Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Baseball America Ranks Mariners Farm System First in MLB

Episode Date: August 16, 2021

Join Locked On Mariners hosts Ty Dane Gonzalez as they break down the Mariners' weekend series win against the Blue Jays, what's going on with Logan Gilbert's pitch selection and Baseball America officially ranking Seattle's farm system first in Major League Baseball.Be sure to follow or subscribe to Locked On Mariners wherever you prefer your podcasts! For questions and other inquiries, email: [e-mail] the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @danegnzlz | @CPat11For more of Ty and Colby, check out their Patreon: http://patreon.com/controlthezone/StatHeroStatHero, the FIRST Ever Daily Fantasy Sportsbook that gives the PLAYER the ADVANTAGE. Go to StatHero.com/LockedOn for 300% back on your first play.Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

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It is Monday, August 16th, 2021. This is the Lockdown Mariners podcast. You're home for Daily Seattle Mariners News and analysis. I am your host, Tidey & Gonzalez, joined as always by my co-host Colby Patneau. This is our second week hosting Lockdown Mariners. So if this is your first time tuning in since the change, hello and welcome. We are going to be talking about the Mariners unexpected, but certainly welcome. Series win over the Toronto Blue Jays this past weekend.

We're also going to talk about some concerning trends in Logan Gilbert's last few starts and then taking more positive route by looking at baseball America's favorable ranking of the Mariners farm system. But Colby, let's start things off with this past series. Obviously, Sunday's game was bad. We'll just say it outright. It was bad. And we're going to get into that more later on in the show. But the Mariners take the first two games of the series, the first being a. walk off walk by jerry kellnick and a great celebration by kelnick if i do say so myself and then

you know and an offensive downpour from the mariners on saturday night a game that you were at with louis terns tallying five rbis and kelnick with perhaps his most impressive hit of his young career this far as smooth opposite field solo shot to extend the ms lead in that one overall how surprised were you by the series and what stood out to you the most Yeah, it was quite surprising to see Seattle take two or three. You know, it was, it's, the most surprising thing is that Seattle scored more than four runs in one game, actually in one inning, let alone one game. That's something that they've done exactly once in the last 12 games, I believe, and it was on Saturday. So, yeah, the offense came alive for one game against an absolutely putrid.

Blue Jay's bullpen. I mean, how they didn't do more to address that. I don't know how they thought that was going to be okay, but it's not. It's not a good bullpen. You know, it was fun to see, certainly, especially when you're at the stadium. It was surprising. It kind of came out of nowhere because before that, you know, Seattle had just gone down three to two in the top of the seventh, I believe it was.

It, you know, it kind of felt like a, okay, well, you know, you kind of need somebody to run into one and try and win this thing an extras because that's kind of how the Mariners' offense has been. And no, actually, you didn't. Well, I mean, you got it, but yeah, Terenz calls ballgame. And then, of course, Kellenick follows up with an absolute laser shot into the bullpen. And, yeah, you know, it was fun to drink from the keg of victory that was filled entirely by Blue Jay fans' tears. There weren't a lot of them at Team Mobile on Saturday.

But for some reason, I did not see anybody after the seventh inning. I don't know. Maybe they had a ferry to catch or something. But yeah, it was pretty much emptied out of the Blue J fans around the seventh inning. I don't know why. But there it was. Yeah, I mean, you know, probably, you know, just, you know, trying to hurry up, get home so they can tweet more about Jared Kellnick or something.

but you know overall you know the the the pitching was really strong for the mariners in the first two games not you know fantastic starts by any means from you say kakuchi or chris flex and they were they were solid both but definitely not at their a game but this bullpen able to really limit a great blue jays lineup and you know and overall even even with you know flex and who did give up quite a bit of hard contact in this one on Friday. When you limit this kind of offense to just two runs in a game, you got to feel pretty good about that. So overall, really strong, strong outing from the Mariners in both of these games. Overall, what did you think about the pitching?

The bullpen was great. Starting pitching, not too good. You know, final lines, with the exception of Gilbert, we're fine. But, yeah, flexing giving up a lot of hard contact, which isn't all that surprising. That's kind of what he does. But, you know, at the end of the day, he does what he does, and he gives you a chance to win. Kikuchi was a heart attack every single time he went out there. It was really struggling with the strike zone at times.

the velocity was down a little bit. And, you know, there was a time when he when he loaded the bases, right? I think it was the second or third inning. And there was one out and it just looked like he was dead to right. And then he comes back with like, what,

two strikeouts or one strike out and a flyout or something. I forget how that worked out. I think he struck out Springer and then Simeon blew out to Hanaker. I believe that's how that worked. And that kind of seemed like a trend for like this whole game, really. Right. for this whole series really was Mariners pitchers getting into trouble

with less than two outs and being able to walk that tight rip and get out of these jams. Yeah. Yeah, it's not something you want to be, you know, have a lot of experience at. Kikuchi, however, is getting there. He did the same thing against the Yankees in Yankee Stadium. And, you know, the final line at five runs

or five innings, one run in Yankee Stadium. And this time around, It's four and two thirds and two runs, I believe. It's just that's not going to work. And, you know, this is, this is kind of starting to become a trend for Kukuchi here in this last, you know, really the last since he was named an All-Star, it's been pretty hit or miss with what you get from YK. And that option decision is looming. And it's, it's fascinating to see what Seattle does. Because honestly, what looked like a no-brainer in June now is, you know, yeah.

know, kind of a, you know, a 50-50 proposition right now. So, uh, we'll see that's an interesting case study. And one, we're probably going to be looking at quite a bit, uh, on this show over, you know, the next few months leading up into the off season, uh, four walks on the night for, for, for, uh, for YK, which is not super like him. Um, you know, just five strikeouts. Uh, that ratio is definitely not, uh, like, uh, you say, usually. Um, But, you know, that's going to happen against the lineup like this if you're not on your A game. This team draws out along at bats.

They're able to capitalize on mistakes very easily. And, I mean, you saw that on Sunday with Gilbert. Yep. I mean, it's probably the second best lineup in baseball, right? I mean, it's either Toronto or Houston. Maybe the Yankees are up there. Maybe the White Sox are up there. But it's like a legitimate, it rivals.

pretty much everybody, including the Dodgers and the, uh, in the, in the, uh, in the Padres, uh, in terms of just, you know, star power in that lineup. So yeah, it's, it's not one that you should, um, basically you shouldn't be able to pitch as poorly as Kikuchi did and get away with it. What happened to Logan Gilbert on Sunday should have happened to Kukuchi on Saturday, but, uh, you know, you do have to give him some credit. He was able to make some big pitches. Um, yep. It's just, you know, you'd like to not be in that situation to begin with. But hey, you know, it's, it's, the Mariners don't have, have an ace.

So you're going to have to grit and grind through a lot of these starts. And in Seattle, you know, for the most part, they've been able to do it. So, yeah, like I said, I wouldn't say the starting pitching was really good this, this series. But it was good enough to win two or three in the bullpen without Paul Seewald, by the way, was, was just nails. So that, that was really impressive. Yeah, absolutely. All right. coming up should the mariners skip logan gilbert's next start but first a quick word from our sponsor stat hero

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So go to stathero.com slash locked on. Stathero.com slash locked on. This is locked on Mariners. Be sure to tune in to tomorrow's show as we preview the Mariners second trip to Arlington, Texas in a month's time. But now let's get into Logan Gilbert, who had a dreadful start in the final game of this Blue Jays series. And you can kind of see this coming.

The fastball usage had continued to trend up. towards an alarming rate over his last few starts. And as a result, hardly any off-speed stuff coming from Gilbert. He was mostly a one-pitch pitcher yesterday afternoon. Of the 88 pitches, he threw 56 were fastballs. That's 63.6% of the time in terms of a secondary. He mostly relied on his slider, which wasn't very good. And he only threw three changeups.

That's just not going to be a winning formula against this Blue Jays lineup, nor most lineups really so colby you know what is your level of concern right now with gilbert and do you think the mariners should either skip his next start or send him down to triple a or just ride this one out yeah it's it's kind of a tough spot um you know it's interesting you read off the the pitch usage from gilbert that actually is is down significantly from where he was in the first two innings i think he was at 80% fastball after the first two 74 yeah so yeah so yeah so you started to throw the slider a lot more in the third and the fourth but it it wasn't good i mean he he only was able to get two whiffs on it on 13 swings um and he only got one called strike on it so

of 26 or sorry of 23 sliders he only got a strike a swinging strike or a called strike on three of them that's that's not going to apply so um it's it's pretty clear that gilbert's just not comfortable with the slider or the change up right now we haven't really seen the change up at all the last month. And every time we do, it, it ends up, you know, halfway through the right-handed batters box. So, yeah, it's, it's a concerning trend now. This is four or five times in a row where it's just, you know, pounding the fastball, pounding the fastball.

And he's got a pretty good one. But it's not, I mean, nobody in baseball can survive with just a fastball. So he's got to figure something out. And, you know, it's interesting. He's at, I think 80. right now right around that mark and we have to remember he didn't throw any innings last year you know he threw in the alternate training site but no in game innings last year so yeah you know you kind of start to wonder hey is is this I is this you know are we heading

towards a shutdown early at the end of this month are we are we you know is it time to skip a start or two and and have them back in September is it time to maybe use him out of the bullpen and kind of strengthen your bullpen that way because the the the basketball stuff we'll play for an inning or two. But eventually you need that other pitch. So yeah, you're just kind of stuck in no man's land, though, because if you send down Logan Gilbert, who replaces them? Sheffield has been awful.

And he got lit up in his first rehab start. Dunn hasn't gotten back on the mound yet in a game. You know, and so what you're looking at, Darren McCacken again? Ian McKinney. Yeah, I mean, you're probably better off going with... Robert Dugger. You're probably going off with staying with Gilbert over McCacken and Dugger in the bullpen days. So really, it's a simple question.

Do you want Ian McKinney or do you want Logan Gilbert? Who do you think gives you a better shot to win? Because that's really your only realistic option unless there's a starter out there who gets, you know, released or DFA that Seattle picks up. So, yeah, you're kind of in a tight row because you're still technically in the playoff chase. and Gilbert is, you know, one of your five best starters, but also you have to think about the long-term, you know, effects of Gilbert and you don't want to overextend him in year one. So, yeah, you're just kind of walking this really tight, you know, tightrope.

And it speaks to why, you know, Jerry DePoto, even after he acquired Tyler Anderson, was still very much involved in the starting pitching market. Yep. And, you know, it just didn't work out. So, yeah, Seattle's kind of trying to walk a little bit of a tightrope here. and it's not it's not going to be an easy decision. In retrospect, and of course, you know, hindsight is 2020,

but do you think it was a mistake not getting a second starter of any kind at the deadline? I mean, would it have been better if they did? Yeah, but you saw the prices. So it's tough, you know, I. But we've talked, we had talked about, you know, guys like Jacob, Junis, right? Like, guys that probably wouldn't cost that much, you know?

Right. But again, we don't, we don't understand, you know, I mean, the Royals were asking for Jared Kelnick for Whitmerfield. So who the hell knows? What they were asking for Junis or Mike Minor or anybody like that. So, yeah, they're just weren't a ton of motivated sellers. And when you kind of start looking at like the, the 4A type of guys or whatever, like, Jared Eikoff, like, you know, so it's, it's tough.

man, it was tough and the prices were bad. So, yeah, I mean, obviously you would want one. And, you know, it is worth noting that technically Jerry can still trade for somebody. The guy has to not be on the 40-man roster, and he can't have played in the majors this year. And you can acquire that guy. So is there a 4-A pitcher on the Diamondbacks AAA team or whatever? You know what I mean? That Jerry can trade for?

Maybe. But we'll have to see. So yeah, ideally, you would have gotten another starter, but you look at the prices and what was actually available and what we think was available. It's kind of easy to see why they couldn't make that happen. All right, so what do you need to see from Gilbert this offseason? Now that you've gotten roughly 80 innings of eyes on him,

what's got to be the game plan here for him? It's got to be about consistency. and it's got to be about having an off-speed pitch that you can throw for a strike on a regular basis. Yep. And this is the thing, you know, like the change-up and the slider when they're on, they're good enough to get swings and misses outside of the zone, but you have to at least threaten that you can throw for a strike. Otherwise, hitters will just spit on it and they'll just wait for the fastball that they know is coming, right?

So he has to get the slider or the change-up figured out to a point where he can throw it consistently for strikes, at least as much as he can throw his fastball for a strike. That's number one. You know, the number two is refining mechanics to make sure that he's not spiking the slider. He's not overthrowing that pitch, which is, I think, something we're seeing right now. And, you know, the third thing he might need is he might need to learn another pitch, just in case the slider and the change up could go away from him. And honestly, you know, the slider's pretty good.

I wonder if maybe he can learn a cutter. I feel like with the elite extension that Gilbert has and the fact that he already has a slider, you know, it does make me wonder if this is a guy who could learn a cutter. And, you know, the cutter is, the fastball is 95, 96, and the cutter is 92. You know, it's different enough from the fastball that it at least gives him a second pitch on a day like yesterday where he just, he didn't have one. So I think adding the cutter is something that's pretty simple. It's pretty easy to teach. You can pretty much pick it up in one off season, which is what he'll have. And you know, you don't replace the slider with the cutter or anything like that.

But again, it's just about having something in your back pocket, right, that you can use. Kind of like Chris Flex and his curveball. You know, just something that I could put in my back pocket and pull out when I really need it. Like when we saw Usay's change up if you start. to go and it was just, you know, an amazing pitch out of nowhere. He had it that day. Right. And it's just something that he can add.

So, yeah, I feel like, again, first and foremost, it's all about getting the off-speed pitch that he can threaten the strikes home with. That's what he needs. And it's not like he needs that to take the next step. He needs that to be a viable major league starter. So we'll see what he can do. But, you know, one thing we know about Gilbert is is that he works extremely hard. He's very into analytics.

He's a very, you know, heavy-minded pitcher. he really thinks these things through. So, you know, he's going to put in the work this winter. There's no doubt about that. All right. Well, Logan Gilbert, you know, we talked about it, you know, round 80 innings. So he's graduated from his prospect status along with Jared Kelnick. But the Mariners farm system may be in the best place it's been since the start of this rebuild back in 2018.

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you know, obviously you and I are both not super into prospect rankings. We do do our own on Patreon.com forward slash control the zone, by the way. Nice little plug there. But, you know, it's always nice to see this farm system get some recognition. And today, you know, baseball America over the last few weeks had been revealing, you know, some of their prospect rankings. But they officially ranked the each organization's farm system and the Mariners, surprisingly, come in at the top.

They have five Mariners in their top 50, Julio Rodriguez at number two, Noelvi Martaa at number eight, George Kirby at number 11. Emerson Hancock also comes in at number 50, sorry, so there's four, rather, in their top 50. They did have Jerich Kellnick in their top 10 as well

before he graduated. But are you surprised that this team came out ahead of, or this organization came out ahead of organizations like the raise. I mean, to me,

even with the loss of Wander Franco, I would personally, probably still lean towards the raise here, but baseball America would know. They would know better than you would know. But what do you think about this? And what does this say about, you know,

the work that Jerry DePoto and Andy McKay and company have done with this organization over the last two and a half years, three years. Well, first and foremost, it is cool, right? To have the Mariners as the best farm system in baseball, according to really any outlet, to have them at number one after, you know,

watching in 2018 where some fans were like, oh, you traded Tommy Romero? Like, that might not work out for you. So, yeah, it's cool to. Back when trading Seth Ellage for Sam Tui Vallala, I felt like the world was going to end. That was like your ninth best prospect was, was Seth Ellage.

So, um, yeah, it's, it's cool that they've come so far in such a short distance, but also it doesn't really mean anything, right? I mean,

it's not a guarantee of success. It's not, you know, it, the Padres had a highly ranked farm system for years before they even came close to scratching the surface. And that was largely, I mean,

that that was after they spent outrageous amounts of money on Manny Machado and Eric Cosmer, you know, so, um, it takes a while, you know, to,

to get these guys through. So yeah, it doesn't ultimately mean anything and it's all just opinion and it's not, you know, so whether they're one or three or five or seven, it really doesn't make a difference. It really does.

I mean, when is the last time the St. Louis Cardinals had a super high farm system ranks? I don't think they ever have as long as I've been paying attention and they're consistently good. So it's all about development. And so,

you know, but in terms of, you know, what does it say, it says Jerry has hired a team that is excellent at what they do. And therefore, by extension, Jerry deserves praise for this.

Andy McKay and his group are developing. The minor league staff is, you know, they're really good at developing these guys. The scouts are really good at finding these guys. So it's, it's a really cool organizational, uh,

win. It's a win for the baseball ops department. Uh, it's, you know, something that is, is, is insanely fun and cool to think about it.

It's easy to dream about and it's easy to brag about. But ultimately, it all comes down to how do these guys perform at the big leagues. Some of these guys were years away from finding out. But yeah, you know, like would I rather have Tampa system? Probably. But, you know, if you want Tampa, if you want Tampa, if you want, probably not San Diego anymore, Pittsburgh's got a pretty good system right now, Detroit. Like, if you want one of those systems over Seattle, that's fine.

Like it's not, it's not a huge difference to me. But it's just fascinating to me that that Seattle can graduate, you know, a top 10 prospect. They can graduate another top, I don't know, 50 prospect. I don't remember quite where Gilbert was ranked. And they can graduate, you know, Taylor Tremel, who's a French top 100 guy and Cal Raleigh, who is probably a top 150 guy. And they can still be, you know, their farm system might be better than ever, you know. So it's a crazy cool accomplishment.

But in terms of what it does on the field at the major league level, not a thing yet. But this winter, you know, we'll see what that hype can buy you on the trade market. Right. Yeah, it's cool. And it just doesn't have quite as much value to the big league team right now as, you know, some might be. Sure. it does. Sure.

You know, that's a great point about the trade market and what can this buy you, right? Because you've seen with teams that have had the, you know, consensus top one, top three farm system and baseball go out and be a, you know, a big spender in the trade market. Most recently the Padres. Right. So, you know, we'll see what they do with that, you know, from a development side and from a, you know, scouting side of things. this is well deserved, right?

We've seen this for a long time actually, you know, covering the team being involved in the team. And now from a national, you know, perspective, they're being recognized. And that's really awesome. And obviously, you know, this is the opinions of guys that have to look at hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of prospects from all 30 organizations. So, you know, sometimes those opinions can be skewed. Sometimes those opinions rely on other people's opinions. and, you know, how does that all translate? So, you know, ultimately you as a consumer of that,

just kind of have to look at it for what it is. And that's, it might be a little inconsistent, but it still makes this recognition cool in itself. And, you know, you've seen it with this development team. What they've been able to do to raise the ceilings of a lot of their prospects. I mean, you look at Matt Brash, right, this year. Matt Brash has come out of no way. And now, you know, we were asked on our live stream on Friday if we would put him ahead of Brandon Williamson.

And you and I both agree now that Matt Brash is probably ahead of Brandon Williamson and in our prospect ranks. That's, I mean, that was a guy that started the season, I think, with our prospect ranks in the 30s, in the 30s to like late 20 range. That's pretty incredible. And he was widely regarded just as a reliever. look at him and he's got three legit pitches. And it's probably going to be a starter. I mean, that's what they've been able to do with that. And they got him for Taylor Williams of all people, too.

Like that's just. The trade partner that just keeps on giving and given. I mean, I don't know. Yeah, speaking to the progress. I don't know who deserves a bigger steak dinner in Seattle. Brody Van Wagonin or AJ Preller. But, oh, boy. Jerry whipped up on them pretty good.

Yeah, and so you know, you look at guys like Brash, you look at guys like Noel V. Marte, who when they signed, you know, in the international signing period a few years ago was, you know, he, he certainly had the potential to be one of the top prospects in this farm system, but you could never know that he, you know, without even leaving low A was going to be a top 10 prospect in Major League Baseball. You know, just the, he was, I feel like, I mean, there is. The trajectory was certainly there. But like the, I feel like somebody very smart said on a certain podcast that by the end of the year, Marta was going to be top 25. I mean, so some of us were pretty close.

Yeah, yeah. No, I think before, I think before the year, no, you and I both were in agreement, especially after seeing the build that he came in at last year and

summer camp and all that, you know, just how advanced physically he was. But yeah, when he was signed, though, I don't think anyone can predict this, right?

You know, I don't think a lot of people can predict where a lot of these guys are now. You know, maybe the, you know, maybe folks that have more of an eye on the situation that, you know, like the Joe Doyles and the Jason Churchill's of the world, maybe they were able to foresee this a little bit for some of these guys. But overall, you know, just what they've been able to do for a lot of these prospects and the ceilings that they've raised is incredible.

And they deserve all the recognition that they're getting right now. 100%. Yeah. So I, um, I'm really excited. about this. I'm really happy for them. I'm glad that they are finally getting their due. They absolutely deserve it.

And we'll see. We'll see how it turns out because like you said, this doesn't equate to any on-field success right now at the major league level. A lot of folks, you know, they look at these rankings and they think, well, these top 10 guys are going to make up our superstars

for the next seven years. And that's not going to be the case. A lot of these guys are going to be trade chips. A lot of these guys are unfortunately going to bust, even with the ceilings that have been raised and the potential that you have there. Some of these guys are naturally going to bust. Some of these guys are going to struggle. I mean, a lot of people felt like Jared Kelnick was going to come up and be a superstar and, you know, more realistically, the more realistic outcome happened, right?

He struggled. These things happened. And, you know, like with Kelnik, he's started to figure it out a little bit and guys will eventually figure it out. but you know i i i do see a lot of um talk about you know when when looking at julio rodriguez or you know what have you and people projecting out there 2022-22 23 mariners lineups and i get it's fun but you know a lot of those include you know julio just as a foregone conclusion that julio is going to be a rookie of the year all-star type

right out of the gate and it's that's usually not the case i mean the likes of juan soto the likes of ronald acunia etc the guys that pop off right away are the exception. They're not the rule. So we'll see, but I think this is a really cool moment for the Mariners organization and for Jerry Depoto and Andy McKay specifically. So yeah, so that's going to do it for today's show. Appreciate you tuning in and joining us for some baseball talk.

We'll be back tomorrow with a preview of the Mariners Rangers series starting tomorrow night. The Mariners getting an off day today. So feel free to keep the Seattle sports vibes going, however, by checking out locked on Seahawks. As Corbin Smith, Rob Rang, and Nick Lee recap all the action from Saturday's preseason opener between the Seahawks and the Raiders. For Colby Pat node, I'm tied in Gonzales and this has been locked on Mariners. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L-O-U-U-U-U-N-Rerners. You can follow me at Dane Gonzalez. That's D-A-N-Z-L-Z and Colby at CPAT 11.

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