Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Could the Seattle Mariners CALL UP Michael Arroyo or Lazaro Montes Before the End of the Season?!

Episode Date: July 7, 2026

Ty and Colby discuss Michael Arroyo and Lazaro Montes' promotions to Triple-A Tacoma and if a trip to Seattle in 2026 is in the cards for either player as well. Afterwards, they open up the mailbag and answer some of your Mariners questions. Click to learn more about the Everydayer Club! Join the Ahoy, Sailors Discord server! Check out our Patreon! Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @TyDaneGonzalez | @CPat11 Follow the show on Bluesky: @lockedonmariners | @tdg | @mlbcolby Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors! Amazon This Back To School Season, spend less on your kids, with Amazon. With Amazon’s low Back To School Prices, just spend less on your kids. Because every dollar you don’t spend on them, is a dollar you haven’t spent on them.    KALSHI For a limited time, download the Kalshi app and use code LOCKEDON to get ten dollars when you trade ten. Kalshi. Trade on anything. Gametime Today's episode is brought to you by Gametime. Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDON for $20 off your first purchase. Terms and conditions apply. FanDuel Today's episode is brought to you by FanDuel. From the opening whistle to the final kick, Let There Be Goals on FanDuel. Visit https://FANDUEL.COM to get started now.   FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Michael Oroyo and Lazaro Montes have been promoted to AAA Tacoma. Can we see at least one of them at the major league level before the end of the season? We'll answer that and more coming up. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Ahoy, Sailors, and it is Tuesday, July 7, 2026.

My name is Saturday, Gazzalas, and I'm joined as always by my co-cove Colby Patnode. This episode is brought to you by Odu. great organizations win because operations matter and that's why you should get odoo try for free today at odoo.com slash locked on that's odio dot com slash l-c ked o n and on today's show we'll be opening up the mailbag to answer some of your mayor's questions but before we do got some news to talk about that dropped shortly after we recorded on sunday night the mariners are promoting both lazaro montes and michael o'royo to triple a tacoma and that now leaves me with one question about each player that I'm looking forward to seeing answered over the coming weeks. For Arroyo, who the Seattle Times reported there are some in the Mariners organization who view him as their 2027 left fielder. If he hits the ground running in Tacoma is a September call up this year, a real possibility for him. And then with Montas, we all know about the extraordinary power he possesses, but there's obviously some major red flags with that swing. Will those red flags become even more prominent?

or will he stay roughly the same? Because they're not going to go away, obviously, but can he at least avoid a significant uptick and strikeouts while maintaining the walks? Yeah, obviously, it remains to be seen. But Montes was running a 69% in-contact or in-zone contact rate, which... Nice, but not nice. No, I mean, major league, the, like, what's the opposite of leaders? Like the lowest end zone contact rate in the majors is what 75%?

It's Garrett Mitchell's 76.2% as of last night when we were doing our Patreon show. Yeah. Yeah. So I mean like not even close. Like you cannot swing and miss at that many pitches in the strikes zone and be a good hitter. Now there are plenty of good hitters on that list to are towards the bottom of the of that end zone contact. But again, we're talking outlier awful. And that's a double A and that's repeating the level, right?

This isn't a, you know, a 19-year-old playing in AA for the first time. This is, you know, again, Laz is young. Don't get me wrong. He doesn't have to happen for him this year or next year. He has time. But I think that's the big question with Las is, you know, look, man, you're going to strike out. Fine. There are guys who strike out and hit home runs and walk and they have good major league careers,

and they make all-star teams. But you can't be a successful big leagueer if you're going to swing and miss at strikes 40% of the time, 30% of the time. That's just not going to work. You have to put the ball and play more. often. So Laz has a lot of questions to answer. And, you know, it'll be a good challenge for him. The environment certainly is more conducive to him hitting home runs than it is in AA, but these are pitchers who know how to pitch. They know how to game plan. They attack and they're trying to

get back to the big leagues or they've been in the big leagues before. And like it'll be an interesting kind of chess match for Laz and what he does in AAA. Arroyo kind of the polar opposite. He swings a lot. He's very aggressive. But when he gets a pitch in the zone, I think his end zone contact, right, was like 90% pretty close to it in double a light. You throw the guy a strike and he swings that. He's putting it in play. And he certainly has the ex of Velos and all of that to perform very, very well. Not going to hit as many home runs as Laz, not going to be as exciting as Las.

But I think he's much more set it. I think he's much better set up to succeed in AAA than Las is. So, yeah, I mean, I think there's probably an outside shot that a lot or that a Royal could see the big leagues this year in September. as kind of a September callup. Maybe not too dissimilar from what we saw from Harry Ford last year where it's like you barely played, but get him some seasoning up there and see what happens. But you might actually be able to help you as a right-handed like platoon bat off the bench

a little bit. Las, I would be absolutely shocked if we saw him in the big leagues this year. I think AAA is going to be a bit of a struggle for him. Well, and also you have Luke Rayleigh. You have Dominic-Han zone already at the major league level. So there's kind of a block in the way of last. Whereas with Royo, I mean, there's a pretty clear need at the Major League level for at least one right-handed bat, maybe even two. So a Royal maybe could factor in in that regard, especially once a roster's expand to 28 in September.

So we'll see on that. Then, you know, as I mentioned earlier, that note from the Seattle Times that there are some internally in the Mariners organization that view him as their 2027 left fielder. I think that's all the more confirmation that Randy or Rosarana probably not going to be back after this. season. Yeah, I think the writing's been on the wall about that for quite a while now. It was pretty clear, you know, at least to us, that it just, it wasn't going to work long term. The Mariners have a lot of players that want to, you know, lock down.

But it's just Randy has been a good productive player for Seattle, but is this a guy that they want to pay $100 million to in his 31, 32, 33, 33, 3. 34 seasons. No, that's not really their M.O. So, you know, I just, I think we all kind of assumed that this would be Randy's last year. But yeah, I think, you know, just another piece of evidence to suggest that what we expect it all along is going to be the case. This will be Randy's last year in Seattle. All right. We're going to open up the mailbag and answer some of your questions in just a moment. But first a reminder of this episode of the lockdown era's podcast is brought to you by Odo.

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your team every day. Thank you so much for making us your first listen for all things, Mariners, and also thank you for making it locked on the number one sports podcast network. Don't forget to check out the Everyday Club for ad-free episodes and access to a group chat with me and other listeners of this show. Tap the link in the description or go to Lockdown, mariners. That's supercast.com to learn more. Now let's open up the mailbag and answer some of your Mariners questions, starting with this one from Matthew who's got a draft question.

Draft coming up here on Saturday. Pick 24, what do you think the percentage breakdown of where the picks come from as far as the four demographics are concerned? So the four demographics, of course, being college pitchers, college hitters, high school hitters, high school pitchers. There's a lot of smoke around college outfielders right now with the Mariners. So I think that's where they're leaning. TCU outfielder's story of Straussner is the guy that I've heard a lot about. Virginia outfielder, AJ Gracia is another guy that I've heard quite a bit about. Who's the guy that Baseball America just mocked to them?

I believe Zion Rose. Yeah, so Zion Rose. That's another name that's kind of entered the conversation here. And that's while like the consensus and the lead up to the, the draft, you know, on a national scale has been, the mayors are going to go college pitcher, which I still think they might. You know, Kate Townsend is a guy that we've heard quite a bit about,

Taylor Raibs, another guy that we've heard quite a bit about, digging Kuhn, Coons as well from, from Tennessee. So I would say, right now, I'd give a slight edge for the likeliest outcome.

I don't have a specific percentage for you, but I'd give the slight edge as the likeliest outcome to, college hitter specifically a college outfielder then i go college pitcher then i go prep bat because there has been a little talk about trevor condon if he falls at seattle might be his floor so i'm not sure how likely that is but i'll go prep bat as the third most likely outcome here and then prep arm because i i just i haven't heard anything about them and any prep arms at 24 um i don't know if you have colby but i feel like that's something more that they're probably going to target at pick 65 which is their

I'll pick. Yeah. You know, again, it still feels like the heavy, maybe not consensus anymore, but like the heavy odds are that they would take a college arm. But, you know, when Joe Doyle tells you something about the Mariners, you listen. And we've kind of seen the industry slowly start to shift towards that direction in the lead up to the draft. And, you know, honestly, we typically have a very good idea of who the Mariners want and

who they're targeting a day or two before the draft. you know, obviously we know about last year, but we had started to see a lot of smoke around Logan Gilbert and George Kirby and Cole Young, you know, when they were drafted where they were. So it's not that uncommon that, you know, the Mariners kind of not leak necessarily, but like their teams pretty much know what's going on with the Mariners

or people who cover the draft. They know what's going on with the Mariners by the end. So I wouldn't be shocked at by, you know, Thursday, Friday, the entire industry is saying college outfielder. So I would say, you know, to break it up into the four percentiles, and also because I trust Joe so much with this draft stuff, I would say college outfielder or college bat just in general, 45, 50 percent, college arm, probably 25 percent,

and then prep bat, I don't know, call it 15 percent. And, you know, college arm or prep arm, whatever's left. I don't know, I didn't do the math. I had 10 percent, 5 percent, whatever it is. Yeah, so I feel like there's like a 50-50 shot. They draft a college bat, probably an outfielder in the first round. And then I do think like you, and because Joe, again, mentioned this, like, yeah, I think prep arm is probably the way they go in round two.

And then we'll see what they do with the rest of the draft, probably more college pitching because it's usually a little cheaper. And if you're going to go prep arm in round two, it's probably going to be overslots. So you're going to have to save some money along the way. So they'll probably draft, you know, two or three relief only. prospects in rounds three through six to try and make up the money there. So yeah, in the first round, I think college or college bat is 50, you know, 50% odds, which again, when there's four options, is a massive chunk of the odds.

So yeah, I think, I don't know why. I don't have any insight on this, but I just feel like Strauss-Snyder is like their home run pick, but he's kind of going in that 20 to 25 range. So decent odds he's not there and then we'll see what happens. But yeah, I do think they're going to go college bat actually. Next question here from Titus. Assuming that the mayor is by at the deadline, would any player make a significant difference on the season outlook?

The M seems like they only have one true need, a righty bat. But even that need feels like improving on the margins because the current starters at most spots feel like they're better than what we could get this summer. Do the players on the roster currently just need to, for a lack of a better term, play better for them to be serious contenders. To answer the last part of your question, yes. Because the biggest problem with Marys right now is that Cal Raleigh has dropped 92 points in WRC Plus from last year and they can't get all these guys in the lineup at the same time.

What was the stat that was brought up on the broadcast on Sunday, Colby? That like Brennan Donovan, Julio, Cal, Randy, Naler, etc. Like, they've only been in the same lineup as one another like 17 times this season. So the mayors haven't been able to see their their vision for this offense all the way through at really at all this season. No. So they need to get these guys back on the field. They need to keep them healthy. And then, yeah, some of these guys that are struggling right now, like Cal, like JP, need to get their stuff together, frankly.

Yeah. That's ultimately the thing that's going to let the Mariners go where they ultimately want to go. But as far as the deadline goes, it's kind of like what we're going to be. we talk about with Dan or like with the Rob Reffsnetter saga it's about putting yourself in the best position to succeed still doing like the little things to just give yourself that much better of a shot moving forward even if the problem is only five to 10% if even that you know of the whole pie of the whole blame pie and so you still want to do some things here at the deadline to put yourself in a better position to succeed can you go out and get a high leverage bullpen arm

and make a really good situation great. And it's only really good if Matt Brash comes back and is able to stay healthy. Chris Will comes back and is able to stay healthy. Kate Anderson and Ryan Sloan are actually able to give you something after being called up out of the bullpen specifically. You know, can you turn a really good situation and make it great, make it elite? Right.

And then what kind of right-hand about are we talking about here? Are we talking about Matt Veerling? because like, are we talking about Thai France? Are we talking about Rumi Gonzalez? Or are we talking about like a Taylor Ward or a Say Suzuki? Because at that point, that's a pretty substantial addition. If it's especially a Suzuki or a ward. Right.

So I disagree with the idea that you can't get significantly better at the deadline. There definitely aren't going to be a lot of high impact players that are seemingly going to be available at this deadline. So that does make the Mariners kind of a margin for error in that regard then. But I do think there will be some opportunities. And then on the reliever side of things, we'll see. You know, we don't know if Garrett Whitlock is going to be available from the Red Sox. But there should be some opportunities for the Marys to go get better. And even if it's just, you know, a 5% difference, right?

If it's not that significant, it's still, again, putting yourself in a better position. to succeed. That's ultimately the goal. Yeah, give yourself some more margin for error because right now the Mariners don't have any. So yeah, you're wrong about the right-handed bat being the only area they could upgrade. They definitely need

bullpen help. But you're also correct in saying that like nothing would be more impactful for this team than having their all-star quality players play like all-stars that they are. So Cal, the biggest reason the Mariners are where they are, he just needs to find 20, 22, 23, 24,

Cal in the second half and you're totally fine. Julio, been fine for most of the year. I know the June numbers weren't great, but still a lot of good signs and one of his better first halves. And if we know that he gets on, if he gets on a roll in the second half, he can carry you. But yeah, JP, another guy who really does need to step up. It's been a rough go for him over the last few weeks. So if you get those three guys rolling, they're going to do more for you than anybody you can

go out and get from outside the org, but you still should go out and get those guys that help you because chances are one of these guys not going to get it going. That's just the way baseball works. So go, you know, extend the lineup as much as you can, go get as much depth as you can and go build that bullpen that doesn't rely on Matt Brash and Kate Anderson and Ryan Sloan and those guys force your hand. Oh, no, I have eight high leverage relievers in the bullpen. That's never been a problem in the history of baseball. So, but that should be your goal. And we'll see what they do. But like Ty said, there's really not a ton of high impact out there right now. see what happens over the next couple weeks.

And we'll see if the Mariners are even interested if high impact names start to at the market. But yeah, the players playing better will help you more than any impact move or than any potential move you could make. But it doesn't mean you shouldn't go out and still make those moves. So we'll see what the Mariners want to do with it. We'll answer more of your questions than just a moment. But first a reminder of this episode of the Locktime Maris podcast is brought to you by Proton.

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For more information, go to Patreon. forward slash control the zone link in the description of this episode next question here from switch switch wants to know how big of a priority is it to simply acquire more minor league outfield depth at the deadline similar to seattle acquiring edward bazaardo at the 2023 deadline for depth if you can find it great you could use some more depth there so you're not relying on the connor joes uh you know miles master ponies but it can't be a priority like it if it happens, it happens. But no, I mean, like, I, like, there's not even like, you don't even have like a Ryan Stanick that you, like, if you could trade like Cooper Criswell at the deadline and get like another Ryan Thomas, fine, whatever.

Yeah. But like, no, you shouldn't, you shouldn't be like making it a priority. You already have, like, five outfielders on your 26 man already. So, yeah, it's not a priority, but it is one of those like little bonus things where it's like, hey, if I can clear somebody who I'm probably going to DFA, Chriswell, Fargus, somebody like that. Or, you know, like, I don't think you're going to trade like Nick Devella for like, you know, his level of player in the minors. But like if you could trade it like a spare reliever that you don't really have a big future for for a minor league outfielder.

Fine. Yeah, I mean, I'm not opposed to it. It's just I don't think priority is the right word. No, yeah, priority is not the right word because I, I would say that. it's probably not a priority at all for the Mariners. But yeah, if you have the opportunity to get better depth than Victor LaBrata and Spencer Packard, for example, then sure, yeah,

go do it. Yeah, and I think what you mentioned there, like if it's a Chriswell trade, if it's a Vargas trade, if it's someone like that, like if you just don't have a spot for one of those guys, once they're able to return from the injured list,

and yeah, if you're able to turn them into, you know, an outfield bat, who's kind of, you know, on the fringe of being major league ready or maybe he is major league ready, then sure. Next question here from Arid. Is the last minute piggyback changing possibly an indication that one of the starters might be dealing with something or not recovering well? So they're trying to give them an extra day.

It seems weird if they don't have some reason. Your guess is as good as ours. I literally can't answer the next question. Like, I don't. Yeah, I have no idea. You're right. I don't know. You're right.

Maybe. I hope there is some reason and they're not just winging it. I hope there's an actual reason. We know the reason why they're trying to keep Luis like a part of the rotation is because they want to trade them this summer, obviously. But as for why they keep on like dumping it with especially the Logan Gilbert, and Emerson Hancock thing. By the way, it ended up being the right decision. So it's kind of one of those weird things that it's like, I don't know. This team doesn't really have a lot of conviction.

They're kind of winging it and it's pretty obvious that that's what they're doing. So I don't know. You hope there's somebody. And, you know, again, maybe it is Hancock himself because we talked about Hancock. He's throwing a lot of innings already this year. And he's going to blow by his career high in innings pitch and all that. So maybe it's just, hey, let's give him the extra day. And let's, you know, go from there because we might need, if we trade, if we trade Castillo,

Hancock's kind of locked in the rotation until, you know, at least probably September. At which point, Kate Anderson's probably out of innings and you're just going to use him as a reliever. way. So yeah, maybe it is just instead of like, you know, shortening his starts, it's like, we'll just give you fewer starts. That way when you get to post deadline and we need you to make six more starts before the end of the year, like you still have a little bit of a gas in the tank. Maybe I don't know. Cody wants to know, do you think the piggyback slash six man rotation continues post all-star break or is it time to move Castillo or Hancock to the bullpen or maybe a trade?

I don't think we're going to get a resolution on that until after the deadline. I think what we might see happen is after the deadline or after the break, they send Hancock down to rest him, you know, for the stretch run or whatever. So they can keep Castillo in the rotation until they trade him. And then once they trade Castillo, if they can, they'll call up Hancock. I don't think we're going to see any of the six guys in the bullpen until August 4th at the earliest or, well, I guess whenever. Yeah, I mean, it would be August.

The deadline's August 3rd. August 4th is the soonest I can see one of these guys get moved to the pen. So I don't know if they piggyback after the break. I don't think they know either, which not great. But I don't think they have a clue what they're doing after the deadline or after the break either. But no, I think if they want to go five-man, they will just put Hancock down in AAA and say, oh, we're going to short start him a couple times because he's, you know, approaching career high innings pitched and all that, blah, blah, blah. We want him to be healthy and fresh, which isn't untrue, but it's also.

not the reason. Not the whole reason. So, yeah, I don't, I don't think we're going to see Castillo in the bullpen, period, until August 4th. Klotzlufkus wants to know, maybe this is a crazy idea, but should Hancock be at the starter that gets moved to the bullpen instead of Castillo? Hancock seems to be on the edge of a big any more often in recent starts, walks plus hard hits. Castillo has been better as a blade. We should mention that Klotz of Lufkis did ask this before Hancock's last start against the blue day. Yeah. I think if we get to August, I think the odds are that Hancock would be the guy. I just, I have a really hard time seeing Castillo move to the bullpen.

Like regardless. And like you said, he's been pitching much better recently. The difference between him and Hancock the last month, really negligible, really no difference. And obviously Castillo's kind of, you know, got the peltz on the wall. So to. speak and he's got a lot of big endings for you. So I think they would defer to him. And we've talked about Hancock, you know, his stuff playing up in the bullpen. And I think it would play up more than Luis's. But, you know, Luis when he's thrown 97, 98, it looks pretty good. So, yeah, I think there is a strong possibility of that. Again, I just my hunch, the way I see this playing out, I think the Mariners are going to be

able to trade Castillo by the end of the month, at which point Hancock is the five. and then obviously Anderson would be the six and they would keep him down in AA until they needed them or until they decided to make him a bullpen guy. But could they put Hancock in the bullpen? Sure. I think they could instead of Castillo, but I don't think they're going to.

All right. That is going to do it for our show. Thank you so much for joining us here on the Locktime Airs. Podcast part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Once again, an episode, it's time to make it official. Join the Lockdown Every Day or Club and get ad-free audio,

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