Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - BREAKING: SEATTLE MARINERS SIGN COLT EMERSON TO 8-YEAR EXTENSION

Starting point is 00:00:00 The Mariners have made a significant investment in one of the best prospects in baseball. We'll tell you what we think coming up here on the Lockdown Marriss podcast. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Ahoy, sailors. It is Tuesday, March 31st, 2026.

Starting point is 00:00:28 My name is Tadden Gazzalas, and I'm joined as always by my co-coes Colby Patnode. Today, we're going to open up the mailbag and answer some of your Maris questions, But first, we've got news per Robert Murray of fan-sided. The mayors have signed Colt Emerson to an eight-year $95 million extension that includes a ninth-year club option, a full no-trade clause, and escalators that can maximize his overall earnings to $130 million. So, Colby, we've been asked about extensions a lot. We talked about them a lot over the course of the winter. We mostly talked about Logan Gilbert in that regard. But we also talked about Emerson as a possibility here.

Starting point is 00:01:06 And the mayor has wind up getting something done with him this morning and make a fairly significant investment and a guy that, you know, hasn't taken a real major league got bat yet and probably won't still for at least a little while. So what do you think? Yeah, it's a great deal, frankly. You get a player who right now a top 10 prospect in baseball. there's nobody who doesn't think he's going to be able to play a good solid defensive shortstop, if not maybe even a little bit better than that.

Starting point is 00:01:38 The ceiling is very high or the floor is very high for the bat and the ceiling is also there. Like there is a non-zero chance of this guy could be Gunner Henderson, but he doesn't have to be to return the value on this contract. And that's kind of the point. You know, current market value tells you that a win in free agency is worth about 10 to 12 million bucks, give or take, and that's going up in theory. We'll see what the new CBO says about that. But anyway, so in general, to return value on this contract,

Starting point is 00:02:12 he would have to be, he would have to accumulate, I don't know, eight to 12 wins somewhere in that range, depending on which end of the spectrum you want to look at for the valuation in eight years. And he has a very good chance of doing that in his first two full seasons, maybe three because he's only 20. Maybe it takes him three or four years. But the point is that you're paying for his age 20 through 28 season. You have the club option on the ninth year, which if he's not that good,

Starting point is 00:02:42 if he's disappointing, you don't have to accept it. You're fine. But if he's good, you're going to get him at a drastic discount. We can't even predict what the market's going to look like in 2034 or whatever. But I guarantee you this, it's not going to go down like all star quality, short stops who are pre-30 are not all of a sudden only going to make $8 million a year. That's not going to be a thing. So what you're doing is you're paying a little bit more upfront right now to lock in the

Starting point is 00:03:08 cost so you know exactly what Emerson's going to cost you on your payroll for the next nine years, 10 years, whatever. And you know you can build around that. You know what Julio's going to cost you. You know what Cal's going to cost you at least for the next five years. You know what Emerson's going to cost you. You start to build around these core players and you know what they cost. and you know how much you have to spend around them to supplement the talent.

Starting point is 00:03:32 So you're paying maybe a little bit more. And we don't know the exact breakdown of this in terms of is it backloaded. Is it a straight across deal? It's probably backloaded. But yeah, you're paying a little bit more for the pre-RBers because the real prize at the end of this is you get his age 27, 28, and 29 season for what will be well below market value for a player of his caliber. and if he doesn't perform, if he doesn't quite hit what he needs to be, you paid him roughly the same AAB that you paid J.P. Crawford five years ago. Like it's an insane value.

Starting point is 00:04:06 It's great. There's no downside whatsoever. And again, it's spending a little bit of money now. We don't exactly know. Maybe it's only a million bucks now or maybe it's five million now. We don't know. But you're paying just a little bit more so that when he gets to his prime years and the market would pay him 30, maybe $40 million a year, if he is who we think he's going to be.

Starting point is 00:04:28 Now you're paying him $12 million a year. So you think about it, it's about $20 million of savings in the last three year of the contract to pay him maybe $5 million more per year in the first three years of the contract. And one thing to keep in mind, one X factor here, we actually don't know how many years of free agency they bought out because in the next round of CBA negotiations, if there's going to be a salary, if there's, going to be a salary cap, which the owners are seemingly drawn a hard line on, the most likely counter for the players will be a much higher salary floor than the owners are proposing right now, but also a reduction in service time to become a free agent from six years to five years. The Mariners very well may have just bought out four years of Colt Emerson's free agency

Starting point is 00:05:13 and done it at a drastic discount. Perhaps to the tune of, let's say, you know, it's a general, let's just, because we don't know, let's just say it's a straight. deal, right? He gets paid the same amount every year, which probably doesn't, but just for the sake of easy math, if he's worth $30 million on the open market in those years, and you're paying him $11 million, that is $19 million each season that you get to go and spend on other players that you don't have to spend on one of your best players, you pay the money now, so it's cheaper later, right? You invest in the really good pair of shoes because you don't need to replace it

Starting point is 00:05:50 every six months. These shoes are going to last 10 years, right? That's why you can pay the more expensive dress shoe prices. And when you're the Mariners, you can afford to do that. You're not living paycheck to pay check to pay check. You can afford to think long term. And in the long run, it actually is smarter because you're going to save money as opposed to trying to play this year by year and just hoping that you can get him signed. Because, you know, what happens if you did, what happens if you didn't sign this? He comes up this year and he goes 300, 400, 500 and in 100 games.

Starting point is 00:06:18 Guess what? This contract right here is $150 million. Like, that's the risk you run. if you get this done now. So there's very little downside of this. It's basically impossible for the Mariners not to make their money back. It's not impossible. We know that prospects like Jared Kelnick have failed.

Starting point is 00:06:35 Right. It's a very similar rated prospect, obviously different prospect. I mean, like, you know, the last time they did something like this specifically was Evan White. And that was what, $24 million. And he didn't even live up to that, right? And, you know, so this is, you know, obviously. But yeah. Yeah, obviously, yes.

Starting point is 00:06:54 But like, you know. How much did that $24 million hurt the Mariners? Not at all. Yeah. Like it was, it was, you know, dumping that salary was part of what looked to be a pretty bad trade at the time, but wound up being totally fine in the end. Essentially, you paid $2 for a lottery ticket that actually has, you know, better than 50% odds of paying out $1,000. and has like a one in 10 chance of paying out a million dollars. Like there's no reason not to spend the $2 right now to get that and take your shot.

Starting point is 00:07:33 So it's not even like buying a lottery ticket. That's how high the floor is of Colt Emerson. You know, like Evan White, that was buying a lottery ticket. He's a first base only player who most of his value was wrapped up in a first base defense. And you were hoping you could develop this. This is a shortstop who can play shortstop, can stick there, has good. feel for the barrel, very likely to hit for average, and he's growing into power. He's a good base runner.

Starting point is 00:07:57 He just checks all the boxes. Yeah, you feel you feel good about at least some of the tools playing, you know, specifically like up the middle defense. Like you're going to get value there. There are some things that I feel you can hang your hat on with Cole Emerson, where you know you're going to get some value that overall he's going to be a positive presence on your roster, even if the bat takes a little bit of time to catch up. And that's very possible at 20 years old.

Starting point is 00:08:23 I would be I'd be shocked, like absolutely floored if Colt Emerson didn't settle into being as a floor, like a two, two and a half one player. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:08:37 That's just how high the floor is. The ceiling, six wins, maybe seven wins. Like the ceiling might be prime Corey Seeger. It might be Gunner Henderson. Like that is legit ceiling comp. Again,

Starting point is 00:08:50 that's ceiling. Is he likely to get there? No, no player is. but I think he's probably very much likely going to be better than J.P. Crawford. And if you gave, you know, if I told you that Colth Emerson was going to be J.P. Crawford, like prime J.P. Crawford, and that's who Colt Emerson was going to be for the next eight years, you would give him $95 million, no problem.

Starting point is 00:09:08 Yeah. You wouldn't even think twice about it. You get that guy for sub 100 mil over eight years. That's a huge, huge deal for you. Yeah. And if he does pop and he does hit those escalators or whatever, you're going to be more than happy to pay it, because you're going to have an all-star, maybe MVP candidate even, still at a value way below market.

Starting point is 00:09:30 Yeah. So, yeah, you build, you put the stakes in now and you claim that land so you can build on it in the future whenever you want. Yeah. And I like that this doesn't come attached with like a guarantee of him being on the roster or anything like that where you just kind of throw this 20 year old into the fire and you go, okay, now you got to live up to this contract immediately. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:09:50 I like that he's, you know, he's got his. money. He signed his contract now. And he's still down in AAA just kind of, you know, working through things and getting ready to make his major league debut here. And who knows? I mean, we talked about this on the Patreon last night. Like,

Starting point is 00:10:07 you know, how do you like how do you eventually get Cole Emerson involved into the mix of things? Especially if, you know, guys perform relative to how they have through the first five games of the season. Like, I don't know when we're going to see Cole Emerson, frankly. At the major league level. Even with

Starting point is 00:10:22 this deal. I struggle to see him making his debut before the All-Star break unless there's a significant injury. It doesn't necessarily have to be to one of the... And again, that's assuming that everyone is kind of performing how they have through the first five games. But, yeah, J.P. Crawford's not

Starting point is 00:10:37 getting benched or being the utility player now because, you know, Emerson signed this deal. That's not what happened here. And by the way, one of the things you have to be very careful of, and I think one of the things the Mariners probably learned from their failed attempt to extend Jared Kelmick, you're investing in the person too.

Starting point is 00:10:55 And by all accounts, Emerson is the safest bet you could possibly make. He's a hard worker. He's got the maturity of a 15-year major league vet. He's very analytically driven. He wants to be great. Like all of this stuff, like all the intangibles, check, check, check, check, check.

Starting point is 00:11:11 You cannot talk to anybody about Colta Emerson without somebody immediately talking about how mature and how like just up the presence he has. And, you know, that's something that guys like, Jared Kelnick just didn't have. They didn't have the maturity. They certainly were driven, but there are other factors that need to be in play.

Starting point is 00:11:29 And Emerson, by all accounts, checks all those boxes. So, like you see, I mean, you literally, you can't talk to Gary Hill without him first going. Like, first of all, he sounds like he's been in the league for 10 years. And, you know, he's very mature. And he comes from a great family and all that. Like, Aaron will say the same thing. The Marine layer guys will say the same thing. It's just the first thing people say when they talk, you know, Aram said the same thing.

Starting point is 00:11:50 Joe said the same thing. Like, he's an impressive kid. And you can never be 100% sure with any prospect. But the closer you can get to that, though, the better, obviously. And in the terms of a risk, this is such a low risk that it's almost non-existent. Cole Emerson, yeah, that was my way of essentially saying that Cole Emerson is about as close to a safe bet as I think you can get. just because of like you know the makeup, you know the talent,

Starting point is 00:12:23 you know that there, again, like I said earlier, there are some things that you can hang your hat on for sure. Like, you know, like he's going to stick up the middle. And so you have to feel good about,

Starting point is 00:12:31 you know, given money to this guy who is putting the work in and is living up to the expectations that you have for all of your players, right? That he's meeting those expectations, that he is doing things essentially the mariner way,

Starting point is 00:12:46 right? They don't call it that, but that's essentially like what we have come to learn over the last decade with, you know, the Jerry DePoto regime and, you know, Andy McKay's influence, you know, early on and all that. And as this thing has developed, the mayors very much have certain boxes that they want their players to check off, not just what they do on the field. And Cole Emerson, by all accounts, checks off a lot of those boxes, if not all of them. All right, we will switch gears here and answer some of your questions. obviously didn't do the mailbag yesterday, so we're doing the mailbag today. We'll get into that in just a moment.

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Starting point is 00:15:35 And you're listening to the Lockdown Mariners podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Thank you so much for making us your first listen for all things, Mariners, and also thank you for making Locked on the number one sports podcast network. Baseball is finally back. And to celebrate, I am personally giving you a full month of the everyday or club for free. Not Colby, me. Go to Lockdown Mariners.

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Starting point is 00:16:31 underscore Mariners, and you can vote in the poll that we have there as well. We're going to be combining the results of that Twitter poll and the Google Forms poll that we have in the description of this episode to determine who will win, who will be the best or what will be the best. I should say moments in Mariners history. And so far, how do you think things are going, Colby? Yeah, it turns out when people can't stuff the ballot box, the vote totals go down. So not overwhelmingly a ton of votes, more on Twitter. But it is interesting to look at the two different crowds

Starting point is 00:17:09 because on the Google form, we're running nearly 50-50. Like I think it's what I say, 5248, 53347 in favor of the double. When you go over to the Twitter poll, it's 6040 the double. So Twitter is actually skewing more towards 95 and, you know, the forum is skewing a little more towards Cal. So, yeah, we'll see what happens there. But yeah, you guys can vote twice. So you want to split your ticket. Go ahead and do that, I guess.

Starting point is 00:17:38 But, you know, just remember you get who you vote for. But yeah, the polls off. It's about 200 votes total when you combine the two in one day. So that's not too bad. And right now there's more votes on Twitter and the double is leading by more significant margin on Twitter. So I haven't combined the numbers yet. But I would venture to say that right now the double is probably up about 5842 if I had to guess. So still anybody's race, certainly.

Starting point is 00:18:08 So if you're a big Cal fan and I mean, I don't know, maybe after last night, maybe you can throw them a vote here or there but yeah we'll see what happens but so far the vote is is saying like the you know the brainmaker is kind of staying in the in the race right now and and it's so it's time to make a move but yeah check out the the link in the description go to the to the locked on Twitter account you could also vote there we should probably pin that so people can find it easier and stuff having to run through that right now so yeah it'll be pinned and then also the link to the other way to vote will be in the description down below. And after that, you guys won't have to hear us talk about this after Monday.

Starting point is 00:18:51 So there you go. We'll find something else to bother you with. Don't worry. Absolutely. But also be prepared for a lot of these this winter for reasons. Yeah. So getting into the mailback here, Grumpy Rock wants to know with Colt Emerson signing an extension, assuming he would be willing to sign one, do you think Cole Young could play his way into a contract this

Starting point is 00:19:12 year. I think it might be too late on Cole Young? I don't think so. No. No. The tricky part will be if you're Cole Young, you're probably going to be like, well, give me what Colt got. I'm a major leaguer.

Starting point is 00:19:27 Like, I'm establishing myself right now. And it's like, yeah, but you're not as good. Like, let's be real about that. So, yeah, but it's just 22 years old. Right? Is he still 22? Yeah. Pretty sure he's still 22.

Starting point is 00:19:39 Yeah. He's 22 years old. His second baseman had a really nice game last. night three hits off of lefties how about that um including you know absolutely raked double um any yeah the single that he had up the middle too was smashed it was awesome so yeah uh cole young i wouldn't be shocked at all of the mariners want to have those talks i don't know if cole's interested at all you just that's kind of the x factor here like should the mariners extend you know cole young should they extend ryan sloane should they yes they should they should

Starting point is 00:20:12 are the other players, are those players interested? I can't say. You know, who's to say? But I think there is a possibility that Young could be extended this year. As for whether or not he can play his way into an extension. I think he could play his way out of an extension. And what I mean by that is, is that if he performs like he has and we get to August, Cole might be sitting there going like, well, no, I'm not going to take less than $100 million.

Starting point is 00:20:37 I'm a 22-year-old middle infielder, you know. But we talked about Cole Young, like the Colt Keith contract. I think was the example we used as a possibility there. So I could see him playing his way or I could see the Mariners getting something done. But if he performs really well, then he's probably going to be less inclined to get something done. And if he performs super poorly, the Mariners might, you know, pump the brakes a little bit on that. But I do think that there is a real possibility that he could get extended as well this winter or sorry, this summer. but kind of feels like right now,

Starting point is 00:21:12 now that Emerson's done, I think Logan is probably where they're going to focus most of their attention now. But yeah, I could see Young getting extended. I wouldn't be shocked by that at all. They really like Cole Young. And I think Mariner fans are starting to like him too. Yeah, I don't think there's necessarily playing into a contract extension here for Cole.

Starting point is 00:21:31 I think the Marins had interest in doing that for a while now. All right. Kerry wants to know, what would a Brennan Donovan extension need to look like for both sides to be interested? You guys want to extend everyone right now. I like it. This one's a bit tricky because you have them for two years. There's obviously the pending CBA, and we don't know what that's going to do.

Starting point is 00:21:54 It's a little bit easier if you're Colt Emerson where you're like, well, I'm probably going to be a mariner through the next CBA, like not this upcoming CBA negotiation, but the one after that, I'm probably still going to be with the mariner. So more incentive to get something done there. But yeah, Donovan's, he's 30 years old. You get him for two more years. And there's not a ton of great comps for this. But the one comp I did find that I thought was kind of interesting, Jeff McNeil was about 30 when he signed his extension. He had two years left to club control. And he got four and 50, I believe.

Starting point is 00:22:28 So obviously you have to factor in, you know, the fact that I think Donovan's a little bit more of a consistent player. There were some ups and downs in McNeil's profile. better defender at least right now. McNeil's tricky, but I think that's a pretty good comp. It's the 4 and 50. So I'm thinking, and but so a four-year deal would be a two-year extension off of what you already, you know, control them for.

Starting point is 00:22:54 So I'm thinking something like four and 60 to kind of assess for inflation, but. So I was thinking 5 and 75. Yeah. So you get three years of free agency, bought out. I think that's something that Donovan would probably want because if he hit the market in two years he'd probably be looking at a two

Starting point is 00:23:13 to three year deal, maybe a four year deal. So yeah, that would be the 5.4 that he's making this year. Like 10 next year is what you think roughly he'd get an arbitration. And then 20 per give or take

Starting point is 00:23:29 for the other three years. Yeah. I mean, it's a trick. Do you want the third year because you want the security or do you want one more bite while you're still like 32 33 where there might you won't be like over the hill you know what I mean so I think the 4 and 50 is is a good starting point but obviously you have to adjust for inflation and all that there's going to be little differences in every player's negotiation so I did settle on about the 4 and 60 which is you know 15 a year so I think we're in

Starting point is 00:24:02 the same ballpark aavie wise I think about 15 but if you're Donovan I don't know there's much incentive to take that right now. Although he's in his, you know, what, this is his fifth year in the big leagues and he's only making $5 million this year. Like he has not racked up a ton of money relative to the value he provides. And he also hasn't been, you know, necessarily the beacon of good health, you know, his career as well. No, he's 29 right now. So he's only played 150 plus games once in his career. So you wonder, I mean, they're different players, but I think, you know, similar roles. What did

Starting point is 00:24:38 what did Hanager get from San Francisco? Didn't he get 15 million a year? 3 and 45 I think 3 and 48 maybe. I thought it was like 17 and a half per. Okay. Maybe it was 3.51, something like that. Yeah. Anyways, I think that's the ballpark.

Starting point is 00:24:55 Again, is he going to be that interested in that right now? I don't know. He's probably still trying to get a feel for the city and all that, but really returns on whether or not he could hit at Team Mobile Park are going quite well. It was 43 and a half over three per Hanager. Yeah, like 14 a year. You got 5 in 2020, 23, 17 and 2024, and then 15 a half in 2025.

Starting point is 00:25:21 Yeah. So I think it's something McNeil, Hanager, somewhere in that range. You adjust for inflation. I think we're looking at about $15 million a year. All right. We'll answer more of your questions than just a moment. But first, a reminder, this episode of the Locktime Airs podcast is brought to you by TurboTax and the space anal.

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Starting point is 00:27:35 It's called Control the Zone. on there we talk mirrors seahawks all that good stuff for more information go to patreon.com forward slash control his own link in the description of this episode all right dan wants to know here's a fun one with curtis mead on the move again what would colby's ideal one through nine look lineup look like using only his favorite fringe 26 man roster guys like curtis mead austin shenton etc all right i guess i'm just sitting this one out so All right. Well, you're going to have to give me some leeway because, believe it or not, I don't have a giant list of like, please remove your hands from your back of your head. I'm chilling right now. I'm chilling. This is a Colby question, so I'm just going to, you know, hit the sidelines here.

Starting point is 00:28:24 Laning back with your hands behind your head. That's a look. And it went bald again. It worked last year as one. So I'm bald maxing again here on the show. speak like a normal person. Anyway, so you're going to have to cut me some slack here on the fringe 26.

Starting point is 00:28:44 I don't have like a list of like four A players that I, so some of these guys are like established major leaguers, but they're not like stars by any stretch. And you'll have to give me a little bit of a break on the catcher as well because I couldn't think of a catcher. So I kind of had to pick a guy who used to be a catcher to be my current catcher. But you'll get there. We'll get there.

Starting point is 00:29:03 So yeah, leading off, I actually wrote on a lineup, leading off I got J.J. able a day as my center fielder okay yeah yeah yeah uh third base uh i had a couple options i almost went shinton but since you already mentioned him uh i went with eggy rosario you remember him okay yeah yeah yeah remember him yeah uh hitting third and playing second base i have justin foske who is uh texas ranger second baseman i don't really remember you talking about justin foske oh i like foske he's 27 years old and he's still trapped in in triple a for the rangers i think he

Starting point is 00:29:36 he's going to hit he's still in the rangers org yeah yeah it's wild uh so this one is probably the biggest stretch but it's jake bowers the original you know i mean he's he's playing left field bowers rangers he's he's he's a role player so fringe is is a bit of a stretch but whatever again coming some slack uh dh i have lukin baker who used to be with the cardinals now he's with the dodgers uh i think he's still with the dodgers Then at first base, I have Curtis Mead. At Catcher, I have M.J. Melendez. Okay, yeah.

Starting point is 00:30:15 So no longer Catcher, but he was. Again, cut me some slack there. At Shortstop, I have Brooks Lee. Okay. Who really has not established himself in the big leagues yet. This is his third attempt. And so I feel like that's close enough to fringe. Like former top prospect, sure, but so was Curtis Mead.

Starting point is 00:30:34 And he's awful. So, yeah. Yeah, Brooksley, I think, counts. And then in Wright Field, of course, I have Ben Gamble. Hitting 9. Naturally, naturally. So, yep, just to run it down. Bladay, Aggie Rosario, Justin Foske, Jake Bowers,

Starting point is 00:30:48 Luke and Baker, Curtis, Mead, M.J. Melendez, Brooks Lee, Ben Gamble. Well, that is going to do it for our show. Thank you so much for joining us here on the Locktime Marries podcast. Part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. And once again, if you never miss an episode, it's time to make it official. Join the Lockdown Every Day or Club and get ad-free audio.

Starting point is 00:31:05 access to our members-only Discord and more, all built for our most loyal fans. For Colby Patnode, I'm Tadangazales. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L0-U- underscore Marriers. You can follow me at Tadagalus and Colby at C-Pat 11. That's C-PAT-11. We're also on Blue Sky. You can follow me at MLB-Colby

Starting point is 00:31:21 in the show at Lockdown Mariner's. You can also find us on Instagram and TikTok at Lockdown Mariner's. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day, and we'll see you next time. Peace.

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