Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Could These Former Mariners Return to Seattle This Winter?

Starting point is 00:00:00 Yesterday we looked at the Mariners arbitration projections and told you who could get tendered and non-tendered. Today, we're going to do the same thing. But with the rest of the league, that more coming up here on the Locked-on Marrars podcast. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Ahoy, Sailors.

Starting point is 00:00:29 It is Thursday, October 3, 2024, 24. This is Taddy Gonzalez and Colby Patnaud for the Locked-on Marriers podcast. That's part of the Locked-on podcast network, your team every day. On today's show, we're going to look at MLB trade rumors.com's arbitration projections and see if there are any non-tender candidates around the league who could land on the Mariners radar. We'll also talk about the Dodgers as a potential match in a Luis Castillo trade. And finally, it looks like the Astros might be in a bit of a payroll crunch.

Starting point is 00:00:58 How does that impact the ALS outlook this off season? And could there be any opportunities there for the Mariners? Before we get into all that, shout out to our title sponsor today. Booking.com, booking dot, yeah, the right state can make you a fan of any city. Even your baseball rivals. Book today on booking.com, the official accommodation partner of Major League Baseball. Get the booking.com app today. And if you want to hear from me and Colby even more and help support the show, check out our Patreon.

Starting point is 00:01:25 The link is in the description. And you can sign up for a free seven-day trial. So not only did MLB Trade Rumors.com release arbitration projections for the Mariners, like we talked about all on yesterday's episode. They released them, of course, for every other team in Major League Baseball. So let's go around the league here, Colby, and look at some players that might get non-tendered, that might actually be of interest to the Mariners or just in general, who catches your eye in terms of guys that might get non-tendered by their team. Yeah, some of these guys are obvious non-tenders. Other ones are maybe, maybe not types.

Starting point is 00:02:06 I don't know how many of these guys fit the Mariners all that well because obviously they're being non-tendered probably means they're not coming off of a great season. Their team feels that they are expendable. And so typically that's not the type of player you want to target this winter. But there are some potential role players in here that could be nice. There are some familiar names in here that I would say reunions unlikely for two of them,

Starting point is 00:02:33 but one of them certainly very likely to have a reunion. So, you know, just scrolling through the list, there are others. These aren't the only ones. These are just the ones that on very first glance, I wrote them down as like, oh, okay, that guy's getting on Tinder. That guy's probably getting non-tendered.

Starting point is 00:02:48 That guy might be. So their value to the Mariners or their fit with the Mariners wasn't really, you know, on my mind when I made this list. but a couple guys, some names here, Trent Grisham from the Yankees, probably getting on Tendered. Andrew Vaughn from the White Sox, once taralted rookie first baseman.

Starting point is 00:03:10 He might get non-tendered. Nikki Lopez, the second baseman, is going to get non-tendered. Cal Quantrell, number five starter for, I believe the Rockies. I have reasons to love him that I can't say on this show. Right, but also the Rockies are pretty stupid. So maybe they look at, you know, Emerson Hancock and think he's worth $9 million.

Starting point is 00:03:32 So maybe that's a possibility. Old friend Thai France, almost certainly getting on Tinder as well. I can't see the Red's giving him $8, $9 million, based on what he did last year for that. No, you and I were just talking about this before we hit record. I thought France was a lot better in his Red's tenure than he actually was. slash 251, 2992, 391. That's 82 WRC Plus. He was basically the guy he was with the Mariners.

Starting point is 00:04:01 Santiago Espinall, former Blue Jay, utility type there. Brian de la Cruz was dreadful for the pirates. And as I know, the pirates not wants to spend a ton of money. So they're probably not going to take a shot on him rebounding. So Brian de la Cruz could be. non-tendered here. Former Baltimore Oriole Jorge Mateo

Starting point is 00:04:27 certainly brings a lot of speed to the table and obviously some pretty good defense as well. But, you know, the Orioles don't spend a ton of money, although they're vowing to spend more this winter, but either way. Well, they have new ownership,

Starting point is 00:04:42 so we can't really base anything off of how they've operated in the past. Right. Either way, Mattio, getting expensive last year of arbitration. and the Orioles infield depth they probably feel pretty good about. So he's probably getting non-tendered if they can't find a trade. He's interested in it because he runs really well. He can play multiple infield spots.

Starting point is 00:05:05 You can't steal first base, right? It's kind of the whole shtick there. So maybe also from the Orioles, Trevor Rogers was a disaster. The fact that they gave up Connor Norby to get him doesn't mean. anything. It doesn't mean that it's a sunk cost at this point, right? Like he's that terrible for him, bringing him back and paying him money just to be like, we didn't waste Connor Norby. It's dumb. It's not what good teams do. You just cut your lines and you move on. So Rogers is an interesting guy.

Starting point is 00:05:37 Has some great years in the big leagues, but has really struggled to stay healthy and produce the last few years. Tyrone Taylor, kind of a fourth outfield platoon type. An interesting guy, Ramon Laureano from the Guardians. they're not paying him five, six million bucks. That's not going to happen. He's on the Braves now. Yeah, sorry, it was with the Guardians. They're not going to pay him that, though.

Starting point is 00:05:57 He's a fourth outfielder. He's, his purpose was served because Acuna will be back next year. And then it kind of rebuilt their outfield on the fly again. So, yeah, he'll be out there. And then two names that are pretty funny. One of them is not going to have. I think we could safely say, like, it's not going to happen. One of them, I feel like not only could happen,

Starting point is 00:06:21 but probably should happen. So these two names, both former Mariners. We'll start with the one that I think probably should happen. How about Eric Swanson? You want to take a shot on Eric Swanson coming back? Why not? Dreadful this year, right? Obviously, he has some tragedy off the field that he had to deal with.

Starting point is 00:06:40 But Swanson, Mariners know him very well. He had some great years with Seattle. He's probably going to be pretty cheap either via trade or as a non-tender candidate. I would love to get Eric Swanson on a low. And it's one blow up year after three really good years. Yeah. So.

Starting point is 00:06:59 Right. And so, you know, again, Toronto might tender him. But I feel like they're going to move on from Swanson. And I think that if the Mariners come calling, hey, do you want, you know, $1.2 million dollars and then with incentives that, you know, easily, like, I would rather take a shot on Swanson at like one million plus incentives. then I would pay Trent Thornton the $2 million that he's going to take a shot on, that he's going to, that he's going to demand in arbitration.

Starting point is 00:07:27 So we'll see. If Swanson hits for agency, I'm very interested in that as a lottery ticket. Another guy, probably going to get tendered. Probably. Maybe. But maybe not.

Starting point is 00:07:39 It's not a sure thing. And when I saw the name on the list and I saw the number attached to him, I was like, he's not worth that. So maybe. What is the number? It's about two million bucks. Wow.

Starting point is 00:07:55 Mr. Jared Kelmick could be in danger of getting non-tendered. He was dreadful last year. He was even worse in a Braves uniform than he was in 2023 with the mirrors. All the same problems were still there. So the whole, you know, it's a better ballpark for me to hit in. The whole it's a change of scenery. Oh, I got to get out of there.

Starting point is 00:08:20 It's a disaster. Yeah, it turns out, you know, Jared Kelnick remains for now at 25 years old. The guy with a million dollar tool set and a 10 cent head because he still struck out. He still was very streaky. His defense actually declined. His base running skills actually declined. And he had, you know, he had a three week stretch where he was really good. And then the rest of the year, he was terrible.

Starting point is 00:08:45 Yeah, he had a great first week of the season. And then he was bad from that point forward. And then they put him in the lead off spot after a kum. you got hurt. And he was really good for like a couple weeks. And then fell off the face of the earth again. Sounds like Jared Kelnick to me. Oh,

Starting point is 00:09:02 and by the way, over the course of that time, he changed his setup like six billion times. Basically, Jared Kelnik, the player is dominant can zone. Same dude. Can get hot.

Starting point is 00:09:16 You know, average to slightly above average corner defense. Fast, but not much of a base dealer. yeah and he's whole power and he's 25 years old now so we're getting past the point of like you know he's still young he's still figuring it out like

Starting point is 00:09:29 we're talking about this might just be who Jared Kellnick is talking about parts of four full seasons in the big weeks like Jared Kellnick is a non-tender candidate now at $2 million dollars British probably figured they could trade them like if you're a team like I don't know Pittsburgh like maybe if you're a team like Oakland

Starting point is 00:09:46 maybe you take a shot at that price but yeah Kellnick is certainly no guarantee to get tendered despite his once promising, you know, prospect status. But, yeah, I don't foresee the Mariners getting involved there. For one thing, the Mariners already have five outfielders better than Jared Kellnick. And, you know, part of the reason they were willing to trade Jared Kellnick the way they did, our understanding is that they felt that the act had kind of worn thin in that clubhouse.

Starting point is 00:10:15 Oh, they were going to trade him no matter what. Right. So. So, yeah. Yeah. Kellnick's not coming back. But I did look at, I did read his name. And A, I was a little bit surprised that he was already arbitration eligible.

Starting point is 00:10:29 But B, I was like, that's not a guarantee. He might be out there. So, yeah, we'll see if somebody takes shot on him. Maybe the Braves take a shot on him. He's got to be close to running out of options, I would imagine as well. So, yeah, Jared Kellnick running out of time. Not much of a fit for Seattle, but Eric Swanson, I like that fit a lot. Yeah, that's pretty interesting.

Starting point is 00:10:52 So we'll put a bow on this and talk about a couple of the other guys and maybe if they potentially fit the Mariners. And then we'll also talk about Luis Castillo. Could he be a fit for the Los Angeles Dodgers? All that coming up in just a moment. But first, a reminder of this episode of the Lockdown Marineries podcast is brought to you once again by booking. Explore those U.S. cities you always secretly wanted to learn more about. With hotels, bed and breakfast, vacation rentals, resorts, and so much more on booking.com. you might just find your perfect stay even in your baseball rival city during the postseason.

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Starting point is 00:12:05 It is making its triumphant return for the 2024-25 off season. We have already put the tweet out looking for your trade ideas. So head on over to L.O. underscore Mariners on Twitter and reply to the tweet with your Mariners trade idea. We might just react to it on tomorrow's show. So just talked about Eric Swanson as a guy that we would be interested in. The Mariners bring him back if he is non-tendered. You listed a couple of other guys that are pretty interesting. I want to start with Jorge Mateo. Because again, like you said, you can't steal first base. But man, when this guy does get on base, he is electric. And he also plays pretty good defense.

Starting point is 00:12:50 at a couple of infield spots. So what kind of has to happen roster-wise in order for you to be interested in Horri Mateo? I'm not. You're not? No. I just, to me, he's basically Dylan Moore with none of the offensive upside of Dylan Moore. Because I mean, Dylan Moore, while he's certainly not perfect by any stretch and he strikes

Starting point is 00:13:15 out a ton, he can, you know, help carry an offense for a couple of weeks. weeks at a time. He does have the power. And, you know, we remember, what was it, May, May Dylan Moore, where for about a month, he was your best hitter. And like, he does that pretty much once a year. Now, it's not always a month. Sometimes it's only a week, but, um, you know, if we're talking about a guy who can play in multiple spots with above average infield defense, a guy who can steal bases, create havoc off the bench, like I already have Dylan more. Right. So I guess if you trade Dylan Moore and now you're kind of looking at it, I would still probably honestly rather go with Ryan Bliss but Bliss you don't really want to playing shortstop or third base so he's

Starting point is 00:13:54 not the ideal fit there. So yeah, I guess if you trade Dylan Moore and Mateo is coming in at less money than Dylan Moore, which is about three million bucks or right about that, then I guess it would make some sense. But short of that, I'm not really all that interested in Mateo. It's a fun player when he gets on base and, you know, puts a ball in the gap. It's got a great shot to be a triple and all that stuff. but he's a valuable player but the Mariners have that guy. Sure. And I think the guy they have is just better than Mateo.

Starting point is 00:14:24 Andrew Vaughn has been a league average-ish hitter for the last three years. We know that the Mariners at Jerry Depoto loves former first round picks. He's got some pop. Any interest in there and him? Some, but I feel like the Mariners already have this guy in their system too

Starting point is 00:14:48 and his name is Tyler Locklear like pretty much the same profile now Vaughn has more of a track record certainly in the majors so obviously it's not 19 homers this year 21 the year before like he can at the very least he can give you 15 to 20 home runs like you feel pretty good about counting on that

Starting point is 00:15:07 sure that might that might be the only thing that he brings to the table that you can count on right so yeah I mean like the strikeouts aren't ridiculous by like mariner standard so it's not like he's a big swing and miss guy but again you're getting below average power from the first base spot it's really the only position he should play his first base uh and he just hasn't hit and again he's sitting in chicago for half of his games

Starting point is 00:15:35 that's a good hitter's ballpark he's just not really producing the 297 on base this year a career 310 guy like he's fine he's probably about a league average bat um but But you're talking about a first baseman. You need more than league average from your first baseman. And he's not better than Rayleigh. You know, so I guess if you, if, but what makes Vaughn interesting is is that maybe he's a tweak guy. Maybe there's something in his swing,

Starting point is 00:16:02 something in a setup where you tweak it, right? And maybe it's an approach or something. You tweak it and you get him thinking right. And all of a sudden he's sitting 30 home runs. Because he had that type of pop in college. Like that's what he was built to be. He was going to be, you know, a slugging first baseman. He just really hasn't been.

Starting point is 00:16:17 he's been fine, but again, you're getting no defensive value. You're getting no base running value from him. So to me, if the best you could do is 20 home runs, like at least with Luke Rayleigh, who might only hit 20 home runs, you know, he's doing that again, you know, as a platoon guy in 450 plate appearances, he's doing that versus Vaughn, who's getting 600 played appearances and only hitting 20. And with Rayleigh, I get some speed and I get some, some athleticism out of it. So, uh, Vaughn, I'm not like.

Starting point is 00:16:47 super interested in it, but like if, if Edgar Martinez says, hey, I think we do this, like we can unlock something here, then yeah, I'm willing to give it a shot. Like, he's a guy I take a shot on. Sure. Just at like six, seven million bucks. No, no, I wouldn't.

Starting point is 00:17:04 And so, again, Vaughn to me feels like an Oakland A kind of. That's the type of guy that they take a shot on. But I'd be intrigued because if the Mariners bring him in, I'm going to look at it and be like, okay. Like, yeah, maybe he could be just that classic change of change of scenery, which leads to a change in approach or change in swing or whatever from really unlocking something. So I'm intrigued, but I'm not overly enthused. Like, I'm not making an effort to go get that guy.

Starting point is 00:17:35 So switching gears here. Let's talk a little bit about Luis Castillo. Obviously, we've talked a lot about the possibility of trading him. Jerry DePoto did say that trading one of the starting pitchers is plan Z. but obviously you got a guy here that's making $24.1 million each of the next few years. He's still really good. So there should be a lot of interest in him. And there's a possibility here where you can get at least some of that contract off of your books and actually get something nice in return for him.

Starting point is 00:18:06 Because again, he's still really good. So you and I, we were on our Patreon show yesterday. and we're just kind of talking and and we looked at the Dodgers it's like well Clayton Kershaw is probably going to retire and if he doesn't he's still a free agent Walker Beeler's going to be a free agent

Starting point is 00:18:27 Jack Flaherty's going to be a free agent all of their starting pitchers that seems have gotten hurt they're going to get Otani back next year on the mound they're you know presumably going to have a healthy Tyler Glass now and a healthy

Starting point is 00:18:43 Yoshinobu Yamamoto. But after those three guys, I mean, Bobby Miller's coming off of a terrible year. And then you start getting into guys like Gavin Stone and Landon Neck, etc. I think they're going to be pretty active in terms of trying to add veterans starting pitching. And it could be as simple as, yeah,

Starting point is 00:19:02 they're just going to go out into free agency and they're going to give Corbyn Burns a big deal or they're going to give Garrett Cole a big deal if he opts out of his contract, whatever, right? They might just do that or they'll get one of the mid-tier guys. they'll just resign Jack Flaherty, whatever. But maybe they want to look at Luis Castillo. So this is just a very quick mention of that just to kind of put that in your guys' brains,

Starting point is 00:19:27 maybe just follow that away for later on this offseason. But Colby, what do you think about how maybe these two teams line up on a potential Castillo trade? Yeah. So before last year, last offseason, where the daughters went crazy, their MO had been to not spend huge in free agency and to rather build via trade. Now, like even, no, it's not to say they didn't spend any money in free agency. Obviously they did before last year, but Freddie Freeman.

Starting point is 00:19:55 I mean, Freddie Freeman's getting $27 million a year. That's a pretty big contract. Right. Right. But it's not elite, right? It's not Garrett Cole money. It's not probably Corby Burns money. It's not in the 30 million A.AV plus.

Starting point is 00:20:07 Right. It's not $200 million, $300 million. Now, again, they did it with Otani. They did it with Yamamoto, very clearly. this Dodgers ownership group is getting ready to sell the Dodgers to somebody else. Probably in the next 10 years before all that deferred money kicks in, we're going to see them sell. So the way they operated in the past may not be the operate,

Starting point is 00:20:29 may not be the way they operate going forward. But in the past, the Dodgers have referred the trade route to the free agent route. They develop really well. We know that they're very good at drafting and developing. They're right up there with the Mariners, you know, but it's been a little bit of a slower churn these last few years. The Dodgers, you know, steam engine is slowing down a bit in terms of the drafting and developing, but whatever, they're still very good at it.

Starting point is 00:20:56 I think the reason Castillo would be so appealing to the Dodgers is that you listed Otani, okay, but he's coming back from a second elbow injury. You mentioned Yamamoto. He missed a large chunk of this time. And again, the Japanese schedule is a lot different than the American schedule. Glass now seemingly misses huge chunks of the year every single year. So even with those three guys, you probably have some kind of innings cap or some kind of limitation that you're going to impose on those guys. And the Dodgers have not had a starting pitcher through more than 141 innings in either of the last two years.

Starting point is 00:21:32 That is a lot of innings that need to be covered by AAA call-ups, by your bullpen, by long relief types. And the Dodgers have made it work. Of course they have. They found a way to make it work. Money can make a lot of, you know, unfortunate situations work and development can do the same thing. But at some point, right, you need availability. You need a guy who's going to go out there and give you 180, 200 innings.

Starting point is 00:21:57 You can only, you know, run this, this, you know. And I think this year they only had, if I remember correctly, they had one pitcher and the entire staff go over 100 innings this year. So they need a starter who can eat innings. It can't just be, you know, Jordan Liles, right? You're the Dodgers. You can't go out there and try and fix this with a Chad's enneeter, right? You have to get somebody who's durable, but also performs at a high level.

Starting point is 00:22:24 And that is a guy like Luis Castillo. Would Louis Castillo, or would Louis Castillo waive is no trade to the Dodgers? I mean, I don't know, but seemingly they'd probably be one of the teams that he would. It's a great, great market, great opportunity to win. And, you know, they're really good. a championship contender. Right. So, yeah, we don't know for sure.

Starting point is 00:22:45 Maybe Cassio has no interest in waiving the no trade clause at all. But if he is willing to waive it, the Dodgers seem like one of the teams that he would probably heavily consider doing it for. And as for Dodgers have enough to, you know, compensate the Mariners fairly, yes, are the Dodgers going to be willing to eat most, if not all of that salary in order to accomplish it and still give the Mariners a really great return? Yeah, of course they are. They're the Dodgers.

Starting point is 00:23:12 So yeah, the Dodgers make a ton of sense. You know, they, you can go kind of like top shelf and just go get like adult rushing type to headline. And then you get some other stuff to fill in. Maybe you go and you go get a couple of major league guys like Andy Paez and Gavin Lux, both guys who, you know, flash, but haven't really put it all together. And so maybe you just go get a couple of those guys. Remember, the daughters always have a 40 man crunch, always. You can always get a third team involved. Right.

Starting point is 00:23:39 So yes, the Dodgers make sense for Luis Castillo. Yes, I think Castillo would consider waiving his no trade clause. And I think it's the combination of both ability to post or availability of Castillo and the fact that he is a high performer still with, you know, pretty good track record in the playoffs, which is obviously going to be important to the Dodgers. I think that makes Castillo appealing more so than, you know, obviously I think plan A is for them to go get burns, a ton of money, whatever. but it's probably more appealing to go trade for Castillo and then give, you know, $20 million a year or two, whoever this year's Jamison, Tyone is, whoever this year's Taiwan Walker is, because Castillo's clearly better than those guys and he's not that much more expensive. So yeah, I do think the Dodgers in Castillo.

Starting point is 00:24:25 There's a good fit there. Again, do I think the Mariners are likely trading Castillo this winter? No, but if you told me they were going to trade him, I would list the Dodgers very high on my list of probable teams. Yeah. The Orioles are another team to potentially keep an eye on because they might lose Corbyn Burns. Sure. I would have the Dodgers ahead of the Orioles in terms of likelihoods to trade, though. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:24:48 Yeah. Maybe Philadelphia also. Potentially. All right. So the Astros apparently might be in a bit of a payroll crunch. So we're going to talk about that, how that might impact things in the AOS this off season. And if there are any opportunities for the mayors to, potentially take advantage of that despite being, you know, in a payroll crunch of their own,

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Starting point is 00:27:01 have to make some wise decisions as to are there younger players that we can call up and put in certain roles to maybe save some money here and there, allocate that money to other places. We may have to get a little bit creative. So, of course, you know, they got Framber Valdez and Kyle Tucker who are getting more expensive via arbitration. They potentially are going to lose Alex Bregman this offseason to free agency.

Starting point is 00:27:27 He already tweeted out, you know, thank you, Houston. And they gave him that standing ovation against the Mariners about a week ago. And all that. So it's possible there are some significant changes coming for the Mariners' biggest division rival this winter. So how do you think this potentially impacts things in the division heading into this offseason? What do you think the Astros are going to wind up doing this off season? Is Bregman coming back?

Starting point is 00:27:59 Are they going to have to trade a Framber Valdez or someone like that? And is there anyone on that roster you think the Mariners might be interested in? It seems to me like the easiest thing to look at here is to say like Breggman, probably not coming back. But obviously you start to look around and say, okay, well, they might have to get creative. Okay, who do they have to trade? You kind of look at who's under contract for next year and how much money they're making. They're not trading Altuvae. They can't trade Hater.

Starting point is 00:28:29 I can't imagine they're going to get many looks. at Lance McCullors, who also has a limited no trade, by the way, since he didn't pitch this year. Obviously, they're not trading Yordon. They could try and trade Ryan Presley, who had an option activate. I think they can also just buy him out for $2 million. I'm not mistaken. His option activated fully. Oh, okay. So I don't know if that still comes with a buyout, but it's, it basically, it went from, it went from a club option to either a player option or it went to, it was just an incentive based option that clicked in.

Starting point is 00:29:03 That's a $14 million. Good luck finding somebody to take $14 million from Ryan Presley. They're not going to trade Christian Javier. Maybe they get somebody to take Carantini at $6 million. And then you have a bunch of guys heading into ARB.

Starting point is 00:29:20 So, yeah. So Framber Valdez is projected to make $17.8 million. Kyle Tucker, $15.8 million. Those are the two big ones. And then the rest of the guys are making like four, three, to, you know. Right.

Starting point is 00:29:36 So we don't know what the payroll restrictions are going to be. What's going to, like, is it just like they can't go above what they were this year, which probably eliminates Bregman? I don't see them trading for Amber. Tucker, maybe, but it's not going to be to Seattle. So if you're Kyle Tucker to the Mariners, you know, that's your thing. Sorry, Lyle. Sorry, TJ. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:30:01 not going to happen. Not this year. And honestly, probably not next year because he'll probably need $300 million to sign. 27 is the new 38, according to John Stanton. So that's not going to happen. Or quitty could be interesting. He's a nice arm, but he is kind of a number five limited type. I wonder maybe Maricio DuBond is a guy who, you know,

Starting point is 00:30:23 he's got some utility, can play center field, can play second base, okay player, four point six million bucks. I might be able to shave a little there. But again, if you're having to take drastic cuts right off of your payroll, I don't think $4 million here or $3 million here is going to do it. So it's a little bit of a tough situation. Like if I could get Brian uprey you at $3.7 million, like that's a guy I would be interested in as the earners.

Starting point is 00:30:51 Even to less Chas McCormick, I still like him, even though he's a dirty, filthy cheater, tried to break Ty Francis elbow. but that would be an interesting fit. Old friend Penn Murphy, Super too. But no, I don't see a ton of like players on, you know, on this roster who make a ton of sense for the Mariners based on the amount of money they're going to make.

Starting point is 00:31:18 And again, when you start eliminating guys like Altovae, you know, it kind of gets a little tough. Now, keep in mind here that the Astros, current payroll in for 2026 or 2025 entering the off season is going to be $146 million. These are before all the R guys are added. So it's not like they're right up against it already. It's not like they're already at $200 million. No.

Starting point is 00:31:44 But again, without having like a rough number estimate, like I don't think starting at 146 is going to make them try and trade for Amber and Kyle Tucker, who are going to be making about 33. So that would push them up to about 180, give or take. So in theory, they could still sign Bregman and be at about 210 million, give or take.

Starting point is 00:32:10 And then the rest of these RRB guys, you kind of, quick math here, 8, 10, 16, 20, about $23, $24 million. That would take them up to about $2.30. right if they tendered everybody in the ARB so they started last year at 235 and then they finished the year at 244 must be nice right so yeah if the if the goal is to be or the the mandate is to be lower payroll than last year they could theoretically tender everybody yeah and be right at about where they were once they add in all the minimum salary guys yeah so but this is obviously a team that really struggled in they really struggled in the first half.

Starting point is 00:32:57 They got incredibly hot in the second half and then they get bounced on the wild card round. They get swapped. This is a team that needs to add. They have holes in first base. They have holes in the outfield. They have holes in the rotation. They have some holes in the bullpen.

Starting point is 00:33:13 And they are not going to have a ton of money to do it. So yeah, maybe they do trade for Amber. Maybe they do trade Kyle Tucker, but I can guarantee you this much. They're not trading them to the Seattle Mariners. The Astros might be willing to trade with the Mariners, but they are not giving one of their stars. No, they might trade Brian Abraeux to the Mariners. Sure.

Starting point is 00:33:31 They might trade Chas McCormick or Jake Myers to the Mariners. They might trade Ryan Presley to the Mariners, but they are not trading Jose Altovae and Kyle Tucker and Bramber Valdez or even Jeremy Pena. Like those guys are not going to be Seattle Mariners. So, yeah, specifically relating to the Mariners, is there anything here Seattle could take advantage of? not really not really it's not a good fit yeah one or two guys but role players or bullpen arms at best crazy thought here maybe we're rejected immediately it's it's astros related maybe no you'll you'll you'll agree with this uh maybe don't give a reliever 19 million dollars a year if you know that you're heading for a payroll crunch and that you might have to pay your superstar corner outfielder

Starting point is 00:34:24 maybe your, you know, franchise legend third baseman. I don't know. Yeah. The, uh, it's interesting. The one guy that the Astros will pay no matter what is Jose Altuve. It feels like they're willing to let all their other stars walk when the time comes. They let Cole walk. They let Burlander walk.

Starting point is 00:34:46 They, uh, you know, they're going to let Redmond walk. They let Correa walk. It seems like they're heading towards letting Tucker walk. But Altuvae, they'll continue to pay. Probably more than he's worth at the stage of his career. But yeah, interesting that Altuva is kind of the guy that they've decided to stick up, stick behind for their entire like run. I mean, the structure of that deal is really team friendly though. So yeah, it's a high A.V, but I'm not sure what the deferred money or any of that stuff is.

Starting point is 00:35:17 I haven't looked too closely at it. But yeah, Altube is also taking some some discounts along the way. So I don't know It's interesting But yeah Correa's gone They let Cole walk They let Burlander walk

Starting point is 00:35:29 They're probably letting Bregman walk Right like just the core of that group And then kind of the revamp of it Mostly all gone now It's pretty much Tucker and Altoube And Framber And the way that things are setting up right now You know

Starting point is 00:35:44 Tucker and Framber might be heading out the door And Brighman Here in the next two years So we'll see You know The Astros will pull something out of their, you know what, and find a four-win pitcher from somewhere deep in their system because that's what they do.

Starting point is 00:35:58 But can they replace, you know, Bregman? I mean, I don't know. You guys saw Shea Whitcomb, right? Yeah. But also when, you know, Carlos Correa laughed where we were like, oh, wow, they got so much worse at shortstop. And then here comes Jeremy Payne out of nowhere. Jeremy Payne, who's only a superstar when he plays the Meritors. So that's going to do a fair show.

Starting point is 00:36:19 but before we get out of here, a reminder that Lockdown has launched the first ever national sports 24-7 streaming channel on YouTube, and now it's also available on Amazon Fire TV and the free Fire TV channels app. Locked-on Sports Today is here for you 24-7 covering the top sports stories of the day

Starting point is 00:36:33 with the local experts of Locked-on, plus our national shows covering every league. Find Locked-on Sports Today now available on the free Fire TV channels app. Thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Mariner's podcast for Colby Patnode. I'm Tiding-I-N-Lus. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter

Starting point is 00:36:46 at L0-U-U-U-Nor-Marriners. You can follow me at Tidey Gonzalez and Colby at C-Pad 11. That's C-PAT-1-1. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day, and we'll see you next time. Peace.

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