Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - As Resolution Nears, Will Mariners Walk Away With Juan Soto?
Episode Date: July 29, 2022Some resolution on the Juan Soto situation appears to be nearing as the Nationals continue to field offers, including from the Mariners. Hosts Ty Dane Gonzalez and Colby Patnode assess the latest rumo...rs linking Seattle to Soto, the possibility of trading for Shohei Ohtani and what went wrong during the team's 4-2 loss to the Astros on Thursday night.Be sure to follow or subscribe to Locked On Mariners wherever you prefer your podcasts! For questions and other inquiries, email: lockedonmariners@gmail.comStay up to date with all things Mariners at Inside the Mariners - a FanNation website covering the Seattle Mariners on the Sports Illustrated network.Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @danegnzlz | @CPat11 | @InsideMarinersFor more of Ty and Colby, check out their Patreon: patreon.com/controlthezone/LinkedInLinkedIn Jobs helps you find the candidates you want to talk to, faster. Did you know every week, nearly 40 million job seekers visit LinkedIn? Post your job for free at LinkedIn.com/LOCKEDONMLB.BetOnlineBetOnline.net has you covered this season with more props, odds and lines than ever before. BetOnline – Where The Game Starts! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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Discussion (0)
It looks like we're getting close to a resolution on one Soto and some reports have the Mariners right in the thick of things.
We'll get you caught up on all you need to know there.
Look at the possibility of trading for show Hey, Otani and go over Logan Gilbert's start down in Houston last night on today's episode of Locked on Mariners.
Colby, hit it.
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So let's get into today's show
We of course have a lot of Juan Soto things to talk about
We'll get into that in just a moment
Show Hey Otani might also be on the move potentially
And of course fans, Mariners fans specifically
Of obviously won Otani in Seattle
So we got to talk about it
And then we are all the other.
also going to look at last night's unfortunate 4 to 2 loss to the houston astros down in
houston uh we'll go over logan gilbert start and just generally what went wrong down in houston
at the end of this show but first let's get into juan soto who has been the subject of
many many more reports over the last couple days and the mariners are apparently right in the
thick of things at least according to bob nightingale of usa today who as we all
know is not the most trustworthy reporter in Major League Baseball.
However, he has said on multiple occasions that he believes that Soto will either go to the Padres
or the Mariners and then today tweeted that he believes there are four finalists that have
made aggressive offers on Soto.
And that includes the Mariners, the Padres, the Cardinals, and the Dodgers.
And now, I'll just say this.
I don't trust Nightingale.
I don't think you should either.
He has proven time and time again not to be trusted with certain things, especially with breaking news.
And typically when he does get things right, it's after someone else has already reported it.
So I mean, like he got the lockout stuff right sometimes here and there.
But that's about it.
That's all I can really remember Bob Nightingale actually accurately reporting first.
Both Bob Nightingale and John Heyman are shills for me.
Major League Baseball.
So like, if Major League Baseball is like, oh, they are announcing this, then you can believe
them.
But if it's the Seattle Mariner stuff, no.
Heyman's usually pretty good with the New York teams as well.
But other than that, no.
So.
Yeah.
Yeah.
So now, that being said, I'm not surprised if, I wouldn't be surprised if the Mariners had
put in an offer.
Honestly, I kind of expected it.
And they can put in an offer that is, you know, that could be seen as.
pretty aggressive that doesn't include
George Kirby or Logan Gilbert and I think
that's probably what has happened here.
I think the Mariners do have an offer in on
Wonsetto. I just don't think that it includes
Logan Gilbert or George Kirby and I think
they've told the Nationals, you know, take it or leave it.
This is our price. This is what we would pay
for Wonsetto and if he want it, you can have it.
And if you don't, okay, we're going to move on.
And that's it. And I think that's where we're at right now.
I don't think that they're likely to get him,
especially without Gilbert or Kirby.
We've said this time and time again on the show
over the last couple of weeks since it became pretty apparent that Soto is going to be on the move.
Now, Hector Gomez of ESPN has also reported that the nationals are planning to offer Soto one final contract extension.
And at that point, if he doesn't take it, they are going to trade him, which to me maybe indicates that they do have a deal on the table, an offer on the table from some team that they really like that they are prepared to take.
But they would like to extend Soto.
and I think at this point, considering everything that's happened,
all the reports that have come out about how the relationship is strained between the two sides,
I don't think there's anything that the nationals can offer Wansoto at this point that he would take.
So I think Wandsoto is going to be on a different team in the next few days.
I just don't think that's the Mariners.
Colby, have your thoughts changed whatsoever?
No.
The Wansoto stuff, I'm so tired of talking about this.
I do believe that the Mariners have made.
an offer on Juan Soto.
I do believe that
their offer would be considered
a serious one.
I don't believe
that it is going to be anywhere
close to beating what
apparently the Padres are willing to
pay, which includes
guys like McKinsey
Gore and
Adrian Morajon. Is that right?
Yeah, and CJ Abrams.
C.J. Right. So three
like major league contributors right
way on top of like Robert Hassel and like Jackson Merrill like that's a really really aggressive
package honestly I still think that's too light for Juan Soto I'm just I'm just realizing I'm not a
big fan of the Padres farm system whatsoever or really their player development for that matter
but whatever it's it's a it's a good offer and if that report is true um I mean for the
Mariner's side of things, that's like George Kirby, Jared Kellnick,
I don't even know they have a C.J. Abrams comp.
You know, it's, and then we're talking about like Noel V. Marte, Harry Ford,
Emerson Hancock, like it's a haul. And so I don't see the Mariners doing that.
I think at this stage, the Mariners being one of the finalists is just there to apply pressure
to the other three teams. Because you look at it.
at it. The Dodgers make so much more sense. The Cardinals make so much more sense. The Padres
make so much more sense than the Mariners, just based on where those teams are right now in their
window, that it just kind of feels like the Mariners are the fourth team in a four-team race.
But I do believe that they did make an offer that is serious enough that the Padres can use
it or that the nationals can use it as leverage. So do I believe Nightingale? Yes and no. I think
the Mariners are in on it.
I don't think that they are negotiating is what I would say.
I think they've made the this is what we're doing.
Yes, no, whatever.
We're going to go work on other stuff.
And you know, you kind of couple that with Rosenthal's.
Was it Rosenthal Morosi?
Luis Castillo is their main objection.
They're looking at starting pitching.
That is what they are focusing on.
To me, that kind of reads as the Mariners made their offer.
They don't think they're going to win.
and they're moving on.
Because I think we can all agree that the Mariners cannot get Juan Soto and Luis Castillo.
They just,
they don't have that type of ammunition,
not to get them both at the same trade deadline.
So,
yeah,
I guess I partially believe him,
but I think,
I think he's missing some,
uh,
or ignoring some,
uh,
pretty big warning signs that tell you where the Mariners actually are in the
Juan Soto conversation.
Yeah.
I would also think that maybe it's a matter of time, right?
like they're maybe they have a deadline with the with the nationals as well it's like okay you know
accepted by Saturday accepted by Sunday or we're out like because we got to go do other stuff we
got to be able to to plan here and you know for for the for the pivot basically and so you know
again like you said it was rosenthal last night on fox sports before the fox sports broadcast
of the Mariners game that said uh you know louis castillo is their primary focus right now starting
pitching as their primary focus, which, I mean, that lines up with everything else that we've
heard from other reporters like Jeff Passen, you know, things that even Jerry DePoto himself
has said over the last couple weeks. That's what tracks the most is starting pitching.
That's why I think the Mariners are ultimately going to come away with here. If they end up
do, you know, making a big splash at the deadline, it's going to be for a starter. It's not going to be
for Juan Soto. I mean, I would like to be surprised. You know, I would love to be surprised. And hey,
here they got Juan Soto without giving up George Kirby or Logan Gilbert.
I mean, that would be amazing.
Juan Soto is incredible.
He's an incredible hitter.
You know, and so ultimately too, right?
Like I think the only way, though, that the Mariners get Soto out of these four teams is
if the nationals are just completely enamored with Edwin Arroyo or Noel V.
Martay or Jared Kellnick or Emerson Hancock, et cetera, like they have to get one of those guys.
If they feel like that's like the best piece out of all.
all the teams that are offering.
I mean,
maybe that helps the Mariners,
you know,
get Soto here,
but that we don't know.
Right.
There is kind of that rumor or whatever that Mike Rizzo,
who would be making this decision,
like the reason that Trey Turner and,
um,
and Max Scherzer were traded to the Dodgers and not the Padres last year,
is that Rizzo was fixated on acquiring Khybert Ruiz.
And once Ruiz became available in those trade talks,
it was done.
Like he had, that's the guy he wanted to get.
So he has a very specific focus.
So is it possible that Rizzo thinks that like Jared Kalnick and Edwin Arroyo are like the guys that he wants?
And if the Mariners have that package out there, then it doesn't matter what the, how good the rest of the package is.
Like that's, those are the guys he wants.
I suppose that's possible.
It just seems rather unlikely at this stage.
So I'm not expecting it.
But hey, you know, it's Jerry Depoto.
He does some unexpected things sometimes.
I just think that without Kirby, without Gilbert, the Mariners offer is dead in the water,
and I don't believe the Mariners have any interest in trading either of those guys at this point.
Well, speaking of star trades, Shohei Otani is now in the mix here.
His hat has been thrown into the ring, whether he or the angels want it to be.
And of course, Mariner fans are enamored with the idea of acquiring Shohei Otani.
I mean, who wouldn't be?
It's Shohei Otani, after all.
it's one of the greatest players to arguably ever live.
So let's talk about it.
Can the Mariners actually land Shohei Otani at the deadline?
I'll tell you in just a moment.
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So, Shohay Otani, one of the greatest players to ever live.
I mean, he's the modern day Babe Ruth.
He pitches, he hits at an all-star caliber level, at an MVP caliber level, at a Cy Young caliber level.
He's amazing.
He's incredible.
And he might be available.
And of course, back when he was a free agent, back when he could choose where he wanted to play,
Mariners were right there at the finish line, it seemed.
But he ended up spurning the Mariners for the Angels.
But now could this be the Mariners opportunity to fix history, more or less,
to actually add Shohei Otani to the mix to finish off what they set out to do in 2018
and land one of the greatest players of all time?
Or is this just baloney, Colby?
Well, first of all, any interest in Otani has to come with an admittance that he was dumb to pick the angels over Seattle in every conceivable way.
City, location, coaching staff, culture, ability to win, even though the Mariners started to rebuild immediately after Otani signed.
And those angels, they just kept on throwing money around.
And they will, I believe, for the sixth consecutive year, finish with a worst record than the Seattle Mariners.
so good job show hey great pick um but i'll say this i don't know of otani's getting traded in the next
four days i highly doubt he is actually but i do feel pretty confident saying that otani's done with
the angels like he's he's out um whether that's you know in the next four days whether that's over
the winter or the next deadline or next winter when he's a free agent um he was asked if he wanted to be an
angel, you know, now and in the future. And his answer was, right, it was, quote, I'm with the angels
right now and I'm very thankful for what they've done. I love my team and my teammates. Right now I'm an
angel. And that's all I can focus on. He's gone. He's out. He's done. He's done with the angel. And why
wouldn't he be? They said, it was a dumb decision. The 23-year-old made a dumb decision. We've all been,
and now he wants out. The problem is is that the angels,
are also dumb. And if the angels aren't going to hit the giant reset button,
they're going to be a 500 team, you know, ceiling. That's going to be their ceiling until they
decide to do it. Now, Artie Moreno is not going to let Otani walk. I think that's part of the issue.
He's going to basically force him to stay and play for the next year and change just almost out
of spite because Artie Moreno is a moron. And he's a really bad baseball guy. Well, he thinks he's a
baseball guy. He's not. Artie Moreno is Kevin Mather on steroids.
He's ill-equipped to make baseball decisions. And the only way the Angels can avoid like a lengthy
five to seven-year rebuild is to trade show Hey, Hottani, because they will get a haul for him
if they decide to do that and probably get a lot of young major league ready players in the
process. So should the mayors be interested in Otani? Yeah. Yeah. Every all 29 other team should
be interested in Otani.
That being said, there's only a handful that actually makes some sense for Otani.
And I do think Seattle is one of them.
They can afford him.
They would want him.
He makes sense for their roster build.
But hey, you know, let's, I'm sure we're going to dive into this a little bit.
But before we start talking about like costs and all that stuff, let's make a couple things clear here.
Number one, you cannot factor in a potential extension that is irrelevant to the trade talks.
You have to assume that you're getting Otani.
if you traded for him this this let's just say they trade him for him on sunday you have to assume that you
are getting him for two playoff runs that's it anything like oh well we'll give a little bit more because
i think we can resign him nope you do not get to say that and number two uh the fact that otani is a dh only
it it doesn't matter you just bench mitch hanniger when mitch hanniger needs a dh dh dhs
day sorry we're using otani like you just bench kyle lewis you send kyle lewis down you
df a carlosan it doesn't matter like if otani's feeling well enough to play and even oton
Tony needs days off. Usually after he pitches, the day after he pitches, he's not in the lineup.
So you can still make it work. But like if your big concern is, well, what are we going to do with all the other guys who need D.H days?
Cut them, trade them, DFA. It doesn't matter. It's show a Otani. Why does Kyle Lewis need to get at bats over showy Otani? Get out of here with that nonsense.
So let's just start with that idea that it's for a year and some change. And it's nobody on this roster is preventing showy O'Tani from getting that bats. Nobody.
let's just start with those two and we can build the conversation around that yeah so obviously this is a
little bit different than one soto right because there's the pitching element of course you more
or less address two needs rather than one and well sloop with one player you add the bat that you
need and you add the starting pitcher that you need all in the same trade all with one single
players. So I'm more open to spending a ton of prospect capital on Otani than I am with Soto,
just because for that fact alone, right? Because the added value of him being a pitcher and being a
very, very good pitcher, by the way, he's like not, he's not just like a mid-rotation started.
Like, Shohay Otani is a top 20, top 30 pitcher in all baseball on top of being one of the best
hitters in all baseball as well. So like, let's get that straight as well here. Because like,
this is just different.
This is different.
So if we're more willing to say,
include a Logan Gilbert or George Kirby
and a Shohei Otani deal than a Juan Soto deal,
despite Otani having one year less of club control,
it's because of that.
It's because of the value that he adds as a starting pitcher
on top of the bat.
So what would it cost, though?
Like, let's jump into that.
Like, obviously, you know,
there's been reports about what the nationals won for Soto,
which is like four top five guys,
you know,
and stuff on top of that major league ready pieces etc so what what would the angels want what would
the angels say yes to especially from a division rival yeah um that's the other thing too the reason
i don't think otani is going to get traded i think the two teams that make arguably the most
sense are are the mariners and the rangers well because they have the farm system and the young
major leaguers in place to make competitive offers um those are
Artie Moreno going to swallow his pride and allow a trade in division.
No.
But, you know, it's funny, MLB network, they, of course, they ran with this quickly.
And they threw up a trade package already that they think might work.
And they threw out the Mariners get Otani.
The angels get George Kirby, Noel V.
Marte, Harry Ford, Emerson Hancock, and Kyle Lewis.
It's expensive.
I would really like to not trade George Kirby.
I think George Kirby, like if he was truly available,
I think Kirby might be like top 15 in all of baseball in terms of trade value.
Wow.
Because he's a young pitcher who you get for six full seasons and the rest of this year.
And he's already a number three.
Like I don't think that's hyperbole.
So I would much rather trade Logan Gilbert, honestly,
even though Gilbert might be a little bit better today.
but if that's you know the angels are like willing to do that you have to listen
like one player off your major league roster that matters
no offense to Kyle Lewis but he's it's hard not to look at him as a full-time
dhatch and and it's show hey otani so really what it is is it's your three of you two
three of your top four prospects and you actually get to keep
a royo in this proposal i think the angels prefer a royo but the angels are stupid so who knows
So really what it is off your Major League roster is you're replacing Kirby with Otani
and you're adding that bat in there.
I think you probably have to pull the trigger on this,
but I would really prefer not to give up Kirby.
Everybody else in this deal I do not care about whatsoever.
I'll help them pack.
But Kirby, that's where I kind of, I would really prefer to hold on to George Kirby.
But at the end of the day, if the angels are willing to do this trade,
I think you probably have to.
I mean,
it's Shohei Otani.
Like,
Shohei Otani.
It's like,
it's like acquiring like prime Jesse Winker and like prime Frankie Montes at like.
And the same player.
Yeah,
in the same trade.
Like,
it's,
it's insane.
It's,
I mean,
it's,
it's the ultimate cheat code.
And I think if the Mariners did do that,
this trade,
I mean,
you're going Robbie Ray,
Logan Gilbert,
show Hey,
Otani.
they're a World Series contender at that point,
even if they can only get in as a wild card.
They're still a World Series contender,
and they would be the next year as well.
Yeah, yeah, it's true.
And again, you know, extension doesn't factor into that.
So you're paying for the one and a half years.
And I mean, it's fairly short term, but it's Joey O'Tonnie.
Like, that's the counterpoint there.
That's the ultimate counterpoint here.
with any argument against this deal.
The counterpoint always is, well, it's Shohei Otani, though.
Right.
And it's Otani who's going to make like $30 million.
Like it's not like Otani and like he's making $52 million next year.
Not that that really matters that much to a team like the Mariners, but still, you know, it's,
he's the best bargain in baseball.
He has been for six years.
So, yeah.
And, you know, just for the record.
I do think your odds of signing Otani to extension are better than Soto, but it doesn't matter.
Like, it's irrelevant to the actual conversation at hand.
You have to, you can only value Otani for what you know you have them for, which is the next year and a half.
All right, so let's move on.
Let's look at last night's game.
The Mariners unfortunately fell four to two to the Houston Astros down at Minutemate Park,
Unserious Ballpark, multiple potential home runs, just dying out the warning.
track, the most casual home run robbery ever by Kyle Tucker.
I mean, just the list goes on.
The Cowell Raleigh drop ball, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
We're going to get into all of it in just a moment.
But real quick, a reminder that this episode of Lockdown Mariners is brought to you by
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And unfortunately, the Mariners did not get off to a great start against Jose
Rikiti last night.
only scored two runs off of rikiti uh who had a pretty good stuff last night and the uh the mariners were just not able to really capitalize off of you know some opportunities that they got the few opportunities that they got they did load the bases uh at one point and drove in a couple runs on some sacrifices but that was it for the ems and uh they just weren't able to uh to get the big hit when they needed it they had they were pretty close at times there was a ball hit from tie france that went right off the top of the crawford box and they just weren't able to uh
There was the casual home run robbery by Kyle Tucker.
There was the Adam Fraser opposite field hit that nearly bounced off of the Crawford boxes, but just died right at the warning track.
And that would have scored a go ahead run there.
And I believe that was in the seventh.
So it just, you know, they just can get that big hit no matter what they did.
And unfortunately, they have lost four in a row now to the Houston Astros.
to open up the second half.
And they have officially lost the season series against the Astros as well.
They have three games left, but they are now six and ten against the Astros on the year.
So let's look at Logan Gilbert, who has been kind of shaky over his last few starts.
In this game, he goes six innings pitch, two run runs, both coming off of a two run shot by Alex
Breggman over the Crawford boxes, of course, because again, unsurious ballpark.
And of course, it always just favors the Astros somehow.
It always finds a way to just favor the Astros and never the Mariners, never, ever, ever the Mariners whatsoever.
Yeah, so Gilbert strikes out six.
He, of course, gives up the home run, two walks, 13 swings and misses.
What did you see out of Gilbert last night, Colby?
I didn't think he was all that sharp, to be honest with you.
The final line looks fine.
It's certainly not a bad out of any stretch, but there were times where he,
He was just spiking multiple off-speed pitches in a row.
Fastball caught too much of the plate at times.
He's able to get away with it.
But we see still just how much, just, you know, 55 control of his fastball and 50 command.
Like, that's how good that pitch is, is that he was able to spot it enough that he was able to get through six innings and against a good lineup in a terrible park to, you know, get the Marines a legitimate chance to win that game.
And so I didn't think Gilbert was all that good.
I think he was better in his last outing.
But, you know, it's one of those things where, hey, Gilbert didn't have his best stuff.
But he found a way to work through the lineup three times and give his team a chance to win.
And that's kind of part of the maturation process of your young pitcher.
So overall, you have to be encouraged.
Like I guess that wasn't even Gilbert at his best.
The stuff wasn't great.
The velocity wasn't eye-popping, the command and control were, I mean, you start.
like he walked a ton of guys. So the control was fine. But the command, he missed his spot quite a bit.
Never really found the change up. Never really found the slider, you know, that we are used to.
And yet he found a way. So you got to give him credit for that. He worked his way through that.
And so overall, I mean, you have to be fine with that out of it because Gilbert's like any pitcher is not going to have his best stuff and control and command every time he goes out there.
But he gave his team a shot to win. And that's all you can do as a starter. So overall, you have to be pretty happy with what
he did. So ultimately this was kind of just a game of missed opportunities. Like I said,
they couldn't get the hit. And then also, you know, in the bottom of the eighth, when the Astros
eventually took the lead on Alex Breggman's RBI double, you know, Uli Griel stole second base to get
into scoring position that set up that RBI double there. That's what basically allowed the
Astros to take the lead. Cal Rale would have had him dead to rights had he been able to cleanly pick up
the ball and make the throw, unfortunately, just didn't.
And you know what?
That's going to happen.
Things like that are going to happen.
And, you know, there's just nothing you can really do about it.
It's just baseball.
It's just what it is.
But yeah, disappointing loss.
Andreas Munoz finally got tagged for his first two runs allowed in 15 in a third
innings pitch.
Yeah.
He also heard Alex Bregman on a play.
Yeah.
Did Bregman go back out for the ninth?
I don't remember, but that's something to keep an eye on for
today with lineups.
Yeah.
Lineups drop.
Nothing malicious or anything like that.
Yeah, no.
Munoz just wasn't good last night.
That'll happen.
He's pitched now for the last five games.
He's out tonight.
There's no chance they're going to use him.
And he just looked like a guy who was, he needed a day, right?
And he just couldn't get it because the fastball was all over the place.
Even the slider was in the middle of the play.
He struck out Yordon, but two of those sliders were.
you know, batting practice locations.
So, you know, it just, it happens, you know, it's a, it's a young arm.
It's the first time he's ever gone four out of five days.
Didn't go well.
Could really use a break.
And that's where losing Diego Castillo hurt you, even though Castillo hasn't been great this month.
He's still an arm you could have used instead.
And so, like I said, it's a bummer because Munoz has been so great.
And a lot of people look at that and say, well, Munoz blew it.
And it's like, no, the Mariners' offense blew it.
And it won't get any easier tonight.
So plus side, last time we had to face Justin Verlander this year.
So.
Well, at least in the regular season.
At least in the regular season.
And after that, you don't care.
The, yeah, we'll see how it goes tonight.
How did the A's sweep this team?
Well, I guess they didn't face Justin Verlander.
That's a good first step.
They also faced J-Co to Rizzi, which, hey, the Mariners are going to be able to do.
at some point in this series.
That's tomorrow or is that the day after?
I think it's the day after.
I think is it Framber tomorrow?
Yeah.
Or Javier.
Don't get swept guys.
How did the A's sweep this team?
I just, I want to know.
I just, I want to know how.
What kind of sick, dark magic are they using over there in Oakland?
Like, how?
I don't know.
I don't.
Maybe the Mariners need to acquire Paul Blackburn for the playoffs.
I don't.
know. But yeah, it is it's it's weird because the A's are terrible. But hey, you know, they played the Mariners pretty tough. So they're scrappy, let's say. And then I don't know, the Mariners are kind of, they kind of substituted out Oakland. They stopped bullying the Oakland A's and decide, instead have decided to bully the Texas Rangers. So we'll see if they can get Chris Woodward to run away from the ALE West, but like they did Bob Melvin. But, uh,
I kind of doubt it.
But, yeah, baseball is weird, man.
I don't get it.
Mariners have won 17 games in a row.
Asteris, not counting the, not counting the Astros.
So baseball, man, it's weird.
The athletics, very scrappy.
Jim rats.
First one in, last one out, et cetera.
Surprisingly athletic.
Mm-hmm.
Yep.
Sneaky, sneaky speed.
Sneaky athleticism.
Yep, yep, yep.
Classic.
Mm-hmm.
That's going to do it for the show.
Thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockedon,
Mariner's podcast for Colby Pat Doe. I'm Taday and
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