Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Corner Infield: The Biggest Question Mark on the Mariners Roster

Episode Date: March 6, 2024

Our position preview series rolls on as Ty and Colby look at two of the biggest talking points for the Mariners this offseason and spring: first base and third base.Ask us questions!Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @TyDaneGonzalez | @CPat11Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Factor MealsHead to FactorMeals.com/lockedonmlb50 and use code lockedonmlb50 to get 50% off.Amazon Fire TVFire TV recently created Fire TV Channels to deliver a constant supply of the latest videos from your favorite sports brands, all for free. That includes all of us at Locked On and most of the big pro leagues and college conferences as well. To Learn More, visit www.amazon.com/LockedOnFireTV   PrizePicksGo to PrizePicks.com/lockedonmlb and use code lockedonmlb for a first deposit match up to $100! eBay MotorsWith all the parts you need at the prices you want, it’s easy to turn your car into the MVP and bring home that win. Keep your ride-or-die alive at EbayMotors.com. Eligible items only. Exclusions apply. eBay Guaranteed Fit only available to US customers.GametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDON for $20 off your first purchase. FanDuelNew customers, join today and you’ll get ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS in BONUS BETS if your first bet of FIVE DOLLARS or more wins. Visit FanDuel.com/LOCKEDON to get started. FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The biggest question marks on the Marra's roster reside in the corners. Today we'll look at the corner infield situation. That's Thai France, Luis Urias, Josh Rojas, and others coming up here on the Locked on Marrars podcast. Colby, hit it. You are Locked on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day.

Oh, hoie, sailors. It is Wednesday, March 6, 2024. This is Tiding Azales and Colby Patnaud for the Lockdowne podcast brought to you by PrizePix. It's the easiest and most exciting way to play daily fantasy sports. Go to prizedpix.com slash locked on MLB

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with a look at the Mariners Corner infield situation. Some big talking points at both first base and third base this spring. But we'll start with Thai France, who's really going to need a big year in order to stay in Seattle beyond 2024 Colby. So do you think the work France has put in this off season? He's added some bat speed over at driveline. He is noticeably slimmer.

Do you think he can do just that, have that big year and be able to remain with the Mariners beyond this season? Maybe, but I don't think it's going to have a ton to do with just drive line and being a little slimmer. I think this is more about, you know, can tie France get back to what he was? I mean, it was just, you know, a year ago. He was a 120 WRC plus guy and he was an All-Star.

And yeah, he really struggled in the second half. But I think, you know, a lot of that can be explained by wrist injuries, elbow injuries, all that. But yeah, I think he can do it. He certainly would help the Mariners quite a bit if he could. He's an incredibly important player on this team because there's some questions about what kind of, you know, what kind of production you're going to get from the corners, both in the infield and the outfield in France is the best blend of guy who's likely to stay healthy and guy who's likely to produce at a regular level. So France is definitely one of those,

you know, he's one of those seesaw players where he goes up or down, it's going to drastically improve or hurt the Mariners' chances. And, you know, I think we look back at last year and he was, he was very mediocre. He was a 102, 103 WRC plus, something like that, which like, it's not awful, but for a first base who is slow and doesn't really play great defense or anything like that, that's not going to cut it. And if Thai France was just what he was the year before, the Mariners probably win the division.

Like, that's how big of a swing a healthy Thai France makes, particularly with the struggles of the rest of the lineup last year. This year, the lineup's a little bit deeper. They're not going to need as much from France as they did last year. but if he can get back to what he was, then yeah, he can certainly be a pretty impactful player for Seattle. You know,

as to whether or not he's going to stick around beyond next year. I don't know that that last number, Arb number is probably going to get around $10 million bucks. And we know that this team, unfortunately, probably going to have to deal with some more payroll BS. I guess a good question then might be, what do you think he has to do in order for them to go,

well, we can't just nontenner, remember we can't trade him like we have to keep tie france at the number yeah um i think tyler lockler plays into this a little bit but sure i i think that if france goes and he puts up you know 120 125 w rc plus somewhere in that range which for him i think is 280 350 you know 450 something like that lots of doubles 20 home runs i think if he does that he just gets back to what he was a few years ago then i i think you're fine paying him $10 million.

I don't know if you're in a good spot extending him beyond next year. But I think you've comfortable paying him $10 million, especially since that's about, it's only about $3.5 million over this last year. And you can create $3.5 million of, you know, salary relief pretty quickly just by non-tendering somebody like, say, you know, Luis Urias or Josh Rojas maybe. So, yeah, I think if he's, if he is what he was last year, it's the easiest non-tender. you're ever going to see. Like, there's no chance that they would bring him back at that amount of money.

If he's back to all-star-ish-level Thai France, like close to all-star level France, then I think it's a pretty easy decision just to tender him, unless you're adding a proven big leader at first base at some point this year for significantly less. Maybe they think Luke Grayley's that guy. But, you know, I think they're going to have a really hard time justifying not paying Thai France 9, 10 million bucks if he's a 120 WRC plus first. basement. So you mentioned Tyler Locklear, you mentioned Luke Rayleigh, we need to talk at least a little bit about what's behind France at first base. And that's not even just in case he's not able to

take that step forward. Odds are Thai France is going to get hurt at some point this year. And that's not to be mean. It's just he crowds the plate. He gets hit by a lot of pitches. He is more likely than most players to get hurt in some form of fashion, specifically, you know, in terms of like an arm injury, a wrist injury, something like that. So talk a little bit about Locklear, Rayleigh. How do you feel about what the Mariners have behind France right now at first base? Yeah, it's pretty interesting. Rayleigh certainly seems to be their primary plan if, you know,

spring training lineups mean anything, which they don't. But yeah, Rayleigh's played a lot of first. I think that's just about being ready, being prepared. and also about kind of easing tie France into, you know, a heavier workload. So Raleigh is probably the guy they go to first. Locklear, he has to perform pretty big. Like if he's just kind of a fringy bat down in the miners, they're not going to call him up. They're going to go to Luke Raleigh and then in the outfield, they'll go to Samad Taylor.

They'll go to, you know, Sam Haggerty. They'll go to Dillan Moore and all that. So Rale is definitely the first guy up here if France, you know, gets hurt or anything like that. Locklear might not even be the second guy up. Now, if he's hitting, fine. Then they'll probably give him a shot. But if he's not, then they're not going to try and force that. They'll roll with Dylan Moore at first base.

If they have to, they'll roll with Mitch Garver at first base. So the idea that Locklear is some kind of lock to make his major league debut this year, I'm not so sure because he has to perform. And Thai France either has to get hurt or be really bad for two, three months. And even if France is really bad, I feel like we know that the Mariners solution to that is just going to be more Dom-Kan zone in the outfield, more Mitch Hanigar in the outfield and moving Luke Rayleigh to first base where he's totally capable of playing that position well. So Rayleigh is easily the backup first baseman, which isn't really a thing. But he'll get the first shot if Ty does end up on the IL at some point this year. At the very least they have options and they're at least a little ways away from having to think about Dillan Moore.

playing first base a lot or Sam Haggerty playing first space, which of course he's done a little bit this spring. Didn't we see Haggerty play at first base in Tampa last year as well? Yeah, he started at first base yesterday too. So yeah, or maybe it's Sunday. But yeah, the mayor has made it pretty clear. Like they're willing to throw anybody at first base for a game if they need to. So I wouldn't roll out Dom Kahn's own if they absolutely need.

I wouldn't rule out Josh Rojas if you absolutely need it. I mean, it's not an easy position, but relative to every other position on the field. It's the easiest. So the Mariners are more than willing to take a shot on first base if they need to. But that would only be for like a day or two. Right. Well, speaking of Josh Rojas, that third base spot on the Mariners roster has been arguably the biggest talking point all offseason and especially this spring. So we're going to get into that in just a moment.

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tomorrow we are scheduled to talk to Mariners president of baseball operations jerry to potos get excited for that we're looking forward to talking to jerry once again it's been a while so let's talk about this mariners third base situation it's got to start with louis serius and josh rojas uh rojas came over in that trade for paul seawald back in july and the mayor has made a tweak to his swing and he started to hit a lot better and he's starting to pull the ball a lot more and and starting to lift the ball a lot more to his pole side. So I'm really intrigued by Rojas. And then Urias is

just a year removed from having back to back two-win seasons, but he's come into camp with a shoulder injury, struggled in the Mexican league. But there's also been reports that he has shown up into camp and not the best of shape. So obviously a lot of question

marks there in general about performance, about injury, etc. So where are you at with third base spot? And you and I, have both been pretty high on that situation, you even more so than I have. Do you still feel the same way now that we know what we know about Arias? I'm going to circle back to that.

I want to talk about Josh Rojas because it gives me the opportunity to relitigate the deadline last year. Once again, the problem. Right before we get Jerry on the show too. Yeah. Yeah. So yeah, third base, obviously it's kind of the one. position that Mariner fans have really like glombed on to as this glaring weakness on the team. And maybe it is, but I think you have to look at the big picture of the team before you

decided this weakness is detrimental. It's going to be such a huge obstacle to overcome. But before that, just look at the players, Josh Rojas, each of the last two years before last year, where he suffered a hamstring injury and he missed a decent chunk of the season. Rojas was also a two-win player and an above-average bat. Urias did the same. So these are two guys who both in the past have been legitimate everyday players, legitimate above-average hitters,

who can play some third, who could play some second and could play some short if you need to. They're both legitimate major leaguers who last year suffered some pretty serious injuries. Now, Rojas was able to bounce back from his, Urius not so much. So I'm still relatively bullish on the Marius. Mariners third base situation, but that's just mostly because I think it can be not a negative. Like I have a hard time imagining that the Mariners third base situation is going to be the Mariners second base situation last year.

I feel like Rojas and Eureas, if they're both healthy, I feel like they're both at least 100 WRC plus guys. I think they'll be fine there defensively. I think you're going to see a lot of doubles out of that position. I don't know how many home runs you'll see, but I do like what I saw from Rojas when you came over last year. It really does feel like they made a tweak or there's some kind of small change. that was made because he did start to lift the ball and drive it with authority.

He said as much. Yeah. Right. So, you know, it's not for me to tell you what it is. I don't notice those things. I just notice the results. And the results are that Rojas looks like a guy who could legitimately hit for 20 home runs. Like he looks like he has that kind of power.

And we know that he can also, you know, spray the ball around. We know that he can run a little bit. He can play some defense. Josh Ross is a good player. I don't know why there's this sudden belief that Rojas can't help you or he shouldn't be on a good team or anything like that. Like, no, that dude's a good player. He is a good, solid major league player.

And I think Urius falls into that same camp. Now, Urius has the shoulder thing, although he did play third base the other day. So that's a good sign. He reportedly came out of shape, but again, don't really know what plays into that. He apparently also had some issues dealing with the injury last year psychologically. It was a rough year for him overall. And so how much of that is going to linger? Don't know, but I would say this, that if I'm betting on somebody to bounce back,

I would rather bet on the 26-year-old guy to bounce back than the 32-year-old guy to bounce back. So Ureis, I feel relatively comfortable with. And even if Urius is a failure of an acquisition, I still feel pretty good about what Rojas brings. Like I think Josh Rojas is a really underrated player that people are quickly setting aside as just kind of depth and all that. And it's like, why? This dude was a two and a half one player, not that long ago. He's a 110 WRC plus hitter, not that long ago. And the Mariners have apparently found a way for him to get to more power than he ever had in Arizona.

Like, there's a chance here that the Mariners get three wins out of this position. And if they do that, they're in really good shape so long as everyone else performs about to the level that we expect. So if Eureas doesn't pan out or he's unable to start the season on the roster, what do the Mariners do? over at third base. This is where Brian Anderson comes into play, and it's a little bit of an interesting conversation because Anderson, if he makes the opening date roster, is a $2 million guaranteed player.

Now, $2 million in the grand scheme of things, not a ton, but based on what we know about the Mariners' payroll situation, that could be a pretty significant chunk of what they have left to spend. And if the thought is that Anderson's only going to be needed for a couple of weeks as Urias gets close to the finish line, on his rehab or whatever, then do you really want to pay the $2 million for a guy that you're going to DFA in

in two weeks? No, you probably don't. So I have a hard time imagining that Anderson's going to make this ball club as things sit right now. Injuries could change things, of course. So I don't think that's that. And having seen that Ureus has already played third base and we still have another three weeks before opening day,

I would kind of lean that Urius is probably going to make the opening day roster at this stage. And he's probably going to be healthy enough to play. So again, we'll see. We'll track that. But unless you think Urias or maybe Rojas later this spring, unless you think they're going to miss six to eight weeks, I don't know. You can justify giving Brian Anderson $2 million to be the backup third baseman.

When you have Dylan Moore, when you have, you know, Sam Haggurty, like when you have some guys who could conceivably play third base, I just don't think that. Anderson at $2 million is going to be in play here, which is a bummer because we shouldn't care. Like it just be like, yeah, just do Anderson. You pay him to $2 million, blah, blah, blah, and you just roll with it. But unfortunately, we're in a position where we have to care about $2 million. So I don't think Anderson's really in play here unless there is a setback for Eureas or unless there is an injury somewhere else on this ball club. But I think if Eurias does need a couple weeks down in the minors, I think you're just rolling with

I would imagine you're just rolling with Dillamore and Rojas at third base. And then the backup or the bench spot that you would use to replace Erez would be Marlowe, Tramel, Taylor, Haggerty, somebody like that. Yeah. So like I said on our mailbag episode earlier this week, if it comes down to some form of a platoon between Dillamore and Josh Rojas, that's fine. because we at least know that Dillamore can hit lefties very well. He can play solid defense over at their base. And he's still not going to play a ton over there because you're going to run into more righties than lefties.

So Rojas is going to play most of the time and you're going to still be able to maintain Moore's defensive versatility most nights. So wouldn't be too concerned, especially if Eureas is at least on track to return at some point and assuming that the mariner's are of course on board with that again like i said on monday he hasn't banked any good will here so if he has shown up into camp you know out of shape and they don't think that he's living up to the standard that they want to set you know they

don't have to roster him right he's like he's obviously owed five million dollars which is a lot to them but he does have a minor league option they don't have to force him onto the major league roster if they don't want him on there so if it really does come down to to more in rojas i think that's fine. And I think that's still a two, two and a half, maybe even three win player, because again, you are tapping into the strengths of both of those players, which is Rojas against righties and

more against lefties. And I know there's some concerns about the defense, but I think overall they'll be fine there. I'm honestly, I'm more concerned about Jorge Polanco's defense over at second, which has been kind of an adventure already this spring. And he's really

struggled in terms of the outs above average over the last couple years than I am about third base. So I think third base, like they might be below average, but I don't think it's going to be anything that really necessarily kills you over there. Could be wrong, but that's just where I'm at right now on third base. So we're going to talk about what's behind those guys over at third base a little bit more and just, you know, if disaster strikes, right, what do you do in just a moment? But first, a reminder, this episode of the Locked-on Airs podcast is brought to you by eBay Motors.

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eBay guaranteed fit only available to U.S. customers. And you're listening to the Lockdown Airs podcast. Thank you again for making us your first listen as we preview the Mariners Corner Infueled situation. We've talked about Thai France quite a bit. We talked a lot about the third base situation, which has been a big talking point. This off season in the spring, of course, with Luis Arias, Josh Rojas. So, Colby, if disaster strikes, if the Mariners are completely wrong about Arias and Rojas, both of those guys are just trash this year, basically. Where do the Mariners go?

What do the mayors do about that? I think they go to Jorge Polanco, and they shift the, uh, shift the, the hole in their, they basically move the target, right? So if both Eureas and Rojas are bad, right? Obviously, Dillmore's not an everyday player. We've established that.

So if they're both bad to the point where you just can't play them, I mean, A, that's highly unlikely. But if that does come to pass, then I think the solution is you move Palanco to third base, and you go and you get Ryan Bliss to play second base, you go and you get Samoa Taylor to play second base, and you kind of roll with that until you can,

find something. And even in that sense, Dylan Moore is going to play a lot. I don't think the Mariners have a legitimate third base option down in the minors right now. But I do think they have a couple of legitimate second base options. And their second baseman can certainly play third. So I think that's the direction they go. I don't think this is about, you know, are they going to call up Tyler Locklear and play him at third base? No. Are they going to move Thai France to, are they going to move Typhrance to third base and call up Tyler Locklear to play first? No. They should not. They should put Colby at third base before they put Ty France over there.

Yes, accurate. But yeah, I think the solution here is like if disaster strikes and both those guys are bad, the everyday option at third base on June 1, because I think you got to get these guys at least a couple months to prove that they're just not going to turn it around. I think the everyday option at third base then becomes Polanco and then you're looking at a second baseman, which, while you don't have a ton of depth there, you do have, you know, Ryan Bliss, who can play second and looks like he's close to, you know, getting challenged at the majors. You do have some odd Taylor who does have some major league seasoning and can play second base a little bit.

You also have Cole Young, who is turning heads in spring training, who is he likely to be ready by June? No, I doubt it. But could he be in theory? Yes, he probably could. So I think you have disaster strikes. And, you know, this is assuming Brian Anderson's not willing to stay in Tacoma for a little while. You know, this is assuming that they can't go and sign a veteran and stick him on the Tacoma roster like they did last year with like Sesar Hernandez or Dede Grigorous or anybody like that. Like, even if they did do that, I still think their best shot is to move Polanco to third base and then just roll with a young guy at second base in a combination with Dylan Moore and Sam Haggurty.

So if your second base situation for a month in time, you can get to the deadline and make a move has to be Dylan Moore and Sam Haggertie. Like, it's not ideal, but you can probably survive. And again, that's only if both Eureas and Rojas are Colton Wong last year. Just it's not likely to be to happen. So cut to two months from now where they're both Colton Wong and everyone replays this clip and it goes around Twitter. Sure, whatever. But that's why I'm going to back it up by saying this.

And then Ryan Bliss comes up and wins rookie of the year. So there you go. There we go. The Mariners are in a pretty good shape to absorb a loss in their infield in the short term. Like very few teams are set up well to absorb a loss for months at a time. But for a couple weeks here and there, the Mariners are in pretty good shape, even though they don't have that like top prospect at third base who's ready to go. They're still pretty good. They're still covered pretty well at their base if disaster does strike.

All right. So we've addressed all the variables. But to you, when, you know, trying to look ahead to October, November, when we're reflecting back on this season, where do you think things will wind up at both third base and first base for the mirrors? I think they'll probably be slightly above average at first base and probably slightly below average at third. Now, I don't know what average is for those positions in terms of like WRC plus. war and all that. But I think France, you know, 110 to 115, I don't think that's shooting the moon on Thai France. And I think that puts them right about the range of average, maybe slightly above from what first baseman did last year. And then at third base, you know,

assuming you get to play matchup with both of them, assuming both of them are healthy all year, I think you get to 100 WRC plus pretty easy, maybe even 110. Like there's upside at third base. There certainly is. And there's upside at first base. So ideally,

you'd like more floor at one of those spots. You don't want to have upside plays at both spots, but it's not like your upside play is hoping that the player does something they've never done before. Right. Like if Ty Franch just does what he did in 21 and 22, you're above average at third base. And if Rojas and Euras both do what they did in 21 and 22, you're above average at third base.

Right. And we know that they're going to make up for it by being well above average in the pitching department at catcher and at center field. So they just need to be playable. They just need to be good. Like if, if Thai France is a one, like if Thai France is a 100 WRC plus hitter again,

okay, third base kind of has to be 110, 115 to pick up the slack. But if Thai France is, you know, 115 WRC plus guy, the third baseman, really, they only have to be 90, give or take to not be an absolute disaster out there. So,

um, I, I do think France is more important. He's a bigger variable than the third baseman just in terms of how it changes this offense. Because as much as we like Rojas and Urias, there's really no question about it. They're hitting 7, 8, or 9 pretty much every night. Whereas if France is back to what he was, France could hit 2, 3, 4, 5. Like, he can hit in the top of the order.

So, yeah, I feel like I feel like I feel okay about these two spots, but there's obviously some risk. But there's also some reward. And I do think that the risk is, it's not that you have two black holes in your lineup. I feel like it's just that you just have two kind of like, eh, meh situations where you might be looking to upgrade one or both at the deadline. So we're going to talk to Jerry tomorrow.

We're not expecting to have him for nearly as long as we did last year when we did this. So time's going to be limited or amount of questions that we can ask is going to be limited. but yeah, should be fun. And then just to let you guys know what we're doing tomorrow, or the rest of the week, rather, on Friday, we're going to be reacting to the Jerry interview, kind of giving you our takeaways from that interview. And then we'll get back into our position preview series next week.

We'll look at the middle infield, corner outfield, I believe, and then I think we're just doing a Julio episode, maybe. We'll see. We should point out that that episode's probably going to come out a little earlier. than most of our episodes. Yeah, we are recording with them at 10 o'clock Pacific. So once I'm done with that, or once we're done with that,

I'll download it, edit it, and get that out as soon as possible. So hopefully maybe noon-ish, your time. We'll see. Yeah. That is going to do it for our show. Thank you so much for joining us here on the lockdown Marrace podcast. For Kobe Patnode, I'm Tideon Gonzalez.

Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Mariner. you can follow me at Ty Dan Gonzalez and Colby at C-Pad 11 that's C-P-A-T-1-1 you can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. Thank you again for making us your first listen. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day and we'll see you next time. Peace.