Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Are the Mariners the Second-Best Team in the American League?

Episode Date: August 19, 2022

The Mariners head to Oakland for a three-game set with the A's starting Friday and will see left-handed pitcher Cole Irvin, whom Seattle fared incredibly well against after Irvin trash-talked the team last season, in the series opener. Ty and Colby discuss what expectations should be for the series, if the Mariners are the second-best team in the American League and break down prospects 5-1 in the Mariners' farm system.Be sure to follow or subscribe to Locked On Mariners wherever you prefer your podcasts! For questions and other inquiries, email: [e-mail] up to date with all things Mariners at Inside the Mariners - a FanNation website covering the Seattle Mariners on the Sports Illustrated network.Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @danegnzlz | @CPat11 | @InsideMarinersFor more of Ty and Colby, check out their Patreon: patreon.com/controlthezone/Liver Health FormulaNow it’s easy to rejuvenate your liver health and reignite your metabolism...Thanks to Liver Health Formula by PureHealth Research. Go to getliverhelp.com/MLB to learn more.BetOnlineBetOnline.net has you covered this season with more props, odds and lines than ever before. BetOnline – Where The Game Starts! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

To Oakland, the Mariners go as they kick off the third and final series of their nine game road trip. We'll get you covered on all you need to know there. And also wrap up Colby's top 30 rankings of the Mariners Farm System with prospects five through one on today's episode of Locked on M's. Colby, hit it. You are Locked on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. What's up, everyone?

Welcome to the Lockdown Mariner's podcast. Brought to you by Bet Online. Bet Online has you covered all season long with more props, odds, and lines than ever before. Bet Online is where the game starts. It is Friday, August 19th, 2020, and thank you so much for making us your first. Listen of the day, we are free and available on all platforms with new episodes dropping every Monday through Friday. I'm your host, Tiding Gonzalez, joined as always by my co-host Colby Patnode. We cover The Mariners over at inside the mariners.com for Fan Nation over on the Sports Illustrated network.

Be sure to follow the show on Twitter at L0 underscore Mariners. Follow Inside the Mariners. You can follow me at Dane Gonzalez, this D-A-N-E, G-N-Z-L-Z, and Colby at C-P-E-P-A-T-E-L-E. Be sure also check out our Patreon over at patreon.com forward-slash Control the Zone. Post two additional podcasts on there every single week. Again, that is patreon.com forward slash control the zone. And if this is your first time joining us here on the Lockdown Mariners podcast, welcome to the show. If you like what you hear, give us a follow or subscribe wherever you're listening to this.

And if you're watching us on YouTube, hit the subscribe button, turn on the notification bell and give this video a thumbs up. We greatly appreciate it. So, as I mentioned in the cold open, we're going to be covering Colby's prospects five through one in the Mariners Farm system later on in the show. We're also going to look at the Mariners playoff odds, the updated playoff odds that have come from fan graphs that favor the Mariners quite highly. And we're going to talk about where the Mariners fit overall in the hierarchy of the American League later on in the show as well. But first, before we get into our leading topic here, I actually want to give a quick question. shout out and we're not sponsoring anything, but I just thought this was cool. I was tagged in this and I had a chance to listen to it for a few minutes. A comedian, Seattle native comedian and

podcast host, Adam Ray was able to get Jerry DePoto on his show on the About Last Night podcast, which is free. Yeah, you can get it on Apple. You can get it on Spotify, etc. I was able to listen to it on Apple. And he was able to talk to Jerry for a little over an hour. And Jerry speaks very candidly about it and doesn't just, you know, talk about baseball. He does talk about the Mariners. He does talk about his relationship with Scott Service. There's a lot of cool stuff in there. So if you like here in Jerry Depoto talk, if you like how transparent Jerry Depoto has been in his tenure as Mariners general manager and now president of baseball operations, you get a lot of it in this podcast.

I would highly recommend checking it out if you're a Mariners fan. So happy Cole Urban Day to those who celebrate. right let's remind our listeners colby who cole irvin is if anyone has forgotten cole irvin after his first start against the mariners a's lefty by the way cole irvin uh had uh you know he gave up i believe four runs five runs to the mariners and um said after the game you know it's just it's inexcusable to to give up that many runs to a team like that to an offense like that and of course that i rubbed the Mariners the wrong way. Kyle Seeger responded in the best way possible with, I don't even know who that is in reference to Cole Irvin when he was asked about Cole Irvin. And then Cole Irvin proceeded to go on for five games, five starts against the Mariners

last year, posted an eight, six, nine ERA. He gave up 19 earn runs and 19 and two thirds innings pitch. But this is the first time the Mariners are going to see Cole this season, despite playing the A's a few times this year. So we'll get some. see if last year's success carries over to this year but cole iran has been pretty good this year three one three year a he's been worth 1.6 a four it's had a good year so it's going to be a pretty difficult matchup for the mariners who have struggled against lefties particularly crafty

lefties like cole arvin he is a solid pitcher don't get me wrong but what happened last year was incredibly funny and colby i think this game goes one of two ways tonight either the mariners just destroy him again or they get like no head. I don't think there's any in between. Yeah, you know, and it's a, it's a crafty, lefty type of thing here. And the Mariners lately, that's kind of in there, Achilles heel. So we'll see which way it goes. Ty France should be back in the lineup, got the two days off in a row.

I hope that helps. You know, they're going to stack the righties in there. Irvin's a change-up guy, if I'm remembering correctly, cutter change-up type of guy. So, you know, it may not actually be best to stack as many Rydies. I haven't seen the splits. But I know he's pitching about as well as he did last year. It just, he hasn't faced the Mariners to, you know, pump those numbers up a little bit.

Because if you remove what the Mariners did from him last year, he was pretty good. So we'll see if they can repeat that. But, yeah, it's, my guess, there's no Kyle Seeger, right? There's really, like, honestly, there's not a lot of, like, holdovers from last year. years group in regards to urban there's jp tithe france mitch hanniger i guess like that's really yeah um everybody else is new or was in the minors or really wasn't a big part of that so uh yeah i don't there's it's probably just business as usual but i it would be pretty funny of you know the mares put up another 10 hits on him and he went four and a third and gave up five earned and

you know i don't i don't know Mitch afterwards like like, oh, were we facing that? Is that the same guy? Oh, okay. Cool. Yeah, I'm pretty sure he never finished high, like with more than four innings pitched in a single game in his marriage last year. I think his high was four and two thirds.

Yeah. And it was like, hey, look, you got through two innings like clean. And then like in the third inning he gave up two. And then in the fourth he gave up like one. And then in the fifth before he, before they took him out, he gave up like another two or something like that. Or just like. Yeah.

So, yeah, we'll see. I doubt that's a thing anymore. that clubhouse but you know it's we'll see we'll see how it goes maybe the clubhouse doesn't care but you and i colby we don't forget oh and mariners fans do not absolutely not absolutely not twitter will be amazing if irving gives up five or five or six runs in like four innings oh but remember guys let's not at him because we're not you know what's a nice word for this neanderthals thank you yes you don't at professional athletes when they struggle.

Don't be that person. But also make fun of that, make fun of that athlete on Twitter without, without, you know, tagging him. So, yeah, yeah. Have fun with it. And, you know, if they get, if they get no hit over six or something like that,

I can't say I would be surprised, to be honest with you. So we'll see which way it goes, but I think you're right. I think it's either or. Like, it seems unlikely that he's going to go like six and two thirds and give up like three. And it's going to be like a three to two game when he leaves.

maybe it is but it feels like he's either going to shove or the Mariners are going to knock him out before the fifth So the A is heading into the series Second worst team in baseball record wise Behind the Washington Nationals And of course the Mariners also have the nationals

Coming up here pretty quick Do the Mariners have to sweep here Is it kind of a similar situation to what we talked about You know week and a half ago With the Angel series at home Is it like is it unacceptable if you only take two? Is it unacceptable if you only take one? No.

What are the expectations here going into the series? Oakland is bad, but they're scrappy. So it's one of those things where it's like, look, I expect all these games to be relatively close. It also doesn't help that the Mariners are throwing, you know, Logan Gilbert and Marco in this series. Now, by the way, keep in mind here, Jed Lauer. Lowry is no longer a member of the A's. He can no longer hurt you. Elvis Andrews is no longer a member of the A's.

He can no longer hurt you. Well, we'll still see him at the end of the month or next month against the White Sox. But yeah, it's, he'll probably hit a couple home runs. But don't worry, Tony Kemp will step up and he will, he will fill that, that role. So no need to worry. I'm sure Luriano will hit a couple home runs too or something. I expect these games to be close. They're scrappy.

They're bad, but they're scrappy. They're scrappy. you just go down there, try to win a series, ballpark's going to be empty, like completely empty. So it's, I mean, they're legitimately, it might be 2,500 people there. So you kind of have to create your own energy. But if you're in the playoff hunt like Seattle is and you can't create your own juice, that's that's kind of a problem. So I'm sure they'll figure a way out of it.

But you just got to just keep winning series. That's all you have to do. If you win 60, I mean, 66%, technically, if you win every series, but if you win six, but if you win 60% of your games from here on out, you're in the playoffs. Like, it's that simple. So find a way to take two of three here. You really want to take the two against the nationals before Cleveland comes into town for four really big ones. So I think the goal here is to find a way to go four and two before Cleveland.

Sorry, what would that be at least three and two in this little stretch? But I think four and one is kind of what you should be shooting for before Cleveland comes into town. Yes, but like you said, the Mariners are in a good spot. Just got to keep on winning games, keep on winning series. And the playoff odds from fan graphs are looking favorably upon the Mariners. We're going to be getting more into that in just a moment. But real quick, a reminder of this episode of Lockdown Mariners is brought to you by liver health formula. Did you know the key to sustainable weight loss is through your liver?

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Go to get liverhelp.com slash MLB now to get started. You're listening to the Lockdown Mariners podcast. Thank you again for making us your first listen to the day, just like you do here every single day. We greatly appreciate your support and for tuning into us and listening to us. Ramble on about this crazy, wacky team we call the Seattle Mariners, who right now are sporting a nine. 91.9% chance of making the postseason for the first time and 20 years per fan graphs.

Right behind the Houston Astros who Colby, I think, are definitively the best team in the American League. And then the Yankees who are kind of skidding right now. They're going through it pretty hard right now. And just got blown out by the Blue Jays last night. Frankie Monta started that game. He was awful. he's been awful in pinstripes. Could have had Luis Castillo, but hey, you know, we can get Frankie Montes.

I saw a lot of Yankees fans saying, oh, Frankie Montes is better anyway. We wanted Frankie Montes instead this whole time. Did you really, though? Did you really though? We got a much better deal than the Mariners did. So, yeah, yeah, right? So you and I were talking off air before we hit record on this. And you said to me, are we should?

sure the Mariners are the third best team in the American League? Are we sure they're not the second best team in the American League? Because right now, the Yankees have been bad relative to expectations, right? They've still been in a well above 500 teams since May, I believe.

But the Orioles have the best record in the ALE since like May 18th or something I saw last night. The Yankees, I think, have the third best record in the division in that time. And I think they're all over 500. So the East is just really good. But yeah, the Yankees since the All-Star break, I think they have like a 425

win percentage or something like that. So we're going on about a month here of the Yankees being straight up bad, not relative to anything else, just bad in general. So now they're going to get Stanton back. They might have already done that. I think it's it's fair to expect the Yankees to turn this around to some degree. They're way too talented to play like this for the rest of the year. But, I mean, they just dropped two series to the Mariners who didn't have their best player for either of them and didn't have their second best player and their third best player for the first three games. And they still found a way to win those series. They beat Garrett Cole twice. And granted, they had to throw Luis Castillo to do it, but they did. You know, so you kind of look at it and

you go, like the Yankees are more talented. Sure. We sure they're better? because the Mariners have kind of, you know, they haven't won 14 in a row again or anything like that. But, you know, they're having another good month of August. They're just quietly, you know, I think they have the, I think they have the best record in baseball since June 2nd, July 2nd and August 2nd. So it's just one of those things where like the Mariners, even when they struggle a little bit, like they lose a series in Texas. Well, they bounce right back. They sweep the angels. No problem.

The Yankees haven't found a way to claw themselves out of them. of this. And there was the thought that, well, maybe the big win against the rays is a huge come from behind victory and extra innings against the race. That'll galvanize him. Nope. Because Frankie Montes, there's no way that dude's healthy. He is way too good to be throwing up what he's throwing right now. So, but then again, you know, sometimes guys can't handle New York. They don't handle it well. Look at Joe Gallo. Look at Sunny Gray. Joe Gallo, who's been really good in LA, by the way. Of course he has. Of course he has. I feel so bad. So predictable, right? So predictable.

Of course it is because Dodger fans aren't psychopaths. Yankee fans are all psychopaths. When he got traded, when he got traded, you know, a lot of folks were surprised that he went to another high pressure situation like L.A. And they felt like, oh, he's not going to do well. No, just get him out of New York. He just wanted. That's all that's all he wanted. And now he's in L.A.

And he's been great so far. He's been Joey Gallo, right? Of course he is. So, yeah, it's one of those things. Some guys just don't handle New York well. I don't want to say that's Montes because I still think Montes is a little bit hurt. I don't think he's 100%.

But we'll see. I think, you know, right now, if you're a Mariner fan, based on where things stand today, a month from now, this could be a completely different conversation. But are you going into a series in Yankee Stadium, a five-game series in Yankee Stadium,

going, I don't know, we can take these guys in a best of five. No, of course you're not saying that. Because you already have. So, and they're not playing well. yeah, it's, like I still think the Yankees are better than the Mariners. I still think the Yankees are a legitimate World Series contender. I think they got better at the deadline, although I for the life of- Jordan Montgomery has been great. I can't figure out that trade. I can't

figure out that. I keep looking for it like, well, like, what is, why? Like, did they just not have room for Montgomery in the rotation? No, then totally fine. They would have been able to, easy. And so, like, did they really need a center? Like, is, is, is, he an upgrade from like Aaron Hicks? No, not really. Like what was the point of that? So I don't really get it. They got better in the bullpen, but they gave up quite a few assets and those assets. But also with the bullpen, right? Like Clay Holmes has regressed. I think Michael King's regressed a little bit. Yep. Yep. Yeah. Chapman started to figure things out, but then he had a disastrous outing against the raise on, what was that, Wednesday? So yeah, the bullpen is,

F. Ross hasn't been great since he's come over. So, yeah, I mean, obviously, Montes has struggled. So the Yankees added a lot. I don't think Benettony's having an amazing time in New York either. So the Yankees added a lot of players, just none of them are producing. So did they get worse at the deadline? I mean, on paper, no. But it doesn't seem to have helped much.

So we'll see. But, yeah, I don't think you can say the Mariners are the second best team in the American. I still think the Yankees are better. but I think at least right now you can have a conversation about it and you have to have a conference if somebody asks you that you have to be like no but

I think the conclusion that we can ultimately reach here though is that the Mariners have closed the gap or that the gap in general has closed maybe the Mariners haven't just done it themselves right also the Yankees struggles are contributing to that but I think the gap has closed between those two teams quite a big

sure and it's also worth pointing out though that the Yankees are playing a pretty brutal stretch of their schedule right now the Mariners are entering the easiest. Well, so that's the other thing too, right? It's like it's kind of a flip-flop of schedules here for the Yankees and the Mariners. The Yankees started out with a really easy schedule and just beat up on all those teams. But now they're hitting the point that the Mariners hit at the beginning of their schedule,

where it's, you know, it's just all these really good teams one after the other. I mean, you know, the Yankees have played the Mariners. They played the Blue Jays. They played the raise a bunch over the last, you know, three weeks or so. And so, you know, that's brutal. That'll do a lot of things, you know, a lot of negative things to any team, really. You know, when you just, when you consistently go up against that kind of talent every single night. I mean, we saw what it did to the Mariners.

A good Mariners team, a team that went on to, you know, do what it's done now. That's had that talent kind of sitting there. And obviously, you know, not everything came together for the Mariners at the beginning of the year. But this, you know, this is still, I mean, that was still the same team that we're seeing now in a way, right? Like, it's still the same players. It's still, you know, the same group in general. So, yeah. I just, Ty, let me ask you.

On a scale of like one to 10, with 10 being like, like, just as shocked as you could be, how shocked would you be if the Mariners finish the regular season with a better record than the Yankees? Right now, they're eight games back. So 10 being like super shocked? Yeah, like 10's the top of the scale. Like eight, eight and a half? Yeah, yeah, that's about where I am. Seven and a half, eight somewhere in that range. Yeah.

Like I said, I think the Yankees will figure this out. And if you're a Mariner fan, you need to root for them to figure it out because they play Toronto a lot. They play Tampa a lot. They play Baltimore a lot. I think they even have a series left with Cleveland and Chicago, if I'm remembering correctly. So yeah, you want the. Yankees to be good because they're going to do a lot of the heavy lifting for you as you, as you try to, you know, make good on your 91%, 92% playoff odds, whatever they are.

But yeah, you look at the standings right now, mirrors are in really good shape. So schedule favors them. The off days favor them. It's everything's looking good. They don't have to, you know, the east is going to beat up on each other. The central, those three teams, they're going to beat up on each other. The Central is going to get to play Kansas City in Detroit. Okay.

You're going to get seven against Detroit yourself, though. And you got three more against Kansas City. So we'll see how it goes. We'll see. But the Mariners are in really good shape. And you can see how the 90%, whatever, 92%, how they come to those odds. Because, yeah, I think if you play the rest of the season over 100 times, the Mariners probably do make the playoffs about 90 times.

They're just in everything just seems to be favor. their endeavor right now, but they still have to earn it. It's not going to be handed to them. So they have to go out and they have to play well, including against these bad teams. They have to beat teams they should. They have to find a way to kind of survive the few rough patches they have left in their schedule. And it's very few. But hey, you know, like if they, if they go out, they take three or four from Cleveland,

you know, after going four and one against these two teams right here. I struggle to say it's a rap, but It's the Vince Carter. It's over. Yeah, barring an epic collapse, which I think Mariner fans, some Mariner fans out there are sitting there waiting for anyway. Yeah, no,

there's definitely people like reading up in the YouTube comments right now listening to us and saying, well, it's the Mariners. Or, well, you just jinx them. Because your,

your magical words are somehow going to force the Mariners to lose 10 straight. If the Mariners lose 10 straight at any point in the rest of their schedule, that's on them. Because their schedule is pretty good. So we'll see how it goes. You never know. They might go one in six against Detroit again. Weird stuff happens, but they're in a really good spot right now.

Yeah, absolutely. All right. Let's switch gears and wrap up your top 30 prospects in the Mariners farm system in just a moment. But real quick, a reminder of this episode of Lockdown Mariners is brought to you by BetOnline. Betonline.net is the fastest and easiest way. to check in on all your betting needs. Find all your favorite sports and events at the number one online source for odds, lines, and games. Find reviews and news of every league, including Major League Baseball, NFL, NBA, NHL, Combat Sports,

e-sports, and even golf. Bet Online continues to be the top online resource for all your sports wagering information from live in-game betting, scores, and podcasts. They have you covered. Head to bet online today or use your mobile device to learn more about the trends and action. And that online is where the game starts. So we are finally wrapping up prospect weeks, plural weeks. Because again, unfortunately, we got kind of sidetracked on a couple of episodes and it delayed things.

But we are finally wrapping up your top 30 prospect list with your top five. So let's get into it. Your top five, you know, obviously process of elimination. If anyone's been following your list. intently, the two people that have been following your list intently, probably know which five we're going to show up in this five through one. But this is the order that you have them in. We have them on the screen.

But if you're only listening on one of your preferred podcast platforms, number five is Gabriel Gonzalez, the 18-year-old outfielder currently in Luey Modesto. Cole Young, the Mariners first round draft pick this year, 19-year-old infielder currently in the Arizona Complex League, Bryce Miller right-handed pitcher was a draft pick of the Mariners last year, and he's quickly risen or risen through the ranks, and he's been fantastic this year.

Emerson Hancock, obviously healthy now, and he's having a really solid year, and then Harry Ford coming in at number one, the Mariners' first round draft pick from last year. Let's start with Gabriel Gonzalez, who's now stateside. Loe-Madesto, he's having a good year. Tell me about Gabriel Gonzalez. Why does he come in at number five for you?

Yeah, he's a pretty interesting dude just because he's, he's pretty solidly built. He's about 5-11, 6-foot. You know, I think he's listed at like 190 pounds, something like that. But I think he's a solid, you know, 210. So he's built pretty well. He actually, but despite that, or maybe because of it, he's, you know, he's a very good runner. I wouldn't say he's plus or anything there, but it's above average run. it is a it's an above it's an above average throwing arm it's between a 50 and a 55 I would say on the 2080 scale

but again like most prospects on this list it all comes down to the hit tool can he hit because if you can't hit you're not going to make it to the big leagues pretty short swing it's a lot of line drives right now it's average power I think I think he's going to add more I believe that there's more power here so I think it's probably a 55 tool So I think what you're looking at here is you're looking at a guy who I think I think he's probably going to hit 250, 25, 30 home runs. I don't know how many bases he's going to steal. That's more of a feel thing. But he's got good wheels, good arm, pretty good defender.

I think in a corner spot, he should be fine there. So I think the overall package of tools here presents a guy who might have 55 tools when all of a sudden done. So while he's not as, you know, loud as guys like Montes who have like 65 grade power or something like that, just the overall package of tools gives him a chance. And it's, I guess there's not, I guess there's a non-zero chance he can play center field. But to me, he kind of profiles more as a left fielder and kind of what we think a healthy Kyle Lewis would look like. So just the overall package of tools is something that is pretty rare in the system right now. And he's, he's having a nice year. All right. So Cole Young, 19-year-old infieler, a little bit older for a prep prospect that was drafted in the first round.

But, you know, there's obviously been the comps to Adam Fraser, et cetera. What do you like Cole Young? Why does he come in at number four on your list? Yeah, he's Corey Seeger. Yeah, that's his favorite player. Yeah, Young is a guy who the Mariners are really confident in can hit and will hit. his way to the big leagues. He's also a guy who can stick at shortstop. He doesn't have to move off of short. He's fine there. He'd be about average. It's just he might get more value moving him to second because the defense should tick up. Second base is a little bit easier than shortstop.

So it's probably what you're looking at is an above average second baseman defensively, a guy who's going to hit, you know, make a lot of contact, hit for average. There's a little more power there than I think people are giving him credit for. He's a smart hitter. It's very advanced for a 19 year old. So the Adam Fraser comp actually makes a lot of sense.

I think there's a chance. He adds power similar to the way that Kyle Seeger added power. You remember when Segar was drafted, he was a utility guy, slapped the ball around, hopefully a 260, maybe 15 home runs, and then Seeger turned himself into a 25, 30 home run guy, basically

by becoming a dead pull hitter. I don't think that Cole Young has to do that. I don't think he's going to get to 30 home runs. But I think he's going to play second base. I think he's going to hit 15 home runs. I think he's probably going to steal 15 bags or so. Wouldn't be too surprised if he hits, you know, if he settles in in the 260, 270 range.

But if you can do that, it also means you might have a couple 300 seasons in there for you. Honestly, you know, there's some J.P. Crawford here. Both guys came out of high school. Both guys, you know, thought to be above average with the gloves. of hit tool right now is there's you hope power develops, but mostly it's just line drives. Young is a really interesting guy who like I said, can play shortstop. It's not a matter that like, well, he's not really a shortstop.

You can play. You can play shortstop if you need him to. But I think ultimately he settles in a second base as kind of a top of the order line drive on base percentage guy with some pop and some stolen base ability. So I do like the Adam Fraser comp. And I know a lot of Mariners fans are like, why would you spend? been a first round pick on Adam Frazier. If every first round pick you ever made turned into Adam Frazier, you are elite at drafting.

Adam Frazier is a good player. He is. Bryce Miller. Number three. This might be a little controversial because I don't think I've ever seen Bryce Miller this high on anyone's list. But I get it because I love Bryce Miller. He's rising through the ranks fast.

Like I said, and there's a lot of really interesting tools. And there's a non-zero chance. he reaches the major league level next year. Maybe even as a starter? Yeah, I think so. It's interesting. He's 6 foot 2. He's about a buck 90.

So he's a little light for the frame. You'd like him to be closer to 210. And it's not like the effort is like smooth and like there's some effort. There's already some effort in the delivery. So. But what's interesting about that, those two factors kind of led people to that and his control in college, led people to believe that he's definitely a reliever.

that's not the case because despite all that he's throwing plenty of strikes and he's not losing velocity as he gets deeper into outings he's still mostly you know 90s still mostly 94 to 96 he's been up to 99 slider is already an above average offering you know the change up actually looks like a legitimate third pitch and right now he's getting insane value out of the fastball because it's 55 command on the fastball, 60 control. The off speed pitches are a little bit behind in the control command department as is expected. So despite all the red flags that say, yeah, he's probably a reliever.

He's been great as a starter. He doesn't have any issue. There's no, you know, he hasn't lost command as he gets later and starts. He hasn't lost velocity. He's maintained it. So this is a guy who, you know, despite frame and delivery worries, is making it work. So, and because he's done that at such a high level. level.

You know, he got promoted to double A recently. He's pitching very well. I would expect Bryce Miller to make his debut at some point next year. It might be as a reliever just out of, you know, necessity. Yeah. Because the Mariners rotation is already pretty good. But this guy is, I, he is, he could be a number, a number three starter, like a really good. I think one, one starter that I've seen comp to him.

by might have been Doyle, I'm not sure. But this might explain why I like him so much, Ty, because you know how much I like this player. Garrett Richards is a guy, like Angels, Garrett Richards back in the day. Yeah, Angels, Gary Richards, not Padres, Garrett Richards, or Red Sox, Gary Richards, ooh.

Or Rangers, Gary Richards, no. The good one before the Angels ruined him. So, yeah, I really like this arm. And honestly, I thought about putting him at number two, just because I think his upside might be a little bit higher than Hancock's right now. All right. So let's talk about Emerson Hancock. He's finally healthy. He's pitching well down in AA Arkansas. He's still number two, or he's now number two on your list. You know, he's staying

kind of in that range because of the graduations that have happened in the Mariners Farm. So now he comes up to number two. What has Emerson Hancock done this year to keep him at the top of your list? Well, first he stayed healthy, right? And that's kind of the big one. He's going to get his is exactly the workload that the Mariners wanted him to get. He's going to get that this year. You know, there's still some things to work on. The fastball, it's good velocity, but it's, there's not a lot of life to it. There's not a high spin, so he's got to be very consistent with that fastball command to get value out of it.

But, again, the big thing here is he started the year out with, I think it was a shoulder issue. He didn't make his debut until May 17th, but since then, he's made, every one of his scheduled starts. He's been pretty darn good in AA Arkansas. We've seen him kind of get a little bit better. He's the last few times out have been the best starts of the year for him. So he's building momentum. It's, you know, again, the stuff, not quite where it was at Georgia.

It's not uncommon coming off of a couple of shoulder issues. And obviously the COVID year kind of wrecked his development for that year. But this was kind of starting to build into a ground. ball like 8K per nine heavy ground ball type of arm because the change up is it's exceptional it's probably his best pitch right now um so it's it's a fastball it's a fastball velocity not a ton of run not a ton of life but again it's it's good velocity so if he spots it well it should be a good pitch for him it's a good change up that's one of the best in the system right now gets a ton of ground balls with that. The slider, it's, that's kind of the pitch that's holding him back

right now from really reaching the ceiling. He needs that slider to be that top of the rotation guy that we were hoping he is, but he can, I think he can get there. Again, it's, I know he's an older player, but he's really an inexperienced player still. So it's a little bit of a weird gap there. But again, 94 to 96, up to 98 on occasion. He really can play at the top of the zone with that. The change-up is his best pitch. It's a legitimate plus change-up. So if the slider becomes a 50-grade, 55-grade, and he can command it pretty well, you can still get to that number two, number three type of ceiling.

I think one of the guys that is kind of a decent comp, as odd as it sounds, there is a little Garrett-Ritchards here, but it is kind of that like 8K per 9, you know, 48 to 52% ground ball rate. maybe somebody like Kyle Gibson is another type of guy that this guy reminds me of. So Hancock to me, I don't know if he's going to reach his ceiling when he was drafted, which was, you know,

an ace just because the fastball hasn't really, they haven't gotten value out of that and the slider is kind of taking a step back. But the overall package of throwing strikes and the change up to play off with the basketball, I think he's at worst, a really good number four starter. All right. Lastly, on your list coming in on number one, their first round draft pick from last year, and you had called it, Harry Ford, 19-year-old catcher down on low-a-modesto,

and he got off to a slow start this year, but he's started to figure it out. And he stays at number one. Why did Harry Forrest stay at number one on your list? Right. Well, I mean, he's no Hogan Winddish, but he's still a pretty good prospect. That's true. That's true. Yeah.

So Harry Ford is a guy. He's a 19-year-old who's already in A-ball. performing pretty well since, oh, since what, June 1, something around that time. Again, it's going to take him a little while because it looks like the Mariners plan on keeping him a catcher, and that's fine because he is a legitimately good catcher. They don't need to move him off of that spot. And it's not like the bat has really forced their hand quite yet. If he was raking, they might have moved him to second base or center field already.

But this is, you know, the best athlete in the system. He can play pretty much anywhere. he could handle shortstop if you asked him to. But he's going to stick up the middle, whether that's in center field or catcher, probably catcher. He's a plus runner, plus raw power, plus defender behind the plate, average behind the plate right now, plus upside, strong arm, like he's just a freak athlete. He really is. So I think second base center field possible still, but he looks like he's going to have no issue playing catcher.

he's going to be one of the most athletic catchers when he gets to the big leagues line drives for days exit velocity guys love this dude pretty good feel for the strike zone he's just overall a great player with you know insane upside and it looks like there's a really good chance he's going to do it while playing you know the most difficult position in baseball at least for a few years it's going to take him a little while to get there don't don't mistake i'm not saying he's going to be ready at 21 years old but the upside here is, you know,

sky's the limit. I know a lot of people comped him to like Craig Vizio because he's a catcher who might play center, who might play second, and that he's going to hit. And hey,

if he's Vizio, that's great. I mean, that's amazing. That's a whole favor. But I think, honestly, for like a more like modern comp,

Russell Martin, right? Pretty good catcher. Pretty good hitter. Had a couple really good years with Toronto. Very solid. Even played the infield pretty well when he wasn't catching. So I think that's what we're looking at here.

I am all in on Harry Ford. I think before the Arroyo trade and the O'LVu trade, Ford would have still been in the discussion for number one. I think I originally had Arroyo ahead of him, but I think I had him ahead of Marte. So I'm still big on Harry Ford, and I think he'll probably finish next year in AA, if I had to guess. And if they move him off a catcher, which I don't think they're going to,

but if they decide to make that move and just focus solely on the bat, non-zero chance he could break into the big leagues sometime in May or June of 2024. Yeah, yeah, at that point, like if you see like, oh, they're playing him at second, they're playing them in short, or in center field,

or what have you, in a corner, doesn't matter, then it's like, oh, okay, it's go time, it's happening, yeah. So we'll see how that goes, but I think right now they don't need to push it. They can give him all the time that he needs to figure it out behind the, behind the backstop so we'll see uh but all right so that's going to do it for our show today

and that's going to do it for our week's slate of episodes and we had a really fun week here on the locked on areas podcast thank you again to jordan schusterman of uh fox sports MLB and suspitas family bbke and ryan divish of the seattle times for joining us earlier this week if you haven't watched those episodes or listen to those interviews uh be sure to check them out they're on our youtube right now or wherever you're listening to our show. Every podcast platform has our show. So you can find it anywhere you want to. So for Colby Pat node, I'm Tadang Gonzalez.

Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L-O-N-Hourner-N-Rer-N-Rer-E. You can follow me at Dane Gonzalez, and E-N-Z-L-E and Colby at C-P-E-E-T-E-L-E. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. And thank you again for making us your first listen of the day. Now make your second list in the Locked-on MLB podcast. MLB expert, Paul Francis Sullivan, brings humor, passion, and unique perspective on every team,

and the biggest stories around the league. Follow the number one daily league-wide podcast, Locked-on MLB on the Odyssey app, YouTube, and wherever you get your podcast just like us. And with that, have yourself a beautiful baseball weekend. We'll see you on Monday. Peace.