Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Castillo's Injury, Kirby's Struggles Put Mariners' Rotation in Problematic Spot + Top 3 MiLB Seasons

Episode Date: September 11, 2024

Ty goes solo to discuss Luis Castillo's potentially season-ending hamstring injury, George Kirby's continued struggles on the mound, how the wild-card and division races are shaping up, and picks the three best 2024 campaigns by Mariners minor-leaguers.Ask us questions!Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @TyDaneGonzalez | @CPat11Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!TonaITonal is the world's smartest and most effective strength training system that helps get you stronger. Right now, Tonal is offering our listeners $200 off your Tonal purchase with promo code LOCKEDONMLB. That’s Tonal.com, and use promo code LOCKEDONMLB for $200 off your purchase.   Liquid IVNo more thirsty summers when you indulge in hydration with Liquid I.V. Get 20% off your first order of Liquid I.V. when you go to LIQUIDIV.COM and use code MLB at checkout. SupplyHouseSupplyHouse.com is the reliable way to get parts fast. Shop for your next plumbing, h-vac, or electrical job and get fast shipping from coast to coast. PrizePicksGo to https://prizepicks.onelink.me/LME0/LOCKEDONMLB and use code lockedonmlb for a first deposit match up to $100! eBay MotorsFrom brakes to exhaust kits and beyond, eBay Motors has over 122 million parts to keep your ride-or-die alive. With all the parts you need at the prices you want, it’s easy to bring home that big win. Keep your ride-or-die alive at EbayMotors.com. Eligible items only. Exclusions apply. eBay Guaranteed Fit only available to US customers.GametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONMLB for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. FanDuelNow through September 22nd, ALL FanDuel customers can bet FIVE DOLLARS and get a THREE WEEK free trial of NFL Sunday Ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV. Visit FANDUEL.COM/LOCKEDON to get started. FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdra Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Things have become a bit problematic in the Marrers rotation. I'll discuss why and also give you my top three Mariners prospect seasons coming up here on the Locked on Marrars podcast. You are Locked on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. Ahoy, sailors. It is Wednesday, September 11th, 2024. This is titting is honest for the Locked on Marrars podcast.

Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. and I'm on my own today. Colby is out of town for the next couple days. He'll be back on Friday. I believe the plan for tomorrow's episodes that Ben Renieri will be joining me for that one. But here's what we're going to get into today. Luis Castillo has a grade two hamstring strain. I'll tell you what that means. The mayor has lost to the Padres last night and lost ground in the wildcard race, but not in the division race. It was another rough outing for George Kirby in that one. And we'll talk about him a little later on.

And now that Everett has wrapped up its season, Modesto has started the playoffs in Arkansas as about to as well. I thought it would be a good time to rank my top three prospects. Seasons, not prospects, but the seasons they had down in the Marys Farm system this year. Now, before we get into all that, shout out to our title sponsor today. Game Time. Download the GameTime app, create an account, and use a promo code locked on MLB for $20 off your first purchase. That's LOC, KED, O, N, MLB on the game.

time app. And if you want to hear from me and Colby even more and help support the show, check out our Patreon. The link is in the description. You can sign up for a free seven-day trial. So it was announced yesterday by the Mariners that they have placed Luis Castillo on the 15-day IL with a grade two hamstring strain. Now, there are more than 15 days left in the season. Not many more than that, but there are more than 15 days left in the season. and Marrars General Manager Justin Hollander in his meeting with the local media yesterday when this decision was announced. It did seem to leave the door open for the possibility that Castillo could return once those 15 days are up. But I would think that that would require the Marys to still be in serious contention for the postseason.

So I would say from the outside looking in, seems pretty likely that Castillo is done. for 2024. And this might be the last we have seen of Castillo in a mayor's uniform in general. Maybe that start in St. Louis, Louis Castillo in the Navy in Northwest Green. Because obviously there's been a lot of chatter about the mayor is potentially trading one of their starting pitchers this off season. A lot of the attention has been placed on, you know, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby,

Bryce Miller, Brian Wu in that regard. but I wouldn't be surprised if Castillo is actually the one that ends up getting dealt despite having that no trade clause for another year on his contract. Now that does lift once 2025 is over and that would obviously make trading Castillo a lot easier in theory for the Mariners. But I look around the league. I look at what's coming up here in free agency and I look at what Cassio is making. and I know there's some pushback here on, you know, is Cassio actually worth the money that he's making is, you know, he's not even the best pitcher in the mayor's rotation

and he's making the most money, yada, yada, yada, yada, yada. Cassio is still a great value at $24.1 million. 364 ERA this year, 392 FIP, 3A3XFIP, basically a strikeout per inning this year, 241 walks per nine. And, you know, you could say this until, Sunday he has been healthy. He has posted.

He has pitched in every possible game. The Mariners have asked him to pitch in since acquiring him around the trade deadline in 2022. So yeah, I mean, there's a lot of value in that. And that's still a great deal for Castillo. And I think the teams that would be interested in Castillo this offseason are, you know, the same teams that would not only, take on at least most of that contract, but also he would actually waive his no trade clause for. I'm talking teams like the Dodgers and the Phillies, et cetera. Now, I'm not Luis Castillo, of course, but you would think in theory, you know, if a team like the Phillies,

a team like the Dodgers, you know, someone that's going to definitively compete for a championship next year comes Colin that he would have interest in joining that team. and I also think those teams would have some pieces that would be interesting to the mayor's as well but you know we'll get into all those discussions this off season there will be plenty of time to talk about that but yeah it is possible maybe not likely but it is possible that we have sent the last of Luis Castillo in Seattle so the mayor's corresponding move

for the Castillo for Castillo being place on the injured list was bringing back Sebi Zavala. So now they have three catchers on the roster with Cal and Mitch Garber. I think this is just temporary. This is just for the few days here in between Castillo's last start and when his turn and the rotation comes up. Now it's possible they might skip his turn in the rotation, this upcoming turn in the rotation because they did have the day off on Monday.

They could absolutely do that. or they will just send, you know, Zavala down. Well, they'll have to DFA Savala. And, and bring up Emerson Hancock or Jonathan Diaz. Probably one of those two guys. I mean, the more fun outcome, and there's nothing really fun here because, you know, obviously Luis Castillo is hurt. But the more fun outcome here for me would be Brandon Garcia, Logan Evans,

but that's probably not going to happen. But yeah, I don't think Zavala is here for more than a week and probably the next three to four days, more likely. But yeah, things are pretty problematic in the mayor's rotation at the moment. And that goes beyond the Castillo injury. George Kirby was bad again last night against the Padres. And he's been bad for, I don't know, the last five or so weeks, give or take. And there's no real qualifier to put on that, right? He hasn't been bad for George Kirby's standards.

He hasn't been bad for the Mariners' rotation standards. It's just been bad. Full stop. And last night was no exception to that. Five earn runs and seven hits over five innings pitched. Two home runs allowed. Three runs shot to Fernando Tatis Jr. Two runs shot to Manny Machado.

Both of those pitches, middle, middle fastballs. One of them a sinker, the other force seam that was deposited over the centerfield wall by Machado, which I believe made him the all-time leader in home runs for Padre's franchise history. So, yeah, I mean, you look at what Kirby has done over, again, like the last, I don't know, yeah, I would say like four and a half weeks. he had that start at home against Detroit where he wasn't particularly great. I mean, he only gave up three runs, but it wasn't particularly great in that outing. He only went five innings in that one. Then the disastrous start, arguably the worst start of his entire career, where the Tigers rattled off 11 runs off of him, six of them earned.

You know, obviously Kirby not helped at all by his defense in that game, but still really, really poor outing for Kirby. that one just went three and two thirds uh give up two earn runs against pirates that one was fine six innings pitched uh then four and two thirds against the giants gave up three earn runs on nine hits in that one that's not what you want to see out of george kirby uh then the angels where you got the big lead and allowed the angels to get back into that game the merrers fortunately still won that game uh but he gave up five earn runs and that one to a bad lineup i just struck out to bounce back pretty well in Oakland

and gets a good A's lineup. But then this happens against the Padres. And this is not a typical for Kirby. We have seen these kinds of starts from him multiple times over the course of this whole season. It's not just isolated to the last few weeks. I mean, you know, to start the season, he had the eight run game against Cleveland.

And his second start, then the next time he went out against Toronto, he gave up five. And then from that point forward, he was pretty good until they got to the East Coast road trip where he faced Baltimore, gave up five in that one. And then give up five to the nationals. This is next time out. And from that point forward, he was like really, really freaking good for, I don't know, two consecutive months. and that's when we get to the most recent stretch that he has been on. And it's really just a product again, as we've talked about, this isn't breaking news.

Things haven't really changed with Kirby in his profile. This is a product of him not really having a consistent out pitch, a consistent put-away pitch. And when you are in the strike zone as consistent as Kirby is, and you don't have a consistent out pitch to rely on, upon. Some teams are going to hit you hard unless you can locate absolutely perfectly. For as good as Kirby has been, and he still might have the best command in all baseball of

any pitcher in baseball, it's unreasonable to expect him to have that every single night out. And when he doesn't have that, you see what happens, right? So it's going to be really interesting to see how he attacks. this off season. And if he comes back and has something that he's worked on that can get more swing and miss with more regularity. Because we have seen him get ambushed before in previous seasons. But maybe not as often as we've seen it this year because it's been about, let's see here.

one, two, three, four, five, six, let's call it seven starts out of the 30 he's made where he's getting just smoked, like outright smoked. And then there's a handful of other starts where, you know, he only goes five innings or four innings. Doesn't really strike out anyone. The pitch count gets high because guys are falling off a lot of pitches. he gets through it with only a couple of runs against him, but isn't able to get deep into games because, again, teams are cranking up that pitch count against him, fouling off all those pitches that are in the strike zone.

So really interesting to see how he attacks this off-season. And if we're going to see an actually visibly different George Curry and an approach from George Kirby in 2025. Because right now, there's too much variance for you to feel really all that confident going into each start of his right now. So again, Maris Lose 7 to 3 last night. I have a couple of other thoughts that I want to go over on that game.

And then we'll get into what the playoff picture is looking like after that loss in just a moment. First, a reminder, this episode of the Lockdown Marys podcast is brought to you by Game Time. So some of you may not know this, but I used to live in New Mexico. And down in New Mexico, there are zero pro sports teams. And a lot of the bands and artists that I listen to skip going there more often than not. So when I moved to Toronto where there's a baseball team, a basketball team, a hockey team, even a soccer team, and there's great music being played every night in the city. Yeah, I was right in my element.

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And you're listening to the Locked-on Marriss podcast. You can catch all the action between the Marrins and the Padres tonight on the Marrish hometown broadcast with Sirius XM via the SXM app. All you have to do to find that is search the word Mariners. Great pitching matchup in that one, by the way. Michael King gets Brian Wu, who of course, is by far my favorite pitcher in the Maris rotation right now to watch. So really looking forward to seeing him and seeing how he approaches the starting. If it's similar to how he approached his last timeout against the A's where he threw a little. little bit of everything. It wasn't a predominantly fastball outing like basically every other start of

his is gone at the professional level. So is that just kind of like an outlier start that one down in Oakland or is that actually something that, you know, he's starting to feel himself and he's starting to try and figure some other things out and figure out other ways to attack hitters. I'm really, really interested to see how that goes today, especially against a lineup as good as the Padres. So you look at what the the marries did last night. I have really just one more thought. I said a couple that I had a couple thoughts on last night's game.

But it's really just, it boils down to one thing that I really want to focus on here from last night. 7 to 3 loss of the Padres. And that's that seventh inning where the Mariners had bases loaded, one out. They already scored a run off of Tanner Scott. they had an opportunity to get back into this game. It's seven to three at the time. That ends up being the final score, of course. And they get the guy that, in theory,

you should want up in that situation, Leo Rodriguez, but, I mean, what can be said that hasn't already been said a million times about Julio in these situations and how they have gone more often than not for Julio in these situations, especially, this year. Jason Adam comes into the game and I think it was a two two count.

Maybe it was a full count that Julio gets. And Adam delivers a hanging changeup for Julio. That should be just absolutely destroyed. And instead, he finds some way, and I still can't even wrap my head around how this is even possible. He finds some way to hit that pitch into the dirt. for an inning double play. And that just about sums up,

I mean, Julio's season, the Spariner's offense's season, in one play. Right. And one singular moment, I think we saw what the story of just this ball club in general

has been in 2024. Julio ends up going 0 for 5 in this game. A couple of strikeouts. He did have a hard hit ball, but yeah. Not a great. day for Julio. It's unfortunate because the Marys did get out to a to a two nothing lead in this game.

They get a couple of solo shots from Cal Raleigh and Luke Rayley. But then Tatis hits the three run, home run, and that opened the floodgates for the Padres. But you look at the box score, 10 hits for the Mariners. They struck out fewer than nine times. Clearly, the offense is fixed if you're just, you know, going off of those numbers. but yeah, just the three runs and then, you know, in a couple of big situations, they also had runners at first and second

in the, what, in the eighth inning and Polanco can't get the job done in that situation. Yeah. Just struggling consistently to take advantage of good opportunities to score runs. Now, obviously, this is a really good Padres bullpen. Do want to give them some credit, but they weren't at the top of their games last night.

Tanner Scott wasn't at the top of his. his game last night. Jason Adam wasn't at the top of his game last night. Neither was Robert Suarez. But yeah, the Mariners just couldn't take advantage of it. And yeah, that's how you end up in the place that you've been at pretty much all year as an offense and as a ball club. So the Mariners didn't get any help around the league as far as the wild card is concerned. The A's did beat the Astros last night. So the mares are still four and a half back of the Astros and the division.

But now they're four games back of the twins, which is essentially five games back because they don't have the because they've lost the tiebreaker to Minnesota. They are also now in a tie with the Red Sox, but of course they don't have the tiebreaker on the Red Sox and they don't have the tiebreaker on the Tigers either. They are now a game behind. So they have two teams that they have to leapfrog just to, get behind the wild card three, which is the twins who continue to struggle. And look, you look at the schedules for all these teams.

Twins have four against the guardians. They have three against the Orioles to wrap up the year. The Tigers, I believe, have six against the Orioles remaining and three against the Royals. The Red Sox have three against the Orioles. and I believe three or four against the Yankees, and I believe three against the twins as well. So the Red Sox on the twins, at the very least,

they're going to be kind of beating up on one another. But, you know, you also have another game against the Padres tonight. You have the Yankees. You have the Astros. The A's have been one of the hottest teams of baseball in the second half. And, you know, as we just saw down in Oakland a few days ago,

like that's not a team that's just going to let you walk all over them. So it's going to be tough sledding for the marries. And again, as I've been saying for the last couple of weeks, it is highly unlikely that they're going to be able to get this done. It is still mathematically possible. And again, considering how tough the schedules of the teams they're chasing are, certainly can happen.

Right. But you got to take care of business. And this team has just been so wildly inconsistent that I just don't think, I think I'll put it like this I think the twins the tigers the red sox the astros will give them the opportunities

to get back in this thing I just don't think they're capable of getting out of their own way I just don't think they're good enough to do that right now they certainly are not consistent enough for me to think otherwise and I still think it's all the more likely

that if they are going to make the playoff it's going to be by winning the division. It's not going to be by sneaking into the wild card. Because at the very least, you still have that three-game series against the Astros that's lingering here in the next couple of weeks. So I want to switch things up and talk about some prospects. Because the Bire Leagues are starting to wrap up around the circuit. Everett is done in high A.

Their season is over. Medesso began their playoffs with a win. last night. Good to see. Congrats to the nuts on that. We'll see if they're able to to put a bow on the division series here in the coming days and Arkansas is going to be starting the playoffs here in about a week, I believe. So I want to highlight the top three seasons by Mariners prospects this year. Not the top three prospects. These guys are not the top three prospects in our rankings, but the top three seasons that these guys have had. And I also have some thoughts on another prospect that's not going to make my list,

but I feel is worth talking about here in just a moment. But first, a reminder, this episode of the Lockdown Marys podcast is brought to you by prize picks. Prize picks is the easiest, the most exciting way to play daily fantasy sports. Unlike other apps on prize picks, it's just you against the numbers. All you do is pick more or less on two to six player stat projections and watch the winnings roll in. You can now win up to 100 times your money on price picks with as little as four correct picks. You can turn $10 into $1,000.

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on the Marriss hometown broadcast with Sirius XMV, the SXM app. All you have to do to find that is search the word Mariners. So once again, my early baseball started to wrap up across the circuit. Everett once again is done for the year. Modesto started the playoffs last night. Arkansas getting close to starting the playoffs. Rainier's are still going, but we are getting close to the finish line

on all levels of minor league baseball for 2024. And I wanted to use this as an opportunity to highlight three of the best seasons, Mara's prospects have had down on the farm. Not the three best prospects in general, but three best seasons. I want to make that very clear. I want to make that distinction very clear here.

So what factors into this is how much did they elevate their profile, right? How impressive was their season overall? And I think someone that exemplifies that to a T is Brandon Garcia, who wasn't on my radar heading into the season, wasn't on Colby's radar heading into the season. Someone who was drafted around after Brandon Garcia and also kind of came out of nowhere,

kind of took the spotlight to start the year. Logan Evans, but Garcia has really been the one that has made a name for himself with his year this year. He only threw 10 combined innings last year between the Complex League and Loe Modesto after getting drafted, starts the year in high A this year,

dominates, gets called up to AA and adapts really well. Now the walks have kind of gotten out of hand down on AA this year, but Overall, 242 ERA, 359 FIP, 392, X-FIP, and 44 and two-thirds innings pitch over the course of 12 starts for Garcia in AA. His numbers on the year in total, 207 ERA, 133 strikeouts. If I'm not mistaken, that leads all Mariners minor league pitchers this year. It's also a 315 FIP between High A and AA, 10-59-Ks per 9.

366 walks per nine. Just an excellent year for Brandon Garcia, who again, the mayor just kind of took a shot on in a long round last year out of Texas A&M. And he is developed into a real, legit prospect who

has a decent chance of factoring into the Mariners rotation depth as soon as the start of next year. Coming in at number two, someone that a lot of Maris fans love, of course, Lazaro Montes. I mean, insane year for Lazz,

right? Answered more questions about his hit tool, hit for a high average in low A this year, just dominated that level in 309 pled appearances.

309, 411, 527. That's a 148 WRC plus. Just struck out 19.1% of the time significantly lowered his strikeout rate from the year before in low A.

13.9% walk rate, 13 home runs, 72 ribs over that time. The strikeout rate did go significantly up when he got to High A. Everett, but he still walked 15% of the time. Got off to obviously a very slow start in Everett, but over the last few weeks, just straight up dominated. I think we've all seen what he did when the Aqua Sox were down in Eugene about a week or so ago.

He ends up slashing 263.78, 427. That's a 125 WRC plus. eight home runs 33 rbi i again 29.6k rate 15% walk rate as an aquasoc wraps up the year as a whole with a 288 average 397 on base percentage for a4 slug it's a 138 wrc plus uh for him across low a and high a and doing that all at the age of 19 years old 21 home runs 21 doubles couple triples really good year for uh Las Montes. He also cleared the century mark in RBI

this year. And then coming in at number one is another 19 year old Mariners prospect. And again, this is someone that exemplifies elevating their profile, doing something really impressive to a T. Michael O'Royle had himself a hell of a year this year in the minors and answered the biggest question about him. I think, which is can he actually produce consistent power output? Because that's going to have an impact on his offensive profile, obviously.

But it's also going to have an impact on where does he play? Because that was a huge question mark is where does Michael O'Royle fit on the diamond? So now I think he's shown that he can hit for enough power where you can at least get away with it at third base. But if you want to put them at second base or even at shortstop, like you're going to get probably above average power for those positions. so he did this like las montes at 19 years old as well he dominated low a 279 404 500 that's 141 w rc plus 20.2% strikeout rate 12.9% walk rate 11 homers 49 ribs 8 stolen bases and then he goes high a and he hits even better which is wild he ended up playing 100 120 games overall on the year.

And it's a perfect split between low A and high A. 60 games in low A, 60 games in high A. In high A, 293, 97, 519. That's 155 WRC plus, 25.9% K rate, 11.7% walk rate. So yeah, the strikeouts to go up. That's a little bit of a concern, but not too egregious. 12 home runs, 40 RBI, 10 steals. 23 home runs total between the two levels of the miners for Michael,

Royal. That is a huge development for him, considering he had three in 2020, over 61 games. So about half of what he played this year. So do the math, that's a 120-ish game pace of about six home runs, right? So yeah, Arroyal, again, answered quite a few questions this year. He wraps up the year. in total slashing 285 400 509 so 148 WRC plus between the two levels 23% K rate 12.3% walk rate. Lastly, I want to talk about Colt Emerson. He doesn't make the list. Those were my top three, Brandon Garcia, Las Montes, and Michael O'Royle. Royal being number one, Montes being number two, Garcia being number three if I didn't make that clear.

But I want to talk about Cole Emerson who had a. really interesting first full year of pro ball also at the age of 19 years old or really at the age of 18 years old he turned 19 on on July 20th uh this was a lot of a stop and start for emerson this year he got hurt a couple times uh ends up slashing 293 440 427 that's a 142 w rc plus down in low a struck out just 14% of the time ended up walking more than he struck out 18.1% walk rate a couple of homer 25 RBI, 6 steals for Emerson. And he went to high A and wasn't great in the 29 games that he played.

Not concerned about that whatsoever. But he ends up slashing just 225, 331, 317. That's a 90 WRC plus, 21.6% K rate, 10.8% walk rate during that time. Had a couple of homers, 12 ribs, 9 stolen bases, actually, over that 29 game stretch. I would think, and this is the reason that I wanted to talk about Cole Emerson real quick, I would think he's someone that we're probably going to see in the Arizona Fall League. Played 40 games in low A, 29 games at high. You would think that the Marys would want to get him more game action before the calendar year is over, right?

So I think he's a prime candidate to play in Arizona this fall. All right. So that's going to do it for me. Hey, if you've watched the Maras Miners this year, you've kept up with the Marys Miners at least. Let me know down below in the comments. Who had the three best seasons of any Mariners prospect this year? Before I get out of here, a reminder that Lockdown has launched the first ever national sports 24-7 streaming channel on YouTube. Now it's also available on Amazon Fire TV and the free Fire TV channels app.

Lockdown Sports Today is here for you 24-7 covering the top sports stories of the day with the local experts of Locked-on, plus our national shows covering every league. Find Lockdown Sports Today now available on the free Fire. our TV channels app. Thank you so much for joining me here on the Lockdown Mariners podcast. I've been your host, Tiding Gazzal. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at LO underscore Marrners. You can follow me at Tiding Azales and my co-host Colby at C-PAT-11.

You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. Now head on over to Locked-on C-Ox to get all the latest on the Hawks with Corbyn Smith and the gang and tell them Ty and Colby St. You have yourself a beautiful baseball day. We'll see you next time. Peace.