Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Are the Mariners Gearing Up For Run at Japanese Star in 2026?!

Starting point is 00:00:00 Could the solution to the Mariners third base problem simply be a bridge to making a run at one of the biggest nameset to come out of Japan next winter? We'll answer that and more coming up here on mailbag Monday. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Ahoy, sailors. It is Monday, October 21st, 2024.

Starting point is 00:00:30 This is Tadding Azales and Colby Patnode for the Lockdown Maras podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team. day. We're going to be opening up the mailbag like we do here every Monday and answering some of your Mariners questions. We'll also be spinning the wheel for our top five Tuesday topics. So be sure to stick around for the end of the show for that. But before we get into everything, shout out to our title sponsor today. Price Picks. Download the Price Picks app today and use the promo code Locked on MLB. That's LOC, K-E-O-N-M-L-B to win $50 instantly when you play your first $5 lineup. Price Picks, run your game. And if you want to hear from me and colby even more and help support the show check out our patreon sign up now to

Starting point is 00:01:10 hear us create our 2025 mariners off season plans before we show them off here all right let's get into your questions ross wants to know uh you both seem to be treating hanniger getting df aid as a given which is certainly what should happen what gives you the confidence though that ownership will allow that contract to be treated as a sunk cost what are the ripple effects if they don't. I would hope that ownership would let Jerry do his job because I think Jerry believes the same thing and he would make that decision. But because ownership is going to be involved, because there's money involved, I mean, I'm not super confident they will, but I think they should. So I'm going to operate under that assumption that they should do something that makes baseball

Starting point is 00:02:00 sense. So that's why I'm operating under that assumption. Am I, do I feel great that they're absolutely going to do it. No, because I think John Stanton will say, well, we're paying $17 million and he can be on the bench. So we're going to get some money back out of that. And you're just, you're not. You're not. Mitch Hanigers, I mean, frankly, on the field, he's

Starting point is 00:02:20 worthless to you. Can't hit lefties, can't hit righties. Or you can hit righties a little bit. Can't play defense, can't run the bases. He's just a 17 million. He's getting well at home this year, but that's about it. Right. In a very small sample size where they were protecting his uh his matchups and all that stuff like he barely played in the last month so i think that's a

Starting point is 00:02:42 pretty good indicator of how the mariners feel about him he's just not one of those guys you got negative value out of him he was worth negative point six up for so no you there it's not a slam dunk that you're going to get any sort of return on your investment here right and you can keep him on the bench uh at 17 million dollars or you could just eat the 17 million dollars spend 740 000 dollars more to replace him and get somebody who can at least play defense somebody who can at least you know run the basis so moving on from him might be 17 and a half million dollars worth spent more than just keeping him on the roster right and like i said he like hanager is so for lack of a better term worthless on the field that like replacing him with even somebody like a cade marlow or a dominant can

Starting point is 00:03:37 zone is actually better than having Hanager on your roster, even though those guys haven't proven that they're big leaguers even, let alone good big leaguers, because at least they can run a little bit. They play better defense. They have a better shot to hit. So yeah, Hanager absolutely shouldn't be on this roster. And I think if it were up to just the baseball people, he wouldn't be. So I don't know how much Stanton is going to allow for that. Well, if he is on the roster rule here, Jerry, like, no, we think, you know, he's, he's as. something to the club, blah, blah, blah, he'll sell it. He'll try to sell it like he always does.

Starting point is 00:04:11 But he's not going to convince me that if he was building this team the way he wanted it, Mitch Hanigur would not be on this roster. So that's the assumption I'm going to make that he won't be. But of course, there's a very large chance that he will be because ownership doesn't want to eat $17 million because they don't believe in a sunk cost. But it's already a sunk cost. And also, you should still view it as you saved money because you got out of the rock be rate contract a lot earlier.

Starting point is 00:04:40 Say $30 some odd million dollars. Yeah. So you're still in a much better position financially speaking than you would be had you not made the deal in general. So just eat the money. Move on because he doesn't make any sense

Starting point is 00:04:55 for this roster. Right? The ripple effects as you asked about are that it creates a massive headache for you that you don't need. It's a completely unnecessary headache. That would be completely self-imposed. Right. And let's just be honest about it. At some point,

Starting point is 00:05:15 Mitch Hanager is going to be off the Mariners roster. You carry him into the season and you do it in June. All you've done is you've wasted the, I don't know, 100 played appearances you've given him and you've played a man down for essentially the first two months of the season. And you still have to pay him all that money. Like you're not saving money. Like you're giving Mitch Hanigar his money, whether he's here or not. So just pay him to go away, essentially. CJ wants to know, if you had to trade one starter, no ifs, ands, or butts about it,

Starting point is 00:05:47 butts with two T's. Who would it be for a one-for-one player swap, realistic for both teams? Sure, I've got one. I don't think it's the answer that you're looking for, because I think you want us to be like, Bryce Miller for Jared Duran or whatever, George Kirby for

Starting point is 00:06:07 Royce Lewis, like no. It's Louis Castillo for Matt Olson. Sure. I'll go with Logan Gilbert for Ketel Marte. Yeah. That's something we've talked about. Yeah. You trade a fringe

Starting point is 00:06:24 Sy Young contender for a fringe MVP candidate. Right? Three years of Gilbert for four Marte, who's older. Yep. But he's cost-controlled. More expensive for now. Yeah, more expensive, but he's cost controlled. So you know what's coming. And he's getting cheaper by the year, actually.

Starting point is 00:06:40 So it's $16.6 million this year and next. Right. And then $14.6 million in 2027 and $13 million on a club option in 2028. Whereas Logan's more of an ascending player and Marte, just based on the age curve. Yeah. It is, in theory, a descending player, but is still very, very good. Right. And the Diamondbacks, their offense is still pretty good, even without Cattel Marte.

Starting point is 00:07:04 It's obviously nowhere near. has good, but still pretty good. And pitching was such a massive issue for them this year. So that does make sense on both ends. Would both sides actually do that? Who knows? But that's an idea for you and the spirit of the question. I don't think either side would do it, even though it's totally fine.

Starting point is 00:07:23 But, yeah, and Castillo and Olson, they're making both roughly the same amount of money for the next four years. But Olson does have one more year of club control. than Castillo, but that's not necessarily a good thing when both of these guys are 30, 33 years old, like somewhere in that, that declining stage of their age curve typically. So, yeah, the money works fine. The Braves desperately need pitching their offense can more than withstand losing one of their bats. So, yeah, Olson didn't have a particularly great year.

Starting point is 00:07:59 But, you know, neither did Castillo, really. So I just think it makes sense. Zach wants to know first non-hunter-cranton 2024 draft pick to get the call up. I think another one of the exciting Reliever profiles, Brockmore. Yep. 100%.

Starting point is 00:08:16 98 to 101 with a fastball that has both ride and run on it. A pretty good wipeout sweeper. And a change-up that is pretty promising last I heard. It actually has a shot to be a legit third pitch. We'll see if the Mariners want to give up on the idea of him starting.

Starting point is 00:08:33 There's command and control issues there. It's a very violent delivery. So there's some durability concerns about can you go four, five, six innings. So they just want to stick them in the bullpen to start next year. I can see him up. I mean, honestly, the stuff will probably be so good. We'll see him in spring training and we'll be like that that's a major leader. Yeah, he's going to be 25 for most of the next year.

Starting point is 00:08:55 He's going to be a fast riser. If he enters spring training as a reliever next year, he'll be up by July. He'll make his debut before July. All right, we're going to answer more of your questions here in just a moment. But first reminder of this episode of the Lockdown Marrace podcast is brought to you by Price Picks. Price Picks is the easiest, the most exciting way to play daily fantasy sports. Unlike other apps on prize picks, it's just you against the numbers. All you do is pick more or less on two to six player stat projections and watch the winnings roll in.

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Starting point is 00:09:53 You don't even need to win to receive the $50 bonus. It's guaranteed. Price picks run your game. And you're listening to the Locked on Marist podcast. It is Mailbag Monday. Be sure to stick around until the end of the show because we are going to be spinning the wheel for our top five Tuesday topics for tomorrow's show. But let's get back into your questions here in the meantime.

Starting point is 00:10:19 Darren McCacken and Joyer wants to know with the World Series coming up. Who on the 40 man do you see stay on the 40 man? Who do you see being non-tendered, outrided, DFAid, etc.? Anyone in the farm that needs to be added to protect from the Rule 5 if so do you protect them or not love the show we love tie and colby not darren macacaquette we've replaced darrow macaquec no we're better at our job than he is at his so it would be easier to tell you who's not going to make the 40 man roster

Starting point is 00:10:54 uh firstly you know all the guys that finished the year on the 60 day iL they're going to count towards the 40 man roster uh during the off season so matt brash Jackson Coar. Jimmy Garcia is a free agent, so he doesn't count. And then Sam Harrierty. Harity is R-Beligible, and I think we're pretty firm on. Yeah, he's going to get non-tendered. Very well could be back on a minor league deal.

Starting point is 00:11:22 I would almost expect it, to be honest, but he will be non-tendered. Yeah. Co-R will see because he's not R-Beligible, so they'll probably just keep him on the 40-man, at least for a little while. Right. I mean, we should point out that the 40 man right now sits at 43 because of the 360 day guys. And then Garcia, who's a free agent, so he doesn't count. And Turner is also a free agent, but that's for free agents. Right, those are the only two.

Starting point is 00:11:50 So, yeah, right there you take away Garcia, you take away Turner. You're down to 41. You're not going to tender Haggerty, so that drops you to 40. So right there, you're compliant. But you're looking specifically for guys who could be DFA at some point this winter. The Mariners are still nowhere near a 40 man crotch. Yeah. So Luis Arias is going to get non-tendered.

Starting point is 00:12:14 I feel pretty confident about that at the $5 million as he's projected to make. Yep. I would think that two of the trio of Chagua, Thornton, and both are going to get non-tendered. And maybe they keep one. Maybe they keep two because really those numbers. that they're projected at are not egregious. But I do feel like that's an area where the marries go. Yeah, we can do better for her.

Starting point is 00:12:40 We can do about the same for about a million dollars loss, right? Yeah. Because they just did it. Right. Soussato and Spire also on the 40 man. Yeah. You need to get tendered. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:12:52 It's pretty similar situations, but also Saucato's making a million dollars. Spires making 900K. Right. That's hardly over the lead minimum. Might as well just keep them around. for as far as insurance policies. See how they look in spring and if, you know,

Starting point is 00:13:08 yeah, spires out of options, I believe. If he just doesn't look right, his DFA in the spring, no reason to do it this winter. Yeah. And so after those guys, I mean, obviously Hanager, we'll see what they do with Hanager,

Starting point is 00:13:20 like we talked about earlier. And then there's like the French guys, like an awesome kitchen. Right. Obviously, Polanco will fall off the 40 man to do when they decline his option. So really there's going to be three free agents and that takes care of your 60-day IL guys

Starting point is 00:13:35 after you're non-tender, Hagridi. So you're already at 39, and, you know, like you said, both Thornton, Chirgwa. Pretty likely at least one of those guys, if not two of those guys are non-tendered. So you're already at like 36, 37. Yeah. And then Rojas will see.

Starting point is 00:13:55 That's kind of the big question mark right now. Yeah, Rojas. But like you see, your Reyes will be non-tendered, so you're down to 30. already. Coar, we'll see. But, you know, like, again, the Mariners are nowhere near a 40-man crunch. They're just not there yet because you start looking at, like you said, awesome kitchens.

Starting point is 00:14:16 Easy DFA, maybe have to. Jonathan Diaz, Samad Taylor, Cade Marlowe, Cody Bowman, Carlos Vargas, Carlos Vargas, you know, there's like eight guys that the mirrors could DFA if they had to make room. That's not counting the probably four or five guys they're going to non-tender. And then the couple guys who have options, one of which is almost certainly not getting picked up, one of which that is. So without even making, without even DFA in anybody, we're already at seven free spots on the 40 man. So this isn't a concern. And then as far as the rule five eligible guys, there really aren't any.

Starting point is 00:14:58 Taylor Dollar might be the most notable rule five eligible guy. and he's thrown eight innings in the last two years. Nobody's drafting him. And if they do, who cares? Right. And then maybe Jimmy Joyce. Probably not, but maybe.

Starting point is 00:15:14 Yeah. And that's really it. You have plenty of spots on the 40 man. So if you want to protect somebody like Jimmy Joyce, you can because you can just DFA them later in the winter. But yeah, uh, the 40 men are the,

Starting point is 00:15:29 uh, the rule five is not, not a thing this year for the, Mariners. They don't have to worry about it. No. Next year is going to be a bit more interesting, potentially. Tyler wants to know, what's one transaction that would surprise fans the most, understanding what's possible financially? I mean, spending actual real dollars on someone would be pretty surprising.

Starting point is 00:15:50 Handing any hitter more than $16 million. Yeah, yeah, that would be very surprising. Or actually finding a way to repurpose Hanager's money. It would be pretty surprising. Yeah, I think if they like signed Christian Walker, we'd all be like, whoa, like, didn't see that coming, even though it totally makes sense. I think if they signed Santander, if they sign Walker, you know, if they do something like that, which yes, they can absolutely afford. Yes, they absolutely should do stuff like that. Do we think they're going to?

Starting point is 00:16:23 No. So that would be surprising. But it's something very realistic that they should be able to accomplish if they really wanted to. So, yeah, it's something. something like that. It's bringing in like a good offensive player and spending good like above league average money to get that player. Because you know what? Mitch Garber giving him two and 24, that's nothing. That doesn't count. Like that's not anywhere close. It's like give Anthony Santander like four and 80 and we can talk about the Mariners commitment to, you know,

Starting point is 00:16:59 strengthening the offense through free agency. agency, blah, blah, blah. But yeah, pretty much spend money. And I think the number they have to hit is pretty low. They give any hitter, any free agent hitter more than three years and more than like, I don't know, 15 million AAB. I think that would be pretty surprising to most of us. Yeah, yeah, for sure.

Starting point is 00:17:19 All right. So we have a couple more of your questions to answer here in just a moment. But first, a reminder, this episode of the Locktime Marys podcast is brought to you by Fandul. NFL fans can start the season. with a big return on Fandul, America's number one sportsbook. So when you get a hunch in the middle of the game, you can check out the latest stats of you live play by play

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Starting point is 00:18:10 This question comes from Max, who wants to know since the Rockies have reportedly said they are going to cut payroll. Is there anyone on that roster you would trade for? The Rockies are cheeks, so nothing. Right. The only guys that you would be interested in on the Rockies are the guys making the minimum. Yeah. Nolan Jones, who's terrible this year. So even that's a risk.

Starting point is 00:18:32 Tovar doesn't get on base. So there you go. And Brenton Doyle, who's not getting traded because he's making the minimum and he's really good. That's it. All right. Mariners to the moon. This is our last question of the day. Mariners to the moon wants to know with the relative lack of depth at third base of the miners outside of Ben Williamson and or some of the shortstop prospects moving positions.

Starting point is 00:18:57 Do the Mariners try to find a long-term solution at third this winter, or do they settle for a stopgap and go hard after Murakami next year? I mean, I think it's pretty likely, given how the third base market looks that you're going to end up with, like, a stopgap type of player at third base, or a bridge type player, however you want to look at it. I don't think that bridge is necessarily towards Munitaka, Murakami. who, by the way, for those who don't know,

Starting point is 00:19:30 third baseman from Japan who's going to be possibly the biggest name to come out of Japan next winter. That's depending on if Roki Sasaki gets makes his way over as well. It's sounding like it's trending that way. But yeah, we don't know.

Starting point is 00:19:47 We also technically don't know Murakami is coming over next winter yet. Although he will have served his time or whatever and blah, blah, blah. I don't think Sasaki will we'll have. No, Saki would still be an international amateur free agent, like you'd be treated under those guidelines. If he came over next year, I believe

Starting point is 00:20:06 I believe that Murakami is, is, would be a regular free, like a posted. Yeah. And I'm not mistaken. That means that Murakami can make as much as he wants. Right. And free agency, which pretty much puts the merits out of contention. More than like, although, again, John Sand did say we don't want to sign older players. Sure. And he would,

Starting point is 00:20:30 Murakami would come over at 26 years old. Sure. But pump the brakes a little bit on Miracami anyways. Dude strikes out a lot in Japan. Sure. Now he's going to come over here and the strike. Pan pitching is pretty good though. It is,

Starting point is 00:20:48 but you're not seeing the same pitching in Japan that you are in major league baseball on a night to night basis. Sure. Sure. I mean, let's not compare the two leagues like they're remotely close. in terms of talent. The top end talent, probably. I think the gap is closed a bit, but it has.

Starting point is 00:21:03 But again, we're talking about a guy who this last year struck out 180 times in 610 play appearances. Yeah, that's, that's concerning. Yeah. Now, he draws a lot of walks, mainly because he's a big power hitter over there. And he tends to get pitched around. But he expands the zone. The strikeouts have been escalating quickly over the last few years. He went from 128 to 168 to 188.

Starting point is 00:21:27 In the same time, his batting average went from 318 to 256 to 244. And his slugging went from 711, nice, 500 to 472 in Japan. The home run total has 39, 56, 3133. This isn't a profile of a guy who's like, oh, my God, you have to have him. And by the way, my understanding, not a very good defender at third base, probably better suited for first base. So it's not a no-brainer. Like, there are some red flags here, uh, including. including like can this dude, you know, is this dude going to strike out 200 times?

Starting point is 00:22:02 And if he is, is he going to hit at least 230? Is he going to walk as much as he does in Japan if he's swinging and missing that much here? In the big leagues, like, I don't know. So there's some legitimate red flags there. So I don't like the idea of like, oh, we have to save a seat for this guy we may or may not get. But I think like Ty said, they may not have an option other than a stopgap third baseman. but I don't think it's necessarily for Murakami. I don't know if the mayors are going to be all that interested in him based on the cost to acquire and the red flags and the profile.

Starting point is 00:22:36 So, yeah, they probably are going to acquire a stopgap third basement, but that's probably has more to do with the fact that there's nothing else really available this winter. At least it seems. I think your next long term third basement is going to be cold Emerson. Yeah. Probably if he's not a long term shortstop. And that timeline isn't going to start until mid-20206 at the earliest. Maybe start of 2026. Into 2025, maybe.

Starting point is 00:23:08 Really? Maybe. Maybe. Wouldn't bet on it. But if you're like, what's the earliest, we could see Colt Emerson? July or August next year. Sure. When are you most likely to see him?

Starting point is 00:23:18 Probably a year after that. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So, yeah, I just, by the way, when I say stop cap, option at third base or a bridge at third base this year doesn't mean that that guy is necessarily going to only be a mariner for a year it just might be as we've talked about over the last couple weeks might be someone that probably shouldn't be playing third base who ends up playing third

Starting point is 00:23:41 base for you this year it's probably better suited to play first base or d h in future years so like jake burger for example maybe he plays third base for you this year which but you know after that because you still have him for three more years after that maybe he's your dh or he's your first baseman poor starting pitching oh every ground ball to the left side hold on to your butts yeah uh but yeah somebody like burger maybe it's somebody who you know first base or third maybe it's a second baseman who plays third base this year and then moves back to second yeah maybe it's brennan donovan right brennan donovan plays third for a year and then he goes over to second maybe it's tommy edmund maybe it's boba chap blah blah blah blah blah blah blah but yeah it's

Starting point is 00:24:25 probably i would say the guy the guy who's starting at third base on opening day this year almost certainly isn't starting that third base on opening day in 2026 sure yeah i think that's fair all right it is time to spend the wheel for our top five tuesday topics last week colby gave you his top five uh mariner's free agent targets and i gave you my top five mariners uniform so this week i'm going to be tackling the more serious quote unquote mariner's topic and then we'll see what colby gets but let's spend the wheel for mine lovely sound effects uh reasons for optimism you can't run from it reasons for optimism all right i'll be optimistic i mean it's a good thing that i got this topic and not um

Starting point is 00:25:20 excuse me i am mr optimism i don't know about i am very optimistic So like I feel like this is a wasted opportunity, but whatever. The wheel is spoken. All right. Now it is time to spend the wheel for Colby's topic. We got a lot more options on this wheel for the non-mariners silly wheel. I mean, there's some Mariners stuff on here. But if it's mariner's related, it's not very serious to say.

Starting point is 00:25:50 No whamies, no amy's. Stop. Ah, the top five Mariners nicknames. Awesome. List already done. there we go there we go i i can think of a few off the top of my head number one the bear all right so there you go we have our topics for tomorrow's episode be sure to tune in but for now that's going to do it for us before we get out of here a reminder that locked on has launched the first ever national

Starting point is 00:26:17 sports 24-7 streaming channel on youtube and now it's also available on amazon fire tv and the free fire tv channels app locked on sports today is here for you 24-7 covering the top sports stories of the with the local experts of locked on plus our national shows covering every league by locked on sports today now available on the free fire tv channels app thank you so much for joining us here on the locked on mirrors podcast for colby pat note i'm tiding giz alas be sure give us follow on twitter at l o underscore mirrors you'll follow me at tiding is allis and colby at c pat 11 that's cpat 1 1 1st you can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode have yourself a beautiful baseball day and we'll see you next time peace

Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Are the Mariners Gearing Up For Run at Japanese Star in 2026?!

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