Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Crafting a 26-Man Wild-Card Roster

Episode Date: September 27, 2021

Locked On Mariners hosts Ty Dane Gonzalez and Colby Patnode look ahead to a possible Mariners postseason appearance and craft a 26-man roster for the one-game playoff.Be sure to follow or subscribe to Locked On Mariners wherever you prefer your podcasts! For questions and other inquiries, email: [e-mail] TWO TICKETS TO THE MARINERS-ANGELS GAME ON SATURDAYFollow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @danegnzlz | @CPat11For more of Ty and Colby, check out their Patreon: patreon.com/controlthezone/Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You are Locked-on Mariners, your daily Seattle Mariners podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Hello and welcome to Locked-on Mariners, your home for Daily Seattle Mariner's News and Analysis. It is Monday, September 27th, 2021. Thank you so much for making us your first listen of the day. My name is Tidei Gonzalez. I am joined as always by my co-host Colby Patnode.

You can follow us on Twitter. at Dane Gonzalez, that's D-A-N-E, G-N-Z-L-Z, and C-P-A-E, that C-P-A-T-1, also follow the show at L-O-O-U-U-N-Rourners. Be sure to also check out our Patreon where we talk about the Mariners even more. Also get into some non-baseball talk twice a week. It's a pretty fun time. New episode dropping today for our tier two and three patrons. Visit patreon.com forward slash control zone for more information.

on today's episode of Lockdown Mariners, we're going to daydream a little bit. Mariners playoff chances are not in a great spot after the Yankees swept the Red Sox at Fenway Park this weekend, but they're still mathematically in it. Just two games out with six to go, but they're going to need some help from some unlikely sources, and they're obviously going to need to win some games as well.

But if they do make it, they have to craft a 26-man roster for the wildcard game, and we're going to build that roster today to go. together. So if you like what you hear, give the show a follow or subscribe wherever you listen to this. We'd greatly appreciate it. So Colby, before we get into this, how about you kick things off here by kind of laying out the guidelines that we have to abide by to create this roster? So everyone's on the same page. Yeah. So postseason rosters, pretty cut and dry. It's a 26-man roster. So we revert back to April through August rules here. anybody who was on the 40-man roster or the 60-day IL as of 1159 p.m. Eastern time of August 31st is eligible for the postseason.

Anybody on the restricted list would also be eligible if they weren't suspended for performance-enhancing drugs. It doesn't really apply to Seattle. There is a way to add a player who wasn't on the 40-man prior to August 31st, and that's basically as an injury replacement. So if and that's only if the player who's injured has already served his full time on the IL. So for example, right, if you say Kikuchi were to be placed on the IL and you wanted to replace him on the playoff roster with or you wanted to put Matt Brash on your playoff roster, Kikuchi would have to have already been out for 10 days before you can do that. So yeah, that's that's not really an option here. But that's basically it. It's really not that hard. There's no limit to how many

pitchers you can have. There's no limit to any kind of, you know, you don't, you can't, there's not a minimum. You have to carry for pitchers or position players. And these rosters that you submit, they change each round. So if Seattle were to, say, get into the wild card round and they win that game and they move on to the ALDS, then they can submit a brand new 26-man roster that they can use for, for that round. and it just carries on like that all the way through to the World Series.

So you kind of have to look at it in a very strategic way here because, again, like you mentioned, it resets if you advance. So you're only crafting a roster here for one game only. So that creates some interesting decisions here. So let's talk about the starters here because Chris Flexen is right now scheduled to start game 162. And then if they were to get into a playoff game or a play end game, that would fall. on that fateful you say Kikuchi start, which we don't even know how that's going to look tomorrow, let alone a week from now if they get to that point. So what is your strategy here with the starting pitchers and building this roster? Yeah, so you're not going to be in a position where you can,

you know, choose to skip flexen. I doubt that very much that you're going to go into game 162 knowing that you've secured a playoff spot. So flexen is going to have to make that start. And because he's going to make that start, he's not going to be ready to pitch the day after, the day after the day after. Two days rest, he's not going to be ready to pitch. So you kind of have to leave him off of your 26-man roster because you can't use him. So, yeah, you say Kukuchi would be the guy now because of the day off. That's coming up on Thursday and also the day off on the day after the season after game 162. you can skip Kukuchi and go with Gilbert.

And even if you're not going to go with Gilbert or even if you're not going to go with Kikuchi, you probably someone, Gilbert on the rotation on the roster because he'll be well rested. So for me, what it comes down to here is that Kikuchi, Gilbert, and Anderson should be good to go for this start. And so that's probably who you want to carry on your roster. Marco pitches, I believe, on Saturday. So that's, you know, not impossible that he could be ready on a Tuesday. But it's going to be limited. And I think I'd rather just carry Gilbert and Kakucci and Anderson.

So I'm probably carrying those three starters, my three most rested starters. But you could definitely make an argument that if we're only going to use Marco for an inning or two, that he can be in there over Anderson. but I'm only carrying the three starters on the initial 26 man. So and another thing to keep in mind here is if you do advance next series is a best of five. So you're probably only going to be using three starters in that series doing a three-man rotation.

Maybe four. So do you consider using Logan Gilbert or Tyler Anderson, etc., in that wild card game? And if so, who would you prefer? Using them how? Like just out of the ball pen? So let's say that you say Kukuchi starts, right? Or they start with a bullpen day or something.

Or maybe they do skip ahead and they put Gilbert there to start. You know, obviously you want whoever gives you the best chance to win that game because that's ultimately all that matters in that moment. You're really not thinking about the series ahead because that's not guaranteed. So, you know, who would you prefer to go to how many of these guys would you use, if any is really what I'm trying to get here? In the wild card game, I'm using whoever I have to. There is no tomorrow if you lose. So I'll worry about who starts game one later. And with the days off and all that stuff, I can conceivably start Chris Flex in game one or game two.

And if I don't use Marco, I could start him game one or game two. So I'm not too worried about that at all. You know, if I'm starting the wild card game and I want to try and get some endings out of my starter, I'm probably going to use Gilbert at this stage, particularly if he's going up against New York or Boston. Those are right-handed heavy lineups. Gilbert's probably the guy I'm going to. It's unfortunate that they'd have to go into hostile territory in pitch in that scenario,

even if they are facing Toronto too. again another right-handed heavy lineup so i think gilbert's the better bet there to start that game if it was me um we'll see what what uh what scott and company want to do but uh i think there's a really good shot that you know you carry those three starters in that wildcard game i think there's a decent chance all of them get you know a couple batters at least but i would i would start gilbert yeah you know it's it's kind of sketchy right because you're you're starting a rookie in the first playoff game in what 19 years for your organization pretty big mom moment at Yankee Stadium or Fenway Park or even Rogers Center.

All of those stadiums are going to be cranked up. And it's not ideal, but you also don't really have any better options. And again, you're going to need Marco Gonzalez and Chris Fluxin to make their starts against the A's because you need to win those games. Those are must win games. So you have to also treat those games as a one game playoff in a way as well. So it's a it's a tough spot you're in It's a it's a tough spot you're in But I probably I'm probably with you

On on starting Gilbert because I mean just from a matchup perspective I think that's what gives you the best shot And I just don't know how you can justify Given you say Kikuchi the ball And the most important game in franchise history in 19 years With the way he's been pitching the last couple months So we'll see

So you know we're we'll also, you know, entertain the idea of possibly a bullpen start. Um, if it has to come to that. We're going to talk about how we would craft this bullpen in just a minute. But real quick, a reminder of this episode of Lockdown Mariners is brought to you by direct TV. Does this sound familiar? You've got one device that lets you catch the game live, another that lets you stream your favorite shows. You're watching sports highlights on your phone.

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And this is Locked on Mariners. Thank you again for making us your first listen of the day. If you're a Seahawks fan and want to hear more about, well, that pretty terrible loss in Minnesota. Check out Locked on Seahawks after you're done with this. But let's get back into this 26 man wild card roster talk. And talk about the bullpen because this has been the crutch for this team.

And if they are fortunate enough to make it to the wild card game, they're absolutely going to need the bullpen to help them out quite a bit, especially if you want to get creative with things and maybe, you know, let your, maybe have all three of your starters that you carry pitching this game. And, you know, you might have to go inning by inning with it and do it by committee, basically. So a lot of spots here to give, especially if you're only going to carry three starters into this game.

So, you know, how do you want to craft your bullpen? What's the strategy? with that for you and how many spots are you maybe willing to give up to, you know, fill out the rest of your position players and, you know, your bench and everything with that. Is there a shortcut you want to take with that? Are you trying to get as many pitchers on this, on this roster for that game as possible? Well, you definitely want as many are. You don't want to run out of arms, right? That's, that's the fear here. So, I mean, for me, when I look at this bullpen, I'm not worried so

much about length. So anybody who is a, you know, a long reliever type, like your Justice Sheffields or you're Matt Andreese, anybody like that, they're not on this roster. I'm not worried about length. If I have to use, you know, Casey Sadler for two and a third, then I have to use Casey Sadler for two and a third. Again, I don't care about tomorrow in a one-game playoff. So, yeah, as in terms of bullpen, you're definitely going to carry Castillo, Steckinrider, Sadler, and Seawald. I really don't think that's upper debate. I also think you're going to want to carry Joe Smith. And then after that, it's, you know, I don't know that I would use Ms.

Mischavitz, but I think, you know, he's going to make the, you would make the bullpen. And then I think, you know, I think Swanson is also probably going to make this bullpen as well. Do a little? When's the last time do a little pit? Did he did he even pitching the blowout? I can't remember. I don't even remember I The thing though would do little is you know this is a guy that's been there done that and there isn't a lot of guys in there that has that and I feel like if you're going into a Yankee stadium stadium or a Fenway Park you might need a guy that's dealt with that a little bit because you got a lot of young guys here and

you know especially especially if you're going up against that you know that that stack that starts with devors you know specifically talking about the the the Red Sox or maybe, you know, you got Gallo and Rizzo with the Yankees, etc. You might need that left-handed pitcher to come in there and be tough on the lefties. But, yeah, it's definitely a risk. Like, you could see Doolittle coming in with two outs like to face like Joey Gallo or Anthony Rizzo or Raphael Devers, right? But if he doesn't get that guy out and J.D. Martinez, Giancarlo Stan, Aaron Judge is on the guy. you know, you're, you're out of luck. And so, but I do think there's something to be said to having that guy who's been there,

Doolittle's pitched in the World Series. So I think there is something there. So I think I think ultimately my bullpen is going to be Castillo, Steck and Ryder, Sadler, Seawald, Joe Smith, Anthony Mischavits, Eric Swanson, Johann Ramirez, and Sean Doolittle. It's really interesting because, you know, so how would you structure it then? Let's say that you know you're going into this game. Let's say that Logan Gilbert is making the start, right?

Like we talked about earlier. So how are you structuring that? How long are you letting Gilbert go? And then who are you going to after that? Are you going with one of your top guns? Are you going Paul Seawald in like the fourth inning, fifth inning? Depending on the leverage. Yeah.

I mean, the overwhelming odds are is that you're going to be in a close game, especially since you're going to be clearly the least talented team in the playoffs. So it's, you know, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, I just got to start with my best and work my way down. And then, and hopefully, hopefully, Logan can get me five. And then I can do, you know, CWald, Sadler, second rider Castillo to cover the last four. That would be great. But again, if I'm only able to get, say, three, right? If I only get three from Logan Gilbert, that's still okay, because now what I can do is I can go to hypothetically, let's say Gilbert gives me nine outs, right?

He just goes through the order, one, two, three. He gives me three endings, gets the nine outs, doesn't give up any runs, blah, blah. Well, I'm probably keeping them in to start the next inning. But if I wanted to, I could say, okay, here's Seawald. He's going to go one, one, two, three, and then he's going to go in phase four, five, six. And then for seven, eight, nine, I'm going to go out to, say, Tyler Anderson or whatever. And he's going to go seven, eight nine, and then I'm going to go out to Sathlet, to go back to one, two, three, right?

So it doesn't work out like that. It's not ever going to be that neat unless you're throwing a perfect game, which, I mean, come on. But, yeah, it's Gilbert. And then depending on what the scores at, if you're tied or you're within one swing of the bat, I'm going right to Castillo,

second rider, Sadler, Seawall. They're my first four out of the pen. And if I have to, you know, have to pray that Joe Smith can get through the ninth because I didn't score until the eighth, then so be it. I have to do everything I can to keep the game within reach. And so maybe that means, you know,

Eric Swanson is trying to close out a wild card game. Or maybe it means I have to ask Paul Seawalt to go a third inning or something like that. But that's what you have to do. So I'm keeping track here. 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12. We're at 12 pitchers here with Coochoochee Gilbert, Anderson, Seawald, Steak and Riders,

Castillo, Sadler, Ramirez, Mischovitz, Doolittle, Smith, and Swanson. so that's going to create 14 positional player spots. We're going to talk about those guys in a moment, but first, a reminder of this episode of Lockdown Marin is brought to you by Bilt Bar. Don't you hate it when you're out and about in hunger strikes, but the only convenient options are unhealthy

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And you're going to have to rely on them to at least scrape together a couple runs off of Chris Sale, Derek Cole. I don't, I don't know how it all lines up for, uh, for the teams that you might potentially go against, but, uh, you're going to be throwing the inferior pitcher. Like, let's be clear about that. you're going to face a really good starter. Yeah. Yeah.

It's going to be, who it's, it's not going to be a very advantageous matchup for the Mariners, no matter who really it is. But you never know. You never know. So let's talk about these positional players here. Like I said,

before we, we switched over to the segment here that we have 12 pitchers. That's what we kind of came to an agreement on here with building this roster. So we got 14 spots left for positional players. So let's just run down the list here. Are you keeping all three

catchers that are currently on the roster? Yes. I mean, Torens is not really a catcher this year. Yes. Okay. So Tom Murphy, Luis Trens, Cal Raleigh, all on it. Ty France obviously going to be on it. Abraham Toro obviously going to be on it. Kyle Seeger,

obviously going to be on it. J.B. Crawford, of course. Jared Kellnick, Mitch Hanigar, Jake Bowers. Jake Fraley. So that leaves two more spots. Three more. Three more. Are you calling up Donovan Walton?

Are you calling up Taylor Tramel? Are you calling up Marcus Wilson? Who are you going with here? Who do you think add some value from who's not on your current roster? Yeah, I'm going with Donovan Walton as kind of the emergency infielder. you know again sometimes you get into situations in the playoffs where hey you know Toro's not a good matchup against this guy but you know who is Jake Bowers just as an example and it's okay well Jake Bowers can't play second and we really don't want Ty France to play second

that's why had Donovan Walton there in an emergency in an emergency and then the other guy I'm adding to my roster is I'm adding Taylor Trammell because I want the defense I want the speed and, you know, break glass in case of emergency, I know there's power there. Could he come off the bench and, you know, hit a big home run for me? He could not super likely. And, again, if you're using Tremel and Walton, it's because you took a big risk early.

And now you're asking these guys to, you know, cover some innings for you. Tremel, I could see them using late as a defensive replacement. You know, if you're up, say, three to two in the ninth, I mean, at that stage, it's, you know, screw keeping Mitch Hanigers bat in the lineup. I need an outfield of Praley, Kellnick, Tramel, because I got to cover some ground here. So Tramel I want is as defense and base running mostly. Walton is kind of the emergency guy.

And then after that, it's just, you know, the standard 12 you've been rolling with for a while now. And it's, it's, you know, playing the matchup with those guys. Yeah, the one guy that would be really helpful who's not available to you. you right now. Sam Haggurty would probably be pretty valuable to a to a to a playoff team in this one game playoff for the speed and everything that he

brings off the bench but Walton's fine right he's he's a fine defense he's serviceable right you know solid base runner yeah pretty good a second yeah

and like you said like say that you have to go like say that they bring in a leftie to face J.P. Crawford, right? And you want to bring Louis, I mean, Louis Trens is probably starting. You want to bring Cal Raleigh off the bench, right, just to take a shot.

Right. You know, you throw on Donovan Walton. You should be fine. Where do you think Dylan Moore fits into all of this? Do you start Dylan Moore? Do you have more come off of the bench? What are you doing with Dylan Moore in this game? That probably depends on who's out there pitching.

I mean, if it's, if it's sale, do I think Jake Freely has a better shot against sale or Dylan Moore? Well, I don't think either has a particularly good shot, but I mean, it's probably Dylan Moore has a better shot. So that's who I'm going with. If it's a lefty, if it's a righty, it's a righty, I'm probably going with Jake Bowers, to be quite honest with you. But Seattle probably is going to go with Fraley.

But yeah, I would keep the platoon just as it is. Lefty on the mountain. Dylan Morrison left field, riding on the mound, it's Braley or Bowers. So let me ask you this, because I'll be honest, I don't watch too much postseason baseball because I'm just kind of fatigued by the season. And usually the Mariners have had a terrible year and I'm just kind of over it at that point. But from the times that I have watched postseason baseball, especially with teams like the Giants who at face value, kind of like the Mariners,

don't seem super talented on paper compared to the other teams. that they that they are playing amongst but um there's always like some guy that just jumps out of nowhere that is a huge contributor obviously you know you think about again using the giants as an example here travisi shikawa hidden that home run in the nLCS whatever like four years ago who do you think has like the potential to be that kind of guy that just comes out of nowhere for the mariners and and has a great postseason just a great most season just a great moment in the postseason. Who do you think could surprise someone?

I mean, who do I think could surprise us? Yeah, I feel like, tough one. I kind of feel that, honestly, Jake Bowers, to be perfectly honest with you. Yeah. I know that sounds kind of homerish, but Bowers has been swinging the bat better lately. The quality of the contacts way up. By the way, when you mentioned Jake Bowers, that's what, this question because that's who I thought as well.

There you go. So yeah, I kind of think, I kind of think like if anybody is going to be that Travis Ishikawa or whatever type of guy, I kind of think it's Jake Bowers. I think he can do enough on the field that he can maybe steal a big base for you or he can make a really good nice play or he could hit a home run or have a great at bat. Like he's capable of doing all those things. And yet it's, it hasn't happened enough that people would expect it. right like if jp does that people are like oh well i mean yeah i mean even if dillan more does that i mean

dillan more is germane curse so it's it's yeah of course dillemore came up in this random big spot because that's pretty much dillan more's entire like you know that's pretty much his whole thing yeah so i think bowers is the guy to that question to be quite honest with you um yeah so yeah i'll go with jake powers yeah i think it uh i think it could be bowers i think it could be taylor Trammell even. You mentioned the power. You mentioned that it's probably not a great shot, but I could see Taylor Trammell just randomly coming in and hit in a home run because why not? That's been kind of his thing this year is he's had a few moments here where it hasn't been a great season for him by any means. He got sent down. He hasn't had a good time down in AAA. But he's shown some power this year, which wasn't really a massive

part of his game going into this year. But you've seen that at least. play at the major league level and who knows maybe he comes up with the key home run for you in a big spot. Maybe you know if he's forced to be a defensive replacement later on in the game or something so there's definitely some guys here who I think could

could pop. Tom Murphy's another guy that you know who knows he might be able to come up with some big you know he's a he hasn't really you know played to the standard that we were hoping for here you know after his breakout 2019 campaign but he's had

moments here where he's gotten hot a little bit, even though most of the year has been pretty terrible for him at the plate. He still had some power. We know that that's there. Usually when it's these big moments from guys who don't typically pop, it's a home run. And in the postseason, it's a big home run. It's a big, you know, double in the gap, etc. I feel like Tom Murphy could be that guy can can bring that as well. So, maybe those three guys for me are those possible surprise figures on this team for the postseason surprise postseason heroes if you will so you know the mariners didn't sweep the angels over the weekend had a really bad loss but they did what they ultimately needed to do and that was to win the series so now they started three game set with the a's and then they wrap up the series the season with a three game set against the series the Angels once again. They're not going to see Shohei Otani pitch in that series.

That's confirmed. He's had his last start. But, you know, what realistically, you know, what do you think the Mariners need to do just with what's in their control to make the postseason? Do they have to run the table here from here on out? Sure feels like it. Yeah. The sweep of the Red Sox really hurt. And, you know, at the end of the day, Seattle is where they were on Friday.

There are two games back with one game, one game to make up on Toronto. Unfortunately for Seattle, New York gets the sweep. So now there are three games back of New York. And New York is the one that we thought maybe could struggle because they get Toronto and Tampa to in their year. So whereas Boston gets, you know, the Orioles and the nationals. So, yeah. you probably do need to run the table here. There's some scenarios where you go five and one

and you can force some kind of playoff or play in game to get into the playoff game. But it feels like six and no is necessary. Again, at five and one, the Yankees or the Blue Jays are going to lose at least two games in the next three days. As for who you want that to be, I don't know, right?

It's kind of tough. I feel like you kind of have to root for the Blue Jays to sweep in a way. Well, the Blue Jays sweep, then they would be two games up on the Yankees, depending on what the Red Sox do. But you need to keep in as long as you keep pace, then you would still be a game behind them, and then you would need the Orioles to come through with just one win to tie. Then you'd be a game ahead of New York,

assuming you, you sweep too. You sleep as well. Yeah. You'd be a game ahead of New York, and then you're a two games. back of Boston right now so you kind of would need Boston to lose two or three. Yeah, you're kind of, I mean, of course, the, or the Blue Jays also finished the year with the Orioles. So yeah, if Boston had won or swept that series, then you probably could,

you probably have an okay shot at four and two, but more than likely needing five and one to get in. But now I think you need to go six and oh. And I, even if you do that, I don't know if that's going to be enough to force a play in game, let alone, you know, get to the wild card game. we'll see what happens you never know um these things are weird and then the orials do have some good players and and you know they are capable of winning games sometimes so maybe get lucky in the nationals you know maybe wonsoto goes nuts and then josh bell kind of helps out and maybe they can pull something off there but yeah i think six no is josh bell that is it's a weird way to say kyle schwarber but uh yeah i feel like

I feel like, yeah, you kind of have to go 6 and 0 to have a good shot. And it's going to be really annoying if they go 5 and 1 and they win, you know, 91 games and they don't make the playoffs. But, you know, those are the breaks. Yeah. And hey, 91 games is incredible for this team. 90 is incredible for this team. 89 is incredible for this team. Hell, where they're at right now is incredible for where this team was supposed to be.

So that's pretty fun. And, hey, you know, after we pretty much wrote them off after the Red Sox series to be standing here on September 27th and talking about, hey, there's still a chance, that's pretty cool. So this was a fun exercise to do. That's going to do it for today's show. Thank you so much for joining us here on Locked-on Mariners and making us your first listen of the day for Colby Patnode. I'm Tadayn-Gonzalez. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L-O- underscore Mariners. You can follow me at Dane Gonzalez, that's D-A-N-E, G-N-Z-L-Z, and Colby at C-P-P-E-P-A-T-1-C.

Colby's also given away two tickets to the Mariners Angels game on Saturday on our other Twitter account at Control the Zone. There will be a link to that in the description of this episode, along with all of our other information. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day, and we'll see you tomorrow. Betting on Major League Baseball doesn't have to be a guessing game. If you listen to the new Lockdown Betts podcast hosted by your boy Q and handicapped. an expert Lee Sterling. Get daily picks, blowout specials, wrong team favorite picks, and Lee Sterling's lock of the day. Follow the Lockdown Betts podcast brought to you by betonline. org, wherever you get podcasts.