Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Bold Predictions For the Mariners' 2023 Season

Episode Date: March 29, 2023

We are one sleep away from Opening Day and Colby and Ty are ready to share some BOLD predictions about the upcoming 2023 season. Or maybe they're not bold, that is really up to you. But Colby and Ty have some thoughts on Jarred Kelenic, Robbie Ray, George Kirby, Julio Rodriguez, and more!We’re raising money for Feeding America! 34 million Americans are food insecure, including 9 million children. Feeding America turns every dollar raised into 10 delicious meals to feed the hungry. We have set up a direct donation fund you can access by heading to https://teamfeed.feedingamerica.org/participant/13390 If you can’t donate, remember that we are donating 10 cents for every new YouTube subscriber we gain in the next month. By hitting the subscribe button, you’re donating one meal to somebody suffering from hunger!Be sure to follow or subscribe to Locked On Mariners wherever you prefer your podcasts! For questions and other inquiries, email: [e-mail] the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @danegnzlz | @CPat11For more of Ty and Colby, check out their Patreon: patreon.com/controlthezone/FanDuelMake Every Moment More. Don’t miss the chance to get your No Sweat First Bet up to ONE THOUSAND DOLLARS in Bonus Bets when you go FanDuel.com/LOCKEDON.Ultimate Pro Baseball GMTo download the game just visit probaseballgm.com or look it up on the app stores. Our listeners get a 100% free boost to their franchise when using the promo LOCKEDON (ALL CAPS) in the game store.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

It's opening day Eve, and to celebrate Colby and I are going to make three bold predictions each for the Mariners' 2023 season. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners, your daily Seattle Mariners podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. It is Wednesday, March 29th, 2023. This is Tadning Gazzalus and Colby Patnaud for the Lockdown Mariners podcast. Brought to you by FanDuel, the official sportsbook partner of the Lockdown Podcast Network. Make every moment more of his official. Bandwool.com slash locked on today to get started.

Thank you so much for making us your first listen. Subscribe, like, internal alerts if you're watching on YouTube, or subscribe and leave a five-star review on your preferred podcast platform if you like what you hear. And if you want to hear from us even more, please consider signing up for our Patreon by scanning the QR code right above my head. The link as well as our social accounts is also in the description below. And on the show today, Colby and I are each going to make three bold predictions for the Mariners' upcoming season.

and be sure to stick around until the middle of the show to find out how you can win a signed big dumper card and also help get some meals to those in need. But Colby, it is the day before the big day, opening day. Louise Castillo versus Shane Bieber, Bieber, the

Mariners versus the guardians very, very exciting. We're going to be previewing that game. We're going to be doing our overall regular season, you know, MLB wide preview and Mariners preview on tomorrow's episode. But today we're going get into some bold predictions. We're going to be doing three apiece, one per segment,

and I'll start with you. What's your first bold prediction for the Mariners in 2023? Interesting, starting with me. Okay. That's right. I'm putting the ball in your court. Okay. Interesting. Interesting. Well, here's the thing, right? If I do mine first, right? And we get to like four minutes, you're going to be like, well, thanks for letting me talk. So here you go. I'm letting you talk. No, because this is the topic I don't care that much about. So you can talk away. all right how spicy do you want the first one to be I think we should go like

because I'm going to save my spiciest for last so so let's let's like let's be mild here we'll go mild medium and hot okay um so I guess mild

I almost struggle to say this is a bold prediction but I'm going to throw it out there anyways Julio Rodriguez wins American League MVP, right? Like that's just such an easy one. All right. And I think it's pretty mild, right? Like, it's definitely not hot, hot because he's Julio. You know, he can do whatever he wants.

So, yeah, I think- It's fairly bold because, like, he has to be out of an attorney, and Otani and Yorna and all those guys. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Yeah, so, yeah, I just feel like when we look at what Julio is, the national media essentially is paying attention. and everybody knows who Julio is.

There is no introduction needed. He's quickly becoming the face of baseball, both him and Otani. And he actually likes that spotlight. He craves it. He doesn't shy away from it. And so I think that's going to help. The Mariners are going to be good this year, I think, obviously. So that helps, even though it really shouldn't matter.

But I think that'll help. Julio hit 28 home runs last year and basically, you know, two months short of a full season. When you think about it, because April, he was so terrible. He didn't hit any. And then he missed about 30 games with injury. So I think he could hit, you know, could push 35, 40 home runs. The steals will see he can certainly steal 40 bags.

I don't know how aggressive the Mariners want to be in that avenue just because, you know, you run the risk of Julio getting hurt and you certainly don't want to do that. So if they let him run, I think he's going to win MVP. I think he's going to hit about 280, probably 360, 370 on base. I think the slugging is going to go up a little bit. I think you're going to see, you know, 35 home runs. He's going to score a ton of runs in this lineup. He's going to be an above average defender.

I think it's basically we're going to look at and say like, oh, yeah, he had a Mike Trout type of year. So Julio's going to be a eight-win player this year. All right. I like it. I like it. Very cool. My first two bold predictions could go in this spot if we're thinking mild. The second one, the one that I'm not going to do here,

I only consider it to be fairly mild because we've talked so much about it. A little hint for you guys. You probably know what we're talking about. But my first bowl prediction actually has to do with the All-Star game. I'm going to say the Mariners have six All-Stars this year. Ullio Rodriguez, George Kirby, de Oscar Hernandez, Andres Munoz, Thai France,

and Colby Robbie Robbie Robbie Ray you've sold me on it I believe the velocity The velocity is there now

To start the year The Splitter Looks like it's actually a viable pitch That should help him Because again I said this when we were doing our pitching preview

That I don't think Of all these guys Not just with the Mariners But around the league that have adopted a splitter this off season, I don't think that pitch benefits anyone more than Robbie Ray, having something that breaks away from Ritey's. It's...

I'd say Logan Gilbert, but yeah, it definitely would help. I mean, but Gilbert already had kind of a change-up anyway, so it's like... Does he? I mean, that's up for debate. But, yeah, I just... Look, I just don't think that... I think this adds an element to,

Robbie's repertoire that he just didn't have. And I think that it could potentially take him to the next level to have an even better season than the year that he actually won the SIE young. And so, yeah, I think he's going to get off to a hot start here and actually get involved in the All-Star game. I know Luis Castillo gets admitted here. And maybe that's also kind of a little bit of a bold prediction that Luis Castillo does not make the All-Star game. But, I mean, pitcher slots are so limited in the All-Star game. I feel like if the Mariners are going to get pitchers in, at most they're probably only going to get two,

at least for the starters. And I have three overall here with Munoz as one of the few relievers to get in. And yeah, Julio, obvious. Tay Oscar, I think that's pretty obvious as long as he stays healthy. Thai France is interesting, right? Spicey. Yeah, it's spicy.

A lot of good first baseman. I mean, he should have got in without being a reserve last year. Yeah. And I don't think that he's necessarily going to get off to as hot of a start as he did last year, but I think he's just going to be consistent, man. I think he's going to put up the high average. He's going to get on base a lot.

And I think he's going to hit for more power this year, too. We talked about that a little bit last week as well. So, yeah, I think the Mariners are going to get six guys in the All-Star game in front of their home crowd in Seattle. All right. All right. So we got more bold predictions coming up here in just a moment. But real quick, a reminder,

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So don't miss the chance to get your no sweat first bet up to $1,000 in bonus bets when you go to Fandual.com. slash locked on. That's fanduil.com slash L-O-C-K-E-O-N to learn more. Make every moment more with Fanduel an official sports betting partner of the NBA. And you're listening to the Lockdown Mariners podcast. Thank you again for making us your first listen. So, Colby, you're giving away another one of your cards. Tell the folks what you're giving away and how they can win that. Yeah. So giveaways are pretty simple. Giving away this autographed cow rally card, big dumper, you know, the guy with the second biggest hit in Mariners franchise history, giving away that card to enter is very simple.

It's just like the last few giveaways we've done. All you have to do is subscribe to the channel, leave a comment, any comment you want in the, in the comment section of the videos, any video you want. The way it works is, you know, we just pick a random video. We have a random number generator, pick a random video. And then we have, there's a software where you can just put the URL of the comment of the video into the randomizer and it'll just pull a random comment out. And that's how we pick. So you don't have to butter us up, guys.

It really is random. But, you know, I won't say that it's, it's always nice to be nice. That's all I'm saying. True, true. Yeah. And speaking of being nice, speaking of doing, you know, something good, we are running a fundraiser right now with Feud. We partner with Feeding America to help get meals to those in need in the U.S. And we first, you know, the first part of this fundraiser is that every new subscriber that we get between this past Monday and May 1st, we're going to be donating 10 cents.

And that's basically a meal, right? Because with their deal with wholesalers, one meal essentially costs 10 cents. So we are donating a meal per subscriber that we earn on YouTube. The second part, though, is that we also put up a donation link for you guys to donate if you have the means to do so. And we set a goal for $500 saying, and you know what? That's kind of us shooting for the moon here. We're given our reach.

And wow. No, actually, because you guys have obliterated that goal. I'm going to refresh this page here because it seems like the number continues to climb every time I look at it. Yeah, we're at $1,635 raise. So that is 16,000-ish meals already raised for feeding America. That is just incredible because even when we were recording our episode yesterday, I think we're at like $400.

No, we were about $200. $200? $200? Yeah. So we almost tripled it. tripled our overall goal in one day between recording. So that's really something. I don't even have words really to express how I feel about that.

Right now our top donor is George, who donated $162. So I'm going to assume one for every, yeah, one for every regular season game. Yeah. Yeah, I could read off some of these. But man, we got so many yesterday. I don't know. We'd be here all day trying to read these. So yeah.

Thank you, George, Nick, Jason. We had a ton of anonymous donors, which is always really cool. Jose Antonio Alvarado is actually from Puerto Rico. He donated $10. Adam Clinton Simmons. We know Adam. He donated $100. Mariner Mojo, who likes to steal our clips.

They donated $100,000. They're making up for it. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Nick. Thank you, Colton. Thank you. Sorry, I forget the other guy that runs Mariners, Melo, over there. Yeah, but we know Column.

Yeah, we go way back. How about Dolphin MJF? I don't know what that is, but they donated $125. Dana and Ken donated yesterday. Like I said, I'm running out of. Yeah, we got Benjamin with 10. We got Taylor with 50. We got Elvis with 20.

We got Zach with a dollar. We got Drake with 10. We got a bunch of anonymous ones, including the $69, dollar donation. Very nice. Jesse, Jeddrick, Ian, more anonymous, Bryce, Freddie, Tim. I'm sorry of, I think we, I think we read Bryce's yesterday.

So of course, Travis, who made the first donation. Mark. Yeah. Thanks, guys. Really appreciate it. Let's keep it going. Let's get to 2K before the end of the night, before first pitch tomorrow.

Let's do it. Yeah, let's do it. I'm in negotiations with Ty about something in regards to this. So we'll see. can land that plan or not. We've had discussions about this on our Patreon, by the way, scan the QR code right

up there if you want to subscribe. By the way, we got a new little partnership over there as well that you can read about. So check that up. There's a new perk that we've added to our Patreon. If you guys, again, if you guys subscribe to the channel,

10 cents, that's the money we've raised. That's not even including the new subscriber count. I think we're at about 75 new subscribers. So 75 meals just from clicking the button guys. So that's and obviously if you want to donate directly, you can do that as well. There's a link in the description that I'll take you to the fund.

And yeah, we'll see how far we can get. You know, I was, I was honestly terrified. We wouldn't get to $500 in the month. And I didn't know how big our reach was and all that stuff. And we almost raised $1,500 on day two alone. So let's see how high we can get this thing. And, yeah, you know, if you want to. You want to tag some people who might be able to blow this thing up even further.

Let's shoot for the stars. Let's do this thing. Let's make it happen. Yeah. And let's get it to a point so high that Ty almost has to do. The deal I'm trying to throw out there. Yeah. So and also if you don't have the means to donate yourself, just subscribe.

Like we said, that's a meal right there. Get your friends to subscribe. Get your family members to subscribe. Just tell anyone to subscribe. and those each subscription leads to a meal and gives a meal to someone who needs it. So, yeah. All right. Well, again, thank you guys from the bottom of our hearts.

This has been incredible. We're going to continue to talk about this over the next few episodes, obviously, as we continue to do this fundraiser for those that might be new and haven't heard about the fundraiser, et cetera. So if you hear us talk about it, you can skip over that in future episodes if you don't want to go over the whole same old spiel. But let's get back into these bold predictions here, Colby. Um, what's your number two? What, what do you, what are you feeling here? So number two, I don't know if this is the boldest one or my last one is the boldest one. Um, but I'm going to assume this one's a little less bold. So, uh, number two, it, of course, involves Jared Kelnick.

Jared Kallnick will put up a negative W.R. Now, I'm sure. Oh, my God. Yeah. We're going to get negative with these bold predictions. Of course. Jared Kelnick will not post an average major league season at the plate. He'll post an above average one because Jared Kelnick is putting up a 115 WRC plus in 2023. That is almost a 50% increase over his production from last year. How is he going to do it? He's going to hit a lot of home runs and he's going to walk a lot.

Is he going to hit 250? No, probably not. But he's going to hit 25 bombs. he's going to walk, you know, 60, 70 times. And the strikeout rate is going to go down. We know Kellynick hits the ball, you know, plenty hard. So if the strikeout rate goes down,

he's making more contact, that's eventually going to turn into more hits. And notice I didn't mention the shift at all because that's really not going to help him that much. So it's going to, Jared Kellanick is going to put up a 115 WRC plus this year. All right. So that kind of leads me to a bonus bowl prediction

that didn't make the cut for me. I actually wrote out like five. So this was one of them that I was like, eh, I like these other three better. So I was going to, because I've talked about this guy over the last couple days, and I keep on thinking about it. And I've explained my reason for it.

So if you want to hear my reason for it, you go back to yesterday's episode. I talked about it a little bit. I think AJ Pollock is going to have one of the five highest WRC plus marks on the mirrors, and it's not going to be because something went horribly wrong. That's pretty, bold, right? That's pretty bold.

That's up there, man. And it didn't make the cut. So I don't know. I don't know. Yeah, you know, just real quick on that. Again, I know, like, you know, go back to the other episode and you can hear like a bigger or longer explanation for it, but

Pollock has really never been that bad against Ritey's outside of last year. He's been a 107 WRC plus guy against Rydies. I am a little concerned about him getting over-exposed, but I think if he ends up facing, you know, lefties and kind of avoids righties eventually over the course of the season. I think his WRC Plus could stay at a 120-ish, you know, 125-ish range. Because he just

mashes those, you know, he matches lefties. Wasn't it like a 169 WRC plus last year or something like that against lefties? It's ridiculous. So if that's all, if that's the more majority of guys that he ends up facing, then his overall WRC plus should end up looking pretty nice. So, all right, so my actual number two bold prediction here. George Kirby wins the Sanyang. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. We've talked about that. That's going to be my prediction for tomorrow as well when we do our league-wide

predictions. But I've added something on top of that. The Bears will not only have the American League Cy Young winner. They will also have two other pitchers finish on the top 10 of Syung voting in the American League. And they'll have three or, well, four technically, if you include Kirby. in the top 15. Okay.

How those guys shake out? I don't know. We won't get that deep into it. But overall, some combination of George Kirby, Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray, and Logan Gilbert will finish

in the top 15 of American League Cy Young voting. Do they even go to 15? Well, I don't think that they announce it, but obviously there are other guys that don't make the top 10 that get voted for.

So. Okay. Look, the top 15 one is one that we probably won't be able to verify at years then, but we can verify the top 10. So as long as the bearers get three guys within the top 10, I think that counts for this bull prediction to be a success. Sure, because at that point, we're arguing whether or not it's the greatest rotation of all time. Yeah, I mean, because that's pretty, like, I don't know how many rotations ever done that before. Detroit back in the day when they had, you know, Scherzer, it wasn't even like elite Scherzer, but. I saw that Scherzer and Verlander and Annabelle Sanchez and Doug Fister.

That was a pretty good one. Yeah. So last year there were two Astros. There were two Blue Jays in the top 10. But yeah, what's stopping a third mariner from sneaking into the top 10? And again, we're talking about one of the donors. But here's the thing, right? So you have two guys that have either won a Syung or have legitimately contended for one.

And then you have two guys that have the ceilings to go win one or contend for one legitimately. Why can't they all do that in the same year? What's stopping them from doing that? I'm just saying this pitching staff is going to win this team a lot of games. It's going to carry them, especially if the offense still, you know, has some uncertainty on the back end of its lineup. But, you know, the rotation is going to need to carry this team. But I think they're going to be even better than what we saw last year. you know obviously the key is going to be health because they were remarkably healthy last year but the

upside of those four guys ridiculous sky's the limit for any of these guys you tell me that logan gilbert robbie rhea louise castillo or george corby is going to win the american league sye young you know at the end of the year i won't even bat an eye i can wrap my head around any of those four guys actually winning this so yeah all right so i guess we have our hottest boldest predictions here coming up. I don't know. I don't know what Colby says. He might be doing this on the fly.

I have no clue. I think he might be. I actually prepared because, you know, it's me. And then you know how this guy is. Because Ty doesn't have the natural talent to fall back on. Yeah.

Ty has to be at the gym at 4 a.m. to work on his jumper. Right. I just roll out of bed. You came out of the womb with a six-pack, yeah. I mean, no. But you guys get the. analogy. Right, right. All right. So before we get into the final bold predictions of the show,

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And you're listening to the Lockdown Mariners podcast. Thank you again for making us your first listen here on opening day eve. And to celebrate the final day of the off season, we are making some bold predictions for the Mariners 2023 regular season and Colby we're at our last ones here what's your final bold prediction

heading into the year well you kind of stole my thunder with your second one but oh I guess I just stick with it I think you guys probably all saw this coming Robbie Ray baby Robbie Ray is going to win the American League Sy Young Oh my God that Robbie Ray

is about to become the best pitcher in the American League. And this time he'll actually have earned the American League Sy Young Award. I think Robbie's going for a five, six-win season. He's going to post near 200 innings. He's going to strike out 230, 240 guys. ERA is going to be in the low threes. FIPP's going to be in the twos. Robbie Ray is up for a huge year.

The things we know about Robbie Ray, even when he had a down year last year, still strikes guys out, still pitches a lot of innings. Those are two huge factors when we talk about Sy Young Awards. Robbie's got them both in his back pocket. All he has to do now is trying to avoid the long ball a little bit better than he did last year. The new fastball velocity or the re-emerging fastball velocity is going to help him do that. The sharper slider is going to help him do that.

The splitter's going to help him do that. And oh, by the way, he's actually throwing the slider for strikes. He doesn't need swings to get the slider, to get strikes on the slider right now. That's how good it is. If he can maintain this level throughout most of the season, Robbie Ray is going to get serious Say Young consideration and he should and I think he's going to do it

so I think Robbie Ray wins the American League Say Young in 2023. Then why did you have me bet $50 for you on George Kirby? Because Kirby had better odds. Robby Ray was only at plus 25. Fair, fair, fair, fair. Good point, good point. So it's like I don't need that.

To quote Michael Scott, I don't need $600. I already have $600 more or less. So that's why I bet on George Kirby. So would we consider the Mariners winning the AL West a bold prediction? No. Okay. So that's why I'm going to take this a step further. Oh, boy.

The Mariners will not only win the AOLS. Oh, boy. But they will do so by seven or more games this year. Whoa. Okay. That's right. That's right. Because right now where these two teams stand, yeah, the Astros are still stacked,

but Yordaun Alvarez got a late start to spring. Jose Altuva is going to miss considerable. time. Justin Verlander is gone. Lance McCullors is hurt. I think the Mariners are going to be able to get out to a hot start and put some ground in between them and Houston before Houston gets fully healthy. And let's just face it, you look at the assets these two teams have to go out and get better at the trade deadline. I feel significantly more confident in the Mariners' ability to get way better than the Astros can at the deadline. And I think that's just going to be. going to put even more ground in between these two teams.

And we're going to look up at the end of the regular season. And the Mariners are going to win the ALS by at least seven games. At least seven games. At least. Okay. Well, you know what my favorite part of these bold predictions are? What? People will remember them.

They'll write them down. That's right. At the end, they'll come back and be like, you guys are idiots. That's right. Because they did that last year, obviously. Yeah. How dare these bold predictions. didn't come true.

That's always my favorite part with bold predictions, right? Right. People, they either, they don't understand the word bold or they don't understand the word predictions. So, yeah, it's always fun to, you know, go back and, like, ha, ha, you said Robbie Ray was going to win the Cy Young and he finished ninth. Oh, yeah. Ouch, you got me. So, yeah, bold prediction, guys. Why have predictions that they're not going to be bold?

That's what tomorrow shows for, all right? Exactly. exactly so yeah tomorrow we'll pick Aaron Judge to win the American League MVP award or will we tomorrow will pick Shohei Otani to win the Say Young or will we I'm not so tomorrow we'll make predictions today it's about being bold

that's right that's right and fortune favors the bold of course so we're going to be going no we're going to be going leaguewide tomorrow we're going to also do some Mariners predictions like you know team awards stuff like that And then we'll try and give you guys a little bit of a preview for the game, even though we're probably going to be posting this episode like four hours before first pitch. So that won't be super relevant. But we'll talk a little bit about Louise Castillo versus Shane Bieber, all that.

Also, real quick, just a question for you guys, because you guys do love card giveaways. Are you guys interested in like, are these, would these be considered vintage now? Because they're like 20 years old. On eBay, anything over 20 years old can be tagged as vintage. Okay. All right. So we'll call these vintage Mariners cards. They're not signed. They're not autos. But I went down to the storage unit. I'm down here with my family in New Mexico. I went to my storage unit. And I looked at a bunch of my childhood stuff. And I found my big binder of cards. And I found a bunch of old Mariners cards from like the early 2000s, late 90s like this, American League rookie of the year, E-trail card. Would you guys be interested in a giveaway featuring some of these cards? I also have let's see here we got desi relliford folks we got desi relifred yeah yeah look at him flashing his shiny fancy autograph big dumper card but yeah if you guys are interested in those kinds of cards in a giveaway let me know maybe i could put together like a pack of like random vintage mariners cards

for you guys that has like i don't know seven to ten because like these these things i don't think they're worth much. So it's not really, it's no skin off my back. I just, I found them today. And I was thinking like, hey, maybe you guys would like these more than, uh, or would appreciate them more than maybe I would. So, uh, yeah, that's going to do it for a show unless you have anything else to add, Colby. Uh, you good? He's got the face that says, I want to get out of here. So we're going to get out of here. That's going to do it for our show. Thank you so much for joining us here on the lockdown Mariners podcast. Hey, it's under 30 minutes right now. We did really good. you keep talking it's not going to be let's go for colby pad note i'm tidan gonzalez be sure to give us a

on twitter at l o underscore mariners you can follow me at dame gnzalus it's e g nz lcc and colby at cpat 11 that's cpat 1 1st follow us on instagram at locked on mariners that's one word locked on mariner's you can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode and thank you again for making us your first listen now for your second listen check out locked on fantasy baseball win your league by listening to matt and dom every day as they bring you the best fantasy draft strategies it's free and available wherever you get your podcast just like us. Part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. And with that, have yourself a beautiful baseball day.

And we'll see you tomorrow on opening day. Peace.