Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Cal Raleigh Is Criminally Underrated + An Overall Look at Mariners Catchers
Episode Date: March 5, 2024Ty and Colby continue their position preview series with a look at the Mariners' catching situation in 2024, discussing Cal Raleigh, Mitch Garver, Seby Zavala, and Blake Hunt.Ask us questions!Follow t...he show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @TyDaneGonzalez | @CPat11Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Factor MealsHead to FactorMeals.com/lockedonmlb50 and use code lockedonmlb50 to get 50% off.Amazon Fire TVFire TV recently created Fire TV Channels to deliver a constant supply of the latest videos from your favorite sports brands, all for free. That includes all of us at Locked On and most of the big pro leagues and college conferences as well. To Learn More, visit www.amazon.com/LockedOnFireTV PrizePicksGo to PrizePicks.com/lockedonmlb and use code lockedonmlb for a first deposit match up to $100! eBay MotorsWith all the parts you need at the prices you want, it’s easy to turn your car into the MVP and bring home that win. Keep your ride-or-die alive at EbayMotors.com. Eligible items only. Exclusions apply. eBay Guaranteed Fit only available to US customers.GametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDON for $20 off your first purchase. FanDuelNew customers, join today and you’ll get ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS in BONUS BETS if your first bet of FIVE DOLLARS or more wins. Visit FanDuel.com/LOCKEDON to get started. FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Transcript
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It's time to look at the Mariners catchers heading into 2024.
We'll talk Cal Raleigh, Seby Zavala, Blake Hunt,
and even Mitch Garver coming up here on the Lockdown Marrars podcast.
Colby, hit it.
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And today we're continuing our position preview series with a look at the Mariner's
catchers.
And we're going to start, of course, with the big dumper himself, Cal Raleigh, who is effectively
entering his fourth season in the major league's third full season.
Coming off of a really good year, almost a five-win player by Fangraph standards.
What are your expectations for Raleigh in 2024, Colby?
I hope he finally gets the recognition he deserves as probably the second best catcher in baseball.
He's so criminally underrated.
He's underrated on underrated list.
Yeah.
Think about that.
Yeah.
Because when you think about like the catchers in Major League Baseball, who is better just overall at everything than Cal Raleigh?
Maybe Adley.
Yep.
I think that's fair.
Sean Murphy?
Doesn't have the power of Cal.
So I don't, maybe, maybe like,
Cal's definitely top five or top six.
Like, there's no way he's outside the top five or six.
Yeah, what was that list that we talked about on our Patreon show,
a couple weeks back that put Yang Gomes over him?
Well, it was a list of the most underrated players for the catcher position.
And the guy thought Yon Gomes was more underrated than Cal Raleigh.
What are we doing here, man?
As if you needed any more proof that Cal Raleigh is tragically underrated.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Anyways.
So yeah, Cal hopefully gets some recognition.
But as for what we can expect on the field, what we can hope.
I still think there's more average in his bat.
He's going to strike out.
That's going to be a part of his game.
He did, you know, get better in that regard last year.
Can he continue to get a little bit better?
Maybe.
I think he can.
But I do think that there's more hits to get here.
I do think that the 25 to 30 homer in power,
that's something you can more
less bank on, at least that pacing.
Maybe he gets fewer at bats this year, which would actually be a good thing because the
Mariners feel like they can actually give him time off and not have to run him into the ground
every August and September.
That's going to wear on you.
So I feel like Cal, you know, he's going to hit 25, 30 home runs.
He's probably, I think he could hit 250.
But I think if he's around, you know, 230, he's going to have around a 300 on base percentage
and probably slug 450 to 500.
30 homers.
We know the defense is gold glove caliber.
He's going to put up another four or five-win season.
And if the average clicks and he draws a few more walks,
if you can cut down on the strikeouts a little bit,
it's not ridiculous to think he could have a six-win season,
which starts to put you into most valuable player conversations.
Probably never going to win it because he's a catcher for the Mariners.
So, yeah, probably not going to happen.
And also probably not going to happen because I'll get into a six-win season
is definitely the like 100th percentile one universe type of idea here.
But Cal is really hard not to bank on.
I think you feel really good that he's going to be at least even with a bad year.
He's going to be a three-win player, three-and-a-half-win player.
And obviously the upside is there for six wins or so.
So I think, you know, four-win season, I feel pretty confident about that.
I think he's going to hit 230, 300, 450.
I think he's going to hit 25 to 30 bombs.
And I think there's upside for a little bit more offensively.
And then we'll see how the defense carries over.
Last year in the second half, he really figured out how to control the run game.
He was throwing guys out left and right.
So we'll see if that's something that continues into this year.
But yeah, there's very few players you should feel better about entering 2024 than Cal Raleigh.
Like, I feel like we just know who this guy is now.
One of the greatest joys for me of watching Mariners baseball over the last couple years is left-handed Cal Raleigh.
I love left-handed Cal Rale so much.
So I'm very excited to see that.
again. Let's talk a little bit about the absence of Tom Murphy. Murphy is now in San Francisco,
and as we know, Murphy, when healthy, was more often than not a pretty impactful player
for this team. Do you think that his absence will be felt over the course of this season?
Yes and no. It's hard to be an impactful player when you're only playing 40 games a year.
Sure.
Like it's just,
it's hard to be an impactful player when you're really only impacting versus left-handed pitching,
which you're only facing 35% at the time.
So I think,
you know,
for what he was,
Tom Murphy was a good player.
And certainly he did have some,
he did have some credibility built up in that clubhouse.
And he was one of the leaders that,
that was talked about in there.
And he's a hard worker.
It's not,
you know,
he's not getting hurt because he's not putting in the work.
We know Tom does.
does that. So I do think they lose a little something in the clubhouse in terms of like, do they lose a ton like on the field value here? I don't think so because of who they brought in, but also because you just can't count on Tom. Like as annoying as it is, you just can't count on Murphy to to play on any given day. So yes, I think they miss his presence in the clubhouse. And when he's healthy, he can hit. He can hit particularly left-handed pitching. But he just, you can't rely on it. You can't count on it.
a large part of the reason that Cal has had to play so much over the last few years is because
the marriage didn't have a viable backup because Tom Murphy just couldn't stay healthy.
So yes and no, I think is probably the correct answer there.
But, you know, he certainly would help.
But I think the mayors are in pretty good shape to absorb that loss.
And we'll get into what's behind Raleigh a little later on in this show.
But before that, we're actually going to talk about Mitch Garver,
who hopefully doesn't catch much, if at all, this season
in order to keep him healthy and keep him in the lineup
because what you sign Garver for is that bat.
But we're going to include him in this preview
because he technically is a catcher on paper
and we're not going to do a full DH episode.
So that's coming up in just a moment.
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And before we get back into our catcher preview
and talk a little bit about Mitch Garver,
if you're not on Twitter or you just so happen to miss it,
we made an announcement today that Mariners,
president of baseball operations, Jerry Depoto, will be joining us once again this Thursday.
Chills.
So, let's talk Mitch Garber.
Garver again, hopefully not going to catch much, if at all, this season, because you want to maximize the value of that bat.
You want to be able to keep him healthy, which he has not been able to do so more often than not.
They have already caught Garver this spring.
He has said on his radio appearance on 710C,
sports a few days back that the Mariners did bring him in partly because he could help the catching situation.
To what degree we have no idea.
But we're going to include him in this conversation.
But more so just want to talk about this bat and what the Mariners are getting in Garber.
What are your expectations for Garber in 2024?
I feel reasonably good that Garber is going to set career high in games played and played appearances.
Now, I don't think he's ever cracked 400 plate appearances.
If he has, it was like 406.
So I feel pretty comfortable thinking that as long as the Mariners don't catch him too much,
I feel like he could reasonably, you know, expect 450 to 500 plate appearances from him,
which would be, you know, roughly 115 games, give or take.
And you want as many at-bats as you can get because Garber can hit.
He is a hitter.
And it's not that you don't want him to catch because he's a bad catcher.
He's not.
He's not great, but he's certainly not bad.
And on the rare, on the rare days he does catch, it's not going to kill you, like defensively.
He's not Jesus Montero back there, right?
Like he can legitimately do the job.
It's just the bat is so valuable you don't want to risk it.
And obviously, when you catch, you're exposing yourself to probably more injury risk than any position on the field other than pitchers.
It's the most demanding position.
In baseball.
Right.
It's hard on your knees, your back, your quads, not to mention the foul tips.
We know that you have hand and wrist injuries when you catch.
Like those are major components.
Cal are gone potentially.
Yep.
So you just want to limit his exposure as much as you can unless situations dictate that you kind of have to throw caution to the wind.
And I think that situation only arises if cow suffers a pretty serious injury, knock on wood.
You know, if cow is going to miss a month or two, then maybe you consider it.
Cal even has to miss a couple weeks.
I don't think he consider it.
I think he just kind of rolled with what you have because Garber's bat is very important.
You know, he does have 30 home run power, but it is line drive, kind of gap to gap power.
It's not towering fly balls for Garber.
It's a lot of line drives.
He hits the ball very hard.
So he does have 30 home run power.
He can hit, I think he's the type of bat that can perform at T-Mobile Park because he's not going to get the ball up in the air high, up in the air, like Gino-Svarez or Teoscar-Hernard.
And as he gets more of a line drive approach from him.
And it's a good at bat.
He'll give you good at bat every time out.
He hits the ball very hard and consistently,
I feel really confident that Garber is going to perform this year.
It's just about how often can't,
will his body allow him to perform?
And how will the Mariners kind of help manage that?
Because when Garber came back from his injury last year,
the Rangers pretty much just said,
screw it.
He's our full-time DH.
And he played in like 56 in the last 50s.
games and he was one of their best players, such good hitter in fact that he was hitting third
in their postseason run, third or fourth in their postseason run on that juggernaut offense.
So the bat is totally legit.
And the defense is actually fine enough.
It's just you don't want him back there more than for me once every 10 days is pushing it.
If Garber catches more than like 10 games for me, I'm a little, you're pushing your luck there.
But there is a scenario where he might have to catch more than that.
And if that's the case, you're probably going to be fine defensively,
but you should expect less from the bat from Garver just because it is such a physically demanding position.
Agreed.
Agreed. Career high and played appearances was 359 back in 2019.
Now, that was his career year.
That was the year that he slashed 273, 365, 630, which was a good for 155 WRC plus,
31 home runs, career high for him in that department.
as well. Garber has been
one of the more
underrated and better
power hitters in the game.
Minimum thousand played appearances
since 2019. He's 21st
in slinging percentage.
And he does it in a multitude of ways, right?
It's not just over the wallpower. He hits
for a lot of doubles. And
dude gets on base. And more importantly,
here, doesn't strike out a ton.
Career, 25.6% K-rate,
which you can live with.
especially for a power hitter in today's game, that is more than fine.
So that's kind of part of the Mariners, you know,
trying to cut down on the strikeouts or more specifically trying to cut down on having,
you know, five guys in a row running 27 plus K percentages.
So Garver helps in a lot of ways.
And of course, the biggest way is, you know, that DH spot finally given the Mariners,
hopefully as long as he stays healthy
some stability in a spot that has been
a black hole for them
especially this past year before they
eventually got something out of Mike Ford
but even after Ford's contributions
they were still near the bottom of the league
in terms of WRC plus out of their DH spot
so that really
raises the floor
and ceiling of this lineup
as long as Garver is able to stay healthy
so very excited about that addition
but again it's about
protecting him.
And the best way that you can possibly protect him,
keep him essentially in bubble wrap is by not catching him.
But the fact that they've already done it this spring and that he's talked about,
you know,
I haven't put the glove away.
Makes me a little concerned about how much they might catch him,
especially when,
you know,
we're going to talk about these guys a little later on when you have Seppi Zavala and
Blake Hunt,
who don't necessarily have,
you know,
the offensive upside of the other guys you have on your roster and Cal and
in Garver, of course, but pretty good defenders.
And I can live with their lack of offensive upside for a day or two every week.
If it means that I can keep Garver healthy and keep him in that D.H spot.
Remember, Garver signed here knowing full well how good Cal Rale is.
He signed here after they had already traded for Sebi Zavala and Blake Hunt.
Like, there's no surprises here.
So like Garber can say I haven't put the glove away and all that stuff.
And it's like that, that's cute too.
Edgar Martinez owned a glove.
Nelson Cruz owned a glove.
Did they get to use them much when they were here?
No.
So cool.
I'm glad that there's this like break glass in case of emergency thing
where if you have to take a shot on on,
you know,
replacing cow or even just giving them a day off in a crucial,
you know,
in a crucial win in August or whatever.
Can I go to Garber and,
you know, run that risk?
Sure, I can do that once in a while,
but it's over for you, Mitch.
Just sit there.
watch the game, go up, get your four outbats and, you know, come back down and try and hit, you know, try and get your 500 played appearances so you can hit your 25 homers and you can hit your 40 doubles and you can be a, you know, a two-win DH primarily.
And that's, that's the best way that he can help this team.
And I think it's the way the Mariners plan on using him.
But we'll see, you know, it's, who knows, desperate times, call for desperate measures.
Could the Mariners get to a point where they're desperate enough to play him more than they probably should?
Yeah.
I think they could.
It's very possible.
It's very possible, but I think you only do it if, like you mentioned earlier,
if Raleigh is going to miss an extended period of time,
which knock on wood,
hopefully that's a bridge you never have to cross.
Because, yeah, at that point,
if you're in a position where Blake Hunt or Sebi Zavala have to play basically every day,
or your options are either start Garver behind the plate or start those guys every single day,
yeah, I'm probably going with Garber because I probably can't live with Zavala
or Hunt's offense for, you know, five, six days, right?
Right.
At least three, four days a week at that point for Garber.
I don't know if Garber is going to ever catch five games in a week,
even if Cowell is like out for the year.
Again, knock on wood.
But yeah, at that point, you probably do have to catch them at least three times a week
because the guys we're about to talk about, well, intriguing,
far from a sure thing at the major league level.
Right, especially offensively.
So we're going to be getting into those guys.
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You're listening to the Lockdown Mariner's podcast.
Thank you again for making us your first listen
as we preview the Mariners catching situation for 2024.
We've talked about Cal Raleigh.
We've talked about Mitch Garber.
Now let's talk about what's behind, primarily Raleigh at Backstop.
That's Seby Zavala, who the Mariners acquired in the A.U. Henning of Swarge trade from the Arizona Diamondbacks.
And Blake Hunt, who the mariners were able to acquire from the Tampa Bay Rays as a result of the raise yearly roster crunch that they always undergo.
And finally, the marries were able to take advantage of that and get a really interesting prospect in Blake Hunt, who we ranked, what, 20, I believe, in our prospect rankings.
You should probably know that off the top of my head, but I don't. Sorry.
So Sebi Zavala, let's start with him.
What do you think about Sebi Zavala, Colby?
Well, first of all, Sebi Zebi is a G.
So we'll start with that.
I am hip.
So,
gross.
I want to start the whole episode now.
I like the Sebi idea because essentially what you've done is you replaced Tom
Murphy, who I think got what,
two and eight from San Francisco?
So you basically replace Murphy with the guy who's making the league minimum.
And Zavala is a better defender than Murphy.
That's just straight up fact.
No one's going to deny that.
He's better defensively by far.
He was a really good framer last year,
really good blocker.
He's already thrown out a couple of dudes to be on the plate this year in spring training.
Not that that means a ton,
but,
you know,
Murphy couldn't really throw on anybody.
Zavala,
not great at it,
but not as bad.
So defensively,
this is a pure upgrade.
There's really no question.
about that.
Offensively, there are a lot of questions, but you don't have to look too far into the past
to see Zavala actually perform somewhat offensively.
If you look at what he did in 2022, you know, he had 270 with a 347 on base and a 382
slug.
If that's what you get from Zavala this year, you have arguably the best catching situation
in baseball.
I mean, you're already up there as is, right, even if you get nothing.
from Savala offensively.
But if you get that, you're going to have a hard time finding anybody who's going to top that.
So I like Seby.
I like that he brings at the very least well above average defense behind the plate.
He does have some pop.
It's not, you know, it's nothing right home about.
But he can put one into the into the bleachers if need to be.
He also interestingly in 2022, which is kind of the only year he's been a viable majorly
hitter.
And again, only 200 played.
appearances super small sample size.
But interestingly enough,
he actually hit righties a lot better than he had lefties that year.
In 2022,
he hit righties to the tune of 284,
344, 4404.
The nice thing he did against lefties is he had a 356 on base.
So if Zavala
could just be 220,
300,
you know,
any kind of slug doesn't really matter what the slug is.
You can just get on base 30% of the time,
not be a complete disaster.
the plate he's going to be good behind it he's going to be more than viable enough to play
you know semi regularly um then i think that you may have upgraded overall from what murphy gave you
just because a sebby's available b he's a the defense travels you don't have to worry about that
going into a slump and then we'll see what he gives you offensively that is the great question mark
just looking at the track record there's not a ton to believe in with the bat but there is just enough
that you kind of look at and you go okay i mean in about half of is that bad
in his big league career.
He was a viable big league hitter.
So, you know, not a ton there to love, but there is still some upside in the bad.
And like I said, the glove is, it might be the best glove on the team.
It might be better defensively than Cal Raleigh.
It's probably pretty close, but it's very similar at the least, you know, at least.
So of all his value is going to be carried by his, you know, how much he hits.
And if he doesn't hit, the Mariners do have a backup plan.
And it's a pretty good one.
So they're well covered.
So what has to happen in order for Blake Hunt to make this team?
It's not going to be out of camp, but at some point this season.
Is it just Zavala has to be bad and offensively?
Like is it just based off of the bat for Zavala or does he need to get hurt or does Hunt just have to force the mare's hand?
What happens there to get Blake Hunt on this roster?
I think Savala has to be very bad offensively.
like black hole bad, uh, offensively, pretty much if he did what he did last year at the plate
for Arizona at some point, they're going to make that swap. Last year he hit 171, 233, 14. That's just
not viable for any position for any extended period of time. Now, you got to give him, you know,
a couple of opportunities here to show that he can hit at all. Uh, and because he's a backup
catcher, that's not going to happen over like a three week span. I think you probably are going to
carry Zavala assuming health. You're probably going to carry him into at least June before you
give him a shot. He's out of options. So, you know, if you want to make a move there, you got to put
him on waivers. So I think that earliest we could see Hunt barring injury is probably June.
But it's only going to happen if Zavala is a black hole. If semi Zavala is like an 80 WRC plus guy,
you're fine. You're totally fine. That's a legitimate backup catcher who can play once or twice
a week. You know, and if the matchups are right, maybe three times a week, who knows.
So yeah, I think Zavala has to fall flat on his face.
It's got to be like Colton Wong, AJ Pollock bad for a couple months before I think the Mariners even consider calling up Blake Hunt.
Right.
Yeah.
And again, if Raleigh is healthy and Savala is still performing defensively as he has in previous years, I can live with Savala in the lineup once or twice a week if it means that I'm going to get quality defense, especially when, again, again,
You know, when you were playing Tom Murphy over Cal Raleigh, while you were getting some of the offense carried over from Raleigh to Murphy, you were getting nothing defensively out of Murphy, especially in the later years of his tenure in Seattle.
He really struggled to control the run game.
I believe it was 27 stolen bases on 28 attempts allowed by Murphy this past year.
as a vol is going to help
he's going to help in terms of framing
he's just a better defensive catcher
than Murphy is
especially at this point
in both their careers as you noted
so yeah
I think it really
if hunt is just kind of
average down in the minors
like he's not really doing anything that the mirrors
go well we need to get this guy up to the major league level
then I think it's just as a vol it literally has to be like
running a sub one hundred
batting average or something like that
over the course of the first
you know six eight
10 weeks of the season
but other than that
I can live with the lack
of offensive upside if I'm still getting
quality defense and Cal Rale is still
you know playing mostly every day
yeah once you get past the
Zavala and then technically
Garber I guess next man up
is very clearly Blake Hunt
he's an interesting guy
profiles eerily similar
to Tom Murphy, you know, when the mayor's acquired him.
Pretty solid defender, probably a good chance to hit lefties.
He's got a lot of raw power.
He actually handled a slider really well down in the minors last year.
So he is, I think, pretty safe bet to be a viable backup catcher,
somebody who can catch 60 games a year and be totally fine.
And you're not worried about that move.
The beauty about that is that you're paying Hunt and Zavala combined.
less than half of what you would have had to pay Tom Murphy.
So you get Tom Murphy, a younger version of Tom Murphy,
obviously less track record,
but all the same tools,
maybe a little more.
And there's still some upside and hunt.
If he hits just a little bit more,
if you can find a little more consistency,
there's everyday catcher upside.
And by that,
I mean,
what most teams catching situations is,
which is a 1A,
1B, where one guy catches 90 games,
the other catches 70.
The Mariners have a true,
type A catcher who will catch 115 to 130 games, which I think maybe one or two other teams have.
So Hunt can definitely be, you know, a 1A or 1B type, but for now he's a really good backup.
He profiles is a very good backup.
We go down the depth chart here.
Harry Ford, you know, a lot has to happen for Harry Ford to make his debut this year.
I wouldn't count on it at all.
He showed some good things behind the plate defensively, but there's still work to be done there.
And then we'll see if he hits.
he'll be in double a he'll probably be there with Matt Sheffler
local kid undrafted free agent
they signed in 2020 yeah good spring yeah good spring
but he's he's depth he's org depth type of guy he is the
Brian O'Keefe type he is the Joseph Odom type
you know he's just there just in case you know
disaster strikes but he's an org type guy so after
you get through Raleigh Zavala
Hunt's Garber
things start to get a little bit questionable but
That's not a bad thing.
That's not something to panic about because when you look at just baseball as a whole,
who has a better catching situation than the Seattle Mariners this year, maybe Atlanta with Darnow and Murphy.
That's a really good combo.
That's a really good combo.
Maybe Baltimore just because they have Adley.
Yeah.
But even then, like Raleigh and Savala and, you know, Garver versus just Adley.
You know, it's up in there.
The Mariners are a top five catching situation in all baseball.
They have their horse.
They have viable backup plans.
They have backup to the backup plans.
And they have a topish prospect who,
getting close to being ready, we'll say, for his big league debut.
So the Mariners are very well covered here more so than pretty much any organization in baseball.
If you're giving this position group of grade,
it's an A plus.
Like there's literally no other grade that you can give.
and have any credibility whatsoever.
Because it's a very unique
spot that the Marys are in relative
to the rest of the league.
Yeah.
Especially with Raleigh, who is not only
a well above average defender
behind the plate, but he's also
a well above average hitter relative
to other catchers in the league.
That's a very rare player
that you have there in
Cal Rale. And the fact that
if Raleigh goes down,
you know, again, like while we don't like the
idea of Mitch Garver having to catch
but if Mitch Garver
is your alternative
you know if Raleigh has to go down for a significant
period of time then you're in a pretty good
spot and they have
a couple of you know interesting backups
I would say in Zavala
and Hunt who at least
should be able to contribute defensively
and might give you something offensively
especially Hunt all right well that
is going to do it for our show thank you so much
for joining us here on the Lockdown-Ares
podcast for Colby Pat Node
I'm Ty Dane Gonzalez.
Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L.O. underscore Mariners.
You can follow me at Ty Dane Gonzalez and Colby at C-Pat-11.
That's C-P-A-T-1-1.
You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode.
Thank you again for making us your first listen.
Have yourself a beautiful baseball day, and we'll see you next time.
Peace.
