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Big Brain Theory: What the Mariners Could Trade One of Their Young Arms For

July 28, 20230 comments♥ 0
00:00The trade deadline is fast approaching and rumors are swirling about the Mariners.It's time to put on our tinfoil hats and talk about what's going on here on the Locked on Marries podcast.Colby hit it.You are Locked on Mariners.Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast.Part of the Locked on podcast network.Your team every day.Ohoy, sailors.
00:22It is Friday, July 28th, 2023.This is Tadding Azales and Colby Patented for the Locked on Mariner's podcast.Thank you so much for making us your first listen.subscribe, like and turn on alerts if you're watching on YouTube or subscribe and leave a five-starreview on your preferred podcast platform if you like what you hear.And if you're part of the crew and rock with us every single day, let us know in the commentsbelow.And if you want to hear from us even more, please consider signing up for our Patreon.
00:44You can now get a free seven-day trial to check out the show.The link as well as our social accounts is in the description of this episode.Today we're going to answer the question, what is Jerry Depoto and Justin Hollander cooking?obviously there was a report last night from ken rosenthal that sent everyone in the mariner's community into a frenzy we're going to talk all about that but colby let's start here the mariners are beginning a three game series with the arizona diamondbacks tonight you can catch all the action on the merri's hometown broadcast of serious xm via the sxm app of course and jerry depoto on the wheelhouse podcast apparently i haven't personallylisten to this episode of the wheelhouse.But I've seen a lot of people on Twitter saying that he said this, that the next fourgames are going to determine a lot with the trade deadline and how the marriage isapproached the trade deadline.
01:41So Colby, what do you make of that comment?And do you think that's the smart way to go about things if you're the mirrors and ifyou're Jerry Depoto?No, which is why I don't believe he's, that's what he's saying.I believe like maybe that's what he's saying publicly, but no, you can't go, you know, a hundred and what are they,103 games into the year now or whatever.And you can't wait four more games to decide whether or not you're a buyer or a seller.You have to know now.
02:10If you don't know now, you're a seller.It's really that simple.If you don't know for sure right now that you're a buyer, you're a seller.And the Mariners aren't sellers.We know they're not sellers.They've already said as much.They're not selling.So no, I don't buy it.
02:22Also, you know, worth noting that that podcast,was recorded a week ago.So yeah, cool, awesome.It's not a big deal.There's nothing to read here.And, you know, every four game series or every four games is a big four games now.But I just refuse to believe that Jerry Depoto is going to decide based on a four game sample,whether or not his team is fine.
02:47Because you can't just wait until deadline day to decide whether or not you're going to buy or sell.You're having those conversations now.And if you decide to wait and see.see how your team does, you're going to lose players because the sellers are not going to waitand see with you.So if there's a deal available right now that Jerry can make that makes them better, you should do it.Without hesitation, he should do it because you can't sit and let a two and two stretchdictate one way or the other because at the end of the day, they are probably going to be
03:19five between four and a half and six and a half back after this four game stretch, regardlessof how they do.because Toronto has to win, you know, three out of four or whatever,and Houston has to win all four to even put you in the position where you're like eight,nine back.You can't,you can't have your cake and eat it too,Jerry.
03:36Either you're in and you believe in this team and you're going to invest in them or you'renot.You can't be in the middle right now and say,well,we're not sure.Yes, you are.You are absolutely sure.You made up your mind already.
03:48And the longer you wait,the more poorly things can go for you.because if you wait until the deadline day,not only are you not going to have that guy for the next four games,you're probably not going to have them for another two games after thatbecause it takes a while for physicals and for guys to get acclimated.And typically you're not, you know,they're flying across the country and whatnot.
04:07So yeah, no, you can't just punt six games because, oh,we want to see how these next four go.No, I don't believe Jerry when he says thatbecause I don't believe Jerry Depoto is stupid.And four games, one way or the other,is not going to make a significant difference.Let's say they went all four.Best case scenario.
04:26They went all four.Cool.Awesome.What did you gain from that?Literally nothing.Nothing from waiting.You could have had more players earlier.I understand this idea.
04:38Like as you get closer to the deadline,maybe the price has dropped.No.That's not how it works.Yeah, you run a major risk of letting the market pass you by.And Jerry has talked about that.specifically when talking about the off season and reflecting on this past off season and kind of his regrets.And a big part of that is misreading the trade market.
05:02So I can't believe that he would make the same mistake again when he is very recently acknowledged that.So, yeah, I think they've already made their decision.Because, again, yeah, mathematically they could be eight and a half back after the,the next four games, right?But a lot has to happen.And yeah, if you're eight and a half back, then yeah, that probably changes things, right?Because your odds of making a run towards the postseason, pretty slim at that point.But, right.
05:35Again, I think you're probably like, what is most likely going to happen?You're probably just going to be in the same spot that you're in right now, which is stillwithin reach of the postseason, still have a lot of talent.even if you just add complimentary pieces to the talent that you already have,you have a good shot of making a run towards the postseason.You still have a lot of teams that you,you know,that you have to fend off here and you got to catch up to a couple teams here,
06:02all that,whatever.But again,we've,we've talked about this,that there's a,there's a pretty,there's a pretty clear path to them still making a run and getting into
06:12October.So I,again,with that of mind,and,and I also saw,quote from the same show of him sayingthat he basically has the
06:242023 team at the forefront of his mindwhen it comes to the deadline.So I think that says to me, at the very least,they are going to add to some degreeto this roster.Right.So I just, I don't think that the move,that the needle moves significantly
06:40in one way or the other withwhat is realistically going to happenover the next four days.Right.and the idea that like, oh, no, we better not trade Alberto Rodriguez for Tommy Fam because in four days we might be eight and a half back.That's stupid.It's idiotic.And there's no way Jerry's thinking like that because you can replace to get Mark, Marcanada, to get Tommy Fam to get whoever, any one of these just decent bat rentals, Randall Gritchek, whoever you're giving up, you can easily replace and you will replace because guys will get better in your own system.
07:14You'll replace, you've already replaced some of them with the draft.and you'll replace even more next year.So this idea that like, oh, well, we don't want to be too aggressive on these rentals too early because we lose four in a row.You're not giving up anything to get them anyways.So spare me that line of logic.It doesn't make sense.Jerry's not doing that.So in short, I don't buy his sentiment that like, oh, we might wait for these four games and see how those.
07:38No, you're not.No, you're not.So, yeah, I just, I don't believe him.So let's quickly talk about this series coming up here against the Diamondbacks.Fortunately, you're going to miss Zach Gallen.Diamondback's pitching staff after Gallen, not that imposing, but they do have a very talented offense.Of course, led by the local kid, Corvin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo is an all-star this year.They have a lot of speed with guys like Jake McCarthy, Alec Thomas.
08:07So it's a difficult matchup for the Mariners to be sure, but what are your thoughts overall heading into the series?Yeah.You got to win the series.The pitching does favor you.But it is a tough matchup.You didn't even mention Cotel Marte, which is kind of fitting.Oh, right.Seems to be the most overrated or underrated player in all of baseball this year.
08:28Didn't even make an All-Star team.And his numbers are insane.So, yeah, yeah.Yeah, this is an offense that can swing it a little bit.They also incredibly aggressive on the bases.They will still bags in this series.And the Mariners aren't particularly good.at that at preventing that.
08:46Really?Yeah, it's a bit of a mismatch from that perspective.But you are a better roster.You have better pitching.You're coming off the day off, which you desperately need it.So the bullpen should be in decent shape.So yeah, I think for me, I think it's a totally reasonable expectation to go out and winthis series.
09:06You know, you hope that the bats continue what we saw in Minnesota.you know, for at least a couple of these games.And you can kind of, you know, it's just to be nice to just cruise to a seven to three victory at some point where you can kind of throw, you know, Devin's sweet for the last two innings and not really worry about it.But yeah, it's nice that the bullpen got a day off they desperately need.You have the pitching advantage.You know, this isn't a great ballpark for you with your outfield defense.It's kind of hit or miss right now.It's not a great matchup.
09:40When these guys get on base, they're going to steal bags on you.So it's not an easy, it's not an easy trip down to Arizona, but you are catching them at the right time because you're not going to face Gallen.And they are struggling right now.I think they won six out of their last like 20 or something like that.Like it's been a rough month for Arizona.So you should be okay.And I think it's fair based on all those factors to expect them to win this series.And they should.
10:08All right.Well, let's get into the meat and potatoes of our show.We're going to be talking about that Ken Rosenthal article that dropped last night.That sent Mariners Twitter and the Mariners community in general into a frenzy.And that includes you and I even.We spent a lot of time last night speculating, trying to figure out deals that makes sense, all that.So we're going to talk all about that in just a moment.But first, a reminder of this episode of the Lockdown Maris podcast is brought to you by eBay Motors.
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11:18eBay motors.com, let's ride. eBay guarantee fit only available to U.S. customers,eligible items. Only exclusions apply. And you're listening to the Lockdown Mariners podcast.Thank you again for making us your first listen. Again, you can catch the Mariners and the Diamondbackstonight on the mayor's hometown broadcastwith serious x-net would be the sxm appso ken rosenthal of the athleticis talking about the marinershe wrote last night
11:48that he has been toldthe mariners are consideringtrading one of their starting pitchersfor a packagekeyword there packagethat includes a bat ofsimilar or bettervalue.
12:06Sotrading the starter is somethingtrading one of your starters is something that you and I,Colby, have not been a fan of.And that's really becauseeven last night with all the digging that we didand all the talking that we didabout what this could possibly be,
12:26we didn't land on a lot of optionsthat make a ton of sense.Now, you and I have been doing thisfor years.And this wouldn't be the first time that we thought we've explored all possibilitiesand then Jerry Depoto somehow found a way to still surprise us.But on the Rosenthal report specifically, do you think there's validity to this?And what do you make of it in general?
12:56I do think there's some validity to it.I do believe that just the kind of bigger point of Rosenthalthaw's article is that controllable starting pitching is the hottest commodity, uh,that really the other 29 teams want.And that's, you know, kind of something that is probably being overlooked.Like you're just not like, it's not like only like world series contenders are going tobe interested in your pitching.So is Kansas City.
13:28And so is, you know, Colorado.Like everybody should be interested in the Mariners pitching.And so, you know, in the totality of his.his point. I do think that teams are calling Seattle about their pitching. I do think thatSeattle is at least entertaining those possibilities. I mean, why wouldn't they? And I supposebecause he does say they do have a package that they're considering that a team, at least one team,has made an offer that is, you know, worthy of the Mariners consideration. So I do believe it mostI don't believe that I would still be pretty surprised if the Mariners made a move like this
14:11where they trade one of their young pitchers for a package.But the fact that it's been leaked that this is something that they have in handand they're at least considering it.Like that tells you that there is at least one team out there that has made a really good offerthat is enough for the Mariners to consider trading one of their young arms,which is kind of what their entire franchise is built around, you know, those young armsin Julio. So yeah, I do believe most of it. I think I think maybe the part where I'm like,I don't see it is the idea that it's like likely to happen. I think, I think Seattle has it in
14:48their back pocket. I think that they are, you know, they've at least, you know, internallydiscussed it amongst themselves. But do I think it's likely that this deal would, that we'reever even going to know what the deal is? Probably not. But we'll see.so if you had to put money on it right now right this second who if that if there actually is an offer out there that the mariners are legitimately considering who do you think the pitcher or who do you think is the pitcher because it's not it's not curby it's not castillo so that leaves woo miller at lung gilbert who's obviously been the target of a lot of rumors lately so do you think it's gilbert so do you think it's gilbertDo you think it's one of the young guys?You had to put money on it.Who are you taking right now?I'd probably say it's Gilbert.
15:44The kind of the interesting part about, you know, this conversation is that Gilbert has four years of club control after this year.So he will be super two.So he will be RAB eligible.But whatever, who cares?Four years of club control instead of three.Which makes him, you know, super valuable, obviously, to everybody.but there are scenarios where this team,if they are not a contender this year,
16:09they might prefer Bryce Miller or Brian Wubecause they have two full seasons of club control morethan Gilbert does.And they're not going to get paid for another two years.So, you know, it's totally possible.There's a surprise team out there like Kansas Citywho wants Miller.And like they like Gilbert,
16:30but they think Miller can be just as good.and Kansas City is not going to be good for another two or three years anyway.So we'll just take, you know, Miller.And that's hypothetical.But if I had to guess, I would guess it's probably Logan Gilbert because honestly,I feel like I have a decent idea of like what teams are capable of making such a package offerand what teams make a lot, which, you know,which teams have the firepower and which teams have the desire slash guts, I guess,
17:01to make such a move.So I have a pretty good idea of what that list is.And it's only three or four teams, I would imagine.And I think Gilbert fits for most of them.So I would say it's probably Gilbert.I agree that it's Gilbert.Yeah.I don't, I just kind of feel it in my bones.
17:20And, you know, Rosenthal did write about Gilbert a couple of nights ago.Again, you know, there aren't a lot of options.There aren't a lot of guys out there that I look at that are.you know, again, as Rosenthal put it last night,of equal or better value to Gilbert.There aren't a ton of bats that fit that criteria, in my opinion.Maybe the mayor is filled differently.But Rosenthal wrote a couple of nights ago about Gilbert and the Cardinals,
17:51which has obviously been a big thing.John Marosi has mostly been the one pushing that,but now Rosenthal's throwing his hat into the ring on that front,that any package the Mariners would even consider from St. Louis for Gilbert would start with Lars Newbar, but that wouldn't be the end of it.So my thought here is, would the Mariners consider a package that includes Neutbar and Nolan Gorman or Brennan Donovan or like Jordan Walker and Dylan Carlson?something like that.Do you think, I mean,first of all, do you think either of those are possible?
18:31And second of all,do you think that that would be worth it to the Mariners in the end?So we'll say this.There seems to be a lot of smoke around the ideathat the Mariners are looking to acquire an impact bat.I mean, we even kind of had like the little,what we consider to be a joke about Nolan Aeronado.Like, oh, the Mariners could make.
18:55sense for Aeronado, like Nolan Aeronado's waving is no trade clause to come to Seattle.But their seat does seem to be a lot of smoke to that idea.But if that's true, is Lars Nupar that big bat?Like, no.And they've already said they're not trading Nupar, which, again, GM say a lot this time ofyear.So, you know, take everything.But again, is Nupar and Donovan, you know, a couple of guys that are going to be three
19:22win players this year?Is that?Does that equal one impact bat in the merit of his eyes?I don't know.I don't know.It's tough because like, first of all, again, we've talked about Nupar before.We like the player.He is not a headliner.
19:40He is a three-win player who might make an all-star team or two in his career.He is not an all-star caliber player.That's like it's semantics, but whatever.I think you guys get what we're trying to say about Nupar.And then it's, I don't think they're going to trade Jordan Walker, who not a tremendous fit for Seattle anyways.He's pretty much a first base only anyway.So Nolan Gorman, not a second baseman, not in the long run, not really good one right now.He's a third baseman.
20:07But I mean, you could fake him at second base for the rest this year.Sure.No problem.I just don't see them doing that in addition to Newpar.So I think that their idea would be like Newpar and Tommy Edmund or Newpar and Dylan Carlson.And to me, no.Like that's just, no.I'm not interested in that.
20:23Yeah.The only thing that the Cardinals have going for them is that they can provide a pitcher back to Seattle,who Seattle can slide into their rotation.Whereas some of the other teams I thought of,they really don't have that guy.Like they don't have a Jordan Montgomery that they could throw in on the back end of this deal to kind of help the Mariners maintain their rotation in 2023.So I still don't see it.I don't see the card.
20:49Again, if they're willing to put Gorman and Nupar on the table,and Montgomery or Flaherty or whoever like okay we can have a conversation butshort of like something like that like I'm not trying Dylan Carlson cannot be the second bestplayer I get for for because that means large new bar is the best and that's not somethingI'm interested in yeah to me any deal that has Carlson as the second best player that I'm eventhinking about that I'm not immediately hanging up on is Jordan Walker is the headliner and I justI don't think the Cardinals are going to do that.And again, like you said, Walker's not a perfect bit for the mirrors.
21:27So, yeah, that, the problem with the Cardinals in general, and like, it's not just with Gilbert.We've talked about this a lot on the show with the Cardinals.It's just even for Miller, even for Wu, I'm not super thrilled by the idea of trading one of those guys for Lars Newpar or Nolan Gorman or.Tommy Edmund or whatever.I just think thatWu or Miller or Geller, they're worth more than that.I think those are fine players or good players that would help you.That certainly fill needs that you have on your roster.
22:06But the Mariners have a very unique situationthat a lot of teams would die for right now,where they have five legit middle of the rotation or better arms.Why give that up?Why get so desperate for a bat and not even that good of a bat, not a star to trade one of those arms and go from an elite situation with your pitching staff to just pretty good?Why do that for Lars Neubar?Why do that for Nolan Corman?Right.
22:41Yeah, I just, I continue to see St. Louis as just not a really good fit for this type of trade.you know again unless they want to overpaywhich is certainly possible teams get desperatebut I just don't see ityou're listening to the lockdownMariners podcast thank you again for making us yourfirst listen again you can catch the Marinersand the Diamondbacks tonight on the Mariners hometown
23:04broadcast with Sirius XM via the SXM appso let'slet's get wild herelet's just get super unhingedfor the content for the viewsrightif they tradedLogan Gilbert
23:19who's the backthat makes sense because to me there's only a couple of guys that I'm evenconsidering especially mid-season right you you guys know how how I feel abouttrading a starter mid-season as opposed to in the winter when there are far moreoptions to fill out that spot that they're vacating and there's one name thatyou and I both kind of landed on last night when we were talking to mugsourselves and that's Randy a Rosarenaof the Tampa Bay raise.
23:54So Gilbert has four years of club control after this year.A Rose Arena has three.And even though that a Rosarena is an established,you know, big league everyday outfielderwho's just made an All-Star teamis kind of a star without being a star, right?He's basically been a three-win player.He's been around what we think,
24:21Lars Newbar could potentially be.He's a bit overrated.But he's,call it what it is.But he's a household name mostly because of the 2020.Playoff right.Yeah.In his year he had like a 158 WRC plus or something like that.
24:34But he's settled into like the 120 to 130 range.Like that's what he is.He's a good player.Yeah.But again,he's like a three win player,which isn't necessarily a star.So to me,
24:49even though that the club control,mostly lines up.You're giving upone extra yearof Gilbertfor three yearsof a Rosarena.The raise
24:59have to throw inmore here.And you wantmostly,I would think,mostly major leagueready orestablished major league
25:10talent on topof a Roserana.And when I lookat the raise,I go,why would they do that?Why would theyshake up their roster
25:20to that?kind of degree when they're right in the hunt for the ALEs.Obviously, they've fallen off a bit here, but a Rosarana is a big piece of what they'redoing right now.Like, why would they trade a Rosarana?Do they actually need Logan Gilbert that bad to do something that drastic?I think they do.Zach Eflin's off getting an MRI.
25:41He's been their best pitcher by a mile.So really, it's McClanahan, who's had his own issues this year.And, you know, Taj Bradley's fine.Like, they, their pitching's fine, but it's not great.It's not carry them through the playoffs.And I think their hope would be is that it would be Eflin, it would be Eflin Gilbert and McClanahan is kind of like how they're going to build this thing.And we have to remember is that the race do have tremendous offensive depth.You know, they still have Harold Ramirez.
26:14They still have Jose Siri.They have Manny Margo.like they have the guys to replace Rosarin,at least just, you know, on the field.They have the guys to replace him.So yeah, I think, you know, when I look at it,I think they look at their pitchingand they're trying to be realistic about it
26:32in a playoff situation.It's not just their start, like Jeffrey Springs is out for the year,Rasmussen is out for the year.But they also have a pretty banged up bullpen too.Like they need pitching.They absolutely need pitching,not just to catch Baltimore,but to be,
26:48to beat Baltimore or to beat, you know, the, the Astros or the Rangers, they need pitching.They need more pitching.So do I think they would probably prefer to trade some prospects for, you know, a pretty good arm?Yeah, they were linked to Lance Land, but they didn't land them.And quite frankly, Logan Gilbert is significantly better than any rental pitcher that's availableat the deadline for them.Yeah.And he's a long-term solution.
27:12So I could see it.And when we talk about, you know, like who is the Logan Gilbert equivalent?of offense, somebody who has a high floor of being at least, you know, a three win player,maybe a four win player, but there's also some ceiling still there.There's still enough ceiling that he could maybe put out a five or six win season at some point.Yeah.Who is that guy?A Rosarena is really the only one I came up with that makes any sense for their team to
27:40trade right now.So yeah, I think, you know, again, this is total speculation.we don't know. Maybe Gilbert's not even the guy, right? Maybe it's, maybe it's Bryce Miller for, I don't know, Bobby Witt, or maybe it's Bryce Miller for Ryan McMahon and Brennan Roger. I don't know, right? We don't know what it is. But I think just based on what we've been able to piece together, based on where all the smoke is coming from and how consistent it is with this one guy, I think Gilbert's probably the guy. And when you look at it, who's the team that needs pitching, has the,ability to put together a packagethat's the key word a package meaning morethan one player who has a bat that is ofroughly similar age andskill set to Logan Gilbert
28:28it's Randy a Rosanana it's Tampa Bayrace so to me that's yeah kind of thewhere I landed and even thenit's not a perfect fit because they don't have thatpitcher to give you to offset theloss of Gilbertnow you know that's notlike the death of any
28:44talks there because even as Rosenthough speculated last night.A lot of teams are apparently interested in TeoscarHernandez. He thought maybe you couldturn around and flip Teoskerfor that pitcher that you needto help, you know, kind of balanceout the loss of Gilbert.
29:00But it's complicated.It's complicated. There is nota perfect fit here when we're talking aboutequal compfor Gilbert. And again,are we doubting the Marinersand raise ability to get creative?Oh, no. I would not
29:17either one of those teams for sure.I feel like if anybody can work through these things,it would be depoto and the Ray's runoff.And maybe there's a third team that, you know, I don't.Who knows?Yeah, it could get very, very unhinged, very quickly.Just throw out like what my initial trade idea was.Yeah, go for it.
29:36Yeah.So my thought is, you know, and Ty and I both were like,I don't even know this is enough.So because again, there's no precedent for trading like Logan Gilbert in the middlethe year. Well, yeah, because like you and I were talking about this last night that the closestwe could think of was the Chris Archer deal from a few years ago. But that was one and a half yearsof Archer who was worse than Gilbert's already better than Archer ever was. And Archer got the,the, uh, the, the, the race Tyler Glassnell, who had already thrown like 80 plus endings at the big
30:10league level. Awesome Meadows who had about two months of, uh, major league experience under hisbelt and then Shane Baz who was a top100 you know consistentprospect across the leagueright like what doesLogan Gilbert get you if you're comparing those twolike it has to be like it has to be moreand it kind of feels like it has to be significantly more right
30:33right I mean I guess you would argue thata Rosarena is significantly morewhen you're acquiring him than Austin Meadows and sothat's some of it sure okay but stilllike you're not doing Gilbert for Roserstraight up at least i wouldn't and according to rosenthal the mariners wouldn't either if this is apackage deal remember so the only thing i thought i was like okay well what else do the race havethat the mariners could use that wouldn't hurt the race too much and the race have some second
30:59base step they have some guys who can play up the middle you know they have taylor walls they havebrouhan they have but you're not trading like taylor walls and brujan aren't going to carry thethe rest of this deal so the only other guy that i thought of was maybe brandon low low low low wow wow wowJosh,Josh Lowe,Nathaniel Lowe,there you go.Yeah.
31:20So yeah,it's Brandon Lowe,who by the way,has his own issues,right?He's got a back thing,hasn't played a ton,hasn't been as good.
31:26By the way,real quick,did the race like consciously do that?Because they also hadNathaniel Lowein their organization.They might have.I mean,
31:34this is the team who wrotethe 8,6,75, 309 lineup,a few years back.So,sure.Yeah,
31:41maybe.But,yeah,it just,Brandon Lowe makes some sense still.And, you know, because he's a left-handed bat, which the Mariners need, because he plays second base, the mayor's need a second baseman.But he's making some money.It's not a huge contract.
31:56It's not a contract that you can't swallow.But it is, you know, a fairly significant sum.And the raise have been fine without him for most of this year.Could that be a guy that the Mariners look to maybe take on and fix?Because as much as he struggled, he's still a significant upgrade over what you've got at second base right now.And then on top of that,I think you're looking at somebody like Jonathan Arandawho is a guy that Thai likes,
32:19but he's a good hiter.He can hit.He's a lot to tie France though.Yeah,and that's the problem is that he's probably first base only.So,you know,even that,
32:29you can kind of look at that and you say,okay,so a Rosarena,Brandon Lau,and Jonathan Oronda for like,sounds like a lot.And it,you know,
32:37it is,it's a good amount.What we're talking about for four years and two months of LoganGilbert.is Gilbert's a top 20 starting pitcher in baseball right now like yeah andLowe has back issues who has a couple years left on a slightly inflated contract who hasn'tbeen really all that good for the last two years and Aranda is a very limited playerat least you know versatility wise and defense why and you're hoping he hits we don't know
33:04that he hasn't hit at the major league level yet yeah like he hasn't produced we think he willbecause he's a good hiter but you got it you got to hit good you know so it's one of thosethings where I don't know if that's enough even, but I don't know how much further you can stretchit. So I don't know how this is part of the reason why I don't think the Mariners are ultimatelygoing to do this deal. I don't know how you, how you value Logan Gilbert. I just, I don't,there's no, like, there's just no comp that we've seen that makes sense to trade Logan Gilbert for.So anything we say, it could be an overpay, it could be an underpay. We just don't know. Right.I do feel like the rays are the best bet.
33:46And I don't know if they have enough.Yeah.So a Rosa Rana is on a 162 game pace for a 3.8 F4 season.That would be, I believe, his career high or would tie his career high.Yeah, he was 3.8 back in 2021 as well.Gilbert's pretty much on the same course right now.He's at 2.3F4.Randy's at 2.5 right now.
34:13But again, extra year club control.Randy is a corner outfielder.He's not an up-the-middle player and Gilbert's a starting pitcher.So the valuations are a lot different here.So I do believe that the raise need to add more here if you're talking about a deal for Gilbert.And again, with where the rays are right now and what the Mariners are going to want back,because they're not going to want prospects back, maybe a prospect on top of whatever.Yeah, like fine.
34:42I think that prospect is going to bean erronda type somebody who's a highlygreat prospect who has played in the majors a little bitand there's probably going to need to be another major league pieceand maybe you know the mayor is throw in Paul Seawald hereand then you get more backyeah or Tom Murphy whateverbut then but then you're going to need even more back from Tampa
35:02for that reason as well soI don't know manit's it's crazyso I'm going to throw out a couple more namesthat I was just likewho would I trade Logan Gilbert for?Who would I be willing to,or not even who would I definitively trade him for?
35:19Just who would I even like pause?Who would you consider to be a headliner in a package?Boba Chet, two years or two and a half years of Boba Chet, maybe.It's a lot of club control to give up.Juan Soto.Only for a year and two months.Yeah, it's basically two postseason runs with Soto and he's probably out of here.99%, 99% he's out of here.
35:42So after that.that.Cedric Mullins.Maybe.Again, there are a lot of good fits here, man.And again, it's because of how unprecedented this would be if they did trade someonelike Logan Gilbert.We do not see this every year.
36:03So I don't know.I don't know.I mean, like we heard from Ryan Divish on sea level.Shout out to a friend of the show, Ben Rennery.He interviewed Ryan Divish about a week ago.Divich told him that the Mariners reportedly were willing to include Gilbert in a package to the Nationals for two and a half years of Soto.So with that knowledge, would they be willing to do Gilbert for one and a half years of Soto?like especially with where they are right now like they're not guaranteed a postseason birth
36:43obviously they would be I mean offensively at least they would be significantly better withJuan Soto like their their chances on that end would improve pretty significantly withJuan Soto but it's it's not perfect it's not perfect I just like I know that's like everyone'sfavorite idea is like oh yeah trade gilbert for for blake snell and won soto but also like is thatenough from seattle do the padres think that's enough because like i don't know how much i would bewilling to tack on to logan gilbert for one and a half years of of of soto and a couple of months ofblake snow i know the answer to that one zero yeah you tack on on your end yeah for a year and twomonths of Juan Soto, I'm not giving you an all-star quality pitcher for four years of that.
37:38Nope, you tack on on your end and get back to me.Yeah.Yeah.And like Blake's now would obviously make up the difference for two months.Yeah.Because again, you're not, when we talk about trades, you are not trading thinking, oh, yeah, I can extend this guy or I can resign this guy.That does not factor into the cost at all.And by the way, that's not just us saying that.
38:04Jerry freaking DePoto said that yesterday.So if you have a problem with that line of logic,don't take it up with us.Take it up with every single person in baseball.Okay.Every GM thinks that way.Every GM.Every single one.
38:17Because they're not stupid.You cannot assume an extension.That's why I'm glad the Angels buy.So we don't have to deal with any more of those BS show.Hey, oh, well, you just sign him to do an extension.You could guarantee me he signs to an extension.I'd give up it.You can't.
38:31You never could.Yeah.Yeah.No.You can't.You can't.And even if you can,that still does not factor into the return.
38:39Even last year with Luis Castillo,they were able to extend Castillo about six weeks after acquiring him.But when they acquired him,they were not trading Noel V.Marte and Edwin and Royal thinking,oh, yeah,we're going to extend Castillo.Like, yeah,
38:53we're more than fine trading these prospects because we can sign Castillo to an extension.No, you are paying for what?he is at the time, which is at the time with Castillo,year and a half of club control, right?You're paying for that.And so with Soto, you're paying for a year and a half.With Selle, you would be paying for, you know, half a year.And I, yeah, I'm just using that for the, whatever.
39:22But yeah, that's not, to me, that's not worth Logan Gilbert.That's not worth four years of Logan Gilbert.a top 20 starter again in major league baseball at worse maybe like he he might be better atworse like yeah yeah um but anyways we got a wrap because we're gonna get yelled at becausewe're about to cross the 40 minute mark but this was fun I enjoy it I enjoy this I last nightI had a lot of fun actually thinking about all this I just again I didn't come to any sort ofconclusion that I feel good about, but we'll see.And we did all this.
40:06As I said, we did all this knowing that this is never going to happen.So we were just wasting our time.We did this knowing we are wasting our time.Well, well.It's fun though.I had fun.Did you have fun?Yeah.
40:20It was interesting.Yeah.That's one way to put it.Yeah.So yeah, this weekend could get pretty crazy.so we'll seeI have a feeling that we'll probably end updoing a show before Monday
40:35before our next scheduled showthat could also just be becausethe mayor has had a big wind down in Arizonaor something fingers crossedhopefully that's the casehopefully we have a couple of reasons to do a show on the weekendor a couple shows on the weekend sobe on the lookout for that but for now
40:51that's going to do it for us here on the lockdownMarys podcast thank you so much for joiningus here for Colby Pat NodeI'm Tiding Gonzalez.Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at LO underscore Mariners.You can follow me at Dame Gonzalez, the C-A-N-E, G-N-ZL-Z,and Colby at C-P-A-E-T-1-1.Follow us on Instagram and TikTok as well over at Locked-on Mariners.
41:10You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode.Thank you again for making us your first listen.Have yourself a beautiful baseball day and a beautiful baseball weekend,and we'll see you next time.Peace.