Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - 9-24-19 Locked on Mariners Episode 29: Could Erik Swanson be Seattle's closer of the future?

Episode Date: September 24, 2019

The Seattle Mariners were off on Monday, so host Andy Patton talked about right-handed pitcher Erik Swanson, and his potential to be the team's new closer of the future. Then, Patton discussed unheralded middle infield prospect Noelvi Marte, and his potential future contributions to the big league club in the middle of the next decade. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

What is up Mariners fans? I'm Seattle Sports Media's utility infielder Andy Patton, and you're listening to the Locked-on Mariners podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network. The Mariners were off on Monday, and instead of previewing their upcoming opponent, the Houston Astros, I'm going to tell you what I think about right-handed pitcher Eric Swanson and a potential future where he is the Mariners closer. Then, in segment two, I'm going to talk about another unheralded Mariners prospect, in-fielder Noel V. Marte. Finally, we have six mariner birthdays to celebrate today,

including a recently traded reliever. Stay tuned to find out who. First, let's talk about bombas. Bombas are the most comfortable socks in the history of feet. With every pair purchased, a pair is donated. Go to bombas.com slash locked now to get 20% off your first purchase. All right, so you all have probably heard me talk enough about the Houston Astros. You've probably just about everybody talk enough about the Houston Astros. So I don't think that it's worth previewing the upcoming series against the Houston Astros like I normally do in my first segment when the Mariners had an off day. So instead I want to focus on another topic that I think is relevant now,

especially after the last couple of days. I think Eric Swanson has been kind of surprisingly under the radar good in the last couple months or so, particularly lately he's gotten a lot more attention now that he's actually closing games for the Mariners. And it's always interesting when you see a converted starting pitcher, become a reliever. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn't. The Mariners have definitely seen their fair share of both.

I think it's worth remembering that Edwin Diaz was, he did come up a starter. Mariners made that transition with him rather quickly. They didn't even let him get to the big leagues before they were like, nope, you're a closer. You're going to be our guy. And I think that I mentioned this a little bit in yesterday's podcast, but I think a lot of teams are too hesitant to convert guys into bullpen pieces when that's really the strength that they have, especially in today's game where starting pitching is less valuable than it has been in a really long time and high-quality bullpen pieces are more valuable than they ever

been. I had a 26-year-old guy who I thought maybe has a chance to be a four or five starter, but might have a better chance of being a late-inning weapon. Like, at this point, that's always the guy. You always want to try to get guys to be that, you know. The Brewers have been really good at converting starting pitchers into bullpen pieces with Jeremy Jeffress and Josh Hader. And, you know, they've had quite a few of them. And, yeah, I think that Swanson is another example of a guy that the Mariners, it clearly wasn't their plan when they acquired him. He was one of the pieces in the James Paxton trade along with Justice Sheffield and Dom Thompson Williams. And I don't think that they – well, clearly they didn't acquire him to be a reliever.

He started eight games for the Mariners this season. He started with them in AAA. But the numbers just aren't there. you know, he's given up way too many home runs. I mean, he was kind of a disaster to start the year. But he's made some pretty noticeable changes ever since switching to the bullpen. And I kind of want to highlight some of those right now and talk about why I think that this could make him successful. There's a very clear split in Eric Swanson's season.

From April 11th until July 31st, Eric Swanson had appeared in 11 games. He had started eight of them. he had really disastrous numbers. There's no other way to put. He had a 1 in 5 record. He'd thrown 39 innings in that time. He'd given up 13 home runs in 39 innings. That's really bad.

His 32 to 8 strikeout to walk ratio was good. I mean, that's very solid. A 7.38Ks per 9 is a little below average, but it's okay. His 1.85 walks per 9 is good. That's very good. But, I mean, three home runs per 9 is never, never going to get it done. Case in point, he had a 7.15 ERA, a 6.53 FIP. I mean, if you guys watched him in the first part of the year, you know what I'm talking about. He just, you know, he had back-to-back outings where he gave up seven runs in four and two-thirds against the Red Sox and then eight earned runs in three innings against the twins. He also had to start early in the year where he gave up 11 hits and six earned runs, but nine total runs against the Rangers. I mean, he was just a disaster to start the year. It was looking like a guy who wasn't ready for the big, leagues who maybe was never going to be ready for the big leagues. I mean, he really didn't

look good. And then for the second part of the season, after July 31st, you know, the Mariners traded Rowanus Aaliyas and Hunter Strickland and they made some other moves. And so they had more of a need for a bullpen piece and they transitioned Swanson out to the bullpen. He's played 16 innings since August 6th. Every one of them has come out of the bullpen. And his numbers have improved dramatically. He has a 20 to 4. strikeout to walk ratio. For those counting, that is an 11.25 strikeouts per nine and 2.25 walks per nine. So the walks came up a little bit, but that's still considerably above average, and that strikeout number is excellent. He's only given up four home runs, which still isn't great,

but it's better than he was doing before. More importantly, he has a 3.38 ERA. His 3.71 X FIP is okay. He has a 5.09 FIP, which is dangerous, and I'm going to temporarily ignore that, although that is certainly concerning that he is maybe just getting lucky. 16 innings is a very small sample size, so it's not, you know, it's something to be a little bit alarmed about. But clearly there's some improvements that were made. Swanson's strikeout rate skyrocketed, his walk rate stayed roughly the same, and he's just getting a lot more guys out, you know, plain and simple.

You don't need stats to tell you that. So this looks like a guy who could potentially be a bullpen piece. looking a little bit deeper, the biggest thing that changed, and the thing that almost always changes when these things happen, is he stopped throwing his change-up, like, completely. Like, he has not thrown a single change-up since July 31st. So as soon as he got converted to the bullpen, somebody in the Mariners staff said, hey, you're done with that pitch.

That's out. He has stuck exclusively to his fastball slider combo, which were his best two pitches. Oh, you read scouting reports on him from his days as a ranger's prospect in 2014, and that's what they said. He's got a great fastball. He's got a good slider. his change-up needs to develop for him to be a starting rotation piece.

And it just never did. You look at his numbers for the 140-141, excuse me as change-ups that he threw this year in the big leagues, and they're not good. He gave up three home runs on just 141 offerings. That's very bad. He was not getting nearly enough swings and misses. His swinging strike rate on that pitch was 5.7,

which is abysmally bad. He threw it in the zone way too much, 52.5% of the time. So basically, Swanson was just leaving his change up right over the middle of the plate, and guys were swinging at it, and when they were, they were making contact at obscenely high rates. And then when they did make contact, his line drive rate was 21.6, which is way too high.

His home run to fly ball rate was 25%, which is way too high. Hitters hit 293 off of it. They had a 585 slugging percentage. Basically, this thing was a batting practice fastball. You look at some of the other data on his changeup. It had less movement than the average change-up in the major leagues. It had one of the highest rates of location right in the middle of the zone. I mean, I'm not kidding.

He was just leaving this thing right over the plate without a lot of movement. It's no wonder, in a juice baller or not, this thing is going to get torched when he throws it. So somebody recognized this in the mayor's organization and said, well, you're probably not going to succeed as a starter with just two pitches, but you throw a decently hard fastball is about 93 miles an hour on average. It actually didn't tick up as he switched to the bullpen. I really thought that it would. His average fastball velocity from August 6th to September 21st at this point is 92.8 and before it was 92.6.

So I guess technically it tipped up, but very little. He's throwing it more. Obviously, that makes sense since he switched to two pitches instead of one. But I do think that we've seen him hit. I mean, his last couple outings in particular, I'm looking at it. He averaged 94.5 in his last outing with his fastball. The one before that was 93.2. So it's been ticking up a little bit more lately.

We also could be a little bit of arm fatigue. He did throw quite a bit in AAA. So I think that his fastball numbers over the course of a full season, if he's strictly transitioned to a bullpen piece, would tick up. He hit 96 multiple times this year. I really think that he can probably average 94, 95 with that fastball over a full season. If that slider keeps the same tight movement, he's averaged 85.6 with that since August 6th.

So if we can get that to sit around 87, 88 with a 94, 95 mile an hour fastball, yeah, we're looking at a dude who could be pretty good. Is he going to be, you know, what 2018 Edwin Diaz was? Probably not, but that's not an unfair expectation for really anybody. But yeah, I think there's some, hopefully some movement within the Mariners system to think, hey, this is maybe what we should do with this guy. I mean, he's 26. you know if he was 22 23 and you wanted to let him get another shot at starting i could understand

that but we're talking about a eighth round pick back in 2014 he's bounced around he had one really great year with the yankees which kind of got him on the prospect radar uh this is his best chance of success he's six foot three 235 pounds he's a big beefy dude throws hard when he needs to has a slider that has always been considered plus plus potentially uh i i really like him as a potential bullpen guy I don't think that the Mariners are going to just throw him into the ninth inning to start next year. They might. If he has a great spring training, maybe that's the move that they make. But I would not be surprised in 2021 when the Mariners clinched their first playoff birth in 20 seasons.

If Eric Swanson's the guy on the bump when that happens. All right, I already did a segment on Donnie Walton last week. So I'm going to focus on another one of the Mariners' young, exciting middle infield prospects who I don't think gets enough love. And that would be Noel V. Marte. And we're going to talk about him next. It's kind of hard to get used to having such a good farm system for Mariners fans. No, L.V. Marte is a kind of guy who I think would never, would be on every Mariners fan's radar, had this been four, five, six, ten, et cetera, years ago.

Because he's a 17-year-old kid. He's got a ton of excitement in his bat. He was a high-profile international signing. A lot of things that would easily have made him a top five prospect in the Mariners system for most of the Jack Z era. But because the Mariners went out and got Jared Kellanick and Justin Dunn and Justice Sheffield and because of the rise of guys like Logan Gilbert and Evan White and Shedlong and et cetera, et cetera, you guys know all these names. Marte has kind of fallen under the radar and it's a little surprising. For those of you who do not remember or were not aware of how

the Mariners acquired Marte, he was a international signing in the 2018-2019 period. He was ranked as one of the four shortstop that was in the top 10 of MLB Pipelines top 30 international prospects list. The Mariners liked him a lot. They gave him $1.55 million. This was last July, so July of 2018. He came over, he's Dominican, he came over to Arizona, played in the Fall League a little bit, but this was the first year that he actually made his professional debut in the minor league ranks. And so I think part of his kind of mystique is that we hadn't really seen him play much until this year. But even so, the numbers that he's put up this year are exceptionally good, and I think should be generating a little bit more excitement than they are. He's playing in rookie league,

again, 17-year-old rookie league. So every scouting report, everything that we predict about him is incredibly premature. You know, people change a lot at age 17 and playing in rookie ball, but I think it's worth noting some of the numbers that he did put up. He played in 65 games, so 299 played appearances. So that's about a half. half a season. It's worth noting. He had nine home runs, so you can project that out to roughly 20. He scored 56 runs. He had 54 RBIs, and he swiped 17 bases. So you're looking at a guy who had potential 20 home run, 35 stolen base type numbers. Obviously, again, again, 17-year-old kid playing in rookie ball. Not necessarily remotely going to project into the major leagues, but

It's certainly not a bad sign, you know. He had a 9.7% at walk rate, which is very good. He had an 18.4% strikeout rate, which is also very good. Again, pitching at that level, not very good. So take that with a little bit of a great assault. But he hit 309, 371 on base percentage, 511 slugging percentage. Lots and lots and lots and lots of good stuff from Marte. I think you look at some of the scouting reports.

I mean, he's got a 60-grade raw power. is his ceiling at that. They already label it at 50 right now. For those of you who have read Fangraph's prospect reports, that means that they believe that his raw power right now is 50 on a scale of 20 to 80

and has a max of potentially 60, which is really good. MLB Pipeline likes his power. Similarly, they also love his speed. They give him a 70 on a scale of 20 to 80. Some people have given him 80 run times, which effectively means he is Billy Hamilton. He used Malik's,

Smith. They have given him scouting reports that say that he is that fast. So we're talking a guy who's that fast, who has potential 60 grade power. That is potential superstar stuff, you know? Again, potential, key word, I will continue to put that caveat in there as long as you guys are listening so that we don't get too excited about him. But you can see the appeal. You can see why in years past where guys like Carlos Truenfeld and other kind of lesser known prospects were top five guys in the Mariners system. I think in any other year like that, Marte would be the most talked about prospect on the Mariners. And this year, I mean, MLB Pipeline's most recent ratings, which updated after all the trades at the deadline, still had him 11th in the Mariners system.

I have a feeling that starting next year, he will be higher than that. I think he'll be eight, nine, somewhere in there. It depends on obviously any other moves that happen over the offseason. But this is a guy that I'm really, really excited about. Again, a lot could happen. I mean, shoot, he was born just to, after the 2001 season completed. So he has never lived when the Mariners made the playoffs. That is very depressing. Hopefully by the time he makes the major leagues,

the Mariners will have made the playoffs. But hard to say. Maybe he'll be the guy who gets them there. Positionally, he is a shortstop right now. I should have said that earlier, but they're not, it's hard to tell at this point if he's going to stick at shortstop. His glove is solid.

He has some tools that his scouts really like. Obviously, the speed is incredibly helpful. It really depends on how much he feels. out. He's listed at 6'1 and 181 pounds, so he's pretty skinny right now. As he builds muscle, and as he starts to try to hit for power more consistently, I think he's probably going to beef up a little bit. That could impact, well, it will likely impact his speed, but it could also impact his positional flexibility. I'm going to do a big podcast in the near future about Kyle Seeger and the position of third base for the Mariners, short term and long term, and I do believe that

there is a chance Neelvi-Marté is an answer at third base. If A, the Mariners believe in P. Crawford long term or Donnie Walton or somebody else in the system, and B, if Marte fills out a little bit and they think he's a kind of guy who can actually give them 20-something home runs in the major leagues. But yeah, we'll see what ends up happening with him. I do think that the Mariners even mentioned that his speed would play well in center field. Now, some of you might be chuckling because the Mariners have a habit, what I would call a bad habit, of turning their infielders into outfielders for some reason. They did this with Brad Miller. They did this with Nick Franklin. They did this with Dustin Ackley. Tim Beckham this year, there are probably

10 examples that I can't even think of off the top of my head. It rarely works Sean Figgins. That's one. He's similar to Marte and his blaze, well, let's try that again, blazing speed. But, you know, a 17-year-old kid, it's hard to say. Maybe outfield is eventually the right spot for him long term. Hopefully they don't get him all the way up to the major leagues as an infielder and then convert them to an outfielder because that has proven to not be successful most of the time the Mariners have tried it. But Marte is a guy that I think Mariners fans should definitely be paying closer attention to, as he could be a big piece of the Mariners future contending teams. Guys, let's talk about sex.

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center fielder. He came up in 2014 as a 25-year-old. He only hit 250, but he did swipe 27 bases in only 328 plate appearances. He served quite frequently as just a pinch runner, but he showed electric speed. The guy in the latter shot in 2015, he had 28 games. He only hit 103, only stole one base that year. That was it. He ended up spending a little bit of time with the Rangers,

but never made it back to the major leagues. So happy 31st birthday to James Jones. Next up, also celebrating his 31st birthday is former Mariners pitcher Hunter Strickland. If the name sounds familiar, is because he pitched with the Mariners earlier this year. started the year out as their closer, he saved two games right off the bat. Then he had that disastrous outing against the Red Sox in what I think was the fourth, third or fourth game of the season.

Then he missed most of the rest of the year with an injury. He came back through a little bit with the Mariners. And then, boom, he got shift over to the Nationals at the trade deadline along with Rowan and Salyas. Technically, they were separate trades, excuse me, but amounted to the same thing. The Mariners got a handful of prospects back. The Nationals got a couple of bullpen pieces. Strickland has not had a lot of success over there. He's got a 5.30 ERA in 18 and 2 thirds innings, so I think Mariners are probably pretty glad they dodged that bullet. But anyway, happy 31st birthday to Strickland. Hopefully he gets to play some September baseball this year. Next up is a guy that I remember being one of my favorites for a while, and that would be

former first baseman and outfielder Ben Broussard, who was celebrating his 43rd birthday. Mariners acquired Ben Broussard from the Cleveland Indians for a minor leaguer named Shins Sutsu Chu, which was a trade that did not work out exceptionally well. Shin Su Chu went on to become an all-star caliber outfielder. He had some great years with the Reds. He had some good years with the Texas Rangers as well, a guy that the Mariners, I'm quite sure would have enjoyed to keep. Broussard himself was not exceptionally good.

He played part of the 2006 season after he came over from the trade. He did hit eight home runs in just 56 games, but that came with a 238 batting average. He only played 99 games for the Mariners in 2007, hitting seven home runs. runs with 29 RBIs and a 275 average. So he was okay, but just in a part-time role, had some injury issues, and then only ended up playing 26 more games with the Rangers in 2008 before that was the end of his career. Happy 43rd birthday to Ben Broussard. Next up is former catcher Jamie Burke. Jamie Burke is a local guy. He's from Rosebrook High School in Oregon, went to school at the Oregon State University. Before coming up, he had spent parts of seasons with the White

Sox for a while, ended up making his way over to the Mariners at age 35. in 2007. Actually, had a really good year as the Mariners backup catcher that year. He had 50 games played. He had 3.01 with a 363 on base percentage. Never had a whole lot of power, but hit fairly well otherwise. Not quite as good results in 2008, but he still hit an adequate 261 that year. Then he spent a little bit of time with the Mariners in 2009 before getting over to the Nationals.

And then in 2010, he appeared in one game, and that was it. Happy 48th birthday to Jamie Burke. Next up is, this is another tough name for me to pronounce, Paul Spolgerick is my guest there. He is celebrating his 49th birthday. Spolgerick played in parts of six big league seasons, played for the Blue Jays for a while, the Royals, the Phillies for a little bit. He played in parts of two seasons with the Mariners in 1997 and 1998. He was a bullpen piece for them, primarily in 98 as a 27-year-old. Not a good one.

He had a 6.48 ERA, 89 strikeouts. which is pretty solid, but 55 walks, which is not good at all. That is good for a 5.9 walks per 9. Ended up bouncing around a little bit. Was out of the league by age 29. So, happy 49th birthday to Paul Spolgerick. Last but not least, 61st birthday for Mr. Jim Acker. Jim Acker was a first round picked by the Atlanta Braves in 1980.

He ended up debuting a few years later with the Blue Jays in 83. Played for about a decade, mostly with Toronto, spent a little bit of time with Atlanta as well, and then came up with the Mariners as a 33-year-old in 1992. He only appeared in 30.2 innings. He had a 5.28 ERA. Only 11 strikeouts and 12 walks. The early 90s were a weird time where nobody was really striking anybody out. Then hitters started taking steroids, started swinging a lot harder,

and kind of the game changed a lot after that. Anyway, that'll be a happy 61st birthday to Mr. Jim Acker. All right, so for tomorrow's podcast, I'm going to recap Seattle's series opener against the Houston Astros. and we're going to take a look at the AL Playoff picture with less than a week to go until the regular season finishes up. Once again, I am Andy Patton. You can find me on Twitter at at Andy Patton, S-E-A. You can find the Locked-on Mariners podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever else you get your podcasts. Thank you for listening and go Mariners.