Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Big Swing For Two Needs? + More Mariners Trade Ideas

Episode Date: November 29, 2024

It's Fan Fiction Friday! Ty and Colby react to and grade your Mariners trade ideas, including deals for Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Alec Bohm, and more.Giveaway Terms & ConditionsCheck out our Patreon!Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @TyDaneGonzalez | @CPat11Follow the show on Bluesky: @lockedonmariners | @tdg | @mlbcolbySupport Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!GametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONMLB for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Download Gametime today. What time is it? Gametime.Omaha SteaksFrom legendary steaks to mouthwatering desserts and more, save fifty percent off site-wide at OmahaSteaks.com. Plus, our listeners get an extra thirty dollars off with Promo Code MLB and a thirty-dollar reward card when you shop early.IbottaDownload the FREE Ibotta app now and use code LOCKEDONMLB to get 100% cash back on your Thanksgiving feast starting November 1.FanDuelYou can start the season with a big return on FanDuel. New customers can place a FIVE DOLLAR bet and you’ll get started with ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS in BONUS BETS - if you win your first FIVE DOLLAR BET ! Visit FANDUEL.COM to get started. FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

It's fan fiction Friday. We're going to dive into your Mariners trade ideas coming up here on the Locked-on Marrars podcast. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Ahoy, Sailors. It is Friday, November 29th, 2024.

This is Taddy Gazzalus and Colby Patnaud for the Locked-on Marers podcast. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. It's fan fiction Friday. We'll be reading and grading your Mariners trade ideas on the 2080s scale. More of the trades hit on things like creativity, uniqueness, and viability, the better the score. Before we get into your trade, shout out to our title sponsor today, Game Time. Download the GameTime app, create an account, use the promo code locked on MLB. That's L-O-C-K-E-O-N-M-L-B for $20 off your first purchase.

And if you want to hear from me and Colby, even more, and help support the show, check out our Patreon. All you have to do is click the link in the description of this episode. Hope you all had a happy Thanksgiving. Let's kick things off here on Fan Fiction Friday with a deal from Eudonis Haslam, who I don't know if he listened to last week's episode because Colby went on a long rant about his target and this particular trade, Louisa Rise. It's Gregory Santos and Trent Thornton for Louisa Rise.

It's going to cost, I think, $14 million as his projection. objected ARB number. So you want to spend all of your money on a slap hitting first base only? Pass, hard pass. I can do that and spend like, and get like a 65% discount just by signing Justin Turner. I'm fine.

So I don't want to lose the rise at all. I'm so out on that idea. I don't think he's very good. He's won the hit, he won the batting title last year and had a 1.3 war. to go for it. Who cares if you're not, if you're just hitting singles at it at first base, you're not that valuable. Uh, so yeah, um, you know, at Santos and Thornton, if they did that, I'd be like, okay, whatever, but you better have a lot more money, uh, than you, then you kind of,

we kind of assume you do, uh, because spending pretty much all of it on a guy who can only hit singles doesn't do it for me. So yeah, I'd much rather have the Nico Horner types if I'm going to spend 10 plus million dollars on one player. So yeah, not a fan of a rise. Don't think he's a good target at all. The cost doesn't really matter. I don't think the Padres would do this, but the Padres, and I think we've talked about this in previous episodes,

they're kind of in a weird spot because they apparently had to take out. I think the total was about $50 million in loans to make ends meet on the baseball operation front. And Major League Baseball was not too. happy with the former owner, who is no longer with us. They weren't too happy that he did that. And now there are some murmurs that they may be kind of forced to shed some payroll from the league because they did this loan thing. It's all pretty messy. And I don't know the finer details of it, but that's what I've heard is that, you know, there was the loan that they had to take out.

and, you know, Major League Baseball, the league didn't like it. So now they're not going to be allowed to do it again. And they've already got so much committed in payroll. So they're going to have to scale back. And so trading one year of a rise is like $14 million or whatever, $12 million bucks makes sense to them. That would certainly be a guy I would try to trade if I had to pare down my payroll a little bit. So yeah, the Padres are interesting.

They do have a couple of pieces that would make sense for Seattle. but again, Seattle also has some money issues. So, you know, it's kind of a tight fit, unfortunately. If you take money out of the equation, like, would I trade two relievers for Luis RISE as much as I hate them? Sure. Would I spend my entire, you know, available budget on Luis Rize? No, absolutely not.

So, you know, tough trade to grade here. So I guess I'll just kind of go like 40, 3540. I don't know. Yeah. So let's assume. that they have $60 million like Adam Jude said, right? Roughly is what he said.

Sure. So pretty much what you said, I mean, a rise is someone that does one thing extremely well and a lot of things very poorly. So is that the guy that I want to spend pretty much the majority of my budget on? Is that the one guy? Like, if I'm going to spend

money on one player this offseason, is Luis Arise, the guy that I want to spend, spend all my money essentially on. Like, I guess my question would be like, does Luis Arise actually move the needle far enough? Like, if you acquire Luis Arise and just get the band back together from last year, are you significantly better than you played before? If he played third or second, then yes. But he doesn't.

He doesn't play second anymore. So, yeah, I think I would rather just sacrifice, you know, four. to 50 points of batting average to sign Justin Turner for like $6 million and then do something else. At third, you know, use the rest of my money to do other things at like second or third or in the bullpen or at DH or what have you. Because it's not a rise versus Turner. It's a rise versus Turner and what else you can get that you wouldn't be able to get if you just signed a rise or traded for a rise. Yeah. So, yeah, again, assuming that.

that that's all the money that they have, then the answer is no for me on a rise, just for what that would mean taking on his money. But in a vacuum, Santos and Thornton for a rise, I would,

I would do that. Don't know that the Padres would, but yeah. Yeah, that's the other thing too, right? It's like, I don't think the Padres would do that. So, I don't know, this is probably like a 40 to me. I think that's the best I can give it. it's just like I mean again if they if they trade if they end up being able to trade

Luis Castillo everybody's trade looks different right but we obviously can't assume that and if it happens and we do another fan fiction Friday after that then yeah we'll obviously change the way we look at every single deal but until a move actually happens the roster based on how it is set up right now I'm not interested in doing this deal unless the Padres are eating a significant chunk of the money. And at that point, it's going to cost you more and more and more. So, yeah, it is a pass not only because of the player, but also because of the situation that the front office has to deal with. Next straight here from Campbell, Mitch Hanigur for Jamir Candelario.

So Candelario has two guaranteed years left. There's a club option for 2027. with a $3 million buyout. So you're on the hook for $30 million guaranteed with Candelario. Yeah. So this is an idea that I see a lot of when it comes to Mitch Hanager is trading one year of Hanager for a much larger, well, not much, but for a longer contract, right, for two years, three years. Maybe a player that you think is, like, he's coming off of a bad year, but you think has a better chance of bouncing back than Hanigar. And I do think that Candelario, there is a much better chance of him bouncing back in 2025.

than Hanager also he can play at a couple of spots that you have a need at I don't know I'm a little hesitant on Candelario though and generally I don't like the idea of trading one year of Hanager for two years or three years of a guy coming off of a bad year as well even if you do think there's a better chance of them bouncing back candelario is weird like he had two really good years Detroit. He had the really good bounce back year the year prior when he was in Washington and got

traded to Chicago. But he didn't hit a great American ballpark and that sends up some red flags for me. And if he doesn't bounce back, then I'm on the hook. I'm in the same position that I'm in right now with Hanager for at least another year. Basically the same amount of money because again, it's going to be I think it's $12 million in 2026 plus the buyout. So $15 million. It seems like Hanager is like anywhere between 15 and a half to 17 and a half. We're still not like completely sure about that. But yeah, I think I'd just rather eat it. I'd just rather eat Hanager's contract for the year and just wash my hands of that.

By the time 2026 rolls around. Right. Because you're not actually saving any money by making this trade. Because the salaries for this year like, I don't know, maybe there's like a million dollar difference or whatever. but then there is now you're committed to at least you know 12 million dollars the year after that you wouldn't be otherwise so uh you know kicking the can down the road without significant savings in year one kind of defeats the purpose uh so like if both of these guys were on one year deals then like fine yeah that makes sense for the mariners does it make sense for the reds i don't know

probably not uh but this was a pretty common theme i saw this in a lot of the trade submitted and this is why I picked this one in particular. But just in general, if you guys are trying to salary dump or salary swap, you have to be careful here because it's highly unlikely that the Mariners' financial constraints will go away next offseason. So, you know, trading a bad contract, a one-year bad contract for a multi-year bad contract really defeats the purpose, right? trading Garber for a guy with two years and $30 million doesn't really help you. Trading Hanager for a guy with two years and $30 million doesn't really help you. Unless you're really confident that guy can help you this year.

And I'm not confident that Candelario can do that. So, yeah, I'm out on this idea, but just in general, I don't like the idea of trading Mitch Hanager for a different bad contract. When in one year's time, I can just wipe my hands of the $17 million. Yeah, I get it. You're trying to make a better use of the money. Right, and the roster spot. And it's possible that Candelario would be a much better use of the money.

But, yeah, I don't know. The risk there is that, again, you wind up being in the same exact spot you're in right now for an additional year. And we're doing the same thing next offseason just with a different player. Yeah, and because that feels pretty real that risk. I think I'm out. I'm just going to eat the Hanager contract. Yeah, I would agree. Plus, I don't think the Reds would do this either.

I don't think they view Hanigur is a better bet than Candelario. But they might do it because they want to get out of the contract, the extra year of the contract. A year. Yeah, a year earlier. So, yeah, I think valuation-wise, this is probably like a 50. I think it's like fair. If both teams are trying to, you know,

the Reds are trying to save money for 2026. the Mariners are trying to get, you know, out of this, this, you know, player who doesn't fit on this roster at all without spending significant prospect resources to get them off the roster. That's all fine. But it's the 2026 year where the mayors basically have a high probability of doing the exact same thing again and again. That leads me to drop this down to like a 40. I just, I'm not a fan of the idea of trading one year of Hanager for two years of, you know, somebody making Hanager. money. I just, I'm not, I'm not interested in that. Yeah. So I'm going to give this a 35. Right. Unless I'm getting something else back. Like if it's Candelario and. But the Reds aren't going to do that.

No, no, no. I know. That that defeats the purpose for the Reds. So yeah, like there are scenarios where you could trade Hanager for a guy making Hanneger money over multiple years, but they almost always involve you getting something in addition to that player back. And that just kind of defeats the purpose for the other so I'd say it's unlikely. All right, we're going to be looking at more of your trades here in just a moment, but first a reminder, this episode of the Locktime Marreras podcast is once again brought to you by game time. So I used to live in New Mexico, and down in New Mexico, there are zero pro sports teams, and a lot of bands and artists I listen to skip going there more often than not.

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Before we get back into your trades here on Fan Fiction Friday, Colby is going to give you one last reminder about our giveaway. That's going to be ending over the course of the weekend. We'll be announcing winners next week. So, yeah, where do we stand, Colby? And, you know, is there a chance that we might be able to give away even more stuff before the giveaway ends? I mean, there's a chance, but, you know,

I'm not holding out much hope for these lazy people. But, yeah, we're doing a giveaway, guys. You all know this by now, I'm sure, I hope. But yeah, today is the last video of our giveaway, which means this is the last video, which you can enter to win some of my stuff. And maybe, just maybe some of Thai stuff as well, entering is very simple.

All you have to do, subscribe to the YouTube channel, leave a comment on any of the videos from last week or this week. You can leave comments on every single video from the last two weeks, and those all count as one entry. And sometime next week,

probably Tuesday, we will draw the winners and we'll announce them here on the show. What's already going to happen here is somebody is definitely going to walk away with this Mitch Hanager autograph card. Again, the glare, sorry. Somebody's definitely going to walk away with this Andres Munoz autograph card.

We are about 30 subs away from adding this to the mix, which is a Mike Cameron autograph card and a $25 gift certificate to Simply Seattle, which comes out of Tye's pocket. So if you want to make Tye pay $25, we need 29 subs this weekend before Monday's video. So there you go. If you guys go really, really crazy, and we get to $2. 12.4k over the weekend. We have this Victor Robles numbered autograph card. Such a sick card.

It's a gorgeous card. And we get to 12.5K by some miracle. I will give away this Cal Raleigh autograph card. And Ty will give you a $50 gift certificate to Simply Seattle where you can cop some cool new swag. So was that from Simply Seattle? This is from Simply Seattle. This is from Simply Seattle. I might have to give me one of those.

Yeah. They have a Seahawks one too. which is a little less audacious, but it's cool. So yeah, if you guys go crazy, Ty might have to give away $75 worth of simply Seattle stuff. And I'll have to give away some cards from,

you know, including a player that everybody claims to be their favorite, but our subscriber count sure doesn't seem to back that up. So I guess after hearing his top five favorite Thanksgiving foods, maybe, you know, I'm just saying like it's really not that big of a deal for me, because, oh, no, I get to keep a Cal Raleigh and Victor Robles autograph card. Darn.

I guess my collection just keeps getting better and better. But, yeah, so you guys have until technically Monday at midnight is the cutoff. So, yeah, the drawing will be held on or about December 2nd. I'm thinking probably December 3rd since Monday is already a very long episode for us. But anyways, yes, terms. and conditions in the description down below. Again, subscribe to the channel, leave a comment on any of the videos from this week or last week.

If you leave a comment on all the videos from the last two weeks, I believe you get nine separate entries to try and win a couple of cards. And we'll see, maybe even some gift certificates. So it's all on you guys now. No pressure. Thank you, everyone who has entered, who's told a friend to come over and subscribe and leave a comment and all that good stuff.

continue to do so. We would never advocate for you making multiple accounts. That would be wrong. That would be terrible. Mm-hmm. That would be the worst thing we could pot. Do not do it. Yeah, totally.

Also, hey, if you just listen to the show on podcast platforms, just head on over to YouTube. Create an account. Use a fake email. Who cares? Leave a comment and subscribe to the channel. I'm telling you, this Victor Roblo is. is beautiful. It's worth it.

It's worth it. Yeah. All right, let's get back into your trades here on Fan Fiction Friday. Garrett has a deal here. It's a three-team deal with the Phillies and the White Sox. Michael Morales, Ty Pete, Justin Crawford, and Mick Abel to the White Sox, Garrett Crochet to the Phillies and Alec Bohm to the mayor. So the important thing here is really, it's Morales and Pete for Alec Bohm for the

errors. Yeah. We got lots of three team trades in this week's. They are very hard to put together. They are very hard to put together. They're also pretty hard to follow because part of our criteria is like realism. And if there's another team, we have to consider would they do this trade. Right. So the three team deals, the more players you guys put in them, the harder they are for us to break down, which means it's harder for us. We only have, you know, 30, 35 minutes to break down as many trades as we can so just a heads up in the future if you're going to put in a three team trade you really need to outline it very clearly uh and honestly the fewer players the more likely it is that you're going to get picked uh and this is why this is a three team deal that i picked because it's very simple to

follow and i also think it's fairly accurate like i i think it's okay like i don't think this is like wild and and way out there um i have concerns about bomb uh mainly that he is coming off a career year, which he was a three and a half one player. He's never even been a two-win player before. And a big chunk of that increase in his value came off of vast improvement statistically or using the metrics of his defense. In the past, he's been a well below average third baseman. This last year, he was a really good third baseman.

And defensive metrics have a tendency to fluctuate in a one-year sample size. So I'm a little concerned about Bome, whether or not he can repeat that. Because if he's a bad third baseman, while he's a pretty good hitter, he's not a great hitter. And if he's a bad third baseman, he's at most a two-win player. Do I want to give up Tai Pete for a two-win player? Like, not for two years of a two-one player, and kind of expensive one, too? Not really. I really like Tai Pete.

But if the mayor's want to take a shot. Yeah, if the mayor's want to take a shot on, on Boehm, and it just costs him Pete and Morales, yeah, fine. Like, that is an appropriate price to pay for the rest. risk, I think. Now, the white socks, they're getting able, who's, his stock has, it's dropped. It's died a lot. Yeah. So that, that leads me to, I don't know this is going to be enough. Yeah, I don't, like Justin Crawford, really good prospect. I don't know if that's necessarily the headliner that the, uh, the white socks want back for crochet.

right uh i i i just wonder if the like if the white socks wants like a pitching prospect in this deal i don't know that abel and morales is going to be enough to overcome they're not being like a blue chip pitching prospect in this deal because abel that's what he was built up to be but his stock has really tumbled uh so i don't know if the white socks think they can fix that or not uh and that's kind of the big X factor here. How do the White Sox feel about Mick Abel? Because crochet to the Phillies, it absolutely makes sense, sure. And they want to trade out with Baum anyways. And we know that Dunbrowski will be aggressive with the prospects. So I think the Phillies would do this. I think the Mariners would take a shot on Boehm at this price. I just not sure if Abel and Morales are good enough. I know Morales

isn't enough alone to headline the pitching return for Chicago. But I don't know if the White Sox would view able as, you know, still a, a, you know, big part of a trade return. Because in this package, he kind of has to be viewed as like the second, uh, the second headliner, right. Well, and if you're the white socks, aren't you going like, we want Andrew Painter. Yeah. Or nothing. Right. And if it's Painter and Crawford, uh, coming from the Phillies for Crochet, uh, that's probably they, they could do that. Like that, that, that, feels more like in the ballpark but at that point

do the Phillies kind of go like no no the Mariners and at that well and at that point are the Phillies still trying to trade boom or they're like yeah we'll give you painter and Crawford but that's it like that's all we're giving you crochet I mean it does feel like they

really want to trade foam like I'm at the point right now where I'd be pretty surprised at bone was with the Phillies next year but they're going to trade boom for the sake of finishing off a crochet deal separately right and get more prospects for him uh so yeah it's it's a little bit of a balancing act here again this is why three team deals are really difficult uh i think you have two sides two of the three teams i would say yeah they that feels like something they would they would do uh i'm just

not sure of the white socks are getting enough for crochet because really it's crochet is it like robert they really want to trade him but also his value is is tanked so like yeah crochet is the last huge piece the white socks have to trade so they're going to want to nail it so i think they would hold out for painter and at that point you know it doesn't mean that bone and the and the mariners couldn't work out of trade or the Phillies and the mayor's going to work out a separate trade but yeah so i'll give this a 50 uh three team deal uh are hard and i feel like you're in the ballpark for all three teams so it just you know the mic abel thing makes it a little bit of a toss up to me for the white socks so i'll go 50 55 somewhere in that range

I'll go 50. Yeah, it's pretty good. John Stanton hates the Mariners as a deal. It's also just a statement. The Mariners get Bo Bichette from the Toronto Blue Jays for Mitch Garber, Tiley Locklear, and Jeter Martinez. So Garver's in here to offset some of the money from Bichette. Not all the money, but most of it. Locklear Martinez, to me, that's not enough.

of a return to the Blue Jays for them essentially eating the Bichette money. Yeah, we talked about this back in October. Like we talked about this idea on CTZ and I believe also I'm locked on a couple weeks later. So like we floated this idea at least five, six weeks ago to you guys of trading, either using Hanager or Garber, mostly Hanager to kind of offset the Bichet money, which would then allow the Blue Jays to kind of get fair value for what Boba Shett was in 22 and 23, not so much what he was in 24 because the real issue with acquiring Boba Shed is that he's coming off of that bad season in 2024 and he's making a ton of money.

Well, if you eliminate the money problem, then you can essentially ask for what he would have been worth in 2023, obviously minus a little bit because he's only going to have one year club control versus two. I don't think this is enough. I, Locklear to the Blue Jays is meaningless, especially if they really are going to try and keep Vlad Jr. around long term, Lockler is meaningless. So he's out of this deal. It doesn't help you at all. I think for one year of Bo Bichette, you're looking at, assuming, again, one year of

Boba Chet at like what, $3 million after you trade Garber. I think you're probably looking at Cole Young. Maybe you can get away with the Harry Ford and Michael, Michael Oroyo type of thing. But I think you're probably looking at Cole Young. And I'm not willing to do that. Harry Ford, I would, we could have conversations about us, the headliner. Arroyo, prefer not, but, you know. Yeah.

So, yeah, I just. Simply put, though, this isn't, this isn't enough. The steel isn't enough if you're including Garver or Hanager. It doesn't really matter in this deal. Locklear just doesn't help the Blue Jays at all. Yeah. 30. Yeah. Again, the idea behind it, we talked about it. We like the idea behind it. But it just, it's not the right players. It's, it's, basically this is what you'd have to pay if you were taking on all of the Shets contract.

Yeah. If you're taking on just, you know, 10% of it, it's going to cost a lot more of this. So yeah, 30, 35. Yeah. All right. We got a couple more of your trades to go over in just a moment. But first, a reminder of this episode of the Locktime Errors podcast is brought to you by Fan. Get ready to tackle the NFL action with Fandul, America's number one sportsbook, because right now new customers can bet $5 and get $150 back in bonus bets if you win. The Fandual Sportsbook app gives you everything you need to place live bets on the NFL all in one place. So when you get a hunch in the middle of the game, you can check out the latest stats, view live play-by-play, and so much more on the same page where you place your bets. Just visit Fandual.com to join today.

You'll get started with $150 in bonus bets if you win your first $5 bet. That's Fandul.com. Never waste a hunch and make every moment more with Fanduel, an official sportsbook partner of the NFL. And you're listening to the Locked-on Mariners podcast. It is fan fiction Friday. We're going over some of your Mariners trade ideas. We've got a couple more to look at here. This one comes from Mark, Brandon Lau, and Yondi Diaz to Seattle for Ryan Bliss,

Tyler Locklear, Harry Ford, and Jeter Martinez. How much money does this add up to? 22, I think. 22 million bucks. Yeah, which is potentially more than the mayor has to spend this off-season. So this trade might be dead right there.

Yeah, could be. But in a vacuum, Colby, um, Bliss, Locklear, Ford, and Martinez. Do you think that's enough for Lau and Diaz? There was a report from Francis from Merritt. who again broke the Randia Rosarana trade back around the deadline. He's pretty dialed in.

Yeah, he says that. Most of his stuff is really solid. Yeah, he said that Diaz is going to be talked about at the winter meetings, and the Rays are looking for two prospects and a major league player, which could mean anything on both fronts. Yeah. So throw in Lau into the mix here for those four guys. You think that gets it done?

No, I don't think so. It's a little tough to say. Lough has an option after this year. I think Diaz does as well, if I'm not mistaken. Yeah, I believe so. So I think they're both player option or team options as well. So, yeah, you're getting potential club control here. You are solving first base and second base.

One thing to keep in mind is that this makes Santana or Turner basically, you can't have Diaz and Santana and Turner on the same roster. They just don't fit together. Not with Hanager on the bench, not with Garver already on the bench, not with Rayleigh. It just doesn't fit that well. So if the mayors really want to bring in that leadership thing,

and it's either Santana or Turner, they're not going to be interested in Yondi Diaz, unless they can make another trade, which is possible. But, yeah, Lowe talked a lot, makes some sense at second base, could even fill in a third base. And Diaz, you know, I think his bat would play really well. in Seattle.

But there are some factors to consider here. So, yeah, not the least of which is the $22 million that this would add to payroll, which is apparently, you know, more than the Mariners have to spend all winter. So yeah, you know, if it's a major leaguer and two prospects for Diaz, then what we're talking about, maybe the race consider Locklear or Bliss to be a major leaguer. so it's you know locklear ford and jeter martinez and a vacuum yeah yeah i think i'd probably pay that but then it's just bliss straight up for allow i'd pay it i don't know if that's going to do the raise any good because the rays are pretty set with middle infielders uh which is why they're you know

willing to trade some of their middle infielders uh so if you added gregory santo's what do you think that does for the deal? Not much because you're still five, six million bucks over budget, but taking the money out of it. Yeah, I probably feel like I feel like that probably works because he's definitely a major leaguer that the raise

would look at. So in a way, then it becomes Ford, Santos, and Martinez for Yondi and then it's Bliss and Locklear for Brandon Lowe. it's pretty aggressive but I think that's what it's going to take to get a deal like this done and obviously it would take ownership opening up the pockets a little bit so yeah I feel like you know it's not bad but I feel like it's just a little bit off the mark yeah I think I think you're a piece short I think all the pieces evolved are good and like work sure but uh yeah I think

you're one one and a half pieces short of the mark here depending on what the one piece is like Santos might be enough to bridge the gap in entirely. Somebody like, you know, Michael Morales probably isn't enough to bridge the gas, but maybe, who knows. So yeah,

I'd give this one like a 45, I think, as it is right now. Like, it's not out there, but the money is a factor here. The roster construction thing is a, is a factor here with what they want to do with Turner or Santana.

I'd prefer they just get the better hitter, which would be Yondi, but obviously they want to get one of those. two leadership type of guys in here. So, yeah, I'd say 45. Yeah, I'll go 50 on this. Yeah, it's good. It's solid.

All right, last deal of the day comes from Ian. Mariners get Gavin Lux from the Dodgers for Gregory Santos and Reed Van Scoder. Well, Van Scoder is meaningless in this deal, so you can lop him off. So it's Santos for Lux. Right. It's pretty interesting. Lux is a guy that, like, the baseball, baseball world has waited for a breakout from for like four years and it's just never going to come.

Like we just have to accept Gavin Lux is who he is, which is fine. You know, can play second base. That's obviously a position of need for the Mariners. He is pretty young, 27, just turned 27 last week. So, you know, that obviously helps a little bit here. You're only getting in for two years. Santos has four. years of club control of so you are losing a little bit there just in terms of club control uh lux

doesn't really slug he's not a great defender at second i think at best he's fringe average um so yeah i mean in 2020 2020 he was in 113 w rc plus miss all of 2023 with a torn ACL uh was acel or ankle whatever happened spring training he missed all is ACL yeah uh then last year first year back after you know layoff 100 WRC plus he was a one and a half one player defense suffered a little bit which makes sense you know coming off of the knee injury so he might bounce back to average 251 320 383 like at second base that's fine he walks a good amount uh you know above league average not insane but career 9.7% walk rate k rate 22.2% i think that's right at major league average just not a lot a pop here career high 10 home runs um so yeah it it's lux is fine Santos probably carries

a little more upside uh because Santos has a chance to be like a legit high leverage relief type uh but obviously he's only done it once there are injuries in his past he's coming off that year uh the other thing keep in mind here is that lux is in arbitration again you get him for two years. Santos isn't in arbitration yet. You get him for four years. So interesting deal, certainly. And Lux is kind of a popular like Mariners like trade target. And again, the idea that like, yeah, there's more in the tank with Gavin Lux. And it's like, cool. It's been four years. He's played parts or most of four seasons in the big leagues. And his career high in home runs is 10. He's not even hitting a ton of doubles either. He's not hitting for a super.

high average. Like, he's fine. Like, Gavin Lux is a fine player. Santos. Like, it's, it's fun. If they make this trade, like, I'm like, okay, that's fine. I'm conflicted on this deal. Same for a multitude of reasons.

Because, like, I'm not sure if Santos is enough for the Dodgers for Gavin Lux. I'm not sure if I really want Gavin Lux. I get the idea behind it. There's some Brennan Rogers vibes here, except, you know, he's not a coarse field merchant like bernan rogers is so yeah so i'm just going to give this a 50 i i don't really know how to feel about it yeah feels appropriately like yeah you know yeah look if it on the one hand like yeah okay i get it i you can see the vision like i'm not i'm not losing sleepover trading Gregory Santos

to take a shot at second base. I'm not. No. And Lux is a very interesting shot and there is upside there. I also don't necessarily know if the Dodgers would do this considering the year that Santos is coming off of and all the other reasons that you talked about. We also can't say they definitely won't

because Lux is not really a key player for them. You know what? It's not provoking enough 55. Sure. It's one of those deals where you're just like, it's the living embodiment of that like Larry David gift where he's like, you know, like, yeah, yeah, like fine, whatever. Like, Lux is only going to make $2.7 million this year. So it's just $2 million for a potential second base option. And if he, if you can figure something out with him, right? Like if you can unlock something, he's an average defensive second baseman who's a 115 W. W. RAC plus guy, it's probably a three, three and a half one player and you get him for two years. And even if he plays really well this year because of the injury and because of where he's at, and as an ARB two guy, his ARP three numbers probably going to be five, six million bucks

at most. And that's if he has a good year, like you might have a multi-year solution here at second base, or third base or you could trade him next winner if Cole Young's ready. So yeah, it's interesting. I'll go 55. All right. So that is going to do it for us. Thank you all for all of your trades.

Really appreciate it. Again, I hope you guys had a wonderful holiday. Barring the mayor is doing anything over the next 36-ish hours. That's going to wrap things up for the month of November for us. Should be a pretty interesting month of December here on the show. Could be very fun. We're going to have the Roki Sasaki Pursuit to talk about. officially kicked off December 15th.

Yep. Winter meetings. I assume the mirrors are going to do something. They're going to make some sort of move, at least one. I would be pretty surprised if we didn't have one significant move done before Christmas. Yeah. We should also start to prep you guys now. We will be transitioning to three shows a week midway through December.

So in about two weeks. The week of December 16th. Right. The day after Roki Sasaki is posted, we think is when it'll be posted. We will transition to three shows a week. And I think we'll probably keep the same schedule we did last year, which is Monday, Wednesday, Friday, every other day. With obviously exceptions, if they do something on a Tuesday, we'll hop on and, you know, all that. But I think that's the plan for now.

But start to prep yourselves. Yeah, that will go from five days a week to three days a week here. And that's temporary. It's for those of you that are new. Pitches and catchers report. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

Our winter schedule is from the winter meetings to pitchers and catchers, three shows a week. From pitchers and catchers until the next winter meeting. Yeah. Five shows week. Mostly. Sometimes there's four, but mostly five shows a week.

Yeah. All right. So thank you so much for joining us here on the lockdown Marreras podcast for Colby Patnot. I'm Tiding Azealous. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L.O. underscore Merriors. You can follow me at Tidinga Zollis and Colby at C-Pat 11.

That's C-Pat. 1.1. We're also on Blue Sky. You can follow me at TDG, Colby at MLB Colby, and the show at Locked-on Mariners. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day and a beautiful baseball weekend, and we'll see you next time. Peace. Subscribe.