Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - BREAKING: MARINERS TRADE FOR LEFTY RELIEVER CALEB FERGUSON

Starting point is 00:00:00 The Mariners have added some left-handed bullpen help. Let's talk about Caleb Ferguson. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Ahoy, Sailors. It is Wednesday, July 30th, 20, 25.

Starting point is 00:00:25 This is tiny Gazelle. And Colby Pat Node for an emergency episode of the Lockdown Marries podcast, which of course is part of the Locked-on podcast network, your team, every day. This episode is brought to you by Game Time. Download the GameTime app, create an account, and use the promo code Locked-on MLB. That's L-O-C-K-D-O-N-M-LB for $20 off your first purchase. And as always, if you want to hear from me and Colby even more and help support the show, you can check out our Patreon. All you have to do to check that out, click the link in the description of this episode.

Starting point is 00:00:54 So the merits have made another trade. Finally, they have reportedly acquired left-hand reliever Caleb Ferguson from the Pittsburgh Pirates for pitching prospect, Jeter Martinez. He is. So Ferguson has thrown 43 and a third innings out of the Pirates bullpen this year. He has posted a career low 706 case per nine, which does come along with a 2.91 walks per nine, which is the lowest mark he's had since 2020. We'll talk about that a little bit more later on and what's kind of led to that. 374 ERA 314 FIP, but he has been absolute murder on left-handed hitter. this year. They only have one double off of him and no home runs. So that's really cool. And on top of that,

Starting point is 00:01:46 you look at his baseball savant page, a lot of red. The things that Ferguson excels at, he is elite at. And he has been one of the best pitchers in the game in those particular areas. So a nice little ad for the mirrors. This is going to be a quicker episode because there's only so much we can say about a mid-leverage arm. But still, nevertheless, really nice ad for the Marys. Yeah, I mean, this is the J.T. Chirgwa of this trade deadline season where it's a guy that pitches in the middle, gives you a second lefty. So you don't always have to save Gabe Spire for, you know, oh, we really could use

Starting point is 00:02:28 a Gabe Spire in the six, but we use them in the six. We might have them in the eighth type of situation. It gives you that guy. And the way I've kind of learned, as I kind of learned about, Ferguson here is that he reminds me of kind of a mix between Gabe Spire and Bizarro, whereas Bizarro does not miss a ton of bats, but he gets a lot of ground balls. He's very dependable. You count on him in tight spots because he's not going to give up a lot of hard contact.

Starting point is 00:02:52 He's like Spire in that, you know, he's murder against lefties, and he kind of holds his own against Rides. Like he's good enough against Rides, that you really want to use him when it's left, right, left, up coming up next or if it's you know left left right or right left left or as just kind of that first guy out of the pen to put down a rally because he's going to get a lot of ground balls and a lot of soft contact so it's a pretty versatile piece here you can use him in multiple situations but he is definitely a middle guy like this is not the high leverage arm that they need this is a guy to give you know bizardo more days off even though he's got three in a row now

Starting point is 00:03:30 it's it's you know so you can save spire for a more more high leverage role, even though you probably need to bring in a leftie for this role here in the six. That's who this guy is. He's a good ad. He's a quality veteran, been around the block, pitched a ton in the big leagues, and is having a very good season. It's kind of a reinvented Caleb Ferguson, but the results are still really good and the results

Starting point is 00:03:53 are actually better than even the, than they even look. When you look at things like ERA, the expected numbers are way below that, the FIPS below that, the expected batting averages are below that. Just a really good ad. Like there's nothing wrong with this ad. Again, he's not the high leverage guy that you need. We'll talk about that in a minute. But he is a very, he's just a good pitcher.

Starting point is 00:04:16 He really is what Saucato gave you the last couple years. And unfortunately, you just can't trust Saucato to give you again, unfortunately. But that's really who this guy is. And so it's a good ad at a pretty good price too. Yeah. So 100 percentile and hard hit rate against. 97th percentile and barrel percentage. Posing hitters are hardly ever getting quality contact off Caleb Ferguson this year.

Starting point is 00:04:41 100th percentile on average exit velo. So posing headers are not hitting the ball hard whatsoever. They're actually chasing quite a bit against him as well. 30.2% chase rate. He's just not getting any whiffs right now. Seventh percentile and whiff rate, that's an 18 and a half percent clip. And you look at his pitches across the board, the whiff rates on all, of his offerings have gone down about anywhere from 10 to 15% from where they were last year.

Starting point is 00:05:08 He has typically been a high strikeout guy. Last year, as I refresh the page here, he had an 11.1 case per nine, the year before that, 1044 case per nine, the year before that, 961 case per nine. In 2020, in 2020, he had a 1302 case per nine, 1088 case per nine, the year before that, and 10, 8, 4 case per 9 the year before that. The kind of the tradeoff there, though, is that he's also posted higher walk rates in the past than he has this year. So overall, he's just pitching to contact more this year, which has led to the lower strikeouts and the lower amount of walks. And it's paying off for him for the most part.

Starting point is 00:05:52 Again, he is generating a ton of weak contact. He's generating a ton of ground balls. and that's something that the Maris could absolutely use their bullpen. So a nice little supplementary ad. You know, you comp him to kind of the J.T. Chagua edition from last year. He's better than that, for sure. Chagua was definitely just like a shot to take. Ferguson definitely has a bit more track record,

Starting point is 00:06:19 especially as far as 2025 goes than what Chagua had last year when they acquired him. But yeah, this is definitely like the supplementary ad, but this definitely makes the Marys bullpen just a bit deeper and certainly a lot stronger. And look, you know, we've seen it over the last few days even when, you know, Andreas Munoz and Matt Brash and Edward Bizarro, those guys aren't available. Things get really sketchy, really fast. So it's nice to see them beef up the bullpen. And again, it doesn't seem like they might be done on that front.

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Starting point is 00:09:09 or to transfusion flavored five-hour energy shots today. And you're listening to the Lockdown Marrars podcast for instant reactions following every Mariner's game. Be sure to tune in to the Marriss Postcast with Anderson Hearst and Christopher Crawford, available on both the Lockdown Marries YouTube and podcast. So the Mariners have acquired an arm. They have beefed up their bullpen a little bit here with Caleb Ferguson, but it seems like they want to do something a bit more significant. There have been reports all day long about Yon Duran,

Starting point is 00:09:43 the Twins star reliever. A bunch of teams have been calling on him. It's been reports about the Dodgers and the Phillies and obviously the Mariners. And every report has basically said that the expectation is Duran is going to traded before the day is over. And Joel Sherman most recently tweeted that the mayors are trying to push to get

Starting point is 00:10:07 this thing done with the twins on Duran. We'll see if maybe they're also angling to include a Harrison Bader or Willie Castro and that deal. Would love for them to be able to do that on either of those guys. I think either one of those guys would certainly help. Castro more so than Bader, but still. But yeah, the prize there obviously would be Duran. and that is going to be expensive.

Starting point is 00:10:31 And that is a bit scary for me because, I mean, we've talked about this. I've talked about this on locked on. Talked about this on the Patreon show. Shopping at the very, very top shelf for relief talent. It's something that I'm not a huge fan of and what that typically costs teams. But that seems to be something that the mayor has want to accomplish here at this deadline. That seems to be what they've ultimately pivoted to. So like, I get it, but I'm a bit scared about what this would look like if they do get this deal across the finish line.

Starting point is 00:11:03 How are you feeling? Yeah, very similar. By the way, since I got, I know you guys care. I have secured the Caleb Ferguson card for my Jerry Depoto acquisition binder. Um, hoping to add a couple more, uh, before about 24 hours as we're recording this. Um, so yeah. Uh, so here's the deal. Right.

Starting point is 00:11:26 my philosophy in general is that you should be aggressive trading prospects because they're not very good and there's just a low return value to most prospects, right? So you should be aggressive in training prospects, particularly for proven major league talent, particularly for star major league talent, like all star caliber players. Absolutely should. There's a caveat to that. and it is not for relievers, even the best ones. So I am worried that Seattle is about to overpay because, again, there's a big difference

Starting point is 00:12:06 between trading for a year and two months of a Luis Castillo and what that cost you versus Duran in his two plus years. You're going to be really lucky to get 150 innings out of him, spread out over two plus years. when you trade for a guy like Castillo, you're going to get 220 innings out of him over a year and two months. And he's going to be, you can count on him.

Starting point is 00:12:31 He's more consistent because relievers, even the best are volatile as all heck. You never know what days they're going to have it, what days they're not. And when you look at what they bring specifically to the table this year, you're going to get 20 innings. That's about it. 20 innings,

Starting point is 00:12:45 maybe more if you get into the playoffs, but how much are 20 innings really going to impact your odds of making the playoffs, that's up for debate. I know they're 20 high leverage innings, so they're not just, you know, any innings, but just in general, I don't think that you're ever going to get fair value back when you trade top prospects for a reliever. I would rather take the shot that those top prospects are, you know, everyday players. Because think about this, right?

Starting point is 00:13:11 Like an elite year for a reliever, any reliever is like a two-win season. That is an elite reliever season. Cool. A two-win player is. just an average everyday major leaker. Like that's the kind of impact we're talking about here. So Dylan Moore has been a two one player before. You know, so it's just kind of one of those things where personally, I am always trade prospects.

Starting point is 00:13:35 That's fine. You can replace them. They're probably not going to work out anyways. The caveat there, don't fall into the trap of trading for elite relievers because the deal almost never works out the way you want. So this is kind of a sketchy area for me. I'm a little concerned about how much they're willing. to give up. I understand the desire. I understand, you know, dreaming on that bullpen.

Starting point is 00:13:57 I just, I think you can achieve a similar bullpen without giving up, you know, Colt Emerson or whatever. And I don't know if they're going to have to give up Emerson in this deal. I doubt it. But, you know, that that is kind of, I'm sure what the twins are, we're trying to get done. So just for Durant, straight up, if I'm giving up, just by way of example, if I'm getting up Las Montez and Harry Ford for two and a half years of Durant, I don't like that. And again, I am the trade the prospect guys. I am the guy who gets yelled at because I hate Las Montes because I'm like, oh, he's probably not Yordon Alvarez, which means I hate him, obviously.

Starting point is 00:14:32 And I'm still sitting here like, that is a lot to give up for a guy who's going to give you 20 innings this year. There's a non-zero chance he gets hurt or he's not very good for you next year. And you're just not tendering him. So that two and a half years actually turns into a year and a half. There are so many things that can go wrong with the relievers are obviously incredibly volatile. And that that risk is just not as present with bats and with starters. So again, I don't mind giving up prospects for relievers. I really don't like giving them up for the top of the

Starting point is 00:15:01 market guys because that has a really low return on your investment more than likely. Now, you make a deep playoff run and Duran helps you get there. Obviously that that ends up being worth it. But the odds are stacked against you when you trade premium prospect for a guy who's going to give you maybe 70 innings a year. Yeah. Yeah. I just don't like that math. It's super risky. It is very, very risky. But obviously, like in a vacuum, like you add Ron now to, you know, Ferguson and

Starting point is 00:15:33 obviously Munoz and Brash and Spire and Bizarreto, that's like bullpen of death. Right. That sets you up very well for the final two months of the regular season and hopefully October. But yeah, then, you know, take. taking a step back, trying to look more of the big picture here, and looking also down the road, again, relievers of all kinds are incredibly volatile. That could go sideways very, very quickly. So, yeah, it's interesting.

Starting point is 00:16:04 And I also just kind of wonder if, like, do you really need to shop at the very, very top shelf for relief talent? I don't think they do. They absolutely need bullpen help. Like, don't get me wrong. They need bullpen help. They need more on top of Caleb Ferguson. It's just could they ultimately accomplish what they need to accomplish with just like a Phil Maeton on top of Caleb Ferguson or, hey, maybe the Braz are actually willing to trade Fairbanks, what have you?

Starting point is 00:16:37 Could they do that? I think so because I think Duran significantly exceeds what they just kind of like the bar. that they need to clear here as far as the bullpen goes but hey like in general just like talking about the player himself like if they get you on to run i'm not complaining about that specific aspect of it so we'll see what it costs if they ultimately you know push this thing across the finish line again the dodgers are heavily involved here reportedly and dodgers can offer a lot as well so this is far from a sure thing uh but yeah last we have heard on twitter uh the mayor is are making a pretty strong push to get drawn.

Starting point is 00:17:20 Speaking of returns, let's quickly touch on the return in the Caleb Ferguson deal. Jeter Martinez, that's obviously a name that I think anyone that has even mildly kept up with the Marys Farm system would recognize. So I've seen some reactions that are like, that's a little much for a couple of months of a lefty reliever. I'm fine with it, though.

Starting point is 00:17:43 This is a guy that he's 19 years old. He's had issues throwing strikes. I get there's like a little bit of a, you know, residual effect of like the Pablo Lopez's of the world and the Freddie Peralta's of the world. But it's going to take a lot for Jeter Martinez to, you know, get to that point. And it honestly looks more likely that Martinez is not even going to sniff the big leagues

Starting point is 00:18:11 rather than the other way around. So I'm totally fine with them taking a shot on Ferguson and using, you know, someone like Martinez to take that shot. Because, again, Martinez may never pitch in the big leagues. And if he does, it's almost certainly going to be as a reliever. So, yeah, there's a risk with everybody that you trade. But you shouldn't let that, you know, 0.0005% chance that he's, you know, Pablo Lopez. You shouldn't let that stop you from trying to win in 2025 because, again, 99.995% of the time,

Starting point is 00:18:43 you traded nothing for a guy who's probably going to help you. so yeah i mean we'll see how it goes but uh it's it's totally fine trade and when you kind of look at what another rental reliever went for earlier the uh was it taylor rogers or tyler whichever one uh he ended up costing the met's two of their top 10 prospects and uh two guys who made who had made their major league debut already uh so yeah pretty good uh value on a seller's market particularly in the bullpen. So we'll see what they do with Duran. We'll see if they get Willie Castro.

Starting point is 00:19:18 We'll see if they're still in on Gino and all of that. But it does sound like we're going to have a resolution on Duran today. Yeah. So this might not be the last time you guys hear from us tonight. You might not even hear this episode before we have to record the next one. Yeah, we'll see how that goes. All right. That's going to do it for our show.

Starting point is 00:19:41 Thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Airs podcast. Colby Paddode. I'm Tiding Gazzalas. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Marrers. You can follow me at Tadine G. Colby at C-Pat-11. We're also on Blue Sky. You can follow me at TDG, Colby at MLB Colby, and the show at Lockdown Merriers. You can also find us on Instagram at Locked on Marrars. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day and we'll see you next time. Peace.

Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - BREAKING: MARINERS TRADE FOR LEFTY RELIEVER CALEB FERGUSON

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