Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Can the Mariners Justify Giving Dominic Canzone the Playing Time He Needs?

Starting point is 00:00:00 How will Dominic Canzon's return from the injured lists impact the rest of the Marra's roster? We'll answer that and more coming up here on Mailbag Monday. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners, your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Ahoy, sailors, it is Monday, August 5th, 2024. This is Ty Deng Azales and Colby Patnaud for the Lockdown Marys Podcasts podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. On today's show, we're going to open up the mailbag like we do here every Monday and answer some of your Mariners questions. But before we do that, shout out to our title sponsor today.

Starting point is 00:00:42 It's Price Picks, the easiest and most exciting way to play daily fantasy sports. Go to Pricepix.com slash Locked On MLB and use the promo code Locked On MLB, that's all lowercase, for a first deposit match, up to $100. And if you want to hear from me and Colby even more and help support the show, check out our Patreon. The link is in the description. And you can sign up for a free seven-day trial. All right, let's get into your questions. We're going to start here with SBR, who wants to know with J.P. Crawford's eventual return, and if Victor Robles keeps this up, what are your thoughts about keeping him in the lead-off spot once the captain comes back?

Starting point is 00:01:17 Yeah. I think, you know, assuming Robles is anywhere close to what he is right now, he's the lead-off hitter. Full stop. Yeah. Now, if he falls off a cliff here over the next couple weeks and, you know, he's really struggling by the time JAP comes back, then maybe you consider making a swap there. But then, even then, I think probably a Rose Arena is the leadoff hitter in that circumstance. So, yeah, I don't think JCP is going to see much time in the leadoff spot.

Starting point is 00:01:46 He shouldn't, at least when he comes back. You know, maybe by the end of the year he could work his way into that, but he just has not been very good this year. So overall, he shouldn't be the leadoff hitter, you know, even if he was healthy right now, and he shouldn't be when he comes back. So, yeah, again, unless Robles completely falls off, which is possible. But unless that happens, then I think he's probably the leadoff hitter for the rest of the season. And if it's not him, I would imagine a Rose Arena and Julio are goals still ahead of him in the packing order there. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:02:19 And if you're going to use JP in the leadoff spot, it should only be against lefties. This year against Wrighty's 1727, 301, that's 70 WRC Plus against lefties 284, 355. It's a 135 WRC plus. So J.P. Crawford, true reverse splits guy this year. So that's the only situation in which you would be justified and putting him in the leadoff spot. Anything else you're just hurting yourself right now, at least with the version of J.P. Crawford we've seen for pretty much all this year. Next question comes from Ham, Swaggerty, 69. Nice. Who is your fourth outfielder? It gets interesting once Julio gets back. Hanager has been swinging the bat better, but can

Starting point is 00:03:00 zone not by much is better defensively and is a lefty does this mean more first base for luke raleigh uh it's tough to say there's not really a good fit here uh the starting outfield is going to be when hulio is back it's going to be hula and left roblest and right like that's just what it's going to be now you might dh a couple of those guys a couple times a week or a different guy to get luke raleigh out there who can play all three outfield spots and raleigh can also play first base so you know turner can dh and raley so raley should still get plenty of app back And he's looking better, you know, still some ugly at bats in there, but also we know what the upside of Luke Grayley is when he's when he's hot.

Starting point is 00:03:40 So you're going to keep giving him opportunity somewhere down the line. Hanager right now is swinging a very good bat since the All-Star break. And we know he's managing right-handed pitching very, very well right now. So you want to get him in the lineup as much as you can against Rides for the moment. But you want to do that primarily at DH. You kind of look around here and you go, okay, well, it Rayleigh's the de facto fourth outfielder and you want Hanneger hitting against Ritey's more than you want Canzone, then Hanager is kind of the fifth outfielder, which would have to make Canzone the sixth outfielder. And the problem with that is that, you know, Dylan Moore has to play shortstop or has to play shortstop every day. He's an everyday player now, which means now you have to carry an additional infielder on your bench.

Starting point is 00:04:28 and that's Rebos. So you can't really send Rebos down for Canzone because you need somebody who can play shortstop in second place, particularly while you're trying to see like how Polanco's knee is going to react on a day-to-day basis. So your backup catcher is Garver so he's not going anywhere. You kind of start to look around and you go, there's really not a spot on the bench for Canzone. Do you even want Canzone on the bench for a week at a time, two weeks at a time?

Starting point is 00:04:56 Or do you want him to play every day and continue to work? on stuff. So the only way I see Canzone making much sense at all is if they actually go with a shortened bullpen, we know that they've always carried 13. They carry the maximum number of pitchers they're allowed to for as long as we can remember. I think this might be one of those cases where they just don't do that. They carry seven guys in the bullpen instead of eight, simply so that they can get Canzone on the roster because you can't send down Rivas and can't DFA Garver. Canzone doesn't help you with the catcher situation. Canzone doesn't play in field. so you're kind of looking around and you're going, you know, where does Canzone fit?

Starting point is 00:05:33 If he's, she shouldn't be getting it. It's going to be Marlowe, right? Like that's what's going to happen here is Marlowe's going to get sent down. They're probably going to wait on moving off from from Vossler because he can play in the infield still. First base, third base. Yeah, yeah. But still, like he gives you something other than just corner outfield, right? Right.

Starting point is 00:05:54 And then when Julio returns, it's probably the corresponding move there is probably Vossler. right um i i think marlowe helps you more off the bench like in a true bench role than canzone does because marl from run you can play some defense uh not something that can zone is particularly known for so uh yeah that'll be the move uh it will be uh marlowe uh but i do wonder maybe they might go with a shortened bullpen at some point here in the next you know few weeks uh simply because they're going to add another arm on september one anyways uh and they have some off days built in here So can they kind of, you know, get away with a shortened bullpen for a couple weeks as they try and figure out what to do with, you know, Bosler and Marlowe? And we've already seen Bossler.

Starting point is 00:06:35 His at-bats have basically shrunk to nothing since the acquisition of Turner. So, yeah, I would have Canzone stay down and play pretty much every day in Tacoma right now and then call him up on September 1 if I wanted to. But yeah, they'll probably send down Marlowe, but I would watch the bullpen as a possibility here. they could go with a short and bullpen if they want to but i mean doesn't really seem likely just considering what they've always done yeah i mean maybe it's vossler but i i just figure that it's going to be marlowe because marlowe's strictly an outfieler and vossler just gives you more options positionally i would say so yeah it's just you know who does who does dominant canzone

Starting point is 00:07:19 get playtime over right now right well not robles not hulio not a Rosarina because against because against Rydies it's all right there's already going to be an odd man out between Rayleigh Turner and Hanager right what's Julio's back of course right which could be you know as soon as this weekend

Starting point is 00:07:43 right so it's not even a thing that's really that far down the road that it's like well we'll just figure it out once we get there right it's like well we're it seems like we might already almost be there So we'll see. Yeah, I just don't know how you're going to get Canzone enough playing time. How you're going to get Rayleigh enough playing time?

Starting point is 00:08:03 How are you going to get Hanager enough playing time while he's hot? You want to try and extract as much value as you can until that runs out again. And then obviously you won Justin Turner in the lineup as much as possible. Right. So, yeah, I don't know. It's going to be interesting to see how they kind of work through it. It's a good problem to have, at the very least. We are going to answer more of your questions here in just a moment.

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Starting point is 00:09:51 All right. Let's give it to your questions here on Mailbag Monday. Mariners Navigator wants to know. How many more days is Taylor Sossato on the active roster? Related, maybe, when is Troy Taylor getting called up? I think Soss should probably be done now. We've seen him come in and be used pretty much like a traditional Lugie and epically fail over the last week. He really didn't pitch the last week up until the All-Star game at all.

Starting point is 00:10:21 in any situation. I think he appeared once in the last week before the All-Star break. Now since he's come back, he's been, frankly, garbage. He's been your worst pitcher out of the bullpen. So, you know, I know the Mariners really like lefty-lefty and all that stuff, but if your lefty is pitching terribly and he's facing the best lefties in the league, it doesn't really matter if it's lefty-lefty. He's going to make a mistake.

Starting point is 00:10:44 And we saw that happen yesterday to really essentially end any chance you had of winning that game. Like, you didn't have a great shot anyways, but you did have a shot and then Saucato just ruined any kind of opportunity you had. So, yeah, again, kind of like what we talked about with Stanik, you know, when service kept on going to him, like, yeah, Scott wants to keep on playing this matchup game and he wants to keep giving the veteran opportunities and it's on Jerry Depoto to not give him that option anymore. Saucato has options left. You can send him down.

Starting point is 00:11:19 You know, he can certainly come back up in September. there's some things to work on because prior to July, sauce was pretty good. So obviously there's still a good pitcher in there somewhere. You're just not getting it right now and you can't waste these opportunities by going to a guy who's trying to figure it out. So to me, sauce is toast like he should be down in the miners today. They should make that move today.

Starting point is 00:11:44 And I just, I don't trust him like at all. So he's the guy I trust the least in that bullpen right now, which is really saying something. And it has been just a massive struggle for him. Really, it was a struggle in Boston. It was a struggle against Philly. And so to me, like, he's just not a major league quality guy at the moment. It's very mediocre stuff.

Starting point is 00:12:04 And the command is terrible right now. Control is not even that good either. He had an outing the other night. I think it was in Boston where he threw like 17 pitches and only six of them were strikes. Like he's just not a major league quality pitcher right now. And you don't have time to figure that out. so yeah yeah uh yeah send him down yeah obviously sauce has a lot of fans uh he's a fan favorite of course and i heard from some of those fans yesterday on twitter when i said that sauce should probably be

Starting point is 00:12:32 sent down you know i heard things like uh you know maybe he's going through something mentally that's all the more reason for you to to send him down to a zero pressure situation in tacoma and let him get right right because we know what sauce can be we know what sauce has been and if you can get him back to where he was, then that's a legitimate option out of the bullpen moving forward. But I don't know if you're going to be helping him any, especially if he's going through, you know, something mentally, whether or not that's related to his struggles on the field right now. You're not going to be able to help him figure that out by letting him throw against Bryce Harper. Right. So let him go down to Tacoma for a little while, work on some things, get right, and then, you know, he'll probably get called back up at some point if he's able to get back on track.

Starting point is 00:13:19 Next question here from Matthew Johnson. The Mariners almost exclusively used players that were drafted in 23 to upgrade their roster at the deadline. With that knowledge and also four-fifths of your rotation being drafted, what draft has been the best since Scott Hunter has been in charge of them? I think there's like three really good options here. It's hard to go wrong with 2018, though. Logan Gilbert and Cal Raleigh.

Starting point is 00:13:45 Yeah. it's tough to put really any kind of stock in the recent drafts the last three or four because none of those guys have made it to the big leagues right like it's tough to say oh they drafted Harry Ford and so and so this year that's their best one and it's like well those guys aren't big leaguers yet so you know like which one do I like them I really like what they did last year you know where they got Emerson and they got Pete and they got Armello like that one looks like that's going to be a great draft but none of those guys are even close to the big leagues yet so it's kind of tough to pick that draft so i look at

Starting point is 00:14:19 2019 they go with george kirby uh who leads baseball and f or pitcher f war right now um brandon williamson who was a big piece uh was in the castillo trade or was he in the uh i think he was the gno trade uh sorry sorry williamson you said yeah yeah he was the winker yeah he was in the winker deal Yeah, they got Isaiah Campbell in the third, who turned in a very good year for them in his one year here, and then you were able to flip him. Levi Stout, who you traded to the Reds as well. Austin Shetton, who was in the Diego Castillo trade. He's in the big leagues right now. You know, he drafted Adam Maco, who was kind of an important piece in the Teoscar Hernandez trade.

Starting point is 00:15:04 So, yeah, Carter Benz also drafted that year. He got you a couple of years of Tyler Anderson. K. Marlowe was a 20th round pick. Take out you a couple months, Tyler Anderson. You said years. Oh, sorry. A couple months of Tyler Anderson. So yeah.

Starting point is 00:15:20 And then just a fun one to throw in there. It didn't matter because they didn't sign him. But Christian Arc, Christian and Carnaccio and Strand was actually drafted by the Mariners that year in the 34th round. But, yeah, to me, it's 2019, just because, again, Kirby, you know, borderline ace right now. And then you got a bunch of guys that either gave you at least a year. and some change of value at the big league level. Or are you able to flip for significant impact players like A. E. E. E. E. Hineos-Warez and Luis Castillo.

Starting point is 00:15:50 Yeah. Deigo Castillo. So, and then you even got a little sweetener at the back end of your draft here. You drafted Travis Coon, who's, you know, close to Major League Reddy. You drafted Cade Marlowe. Who's giving you a little something, something here at the big league level. So I think 2019 is probably the best in terms of like what draft you actually got the most out of. probably 2018 yeah with i mean Logan and cow that that's tough to be yeah 100% all right we are going to answer a couple more of your questions here in just a moment but first a reminder this

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Starting point is 00:17:22 And you're listening to the Lockdown Marries podcast. Once again, tomorrow you can catch all the action between the Marrers and the Tigers on the Marriss hometown broadcast with SiriusXM via the SXM app. All you have to do to find that is search the word Mariners. All right, we got a couple more questions to answer here on Mailbag Monday. This one comes from Jeff. Why did they claim Jonathan? Hernandez off of waivers.

Starting point is 00:17:44 Hernandez is someone that we saw yesterday make his marriage debut. Of course, former Rangers reliever. Why do you think they like Hernandez, Colby? Slyder's pretty good. It's really good whiff rates on the slider. And he's a sinker slider guy. Velocity is not a problem with him.

Starting point is 00:18:06 He throws very hard. But I do think that this is mostly about the slider. He had an option. left so you can kind of you know put them down in triple a they don't really have a ton of quality depth pieces in the bullpen down in triple a right now a lot of the guys that we thought were going to be really good middle middle you know inning step they have all really struggled at choydrable tie butt free no longer in the org even yeah uh yeah uh carlos vargas just hasn't figured it out and and so uh you know you start looking down that list they could use somebody

Starting point is 00:18:41 and so now he's up at the big league level. But yeah, the slider is his best pitch. And I think the Mariners plan here is probably just to ask him to throw the slider more. Now, he throws it 49% of the time. So it's not like he doesn't throw it a ton. But we know that the Mariners have no issue asking guys with great sliders to, can you throw it 60% of the time? You know, so when you look at Hernandez's a slider,

Starting point is 00:19:10 this year opponents are hitting 214 off of it with a 357 slug and a 38.8% whiff rate. Meanwhile, the sinker opponents are hitting 317 with a 583 slug. So to me, this is just like, hey, let's take a shot. It's a good arm. Average basketball below 97 miles an hour. He gets chases and he gets whiffs, mostly with the slider. That's a pretty good pitch for him. And he gets a lot of ground balls because he is a sinker slider guy.

Starting point is 00:19:39 So even though they're, you know, he does have some exit feelow issues, typically those balls are on the ground. He's not giving up a lot of, you know, hard hit line drives with fly balls. So I think this is mostly just about, hey, let's, you know, potential middle guy here. Let's have him throw the slider a little bit more. Let's make our tweak. See if it takes. We get, you know, a couple of weeks here before we have to make a decision on him. And let's see we can basically add another JT-Shargawa type into the middle of our bullpen for free.

Starting point is 00:20:06 So I think it's just an interesting arm who has. some good metrics on a pitch that the Mariners like. And I think this is going to be pretty, you know, as simple as like, hey, just throw your slider more. And then we'll see if we can maybe tweak something mechanically so that you have a little bit more command and control over the sinker. Right. You know, and last year, having watched a lot of Rangers games because I was, you know,

Starting point is 00:20:30 standings watching, you know, scoreboard watching, I saw quite a lot of Jonathan Hernandez last year, especially late in games for that Rangers bullpen, which was obviously a disaster for, for the whole year, especially in the second half. Hernandez is one of those guys where it's like some games. He can't find the strike zone and it's kind of a disaster and the walks are going to rack up. And, you know, it's probably going to lead to at least a couple of runs being scored. And then there's some other games where he's just going to shred through the guys that he ends up facing. So Mary's taking a shot here that the latter is what they're getting.

Starting point is 00:21:05 And maybe they, you know, they tap into that slider a bit more and really ellixtap. of eight Hernandez. Last question of the day comes from John as a general benchmark at what point do you look at a prospect and say they are ready for the majors and how would this evaluation change between evaluating top prospects versus, you know, AAA depth or I guess, you know, lottery tickets is essentially what he's, what he's getting out there. So yeah, when do we, I guess as fans or as content creators, you and I Colby, kind of look at prospects with just the limited data and information that we have, right?

Starting point is 00:21:44 We don't have all the info that, of course, the organization does to these decisions. But yeah, when for you do you kind of determine like, hey, this guy deserves a shot? There's no, you know, cookie cutter method here because obviously a guy who went to college and, you know, played for three years at a high level in college typically needs less time than a kid who went to high school and got dropped it out of high school. Obviously, you're not seeing anywhere close to the same level of competition. And, you know, typically one is 23 years old when they get drafted. One is 18 when they get drafted. So there's a huge age gap there. So there really isn't, you know, a unified, you know, theory here. And plus there are outliers, right? Like Juan Soto might only need 300 plate

Starting point is 00:22:30 appearances at 19 years old to prove that he's major league ready, whereas, you know, Josh Donaldson didn't really break out until he was 29 years old. So, you know, it's, there's is no one size fits all here i think when i look at it um first thing i'm looking at is like what type of player are you like what is your your calling card are you a you know are you a prep power guy like his power your calling card you probably need more at bats than like a really polished like you know 18 19 year old a high school guy or a really polished you know uh you know draft eligible sophomore uh so for example i think last montess is going to need more at bats and somebody like Cole Young because Cole Young is closer to a finished product than Montes is.

Starting point is 00:23:15 So it really does depend. Typically speaking, for a high school prep guy, I think 1500 plate appearances in the minors is a pretty normal benchmark. That's about three full years of playing time. So when you're a prep guy, if you get to 1500, it'll be about 21, 22, depending on when you actually start that summer you get drafted or wait a year. But yeah, you'll be 21, 22. by then you probably, although not always, you probably are at least in high A or double A.

Starting point is 00:23:46 So you're starting to face that upper echelon level of pitching. So, you know, for me, that's the only two is like you have to at least be at double A. And honestly, for me, I would like you to have some AAA seasoning. Some guys don't need it. Julio didn't need it, right? But, you know, Kyle Lewis didn't need it. Cal Raleigh did need it. Jared Kelnick did need it.

Starting point is 00:24:07 So the mayors have kind of hit and miss by calling guys straight up double a but you know for the most part uh i i do think that bats in particular triple a is kind of an important step uh but i think you're looking at 1500 plate appearances lots of experience i think you're looking at success at each level before you get sent up and then again it really depends on what type of hitter are you are you a big are you big you know home run hitter well then you know i i'm maybe willing to overlook strike out rate a little bit as long as it's not totally out of control. Whereas if you're Cole Young and you're in, you know, double A and you're racking up a 28% strikeout rate, no, you're not ready. Clearly you're

Starting point is 00:24:47 not ready because that can't be a part of your game. Remember, AAA is significantly harder than double A and the majors is a whole other animal on its own. So yeah, there's no like basis here for comparison. I think you're just looking at, he's kind of have to know. It's kind of a gut feel thing. And you look at and you say, when was this guy drafted? What was his upside? What was his original ETA. What is he doing now at the minor league level? And it all kind of goes into this decision of like, do I think he's ready? Probably.

Starting point is 00:25:16 So or probably not. So I do think a general baseline for me is that you're drafted out of high school, your prep, 1,500 played appearances in the minors, preferably a decent chunk of those coming, you know, against double A or better before I would consider calling you up. But there are outliers to that rule. So you just have to watch.

Starting point is 00:25:37 And, you know, you watch the player, you read about the player, you listen to the player, you can tell a lot of the times when somebody is just, they're too good. They're too good for this level. Sometimes it's really obvious. Most of the time, it's really obvious. But sometimes, you know, you just got to be a little bit patient. Yeah. And with pitchers, it really just comes down to stuff and command control. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:25:59 Yeah. If you have at least one plus offering, I'm like, okay. Yeah, you like, it's probably time to, yeah, it's probably time to at least take a shot on you. Right. Assuming there's an opening and all that stuff. But yeah, the prep, because you're drafting college guys, because you're drafting high school guys, because you're signing 16-year-olds, the timeline's fluctually greatly. So, you know, sometimes Ronald Acuna Jr. can come up at 19 and just tear, you know, tear baseball a new one. And sometimes Mike Trow can come up at 20 and have to go back to AAA because he just struggled so bad. So, you know, there's outliers.

Starting point is 00:26:36 every, probably not every year, but there's outliers everywhere. But the important thing is that you can't overreact. You can't look at this and say, well, Colt Emerson's going to be an outlier. Las Montes is going to be an outlier based on what? Based on, you know, for Emerson, 150 played appearances at A ball? No, that that's not a thing. And by the way, we've seen Las Montes go up and everybody was like so sure he might, you know, he might be challenging for an opening day roster spot next.

Starting point is 00:27:06 year, which was ridiculous always. And now he struggled at Everett, which is good. There's nothing wrong with a guy going up and struggling. That's part of development. So, like, nobody should be concerned about Las Montes because he hasn't performed right away at A ball or at high A ball. Right. These things take adjustment times and sometimes, you know, you'd rather be, you'd rather

Starting point is 00:27:29 be like a couple months late on a guy calling him up than a couple months too early because a couple months too early can shatter somebody's confidence. A couple months too late, I mean, all you really did there is you missed out on a couple months of a guy who could have been helping you. And you'll never know, really. No, no, you won't. But oftentimes, like, the things like, oh, they called him up too early and ruined his career.

Starting point is 00:27:53 Not really a thing. Not as much as some people make it out to be. But you absolutely can't stunt the growth and development of a player by calling him up and having him sit for weeks at a time by, you know, keeping him up at the big leagues when he's clearly overmatched and he just kind of refuse to send him down. And the mayors have made those mistakes in the past. Haven't seen a ton of that with Jerry in Justin's regime. You could argue maybe they did that with Kelnick.

Starting point is 00:28:21 Based on what Kelnick's done in Atlanta this year, I'd say that just kind of looks like who Jared Kelnick's going to be. But yeah, they're pretty good at this. And obviously the drafting developing, they're very good. They're also pretty darn good at knowing when it's time, when somebody needs to look. when they don't for the most part. They're not perfect, but they're pretty good at it. And that's part of development is knowing when it's time to challenge somebody

Starting point is 00:28:43 with the next step. And by the way, Michael Arroyo looks like he might be ready for double A because he is way too good for Hay A Everett and that guy's 19 years old. So, or 20. But yeah, there's no like one formula. For me, 1500 at bats for a prep guy or plate appearances. Yeah. $700 to $1,000 for a college guy,

Starting point is 00:29:11 unless there is insane defensive value there. Those are just general guidelines. And then I'd like to see them have success, at least at AA if you're a hitter. You're a pitcher. I'm just looking for stuff in command, really. Yeah. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:29:24 Michael O'Royo is still 19, by the way. And he won't turn 20 until November 3rd. And for those of you wondering, he's slashing 264-396-479. 148 WRC plus down in Everett. All right. That is going to do it for our show. But before we get out of here, a reminder that Lockdown has launched the first ever national sports 24-7 streaming channel on YouTube.

Starting point is 00:29:50 And now it's also available on Amazon Fire TV and the free Fire TV channels app. Locked on Sports Today is here for you 24-7 covering the top sports stories of the day with the local experts of Locked-on. Plus our national shows covering every league. Find Locked-on Sports Today now available on the free free. fire TV channels app. Thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Mariners podcast for Colby Pat Node. I'm Tadangazales.

Starting point is 00:30:12 Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Mariners. You can follow me at Tideangazales, Colby at C-Pat-11 at CPAT-1-1. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. Now head on over to Lockdown Seahawks to get all the latest out of training camp from Corbyn Smith and the gang and tell him Ty and Colby sent you. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day. We'll see you next time. Peace.

Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Can the Mariners Justify Giving Dominic Canzone the Playing Time He Needs?

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