Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Could These Trades Work for the Mariners?

Episode Date: November 5, 2021

On this week's Fan Fiction Friday, hosts Ty Dane Gonzalez and Colby Patnode read and grade your Mariners trade ideas, including a pair of John Means acquisitions, a big trade for Bryan Reynolds and a small, but realistic attempt to get Tony Kemp.Be sure to follow or subscribe to Locked On Mariners wherever you prefer your podcasts! For questions and other inquiries, email: [e-mail] the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @danegnzlz | @CPat11For more of Ty and Colby, check out their Patreon: patreon.com/controlthezone/Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You are Locked-on Mariners, your daily Seattle Mariners podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome to Locked-on Mariners, your home for Daily Seattle Mariner's News and Analysis, brought to you by Spotify Green Room. Download the Spotify Green Room app and find one of our locked-on rooms. Thank you so much for making us your first listen of the day. We are free and available on all platforms. And today is Friday, November 5th, 2021. and I know yesterday I said that it was actually Wednesday when it was Thursday, but, you know, sometimes just slip of the mind. But I am your host, Taday Gonzalez, joined as always by my co-host Colby Patnode.

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If you're new to the show, basically we take your trade ideas that you send in via email or Twitter, and we read them on air, react to them and grade them. So that's what we'll be doing today. And we grade them on the 2080 scale, which is mostly used for prospect scouting. but that's how we're going to be doing it today. And I feel like I've kind of skipped over that part in explaining how that grading scale works. But obviously, 80 is better.

And 20 is not so good. But that's how we grade these trades on Lockedown Mariners. And if you like what you hear, give the show a follow or subscribe wherever you listen to this. We greatly appreciate it. So earlier in the week, and actually before we get into the trades, I actually want to give a shout out to one of our listeners,

Jenny, who emailed us all the way out from Japan and gave us some really kind words and also sent us some pretty great information about Sayas Suzuki and Yusay Kikuchi and some of the players and some of the happenings in baseball over in Japan. That was a lot of fun to read and we greatly appreciate that that really kind message and really informative message that you sent us, Jenny, if you're listening. But let's get into these trades, starting with the ones that were submitted, via email because that was actually earlier on in the week. Got one here from Joyner, JJ,

who has a three-team deal. Actually, never mind. That one was already read on last week's episode. We're going to go over here to Aden instead, who has a three-team deal with the Mariners, Rockies, and Royals, with the Mariners acquiring second baseman slash shortstop, Coco Montez, and right-handed pitcher Ryan Feltoner with Evan White and Nikki Lopez

going to the Rockies and the Royals getting C.J. Cron the first baseman. Not really sure what this does for the Mariners and the Rockies are definitely not going to get Nicky Lopez out of this deal for just C.J. Cron. The Royals aren't going to trade Nicky Lopez for just C.J. Crone.

But what's your reaction to this trade, Colby? Yeah, I don't see what's in it really for the Mariners or the Royals. Yeah. You know, the Mariners is basically a salary dump. You know, I don't know much about Montez or Feltoner, but I don't think either of those guys are really going to help you that much in 2022. And, I mean, not that. Evan White is going to help you much.

but yeah, it's just, I don't understand the purpose of it from the Mariners. Evan White's only making $1.4 million. You can absorb that pretty easily. So you're not going to trade him for nothing because you still think there's something there. At least the Mariners do. And as for the Rock or the Royals, the Royals want Nikki Lopez. He's part of their future. So they're not going to trade for CJ C.J. Cron, especially not when they have Carlos Santana still in there.

and also Ryan O'Hern and some other guys who could play first. So three-team deals are always something interesting. But I just don't see this benefiting any team except for Colorado. And that's just, it's not going to help. So no. By the way, I did not know. Ryan Feltoner actually made his major league debut this year. So there we go.

Oh, there we go. Well, unfortunately, Aiden, I just, I don't really. see it, not from the marriage perspective, not from the Royal's perspective, I'm interested to know, are you a Rockies fan by chance? Because this does heavily favor the Rockies. Even

though with all Evan White's concerns, I mean, getting Nikki Lopez out of this deal is a huge swing compared to what the other teams are getting. So I'm going to be unfortunately given this trade, probably a 25. For being quite honest.

I'm sorry. I think if the Rockies want Nikki Lopez, they'd have to give up like Brendan Rogers or Ryan McKay. And even then, I don't know if they would do that. So, yeah, it's just it doesn't make sense for two of the three teams. Well, I mean,

like if the Mariners are convinced that Evan White is just bad, which I don't think they are convinced of that, then sure, you get a couple of guys, a potential reliever and some middle infield depth that you don't really have in your org. So I guess it could make sense for the Mariners if you buy that Evan White is just done.

But it just, it doesn't make any sense for the royals to do this deal. All right. So we got three trades here from Thomas. So we're going to quickly go through all of these here. He has George Kirby, Kyle Lewis, Noel V. Marte, and Tyler Anderson, who's a free agent. So that does not count here to Cleveland for Jose Ramirez. Quick reaction to that one, Colby. I think that gets the conversation started.

Kirby, Lewis, Marte. For sure. Yeah, yeah. I don't think the Mariners are going to trade George Kirby. I think they probably think he's their best pitching prospect. Hancock, Lewis, Marte probably is something that they would do. I don't know they would do Kirby, Louis and Marte, but it's a good trade. It's a good starting point.

Definitely starts the conversation. For sure. Sure. Yeah, I'll give that one like a 50 or 55 on that. Good stuff. but that you know and that's good on you Thomas by the way for kind of understanding what it is actually going to take for Jose Ramirez this is one of the more realistic trade proposals aside from the Anderson inclusion of course that I've seen for for you know for the mariners and getting Jose Ramirez so we have another one here Tom Murphy Dylan Moore and Brandon Williamson to the Cubs for Wilson Contreras so basically it's Brandon Williamson to the Cubs for Wilson Contreras right Yeah, I think the Cubs would probably strongly consider that. I wouldn't do it if I were the Mariners,

just because I like Williamson, and it's just one year of Contreras. But if the Mariners did do it, I would be like, okay, like, I understand it. I think it would be a pretty good deal for the Cubs. And if you're the Mariners, you certainly get it, because now you have your catcher. So, yeah, not too bad. Yeah, the Cubs get a stopgap catcher.

and Murphy, who's controllable a little bit, has obviously quite a good deal of major league experience. Dillamore is a fine utility player, especially for a team like the Cubs. So that makes sense. And Williamson's a really good prospect. I'll give this one probably a 55 or a 60, because I think this would get it done.

It just, for the Mariners in particular, you might be able to get Contreras for less than Williamson. So I would explore that first. but overall good deal. All right. Last trade here from Thomas is Zach De Loach, Emerson Hancock, Taylor Trammell or Matt Brash. So either Tramel or Brash to the twins for Byron Buxton. Man, this is a lot for a guy that is constantly been injured, has really only recently figured it out at the plate and only has a one year left on his contract.

Yeah. Yeah, that's a really great return for the twins. They would absolutely accept that. I would assume. They should. Yeah. Yeah, you know, I'm a big, I'm a big Buxton fan. Anybody who's listened to CTZ knows that.

And I would, I put out what I thought was a pretty aggressive offer on him a few days ago of Hancock and Trammell. And I thought that was, that would get it done. So adding to Loach and Brash or, you know, I guess adding to Loach, like, it's, it's a little too much. for just one year of Buxton, a guy who's only played over 100 games once. But I, you know, I understand why you would want to be aggressive on trying to acquire Bucksston,

because if he's healthy, if you can actually get him for 140 games, you might have just acquired an MVP candidate, even if it is only for one year. So I get the desire for him. It just, this feels a tad bit too much. All right. So we got another trade here from Travis,

who has the, The Mariners getting both Austin Hayes and John Means from the Orioles in return for Zach the Loach, Emerson Hancock, Dylan Moore, and Drew Steckhamrider. What's your reaction to this one, Colby? The Orioles aren't trading Austin Hayes. And I don't think they're going to trade John Means. I think teams will ask. And, you know, it's possible they do. But Baltimore, I feel like is a year kind of behind Seattle.

I think they're they're kind of hoping to, I don't think they're going to add much this winter, but I think they're also not going to subtract much. So I think they're going to try and look and see if they can build around means and Mollins and Hayes and maybe even Mancini. I think they're going to look to Mount Castle. Yeah, Adley, Rushman soon. I think they're going to look to have that core play a lot next year and see where they're at. so I don't see the moving haze

especially not for if more Steckenrider like I mean it's just you need to add more because you have to convince the Orioles that whatever you're giving them is more likely to be a part of their core in the next few years than John Means and Austin Hayes so

it's too light yeah I see the John Means situation kind of in the same light as Whitmerfield where it's a mediocre to bad team overvaluing its very few legitimate assets. You know, how the Royals asked for one of the Mariners' top five prospects for a good, not great with Merrifield. And, you know, the same thing about John Means is he's a middle of the rotation pitcher. He's not a ace. He's not even a number two.

At best, he's probably a number three. and that's just not worth really you know in the in all reality it's just not worth that kind of return that they're probably going to ask which is probably someone like noel v martay emerson hancock george kirby etc that's probably what the orials are going to start with then you add austin hayes on top of that i just that's way too rich for my blood uh with both of those guys um yeah I mean, it's... Yeah. Not that they're bad players. They would certainly help. They would certainly make the Mariners better. But I don't want to go overpay with a bad team for players that are only going to move the needle so much.

It's, I mean, it's like, would you trade Julio Rodriguez for Marco Gonzalez? No. No. And that's pretty much how the Orioles are going to treat John Means. Maybe we're wrong. but I think he's got three years of club control left. Baltimore, I think, wants to be competitive sometime in 2023. And so the guys who are...

Pitching market is going to be ridiculous this offseason, whether it's the trade or free agent market. So you've got to factor that in as well, along with the Orioles overvaluing their few assets. Agreed. So, yeah. So we're going to look at more trades this time coming from Twitter in just a moment, But real quick, a reminder of this episode of Lockdown Mariners is brought to you by Bilt Bar.

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That's LOC, KED-1-5 for 15% off your order at built.com. You're listening to Lockdown, Mariners. Thank you again for making us your first listen of the day. Every day, we're going to continue with these trade proposals from you guys, starting with Eli Sellers on Twitter, who has a Brian Reynolds trade proposal with the Pirates. and it is a pretty big one. The Mariners, of course,

receive Brian Reynolds, five and a half win outfielder last year by Fangraph standards, still young, still controllable. And the pirates receive no LV Marte, Emerson Hancock,

Zach the Loach, and Edwin Arroyo, the Mariners second round pick in this year's draft. What's your reaction to this one, Colby? And do you think this is enough to get the conversation going

with the, with the pirates for Brian Reynolds, who of course was reported to have asked for Julio Rodriguez earlier this year. No. I don't. I think it should be. Yeah.

I think Pittsburgh is going to be a little unrealistic with Reynolds, and it makes sense, right? I mean, he's not making any money yet. He's an all-star. And they should ask for Julio. They absolutely should. They should ask for Julio.

They should ask for Julio. They should ask for Kelnick. They should ask for Gilber. you know, they should ask for one of the Mariners very best. And Seattle's going to say no to all of that. And so you kind of start looking at the second tier guys. And that it, those are guys like, you know, Hancock and Marte. But is Pittsburgh going to take that?

I don't know. I just, if Reynolds was making a little more money, probably because Pittsburgh is cheap, like notoriously cheap. But is it, is this enough to, to make, you know, Pittsburgh consider an offer that doesn't include Julio. I don't think so. And it's not because it's a bad offer. It's just because I think Pittsburgh is only trading Reynolds if it gets, you know, the moon in return.

Yeah, I agree. And this kind of ties into the conversation that we had about the Orioles and hanging on to their, you know, few assets that they have. I mean, the pirates are even, are in an even worse position than the Orioles are. really Brian Reynolds is their big chip along with Brian Hayes of course they have a pretty decent farm but um you know and they got some young players that are coming up to the major league level that are interesting but um yeah Reynolds is you know uh he was a top 10 hitter in baseball this year um like you said not making any money yet still under three years of club control i believe and um he's they're just going to ask for something astronomical and i just i just i

I don't think that they're going to move off of him for anything less than Julio Rodriguez or Jared Kelnick. And I think at that point for the Mariners, I mean, it's up to you because really, you know, you're kind of hoping that either Kellnick or Rodriguez and Kellnick more so becomes Brian Reynolds. Yeah. But you got to add on top of that as well. You know, you're not just going to be able to get Brian Reynolds one for one for Kellnick or Rodriguez. is there's going to have to be something pretty nice added on top of that. So you have to factor that in as well. And at that point, I don't know, the the cost might be a little too rich for Jerry to

Poto's blood. But, you know, it's certainly a way to be aggressive. And Reynolds is, you know, one of the better players in baseball now who still seems to be kind of on an upward trend here. So, you know, if you feel that it's necessary to get that done and that's how you want to build your roster, then so be it. Because, I mean, again, the thing with even guys like Julio Rodriguez who seem like they're going to be superstars, you never know.

You never know. So I might want to go for the sure thing, but that's, that's going to be expensive. That's going to be pricey. So I'm going to give this deal because it doesn't have Julio or Kellnick, and I really think that's the only way that they're going to get a Brian Reynolds trade done. I'm going to give this one a 45. What about you? I'd probably give it like a 52.

I think the valuation is about right. It's just a matter of would Pittsburgh pull the trigger on it. I doubt it. One other thing to keep in mind, Pittsburgh did draft Henry Davis at 1-1, and Davis is probably going to be in the big leagues within a year and a half. So that doesn't really suggest a team that thinks that it's five years away. So we'll see.

But, yeah. all right so we got a trade here from one of our pretty active listeners who interacts with us here on fan fiction Friday and also mailbag Monday and that's rochon brat who has another Orioles trade with the mariners and by the way I don't believe that we ended up grading Travis's trade for John Means and Austin Hayes do you want to slap a grade on that real quick 35 40 Yeah, probably about there. Yeah, just because it's just so low what the, below what the Orioles are probably going to ask, which is more ridiculous on the side of the Orioles side of things than anything, really. But so Rocheon also has a John Means trade here and also has Tray Mancini in the steel with the Orioles receiving Emerson, Hancock,

and Levi Stout. And he adds that might have to add Jake Freely or Taylor Tremel in the steel as well. So we'll look at it as Hancock, Stout, and Fraley, or Tremel. What do you think about this deal from Roshan? Same problem. I don't see them trading John Means for anything less than elite prospect in return. And Mancini might be made available, but I think there's still value to Mancini in Baltimore, you know, kind of the leadership and also the overcoming adversity that he did.

It's hard to see him trade Mancini, and it's not like Mancini's blocking anybody, really, in that organization. So Mancini could be made available. I could see that. I'm not saying that he won't be traded. I just don't think he'll be traded with John Means, and it wouldn't be for that package. I think if the Mariners want those two, the Orioles are going to ask for Kirby. They're going to ask for, you know, Hancock or Gilbert, probably not in Hancock. And while Means and Mancini help, the Mariners answer there should be no.

They should immediately hang up the phone at that point. Yeah. So yeah. So grade for that one. Colby. Same thing. 3540. I think you guys are probably properly or pretty closely, properly, properly grading John Means, what he's worth.

I just don't think the Orioles agree with you. All right. So we got a couple more trades to go over in just a moment. But real quick, a reminder of this episode of Lockdown Mariners is also brought to you by betonline.ag. We're back and better than ever. A new web interface for the start of the basketball season

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right to your favorite Vegas casino games. Don't wait to take advantage of all the amazing offers available for the 2021 season. Bet Online is the fastest and easiest way to bet on all your favorite sports. Bet Online, where the game starts. Three more trades to go here. we're going to start with Jackson underscore P&W on Twitter. And Jack's proposal here has the Mariners getting Tony Kemp, the second baseman slash the left fielder from the A's,

for Jake Frailey and Isaiah Campbell. I think this is pretty fair compensation. I do like Kemp. He's obviously not my first, second, or even third choice for left field or second base. but as a fourth outfielder slash, you know, kind of utility-ish type, really he can only play those two positions for the most part. He's not really a true lead-off guy.

We've talked about him before, but, yeah, I mean, the ceiling is kind of capped with him. He kind of overachieved this year. So not super excited about Tony Kemp overall, but what do you think about this deal? I think it's pretty fair. I feel pretty confident that Oakland is going to sell

and anybody who's making money is probably available. Kemp's not going to make a lot of money and Oakland still does have to, you know, put a team out there. So I don't think they're desperate to trade Tony Kemp, but they get Jake Frealey who's, you know, I mean, fourth outfielder very, I mean, Freely seems like an Oakland A at the plate. So yeah, I think it's pretty fair.

I'm not a huge Tony Kemp guy though. So I would like to do a little bit better, but you could definitely see the value of Tony Kemp in this lineup. And Campbell, I still really like, but he hasn't thrown a professional pitch yet, or he hasn't in a while. So it's kind of tough to have much value in that right now. So I think it's a pretty good deal.

Yeah, so I'll give that one like a 60, 65, honestly, might even go higher because I think that commentation is spot on. I think it's realistic. I think it's creative enough. It's a 50 because it's still only Tony Tony Kemp. Okay, sure.

I was trying to give someone a high score finally for once. I feel like we're always like, yeah, it's 45 to 50. That's most of you, by the way. As everybody, as everybody knows, I am the optimistic one. of course of course yes as you always are well established uh so uh eli sellers has another deal uh to propose Kyle Lewis for Chris Paddock and Victor Carantini so Paddock the right-handed pitcher from the Padres with a quite a bit of upside still hasn't really reached the ceiling dealing with an elbow issue and keratini a solid catcher um what do you think about this deal?

I don't think it's enough from the Mariners side of things. Even though that Paddock, like I said, hasn't reached the ceiling. There's obviously the elbow concerns. I mean, Kyle Lewis hardly played this year. I guess the real concern for the Mariners is that Paddock actually has reached the ceiling. True. That's true, too. But, yeah, obviously, you know, you and I both think that Paddock has another gear.

My question is, is why would the Padres want Kyle Lewis? I just like aren't they going to aim for something higher if they're going to add an outpeelder? Because they're still, they still have World Series aspirations next year. I mean, they kind of can't not have it if that makes sense. They're all in on this window. So it just doesn't really make sense to me that they would trust Kyle Lewis. And I think they can get more perpatic and Karenini because the catcher class this year, pretty weak in the starting pitching class this year also pretty weak and there are a bunch of

teams that need those positions so I think they could do better for both um but uh I do give it high marks for creativity that's certainly a fun uh you know kind of not necessarily failed prospect for failed prospect but it's a it's a you know um my unguys guys with high ceilings that are just like you don't you don't know right you've seen flashes and there's a lot of good there but then you're also have a lot of questions about if you'll ever see it again. Yeah. Yeah, that's a good way to put it. So I'm going to give this trade probably a 50.

Yeah. Right there in the middle. Yeah. Sure. Yeah. All right. So last trade here from Daisy Dingo at Daisy underscore Dingo. Mariners received Madison Bumgarner, Carson Kelly, and Kittel Marte from the Diamondbacks for

Emerson Hancock, Kyle Lewis, Caden Polkovich, and Connor Phillips. as Daisy Dingo here mentions though, bumgarner does have a no trade clause. He's also making $17 million Aav through the 2024 season. So that's not super ideal, but you would be obviously taking on the money here and that does help in theory with compensation. But this is a lot that the Mariners are both giving up

and also getting a return. And yet it's not enough. Yeah. Carson Kelly might be the best catcher in baseball. He's certainly up there. He can hit. He's a good defender. And Catelle Marte is obviously, you know, when healthy, he's one of the better players in baseball too. So two all-stars, Madison, Bumgarner, making all that money would lower their value some. But I don't think it lowers it enough to be in the Hancock, Lewis, Polkovich, Phillips thing. I think if you want, if you want Kelly and Marte, you're, you're, you're, you're. You're talking Julio, you're talking Kellnick, you're talking Gilbert or Kirby. I just have a hard time seeing Arizona trade those two guys, even with Bumgarner's contract for, you know, anything less than elite elite elite elite elite elite major leaguers. Yeah. And Madison Bungarner is actually okay this year, too.

Yeah, he was pretty solid. obviously had the no hitter that didn't count for whatever reason just because it was in seven innings instead of nine stupid. Yeah. Yeah. But yeah, I'm not as high on on Kelly as you are. I think he's really good. But yeah, I just, this is not going to get it done.

The Diamondbacks have really no reason to trade either one of these guys. They're under control. And the Diamondbacks are one of those teams. that they should rebuild but they won't yeah they should rebuild but they don't they won't rather so yeah i just i don't know if if they would even really entertain that if that would even be really a good first step um they're going to ask for hello calnick etc although one thing i did not realize is that carson kelly has appeared in parts of six major league seasons already.

Wow. He's got two years. So wait, is he not controllable? No, he is. Oh. You got two years left of him. But yeah. I had it in my head that he had four.

Yeah, same. But in 2018 through 2016 through 2018, he only appeared in 53, sorry, 63 games in those three. He's basically been a full-time player

for the last three years. And Marte has club options in 2023 and 2024 as well. So right. It's a lot of control that you're still trading for there. So yeah. I'm going to give this one.

It's certainly creative. So I'm not going to pan it. I'm going to say like a 45. You are so you are such a jerk. I'm going to give it a 46. So yes,

you are. Wow. No, it's, I'm the jerk. It's probably a 50. Like I like the adding money element and all that stuff. And obviously I like Kelly and Marte. But yeah, just again, if you want those two guys, I just have a hard time imagining you're getting either or both of them without

Julio, Kelman. Gilbert Kirby, one of those four. But who knows? Arizona's really weird. They are really weird. They are really weird. But yeah, thank you so much for sending all your trades, though. We really appreciate it.

That was a lot of fun. And you guys came through with some pretty interesting ideas this week. So that was pretty cool. And enjoyed all the emails that we got as well. And if you want to send more, trade ideas. You can do that at Lockdown Mariners at gmail.com or at L-O- underscore Mariners on Twitter.

And that's going to do it for our show today. Thank you so much for joining us here. And for Colby Pat note, I'm Taday-D-A-G-D-A-N-Z. Be sure to give us a follow at Dane Gonzalez, that's D-A-N-Z-L-Z and Colby at C-P-E-E-P-A-T-1-E. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. And thank you again for making Lockdown Mariners your first listen of the day every day.

We'll be back on Monday with our weekly mailbag. So be sure to send us your questions on Twitter or by email again. That's Locked-on Mariners at gmail.com. But in the meantime, make your second listen of the day, Locked-on MLB, where Paul Francis Sullivan and please call him Sully brings you his unique perspective on the major leagues president pass. It's free and available on all platforms, just like us. So have yourself a beautiful baseball weekend and we'll see you on Monday.