don't get hurt don't get suspended forever yeah drop the bat right

no weapons except for your fist and uh you know push push some guys whatever like yeah you don't necessarily have to go J. P. Crawford throwing hammers over the top of a pile. Uh, you know, it helps, but you don't need it. Just a good push and shove and like somebody trying to be the top guy and get to the front of the line or, you know, you could be like Mike Trout and be a, uh, you know, a cowering little baby who started the brawl, but just sat in the back like, oh, stop guys. I didn't want this. Howard. Uh, so yeah. Mike Trout, six four, two 40 is like, I don't want none of this. J.P. Crawford's crazy. So, I believe Archie Bradley also broke his arm in that proff.

Yeah. Not from getting hit. He did it to himself. Let's be very clear about that. Yeah, I think that a team should aim to have one brawl every year. It's good for you. I mean, maybe not physically for a little bit. But, you know, like, I mean, it did seem to bring that team closer together in 2020.

It did. So, yeah, we're team brawl. I really hope it's over. And Dan Wilson, let me tell you, the 90s Mariners, they were in some brawls. Okay. So maybe. But I think more than likely we get kind of like the, the Scott service special where coaches are just yelling at each other from across the dugouts.

And then like maybe you take a couple steps under the field and they're like, you know, whatever. The Jeff Bannisters, if you will. I am interested to see how much we see Dan pop off this year. Yeah. I mean, Dan doesn't really have that like reputation of being like hotheaded or anything or confrontational really. he's just kind of a like Midwest like oh you know geez that's terrible type of thing

oh geez yeah it's very like that's terrible you stink type of thing but you know what Scott's service was from the Midwest and it didn't happen often but when it did Scott was pretty good it shouldn't have it didn't happen as often as it should have yeah but when he did decide to do it it was pretty good it's pretty good yeah uh I am still a fan of and I'm still a fan of brawls. Those are like the two old things in baseball that I don't ever want to see go away. Yeah, for real.

All right. Last prop of the day, 85 and a half regular season wins for the Marys. So this is what our friends over at Fandul have for the Marys. I think that's a pretty good spot for the M's, 85 and a half wins. They also won 85 games last year. Yeah. So, and they didn't do really anything this offseason to the roster that changes things too dramatically.

Technically, if you think Randy Rosarena and Victor Robles, kind of offseason additions and Matt Brash and Gregory Santos. And if you think about it, Colby, I hate you. I mean, I don't have to think about it to know that. But no, I'll take the over. Yeah, I'll take the over. I don't know how significantly over though. I might be at like 86, 87. As much as we joke about like the whole like,

Randy Rosa Rano is technically an offseason edition, like which is garbage. It does. Yes, yes. Having a full season of Randy, a full season of Victor, a hopefully,

and fingers crossed, full season of like Santos and Spire and at some point you're going to get brash back. Like those are some really impactful dudes. And basically a full season of Justin Turner. more or less, you know? With Solano. Like, yeah, those are some

those are some dudes, okay? They can accumulate some wins pretty quickly just by themselves. And that's not even counting the, you know, like kind of the side effect of like, hey, if Brash and Santos and Spire are good, Munoz doesn't have to pitch as much, which means maybe he can be even a little bit better

because he's not tired all the time. Maybe Randy at Rosa Rana can carry the offense for a little bit so that when Julio goes into this goes into you know the ditch it doesn't crash the entire thing and he can kind of help lift lift the ships and all that stuff so yeah i think they're over like i do think they're better roster today than they were a year ago are they better than they were six months ago probably about the same i mean it kind of depends on brash and spire and santos right so like and even those three guys combined is probably worth what another win or two yeah so like that's

counting any regression that's not counting any growth though so you know it's it's very difficult this is why we always you know kind of pick ranges of where we think the mergers can end up uh but if i have to pick a number i would say it would be higher than 85 and a half yeah i mean like if you told me this team like everything went right for them and they won 90 plus games i'd believe you if you told me things bottom out and they won 76 i'd believe you if you told me that there was just like they fell in some middle ground and they won like 82 yeah um i don't know i feel like 80 feels like the floor to me i mean barring injuries like yeah yeah um like significant injuries so i'll go over on this but i'm probably at like 86 87 wins which still might win you the division because i don't

think any team in this division is a 91 team like if things go extremely well for them like you know if and the same could be same as said for the for the mayors as well yeah sure one of these teams could win 90 plus games but just realistically speaking or just like trying to kind of attack this from some sort of middle angle I don't think any of these teams are like sure fire 90 win teams so I mean 87 wins would have gotten you in last year yeah technically 86 wins and not blowing an eight nothing lead in the fifth inning to kansas city would have gotten you in so You know, who's to say. But, yeah, I think the American League is wide open. I really don't think there's a dominant team here. So, I mean, the Central gets a huge leg up because they get to beat up on the White Sox 13 times a year each. And you only get to face them six times. But, yeah, I do think the American League is kind of bunched up there.

And it might only take 86, 87 wins to secure a playoff spot like it did last year. But I don't know. I think if everything goes well for the mayor, we're talking about 95 plus wins, not 90 plus. So I have a higher floor than you do on the Mariners this year. Higher ceiling rather. And floor, I think. Yeah, yeah, you said 80-1s is the floor for you.

Yeah, I mean, again, assuming they don't bottom out with injuries, which is always sadly a possibility with any team. I think more what I was trying to say, though, is just like I could buy really any sort of outcome that you tell me with this team. All right. That's going to do it for our show. Thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Marreras podcast for Colby Patnode. I'm Tad de Gonzalez.

Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Mariners. You can follow me at Taday Gonzalez, Colby at C-Pat 11, that's CPAT-11. We're also on Blue Sky. You can follow me at TDG, Colby at MLB Colby, and the show at Lockdown Mariners. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day and we'll see you next time. Peace.