Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Can the Mariners Still Make the Playoffs?

Episode Date: June 30, 2022

The uphill climb continues for the Mariners as they get set for a big four-game set against the visiting Athletics, who enter Thursday with the worst record in the American League. What would a series win or sweep do for Seattle's playoff chances? Hosts Ty Dane Gonzalez and Colby Patnode discuss.Be sure to follow or subscribe to Locked On Mariners wherever you prefer your podcasts! For questions and other inquiries, email: [e-mail] the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @danegnzlz | @CPat11 | @InsideMarinersFor more of Ty and Colby, check out their Patreon: patreon.com/controlthezone/Sports Card InvestorDownload the Sports Card Investor App today and easily browse over 630K cards from every sport, with hundreds more added each week . Available for free in the Google Play and Apple App stores or go to sportscardinvestor.com/lockedon.Blue NileMake your moment sparkle with jewelry from Bluenile.com, and LOCKED ON SPORTS listeners get $50 off purchases of $500 or more using code LOCKEDON.Rock AutoAmazing selection. Reliably low prices. All the parts your car will ever need. Visit RockAuto.com and tell them Locked On sent you. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The uphill climb continues for the Seattle Mariners. Up next, a four-game set with the Oakland Athletics at Team Mobile Park. Let's get you set for it here on the Lockdown Mariners podcast. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked-on podcast network, your team every day. It is Thursday, June 30th, 2020, and thank you so much for making us your first listen of the day.

We are free and available on all platforms. I am your host, Tiding Gonzalez, joined us. always by McCos. Colby Patnode. We cover the Mariners over at Inside the Mariners.com for Fan Nation over on the Sports Illustrated Network. Be sure to follow the show on Twitter at L0 underscore Mariners. Follow Inside the Mariners at Inside Mariners. You can follow me at Dane Gonzalez, this D-A-N-ZL-Z and Colby at C-Pat 11. Be sure to also check out our Patreon at patreon.com forward slash control of zone.

We post two additional podcasts on there every single week. And if this is your first time joining us here on the Lockdown Mariners podcast, Welcome to the show. If you like what you hear, give us a follower, subscribe wherever you're listening to this. And if you're watching us on YouTube, hit the subscribe button,

turn on the notification bell and give this video a thumbs up. We greatly appreciate it. The Mariners are beginning a four-game set with the Oakland Athletics down at T-Mobile Park later tonight. We'll get you set for that series. We're also going to be talking about some draft scenarios,

what we'd prefer the Mariners to do. We're also going to look at the standings and how far out the Mariners are from a playoff spot. here as we near the halfway point in the season. But first, let's get into this series. Four games set with the A's. This is a big opportunity for the Mariners right here.

They are 36 and 41 after winning their third consecutive series yesterday against the Orioles. The A's have been terrible. No way around it. They are 25 and 52. They are record-wise the worst team in the American League. Obviously, they have some talent pitching. wise especially but this is a very beatable team a team that the mariner swept down in oakland quite frankly didn't have much business sweeping them down in oakland but especially in that last game

but hey we'll take it and hopefully that success continues for the mariners into this series because colby i don't know about you but i think the mariners need to you absolutely win three here and i think it's a very real possibility that they could get a four game sweep opportunity is certainly there. Yeah, it'll be a little difficult. They're going to have to go through Montes again, assuming he's still on the team by Sunday. I think he will be, but you never know.

Blackburn handled him just fine last time around. Didn't handle him so well the first time around, so we'll see. Oakland's certainly got some pitching. And the Mariners' offense is, let's say, suspect. There's also the looming suspensions. We know that's going to come down sometime in this series. So we don't know if they'll be

without Jesse Winker or J.P. Crawford in this series because Jerry DiPoto has already said that they will stagger those suspensions. We don't know if Julio's going to miss a game or two, but we don't know a little tough to know how full of a deck the Mariners will be working with. can pitch. But again, your favorite Adrian Martinez, who's got

stuff, but it's his second career start. And Caprillion, he was good against you last time, but he's, you know, and like I said, Blackburn, you kind of handled him last time. It feels like he's starting to kind of revert back to who he's always been. And then you have Montes and you have to try and find a way to win that game. But the good news there is you'll be countering

with Robbie Ray, who's been, you know, sensational. So we'll see on paper at least they should come away with three or four, but suspensions and injuries. And I mean, you remember, they didn't have, they had Thai France for the first two games last time they played Oakland. So we'll see how it goes. The Mariners pitching staff would feel pretty good about Oakland's lineup is not formidable. So I feel like they should be able to hold them down long enough to take three or four.

But will the offense be able to pick up? to slack a little bit. I guess we'll find out, but it's not going to be easy because we know that they are going to lose either J.P. Crawford or Jesse Winker at some point in this series. Yeah, and potentially Julio.

We'll see about that. Yeah, Jerry DePoto is saying that, you know, they still haven't found anything that would suggest that Julio deserves to be suspended. So hopefully that is, you know,

addressed in the appeal and the suspension is either erased or it's limited to just one game instead of two. And they basically just treat it as an off day for Julio, which he probably needs anyway. I mean, he's a young guy. He's 21 years old, but everyone needs a break here and there. And he's played a lot here as of late. So, yeah, that would be probably the best possible outcome here, the most realistic outcome for Julio. And if you're going to have him miss a game over the next week or so,

probably best to do it in this series rather than against the Padres and the Blue Jays who are coming up next. And that's why this series is so important as well, because you got two coming up with the Padres down in San Diego. It's a weird two-game road trip that they're going to be going starting on Monday on the 4th of July. and then they come back home and they get the Blue Jays for four and that's going to be a very, very difficult series for them.

Obviously we saw you know how much they were just straight up outplayed in those first two games in Toronto and that could be that could be a series where the Mariners end up losing three or four and hopefully no more than that.

But yeah, any sort of protection they can give themselves heading into those series is crucial. And this is the way to do it is against the A. It's the worst team in the American League, like I said. So, you know, they need to win three or four here. And a sweep would be amazing.

Plus that would get them to 40 and 41, just game under 500. That's where they need to be. You know, they need to get above 500 here before the All-Star break. And that would be huge for them. Because I would assume that they are. are going to lose a little bit of ground in the you know after the san diego and toronto series just the right now with the injuries the suspensions and just the overall talent disparity between them and the and the Padres and the blue jays suggests they're probably not going to fare pretty

well in those series so but hey who knows it's baseball and the mariners do some wild stuff sometimes so maybe they end up taking five of those six games or something somehow um but most likely you want to prepare for for some failures in those series and so to do that you want to win all you want to win at least three or four of these games yeah a sweep kind of buys them a one disaster series um so a sweep would mean that they can lose three or four to toronto and still be on pretty good track as long as they split with san diego um so yeah you know it's it's you have this four game series the next 10 games it sure feels like you have to find a way to go six and four at least and obviously if you win all four against oakland you only need two out of six against two teams

that are in they're playing better or at least they have throughout the course of the entire year so we'll see how it goes like i think you have to win three or four here i suspect we'll see Scott be pretty aggressive in trying to win tonight's game. Because just having that first one in your back pocket increases your margin of error significantly. So like I said, we'll see a sweep is certainly possible. I never count on a sweep in a four game series. It's incredibly hard to do. But it certainly is possible.

And obviously, if you're really looking to announce your presence with authority in the wild card chase, then you probably need to take all four. of these. Yeah, that would be the most beneficial outcome for the Seattle Mariner's to be sure. So like you mentioned, you know, they, they're going to need to keep, you know, climbing this hill and, you know, stay relevant in the wild card race here because obviously the division, that's a long lost hope there. So wild card is really the only focus here for the Mariners in terms of playoff aspirations.

And so we're going to be looking at the standings. A little standings update for you and kind of just look at some of the teams that they're going to need to leapfrog. They've got five teams ahead of them right now. We'll be going over that in just a moment. But real quick, a reminder of this episode of Lockdown Mariners is brought to you by LinkedIn. As the sun comes out and small businesses are back in business, LinkedIn jobs makes it easier to grow your team. LinkedIn jobs helps you find the people you want to interview faster and for free. Create a free job post in minutes on LinkedIn jobs to reach your network and beyond to the world's

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So let's take a look at the standings here for the Seattle Mariners and the Wild Card. Right now, you know, they got five teams that they, that they need to leapfrog. But three of them, this is the good news here, is that three of them, they're only a game and a half back of at most. That's the Angels, the Rangers,

and the Chicago White Sox. Then they're about four and a half games behind the Cleveland Guardians for the first team out. And then five and a half back of the Tampa Bay raise for the third and final wild card spot. And then, you know, the Red Sox and the Blue Jays, they're kind of neck and now for the first and second wild card spot.

So all these teams are pretty much clustered together. And no team is really distancing themselves from the rest of the pack. And one bad week for any of these teams could really, really help the Mariners. Obviously, the Mariners are also going to have to play pretty good baseball over that stretch as well. But, you know, right now the Mariners have a pretty good opportunity. And, you know, looking at their schedule just down the line over the next three months, they've gotten a lot of their most difficult series out of the way. The schedule is fairly easy.

Obviously they're going to have matchups against the Yankees. They got another matchup against the Blue Jays coming up. There's going to be difficult teams. They still have to play the Guardians twice this year. They're going to have to play the Rangers a bunch. They're going to have to play the Angels a bunch. They still got the White Sox one more time. And they got two more series against the Astros.

But things are starting to look a little more favorably for the Mariners, at least schedule-wise. And right now, like I said, you know, honestly, if they do what we were just talking about in this A series where they sweep or they at least win three or four, they might very well surpass the White Sox Angels and Rangers this week. And that would certainly help with things. That means that they would only have to leapfrog two teams at that point. But it's still, you know, very early.

Teams are going to go up and down. It's going to happen. Things are, you know, that's just how things naturally go. But the Mariners still need to dig themselves out of the same. hole. You know, they, they, uh, were able to leapfrog the Orioles, uh, with their series win, uh, this, uh, this past week. And so now it's just, uh, you know, it's just trying to get past each team one at a time. Um, so, Colby, looking at these standings, you know, just kind of how, how do you feel about the, uh, the team's chances right now where they stand?

Well, thank you for finally allowing me to, uh, speak. But, uh, you kind of hogged all, all the attention there, buddy. But, no, I think one of the things we're looking at here when you look at these standings, nobody in this conversation that you just talked about is playing better baseball than the Seattle Mariners right now. The Red Sox have won eight of their last 10, but they're not the team you're really chasing right now. You kind of look at who's playing well right now. Pretty much everybody in this discussion is four and six or five and five, except for the Mariners who are seven and three in their last 10.

So Mariners are kind of trending up, albeit slowly. The White Sox, you know, we keep waiting for them to wake up and be the team we all thought they were going to be. But that team is horribly mismanaged by Tony Larusa. There are some issues on that roster. And it's just, you know, they keep, they're dealing with some significant injuries at the moment. So they're a very vulnerable team right now. The Angels, we know who the Angels are. We know what they're about.

They're garbage. they're going to fade. The Rangers, you're going to get to play a lot, and you've played pretty well against them. But, you know, you're going to have to continue to play that well. And then like you said, you get Cleveland for, I think, seven games. And is Cleveland significantly more talented than Seattle? No, they're not. So none of these teams are uncatchable.

And, you know, we talk about some of the rough patches in the Mariners. in the Mariners schedule where they have to play the Yankees, I think six times in nine days or something like that. Yeah, that's brutal. But you know who has to play the Yankees a lot more than the Mariners? The Red Sox, the Blue Jays, the Rays, the Rays. So those teams kind of an issue. Cleveland has to play the White Sox.

Cleveland has to play all those other teams too. In Seattle, by the way, still has plenty of games left against Detroit, Kansas City, and Oakland, those are the three worst. teams in baseball, at least in the American League. So there's a shot here. And typically we were five games or we were five teams behind the playoff spot this late in the year. You're already looking at it going, well, it's going to take a minor miracle to

make this happen. But it's not because the day after tomorrow, you can literally be, you know, three games back of being the first team out with 81 games to go. So the Mariners, despite, it's not looking good. And they clearly shouldn't be considered the favorites. And I'm not saying you should get your hopes up. I still think they're probably like a 10% chance to make the playoffs. But based on where they were even a week ago, that's pretty significant.

And because they're going to play basically every team ahead of them, a semi-substantial amount of times, they still can very much make some noise here. they got to get healthy they got to add some talent but they are not out of this by any stretch and you know it's it's just one game at a time try and dig yourself out of the hole and I guess the goal for today is to surpass the white socks

yeah so like you mentioned like you mentioned though they you know they got games against the A's still plenty of games against the A's including you know this series coming up they got three more against the rolls they got seven more against the tigers and of course you know the that was you know they were supposed to open the season against the tigers before the lockout happened and so they're going to be making those games up in the final series of the year in october and then you know they got three against the

washington nationals as well who were you know one of the worst teams in baseball right now and that's coming up pretty soon here so you know things at least schedule wise are looking up for the mariners it's just you know can they survive all these injuries Can they survive all these suspensions? And can they just play, you know, better baseball more consistently? And can they survive to, you know, all the way to the, to the trade deadline where they can get better? Because, you know, they have the tools to get better. They have all the assets that they really need to get better and get significantly better and to add more probability to their roster.

But it's just are they going to be able to stay afloat long enough where that's going to matter? you know where it still makes sense for them to do that and i'm talking about not just adding guys that are going to help you in 2023 as well talking rentals guys that are going to help you right now that are going to help you get to the postseason this year and that might not end up being you know back with you next year uh because you're going to have to do some of that uh if you want to be able to compete here uh just from a cost of acquisition standpoint and just a fit standpoint as well. So they need to keep on winning games here. Like we said, you know, it would be preferable if they're above 500 by the time the All-Star break begins. And at that point, you know, we'll see, you know,

they, again, you know, aside from the Padres and the Blue Jays series, the schedule lines up very well for them. They have plenty of opportunities to, to rattle off the games necessary to get above 500. But it's just, you know, again, it's about the injuries, the suspensions and just stay in a float. So we'll see if they're able to do that. Avoid disaster. Yeah, basically. Don't lose five in a row. All right.

Even in that's tough stretch, even in those tough stretches, you have to find a way to win one or two of those games. Just to keep your head above water. Because honestly, even if we get to the All Star break, the All Star game and the standings look basically like they are now where Seattle still has five teams to pass. But they can pass three or four of them with a good weekend series. then Seattle's probably still going to buy. Maybe not as aggressively on the rentals as we would like, but they're still going to buy. That's the case.

And like you said, if they are around 500 and they're the first or second team out and they're only three games back, then I think that all the rentals are in play. It's just a matter of whether or not the Mariners feel it necessary to pay the extra that it costs to acquire rentals at the, at the trade deadline. So next up, we're going to be talking a little bit about next month's draft. We've talked a lot about guys that we would like the Mariners to target with their first pick at number 21.

But we're more so going to go broad with our discussion today and just kind of talk about how we want the Mariners to approach the draft next month. And just a moment, but real quick, a reminder of this episode, Lockdown Mariners is brought to you by the sports card investor app. Now, Colby and I have run a few card giveaways in the past. and they've always done pretty well, so I assume we have quite a few investors and casual card collectors tuning into it. We have a great new app to tell you about the sports card investor app. It is a one-stop shop for all your card collecting needs. You can check the market activity and trends for over 630,000 cards, see all the eBay listings

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or you can go to sportscardinvestor.com forward slash locked on. This episode of Lockdown, Mariner's is also brought to you by BetOnline. Betonline.com. Net is your number one source for all your betting needs and sports info. Find all the latest sports developments, league reviews and news, including this year's NHL playoffs and Major League Baseball. Bet Online is your continued source for all your sporting, wagering information, including live betting, e-sports, and scores.

And betonline.net remains the best spot for all your sports scores, podcasts, and news this season. It is the fastest and easiest way to check in on all your favorite sports and events, including MMA, boxing, and golf. So head to the website today or use your mobile device to learn more about the trends and action. Bet Online is where the game starts. So I'll just ask you this right out of the gate. Colby, how would you like the Mariners to approach the draft next month? Would you like them to maybe go underslot in the first round and try to get up, you know,

pick up another first round talent in the second? Obviously, that's easier said than done theory. But would you just like them to go best player available? How would you like to see Jerry Depoto and Scott Hunter and crew go after this? Just get good players. it really is that simple yeah it's it's kind of interesting because the mariners do have the extra comp round b pick this year but they did lose their third round pick so they have a little more money in the

in you know available to them in their draft pool than they would have had normally but it's not significantly because the difference between the comp round b and the third round pick is I think it's 400 grand roughly. So it's not huge amount. But it is something that they can play with if they so choose. This is an interesting draft class because really the college pitching, which Jerry and his crew have focused so heavily on, it's not great at the top. There are a lot of guys who are, I would say, belong somewhere in the 15 to 25 range.

which is right where the Mariners picks. But there's no top 10 arms in this draft class, at least not from the college perspective. There's some decent depth in the college pitching ranks, but it'll be interesting to see where the Mariners want to go with that because traditionally they've gone college and they've gone college pitcher. Now, it's not like it's been like 10 college pitchers to one college position player. It's two college position players early.

There's been a prep guy. there's been three college pitchers with their first picks. So it's pretty even mixed out of the six picks. So it's not like a huge difference. But traditionally they like to go college pitching. I don't know if that's going to be an option for them this year. So you kind of look at what they want to do. I think this might be a good year to kind of do what they did with Evan White and Sam Carlson,

which is you take a guy at 21 for slot or slightly below slot. and then you pay your second round pick like a first rounder to get him to sign with you. And then the rest of the draft, you kind of look for very specific role players and very specific. You're looking for very specific like tools that a certain player has. Like that year they drafted Wyatt Mills and they really liked the numbers on his fastball and the funky delivery. They thought he was a pretty safe bet to be a good reliever at the major league level. it didn't really work but nothing in the 2017 draft has really worked as planned so sometimes that happens so I think they have a shot to do that here one of the names they might do that with

in terms of just you know second round pick they take they take Thomas Arentine who's a guy I like in the first they're probably going to save 600 grand or so and then maybe they grab you know Washington's own J.R. Richie in the in the second round to pay him two million dollars to forego college. So I think this is a decent year to do that, but if they're not going to do that, then I would just go best college bat available. Pretty decent class for up the middle college bats. Yeah. I would like to see them go up the middle. That's obviously a pretty big weakness of the Mariners, especially guys that are a little more advanced, right? You know, because they got Edwin O'Royle, but he's still at least a couple years off.

They got a, you know, a couple of other prep guys that, you know, that are interesting, but they're still far away, right? So, um, we'd like to maybe see a college bat that comes up the middle, preferably shortstop or second baseman. We've talked about quite a few guys, right? Um, on, on that front. And so, um, yeah, because, you know, it's just like that's, that's kind of a big area of weakness. You obviously cannot have enough pitching. So any, any sort of pitching that, that you can get. I don't know if Justin Campbell is still an option there at 21,

but I like Harrington as well. You've talked about him quite a bit here on the last couple of episodes that we've done talking about the draft. And then, yeah, you know, that's pretty much it. I mean, catcher would be nice because that's another area that you don't have really any organizational depth at, aside from Harry Ford, who may or may not end up being a catcher. By the way, there is a catcher that would make sense as an underslaw first round guy.

his name's Dalton rushing yeah he's left-handed hitter from Louisville it's got some really good raw power and scouts seem to think he'll actually be able to hit for some decent average good arm kind of a fringe average catcher

because he's a catcher he has a shot to go higher than he probably should but I think you know I don't know if I would want them to spend a first round pick on rushing to get, for example, J.R. Richie in the second round. But that is the way they could go and it could make some sense. And I'm just using J.R. Richie because, you know, he's a local kid.

And he is probably a late first round talent. Yeah. I know a lot of people that like J.R. R. R. R. obviously, especially for the Mariners, because of the local connection and everything. So that's certainly a name to keep an eye on. You know, obviously you like Zach Netto. I know you're going to be pounding on the table for him. So, you know, a lot of options there.

A lot of options to fit what the Mariners are kind of lacking right now in the organization. Ultimately, it doesn't matter. They just need to get good players, like you said, no matter where they're, they position at. So if they end up getting a third baseman or, you know, some outfielders or whatever, you doesn't matter. As long as they're getting really good value at those picks. I personally right now, just kind of seeing how the. class is shaping up.

I just like for them to go best player available. No need to necessarily go in with the intention of going under slot in Realm 1. Plus, you know, this year, I don't know. I haven't seen as many picks or players looking as concrete as they do in years past. It seems like the board's just kind of all over the place for a lot of folks now, even with the draft being less than a month away. So, you know, maybe you just see how the board falls and then just, you know, react accordingly. Right.

I think this is going to be a draft that is going to surprise a lot of people. And traditionally, those surprises mean good things for teams like Seattle. I mean, one of the drafts that comes to mind is Jerry DePoto's first draft where he's somehow able to land Kyle Lewis at pick 11 when most. Most people assume Kyle Lewis was going in the top five. So this seems like one of those drafts where money's going to come into play a lot more than people think. Because it's not a great top-end draft, particularly in college pitching, which is the safest way to go. A lot of prep guys early. So I think you're going to see quite a few money savers and a lot of teams try and take advantage of the kind of the bulk of this draft.

There are a lot of really interesting talent. So I think this draft has the possibility. I wouldn't be shocked if like, I don't know if like Justin Crawford fell to the Mariners randomly and then they had to make a decision on that. I wouldn't be shocked.

Daniel Susack, I think somebody, I think enough teams are going to save money that a pretty good player, that there's a good chance that a top 10 value player somehow sitting there at 19, 20, 21. Yeah,

and that always kind of tends to happen every year, right? There's always a couple, of guys that were projected to go top five, top 10 that end up falling into the 15 range, 20 range, even, you know, second round territory. Somehow always to the Dodgers.

Yeah. It just, it happens. Yeah. It happens, right? The raise always take advantage of that. So it happens. And it's what makes the Major League Baseball draft a lot more fun in some cases than other drafts,

but also because they're so far away, a lot more, a lot more difficult to follow and a lot more difficult to really buy into getting super excited about. Yeah, the draft is never going to be. No. Yeah, the draft is never going to be for casual viewers. You know, it's something that, you know, because it's just like the thing with like the NFL draft right is like, all right, first round or first overall pick is usually going to be

a quarterback in most cases. That guy is going to help that team and potentially even change the face of that, that franchise in general. And then, uh, even with the NBA as well. going to be the left tackle for the Seahawks. You're going to see him week one. You're going to see you're going to see Chet Holgren

on opening night right away. Like it's, you're not going to see. Nobody gets drafted this year is going to make their debut before the end of the year, except for maybe Ben Joyce, who's a reliever. What do you do? Yeah. Yeah, that's the thing too is like it's only relievers that actually, you know, in

very rare cases. Or if you're Mike Leak, right? You know, that are going to make their debuts, like, right away and so um you know yeah like the speed at which some like Logan Gilbert was an incredibly fast riser to the big leagues yeah and he still took I mean the COVID year really doesn't count but he still took you know two three years to get to the big weeks as a as a college guy mm-hmm it takes a while man yeah It takes a really, really long time for a lot of guys.

Even guys that, you know, come out very advanced looking. It takes them a while. Yeah, yeah. By the way, good for Markapel last night. Got his first career major league strikeout. Good for him. He's back in the league, back with, and he's with Phillies now. Really cool story.

All right. So that's going to do it for our show. Thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Marries podcast for Colby Pat Note. I'm Tiding Gonzalez. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at LO underscore Mariners. You can follow Inside the Mariners at Inside Mariners. You can follow me at Dane-G-N-Z-L-Z and Colby at C-E-Pat-E-E-N-Z-L-E and Colby at C-PAT 11.

That's C-PAT-1-1. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. And thank you again for making us your first listen of the day, just like you do here every day. Now make your second listen of the day. Lockdown MLV prospects. Host Lindsay Crosby is a prospect encyclopedia, and he's going deep on the MLB stars of tomorrow. It's free and available wherever you get your podcast, just like us. And with that, have a beautiful baseball day, and we will see you tomorrow. Peace.