Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - 90+ Wins, 3+ All-Stars, Dominic Canzone 2.5-Win Season + More Mariners Over/Unders

Episode Date: March 21, 2024

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Today, Colby and I will discuss some over-unders for the 2024 Mariners coming up here on the Locked-on Marrists podcast. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariner's. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Ahoy, sailors, it is Thursday, March 21st, 2024. This is Tiding Gonzalez and Colby Patnaud for the Locked-on Marrists podcast. Thank you so much for making us your first listen. Subscribe like and turn on alerts if you're watching on YouTube or subscribe and

a five-star review on your preferred podcast platform if you like what you hear. And if you're part of the crew and rock with us every single day, let us know in the comments below. We'd love to hear from you. And if you want to hear from us even more, please consider signing up for our Patreon. You can now get a free seven-day trial to check out the show. The link as well as our social accounts is in the description of this episode. And today, Colby and I have some over-unders for one another. I believe Colby has six for me. I have eight for him. And we're going to get each other's thoughts on them. And you can participate as well down in the comments below.

We're going to start here with one of mine. Mitch Garber over under 99 and a half games played. He's played over 100 games once in his career. Do you think he's going to do it again, Colby? Mitch, please. Of course, he's going to get over. I'll take the over, mostly because I think Seattle is going to severely limit how much he plays the field.

Now, that doesn't guarantee that he won't get hurt. You know, guys who have a history of injuries tend to, it tends to be easier for the field. them to re-injure themselves, particularly if it's soft tissue, things like that. But, you know, Garber, if he's not going to catch much, obviously the odds are significantly better that he's able to stay healthy. So 100 feels like a really good number. I think the Mariners, even if he's 100% healthy and he doesn't need, you know, an I else

in any point this year. I think they'd probably like to tap him out, though, at about 120, 125, just to make sure that they have him when they need him. And there's also going to be days where you just want to get Dom Kanzone some that match at bat. You like the match up better. So I don't think he's going to do, you know, 140. I don't think it's going to be like he's an everyday player, but he's going to play a ton. I think, I think, you know, I'd probably say that 120-ish is about where I think he's going to get to.

But yeah, I think his odds of staying healthier now that he's basically a full-time DH are much better. So I think we're going to get, you know, 100 plus games out of Garver this year. And so far, so good. No, no reports of any kind of, you know, wrist soreness or, you know, hamstring pole. Nothing like that's happened in spring so far. I don't think has he appeared in the game in a game yet as a position player. I think he may be caught a couple innings, but either way, it's been very, very limited. They're being very smart.

Let us over wrong down in the comments below. You guys love to do that anyway. I'm sure you will. you don't get a lot of opportunities when I speak when Ty, you know, just, sure, but I'll take the over. Yeah, I'll take the over as well on that one. All right, what do you got for me?

All right, Ty, for this one, we're going to your namesake. Mr. Ty France, although he is a phony. He is a Tyler. But Ty France over under 17 and a half home runs. His career high is 20. Last year he tapped out at, I believe, nine. So 12. What do you think?

11. Either way, not good. Yeah. Yeah, not good. Especially from your first base. You don't want your first baseman hitting 12 phone fronts. Even 18 is not great like you did in what, 2022. So yeah, so he's gone.

You'd have to take it, wouldn't you? Yeah, yeah. You take his 2022 season if he gave it to you. So he's gone over 17 and a half twice. Obviously, he's put the work in this off season, trying to get back to being that guy. has even talked about being even more than that, right? Like we talked about on yesterday's episode,

I just want Ty to get back to putting the ball and play very often and finding grass very often. I don't really want him chasing after power. And I think the power will naturally come a little bit. And we've heard from Tanner Stokey, the director of hitting over at a driveline, talking to Ben Renere on the C-level podcast, that they've worked on tie pulling the ball more

and lifting the ball more to his pull side. So I do think that will lead to more home runs. I still think that he will fall short of that mark though. So I'll take the under, but it'll be a slight under. I think he gets like 15, 16. Yeah, I really hate hearing that from the guys at drive line that he's going to try and get to more power. And it's like, yeah, that's literally what happened last year.

So, you know, if you look at some of the projection systems, which I know people love. Steamer has him at 17, Zips has them at 15. Most of them have them at 15, 16 or 17. So I think I think I think I'll take the over barely, but I think it might be a little detrimental to Ty's overall game that he's chasing pole side power a little bit. If you can get there naturally fine,

but I am concerned that, you know, Ty France is trying to reinvent himself when he was already a really good player. So we'll see what he can do. But I'll take the over, but I think it's going to be like 18, 19. I don't think he's getting like 25, 26. Yeah, so I'm going slide over. Yeah.

Yeah. All right. Well, let's stick with Ty France here. Over under 29 and a half hit by pitches for Thai France. He had 34 last year. I know he's talked about how he's backed off the plate a little bit, and how he's just like a little more agile, but come on. He's not getting out of the way.

I'll take the over here. But I think it's a good number. You know, I think I probably at like 31 and a half, I'd probably take the under. So I'll take the over. And, you know, part of you is like,

okay, well, hopefully he gets hit by fewer pitches. But then again, his on base percentage is pretty heavily, you know, weighed by the number of times he gets hit by pitch. So can he just get hit like 30 times,

but like in the backside? or like, you know, off it, I mean, off as like, like, the flabby part. Yeah, like, like, no, nothing in the head, the wrist, the, you know, the knee, the ankle, but anything like in between those areas, sure, or the foot. Like, but, uh, yeah, I think it'll be over. Uh, I, I don't think tie is quite agile enough to get out of the way.

And I don't want him to, like, one of the strengths he has is that he's able to cover that outside corner really well because he kind of dives out over the plate. So I know he's taken, you know, he's further back from the plate and all that stuff, but I still think he's going to, you know, lean out over the plate a little bit, try and get to that outside corner more, uh, like he did in 21 and 22, hopefully. Uh, so I'll take the over. Yeah, I'll take the over as well. And honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if he shattered his career high of 34 last year because he's just a magnet for that. So, yeah. Uh, all right. What do you? got for me um let's go

hanniger Mitch hanniger big swing player kind of if you want to count on him at all he's a swing player um I don't know if I'm counting on him with this number or not but uh 299 and a half plate appearances from Mitch hanniger what do you think right so it relies a lot upon him staying healthy

of course um I I really want him to stay healthy obviously like I he's obviously swinging the bat amazing right now. And if he can carry that over into the regular season at least a little bit, that's a very valuable hitter to have in your lineup.

Especially as someone that isn't really going to be an everyday player for you. Nor should he because you want to try and manage his health as much as he possibly can. It's going to be hard to do that because Mitch Garver is the DH, right? So you're going to have to play Hanneger in the field

and that just exposes them a little bit more naturally to, you know, some possible injuries. right. So I don't trust that he's going to stay healthy though. His body will betray him. I don't even know if it's his body that will betray him because most of the injuries have been freaky accidents, right? Yeah. So I just feel like something is going to happen because it just seems like it always happens.

I hope that I'm wrong. I really hope that I'm wrong, but I'm going to take the under because I just, it's almost every year that it's happened to him. Right. Now, to be fair, Hanager, for him to get to 300 played appearances and, you know, hit on this over, it's only about 70 to 80 games of, you know, full-time starts. Like, you've got to get four at-bats or so a game. And some games he'll get five, some games he'll get two. So it's only about 80 games played. So the Mariners, you know, they probably know how to manage Mitch better than anybody in the game.

but there's just some things you can't overcome so 299 and a half I'm on the fence I would probably say I think he might get to 350 this year like so I I guess over but like this never ever bet on the number of games Machaniker plays that is my professional advice to you so we are going to do some more over-unders here in just a moment but first a reminder this episode of the locked on air is podcast is brought to you by Amazon Fire TV and Fandul. Fire TV is your destination for sports, from live games to highlights to in-depth analysis.

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Find Locked On Sports Today now available on the free Fire TV channels app. We are doing over-unders for the 2024 Mariner's. That was definitely the first time that I did that read. We were doing over-unders for the 2024 Marauders. We've gone over a few of them. Let's get back into them. I got a couple here for you, Colby.

Let's go with this one. Dominic Canzone, over under 2.5 F-4. Boy, I sure hope it's over because that would be sweeter and more savory than a nice pulled pork sandwich with a side of mac and cheese and cornbread. But we might have been talking about barbecue in between segments. Oh, it looks so good. It looks so good.

And we don't have any good barbecue places here in town. It really bums me out. Dom can zone over under two and a half. I'm going to go under. I think it's close. I know he's not going to give me anything defensively. to go towards his war total. Not going to give me a ton on the bases either,

although he is fast. So he does have the potential to be an above average base runner, but we saw some things last year about how he cut the bases that, you know, cost a couple guys some RBIs. They weren't too thrilled about it. So, yeah, hopefully he's improved there.

But this pretty much has to be all on the bat. And also, wars is a cumulative stat. How many at-bats does they need to get to two and a half wins? I think he probably needs. 500, 600. I don't know if he's going to get there. So for him to get to two and a half wins, like, as just a pure bat, and not even that, his defense probably drags down the war a little bit.

He's going to have to do pretty much what Garver did last year, which is, what, 280, 370, 500? Like, it's got to be really good. I think if you're taking the over here, you're basically betting that he is going to get more opportunities because he's good, right? He's that good. So I'm not too concerned about the plate appearances. Again, if you are taking the over, I think it's a little aggressive. I think two wins is a more fair prediction for Canzone,

which is still an everyday player by Fangraph standards. So I think he gets around there. I don't know about two and a half, like pushing three. I don't know if he's going to be pushing three this year. But hey, if he is, and that's really good news for the mayor. So you got another one here for you. Brian Wu, over under 24 and a half starts.

I'll take the over. I think they're going to have to skip him a couple times. They're probably going to have to, you know, short script him a couple times. But I don't think he's going to get hurt. Like, I know he's got the Tommy John in his in his past, but the delivery is so smooth and effortless that there's not, there's just not effort. So, you know, it's not like every single pitch you feel like he's in danger of throwing his arm out. I think he'll be fine. Obviously, this assumes that he's going to perform as well.

But he only has to perform a little bit to get there because the Mariners don't have like the guy nipping at the heels of these. Whereas last year they had Miller and Wu nipping at the heels of Marco and Flexen. This year they don't. You know, Emerson Hancock is nothing. like Reed Van Scoder. Like that's the guy you're going to, I mean, no offense to Van Scoder,

but I'm not sure if he's big league ready. But yeah, there's just not a lot here. So unless they go and they make a move early, woo from just being kind of an average pitcher is going to get 22, 23 starts before the deadline anyways. So I'll take the over here. I think he's going to be healthy.

I think he'll perform enough that they won't have to make a, a move and I don't think he's going to get skipped. This would be, but what, about 10 times, 11 times? I don't think he's going to get skipped that much. So I'll take the over. I believe we will stay healthy. And I believe he'll perform well enough to not get basically demoted by May, which is, I think, the only way he hits this under without, you know, succumbing to injury.

All right. So what do you got for me? Let's go to a guy we haven't talked a lot about the last few days because what is, what is there to say? let's talk about Julio Rodriguez, who is as smooth as North Carolina barbecue sauce, 33 and a half steals over under for Julio. That's my number. You know, I wanted to, I feel like there's a pretty good spot because at some point,

the Mariners are going to ask Julio to stop running, much like the Angels did with Mike Trout. So is that this year? Probably not. But I think that day is coming, and I think Julio is going to be, you know, smarter and picket spots, particularly with the new offense behind him. So what do you think? 33 and a half over under. I'm going to take the over.

Interesting. We talked about it with the MVP discussion. What was it last week? That Julio is going to win the MVP this year. I think he is going to have a very good shot at doing that this year. He's going to have to do something special, like potentially going 30, 40, 30 homers, 40 stolen bases or even 40 40 40 40 yeah yeah and I think he's going to push for that especially in the stolen base department because I think he's just going to get on base more this year than he did last

year and have more opportunities and he already stole what 32 last year I think 37 37 wow that was way off yes yeah so yeah I think he's going to clear that I think he's going to get to 40 yeah you look at the projection systems this year steamer has them at 32's some has them at 34 uh the fan graphs whatever fgdc has them at 33 so seems to be the number that a lot of projection systems have them at um i think i take the over uh but i do think that there will be times where the mariners have to literally be like hey julio stop uh but it also will be interesting to see with the new obstruction rules at second base like are the teams more grass bigger bases obviously and the disengagement rules and now the

You know, the fielder can't block the bag. You know, so I do wonder maybe teams are even more aggressive with the stolen bases. So I think I'll take the over. Julio might have a 50 stolen base season in him at some point. It's just a matter of whether or not he can get to it before the Mariners and him kind of come to a mutual decision that like, your bat is too valuable to risk, you know, trying to steal 40 bags a year. Unfortunately, that that conversation comes for just about every. player with the kind of power that Julio shows.

So I don't think that's this year, though, so I'll take the over. All right. What else you got for me? George Kirby. I know, spoiler alert, Ty is almost certainly taking him to win the Syong next year and our next week in our, see in our, you know, big picture or preview. But George Kirby, obviously took some steps forward last year. In some ways, took some steps back from his rookie year.

One of them was in the strike. out department. Doesn't miss as many bats as you would like for a guy who could be an ace. So I'm wondering this year, does he miss a few more bats? Does he get a K per 9 of greater than 9 K per 9? Yes. In order for him to win the Siyang, he's probably going to have to clear a K per inning. And I think he'll do that.

Yeah, last year, 8.12 K for 9. his rookie year 9.21. We know that this spring he's worked on trying to induce more swings and misses by, you know, pitching more outside the zone. Part of the reason why his numbers aren't great, but also George Kirby's never been very good in spring training and it literally has never mattered once. So I think he's going to probably come in in the high eights. I just,

I don't see a pitch that he can regularly get swings and misses with aside from the fastball. And typically guys who are, you know, fastball is their swing and miss pitch. They tend to not be at nine. They tend to be in the eights, the high eights. So we'll see. Certainly couldn't be that surprise if he did it.

I mean, pretty much nothing George Kirby could do on the mound would surprise me anymore. But yeah, I think you're probably going to see high eights K per nine. And then probably, I mean, almost certainly a sub two based on ball per nine, but maybe even a sub like 1.5 based on ball per nine.

You could also strike out a lot of dudes by just dotting up the corners freezing them. You can, but it's hard to strike out dudes if they won't let you get to a two-strike count because they're so aggressive early in the count. That's good point. Got some more over-runners for you coming up here in just a moment. But first reminder, this episode of the Lockdown Marys podcast is brought to you by prize picks. Football season may be over, but the action on the floor is heating up.

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pick less. It's that easy. And you're listening to the Lockdown Mariners podcast. Thank you again for making us your first listen

as we go over some over unders for the 2024 Mariners. So now we're at the part of the show where we're just going to focus on the Mariners. We're going to focus on big picture over unders.

So I'm going to start here with over under 15 and a half wins before May. They're playing 30 games before the month of May. So are they going to finish over 500, basically. God, I hate this over under so much.

It's so stupid. I couldn't care less. They've been talking about wanting to have a better start to the season. Yeah, because if they go 14 and 16, it's over. As opposed to if they go 16 and 14, they're one in the World Series. Huge swing. Just tell us, are they going to go over 500 or not before the month of May? You know what? They're going to go 15 and 15 just to spite you. Okay. Cool. Great.

So technically under. All right. All right. Which one do you? What do you have from me? Oh, good. We're done with that one. Sorry. So let's go. Let's talk about the midsummer classic, which unfortunately will not be back in Seattle. Last year, the Mariners had three all-stars up here in, you know, the last game of T-Mobile Park in their entire careers. Kind of a disappointing number considering. But my question to you is, do they have more all-stars this year? So three and a half all-stars for the Seattle Mariners this year, over under.

I noticed my banner hasn't been put up. Interesting. Oh, let's do that. Interesting. Mine is not worthy of the banner. All right. Let's let's throw it up there. It's up now. It's up now. Does that appease you? Comrade Colby? No, it doesn't.

Hmm. No. I don't care. I will not ignore the plight of the working man. Which is me. You will not. That's right. That is you. Also me.

All right. So all star selections. Uh, three and a half. our selections. So they had three last year after some guys got hurt or whatever. I'm going to take the under. I'll say three. I'll say three again.

I'll say, do you want me to just like pick the guys? Sure. Why not? All right. Julio, duh. Right? George Kirby. Duh. And then they were running it back with the same crew last year. Cal Raleigh. let me tell you you're wrong it's an over and the correct answer is nine no the correct answer is six actually that that would be a fun get back with the rangers because the rangers had so many all-stars last year in seattle now it's being played in arlington like i have like six or seven all-stars down in texas i'll take i'll take the under because you know what east coast bias folks i'm pulling that car out good answer good answer the answer is six julio louise jorge i'm

George, Logan, Cow. Yeah, that's a good one. Mitch Garber is the DH. Another win one. Over under 34 and a half wins versus AOLS teams this year. They had 33 this past year.

Well, they're getting 12 against Oakland. That's a lock. Lock that in. They were, what, 11 and 1 against the A's? Did they go out if he did? 12 and 1, I think, last year. Oh, yeah, yeah. And then the year before they were like,

What was it? It was the last year they played 19, right? And they were like 17 and 2. Like just insane success against the A's. And I know people are like, it's the A's that doesn't matter. Well, tell that to the Houston Astros and the Texas Rangers who are like barely above 500 against the A's. Those ones count. So what they have last year?

33. Yeah. I'm going to go. So they play 48 games or 52. 52. That's right. 13 games, right? Each.

I think the Angels are going to be a pain. They always are for the Mariners anyways, regardless of the team. But that bullpen, it's got some dudes. And obviously, you know, we'll see where the next David Fletcher, Max Stasse is. It's going to be Evan White. Yeah, I mean, fine, whatever. I will take the, what do you say, 33.5? 34.

I don't know because there's no banner up. It was up. I'll take the under, but I think it's going to be more balanced. I think they'll drop a couple more against like Oakland, but then they'll win a couple more against like Texas. Gotcha. So I think it's going to be under, but it's going to be,

it's going to feel like they're playing better against the division because they're not going to get run out of the building every time they play the Texas Rangers. All right. So we're down to our last two. You want to do yours? I feel like we should save mine for the grand finale, because it's kind of like the all-encompassing number that's the only one people care about.

All right. now the big one here for me sure over under 0.5 brawes so are they going to get in a brawl or not now what defines a brawl punches is it just any bench oh punches okay so like the benches can clear and they get to like shout at each other yeah is a push like a punch we're talking we're talking like angels mariners like actual fist to cuss so not not anything that the mariners and astros have done that none of that is a brawl no like actual hands being thrown own. I'll take the under.

You suck. You're boring. Well, Jose Cabiero's gone. Like, who's the number? Who's the person most, like, likely to instigate a brawl on this team? Brawl almost exclusively feels like a divisional thing, right? Like, you're not going to get into a brawl with like the Orioles. So, like, never know.

They might start chirping at you. I mean, maybe. One thing we know is that the Mariners are at fault for all the dustups because they just keep on hitting other players even though they're the most hit team in the league and they hit the fewest batters in league but it's still the mariner's fault scott service yeah i guess he just wasn't raised right um so yeah i'll take the under still i think they're gonna finally throw hands with the astros this year i know that's weird because like malinato's gone cabbiero's gone like all these guys that have like started stuff with one another and like it seems like it's gotten close maybe stanick is the instigator there those little you know high and tight against like altouva or something like that and yeah we'll see we'll see i just i don't think that they're actively looking to brawl very clearly um so yeah they don't start they've they've been very disciplined when it comes to that because there there have been moments where they could easily fight another team i guess their parents raised them right double callback

yeah bring back possibly all right I'm taking the over I think I think they're gonna I think they're gonna throw hands just one right and I think it's

and I think it's gonna be the asterisk yeah just just one just one as a treat okay and preferably like earlier in the season and hopefully no one gets hurt I don't know if I want anybody throwing punches

you know as long as no one gets hurt I'm all for it yeah last time this happened somebody broke their arm it wasn't a mariner so we didn't care but like still. Wasn't a mariner?

No, out of sight, out of mind. Okay, fair enough. All right. So last over under, probably the big one, the one that easily carries the most significance. Ty, the Mariners have been stuck in this like 88 to 90 wind window

for the last three years. Yes, I feel like I've heard something about that, a certain percentage. So, Ty, my question to you is over under 54%, one percent. Over under 90%,

90.5 wins do they finally get into the 90s, you know, above that 90 mark, which it seemed to be the plateau since, what, 2001? Had they had a 91 win season since then? I guess probably 2002, 2003. Yeah, yeah, they were 93 in both of those years. I don't think they won 91 games since 2003. Yeah. So it's an arbitrary.

So I'm going to be honest. So I don't know if you saw, but, uh, jage ran a, poll for everyone on Mariner's Twitter. Shout out to the page page where you pick division winners and MVPs and all that stuff, right? And there's one for Mariners win total.

I picked 86 to 89. You are such a soft little Mitch. Good one. Mitch, you're crazy. That's right. So. But you know what? I think I've had a change of heart. Ooh, look at that. I

bullied him into it. take 84 take the lower number i've had a change of heart they're winning 78 games yep i knew it end of episode uh yeah no uh i'm gonna take the over so what i would say like in all seriousness like you're betting money yeah like the 86 to 89 range probably the safest place to put your money uh i think they're going to be right on some of these bets that they've made this off season like Canzone or Reus, whatever. You know, I think a couple of things are going to go wrong or they're not going to be right on something.

That's how it always goes. Something that you think is, you know, locked in right now might not be, you know, in a couple months' time, whatever. But I also think that they're going to be good enough to make a significant addition at the deadline, and that's going to kind of push them over the hump for the final two months of the season.

I think they will win 92 to 94 games. I think I look at this roster and I say, assuming that like nothing goes catastrophically wrong, 92-ish wins feels like the top and that's not counting if things go really well and you add at the deadline

and blah blah blah so I think I'd probably take the over but I don't think they're gonna I don't think they're quite good enough to push like 95 to 100 wins but I do think that 88 to 92 seems to feel like

you know we'll get our official predictions on how many games they win next week I guess I already did I mean, kind of, yeah. We'll see if you change your mind again, though. You're kind of a flip-clopper.

Yeah, that's right. Kind of a, let's a seesaw, if you will. Yeah, yeah, call back. There we go. There we go. On fire. See, I'll take the over. We'll see how everything, you know, works out health-wise.

And obviously, there's a lot of question marks in that regard. We'll see if enough guys take a step forward. But, you know, I think people, a lot of people seem to forget that the Mariners won 88 games last year. And a lot of things went wrong. with a lot of things going wrong. So, yeah, I just feel like the floor is so high with the squad that they're going to, I would bank, like, if you could get 84 and a half from anybody, take it and laugh at them. But yeah, I just feel like enough things are going to go right.

They're going to swing in the opposite direction this year that they're going to win, you know, 91, 92, 93 games somewhere in that range. And then if just enough goes right and they make a big addition, they could push 95, 96. So we'll see how it goes. But I would bet the over on this. but I think 90 and a half is probably the number, maybe 89 and a half, where you kind of start to go like, could go either way. Yeah, I think with this pitching staff,

and I think the offense is going to be good enough. I don't think it's going to be a great offense by any stretch of the imagination, but I think it's going to be good enough when compounded by that pitching staff, and they're going to win a lot of games. I think they're probably going to win a lot of, you know, one to two run games this year as well. That is going to do it for our show. hope you guys enjoyed our overunders today and hopefully you guys participated as well would love to see your guys's answers to all these overunders down in the comments below before we get out of here once again a reminder that locked on has launched the first ever national sports 24-7 streaming channel on youtube and now it's also available on amazon fire tv and the free fire tv channel app locked on sports today is here for you 24-7 covering the top sports stories of the day with the local experts of locked on plus our national shows covering every league find locked on

sports today now available on the free fire TV channels app and again thank you so much for joining us here on the lockdown marries podcast for colby pat note i'm ty dang gizalas be sure to give us a follow on twitter at lo underscore mariners you can follow me at tie dame gonzalez and colby at c pat 11 that's cpat 1-1 you can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode thank you again for making us your first listen have yourself a beautiful baseball day and we'll see you next time peace